Russian LNG Geopolitical focus
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Russian LNG exports face both opportunities and challenges geopolitically. On one hand, LNG exports could open new markets and add flexibility to Russian gas supplies. However, it also faces competition from other LNG exporters and could undermine Russia's existing long-term gas supply contracts in Europe. Looking ahead, Russia will need to balance using LNG to enter new Asian markets while defending its dominant position in the European gas market through pipeline exports. The growth of shale gas and a potential second economic crisis also pose threats to Russian LNG ambitions.
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The European Union’s (EU) consumption of natural gas has been growing rapidly over the last two decades. Gas has become an increasingly important component of the EU’s energy mix, with gas-fired power plants gradually replacing less environmentally friendly coal plants. Domestic gas production covered close to 60 percent of the EU’s consumption needs during the 1990s, but by 2007 it declined substantially around 40 percent (see Figure 1). The rest is imported from three main sources: Russia (around 40 percent of total gas imports), Norway (around 25 percent) and various African countries among them Algeria, Nigeria, Libya and Egypt which account for around 25 percent. The last few years have also heightened public worries in Europe over the security of its gas supplies, primarily those imports coming from Russia. These fears were partly confirmed in January 2009 when several EU and non- EU countries faced a sudden cut in their gas supplies. The Russian- Ukrainian stand-off only reinforced the argument that more needs to be done to strengthen the reliability of access to vital energy resources.
Authored by: Wojciech Paczynski
Published in 2009Geoeconomic atlas of world energy. A vision of the future to 2030
Geoeconomic atlas of world energy. A vision of the future to 2030Фонд "Центр стратегических разработок "Северо-Запад"
Geoeconomic atlas of world energy.
A vision of the future to 2030
Edited by Vladimir N. Knyaginin.— St. Peterburg: Center for Strategic Research “North-West” Foundation, 2011.— 150 p.
This special edition is an abridged version of the Atlas prepared within the framework of the “Long-Term Energy Foresight of the Russian Federation” project in 2010–2011. This project was initiated by the Russian Ministry of Energy, Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation,
the Russian Federal Tariff Service and the Siberian Coal Energy Company (SUEK).
While working on the Atlas, experts of the Center for Strategic Research “North-West” Foundation focused their attention on the current trends in global economy and energy sector development. Sections of the Atlas cover prospective changes in energy resources, power consumption breakdown and government policies over the next 20–30 years.
V.N. Knyaginin – Head of Research
M.S. Lipetskaya – Head of the Working Group
Working Group: V.Yu. Kopkin, S.V. Kostyushev,
V.D. Nikolaev, L.A. Petrova, Yu.A. Ryabov
The Working Group used materials provided by:N.A. Andreeva, E.Yu. Boze, D.V. Sanatov
Design: N.V. Dynnikova
DTP: N.V. Dynnikova,
K.G. Bulgachenko, M.V. Sidorova
Technical editor: A.A. Guseva
Proofreaders: R.N. Ishbulatova-Elizavetinskaya, A.F. Kolesnik
© Center for Strategic Research “North-West” Foundation, 2011
ISBN 978-5-87417374-6Northeast Asia's Kovykta Conundrum
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Opal Of Discord. Why the EU supports Gazprom's anti-Ukrainian plans?
1) The EU's recent decision to allow Gazprom to increase capacity on the German OPAL pipeline will allow Russia to supply more gas through Nord Stream and less through Ukraine, hurting Ukraine.
2) While the EU has investigated Gazprom for antitrust violations regarding market dominance and unfair pricing, decisions like OPAL signal the EU's ambiguity in balancing business and political interests.
3) Ukraine risks losing billions annually from less Russian gas transit and should strengthen its energy diplomacy and reforms to defend its interests and lobby the EU to block projects like Nord Stream 2 that undermine Ukraine.
Nabucco and South Sream: Needless Competition
The document discusses two competing gas pipeline projects - Nabucco and South Stream - between Europe and Russia. It analyzes the challenges facing both projects, including differing partner priorities, uncertainty around gas supply sources, and political issues between countries. Key problems highlighted are the high costs of Nabucco, lack of a confirmed gas supply, and tensions between Turkey and Russia over the South Stream project. The document suggests potential solutions could involve concessions between EU, Russia and Ukraine to reduce unnecessary competition between the two pipelines.
Access to Central Asian energy resources for Asian consumers
The document discusses energy security in Asia, focusing on oil and gas reserves and consumption trends. It notes that the Middle East controls 48% of oil reserves while Central Asia controls 36% of gas reserves. Gas demand is projected to grow significantly in non-OECD states like China and India. The document also examines major gas producers and exporters in Central Asia like Turkmenistan and their shifting policies towards exporting gas to Europe versus Asia. Pipelines projects connecting Central Asia to different markets are discussed and the challenges of integrating Central Asian energy markets.
Hydrocarbons_geopolitics_2014
The document discusses natural gas supplies and infrastructure in Europe. It notes that while Europe has significant regasification capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of this capacity remains unused. It also notes that Russia currently supplies a large amount of the gas used in Europe. There is potential to diversify supplies through increased use of LNG terminals and infrastructure investments, but this would require large capital expenditures. The document also discusses Poland's shale gas resources and efforts to develop regulations to increase hydrocarbon extraction.
What does the Gas Crisis Reveal About European Energy Security?
What does the Gas Crisis Reveal About European Energy Security?The Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies
The document discusses the recent gas crisis in Europe and what it reveals about the EU's energy security and dependence on Russian gas imports. It argues that while decreasing reliance on Russian gas may improve energy security, it is not feasible in the short-to-medium term due to the EU's green transition goals and increased gas demand. The EU has made some progress in diversifying suppliers and infrastructure but risks remain from high gas prices, competition for LNG, and Gazprom's market power. The best solution is for the EU to implement a coordinated energy policy to strengthen its bargaining position with Russia as a large buyer of gas.Similar to Russian LNG Geopolitical focus (20)
Russia's gas pivot to Asia: a short-sighted policy or a long-term strategy?
Russia's gas pivot to Asia: a short-sighted policy or a long-term strategy?
Russia and Europe: in Useless Search of Diversification
Russia and Europe: in Useless Search of Diversification
Are Russia and the EU planning a zombie pipeline network?
Are Russia and the EU planning a zombie pipeline network?
The EU-Russia Gas Relationship: A Mutual Dependency
The EU-Russia Gas Relationship: A Mutual Dependency
Southeastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons - A new energy corridor for the EU?
Southeastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons - A new energy corridor for the EU?
CASE Network E-briefs 4.2009 - CIS gas for Europe - the transit issue
CASE Network E-briefs 4.2009 - CIS gas for Europe - the transit issue
Geoeconomic atlas of world energy. A vision of the future to 2030
Geoeconomic atlas of world energy. A vision of the future to 2030
Opal Of Discord. Why the EU supports Gazprom's anti-Ukrainian plans?
Opal Of Discord. Why the EU supports Gazprom's anti-Ukrainian plans?
Access to Central Asian energy resources for Asian consumers
Access to Central Asian energy resources for Asian consumers
What does the Gas Crisis Reveal About European Energy Security?
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