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Erik Ljungberg, Corporate Relations




   1
Year-end Report 2008
Jan Ytterberg, CFO




  2
2008 – highlights


    All time high earnings
      Operating income SEK 12,512 m.
    –
    – High returns

    Cash flow focus
        Cash conversion
    –




3
Profitable growth
                 Vehicles & Services
                    SEK m.                                                       Percent
                    100,000                                                          55
Net sales                                         EBIT Margin       Revenue
                                     ROCE
                                                                                       50
                     90,000
growth 5%                                                                              45
                     80,000
                                                                                       40
EBIT growth 4%       70,000
                                                                                       35
                     60,000
                                                                                       30
ROCE 43.1%           50,000
                                                                                       25
                     40,000
                                                                                       20
                     30,000
                                                                                       15
                     20,000                                                            10
                     10,000                                                            5

                         0                                                             0
                              1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




4
Volume development
         Total deliveries, trucks and buses
                     Units
                    24,000
Deliveries -18%
in Q4               20,000


Adjusting           16,000

production rate
                    12,000

Decrease in
                     8,000
Europe
                     4,000


                         0
                                                                                    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
                             Q1 Q2 Q3Q4   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
                               2004         2005           2006          2007         2008




5
Service business is growing
            Service revenue and rolling fleet
                     Units                                                                  SEK m.
                                                                                            18,000
                    600,000
Capitalising                                                Rolling fleet
                                       Service revenue
on increasing                                                                               16,000
                    500,000
vehicle                                                                                     14,000

population          400,000
                                                                                            12,000

                                                                                            10,000
                    300,000
Increased
prices                                                                                       8,000
                    200,000
                                                                                             4,000
Gradually           100,000
                                                                                             2,000
lower demand
                                                                                             0
                         0
in 2008                       1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




6
Operating income
                      Vehicles & Services


EBIT growth due to:
    – Price increases
      new vehicles and                            Price
                                              -New veicles
      services               EBIT increase:    - Services

                             + SEK 466 m.
Negative impact:             2008              Deliveries

    – Deliveries                              Used vehicles
                                              Raw material
    – R&D                                         R&D
    – Used vehicles
    – Raw material



7
Cash flow
                    Vehicles & Services
                       SEK m.
                        4,000
Increase of
tied up capital          3,000


Capacity                 2,000

investments
                         1,000

Focus areas:                                                                                                   Q4
                             0
    – Inventory                   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4      Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4     Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4       Q1 Q2 Q3
                                     2004            2005            2006            2007             2008
      reduction         - 1,000

    – Postponing
                        - 2,000
      investments
                                  Note: Excluding acquisitions/divestments and Financial Services



8
Volume driven growth
         Credit portfolio, Financial Services
                     SEK m.
                      50,000
Portfolio +14%,
                     45,000
local currencies
                     40,000

Increased bad debt   35,000

                     30,000
provisions
                     25,000

Collection focus     20,000

                     15,000

                     10,000

                      5,000

                          0
                               1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




9
Bad debt expenses

     Percent
        0.80
                                                         Bad debt ratio     Write-off ratio
       0.70

       0.60

       0.50

       0.40

       0.30

       0.20

       0.10

       0.00
               1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003     2004    2005   2006   2007     2008




10
Conservative refinancing policy


Increased credit
facilities
                          +90%
Credit facilities
unutilised                          SEK
                                  26,800 m.
                       SEK
                     14,210 m.

                     Facilities   Facilities
                                   End 2008
                      End 2007




11
Building shareholder value

                     SEK                                                      Percent
                      12                                                          45
Net income +4%                                         EPS (SEK)
                                            ROE
                                                                                    40
                      10
Net margin 10.0%                                                                    35

                       8                                                            30
Earnings per share
                                                                                    25
SEK 11.11 (10.69)      6
                                                                                    20

Return on equity       4                                                            15

38.3% (35.0)                                                                        10
                       2
                                                                                    5

                       0                                                            0
                           1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




12
Conclusion


     All time high earnings

     Focus on cash flow

     Proposed dividend of SEK 2.50 per share




13
14
Outlook
Leif Östling, President and CEO




   15
Market developments
                      Trucks 2008


     Rapid fall in demand Q4 2008

     High inventory level in the industry

     Extensive supply from inventory

     Invoicing is a better indicator
     for demand than order bookings




16
Truck deliveries 2008


     Western Europe -4%

     Central and eastern Europe -15%

     Latin America +10%

     Asia +11%




17
Scania production flexibility


     Concentration of axle and gearbox production
     completed

     Common global product range

     Cost structure with 70% sourced material




18
Scania production flexibility


     Time banks +/- 200 h per employee
       Flexibility of 10 weeks
     –
     – Currently a surplus of 5 weeks

     Temporary contracts – reduction from 12,000
     to 10,000 employees in production

     Training to accelerate efficiency and
     productivity
         Potential improvement of 20% in one year
     –


19
Service business is growing


Low volatility

Increased
penetration rate

New services

Boost efficiency
and utilisation

~50% of volume in
captive network


20
Outlook


     Due to the current difficult market conditions,
     the uncertainty for the coming quarters is high

     Long-term prospects for economic growth
     remain good and will lead to increasing need
     for transport equipment and services




21
Historical volume development

       Units
     180,000

     160,000

     140,000

     120,000
                                                                                                   -20%
     100,000
                                                                                     -30%
      80,000
                                                                  -35%
      60,000

      40,000

      20,000

          0
               1946   1950   1954   1958   1962   1966   1970   1974   1978   1982   1986   1990   1994   1998   2002   2006




22
23
Mandatory bid from Porsche
     The Board recommends not accepting the offer


     Scania has a strong business with best in
     class profitability and excellent long-term
     prospects, plan of reaching 150,000 deliveries
     mid of next decade remains unchanged

     Shareholders have been offered minimum
     price prescribed by applicable rules

     Whilst recognising current financial market
     volatility, the offer does not reflect the long-
     term value of Scania

24
25

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Scania Presentation-Q4-2008_tcm10-227202

  • 1. Press conference Erik Ljungberg, Corporate Relations 1
  • 2. Year-end Report 2008 Jan Ytterberg, CFO 2
  • 3. 2008 – highlights All time high earnings Operating income SEK 12,512 m. – – High returns Cash flow focus Cash conversion – 3
  • 4. Profitable growth Vehicles & Services SEK m. Percent 100,000 55 Net sales EBIT Margin Revenue ROCE 50 90,000 growth 5% 45 80,000 40 EBIT growth 4% 70,000 35 60,000 30 ROCE 43.1% 50,000 25 40,000 20 30,000 15 20,000 10 10,000 5 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4
  • 5. Volume development Total deliveries, trucks and buses Units 24,000 Deliveries -18% in Q4 20,000 Adjusting 16,000 production rate 12,000 Decrease in 8,000 Europe 4,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 5
  • 6. Service business is growing Service revenue and rolling fleet Units SEK m. 18,000 600,000 Capitalising Rolling fleet Service revenue on increasing 16,000 500,000 vehicle 14,000 population 400,000 12,000 10,000 300,000 Increased prices 8,000 200,000 4,000 Gradually 100,000 2,000 lower demand 0 0 in 2008 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6
  • 7. Operating income Vehicles & Services EBIT growth due to: – Price increases new vehicles and Price -New veicles services EBIT increase: - Services + SEK 466 m. Negative impact: 2008 Deliveries – Deliveries Used vehicles Raw material – R&D R&D – Used vehicles – Raw material 7
  • 8. Cash flow Vehicles & Services SEK m. 4,000 Increase of tied up capital 3,000 Capacity 2,000 investments 1,000 Focus areas: Q4 0 – Inventory Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 reduction - 1,000 – Postponing - 2,000 investments Note: Excluding acquisitions/divestments and Financial Services 8
  • 9. Volume driven growth Credit portfolio, Financial Services SEK m. 50,000 Portfolio +14%, 45,000 local currencies 40,000 Increased bad debt 35,000 30,000 provisions 25,000 Collection focus 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 9
  • 10. Bad debt expenses Percent 0.80 Bad debt ratio Write-off ratio 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10
  • 11. Conservative refinancing policy Increased credit facilities +90% Credit facilities unutilised SEK 26,800 m. SEK 14,210 m. Facilities Facilities End 2008 End 2007 11
  • 12. Building shareholder value SEK Percent 12 45 Net income +4% EPS (SEK) ROE 40 10 Net margin 10.0% 35 8 30 Earnings per share 25 SEK 11.11 (10.69) 6 20 Return on equity 4 15 38.3% (35.0) 10 2 5 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12
  • 13. Conclusion All time high earnings Focus on cash flow Proposed dividend of SEK 2.50 per share 13
  • 14. 14
  • 16. Market developments Trucks 2008 Rapid fall in demand Q4 2008 High inventory level in the industry Extensive supply from inventory Invoicing is a better indicator for demand than order bookings 16
  • 17. Truck deliveries 2008 Western Europe -4% Central and eastern Europe -15% Latin America +10% Asia +11% 17
  • 18. Scania production flexibility Concentration of axle and gearbox production completed Common global product range Cost structure with 70% sourced material 18
  • 19. Scania production flexibility Time banks +/- 200 h per employee Flexibility of 10 weeks – – Currently a surplus of 5 weeks Temporary contracts – reduction from 12,000 to 10,000 employees in production Training to accelerate efficiency and productivity Potential improvement of 20% in one year – 19
  • 20. Service business is growing Low volatility Increased penetration rate New services Boost efficiency and utilisation ~50% of volume in captive network 20
  • 21. Outlook Due to the current difficult market conditions, the uncertainty for the coming quarters is high Long-term prospects for economic growth remain good and will lead to increasing need for transport equipment and services 21
  • 22. Historical volume development Units 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 -20% 100,000 -30% 80,000 -35% 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 22
  • 23. 23
  • 24. Mandatory bid from Porsche The Board recommends not accepting the offer Scania has a strong business with best in class profitability and excellent long-term prospects, plan of reaching 150,000 deliveries mid of next decade remains unchanged Shareholders have been offered minimum price prescribed by applicable rules Whilst recognising current financial market volatility, the offer does not reflect the long- term value of Scania 24
  • 25. 25