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MEGA-TRENDS
INFRASTRUCTURE
June 2011




        Luis Ajamil
        Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
As we look at mega-trends in facilities and
infrastructure, ports and cities need to think
         long-term and strategically



  Cruise lines are thinking short-term and
                operationally
Yesterday…………..

• Line executives indicated that the future
    growth will occur when …….



• Consumer demand
    •   New offerings besides the fall leaves
• Profitability –
    •   Relative to other regions
    •   Strength of the currencies
•   More ships to allow further deployment
What and when will it take?
7


6

5


4

3


2

1


0
    1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15
Market and growth
Worldwide expansion




       1960    1970   1980   1990   2000   2010
Worldwide and regional expansion
Conventional cruise passengers, 1995 - 2009

                    18,000

                    16,000

                    14,000

                    12,000
Passengers ('000)




                    10,000

                     8,000

                     6,000

                     4,000

                     2,000

                        0




                             Asia     Europe   North America

                                                      Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A, 2010
North American capacity placement

 35,000,000


 30,000,000


 25,000,000


 20,000,000


 15,000,000


 10,000,000


  5,000,000


         0
          1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007    2008


                                        Caribbean

                                                                                Source: B&A, 2009.
North American vs. European growth

 22.5%
                  9/11               U.S. recession
 20.0%        + Iraq War
 17.5%

 15.0%

 12.5%

 10.0%

  7.5%

  5.0%

  2.5%

  0.0%

 -2.5%

 -5.0%


                     N.A.   Europe
European cruise market growth


        180,000                                                      7,000,000

        160,000
                                                                     6,000,000
        140,000
                                                                     5,000,000
        120,000




                                                                                 Passengers
        100,000                                                      4,000,000
 Beds




         80,000                                                      3,000,000

         60,000
                                                                     2,000,000
         40,000
                                                                     1,000,000
         20,000

             0                                                       0




                  Bed Capacity (Demand)   Market Capacity (Supply)
0
                                   2,000,000
                                               4,000,000
                                                           6,000,000
                                                                       8,000,000
                                                                                   10,000,000
                                                                                                             14,000,000
                                                                                                                              16,000,000
                                                                                                                                           18,000,000




                                                                                                12,000,000
           Magic Kingdom
                Disneyland
      Global cruiseindustry
          Tokyo Disneyland
                EuroDisney
                Disney Sea
                     EPCOT
 Disneys Hollywood Studios
    Disney Animal Kingdom
           Universal Studios
                  Everland
Disney California Adventure
                  Seaworld
           Universal Studios
                                                                                                                                                        Top 25 worldwide attractions




               Ocean Park
     Nagashima Island Spa
       Islands of Adventure
    Hong Kong Disneyland
   Yokohama Hakkejimma
           Universal Studios
                Lotte World
               Europa Park
                  SeaWorld
            Busch Gardens
                De Efteling
             Tivoli Gardens
                                                                                                                     36 million
Strategic industry growth factors

             FACTORS                    CONSTRAINT
           PASSENGERS               >+40 M (NA only annual)
              SHIPS                          YES
           SHIP YARDS                   12-14 SHIPS/YR
      CAPITAL / PROFITABILITY                 NO
      MANAGEMENT CAPACITY                     NO
     CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS               YES and NO
               FUEL                        YES (NO)
           ITINERARIES                   EXPANSION
       WARM WEATHER PORTS                EXPANSION
          COMPETITION                  FEW COMPANIES
Vessel deliveries

16


14


12


10


 8


 6


 4


 2


 0
     1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Long-term vision
What’s realistic?

•   A little or no-growth vision
•   A moderate growth vision
    •   Mediterranean maturity
    •   Return of the US economy




•   Capital investments have to last for the long-term
•   Take years to execute
South Florida homeports
  9,000,000


  8,000,000


  7,000,000


  6,000,000


  5,000,000
              Formative years        MIAMI
                                  Consolidation   New growth
  4,000,000


  3,000,000


  2,000,000
                                PORT EVERGLADES
  1,000,000


         0
Ships
Average passengers per ship by year of construction

  4,000


  3,500                                                                           3456


  3,000
                                                                           2845
                                                             2703   2714
  2,500

                                                      2200
                                        2098   2077
  2,000
                   1782          1833

  1,500                   1464
            1427

  1,000




          On average cruise ships are increasing 500 passengers every
                                  three years
Fleet size projections
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

 0%
      2011     2015        2020      2025        2030     2035         2040

        >2500 passengers      >3000 passengers      >4000 passengers
Homeports
Developing future infrastructure
•   CNE region has already put in a considerable effort…
    •   NYC homeport berths – Manhattan and Brooklyn
    •   Boston, Portland
    •   Saint John – Cruise reception facilities
    •   Halifax – Cruise Pier redevelopment
    •   Sydney, Charlottetown, etc. with new berth and reception
        facilities…

•   BUT… to compete globally the region must focus on:
    •   Marine infrastructure to accommodate future vessels
    •   Consistent across the region

•   Soft support infrastructure to compete for future
    passengers
     • Diverse in each destination
     • Consistent in its quality and delivery
Homeport passenger movements – small ships

2,000
1,800
1,600




                        TIME SEPARATION
1,400
1,200
1,000       DIS
                                             EMBARKATION
        EMBARKATION
 800
 600
 400
 200
   0




                DISEMBARKING              ARRIVING   EMBARKING
Homeport passenger movements - today
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000       DIS
                             EMBARKATION
        EMBARKATION
 800
 600
 400
 200
   0




              DISEMBARKING     ARRIVING    EMBARKING
The evolution of the cruise terminal




 TEMPORARY
   FACILITY




 CONVERSION OF
    EXISTING
   BUILDING

                  NEW
                 FACILITY




                               JOINT
                            DEVELOPMENT
The future terminal

• Focus on processing passengers at the least
  cost

• Lines expect better functioning terminals
  •   Larger
  •   More comfort
  •   Two level operations
  •   Multiple gangways
  •   Elevators, escalators, etc
Traditional terminal concept



                      Apron


     T                    T         T
    GTA                  GTA       GTA


   PARKING              PARKING   PARKIN
Combined terminal / off-site transportation


                       Apron


                        T



                       GTA

                     PARKING
Alternative




       Provisioning      Quad Terminal   Provisioning




                                             GTA /
                                             Parking
                      Parking C




                                                  Existing Cargo Area
Central terminal alternatives
Set performance standards
Passenger experience
Facilities without operational targets…

• Will not work anymore
•   Ships are too big
•   Too many passengers



•   There is no such thing as a small ship or large ship port
    •   The complexity of the fleet
    •   The introduction of multiple class vessels
    •   The mobility of the fleet


•   All ports must be flexible to support universal designs
Performance standards
  •   Passenger experience
      •   Time
      •   Flow
      •   Queues
      •   Spaciousness
      •   Direction
      •   Friendliness
  •   Cruise company
      •   Cost
      •   Efficiency
      •   Labor
      •   Turn around time
      •   Passenger experience
  •   Destination
      •   Revenues and costs
      •   Volumes
LOS – time to process

                                          Time to process
                                          Levels of service

      Level of service                Total check-in          Total disembark


              LOS A                      10 min                  20 min


               LOS B                     15 min                  30 min


              LOS C                      20 min                  40 min


              LOS D                      25 min                  50 min


               LOS E                     30 min                  60 min


               LOS F                    >30 min                  >60 min
        Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS – walking distances

                                     Walking distances
                                     Levels of service

     Level of service                 Feet               Meters


             LOS A                   <500                <150


              LOS B                  1,500                500


             LOS C                   2,500                800


             LOS D                   3,000               1,000


              LOS E                  4,000               1,300


              LOS F                  >5,000              1,600
       Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS - corridor capacity
                               Corridor capacity (passengers per minute)
                                           Levels of service

                                                Corridor width in meters
 Level of service
                                2       3         4       4.5        5      6    6.5

             LOS A             66       99      132       165       198    231   264

             LOS B             77      115      154       192       231    269   308

            LOS C              88      132      176       220       264    308   352

             LOS D             98      146      195       244       293    342   390

             LOS E             110     164      219       274       329    384   438

             LOS F             124     185      247       309       371    433   494
 Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS - Queuing / waiting capacity

                             Spaciousness


    Level of service (LOS)                   Metric


               LOS A              1.3 mt2 per person or greater


               LOS B                 1.0-1.3 mt2 per person


               LOS C                 0.7-1.0 mt2 per person


               LOS D                 0.3-0.7 mt2 per person


               LOS E                 0.2-0.3 mt2 per person


               LOS F                0.2 mt2 per person or less
Ports-of-call evolution
How has other regions re-invented themselves?

•   Different developments
•   Evolving ideas




•   From a simple pier to………………
St Thomas
St Thomas
Ensenada
Ensenada Cruise Port Village
Ensenada Cruise Port Village
Punta Langosta, Cozumel, Mexico
Puerta Maya, Cozumel, Mexico
St. Maarten Cruise Port
Disney’s Castaway Cay
Costa Maya, Mahaual, Mexico
Costa Maya
Grand Turk Cruise center
GTCC
Roatan, Royal Caribbean
Mahogany Bay, Roatan Carnival
Falmouth, Jamaica
Falmouth
35.00%
                                                  40.00%
                                                           45.00%
                                                                    50.00%
                                                                             55.00%
                                                                                      60.00%
                                                                                               65.00%
                                                                                                        70.00%
                                                                                                                 75.00%
                                                                                                                          80.00%




                                30.00%
                Costa Rica
               Cartagena
              Guatemala
                       Belize
                 Dominica
                  Honduras
                    St Lucia
                 Acapulco
                  Jamaica
         Cayman Islands
                Nicaragua
         StKitts and Nevis
                 Barbados
                  Grenada
                  Curacao
                 Ensenada
                      Aruba
   Trindiad and Tobago
         US Virgin Islands
                   Cozumel
                  Huatulco
                                                                                                                                   Percent of passengers taking tours




St Vincent / Grenadines
    Dominican Republic
      Antigua / Barbuda
        Cabo San Lucas
                St Maarten
                  Bahamas
               Puerto Rico
        Turks and Caicos
$100.00
                                                                                      $120.00
                                                                                                $140.00
                                                                                                                    $180.00
                                                                                                                              $200.00



                                                                                                          $160.00




                                $0.00
                                        $20.00
                                                 $40.00
                                                          $60.00
                                                                   $80.00
         US Virgin Islands
                St Maarten
                   Cozumel
               Puerto Rico
        St Kitts and Nevis
               Cartagena
                  Jamaica
         Cayman Islands
                       Belize
                 Acapulco
                      Aruba
                  Bahamas
                  Curacao
         Cabo San Lucas
      Antigua / Barbuda
                  Honduras
                 Barbados
                    St Lucia
                Costa Rica
                                                                                                                                        Total expenditure per passenger




        Turks and Caicos
               Guatemala
                 Ensenada
                  Huatulco
                  Grenada
   Trinidad and Tobago
                 Dominica
    Dominican Republic
                Nicaragua
St Vincent / Grenadines
Mega-trends
Keys
•   Think strategically
    •   Community issues
    •   Port’s mission
    •   Short – term solutions without a strategic plan will be short lived and
        more expensive
•   Think financially
    •   How to finance the project
    •   Stay competitive with the industry
    •   Not considering pricing in design will create problems
•   Think functionally
    •   Listen to your users and stakeholders
•   Think globally –
    •   Comparing yourself against your neighbor – this is a global
        business
•   Focus on all parts of the business
    •   Operations
    •   Third party costs to the lines
Mega-trends

•   Plan for the long-term
•   Execute for the mid-term
•   Plan for the large ships
•   Improve the destination
•   Create performance standards
•   Improve the passenger experience
•   New creative offerings
MEGA-TRENDS
INFRASTRUCTURE
June 2011




        Luis Ajamil
        Bermello, Ajamil & Partners

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5 Luis Ajamil New York Cruise Symposium June 2011

  • 1. MEGA-TRENDS INFRASTRUCTURE June 2011 Luis Ajamil Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  • 2. As we look at mega-trends in facilities and infrastructure, ports and cities need to think long-term and strategically Cruise lines are thinking short-term and operationally
  • 3. Yesterday………….. • Line executives indicated that the future growth will occur when ……. • Consumer demand • New offerings besides the fall leaves • Profitability – • Relative to other regions • Strength of the currencies • More ships to allow further deployment
  • 4. What and when will it take? 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
  • 6. Worldwide expansion 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 7. Worldwide and regional expansion Conventional cruise passengers, 1995 - 2009 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Passengers ('000) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Asia Europe North America Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A, 2010
  • 8. North American capacity placement 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Caribbean Source: B&A, 2009.
  • 9. North American vs. European growth 22.5% 9/11 U.S. recession 20.0% + Iraq War 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% N.A. Europe
  • 10. European cruise market growth 180,000 7,000,000 160,000 6,000,000 140,000 5,000,000 120,000 Passengers 100,000 4,000,000 Beds 80,000 3,000,000 60,000 2,000,000 40,000 1,000,000 20,000 0 0 Bed Capacity (Demand) Market Capacity (Supply)
  • 11. 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 12,000,000 Magic Kingdom Disneyland Global cruiseindustry Tokyo Disneyland EuroDisney Disney Sea EPCOT Disneys Hollywood Studios Disney Animal Kingdom Universal Studios Everland Disney California Adventure Seaworld Universal Studios Top 25 worldwide attractions Ocean Park Nagashima Island Spa Islands of Adventure Hong Kong Disneyland Yokohama Hakkejimma Universal Studios Lotte World Europa Park SeaWorld Busch Gardens De Efteling Tivoli Gardens 36 million
  • 12. Strategic industry growth factors FACTORS CONSTRAINT PASSENGERS >+40 M (NA only annual) SHIPS YES SHIP YARDS 12-14 SHIPS/YR CAPITAL / PROFITABILITY NO MANAGEMENT CAPACITY NO CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS YES and NO FUEL YES (NO) ITINERARIES EXPANSION WARM WEATHER PORTS EXPANSION COMPETITION FEW COMPANIES
  • 13. Vessel deliveries 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
  • 15. What’s realistic? • A little or no-growth vision • A moderate growth vision • Mediterranean maturity • Return of the US economy • Capital investments have to last for the long-term • Take years to execute
  • 16. South Florida homeports 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Formative years MIAMI Consolidation New growth 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 PORT EVERGLADES 1,000,000 0
  • 17. Ships
  • 18. Average passengers per ship by year of construction 4,000 3,500 3456 3,000 2845 2703 2714 2,500 2200 2098 2077 2,000 1782 1833 1,500 1464 1427 1,000 On average cruise ships are increasing 500 passengers every three years
  • 19. Fleet size projections 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 >2500 passengers >3000 passengers >4000 passengers
  • 21. Developing future infrastructure • CNE region has already put in a considerable effort… • NYC homeport berths – Manhattan and Brooklyn • Boston, Portland • Saint John – Cruise reception facilities • Halifax – Cruise Pier redevelopment • Sydney, Charlottetown, etc. with new berth and reception facilities… • BUT… to compete globally the region must focus on: • Marine infrastructure to accommodate future vessels • Consistent across the region • Soft support infrastructure to compete for future passengers • Diverse in each destination • Consistent in its quality and delivery
  • 22. Homeport passenger movements – small ships 2,000 1,800 1,600 TIME SEPARATION 1,400 1,200 1,000 DIS EMBARKATION EMBARKATION 800 600 400 200 0 DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
  • 23. Homeport passenger movements - today 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 DIS EMBARKATION EMBARKATION 800 600 400 200 0 DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
  • 24. The evolution of the cruise terminal TEMPORARY FACILITY CONVERSION OF EXISTING BUILDING NEW FACILITY JOINT DEVELOPMENT
  • 25. The future terminal • Focus on processing passengers at the least cost • Lines expect better functioning terminals • Larger • More comfort • Two level operations • Multiple gangways • Elevators, escalators, etc
  • 26. Traditional terminal concept Apron T T T GTA GTA GTA PARKING PARKING PARKIN
  • 27. Combined terminal / off-site transportation Apron T GTA PARKING
  • 28. Alternative Provisioning Quad Terminal Provisioning GTA / Parking Parking C Existing Cargo Area
  • 30.
  • 33. Facilities without operational targets… • Will not work anymore • Ships are too big • Too many passengers • There is no such thing as a small ship or large ship port • The complexity of the fleet • The introduction of multiple class vessels • The mobility of the fleet • All ports must be flexible to support universal designs
  • 34. Performance standards • Passenger experience • Time • Flow • Queues • Spaciousness • Direction • Friendliness • Cruise company • Cost • Efficiency • Labor • Turn around time • Passenger experience • Destination • Revenues and costs • Volumes
  • 35. LOS – time to process Time to process Levels of service Level of service Total check-in Total disembark LOS A 10 min 20 min LOS B 15 min 30 min LOS C 20 min 40 min LOS D 25 min 50 min LOS E 30 min 60 min LOS F >30 min >60 min Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  • 36. LOS – walking distances Walking distances Levels of service Level of service Feet Meters LOS A <500 <150 LOS B 1,500 500 LOS C 2,500 800 LOS D 3,000 1,000 LOS E 4,000 1,300 LOS F >5,000 1,600 Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  • 37. LOS - corridor capacity Corridor capacity (passengers per minute) Levels of service Corridor width in meters Level of service 2 3 4 4.5 5 6 6.5 LOS A 66 99 132 165 198 231 264 LOS B 77 115 154 192 231 269 308 LOS C 88 132 176 220 264 308 352 LOS D 98 146 195 244 293 342 390 LOS E 110 164 219 274 329 384 438 LOS F 124 185 247 309 371 433 494 Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  • 38. LOS - Queuing / waiting capacity Spaciousness Level of service (LOS) Metric LOS A 1.3 mt2 per person or greater LOS B 1.0-1.3 mt2 per person LOS C 0.7-1.0 mt2 per person LOS D 0.3-0.7 mt2 per person LOS E 0.2-0.3 mt2 per person LOS F 0.2 mt2 per person or less
  • 40. How has other regions re-invented themselves? • Different developments • Evolving ideas • From a simple pier to………………
  • 45.
  • 54. GTCC
  • 59. 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 30.00% Costa Rica Cartagena Guatemala Belize Dominica Honduras St Lucia Acapulco Jamaica Cayman Islands Nicaragua StKitts and Nevis Barbados Grenada Curacao Ensenada Aruba Trindiad and Tobago US Virgin Islands Cozumel Huatulco Percent of passengers taking tours St Vincent / Grenadines Dominican Republic Antigua / Barbuda Cabo San Lucas St Maarten Bahamas Puerto Rico Turks and Caicos
  • 60. $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $180.00 $200.00 $160.00 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 US Virgin Islands St Maarten Cozumel Puerto Rico St Kitts and Nevis Cartagena Jamaica Cayman Islands Belize Acapulco Aruba Bahamas Curacao Cabo San Lucas Antigua / Barbuda Honduras Barbados St Lucia Costa Rica Total expenditure per passenger Turks and Caicos Guatemala Ensenada Huatulco Grenada Trinidad and Tobago Dominica Dominican Republic Nicaragua St Vincent / Grenadines
  • 62. Keys • Think strategically • Community issues • Port’s mission • Short – term solutions without a strategic plan will be short lived and more expensive • Think financially • How to finance the project • Stay competitive with the industry • Not considering pricing in design will create problems • Think functionally • Listen to your users and stakeholders • Think globally – • Comparing yourself against your neighbor – this is a global business • Focus on all parts of the business • Operations • Third party costs to the lines
  • 63. Mega-trends • Plan for the long-term • Execute for the mid-term • Plan for the large ships • Improve the destination • Create performance standards • Improve the passenger experience • New creative offerings
  • 64. MEGA-TRENDS INFRASTRUCTURE June 2011 Luis Ajamil Bermello, Ajamil & Partners