Vladimir Drebentsov - Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead 17/10/2013
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Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead Russia’s New Economic Association, October 17th 2013 Vladimir Drebentsov Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc http://mse-msu.ru/category/nauchnieseminary/
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Vladimir Drebentsov - Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead 17/10/2013
- 1. Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead Russia’s New Economic Association, October 17th 2013 Vladimir Drebentsov Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc
- 2. Global natural gas balance Global growth in 2012 Annual change, Bcm -20 0 20 40 EU FSU Other Middle East Asia Pacific N. America Consumption Production $/mmBtu International gas prices 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Average Japanese import price UK NBP US Henry Hub Source: includes data from ICIS Heren Energy and Energy Intelligence Group BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2013
- 3. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 US natural gas production Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes Production growth Annual change, Bcm Count Rig count Oil Gas -60 -30 0 30 60 90 2011 2012 Other Shale gas Associated BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2013
- 4. Shale gas and global supply growth Bcf/d Gas production by type and region 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other 0% 6% 12% 18% 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 RoW China Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US Shale gas production Bcf/d % of total (RHS) 4
- 5. Production and domestic consumption St Bcm Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, BP 2030 Global Energy Outlook, CDUTEK (Central Dispatch Unit of Ministry of Energy) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Production Consumption Other producers Gazprom Forecast Novatek PSA Oil com panies
- 6. Results of drilling for coal seam gas in Russia A – Expected debit, m3/day B – Actual debit, m3/day 1, 3 – Upper layers 2, 4 – Lower layers Taldynsk coal seam gas field Source: Oil and Gas Geology, N3, 2013 B
- 7. Source: CDUTEK Gas and coal supply to the power sector Mln toe 0 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gas Coal
- 8. Gas net-storage in Russia and abroad -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Storage change, Russia Storage change, abroadSt Bcm Source: Gazprom
- 9. Russia’s CNG Production 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 1H2013 St Bcm Source: CDUTEK
- 10. Small-scale LNG Plants in Russia Novgorod Announced: October, 2012 Launch: 2014 Planned capacity: 0.076 bcm Perm Launch: winter, 2013/14 Planned capacity: 0.02 bcm Petrodvorets Launch: 1996 Capacity: 0.012 bcm Kingisepp Launch: 2008 Capacity: 0.010 bcm Smolensk Announced: April, 2013 Launch: 2014 Planned capacity: 0.2 bcm Kaliningrad 1) Announced: September, 2012 Launch: 2013/14 Planned capacity: 0.034 bcm 2) In consideration Planned capacity: 0.2 bcm Kargal (Tomsk oblast) Announced: February, 2013 Launch: n/a Planned capacity: 0.03 bcm Tambov Announced: September, 2012 Launch: 2014 Planned capacity: 0.41 bcm Yekaterinburg Launch: 2010 Capacity: 0.035 bcm Pervouralsk Launch: 2002 Capacity: 0.006 bcm St Petersburg Moscow Source: IHS CERA
- 11. 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exports range 06-10 2011 2012 2013 St Bcm Russian gas flows to Europe Source: CDUTEK
- 12. US coal to gas switching Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Platts Annual change, % Power generation 0 3 6 9 -15% 0% 15% 30% 2002- 2007 2007- 2012 2011 2012 $/mmBtu Gas Coal Natural gas consumption growth Power Industrial Residential Commercial Annual change, Bcm Average gas price (RHS) -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 10 year average 2012 Power Industrial Residential Commercial BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2013
- 13. European gas-coal competition 0 20 40 60 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 Gas Coal €/MWh EU power generation cost Annual change, Mtoe 2012 changes in EU imports -40 -20 0 20 Coal Natural Gas Source: includes data from Platts, IHS McCloskey and IntercontinentalExchange Pipeline US Russia Other LNG N. Africa Russia Norway BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2013
- 14. 0 5 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec min 06-10 Exports range 06-10 2011 2012 2013 Russian gas flows to CIS Source: CDUTEK St Bcm
- 15. Gas exports by destination Source: CDUTEK 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 1H2013 Other CIS Asia-Pacific Belorussia Ukraine Europe
- 16. Launch: 2018 Planned capacity: 6.8 bcm Sakhalin-2 LNG Capacity: 13 bcm Sakhalin-2 LNG Expansion up to 20.4 bcm Project is under consideration New Gas in Eastern Siberia and Far East Source: Gazprom Reserves - 2000 bcm Max production - 40 bcm Reserves – 1240 bcm Max production – 50 bcm Reserves - 900 bcm Max production - 35 bcm Reserves - 870 bcm Max production – 16.9 bcm Krasnoyarsk gas production center Reserves – 16 bcm Max production – 7.5 bcm toKrasnoyarskregion up to 38 bcm up to 10 bcm
- 18. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2013 -5 0 5 10 Qatar Australia Nigeria Yemen Egypt Malaysia Indonesia 10 year average 2012 Natural gas trade LNG exportsLNG and pipeline trade Annual change, Bcm 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% -10 0 10 20 30 40 10 year average 2011 2012 Annual change, Bcm Trade share of consumption (RHS) LNG Pipeline
- 19. Gas trade and market integration 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 LNG Bcf/d LNG exports % of total consumption (RHS) LNG diversification 0 2 4 6 8 10 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Suppliers per importer Customers per exporter 1
- 21. Gas production 2012-2013 59.1 52.1 54.4 50.1 47.2 40.4 41.7 57.2 54.4 55.9 50.4 46.8 41.4 40.5 40.5 45.2 49.0 52.1 59.0 40 50 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2012 St Bcm Source: CDUTEK
- 22. Gas production per company (incl. APG) 0 50 100 150 200 250 1H2012 1H2013 Below 1 bcm St Bcm Source: CDUTEK
- 23. Gazprom’s production per fields – no scarcity of new fields 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2008 2011 2012 Other fields Other Yamal (Noyabrsk) Medvezhye and Bovanenkovskoye Urengoy Yamburg St Bcm Source: RPI
- 24. Associated petroleum gas production and flaring: Growth on easing 3rd party access 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H2013 Flared Production Source: CDUTEK
- 25. 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Russia FSU RoW Russian gas prices still vary a lot by the market $/MmBtu Source: Gazprom
- 26. Domestic gas sales and prices – tariffs will be frozen in 2014 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Industry Households Weighted Average 28% 7% 7% 21% 15% 22% Domestic sales structure Power Other Communal services Metallurgy Fertilizers Households Source: Gazprom $/MmBtu
- 27. Wholesale gas prices by country, 2012 Source: :Wholesale Gas Price Survey - 2013 Edition , International Gas Union
- 28. Gazprom’s gas business is still heavily dependent on European gas exports DirectTaxes Paid: $11.4 billionRevenue: $85.5 billion Gazprom gas sales: 422.4 St Bcm Europe 32.3% Domestic 53.5% FSU 14.2% Europe 54.6% FSU 18.9% Domestic 26.5% FSU 23.1% Domestic 24%Europe 52.9% 2012 Source: Gazprom, CDUTEK
- 29. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other Transportation of gas Crude oil and condensate Electricity and heating Oil and gas products Gas sales Sources of Gazprom’s revenue $ billion Source: Gazprom
- 30. Mineral extraction tax rate for gas – explicit discrimination of Gazprom 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2011 2012 01.01.2013 01.07.2013 2014 2015 Gazprom Others 2011=100 Source:Tax Code $0.25/ MmBtu
- 31. Gas reserves by company 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Slavneft Russneft Lukoil Rosneft Novatek Gazprom St Bcm Source: companies’ financial statements and annual reports 17% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2012
- 32. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gazprom Novatek -10.9% +51.6% +42.9% -20.8% +43.2% -55.9% +23.3% +32.1%+52.1%+68.9% Bln USD Source: Gazprom, Novatek Gazprom and Novatek CAPEX dynamics
- 33. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other Storage Retail distribution Power and heating Production of oil Gas processing Gas production Pipelines Gazprom’s CAPEX breakdown Source: Gazprom $ billion
- 34. New export routes for Russian gas in Europe North Stream Stage 1, 2 capacity: 55 bcm Further extension (st 2.3) is under consideration South Stream Distance: 900 km (sea) Planned capacity: 63 bcm Blue Stream-2 Distance: 1213 km (sea) Planned Capacity: 16 bcm Source: Gazprom, Platts Yamal-Europe II Distance: 600 km Planned capacity: 15 bcm Feasibility study due in Oct 2013 Yamal-Europe Distance: over 2000 km Capacity: 33 bln m3