Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
1) The editorial discusses recent economic developments and provides investment recommendations.
2) It notes that the US and Canadian economies are recovering slowly, Europe continues to struggle with debt problems, and China is slowing after years of tightening.
3) The editorial recommends a core portfolio of high-yielding stocks like REITs, utilities, telecoms and pipelines, along with growing companies in various sectors for higher risk.
US update - No recession but slower growthNordea Bank
While the US economy looks healthier in the near term, growth is expected to slow in the first half of 2012 due to headwinds from Europe's financial crisis and fiscal restraint in the US. The US faces recession risks primarily from external shocks like a worsening of the Euro crisis. US exposure to Europe through trade and banking represents a significant threat, though a mild Euro recession alone likely won't cause a US recession. Persistent domestic headwinds like high unemployment and limited household savings will also restrain growth. The report forecasts US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011-2012 and 2.6% in 2013, with unemployment remaining around 9%.
Based on proprietary data and analytic insight, this report gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on gloal business conditions for the first half of 2012.
1) The Canadian economic growth forecast for 2011 has been modestly increased to 2.6% due to an improved U.S. economic outlook and expectations that the Bank of Canada interest rate will remain low for longer.
2) Near-term consumer spending growth is expected to be bolstered by sustained low interest rates, though high household indebtedness means spending growth will moderate to a more sustainable pace once rates begin to rise again.
3) Residential investment is expected to be a soft spot for the Canadian economy as housing demand remains soft and inventory remains elevated, dampening construction activity over 2011.
The document summarizes recent trends in the US bond and stock markets, and discusses their implications. It notes the large and growing US budget deficits and debt levels, which are projected to exceed 100% of GDP. It also discusses concerns around failed government bond auctions, China reducing its Treasury holdings, and potential problems in the US housing market that could lead to another taxpayer bailout.
Mid year outlook market perspectives july 2012 finalRankia
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2012. It discusses that the global economy remains in a slow recovery threatened by the ongoing European crisis. The US economy is expected to continue modest growth of around 2% for the rest of the year. However, risks include the potential "fiscal cliff" facing the US and uncertainty around resolving Europe's banking and debt issues, which could trigger a global recession if not addressed. The outlook remains cautious given these geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
LPL Financial Research Second Quarter 2012 Market Insightchrisphil
The document provides an overview of market performance in the second quarter of 2012. Some key points:
- Stocks fell from the start of the quarter due to concerns over the European fiscal crisis and slowing global growth. The S&P 500 lost 2.8% for the quarter.
- Bonds fared better than stocks, with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index returning 2.1% for the quarter. Safe haven buying amid the European crisis and global growth fears pushed yields lower.
- Commodities lost nearly 5% for the quarter on global growth fears and a strong US dollar, wiping out modest first quarter gains. Crude oil dropped nearly 20% for the quarter.
1) The editorial discusses recent economic developments and provides investment recommendations.
2) It notes that the US and Canadian economies are recovering slowly, Europe continues to struggle with debt problems, and China is slowing after years of tightening.
3) The editorial recommends a core portfolio of high-yielding stocks like REITs, utilities, telecoms and pipelines, along with growing companies in various sectors for higher risk.
US update - No recession but slower growthNordea Bank
While the US economy looks healthier in the near term, growth is expected to slow in the first half of 2012 due to headwinds from Europe's financial crisis and fiscal restraint in the US. The US faces recession risks primarily from external shocks like a worsening of the Euro crisis. US exposure to Europe through trade and banking represents a significant threat, though a mild Euro recession alone likely won't cause a US recession. Persistent domestic headwinds like high unemployment and limited household savings will also restrain growth. The report forecasts US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011-2012 and 2.6% in 2013, with unemployment remaining around 9%.
Based on proprietary data and analytic insight, this report gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on gloal business conditions for the first half of 2012.
1) The Canadian economic growth forecast for 2011 has been modestly increased to 2.6% due to an improved U.S. economic outlook and expectations that the Bank of Canada interest rate will remain low for longer.
2) Near-term consumer spending growth is expected to be bolstered by sustained low interest rates, though high household indebtedness means spending growth will moderate to a more sustainable pace once rates begin to rise again.
3) Residential investment is expected to be a soft spot for the Canadian economy as housing demand remains soft and inventory remains elevated, dampening construction activity over 2011.
The document summarizes recent trends in the US bond and stock markets, and discusses their implications. It notes the large and growing US budget deficits and debt levels, which are projected to exceed 100% of GDP. It also discusses concerns around failed government bond auctions, China reducing its Treasury holdings, and potential problems in the US housing market that could lead to another taxpayer bailout.
Mid year outlook market perspectives july 2012 finalRankia
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2012. It discusses that the global economy remains in a slow recovery threatened by the ongoing European crisis. The US economy is expected to continue modest growth of around 2% for the rest of the year. However, risks include the potential "fiscal cliff" facing the US and uncertainty around resolving Europe's banking and debt issues, which could trigger a global recession if not addressed. The outlook remains cautious given these geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
LPL Financial Research Second Quarter 2012 Market Insightchrisphil
The document provides an overview of market performance in the second quarter of 2012. Some key points:
- Stocks fell from the start of the quarter due to concerns over the European fiscal crisis and slowing global growth. The S&P 500 lost 2.8% for the quarter.
- Bonds fared better than stocks, with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index returning 2.1% for the quarter. Safe haven buying amid the European crisis and global growth fears pushed yields lower.
- Commodities lost nearly 5% for the quarter on global growth fears and a strong US dollar, wiping out modest first quarter gains. Crude oil dropped nearly 20% for the quarter.
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in August 2012. It notes that economic growth slowed in many countries during the second quarter and leading indicators suggest further weakness. Monetary and fiscal policies have limited ability to boost growth. Emerging markets, which account for most global growth, face structural challenges and may see slower potential growth as investor risk appetite declines. Overall the global economic outlook remains fragile.
Will Europe be able to circle the wagons? (third party)José Ricaurte Jaen
- The document provides an asset allocation perspective from J.P. Morgan on global markets in May 2012.
- Political risks in Europe have increased, forcing a reduction in long equity positions while maintaining credit exposure.
- Weaker Chinese economic data has led to a reduction in the Q2 growth forecast from 7.8% to 7%. Global growth forecasts remain unchanged.
- Near-term downside risks exist, but signals over 3-6 months remain positive, suggesting maintaining upside exposure to equities and credit while keeping overall tactical risk below average.
The document analyzes economic conditions in several countries. For the United States, it notes that private sector deleveraging has depressed demand, reflecting a collateral crisis in housing and shadow banking. However, the recovery in housing prices may allow households to finish reducing debt levels and make credit demand more responsive to policy, helping the economy break out of a liquidity trap.
- Grim prospects for world economy
- Premature fiscal austerity in developed countries is hampering recovery
- Developing countries remain vulnerable to downturns in the developed economies
First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13Ankur Pandey
The Reserve Bank of India document provides an overview of the state of the global and domestic economies. Globally, growth is slowing down across major advanced and emerging economies. In the euro area, risks remain from the fiscal and financial stability issues. Domestically, GDP growth is decelerating while inflation remains high. Monsoon rainfall so far has been below average.
India’s rupee has been the worst performing currency in Asia, excluding Japanese yen since August 2011. It declined by nearly 22% from August 2011 to December 2011. Although the currency stabilized somewhat in February 2012 after the intervention from Reserve Bank of India, the pain seems far from over. Given the macro-economic situation, both domestically and globally, we might see further depreciation in rupee and we might have to adjust ourselves with lower levels of currency in times to come.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
This document provides a summary of recent economic and market events from around the world. It discusses issues in Europe including the need for a pan-European banking union and ongoing problems in Spain and Greece. It also mentions slowing growth in China and the US, as well as actions the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may take in response. The editorial recommends Bombardier Inc. as a buy based on its attractive valuation and potential for growth.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the Indian stock market and recommends "buy" ratings for several stocks. It discusses the recovery of the global and Indian economies from recession, and predicts continued growth in India and other developing economies. It then analyzes the long-term bullish outlook for the Nifty index based on a technical pattern and sets a target of 6,400 levels. The remainder summarizes investment recommendations for several companies across sectors, providing buy ratings and 12-month price targets for each.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in January 2011. It finds that while the global recovery continues, growth prospects have dimmed slightly from 2010's strong rebound. Rising commodity prices and inflation are creating risks. Inflation is a growing threat, forcing companies to cut costs and limiting job and economic growth. Emerging economies continue to power the recovery, while developed nations struggle with debt and budget consolidation.
- After positive returns in the first three quarters of 2011, global markets saw negative returns in the second quarter due to normal volatility, though prospects for economic recession remain remote.
- While economic growth has slowed globally, it is still positive and temporary factors like disruptions from Japan's disasters and commodity price rises have contributed; leading indicators remain positive.
- European sovereign debt issues continue regarding some countries' debt levels and management, but efforts to address problems have been taken and debt is still seen as manageable.
- Outlook remains positive for continued growth in the second half of 2011 and beyond, though expect continued short-term market volatility; long-term discipline and diversification are recommended.
The document discusses market performance in 2012, noting that despite fears over issues like the European debt crisis, the U.S. stock market gained 16% last year. It was surprised by the magnitude of gains given headwinds. U.S. interest rates also declined contrary to expectations. Most European markets gained in 2012, with some significantly outperforming the U.S. The document provides a report card on economic and market data from 2010-2012, noting improvements in areas like corporate earnings, unemployment, and housing while commodity prices have cooled. Valuation metrics imply stocks remain relatively attractive versus bonds.
QNB’s expects global outlook to be gloomier than the OECDQNB Group
QNB expects a gloomier global economic outlook than the OECD forecasts. The OECD forecasts modest global growth of 3.4% in 2012, led by the US at 2.4%, but QNB sees downside risks from a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone and weak recent economic data. A Greek exit could increase fears about other troubled Eurozone countries like Spain. Additionally, recent data shows weakness in the US, China, India and other global economies. QNB believes the Eurozone crisis and its impact on the world economy will continue intensifying unless governments take significant policy actions to stimulate growth and stabilize the situation.
What happens if the us credit rating is downgraded 7.22.2021 - Kurt S. Altric...Kurt S. Altrichter
1) The US government debt level of nearly $30 trillion poses risks even though low interest rates have kept debt servicing costs low currently. The upcoming expiration of the debt ceiling raises the possibility of a downgrade in the US credit rating or a technical default.
2) A credit downgrade or hitting the debt ceiling without a resolution could negatively impact risk assets, as occurred in 2011. Investors should take a longer term view and pay attention to weakening economic fundamentals rather than just focusing on record high stock markets.
3) The options available to address the growing debt problem like raising taxes or interest rates all carry risks for either the economy, financial markets or the US dollar. The government appears backed into a corner with
This global economic outlook gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on global business conditions. Based on its proprietary data and analytic insight, the outlook reviews business conditions for 2012 and gives insight on what to expect for 2013.
SmithStreetSolutions has broken down the US and China stimulus packages into ten spending categories in order to compare and analyze their effects. Our research shows that both packages will help bring global recovery by promoting trade. Additionally, China has seized the opportunity to use its package to advance two key long-term development goals, upgrading manufacturing and opening up its rural and western markets, that are critical milestones in the transition from ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’.
Deutsche Bank is a leading global investment bank with operations in over 70 countries. It offers a full range of financial services to corporate and individual clients. Deutsche Bank aims to be a leading global provider of financial solutions and create lasting value for its stakeholders. It has strong regional diversification with substantial revenue from major world regions. Deutsche Bank continues to invest in talent, technology, and social responsibility to build on its long-term success.
Publicly available General Introduction to Deutsche Bank Quality of Life Mark...Guillermo MacLean
Deutsche Bank is developing Quality of Life Markets and index-linked securities to increase funding and resources for ambitious social goals. The document discusses two examples - reducing global infant mortality and increasing access to sanitation. It outlines the challenges, desired outcomes, and status of developing these Quality of Life Markets to complement existing efforts and significantly increase the odds of achieving the goals.
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in August 2012. It notes that economic growth slowed in many countries during the second quarter and leading indicators suggest further weakness. Monetary and fiscal policies have limited ability to boost growth. Emerging markets, which account for most global growth, face structural challenges and may see slower potential growth as investor risk appetite declines. Overall the global economic outlook remains fragile.
Will Europe be able to circle the wagons? (third party)José Ricaurte Jaen
- The document provides an asset allocation perspective from J.P. Morgan on global markets in May 2012.
- Political risks in Europe have increased, forcing a reduction in long equity positions while maintaining credit exposure.
- Weaker Chinese economic data has led to a reduction in the Q2 growth forecast from 7.8% to 7%. Global growth forecasts remain unchanged.
- Near-term downside risks exist, but signals over 3-6 months remain positive, suggesting maintaining upside exposure to equities and credit while keeping overall tactical risk below average.
The document analyzes economic conditions in several countries. For the United States, it notes that private sector deleveraging has depressed demand, reflecting a collateral crisis in housing and shadow banking. However, the recovery in housing prices may allow households to finish reducing debt levels and make credit demand more responsive to policy, helping the economy break out of a liquidity trap.
- Grim prospects for world economy
- Premature fiscal austerity in developed countries is hampering recovery
- Developing countries remain vulnerable to downturns in the developed economies
First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13Ankur Pandey
The Reserve Bank of India document provides an overview of the state of the global and domestic economies. Globally, growth is slowing down across major advanced and emerging economies. In the euro area, risks remain from the fiscal and financial stability issues. Domestically, GDP growth is decelerating while inflation remains high. Monsoon rainfall so far has been below average.
India’s rupee has been the worst performing currency in Asia, excluding Japanese yen since August 2011. It declined by nearly 22% from August 2011 to December 2011. Although the currency stabilized somewhat in February 2012 after the intervention from Reserve Bank of India, the pain seems far from over. Given the macro-economic situation, both domestically and globally, we might see further depreciation in rupee and we might have to adjust ourselves with lower levels of currency in times to come.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
This document provides a summary of recent economic and market events from around the world. It discusses issues in Europe including the need for a pan-European banking union and ongoing problems in Spain and Greece. It also mentions slowing growth in China and the US, as well as actions the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may take in response. The editorial recommends Bombardier Inc. as a buy based on its attractive valuation and potential for growth.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the Indian stock market and recommends "buy" ratings for several stocks. It discusses the recovery of the global and Indian economies from recession, and predicts continued growth in India and other developing economies. It then analyzes the long-term bullish outlook for the Nifty index based on a technical pattern and sets a target of 6,400 levels. The remainder summarizes investment recommendations for several companies across sectors, providing buy ratings and 12-month price targets for each.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document summarizes the state of the global economy in January 2011. It finds that while the global recovery continues, growth prospects have dimmed slightly from 2010's strong rebound. Rising commodity prices and inflation are creating risks. Inflation is a growing threat, forcing companies to cut costs and limiting job and economic growth. Emerging economies continue to power the recovery, while developed nations struggle with debt and budget consolidation.
- After positive returns in the first three quarters of 2011, global markets saw negative returns in the second quarter due to normal volatility, though prospects for economic recession remain remote.
- While economic growth has slowed globally, it is still positive and temporary factors like disruptions from Japan's disasters and commodity price rises have contributed; leading indicators remain positive.
- European sovereign debt issues continue regarding some countries' debt levels and management, but efforts to address problems have been taken and debt is still seen as manageable.
- Outlook remains positive for continued growth in the second half of 2011 and beyond, though expect continued short-term market volatility; long-term discipline and diversification are recommended.
The document discusses market performance in 2012, noting that despite fears over issues like the European debt crisis, the U.S. stock market gained 16% last year. It was surprised by the magnitude of gains given headwinds. U.S. interest rates also declined contrary to expectations. Most European markets gained in 2012, with some significantly outperforming the U.S. The document provides a report card on economic and market data from 2010-2012, noting improvements in areas like corporate earnings, unemployment, and housing while commodity prices have cooled. Valuation metrics imply stocks remain relatively attractive versus bonds.
QNB’s expects global outlook to be gloomier than the OECDQNB Group
QNB expects a gloomier global economic outlook than the OECD forecasts. The OECD forecasts modest global growth of 3.4% in 2012, led by the US at 2.4%, but QNB sees downside risks from a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone and weak recent economic data. A Greek exit could increase fears about other troubled Eurozone countries like Spain. Additionally, recent data shows weakness in the US, China, India and other global economies. QNB believes the Eurozone crisis and its impact on the world economy will continue intensifying unless governments take significant policy actions to stimulate growth and stabilize the situation.
What happens if the us credit rating is downgraded 7.22.2021 - Kurt S. Altric...Kurt S. Altrichter
1) The US government debt level of nearly $30 trillion poses risks even though low interest rates have kept debt servicing costs low currently. The upcoming expiration of the debt ceiling raises the possibility of a downgrade in the US credit rating or a technical default.
2) A credit downgrade or hitting the debt ceiling without a resolution could negatively impact risk assets, as occurred in 2011. Investors should take a longer term view and pay attention to weakening economic fundamentals rather than just focusing on record high stock markets.
3) The options available to address the growing debt problem like raising taxes or interest rates all carry risks for either the economy, financial markets or the US dollar. The government appears backed into a corner with
This global economic outlook gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on global business conditions. Based on its proprietary data and analytic insight, the outlook reviews business conditions for 2012 and gives insight on what to expect for 2013.
SmithStreetSolutions has broken down the US and China stimulus packages into ten spending categories in order to compare and analyze their effects. Our research shows that both packages will help bring global recovery by promoting trade. Additionally, China has seized the opportunity to use its package to advance two key long-term development goals, upgrading manufacturing and opening up its rural and western markets, that are critical milestones in the transition from ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’.
Deutsche Bank is a leading global investment bank with operations in over 70 countries. It offers a full range of financial services to corporate and individual clients. Deutsche Bank aims to be a leading global provider of financial solutions and create lasting value for its stakeholders. It has strong regional diversification with substantial revenue from major world regions. Deutsche Bank continues to invest in talent, technology, and social responsibility to build on its long-term success.
Publicly available General Introduction to Deutsche Bank Quality of Life Mark...Guillermo MacLean
Deutsche Bank is developing Quality of Life Markets and index-linked securities to increase funding and resources for ambitious social goals. The document discusses two examples - reducing global infant mortality and increasing access to sanitation. It outlines the challenges, desired outcomes, and status of developing these Quality of Life Markets to complement existing efforts and significantly increase the odds of achieving the goals.
Deutsche Bank es un banco internacional líder fundado en 1870 en Berlín. Tiene presencia en 75 países con más de 77,000 empleados y 13 millones de clientes. Deutsche Bank se estableció en España en 1889 y ha crecido para convertirse en uno de los principales bancos extranjeros en el país, con más de 500 oficinas y 2,000 empleados en España. El banco ofrece una variedad de servicios bancarios a clientes privados y empresas, y mantiene un fuerte enfoque en la responsabilidad social corporativa.
[26.02.2008] The seminar paper about Deutsche bank, it contains information on the history, organisation structure, services and business structure, stocks and stockholders and other stakeholders; employees and clients.
Alistair Hicks - Directions of Collecting Contemporary Art, experience of Deu...guestaff687
The document lists the names of various artists and artworks on display at Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, including Nedko Solokov's "Murmurings #1-12, 2007", works by Cao Fei, Amy Cutler, Anni Leppala, Ivan Grubanov, Carlos Garaicoa, Yane Calovski, Pablo Bronstein, Zwelethu Mthethwa, Samuel Fosso, Camara, Maha Mamoun, Zineb Sedira, Paulina Olowska, and rooms decorated with works by Francis Bacon, Sigmund Freud, Gillian Ayres, Caro Niederer, Susan Derges, and Annelies Strba. Works
Fintech - Presentation by Dr. Markus Pertlwieser, CDO Private, Wealth & Commercial Clients of Deutsche Bank at the Axel Springer NOAH Conference Berlin 2016, Tempodrom on the 8th of June 2016.
This document provides an overview of Deutsche Bank, including:
- It is a global financial company founded in 1870 and headquartered in Germany.
- It has over 100,000 employees with a presence in 75+ countries.
- The company offers corporate and retail banking services through divisions like corporate and investment banking, private banking, and asset management.
- In 2010, Deutsche Bank reported revenues of €28.6 billion and net income of €2.3 billion.
- The company aims to improve its retail operations, focus on client-driven businesses, and expand in developing markets going forward.
The document discusses the visions and missions of the top 100 companies on the Fortune Global 500 list. It provides examples of visions, which describe where companies want to go, and missions, which describe the purpose and goals of the companies. The visions generally focus on leadership, performance, and innovation, while the missions often discuss the products/services provided and benefits for customers, shareholders, and society.
The commercial real estate market is lagging behind the broader economic recovery. Job losses have been significantly sharper in this recession compared to previous ones, and it will likely take several years to regain the jobs lost. As a result, real estate fundamentals will remain weak for an extended period. Transaction data shows rising capitalization rates and spreads, reflecting the return of risk to commercial real estate pricing. Cap rates could remain high for 12-24 months or rise further if space market fundamentals remain weak. This would result in value declines of 40% or more from the combination of higher cap rates and deteriorating fundamentals. The recovery path for cap rates and values is uncertain but will ultimately depend on the pace of job growth and economic
The document provides an economic and financial market outlook for December 2010. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy has regained balance as growth fears subside. Emerging economies continue to drive growth, while advanced economies are recovering.
2) The US economy is gaining speed and the likelihood of a double-dip recession is now remote. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012 supported by business and consumer spending.
3) European sovereign debt issues pose ongoing risks but overall European growth is expected to continue, albeit at moderate levels of 1.7-1.9% through 2012.
The document summarizes the volatility in the stock market in 2011 and outlook for 2012. Key points:
- The S&P 500 ended 2011 unchanged from where it started, despite high daily volatility averaging 1% per day, a record.
- Factors that caused 2011 volatility like the worldwide sovereign debt crisis have not been resolved and may be exacerbated.
- Austerity measures in Greece have reduced growth needed to solve its debt crisis, and there is fear this may spread to other European nations.
- Political calls for austerity in the US may not help the economy like it does for families due to the paradox of thrift.
- 2012 is not expected to be less volatile than 2011, with
The Democratic sweep scenario assumes that if Democrats control the presidency and both houses of Congress after the election, the Bush tax cuts would be extended only for households earning less than $250,000 per year. This would result in a moderate reduction in the budget deficit over the next few years, falling from 7.3% of GDP in 2012 to 6.3% by 2013 and 5.3% by 2014. However, higher taxes on dividends and capital gains could reduce after-tax cash flows from equities, partially offsetting the benefits from less fiscal austerity. Municipal bonds may benefit from increased value of their tax breaks and smaller cuts to discretionary spending.
1) The US federal budget faces significant challenges, with high deficits and rising debt levels over the past decade due to economic shocks, wars, and stimulus spending.
2) At the end of 2012, major tax cuts are set to expire and spending cuts take effect, which could significantly reduce the deficit but may also harm the economy - this is known as the "fiscal cliff".
3) There are several potential scenarios after the election for addressing the budget issues, including letting the Bush tax cuts expire, focusing on spending cuts, or pursuing a gradual, balanced approach to deficit reduction known as a "fiscal ladder".
The document discusses the potential impacts of the 2012 US elections on investors and markets. It predicts that:
1) The US economy will grow about 2% in 2012 as soft sentiment and hard data continue converging.
2) The US stock market is likely to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, backed by mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth.
3) Corporate bonds will post modest single-digit gains and outperform government bonds.
It explores the election issues and their potential effects on different areas including the White House, Congress, the Federal Reserve, taxes, the budget, Wall Street sectors, and Europe. The outcomes of the elections could significantly influence policy decisions and market
Mid Year Outlook for 2012 by LPL Financial Research | What the elections hold for investors |
In LPL’s 2012 Outlook, they predicted that finding a middle ground, or Meeting in the Middle, was going to be key for growth in the markets and economy. In particular, they’ve highlighted a key characteristic of this year:
“Soft sentiment and hard data find middle ground, meaning that we see a convergence between facts and feelings. So far, this has been reflected in economic and market data. Notably, at this year’s midpoint, the gap between consumer confidence and leading economic indicators has narrowed about halfway.” -LPL
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries. It notes that while these economies have seen stronger growth than other advanced economies recently, global headwinds now pose policy challenges. Swedbank revises down its global GDP growth forecast for 2011-2013 to a range just below 4% due to slowing growth in the US and Eurozone and increased financial instability. It outlines three scenarios - a main 60% probability scenario of continued slow growth, and lower probability worse and better scenarios.
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/index.html
Threadneedle investments. perspectivas y visión general de los mercados en 20...Observatorio-Inverco
Sección del Observatorio Inverco con informes de mercado de las gestoras de fondos de inversión. Threadneedle Investments. Perspectivas y visión general de los mercados en 2013. Diciembre 2012.pdf
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The document provides an economic outlook and risk analysis for various regions globally. Some key points:
- Global economic growth is expected to remain slow at just over 2% in 2012-2013 due to headwinds from high OECD debt levels, China's economic slowdown, and ongoing issues in the eurozone.
- The outlook is most negative for Europe, where recessions are widespread and bank deleveraging is reducing lending. Payments performance and credit risk are expected to deteriorate significantly across the region.
- Growth is also slowing in emerging markets as exports to Europe and China decline. Exchange rate volatility from the eurozone crisis poses risks, and commodity producers are concerned about falling oil prices.
Swedbank's economic outlook report analyzes the economies of Sweden and the Baltic countries. It finds that while growth has been stronger than expected in 2012, it is expected to slow for the rest of the year due to a cooling global economy and recession in the euro area. Growth is projected to pick up again in 2014 as the global outlook gradually improves. Unemployment is expected to remain elevated, especially in Sweden. Downside risks to the outlook include a worsening of the euro area crisis or a hard economic landing in major economies like China.
The document provides an economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries from Swedbank. It summarizes that global growth is expected to be modest in 2012 but improve slightly in 2013. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, GDP growth in 2012 will range from 0.5-3.3% and increase to 2.1-4.3% in 2013. Unemployment is forecast to remain high but fall gradually. Risks include further instability in the euro area and volatility in commodity prices.
1) China's economic growth is slowing considerably, with the risk of a "hard landing" increased. GDP growth is projected to be just below 8% this year with moderate stimulus to counter the slowdown.
2) A hard landing in China's economy could have significant negative effects on the global economy as China accounts for around 50% of global growth. It would also impact financial, commodity, and trade markets.
3) Slower growth in China would negatively affect exporting countries and commodity prices, with countries like Germany, Japan, Sweden, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil feeling the effects. It could also cause turbulence in global financial markets.
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic economies. It identifies three scenarios for the eurozone crisis, with the main scenario foreseeing short-term volatility but progress over the long run. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2012-2013 due to recession in the eurozone and slow recovery in the US. Sweden and the Baltic countries will see weaker growth in 2012 as exports decline, but are still expected to see slight positive annual growth. The risks are weighted heavily to the downside, however, depending on actions taken in the eurozone crisis.
This document provides a summary of recent economic developments and risks. Key points include: risk appetite has revived in global markets but growth is slowing; US data shows continued recovery in employment, housing and manufacturing; China's leadership transition is complete; the US debt ceiling could pose problems in the summer; Cyprus received a bailout but its terms set a precedent for depositors to share losses in future bank bailouts.
The document provides a weekly market outlook from UBS. It notes that additional turbulence is expected in the coming week due to heavy economic data releases and policy uncertainty. However, equity markets appear oversold and may be poised for a modest relief rally. Any sustained recovery will require confirmation that the economic recovery is on track, earnings impacts are modest and transitory, and policy remains supportive of growth. The document also discusses the challenges facing monetary policymakers and expectations that additional stimulus is unlikely, meaning markets will need to find comfort with the existing policy mix.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
Latin America Risks And Opportunities - Jan 2012ibarraricardo
Key risks and opportunities in Latin America for 2012. This will include an overview of our global and regional views as well as our strategy for Financial Markets in Latin American & the Caribbean.
1. Contents
1 Global economy
2 Fixed income
3 Equities
4 FX and commodities
5 Investment forecasts
6 Important notes
Deutsche Bank 1
Private Wealth Management
3. The global economy
A tenuous and uneven recovery
World growth slowing ― The outlook for the world economy has
Contribution to growth, selected countries, % % change year over year deteriorated and we now expect 2.9% growth
this year and 3.1% in 2013, down almost half a
percent from previous estimates. Our 2014
global growth estimate is 3.8%.
― A slow recovery in the U.S., and the prospect of
the “fiscal cliff” at the end of 2012, brings our
GDP growth estimates 2.1% for this year and
1.9% for next year.
― We expect the Eurozone to bottom out in the
fourth quarter, but the outlook remains poor.
― Most emerging markets are likely to slow
because of weaker exports to developed
economies.
― With central banks redoubling their efforts to
Source: Haver Analytics; IMP; The Economist Estimates based on 52 countries representing support growth, we do not expect any interest
As of 10/9/2012 90% of world GDP. Weighted by GDP at
purchasing power parity
rate rises in the U.S. or Europe until 2015 at the
earliest.
Deutsche Bank 3
Private Wealth Management
4. U.S. growth intact, but fragile
Data surprise indicator:
― The U.S. is in a stronger position than other
The downward trend has reverted developed economies, but the looming fiscal cliff
0.4 could stop the economy dead in its tracks. Our
expectation is that Congress will find a way to
avoid this scenario, but not without some near-term
0.2 turmoil.
― While unemployment remains stubbornly high, the
0.0 7.9% number in the November 6 report was at
least psychologically important and may support
already rising consumer confidence.
-0.2
― The housing market continues to improve and we
-0.4 are seeing the end of consumer deleveraging.
-0.6
Jan 10 Sep 10 May 11 Jan 12 Sep 12
DB Macro Pulse Indicator (MPI) measures data surprises positive (negative) readings indicate data has been better (worse) than expected. Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank CIB Research.
Deutsche Bank 4
Private Wealth Management
5. The fiscal cliff remains a key uncertainty
We expect a compromise to reduce the impact ― If nothing is done to avert this crisis, the fiscal
adjustment in 2013 would be approximately 750
of the fiscal cliff to 1.5% of GDP
billion, or around 5% of GDP.
― We do expect that there will be a deal after the
election that reduces the impact to 1.5% of GDP.
― Risks include a recession in the first half of 2013 if
a deal does not materialize and a potential credit
downgrade if the spending cuts are not put into
place.
Deutsche Bank 5
Private Wealth Management
6. The Eurozone should resume modest growth in 2013
We expect Eurozone GDP to bottom out in Q4 with a ― The economic outlook remains very weak in the
modest rebound beginning Q1 2013 Eurozone with limited signs of a meaningful
recovery.
% qoq
― PMIs surprised to the downside in September
with a substantial drop in services, but a
moderate rise in manufacturing.
― There is considerable divergence between
countries:
– Germany PMIs rose to the highest level in
five months
– France weakened sharply
– The periphery weakened further
Source: Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research
Deutsche Bank 6
Private Wealth Management
7. Economic cycles in developed and emerging markets
becoming increasingly coupled
Correlation of growth cycles in the developed and ― Weakness in Europe and the U.S. has spilled
over to emerging markets during 2012, leading us
emerging markets
to mark down our growth forecasts for 2012 and
2013.
― Over the last decade emerging and developed
market economic cycles have become
increasingly coupled.
― Globalization, and the opening up of several
emerging countries to international trade, has
seen increased interdependence.
― Going forward, we expect growth in the emerging
markets to continue to outpace that of developed
markets. However, we expect growth rates lower
than those experienced in the previous decade.
Deutsche Bank 7
Private Wealth Management
9. Credit should continue to outperform Treasuries
Real yields on Treasuries are negative
― Treasury yields are likely to remain capped,
while credit should continue to outperform as
yield-oriented investors are increasingly willing
to assume more credit risk.
― As the Fed absorbs an increasing share of the
mortgage and Treasury markets, investors will
be effectively forced to move into higher-yielding
spread product.
― Additionally, we believe they will continue to
migrate into foreign markets, both developed
and emerging, looking for foreign currency gains
and higher-yielding bond markets.
10-Year Barclays Barclays Capital Merrill Lynch Credit Suisse JP Morgan
U.S. Capital U.S. Credit/ BBB Leveraged Domestic
Treasury U.S. Corporate Municipal Loan High
Aggregate Investment Bond Index Index* Yield Index
Bond Index Grade
Bond Index
*Implied yield calculated by adding the index option-adjusted spread to d-month LIBOR rate. Source: Barclays Capital, FactSet, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan 8/31/12. CPI as of 7/31/12.
Deutsche Bank 9
Private Wealth Management
10. Are high yield bonds compensating investors for the
additional risk?
Spreads on high yield bonds have come down ― Investors have been large buyers of high
yield bonds, driving prices up and yields
to more normal levels
below 7%.
2,000
1,800 ― The spread between the yield on junk bonds
1,600 and those on Treasuries is currently 5.61
percentage points, below its 15-year
1,400
average.1
1,200
1,000 ― However, with the Federal Reserve buying
800 bonds and pushing down yields on all fixed
income investments, high yield might
600
continue to do well, even if the opportunity for
400
price appreciation is limited.
200
0
Sep-97 Mar-00 Sep-02 Mar-05 Sep-07 Mar-10 Sep-12
U.S. High Yield Spreads (OAS) (15 YR Avg) U.S. High Yield Spreads (OAS)
1Bloomberg Finance LP 10/11/2012. Chart source: Factset as of 10/16/12.
Deutsche Bank 10
Private Wealth Management
11. Emerging market bonds remain attractive
USD denominated versus local currency ― Emerging market bond markets remain
denominated emerging market bonds attractive, even after strong performance
year-to-date.
― The major driver of EM local bond markets in
the first half of this year, declining interest
rates, is gradually fading. We expect currency
appreciation versus the USD to be the larger
contributor to returns for the remainder of the
year.
― However, even with no further interest rate
cuts, EM local bonds offer yields 4% higher
than U.S. Treasuries, with improving credit
quality.
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, JP Morgan Indices. Data as of 10/3/12.
Deutsche Bank 11
Private Wealth Management
13. U.S. equities: what is the appropriate P/E multiple
Economic growth and the impact on P/Es P/E versus “real” interest rates
25
18
Average P/E Given GDP 16.2 Average P/E Given Real 10 Year
16.0
16 Scenario Treasury Yields 19.9
20 18.4
13.9
14 13.4 13.1 17.0
12.3
12 14.5
15
Average P/E
12.9
12.0
Average P/E
10
10.9
8 10
6
4 5
2
0
0 Less than 0-1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5% or
Less than - -2% to 0% 0% to 2% 2% to 4% 4% - 6% 6% or More
2%
0% More
Real GDP (YoY) Real 10 Year Treasury Yield
Footnotes: Time period reflects 1Q48 to 2Q12. Footnotes: Time period reflects 1Q62 to 3Q12 using PCE Deflator.
Data Source: FactSet, Bureau of Economic Analysis Data Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, FactSet
― Historically, growth in the range of 0-2% suggests a P/ ― With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near negative
E of 14x. Using this multiple, we have set out year-end territory, history would suggest that there is limited
target for the S&P at 1425. In order to see meaningful room for P/E expansion.
P/E expansion, growth would have to be between
2-6%.
Deutsche Bank 13
Private Wealth Management
14. An improved outlook for European equities
European equity valuations ― The outlook for European equities is improving as
Eurozone fears are receding and risks appear
largely priced in.
MSCI Europe ex-UK P/E (NTM)
― Government bonds of core countries offer
negative real yields so the impetus to rotate into
stocks in Europe, as the outlook stabilizes,
should be supportive.
― Doubts over issues such as a slowdown in
economic growth in China and the political
situation in the United States would prompt
investors to stay cautious on Europe near term,
but the longer-term outlook remains somewhat
positive.
.
Source: FactSet 10/23/12
Deutsche Bank 14
Private Wealth Management
15. Chinese equities becoming more attractive
Inflation pressure in China remains in check ― The Chinese economy appears to be heading
toward a soft landing. With the possibility for
additional monetary policy easing and further
CPI YoY% stimulus, we expect a rebound as we head into
2013.
― Inflation levels remained above 2% since
February 2010 and peaked in July 2011 at 6.5%.
― China’s equity markets lagged broad emerging
and developed markets through 3Q12. Improved
growth and policy easing have made China more
attractive from an investment perspective.
Source: FactSet
Deutsche Bank 15
Private Wealth Management
17. Is China a currency manipulator?
U.S. dollar / Yuan 2004-2012 ― A number of economists have questioned
Yuan is pegged
whether China's exchange rate policies versus
8.5 at 8.3 the U.S. and its use of U.S. dollar reserves
per dollar
can be considered "predatory"—designed to
8 depress the value of the Yuan and push cheap
Yuan Chinese goods into U.S. markets.
depegged /
7.5 +/- 0.3%
trading band ― Many U.S. policymakers have called for China
to wean itself off export dependence and build
7
up domestic consumption to correct the global
Trading band
widened to +/- imbalances that drew so many U.S. dollars to
6.5 0.5% China in the first place.
Trading band
6 widened to +/-
1.0%
5.5
Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12
Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets
Deutsche Bank 17
Private Wealth Management
18. Precious metals should continue to perform well
Global gold mine supply by country (2011) ― We expect gold prices to strengthen further.
Extreme monetary ease in the developed
economies should provide strong support.
― In addition, we expect inflows into physically
backed ETFs to accelerate again as the U.S.
dollar tends to display seasonal weakness in
December.
― Supply constraints are becoming a larger
issue for the gold mining industry, particularly
given the labor disruptions which have been
growing in South Africa. As of the end of Q3
2012, the country had closed down
approximately 39% of its gold mines.
Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets
Deutsche Bank 18
Private Wealth Management
19. Economic and asset class forecasts
Deutsche Bank
Private Wealth Management
20. Global Investment Committee Forecasts
as of December 2012*
GDP Growth Key Interest Rates Current* 3-Month 12-Month
2012 2013 2014
in % Forecast Forecast
World 2.9% 3.1% 3.8% USA (Fed funds) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
USA 2.1% 1.9% 3.1% Euroland (Refi rate) 0.75% 0.50% 0.50%
Euroland -0.4% -0.2% 1.1% UK (Repo rate) 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
UK -0.3% 1.0% 1.8% Japan (Money market rate) 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Japan 1.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Asia ex Japan 6.1% 6.7% 6.9%
Latin America 2.9% 3.9% 4.0% Currencies Current* 3-Month 12-Month
EMEA 3.0% 3.6% 4.0% Forecast Forecast
EUR/USD 1.30 1.32 1.25
Inflation (CPI) USD/JPY 82.12 83.00 86.00
2012 2013 2014
in % EUR/CHF 1.20 1.20 1.20
USA 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% GBP/USD 1.60 1.60 1.57
Euroland 2.5% 1.8% 1.7% EUR/GBP 0.81 0.83 0.80
UK 2.8% 2.3% 1.9%
Japan -0.1% -0.6% 1.7%
Asia ex Japan 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% Commodities Current* 3-Month 12-Month
Latin America 7.8% 7.8% 8.2% Forecast Forecast
EMEA 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% Oil (WTI) in USD 88 100 100
Gold in USD 1750 1800 1900
Current Account Balance
2012 2013 2014
in % of GDP
USA -3.2% -3.5% -3.6% Equities Current* Dividend P/E 3-Month 12-Month
Euroland 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% Yield (LTM)** Forecast Forecast
UK -2.3% -2.1% -1.8% USA (S&P 500) 1406 2.2% 13.0 1445 1500
Japan 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% Euroland (Euro Stoxx 50) 2543 4.4% 10.1 2550 2700
Asia ex Japan 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% Germany (DAX) 7292 3.5% 10.3 7350 8050
Latin America -1.1% -1.3% -1.4% UK (FTSE 100) 5787 3.8% 10.7 5930 6060
EMEA 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% Japan (Nikkei) 9389 2.0% 16.0 9400 10000
Asia ex Japan (MSCI in USD) 522 2.6% 11.0 535 595
Latin America (MSCI in USD) 3582 3.3% 11.8 3810 3960
Fiscal Balance
2012 2013 2014
in % of GDP Sovereign Rates Country 3-Month 12-Month
Current*
USA -7.2% -6.3% -5.3% CDS Forecast Forecast
Euroland -3.2% -2.6% -2.0% USA 1.67% 38.9 1.75% 2.25%
UK -7.1% -7.2% -5.4% Euroland (German Bund) 1.41% 54.7 1.60% 2.00%
Japan -10.0% -9.8% -7.8% UK 1.84% 51.7 1.75% 2.40%
Asia ex Japan -2.9% -2.8% -2.3% Japan 0.74% 79.5 0.75% 1.25%
Latin America -2.2% -1.9% -1.9%
EMEA -0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
Data Source: FactSet, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Global Investment Committee forecasts as of GIC meeting on November 26, 2012.
*Current as of November 26, 2012. **LTM stands for last 12 months.
20
21. Benjamin A. Pace III
Managing Director
Benjamin Pace is Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Investment Solutions for
Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in the U.S. In his role as CIO, he sits on the
PWM Global Investment Committee, providing input on the U.S. economy and capital
markets. He oversees the investment strategy and asset allocation for PWM clients in the
U.S. As Head of Global Investment Solutions, he brings together PWM’s capital markets
and investment capabilities in an effort to provide an effective and consistent experience
for clients. Mr. Pace is a member of the PWM – U.S. Executive Committee.
Mr. Pace has more than 25 years of experience in investment management. Prior to
joining Deutsche Bank in 1994, he managed equity income funds for two investment
organizations. During his tenure with those institutions, he also served as a securities
analyst with particular emphasis on the financial services and healthcare industries.
Mr. Pace earned his B.A. in economics from Columbia University and M.B.A. in finance
from New York University.
He can be reached at (212) 454-7815 or e-mailed at benjamin.pace@db.com.
Deutsche Bank 21
Private Wealth Management
22. Important notes
This document has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction
relating to the products and services described herein. Before entering into any transaction, you should take steps to ensure that you understand and have made an independent
assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in light of your own particular financial, legal and tax situation, investment objectives and level of risk tolerance, and you should consult
your legal and tax advisers to determine how these products and/or services may affect you.
Investments in Foreign Countries - Such investments may be in countries that prove to be politically or economically unstable. Furthermore, in the case of investments in foreign securities
or other assets, any fluctuations in currency exchange rates will affect the value of the investments and any restrictions imposed to prevent capital flight may make it difficult or impossible to
exchange or repatriate foreign currency.
Emerging Markets - Such markets may be in transitional or formative stages and thus may be significantly less stable than developed markets. Changes in emerging markets government
structures or other political instability may result in nationalization, expropriation, ad hoc regulation, or foreign investment restrictions. Emerging market investments are at risk for currency
devaluation, as well as convertibility, liquidity and transparency constraints. The high volatility and speculative nature of emerging market investments may result in both significant losses or
profits.
Foreign Exchange/Currency - Such transactions involve multiple risks, including currency risk and settlement risk. Economic or financial instability, lack of timely or reliable financial
information or unfavorable political or legal developments may substantially and permanently alter the conditions, terms, marketability or price of a foreign currency. Profits and losses in
transactions in foreign exchange will also be affected by fluctuations in currency where there is a need to convert the product's denomination(s) to another currency. Time zone differences
may cause several hours to elapse between a payment being made in one currency and an offsetting payment in another currency. Relevant movements in currencies during the settlement
period may seriously erode potential profits or significantly increase any losses.
High Yield Fixed Income Securities - Investing in high yield bonds, which tend to be more volatile than investment grade fixed income securities, is speculative. These bonds are affected by
interest rate changes and the creditworthiness of the issuers, and investing in high yield bonds poses additional credit risk, as well as greater risk of default.
Commodities - The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. The price of commodities (e.g., raw industrial materials such as gold, copper and aluminum) may be subject to
substantial fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. Additionally, valuations of commodities may be
susceptible to such adverse global economic, political or regulatory developments. Prospective investors must independently assess the appropriateness of an investment in commodities in
light of their own financial condition and objectives. Not all affiliates or subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank Group offer commodities or commodities-related products and services.
This document contains “forward-looking statements”- that is, statements related to future, not past, events. In this context, forward-looking statements often address expected future
business and financial performance, and often contain words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek,” or “will.” Forward-looking statements by their nature address
matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. Particular uncertainties that could adversely or positively affect future results include: the behavior of financial markets, including fluctuations
in interest and exchange rates, commodity and equity prices and the value of financial assets; continued volatility and further deterioration of the capital markets; the commercial and
consumer credit environment; the impact of regulation and regulatory, investigative and legal actions; strategic actions, including acquisitions and dispositions; future integration of acquired
businesses; future financial performance of major industries; and numerous other matters of national, regional and global scale, including those of a political, economic, business and
competitive nature. These uncertainties may cause actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements.
Although this document has been carefully prepared and is based on information from sources believed to be reliable, no representation is made that it is accurate and complete. We have
no obligation to update or amend the information provided herein, and information is subject to change without notice.
Unless you are notified to the contrary, the products and services mentioned are not guaranteed by the FDIC (or by any governmental entity) and are not guaranteed by or obligations of
Deutsche Bank. These products are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. The past performance of a product or service does not guarantee or predict its future
performance.
Deutsche Bank AG, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, does not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. This communication was prepared solely in connection with the promotion or
marketing, to the extent permitted by applicable law, of the transaction or matter addressed herein, and was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any
taxpayer for purposes of avoiding any U.S. federal tax penalties. The recipient of this communication should seek advice from an independent tax advisor regarding any tax matters
addressed herein based on its particular circumstances.
“Deutsche Bank” means Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliated companies, as the context requires. Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management refers to Deutsche Bank’s wealth
management activities for high-net-worth clients around the world. 013345.11.08.12
Deutsche Bank 22
Private Wealth Management