- The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for February 2013 from Henley, a wealth management firm.
- It discusses the decoupling of markets and fundamentals due to money printing by developed nations, and sees a currency crisis as likely within the next couple years.
- In equities, it is positive in the short-term due to quantitative easing inflating prices, but negative on fundamentals. Real estate prices are stabilizing in select areas like Singapore, London, and signs of stability in the US, but further weakness is expected elsewhere. Fixed income carries inflation risk from monetary easing.
Informe credit suisse global investment returns yearbook 2013JavierAlfayate
The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines investment returns in a world of historically low interest rates following the global financial crisis. Some key points:
- Bond yields have fallen sharply in developed countries and are near all-time lows, while real bond yields are now negative or very low in many countries.
- Equity returns in developed markets since 2000 have also been disappointing, raising questions about the viability of equities as an asset class.
- Prospective real returns from bonds, cash, and equities are expected to be significantly lower than the high returns investors experienced in the late 20th century. Living with lower returns poses challenges, especially for retiring baby boomers.
-
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013Credit Suisse
Published: 1/2013
It is now over five years since the beginning of the global financial crisis and there is a sense that, following interruptions from the Eurozone crisis and, more recently, the fiscal cliff debate in the USA, the world economy is finally moving towards a meaningful recovery. In this context, the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines how stocks and bonds might perform in a world that is witnessing a resurgence in investor risk appetite and might soon see a rise in inflation expectations. With their analysis of data spanning 113 years of history across 25 countries, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton from the London Business School provide important research that helps guide investors as to what they might expect from market behavior in coming years.
With the improving business cycle in mind, Andrew Garthwaite and his team analyze whether inflation is good for equities. Drawing on the Yearbook dataset, they assess what type of inflation we may see in the future, and what equity sectors, industries and regions offer the best inflation exposure.
- Download the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 (PDF): http://bit.ly/1pbjE7U
- Order the print version of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 http://bit.ly/1dvaRfh
Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
The European debt crisis continues as Greece's government remains unstable and Italy's borrowing costs rise sharply. While Greece has received bailouts, it is running out of money and time. Italy's rising bond yields suggest investors are losing faith in its ability to pay debts, and Italy is a much larger economy than Greece. High debt levels worldwide continue to cause market volatility until reduced to more manageable levels. Recent data shows that U.S. government bonds outperformed stocks over the past 30 years for the first time since the Civil War, though low current bond yields mean they cannot provide the same returns going forward. History shows there are no guarantees in investing and the appropriate asset class depends on economic conditions.
This document summarizes the 2008 financial crisis and its impacts. It discusses how the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, marked by rising default rates on subprime mortgages, triggered the crisis. As major financial institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed due to their exposure to these risky mortgages, stock markets plunged substantially. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 50% from its peak in October 2007 to its trough in March 2009. Countries around the world, including India, felt significant impacts through falling stock prices, currency depreciation, and reduced foreign investment.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent economic events and the ongoing debt crisis. It summarizes that a last-minute deal avoided a US debt default, but S&P downgraded the US credit rating due to high debt levels. Global markets declined sharply on contagion fears in Europe and recession concerns. The document then analyzes how decades of accumulating consumer and government debt across developed nations has now come to a head, though the economy may stabilize over the long run.
Informe credit suisse global investment returns yearbook 2013JavierAlfayate
The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines investment returns in a world of historically low interest rates following the global financial crisis. Some key points:
- Bond yields have fallen sharply in developed countries and are near all-time lows, while real bond yields are now negative or very low in many countries.
- Equity returns in developed markets since 2000 have also been disappointing, raising questions about the viability of equities as an asset class.
- Prospective real returns from bonds, cash, and equities are expected to be significantly lower than the high returns investors experienced in the late 20th century. Living with lower returns poses challenges, especially for retiring baby boomers.
-
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013Credit Suisse
Published: 1/2013
It is now over five years since the beginning of the global financial crisis and there is a sense that, following interruptions from the Eurozone crisis and, more recently, the fiscal cliff debate in the USA, the world economy is finally moving towards a meaningful recovery. In this context, the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines how stocks and bonds might perform in a world that is witnessing a resurgence in investor risk appetite and might soon see a rise in inflation expectations. With their analysis of data spanning 113 years of history across 25 countries, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton from the London Business School provide important research that helps guide investors as to what they might expect from market behavior in coming years.
With the improving business cycle in mind, Andrew Garthwaite and his team analyze whether inflation is good for equities. Drawing on the Yearbook dataset, they assess what type of inflation we may see in the future, and what equity sectors, industries and regions offer the best inflation exposure.
- Download the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 (PDF): http://bit.ly/1pbjE7U
- Order the print version of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 http://bit.ly/1dvaRfh
Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
The European debt crisis continues as Greece's government remains unstable and Italy's borrowing costs rise sharply. While Greece has received bailouts, it is running out of money and time. Italy's rising bond yields suggest investors are losing faith in its ability to pay debts, and Italy is a much larger economy than Greece. High debt levels worldwide continue to cause market volatility until reduced to more manageable levels. Recent data shows that U.S. government bonds outperformed stocks over the past 30 years for the first time since the Civil War, though low current bond yields mean they cannot provide the same returns going forward. History shows there are no guarantees in investing and the appropriate asset class depends on economic conditions.
This document summarizes the 2008 financial crisis and its impacts. It discusses how the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, marked by rising default rates on subprime mortgages, triggered the crisis. As major financial institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed due to their exposure to these risky mortgages, stock markets plunged substantially. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 50% from its peak in October 2007 to its trough in March 2009. Countries around the world, including India, felt significant impacts through falling stock prices, currency depreciation, and reduced foreign investment.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent economic events and the ongoing debt crisis. It summarizes that a last-minute deal avoided a US debt default, but S&P downgraded the US credit rating due to high debt levels. Global markets declined sharply on contagion fears in Europe and recession concerns. The document then analyzes how decades of accumulating consumer and government debt across developed nations has now come to a head, though the economy may stabilize over the long run.
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
CBRE 31-12-12, global vision about property markets. A little late to share it, but an interesting document to keep up-to-date with the real estate investment world.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will take aggressive actions to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline policies from European political leaders.
The document summarizes recent economic data and sentiment regarding China. It notes that while exports are slowing due to global economic weakness, domestic consumption continues to grow and infrastructure investment may help offset declines in other areas. Recent data shows Chinese GDP growth slowing but not yet at dangerous levels. The outlook expects further slowing but growth still around 8% for 2012, which would not be disastrous. Risks remain from further weakness in Europe or the US hurting Chinese exports.
The document summarizes the volatility in the stock market in 2011 and outlook for 2012. Key points:
- The S&P 500 ended 2011 unchanged from where it started, despite high daily volatility averaging 1% per day, a record.
- Factors that caused 2011 volatility like the worldwide sovereign debt crisis have not been resolved and may be exacerbated.
- Austerity measures in Greece have reduced growth needed to solve its debt crisis, and there is fear this may spread to other European nations.
- Political calls for austerity in the US may not help the economy like it does for families due to the paradox of thrift.
- 2012 is not expected to be less volatile than 2011, with
The recent American election continues to have the world on edge. Seemingly every media outlet and investment manager around the world continues to hammer away at the bad or good that will be created by the actions of the new President.
This is a mistake.
While the entire world continues to be focused on President Trump and American Politics, it has become completely distracted as to what is happening in Europe.
Europe remains a pile of timber and in this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we describe how dramatic swings in politics and interest rates will be the spark that reignites the crisis in the old world.
This seminar is intended to introduce potential investors to the value of including dividend growth stocks in their mix of investments. It is a valuable introduction and highlights several stocks with a 15 year (or better) record of increasing dividends. Also covers dividend reinvestment plans and mutual funds that focus on dividend stocks. Contact me if you would like a custom developed seminar. floyd.saunders@yahoo.com
The fund returned +6.6% in August compared to -8.3% for the MSCI Europe index. Positive performance came from holdings in consumer discretionary (+4.2%), energy (+1.4%), and materials (+0.9%). Las Vegas Sands (+1.3%) and Sands China (+0.9%) were top performers, while Sky (-0.8%) and LM Ericsson Telefon (-0.4%) underperformed. The manager believes developed markets face earnings risk with high valuations and sees further global economic adjustments ahead, rather than the crisis being over, as China addresses debt, competitiveness and slowing growth issues in a deflationary environment.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
With Halloween right around the corner, it's the time of year to analyse what is safe and what is scary in investment markets.
And, the scariest investments in the world will become a complete surprise to many.
In this IceCap Global Outlook we detail what to be afraid of and why, and better yet - where you should hide.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
Spain requested a $125 billion bailout to rescue its failing banks as its economy struggles with high unemployment and recession. If Spain's financial troubles escalate, it could destabilize the entire eurozone economy. Meanwhile, Greece will hold a pivotal election that could lead to it leaving the eurozone, an unprecedented event that would plunge the region into uncharted territory. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the Fed stands ready to take action if European and global economic problems worsen.
The fund lost money significantly in April (-19.3%) due to losses from its long USD position (-11.6%), short equity book (-7%), and Australian government bond positions (-0.9%). Positive individual stock positions such as Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Kellogg Company were outweighed by losses from stocks like Seadrill Ltd. and BG Group Plc. The document discusses challenges faced by the fund, changes made to reduce risk, and the manager's views on current market conditions and outlook.
This document discusses the outlook for 2017 and identifies a potential paradigm shift in global macroeconomic trends. Specifically, it argues that fiscal stimulus will take precedence over monetary policy, deregulation will outweigh reregulation, domestic priorities will be favored over globalization, and volatility may spread from currencies to interest rates. The document also highlights six high-conviction investment themes that align with this outlook, such as favoring private equity over public stocks and real assets with yield. Overall, the analysis suggests investors should adjust their strategies in light of this changing macroeconomic landscape.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and its implications for retailers. It discusses how the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone has caused economic slowdowns around the world, including in the US, China, and other large economies. If the issues in Europe are not resolved, there is a risk of sovereign defaults that could lead to a collapse of the Eurozone with severe global economic consequences. The outlook suggests a modest acceleration in the US economy but continued structural changes, while China appears to be avoiding a hard landing through stimulus measures.
1) The document discusses competing theories for long-term low interest rates, including secular stagnation, financial repression, and shortage of safe assets.
2) It argues that financial repression is not a major factor for developed economies and that interest rates are likely low due to weak private sector demand rather than a shortage of safe assets.
3) The key debate is whether low rates reflect lingering effects of the financial crisis or a new normal of secular stagnation, with major implications for the future of monetary policy.
RSS is a simple way to stay up-to-date with new content from favorite websites by subscribing to their feeds and reading automatic updates on a personal RSS homepage. To use RSS, one signs up for a free reader account, subscribes to updates from websites, and can then embed those feeds, calendars, videos or slideshows into wikis or webpages for group communication and leadership activities.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help alleviate symptoms of mental illness and boost overall mental well-being.
El documento proporciona un tutorial básico para usar Wifislax, una distribución Linux live para auditoría wifi. Explica cómo configurar el ordenador para arrancar desde un CD de Wifislax, iniciar sesión, activar el modo monitor de la tarjeta wifi, escanear redes inalámbricas con Airoscript, seleccionar una red objetivo, lanzar un ataque de asociación falsa automático para capturar paquetes IV, y usar Aircrack para crackear la clave WPA/WPA2 con un diccionario.
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
CBRE 31-12-12, global vision about property markets. A little late to share it, but an interesting document to keep up-to-date with the real estate investment world.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will take aggressive actions to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline policies from European political leaders.
The document summarizes recent economic data and sentiment regarding China. It notes that while exports are slowing due to global economic weakness, domestic consumption continues to grow and infrastructure investment may help offset declines in other areas. Recent data shows Chinese GDP growth slowing but not yet at dangerous levels. The outlook expects further slowing but growth still around 8% for 2012, which would not be disastrous. Risks remain from further weakness in Europe or the US hurting Chinese exports.
The document summarizes the volatility in the stock market in 2011 and outlook for 2012. Key points:
- The S&P 500 ended 2011 unchanged from where it started, despite high daily volatility averaging 1% per day, a record.
- Factors that caused 2011 volatility like the worldwide sovereign debt crisis have not been resolved and may be exacerbated.
- Austerity measures in Greece have reduced growth needed to solve its debt crisis, and there is fear this may spread to other European nations.
- Political calls for austerity in the US may not help the economy like it does for families due to the paradox of thrift.
- 2012 is not expected to be less volatile than 2011, with
The recent American election continues to have the world on edge. Seemingly every media outlet and investment manager around the world continues to hammer away at the bad or good that will be created by the actions of the new President.
This is a mistake.
While the entire world continues to be focused on President Trump and American Politics, it has become completely distracted as to what is happening in Europe.
Europe remains a pile of timber and in this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we describe how dramatic swings in politics and interest rates will be the spark that reignites the crisis in the old world.
This seminar is intended to introduce potential investors to the value of including dividend growth stocks in their mix of investments. It is a valuable introduction and highlights several stocks with a 15 year (or better) record of increasing dividends. Also covers dividend reinvestment plans and mutual funds that focus on dividend stocks. Contact me if you would like a custom developed seminar. floyd.saunders@yahoo.com
The fund returned +6.6% in August compared to -8.3% for the MSCI Europe index. Positive performance came from holdings in consumer discretionary (+4.2%), energy (+1.4%), and materials (+0.9%). Las Vegas Sands (+1.3%) and Sands China (+0.9%) were top performers, while Sky (-0.8%) and LM Ericsson Telefon (-0.4%) underperformed. The manager believes developed markets face earnings risk with high valuations and sees further global economic adjustments ahead, rather than the crisis being over, as China addresses debt, competitiveness and slowing growth issues in a deflationary environment.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
With Halloween right around the corner, it's the time of year to analyse what is safe and what is scary in investment markets.
And, the scariest investments in the world will become a complete surprise to many.
In this IceCap Global Outlook we detail what to be afraid of and why, and better yet - where you should hide.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
Spain requested a $125 billion bailout to rescue its failing banks as its economy struggles with high unemployment and recession. If Spain's financial troubles escalate, it could destabilize the entire eurozone economy. Meanwhile, Greece will hold a pivotal election that could lead to it leaving the eurozone, an unprecedented event that would plunge the region into uncharted territory. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the Fed stands ready to take action if European and global economic problems worsen.
The fund lost money significantly in April (-19.3%) due to losses from its long USD position (-11.6%), short equity book (-7%), and Australian government bond positions (-0.9%). Positive individual stock positions such as Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Kellogg Company were outweighed by losses from stocks like Seadrill Ltd. and BG Group Plc. The document discusses challenges faced by the fund, changes made to reduce risk, and the manager's views on current market conditions and outlook.
This document discusses the outlook for 2017 and identifies a potential paradigm shift in global macroeconomic trends. Specifically, it argues that fiscal stimulus will take precedence over monetary policy, deregulation will outweigh reregulation, domestic priorities will be favored over globalization, and volatility may spread from currencies to interest rates. The document also highlights six high-conviction investment themes that align with this outlook, such as favoring private equity over public stocks and real assets with yield. Overall, the analysis suggests investors should adjust their strategies in light of this changing macroeconomic landscape.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and its implications for retailers. It discusses how the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone has caused economic slowdowns around the world, including in the US, China, and other large economies. If the issues in Europe are not resolved, there is a risk of sovereign defaults that could lead to a collapse of the Eurozone with severe global economic consequences. The outlook suggests a modest acceleration in the US economy but continued structural changes, while China appears to be avoiding a hard landing through stimulus measures.
1) The document discusses competing theories for long-term low interest rates, including secular stagnation, financial repression, and shortage of safe assets.
2) It argues that financial repression is not a major factor for developed economies and that interest rates are likely low due to weak private sector demand rather than a shortage of safe assets.
3) The key debate is whether low rates reflect lingering effects of the financial crisis or a new normal of secular stagnation, with major implications for the future of monetary policy.
RSS is a simple way to stay up-to-date with new content from favorite websites by subscribing to their feeds and reading automatic updates on a personal RSS homepage. To use RSS, one signs up for a free reader account, subscribes to updates from websites, and can then embed those feeds, calendars, videos or slideshows into wikis or webpages for group communication and leadership activities.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help alleviate symptoms of mental illness and boost overall mental well-being.
El documento proporciona un tutorial básico para usar Wifislax, una distribución Linux live para auditoría wifi. Explica cómo configurar el ordenador para arrancar desde un CD de Wifislax, iniciar sesión, activar el modo monitor de la tarjeta wifi, escanear redes inalámbricas con Airoscript, seleccionar una red objetivo, lanzar un ataque de asociación falsa automático para capturar paquetes IV, y usar Aircrack para crackear la clave WPA/WPA2 con un diccionario.
Este documento presenta una secuencia didáctica que incluye una introducción para motivar a los estudiantes, una tarea, un proceso para completar la tarea en pasos o subtareas, recursos para apoyar la tarea, una evaluación de los productos de aprendizaje con criterios y rúbrica, conclusiones para que los estudiantes reflexionen sobre su aprendizaje, y créditos para reconocer las fuentes utilizadas.
This study examines the determinants of the age at first sexual intercourse among Nepali youth using data from the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression models show that female youth from Terai regions, and from disadvantaged castes/ethnicities like Terai Hindus, Muslims and Dalits, are more likely to engage in sexual activities earlier compared to Hill Hindu females. Higher levels of education, especially completing the SLC level and above, significantly decreases the odds of early sexual initiation for both males and females. The results indicate that contextual social and economic factors have a more pronounced influence on female sexuality in Nepal.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - August 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- European debt problems continue to deteriorate and discussions of bailouts, bail-ins and debt restructurings are resurfacing.
- The US economy continues to struggle with high unemployment and declining real wages. Detroit's bankruptcy filing highlights fiscal issues facing many US cities.
- China and Japan face their own economic challenges as China tries to rebalance its economy and Japan attempts stimulus through money printing.
- Precious metals saw a recovery in recent weeks after declines in April and June, but concerns remain around a potential collapse of the paper gold market.
-
The Henley Group's Market Outlook August 2013Sydney2008
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- Developments in Europe continue to deteriorate with talk of more bailouts and debt restructurings that will impact depositors, bondholders and creditors.
- The US economy faces challenges such as high national debt levels and Detroit's bankruptcy highlighting issues for other cities.
- China and Japan each face their own economic challenges around rebalancing and stimulating growth.
- Precious metals saw a recovery in recent weeks after declines in April and June, though concerns remain around a collapse of the paper gold market.
- Equity markets are seen as dangerous and unstable while
The Henley Group's Market Outlook (August 2013)PeterWW
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- European debt problems continue to deteriorate and discussions of bailouts, bail-ins and debt restructurings are ongoing.
- The US and Chinese economies face challenges like high debt levels and rebalancing efforts.
- The G20 is working on reforms to the international financial system including potentially moving away from dollar dominance.
- Equity markets are seen as risky while fixed income also faces challenges from a tapering of quantitative easing programs. Currencies and property markets vary by region but overall trends are neutral to negative.
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- European debt problems continue to deteriorate and discussions of bailouts, bail-ins and debt restructurings are ongoing.
- The US and Chinese economies face challenges like high debt levels and rebalancing efforts.
- The G20 is working on reforms to the international financial system including potentially moving away from dollar dominance.
- Equity markets are seen as risky while fixed income also faces challenges from a tapering of quantitative easing programs. Currencies and property markets show mixed trends across regions.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - August 2013Winston Lai
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- European debt problems continue to deteriorate and discussions of bailouts, bail-ins and debt restructurings are ongoing.
- The US and Chinese economies face challenges like high debt levels and rebalancing efforts.
- The G20 is working on reforms to the international financial system including potentially moving away from dollar dominance.
- Equity markets are seen as risky while fixed income also faces challenges from a tapering of quantitative easing programs. Currencies and property markets vary by region but overall trends are neutral to negative.
The Henley Group’s Market Outlook publicationPedrojnr55
The document provides an overview and outlook for various global asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies and property. Key points include:
- Developments in Europe continue to deteriorate with talk of more bailouts and debt restructurings that will impact depositors, bondholders and creditors.
- The US economy faces challenges such as high national debt levels and Detroit's bankruptcy highlighting issues for other cities.
- China and Japan each face their own economic challenges around rebalancing and stimulating growth.
- Precious metals saw a recovery in recent weeks after declines in April and June, with signs of shortage in the metals market.
- Equity markets overall receive a negative assessment due to unstable financial markets,
The document discusses recent market trends and the relationship between two opposing forces - the "Bubble Chain" and the "Deleveraging Chain".
The Bubble Chain refers to rising asset prices driven by central bank liquidity, moving from government bonds to corporate credit to equities. However, a Deleveraging Chain is also occurring, shown through weakness in commodities, emerging markets, and gold. These two chains send inconsistent signals about the economy.
The document argues one chain will have to give way at some point, allowing for a realignment. It also analyzes gold's recent sharp decline, putting forward several hypotheses for what triggered it and what implications it could have. The author remains uncertain about which
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for July 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, and property. For equities, it analyzes regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It also covers commodities, alternative investments, and risks related to potential bank bail-ins. The author advises taking precautions with bank deposits given new laws allowing for deposit haircuts and the insolvency of many financial institutions masked by fraudulent accounting.
The document summarizes a lecture on the economic challenges facing Greece. It discusses Greece's current account and budget deficits, the impact of the global financial crisis on Greece's key industries of tourism and shipping, challenges in reforming government spending and pensions, and concerns about contagion effects in other Eurozone countries with high debt levels.
South of San Francisco lies a small stretch of the famous California Highway 1 notoriously known by locals as The Devil's Slide.
The stunning view along this road is supported by a weak and steep foundation of loose rock, and porous soil that has been increasingly eroding away over the years sweeping cars, pavement and lives into the sea below.
Naturally, rock slides from the erosion reached a point where the road has been deemed unsafe and closed. In the end, the Devil in the details was a weak foundation supported by illogical engineering.
Today, the Financial Devil has watched patiently, as the world’s central banks and political leaders built a financial debt and interest rate structure on a foundation consisting of theories, acronyms and worst of all – hope.
Since 1982, the financial world has enjoyed a thrilling ride – one zoomed around the world by 36 years of bailouts and declining long-term interest rates.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook we help you see how a pattern of minor financial stresses will culminate into a major financial stress.
And more importantly, how to identify the opportunities that will be created as the majority of the industry continues to ignore the Financial Devil.
1. The portfolio manager discusses the market performance in Q2 2014, with the Canadian equity markets outperforming other global regions.
2. He explains that central bank monetary policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have been a key driver for the stock market rally over the past few years by keeping interest rates low.
3. The portfolio manager reiterates his advice to investors to stick to their customized plans and not be deterred by short-term market fluctuations, as the plans are designed to navigate periods of volatility.
After the global financial crisis, the global banking industry will undergo significant changes due to new regulations. Growth and profitability for banks will likely decline as equity ratios increase. Lean years are ahead for US banks as revenue growth may remain low due to reduced lending. Private equity experienced booms and busts with the economic cycle, riding high during expansions but seeing deal volumes drop sharply during recessions. The industry is starting to see signs of recovery in 2010 in both developed and emerging markets like India.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008Viết Nội Dung
The annual report summarizes Viet Capital Fund's performance in 2008, a difficult year for the fund and markets. The fund lost 57% in value compared to a 66% loss for the market index. While the fund outperformed the market, its net asset value fell to VND 418 billion by year-end. The fund increased its cash position from 22% to 44% over the year as it focused on capital preservation during the market turmoil. Top holdings were reduced in industries like real estate that were hit hard by the economic downturn. Going forward, the fund will emphasize quality companies and maintain a risk-aware strategy while seeking recovery opportunities.
The document provides an investment outlook from Fasanara Capital. It expects the ECB and Germany to find a short-term solution to avoid a disorderly Greek default, despite remaining bearish long-term. It anticipates using massive ECB liquidity to hedge against negative scenarios through selective shorts and hedging programs. Opportunities also exist in industries vulnerable to banking retrenchment and slowing Chinese imports.
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010Gaurav Sharma
Global Financial Order - Reasons for Crisis, Current Status, The BIG Shifts- Public Debt, Global De-leverage, Wealth Concetration & Creation.
Talk Delivered at Fore School Of Management, new Delhi
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for June 2012. It discusses ongoing issues in Europe, including uncertainty around Greece's future in the eurozone. It also mentions weakness in China's economy and concerns around derivatives exposures and potential defaults. Overall, the outlook remains cautious due to ongoing risks and challenges around the world.
The document provides an overview of the monthly market outlook for June 2012. It discusses the ongoing crisis in Europe, with a focus on the elections in Greece and France and how they have changed Europe profoundly. It notes the short-term focus remains on Europe and how Germany is now isolated in its refusal to support growth measures. It also briefly touches on concerns around Greece running out of money, Spain's banking troubles, and slowing growth in China. In conclusion, it states the fate of Greece and the euro remain the major cliffhangers for the month.
The Henley Group Seminar - 22 October 2014Tania Scott
The Henley Group's Chief Economist, Martin W. Hennecke will be answering commonly asked client questions and Jeremy Stunt from CFT Asia Group will help explain how you make investment decisions! To register please email: ts@thehenleygroup.com.hk
Martin Hennecke will give his top 10 predictions for 2014 and discuss whether the Year of the Horse will be smooth or bumpy for China's markets. Timothy Beardson will discuss challenges facing China in coming decades, including prospects for growth, innovation, and whether China will replace the US as the next superpower. The seminar on February 27th will include presentations from Hennecke and Beardson as well as a Q&A session covering issues related to foreign affairs, politics, the military, cyber security, the environment, and social issues in China.
The Henley Group – Seminar Invitation – 27 February 2014Tania Scott
The Henley Group’s 27 February Seminar "Predictions for 2014 and the future for China". Speakers: Martin Hennecke, Chief Economist, The Henley Group and author Timothy Beardson of 'Stumbling Giant'.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - January 2014Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley, an investment firm, for January 2014. It discusses various asset classes including equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities across different geographic regions. Some key points include that US debt levels remain unsustainable, European sovereign debt issues persist, and Chinese growth is holding up relatively well. Equities appear more attractive than property in China relative to historical valuations. Bitcoin is not recommended due to its lack of intrinsic value and unlimited supply of virtual currencies. Overall the outlook captures both positives and risks across global markets to help investors with asset allocation.
The Henley Group Seminar Invitation-13 NovemberTania Scott
Please join us at The Henley Group’s last seminar of 2013 on Wednesday 13 November to hear about asset bubbles vs undervalued opportunities and Dr Jim Walker's view on the global economy. If interested please register by email: ts@thehenleygroup.com.hk
Do you have any connection with the UK? If so, this could be for youTania Scott
A free breakfast seminar addressing the new UK residence rules and your UK pension. This is ideal for anyone who has any UK connections or has worked in the UK. If interested please email your interest to: ts@thehenleygroup.com.hk
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The Henley Group’s April Seminar
Speaker 1: Peter Wynn Williams, Investment Director & Partner, The Henley Group Limited – Market Update
Speaker 2: Jeremy Stunt, Director CFT, Asia Group Limited - Investment Decision Making and Your Brain
The Henley Group' Outlook - March 2013 editionTania Scott
The document provides a March 2013 market outlook from Henley focusing on global equities. It notes that after a volatile start to the year, markets have pulled back from highs reached on quantitative easing from central banks. There is disagreement at the US Federal Reserve over continuing open-ended QE. Central banks are trapped and cannot exit QE without disrupting markets or causing inflation. This leaves gold and silver as the best ways to rebalance accounts given several years of money printing that has not worked as intended.
Henley December Outlook Hong Kong 2012 LowTania Scott
The document provides an overview and analysis of global markets and economic conditions in December 2012. It discusses uncertainties in the US around resolving the fiscal cliff issues and debates around raising the debt ceiling. In Europe, more bailouts are being crafted for Greece but are only temporary fixes. Japan may see new stimulus policies from an incoming government. Across asset classes, the outlook is neutral to negative due to ongoing debt and economic challenges facing developed nations. High dividend stocks and select property investments are preferred over fixed income given inflation risks.
Henley November Outlook Hong Kong 2012(Low)Tania Scott
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and geopolitical issues for the month of November 2012 by The Henley Group. It notes that the next few months bring uncertainty from leadership transitions in the US and China as well as ongoing debt issues in Europe and America. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to low yields and inflation risks. Property is given a neutral assessment with selective opportunities. Currencies are predicted to further devalue against commodities and the Yen is seen as a safe haven.
2. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Content
Equities
Global Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Cash & Currencies
.............................................................................................................................................. 5
Fixed Income
............................................................................................................................................... 6
Property
.............................................................................................................................................. 7
Equities US ............................................................................................................................... 8
Japan ................................................................................................................................. 8
UK ........................................................................................................................................ 9
Europe Ex UK .................................................................................................................. 9
Australia ........................................................................................................................ 10
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................... 10
Greater China................................................................................................................ 11
India .............................................................................................................................. 11
Other Emerging Markets ......................................................................................... 12
Commodities Energy...............................................................................................................................13
Precious Metals.............................................................................................................13
Industrial Metals.......................................................................................................... 13
Agriculture.............................................................................................................. 14
Alternative Investments .............................................................................................................................................15
The Investment Committee
The Henley Investment Committee combines more than 110 years’ experience and
is unique in being backed by a full-time team of five investment professionals to
optimise asset allocation and manager selection.
Peter Wynn Williams George Rippon Paul Brady Chris Skinner
Investment Director Partner Partner Partner
& Partner
Andrew Kelly David Reynolds Simon Liu Mattias Hoijer
Partner Partner Head of Investment Associate Investment
Research Director
2
3. Global Overview
Equities
Peter Wynn Williams Year of the Snake? Or Year of the Ladder?!
Investment Director
pww@thehenleygroup.com.hk Chocks away, Biggles! Equity-market indices in New York, Tokyo and London are all up
over 7% so far this year; and, while silver is keeping up with them, gold was unchanged in
January and US Treasury prices are at nine-month lows. Governments and the mainstream
media would have us believe that sentiment is positive, confidence is rising and recovery
is just around the corner. Hard data, however, present a very different picture. Why have
markets and fundamentals de-coupled so much?
Sorry, there are no prizes for guessing: excess debt and money printing. In the lead up to the
credit crunch in 2008, the developed world essentially reached the limit of its capacity to
borrow. Markets have their own very efficient ways of dealing with excessive debt (default,
insolvency and write-offs); but governments want to avoid the political, economic and social
consequences – not to mention an implosion of the quadrillion-dollar derivatives universe,
of whose problems most mere mortals like us are largely unaware.
So, in 2008, governments started printing money. So far, they have printed about USD15tn
and thrown this liquidity at the world’s insolvency problems, using various pretences
such as boosting economic growth or reducing unemployment. The real reason for the
money printing has been to fund government deficits, to keep the banks solvent and the
system afloat. That US GDP growth turned negative in the quarter after QE to infinity was
announced last September was deliciously ironic.
But now, the crisis has entered a new phase, which smells of desperation. American QE is
now unlimited in size and open-ended in duration. Europe has announced (although not yet
activated) a similar programme; and, last month, Japan announced its own open-ended QE
programme alongside a fiscal stimulus equivalent to USD225bn. The UK is also considering
re-activating its QE programme.
As an aside – pardon me for being my usual cynical self – but I had to chuckle when the
US announced last month the “temporary suspension” of their debt ceiling. Those were
exactly the same two words President Nixon used when he announced in 1971 that he was
ending the convertibility of dollars into gold. “Temporary suspension” of the debt ceiling has
removed the last statutory restriction on the printing and spending of the US government.
Where is all this leading? The problems in Europe so far have centred around the risk of
sovereign default. For the US, the UK, Japan (and China), the problem is different. They
all have their own currencies and their own printing presses, so the risk of repudiation is
negligible. No, the certainty for them is that, sooner or later, if they remain on unsustainable
fiscal courses, they will experience a currency crisis – probably in the form of a hyperinflation
(a collapse in confidence in a currency caused by printing too much of it).
What would be the trigger for such a collapse? Well, that is pretty much the only variable
in the equation we do not know. Black swans are by definition difficult (or impossible) to
forecast. It could be a political assassination, a default on the COMEX, a bomb dropped on
Iran, or any number of other triggers.
Perhaps in anticipation of the currency crisis (or capital controls?), it was interesting to see
Germany announcing last month the repatriation from Paris and New York of 674 tonnes
of its gold reserves; about 20% of the total. 37% of Germany’s total reserves will remain in
New York, for the time being. Even more interesting will be whether other countries follow
Germany’s example. If they do, the German move will be the most important event in the
gold market since President de Gaulle exercised his right to demand gold in exchange for
France’s dollar reserves, which led to the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968. I wonder
whether the currency crisis will arrive before Germany finishes the repatriation in 2020?
Most forecasters say we have about two years, plus or minus one year!
3
4. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Global Overview
Equities
However, in all this desperation lies opportunity. By and large, the money being printed is
not being lent to consumers or corporates to spend or invest. Instead, the banks are using it
to speculate in the markets, which is why asset prices are inflating even while the economic
fundamentals deteriorate. The money being printed in the US, Japan and elsewhere is
leaking into asset prices all over the world, and will continue to do so.
Unfortunately, this is only a window of opportunity rather than the start of a long-term bull
market. I do not know how long the window will stay open (how I wish I did!); but it could
be a couple of years, plus or minus a year – if we are lucky! The spectacular QE2 equity-
market rally, which began in March 2009, lasted five calendar quarters. Since the money
printers have no option but to keep printing, this party could have legs, until that black
swan paddles into view!
Lastly, lest some of you think I am out of love with gold and silver after all these years, not
at all. We still recommend a large core holding with an eye on that currency crisis, but not
everybody has the patience for the long game. For some, it’s about the thrill of the chase!
Tally ho!
Peter Wynn Williams
Investment Director
4
5. Equities
Cash & Currencies
USD Index (Source: Bloomberg)
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Summary
Strongly Negative ■■ All eyes were on the JPY at the start of January as Prime Minister Abe’s announced his new
monetary policy which focuses on higher inflation and a weaker JPY. This may also impact
USD, GBP and EUR over the AUD and NZD due to their roles in carry trades, if JPY weakens, AUD and NZD may gain
medium-to-long term against until we start to see higher inflation and rate increases in Japan. Then we may see weakness.
a trade-weighted basket of ■■ Over the past few years the SGD has been the new safe haven currency due to the strength
currencies given that all of these of the city state’s economy, and also the way the currency is managed. We expect this to
currencies are debasing and continue, and in particular, to attract those who previously held JPY.
devaluing through significant ■■ The EUR has gained more than 12% against the USD since July, and is now above 11 month
quantitative easing. AUD is to highs.
remain volatile based around ■■ It has been a very poor month for USD Index too, for the reasons outlined above.
the Chinese data. We still ■■ Ultimately, despite the bullish data and the resolution of the fiscal cliff, the US economy is
favour SGD as a safe haven, and still far from meeting the Federal Reserve’s conditions for concluding monetary stimulus. The
commodity currencies for yield. current unemployment rate is 7.8%, and recovery from this level is expected to be slow. At this
rate we don’t expect the Federal Reserve’s target jobless rate of 6.5% to be achieved any time
soon. Second, the recent improvements in hiring and home sales suggests that US economy
reacts positively to the monetary stimulus – perhaps encouraging this support to be held in
place for longer.
5
6. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Equities
Fixed Income
HENLEY ASSESSMENT
Negative
While there may be some short-
term relief in fixed income from
the volatility seen in equity
markets, and also a comparative
positive return when compared
to holding straight cash in the
short term, we are of the opinion
that such short-term relief has
the potential to come at a costly
price in the medium to long term.
With the developed economies
committed to the path of
continued monetary easing, we
believe that inflation will become
a serious concern in the future.
Such an environment would see
the relatively low yields enjoyed
by fixed interest over-run by the
cost of goods.
There may be an argument to
seek short-term safety in specific Points of General Interest
emerging market bonds but we see ■■ It has emerged that for the first time in 40 years, pension funds hold more of their assets in
serious danger in accepting the bonds than shares.
debt of the developed economies,
both on a sovereign default front
(especially within Europe) and on Government Bonds
a return vs. inflation front. ■■ Japan plans to cut its reliance on government bonds as Prime Minister Abe tries to demonstrate
determination to repair the state’s stretched finances.
Also, as the graph below accurately ■■ Portugal returned to debt markets, with the hugely successful sale of EUR2.5bn of bonds due
demonstrates, inflows into bonds Oct17.
have become somewhat excessive ■■ The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which affects many other borrowing rates, briefly
and with the allure of dividends popped above 2% for the first time since April 2012 in January.
and the current short-term respite
from the US and Euro debt crisis, a
shift from bonds into equities may Corporate Bonds
burst the bubble that has been ■■ Sales of corporate bonds in the US dropped 57% in late January and relative yields narrowed
growing since the global financial as foreign borrowers dominated dollar-denominated issuance.
crisis.
Offshore Bank Accounts- Best Buys
■■ No Notice Account- Britannia International – 2%pa.
■■ 60 Day Notice- Britannia International- 2.25%pa.
6
7. Property
Equities
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ Prime London Central property continues to be viewed as a safe haven investment area.
Prices rose 15.3% in 2012, bringing the average property price to GBP1.024m according to
Property prices generally, the Land Registry. Property transactions fell by 9% over the year, which was thought to be
after significant falls in 2009, a combination of owners holding onto their best performing assets and the adoption of a
stabilised in 2010 and 2011. “wait and see” attitude in the face of further UK government property tax announcements in
Further weakness of property relation to properties owned by “non-natural persons” above GBP2m.
prices in many areas is now ■■ In Singapore home prices in Q412 climbed to a record high and prices have now risen for four
apparent in 2012 as economic straight years. As a result the government has just introduced yet more cooling measures to
conditions remain difficult. control property price rises. Homebuyers will have to pay between 5% and 7% more in stamp
Property values have recovered duty and there is a now a tax of up to 15% for sellers of industrial buildings if properties are
in selected areas such as sold within one year.
Singapore, Hong Kong and ■■ Recent US housing data continues to be mixed but reflects that the housing market may have
London. Additinally we are found a bottom during 2012, after falls of 35% from the 2006 peak. The S&P/Case-Shiller
seeing early signs of some 10 and 20 City Indices reflected gains of 3.4% and 4.3% respectively in October 2012 YOY.
stability in the US housing However, bank repossessions remain a problem. 59,134 houses were repossessed in NOV12 up
market. We still consider some 5.4% MOM, as lenders seek to manage the flow of distressed properties without disrupting
specialised property assets such any recovery.
as student accommodation to
Negatives
merit inclusion in our portfolios.
■■ Land Registry data on average home prices in England and Wales for 2012 reflected a largely
Other than these investments,
static market, with an increase of only 0.75% to GBP249,958. Estimates of UK home prices for
we would suggest that clients do
2013 are showing a flat to slightly negative return. All of this reflects the uncertain economic
not invest further at this time.
outlook and difficulty in obtaining finance, with the result that the number of transactions
is lower. Bank of England data shows mortgage approvals of approximately 54,000 for
November 12, which is only about half the monthly average of mortgage approvals for the
decade ending 2007, ie, before the financial crisis.
■■ Australian residential property loan applications unexpectedly fell 0.5% MOM in November
reflecting reduced demand because of a soft economic outlook. This comes after six central
bank interest rate cuts over the last year, with current interest rates matching a 50 year low.
■■ In Europe the housing slump continues with Standard & Poor’s estimating that prices will
continue to slide for another two years. House prices in Spain are likely to fall another 7.9%
this year and may need to fall an additional 20% or more to clear an overhang of one million
homes. Dutch and French property prices are forecast to fall 6% and 5% in 2013 respectively.
Germany is the standout market, with home prices expected to rise 3% in 2013.
7
8. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Equities
EQUITIES
UNITED STATES
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Negative on ■■ QE to infinity will inflate asset prices.
Fundamentals, ■■ The US Federal Reserve has forecast rates will remain unchanged until at least 2015.
Positive on Markets short term ■■ In the long term, demographics and returned energy self-sufficiency bode well.
Negatives
Chances of Congress and the
■■ National debt: USD16.5tn and rising; debt to GDP: 106% and rising. This is absurdly
White House addressing the
unsustainable.
long-term solvency issues of the
US government in a meaningful ■■ QE to infinity promises currency debasement, rising prices and lower discretionary spending.
manner remain nil. The changes ■■ Foreigners are buying fewer and selling more US Treasury bonds.
required to balance the system ■■ Debt ceiling “temporarily suspended” plus QE to infinity may result in currency crisis in a
are too politically painful; so a couple of years.
currency crisis within the next
couple of years seems the most
likely outcome – especially if
there is a black-swan event, such
as an assassination, a COMEX
default or a bomb on Iran,
for example. Meanwhile the
economy continues to bottom
bounce, fundamentals continue
to deteriorate, and markets
continue not to care, buoyed
by a rising tide of confetti (and
nothing else).
JAPAN
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ Nikkei touched 10,900 and set for best yearly rise since 2005.
■■ JPY has tumbled 12% in the last three months. USD touched JPY90 as Bank of Japan bowed
Japanese has accumulated debts to the pressure for further easing.
worth some USD14.6tn, or 230%
Negatives
of GDP. A quarter of Japan’s
■■ In a joint statement with the government, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officially introduced a
budget now goes to servicing
2% inflation target, replacing its previous price goal of 1%. BoJ also introduced an open-
debt. So far Tokyo has done little
ended asset-buying plan in 2014, setting monthly purchases at JPY13tn including JPY2tn
to change its course. To make
for Japanese government bonds and JPY10tn for short-term bills. But stocks and foreign
matters worse, we have seen a
exchange markets were disappointed that stimulus does not come sooner.
deterioration in the balance of
trade in 2012. Japan had a record
trade deficit of JPY1,476.9bn in
January and has been reporting
deficits of over JPY500bn in
recent months. Japan’s standoff
with China over the disputed
islands also contributed to
declines in Japan’s shipments
to China for six months through
November. We doubt if Japan
waiving the debt limit of JPY44tn
(USD514bn) for the fiscal year
and targeting higher (2%)
inflation are sound economic
policies in the medium term.
Source: Der Spiegel
8
9. EQUITIES
Equities
UNITED KINGDOM
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Negative ■■ The man hand-picked by George Osborne to run the Bank of England has fuelled speculation
that he will order a policy revolution to jump-start the stalled British economy. Speaking at the
The UK economy and the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Canadian Mark Carney, who will take over in July, hinted
chancellor in particular, have strongly at a new approach when he said that central bankers should be prepared to take
again had a grim time in the aggressive measures to help economies achieve what he called “escape velocity”.
past few weeks. As George, ■■ David Cameron has rebuffed criticism at home and abroad of his commitment to hold a
David and Boris were munching referendum on the UK’s future in Europe if he wins the next election. In a savvy political
on fondue in Davos, figures were move, he has neutralised the threat of UKIP, thrown the ball back to the Labour party and
released showing a contraction significantly increased the Conservatives chances of being reelected for a further term.
in the economy, increasing the
likelihood of an unprecedented Negatives
triple dip recession. Borrowing ■■ Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, criticised the chancellor’s
targets are also unlikely to be hit, continued pursuit of austerity despite signs that the economy was stagnating, including
which raises the probability that worse than expected GDP figures, and that the chancellor risked a lost decade for the British
at least one of the credit rating economy with low growth and increasing public debt.
agencies will downgrade the UK ■■ Figures unveiled on Friday showed that the British economy shrank in the last quarter of 2012.
from its coveted triple A rating. If the economy shrinks again in the first quarter of 2012, Britain will be in recession for the
This will be particularly hard for third time since the economic crash of 2008. The government insists that its policy of cutting
George Osborne as he has staked expenditure is the only course available but critics insist that the absence of growth was
his political credibility on this. In increasing the deficit rather than cutting it.
the short term this is likely to lead
to downward pressure on sterling,
and this has already dipped
below the neutral 1.60 mark to
USD.
EUROPE EX UNITED KINGDOM
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Strongly negative ■■ The euro zone finance chiefs gave the green light for the payout of EUR9.2bn to Greece this
month. Of the funds, EUR7.2bn in bonds are for the further recapitalisation of Greek banks,
Financial conditions have improved and EUR2bn in cash are to cover the government’s budget needs.
enormously since the ECB promised ■■ Spanish two-year bond yield – one of the maturities the central bank could target – has
to do whatever it takes to preserve plunged from a peak of more than 7% last year to 2.59%. The decline in Madrid’s borrowing
the euro. Yields on the bonds of highly costs also reflects slightly better fundamentals, not just the ECB backstop. The banking sector
indebted peripheral countries have – long the biggest weight around Spain’s neck – is being restructured and recapitalised.
fallen sharply, bank funding strains
Negatives
have eased and stock markets have
■■ Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece shrank their combined current account deficit to
rallied. Countries on the southern
an estimated 1.5% of GDP in 2012 from 7% in 2008, and look set to balance their external
rim of the euro zone have made big
accounts this year. However, this “rebalancing” has been mostly achieved by slashing imports,
strides in reducing their budget and
more so than increasing exports.
trade deficits. They are no longer
■■ The long-delayed bailout of Cyprus is set to be pushed back at least two months amid
living way beyond their means. But
mounting disagreement over how to bring down the cost to a manageable level for the debt-
demand is likely to remain weak, while
laden country. The IMF was insisting on significant amounts of debt relief before it agreed to
unemployment, already at a record
participate in the programme.
11.8%, is forecast to rise further before
it comes down. Recovery will be slow ■■ The IMF cut global growth forecasts and now projects a second year of contraction in EUR
and serious risks remain. The euro zone region as progress in battling Europe’s debt crisis fails to produce economic recovery. 7 out of
needs growth in its major markets 17 euro zone economies are now in recession – others are not far behind.
abroad and the political patience to
stay the course at home.
9
10. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Equities
EQUITIES
AUSTRALIA
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 0.6% from 100.0 in
Dec12 to 100.6 in Jan13. This is the third consecutive month when the Index has been at or
Despite recent rate cuts by the above the 100 level. That compares with 14 of the previous 16 months when the Index had
Reserve Bank, manufacturing and registered below 100.
construction industries continue ■■ Australian consumer prices gained less than economists forecast last quarter on cheaper food
to report weak performance and and health care, pushing down the AUD and giving the central bank scope to reduce interest
declining business sentiment. rates.
Business outlook for sales, profit Negatives
and economic conditions worsened ■■ Prices of iron ore may tumble by the end of the year as global supply increases, undermining a
between September and December, rally that pushed the price of the steel-making raw material to a 15-month high.
according to a survey of 600
■■ Fitch warns that Australia risks losing its coveted triple-A credit rating as the nation’s ageing
construction and manufacturing
population drains government coffers. In the same report, it estimates Australia’s public debt
firms compiled by the Australian
will explode from 2020 onwards if current productivity and workforce participation remains
Chamber of Commerce and
static.
Industry. Sales and profits have
seen no sign of rebounding since
early 2010 and business hiring
intentions for the next six months
have declined to the lowest level
since the survey began in 1998.
It is widely expected expect that
there is a clear case for at least
one more rate cut in this cycle and
the target has been the February/
March “window”, especially
with the lower consumer prices.
ASEAN
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Positive ■■ Singapore will increase spending on population-growth measures by 25%, rolling out incentives
ranging from government-paid time off for adoption and paternity leave, to funding for fertility
Japan’s drive to revive growth may treatments. An annual budget of SGD2bn (USD1.6bn) will be set aside for measures including
boost ASEAN as rising demand in state-funded childcare leave, healthcare costs and financial support for housing to married
the world’s No. 3 economy spurs couples. The government will pay 75% of the cost of reproduction technology treatments for
orders and Japanese companies couples. Those with more than one child will also be eligible for the funding. Singapore will also
take advantage of cheap funding provide four weeks of government-paid leave for working mothers of adopted children in the
to invest in the region. Indonesia, first year as well as introduce a week of paternity leave for fathers.
Thailand and Malaysia are ■■ Thailand’s export growth quickened to a 15-month high in Nov12 as factories returned to full
identified by HSBC Holdings Plc capacity after floods in 2011 and global demand improved. Overseas sales rose 26.9%YOY
and Credit Suisse Group AG to be after climbing a previously reported 15.6% in Oct12.
among the biggest beneficiaries
Negatives
of Japanese monetary easing
■■ Singapore’s citizen workforce will begin shrinking in 2020 for the first time in its history, while
and Abe’s JPY10.3tn (USD115bn)
land and labour limits will constrain its economic competitiveness.
stimulus plan. Lower borrowing
■■ The Philippine central bank will also struggle to manage inflation without sacrificing
costs at home may add momentum
competitiveness or economic stability. Its growth is attracting funds that pushed the peso to
to plans for overseas expansion,
a four-year high in Nov12, even as Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered rates four times this
with Toyota Motor Corporation
year and introduced measures to curb inflows.
announcing in Nov12 it will
increase production in Indonesia. ■■ North Jakarta is still stranded while more than 18,000 have been evacuated from their homes,
Japan’s dispute with China over as floods that started 15Jan13 submerge areas of the city. Jakarta accounts for a huge part of
the sovereignty of islands has also Indonesia’s GDP (16% in 3Q12). Jakarta sits in a low-lying area with 13 rivers and more than
helped shift Abe’s focus toward 1,400 km (870 miles) of man-made waterways, making it prone to flooding.
Southeast Asia and prompted ■■ Rubber production in Indonesia, the second-biggest grower, may drop for the first time in
companies to add investments four years in 2013 as the country limits output and shipments in coordination with other
elsewhere in the region. producers.
10
11. EQUITIES
Equities
GREATER CHINA
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Positive ■■ Potential upside for China stocks, especially
A-shares, is huge given the last a few years’
We believe the Chinese underperformance and cheap valuation. MSCI
economy bottomed out in China is still traded at 10.3x forward P/E, which
3Q 2012 and a recovery was is far below the historical average of 12.6x.
sustained throughout 4Q. Since ■■ Xi Jinping, the newly elected party secretary,
September, several positive admitted that official corruption is one of the
changes have contributed to a most serious challenges that the CCP faces. The
modest acceleration in industrial party discussed the anti-corruption campaign
production. In October and in a recent meeting and decided to use the most Source: Bloomberg Finance LP/Deutsche Bank
November, the raw material effective measures and observe a material
inventory and PMI showed impact going forward.In the long-run, it is definitely an encouraging sign for social stability
continuous improvement. however these actions will likely lead to revenue deceleration in sectors including Macau
Also, demand has recovered gaming, luxury consumption, as well as gift card sales in department stores in the short term.
modestly in the past two ■■ While the current real estate policy is unlikely to change, the real demand for property remains
months, the rebound in export healthy as urbanisation is expected to speed up in 2013 and affordability has improved. It is
growth suggested the external certain that the upward pressure on property prices in major cities will benefit mainland real
sentiment of developed markets estate developers.
turned for the better. Hence, we
Negatives
almost have witnessed the “Hard
■■ The key downside risks for the Chinese economy in 2013 include a stalemate on the US debt
Landing” of China economy and
ceiling, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and an escalation in tensions between China and
now 2013’s cyclical recovery will
Japan.
be led mainly by investment and
■■ The biggest worry among investors is that China’s banking system nonperforming loans
exports.
(NPLs) will rise substantially; expectations are that they will continue to rise in the coming two
to three quarters, but will peak later in the year.
India
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ To reduce the current account gap, India increased import tax on gold for the second time in
10 months; the figure now stand at 6%.
With the Supreme Court’s diktat ■■ With an increase in the diesel price by 45 paise per litre, the government has decided to do
to the government of India to away with the subsidy thereby allowing the state-owned oil companies to charge the market
explain the underlying reasons rate.
for the ‘daredevil reforms’ – ■■ Purchasing activity in the manufacturing sector increased for 45th successive month reflecting
read foreign direct investments in a healthy PMI of 54.7 in December, compared to 53.7 in November
(FDI) in retail – the euphoria
Negatives
over these recent reforms seem
■■ Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, reduced the benchmark interest rate to
to be fading away. Indeed,
7.75% from 8% thanks to the easing of India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI ) at 7.18% in
the government’s political
December 2012 against 7.24% in November.
posturing cannot last long since
it would be imperative for them ■■ India revised their GDP growth to 5.5% for the year ending March 2013, a sharp decline from
to announce populist measures the last 10 years’ average of 7.8%.
ahead of the general elections ■■ The ruling Indian National Congress suffered a humiliating defeat in the State of Gujarat
scheduled in 2014. and with nine more states going for election this year, speculations are rife about the
implementation of some of the unpopular reforms.
11
12. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Equities
EQUITIES
Other Emerging Markets (South Korea, Russia, Brazil)
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ According to the Economic Development Ministry’s estimates, Russia’s GDP growth for
January-November of 2012 was 3.5%
With the Brazilian presidential ■■ Park Geun-hye won the South Korean presidential election to become the country’s first
election due in 2014, officials female leader. She is the daugther of Park Chung-hee, who ruled for 18 years and transformed
will do whatever it takes to meet the country from the ruins of the 1950-53 Korean War into an industrial powerhouse.
their forecast of 4% growth Negatives
this year. Further stimulus ■■ Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index closed out 2012 at 5.84%, down only slightly from
may come partly in the form a 6.5% advance in 2011. The central bank has an inflation target of 4.5%, with a tolerance
of yet more giveaway credits band of two points above and below that, putting the 2011 inflation at the limit.
from state banks. But policy is
■■ At the same time that the inflation outlook has worsened, so have growth expectations in
already very loose. The central
Brazil. The central bank survey of economists showed a consensus figure for 2013 growth of
bank’s benchmark rate is less
only 3.2%, down from 3.26% a week earlier. Growth in 2012 was only about 1.0%.
than 1.5% in real terms. Any
further stimulus is more likely to
push up inflation than growth.
Also, the performance of the
MSCI BRIC Index lagged behind
global equities for a record
third year. This was largely
due to investors’ concern over
government interference in
markets. Mutual funds that
invest in BRIC nations have
posted USD1.65bn of outflows
in 2012, and this trend will
probably persist in 2013
Source: Nomura, IBGE
■■ Russia is pushing for growth of at least 5% in 2013, up from 3.5% in 2012. Russia has not seen
that level of growth since 2008 and official forecasts do not predict that it will be achieved
again soon. Prime Minister Medvedev called for more steps to improve the business climate
and loosen state control, but so far reforms and the privatisation push are stumbling.
■■ South Korea’s central bank on Friday cut its 2013 growth forecast to 2.8% from a previous
estimate of 3.2%, its third downgrade in a year, reinforcing expectations for another interest
rate cut in South Korea in the months ahead.
12
13. COMMODITIES
Equities
Energy
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ Tension is flaring up in North Africa.
■■ OPEC cut December output to the lowest level since Oct11.
We remain Neutral. The Negatives
situation in the Middle East ■■ On-going debt concerns in Europe and the challenging fiscal situation in the US may weigh
remains complicated and the on sentiment.
latest flare up of tension in
■■ United States is quickly ramping up energy production in a bid to become energy independent
Algeria and Mali is adding to the
by 2020.
geopolitical instability. In Syria,
the civil war rages on with no
end in sight. Chinese GDP came
in above expectations which,
too, adding some support to
energy prices in the short term.
However, our fundamental
assessment remains the same in
that we believe that economic
growth will face headwinds as
nations need to bring debt levels
to a sustainable level. Therefore,
we believe energy prices will be
range bound for the foreseeable
future.
Precious Metals
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Positive ■■ Signs of shortage of physical silver are appearing. The US mint suspended sales of silver
eagles after running out of inventory.
We remain strongly positive on ■■ Gold is a good hedge against currency debasement and future inflation.
precious metals for 2013 and ■■ Gold and gold mining shares remain an under-owned asset class compared to financial assets.
beyond. The case for precious
Negatives
metals remains as solid as ever.
■■ Near-term volatility to persist
Little has been done to bring
down excessive debt levels and
policy makers continue to treat
the crisis like a liquidity problem
rather than a question about
solvency. In the US, the fiscal
cliff was narrowly avoided but
the increases in taxes, around
USD60bn per annum, do very
little to address the annual
deficit which during 2011 ran
at more than USD1,000bn.
Overall, we continue to see gold
and related mining shares as
key building blocks in portfolios
offering a good hedge against
many of the risks that we see on
the investment horizon during
2013 and beyond.
13
14. The Henley Outlook February 2013
Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Equities
Commodities
Industrial Metals
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ Currency debasement will support real asset prices.
Negatives
We maintain our neutral view on ■■ Growth in China for 2012 came in at a 13-year low.
base metals. The world economy ■■ Uncertainties in how Europe and US will tackle their debt burden will weight on confidence
is facing headwinds with China and growth.
reporting its slowest growth
for 2012 in 13 years. We see
better value in other commodity
sectors at the moment.
Agriculture
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Positive and Negative ■■ UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates there will be over nine billion mouths to
feed on the planet by 2050.
There are two very different ■■ Middle class consumers in BRIC economies are increasingly demanding more varied and
markets playing out in the protein-rich foods. As affluence increases, protein from beef, sheep, poultry, pigs, cows and
agriculture sector –physical fish may in turn displace grains in diets.
and equity. Many physical soft ■■ Urbanisation and life expectancy is expected to increase.
commodity prices have exploded
Negatives
due to changing global weather
■■ Prices are subject to many uncontrollable risks, eg, weather and natural disasters, politics and
patterns over the past few
other pests.
months, however these sharp
price increases tend to be followed ■■ Prices are subject to many uncontrollable risks, eg, weather and natural disasters, politics and
with just as sharp falls. With many other pests.
soft commodity prices at or near ■■ Due to recent drought
record highs we have a negative conditions in the American
view on investing and encourage Mid-West and Russian Black
profit taking. On the equity side, Sea regions we have seen corn,
the largest weighting funds have wheat and soy prices increase
to this sector is via fertilizer and on average over 50% within a
seed companies which have a few months.
significantly more important role
to play to increase yield and in the
case of seed companies, invent
seed which is tolerant to changing
global weather patterns. We
remain positive agriculture equity
Source: DWS
funds.
14
15. Alternative Investment
Equities
HENLEY ASSESSMENT Positives
Neutral ■■ Hedge fund performance was positive in December. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index rose
0.6%, bringing the YTD return to 3.5%.
Broadly, hedge fund ■■ In 2012, strategy performance, though mixed, was broadly positive as shown in the chart
performance in 2012 was in right-hand side. The top strategies for the year were Credit followed by Equity Long-short and
line with investor expectations. Relative Value.
However, consolidation of this ■■ A number of fundamentally-oriented managers reported excellent trading profits in 2012.
industry continuously goes on. It Managers with longer-term holding periods and higher conviction positions tended to be the
is our long-term expectation that winners as equity moves appeared to depend on value-based metrics.
delivery of absolute returns with ■■ In September 2012, the asset under management in the hedge fund industry reached an all-
little reliance on market beta will time peak of USD2.2tn. We expect this number will continue to grow in 2013 given the money
constantly become the core of printing environment worldwide.
hedge fund/alternative investing
in 2013. Negatives
■■ The worst-performing
strategy was Global Macro.
In particular, Managed
Futures underperformed as
momentum factors failed to
materialise across markets
in 2012.
■■ Looking ahead, the
problems with market
timing are still difficult for
most of managers. The
“risk-on”, “risk-off” dynamics
which had plagued
Source: FRM Viewpoint Nov
managers’ return since
2011 were perceived as a persistent threat through 2013.
■■ With some equity markets up double-digit in 2012, it did make it difficult for investors to
decide whether they should leave their money with those manager with unsatisfactory
performance. Alpha from manager became a dominant factor which leads the market
competition more compelling in 2013.
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