1. Yemen National Food Security Strategy and Directions
for Future Research and Policy Support
Merna Hassan & Olivier Ecker
Yemen Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation
International Food Policy Research Institute
IFPRI-UNESCWA Conference: Food Secure Arab World—A Roadmap for Policy & Research
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Beirut, 6-7 February 2012

2. Yemen National Food Security Strategy:
A Encouraging Collaboration
between Policy and Research
Merna Hassan
National Food Security Committee
Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation

3. General Overview
 The National Food Security Strategy (NFSS) was developed by the
Government of Yemen in collaboration with IFPRI.
 Motivation to commission the NFSS study:
a) The impacts of the 2008 food price crisis and the following global economic
recession appeared to be particularly severe in Yemen.
b) Yemen has been facing major domestic challenges for food security (incl.
lack of job-creating growth, high oil dependence, costly fuel subsidies, high
budget deficit, inefficient social transfer system, rapidly depleting oil and
water resources, growing qat consumption, widespread malnutrition).
 Principal: MOPIC, with financial support of the EC
 Coordination by the inter-ministerial Food Security Committee (FSC),
in consultation with international development partners
 Project period: Mar 2009 – Dec 2010
 The NFSS was endorsed by the Ministerial Committee in Dec 2010 and
adopted by the Parliament in Jan 2011.

4. Consultative Process and Rigorous Analysis:
From Priority Areas to a 7-Point Action Plan
 Intensive dialogue between food security-related ministries (MOPIC,
MOF, MOIT, MOPHP, MOAI, MOWE, MOFW), governmental agencies
(SWF, SFD, CSO) and international development organizations (EC, GTZ,
World Bank, WFP, UNICEF, FAO, IFAD, JICA) during regular FSC meetings
 Four MOPIC-IFPRI workshops (plus several technical meetings) in Sanaa
to present and discuss research questions, findings, and policy
implications; all attended by several national ministers
 Two IFPRI field trips with expert and target group interviews
 These consultations combined with rigorous analysis of Yemen’s food
security challenges and review of existing sector strategies revealed 18
priority areas for policy action.
 A comprehensive and innovative model and complementary analysis
helped to identify and rank seven concrete policy actions of highest
priority and assess their food security impacts.

5. NFSS: Vision, Objectives, Instruments
THE VISION: All Yemeni people have access to sufficient and nutritious
food at all times to live an active and healthy life—i.e. all people are food
secure.
THE OBJECTIVES against which success will be judged and progress will be
monitored are:
1. To cut food insecurity by one-third by 2015
2. To reach “moderate” food security levels by 2020—to make 90 percent
of the population food secure
3. To sharply reduce child malnutrition—by at least one percentage point
per annum
THE INSTRUMENTS to reach these goals are:
 Decisive policies
 Targeted investments
 Smart programs

6. NFSS: 7-Point Action Plan
To reach Yemen’s food security objectives a combination of individual
policy reforms, investments, and programs is essential.
The required actions are:
1. Leverage the fuel subsidy reform to promote food security
2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private
investments in promising sectors
3. Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural
development
4. Enforce competition among cereal importers and consider physical
grain storage for emergencies
5. Implement the water sector strategy decisively
6. Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve
service provision, especially in rural areas
7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy
nutrition, and women’s empowerment

7. Selected Findings of the Yemen National
Food Security Strategy and Future Research
Olivier Ecker
Development Strategy and Governance Division
International Food Policy Research Institute

8. The State of Food Security in Yemen
 Growing food import dependence Prevalence of undernourishment
(% of total pop.)
(food imports: >15% of total
exports)
 Widespread undernourishment
(32% = 7.5m), especially in rural
areas (37%)
 Extremely high levels of child
malnutrition (stunting: 59%) Number of undernourished people
(1 dot = 500 people)
 How can economic growth
improve food security, at which
level, and by how much?
 Which policy reforms are suited to
generate such growth?
 Which investments and programs
are needed in addition?
Source: Ecker et al. 2010. “Assessing Food Security in Yemen.” IFPRI DP 982.

9. An Integrative Approach for Food Security Analysis
Source: Ecker & Breisinger. “The Food
Security System.” Forthcoming 2012.

10. Macro-Micro Modeling Framework
IFPRI Dynamic CGE Model Nutrition Models
Economic production HH incomes
Parametric regressions:
Wages, rents,
profits Urban/ N = f(Y, P, D)
Agriculture Factor markets Rural
Industry
Commodity markets
Production Consumption
Farm/
Services Foreign trade Nonfarm
Taxes Foreign markets/
Spending countries
and market
policies Expenditure Estimated
Foreign aid
Taxes and change (‘shock’) coefficients
Public sector/ social policies
government
Public
investment and
Productivity/technology macro policies
Foreign Private
investment investment
Human/physical capital
Nutrition outcomes Prediction

11. Industry and Service Sector-Led Growth
6
Scenario: Growth – change from baseline (% points)
5
Promotion of growth in
‘promising sectors’ (food 4
processing, non- 3
National GDP Hydrocarbon
hydrocarbon mining, 2 Agriculture Industry
Services
tourism, transportation, 1
communication) through 0
improved business climate 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
Results: Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points)
0
 High GDP growth
-2
 Substantial reduction in -4
undernourishment, -6
National
especially in rural areas -8 Rural farm
 Minor improvement in -10 Rural nonfarm
Urban
child nutrition -12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.

12. Agricultural Policy Reform
3
Scenario: Growth – change from baseline (% points)
Promotion of non-qat 2
agricultural productivity
growth through investments 1
(especially in coffee and
0
wheat value chains) National GDP Hydrocarbon Agriculture
Industry Services
financed by qat taxation -1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Results:
2
 Modest GDP growth Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points)
 Significant reduction in 0
undernourishment, -2
especially among -4
National
farmers Rural farm
Rural nonfarm
-6
 Minor improvement in Urban
child nutrition -8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.

13. Ways Forward: ‘Costs’ of Yemen’s Conflicts
 In Yemen, the Arab Awakening and other conflicts
created major opportunities but have been also
associated with substantial losses in economic growth
and household income earnings.
 While ongoing studies focus only on the immediate loss
in GDP and disruption of investments, we plan to analyze
the impacts on development, poverty, and food security
in the medium and long term.
 The analysis will build on the NFSS study and provide
detailed data of the conflict impacts differentiated by the
type of conflict and the population affected.

14. IFPRI-MOPIC Products from NFSS Research
 NFSS documents (Part I & II)
 NFSS briefs: Action Plan
& Overview of Elements
 IFPRI Discussion Papers (982, 1036)
 Digital Food Security Atlas for Yemen
Available online:
http://www.ifpri.org/publications