Vladimir Drebentsov - Oil Market Update 24/12/2015
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December 24th 2015 Vladimir Drebentsov Oil Market Update Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc 24 декабря 2015 Докладчик: главный экономист BP по России и СНГ, вице-президент BP-Russia, д.э.н. В.В. Дребенцов Тема: Меняющийся рынок нефти http://mse-msu.ru/category/nauchnieseminary/
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Vladimir Drebentsov - Oil Market Update 24/12/2015
- 1. 1 Oil Market Update December, 2015 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc. Vice President, BP Russia
- 2. 2 80 100 120 140 фев.11 мар.12 апр.13 май.14 Eerie calm on oil market Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2015 and Platts. $/bbl Dated Brent BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP p.l.c. 2015
- 3. 3BP Statistical Review of World Energy Cumulative change since 4Q10, Mb/d -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Source: includes data from US Energy Information Administration Note: Other includes Sudan/S Sudan, Syria & Yemen Oil supply disruptions and US production growth Libya Iran Other US Net
- 4. 4 Oil market in 2014 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 10 year average 2014 10 year average 2014 Annual change, Mb/d Consumption Production Non-OECD OECD OPEC Non-OPEC Note: consumption and production totals include biofuels. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP p.l.c. 2015
- 5. 5
- 6. 6 Changing oil cost curve
- 7. 7 9 118 9 610 9 096 9 202 8 000 8 500 9 000 9 500 10 000 500 700 900 1 100 1 300 1 500 янв03,2014 мар03,2014 май03,2014 июл03,2014 сен03,2014 ноя03,2014 янв03,2015 мар03,2015 май03,2015 июл03,2015 сен03,2015 ноя03,2015 OIL RIGS, total Field Production of Crude Oil (RHS) US oil output has been declining since early June, yet still is higher than a year ago; moreover there has been increased resilience lately Units Kbd Source: US EIA, PIRA
- 8. 8 US new-well production per rig BP Statistical Review of World Energy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Gas Oil Boe/d per rig Source: US EIA
- 9. 9 Industry costs falling 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 100 150 200 250 2000 2005 2010 2015 Cost Index (2000=100) Brent $/bbl Capital Costs Operating Costs Brent (RHS) Source:: IHS
- 10. 10 Supply side reaction to lower oil price
- 11. 11 OPEC production exceeds 2014 level by 1.6 Mbd
- 12. 12 Iraqi oil output growth is slowing, yet is still 1 Mbd higher than a year ago Source: PIRA Kbd
- 13. 13 Oil demand grows strongly in both 2015 and 2016
- 14. 14 Weekly U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 4000 8000 12000 16000 Kbd Source: US EIA
- 15. 15 Oil market will likely remain oversupplied until 3Q16
- 16. 16 OECD oil stocks are at record levels and might approach physical limits in 1Q16
- 17. 17 US Total Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Excl. SPR) 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 янв05,1990 янв05,1991 янв05,1992 янв05,1993 янв05,1994 янв05,1995 янв05,1996 янв05,1997 янв05,1998 янв05,1999 янв05,2000 янв05,2001 янв05,2002 янв05,2003 янв05,2004 янв05,2005 янв05,2006 янв05,2007 янв05,2008 янв05,2009 янв05,2010 янв05,2011 янв05,2012 янв05,2013 янв05,2014 янв05,2015 Million barrels
- 18. 18 Forward price contango is insufficient to incentivize floating storage Brent forward curve spread Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2015 and Platts. $/bbl Brent Forwards, as of Dec 4, 2015 $/bbl