Vladimir Drebentsov - Russian Gas: What's Ahead 02/10/2014
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2 октября 2014 Докладчик: главный экономист BP по России и СНГ, вице-президент BP-Russia, д.э.н. В.В. Дребенцов Тема: Что газ грядущий нам готовит? Vladimir Drebentsov Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc http://mse-msu.ru/category/nauchnieseminary/
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Vladimir Drebentsov - Russian Gas: What's Ahead 02/10/2014
- 1. © BP 2014 Russian Gas: What’s ahead? Moscow School of Economics, MSU October 2, 2014 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc. Vice President, BP Russia
- 2. © BP 2014 Russia’s Gas production 2012-2013 St Bcm Source: CDUTEK 35 45 55 65 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2012 2014
- 3. © BP 2014 Gas production by company (incl. APG) -15 -10 -5 0 5 Jan-Jul 2013 Jan-Jul 2014 Growth, y-o-y, St Bcm Source: CDUTEK
- 4. © BP 2014 Gazprom is steadily losing domestic market to independent producers Gazprom % Source: CDUTEK, BP calculations 57 49 40 60 80 100 2005 2010 2013 1H2014 Share in production Share in consumption Share in consumption (w/o tech needs)
- 5. © BP 2014 Reduction in flaring – more gas out of brownfields 70 75 80 85 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jun-14 % Associated gas utilization Source: CDUTEK
- 6. © BP 2014 Russian gas flows to Europe 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009-13 range 2013 2014 0 20 40 60 80 J… F… M… A… M… J… J… A… S… O… N… D… 2009-13 range 2013 2014 Russian gas exports to Europe European gas storage St Bcm St Bcm Source: CDUTEK, GIE
- 7. © BP 2014 North-West Europe gas imports from Russia 177 50 81 62 38 102 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 01/01/2011 01/06/2011 01/11/2011 01/04/2012 01/09/2012 01/02/2013 01/07/2013 01/12/2013 01/05/2014 Ukrainian entry Belarus Entry Nordstream entryMcm/d Source: ENTSOG Ukrainian flows share, % Aug-13 53.6 Aug-14 30.6
- 8. © BP 2014 0 5 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exports range 2009-13 2014 2013 Source: CDUTEK St Bcm Russian gas flows to CIS
- 9. © BP 2014 How does Ukraine live without Russian gas?
- 10. © BP 2014 Russian gas prices still vary a lot by market $/ MmBtu Source: Gazprom 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Russia FSU RoW
- 11. © BP 2014 Gazprom gas revenue still heavily depends on gas exports, and Europe is the prime destination Revenue: $84.3 billionSales: 551 Rus Bcm Europe 31% Domestic 52% FSU 17% 2008 Source: Gazprom FSU 17% Europe 60% Domestic 23% 2013 Europe 39% FSU 12% Domestic 49% Sales: 462 Rus Bcm Revenue: $90.8 billion FSU 15% Europe 58% Domestic 27%
- 12. © BP 2014 Yet Russia is much less dependent on gas exports 42.6 11.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 oil gas % Source: CBR Share in total exports of goods and services
- 13. © BP 2014 Gas also contributes much less than oil to the federal budget 37 48 54 46 50 50 50 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oil&gas revenues Non-oil revenues Source: MoF Of which: 45% - oil, 5% - gas
- 14. © BP 2014 Russia’s gas production and domestic consumption 0 200 400 600 800 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Production Consumption Other independents Gazprom St Bcm Source: Central Dispatch Unit of Ministry of Energy, BP 2035 Global Energy Outlook Forecast Novatek PS A Oil com panies
- 15. © BP 2014 How much gas will Europe need to import? – EC’s view ETS price assumptions EU energy importsEU fuel mix Source: EC
- 16. © BP 2014 High uncertainty around EC’s reference scenario Source: EC,Temaplan
- 17. © BP 2014 * 3-month moving average Source: BAFA, BP calculations $/Mmbtu Russian gas was competitive in Germany in 2013 11.4 6.7 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Russian contract* Average 13.3 Average 9.4 Average 11.0 Average 10.5
- 18. © BP 2014 Regional supply patterns differ Bcf/d ChinaBcf/d North America Bcf/d Europe Sources of gas supply by region -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1995 2015 2035 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1995 2015 2035 12.6 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1995 2015 2035 Net pipeline import Net LNG import Shale gas Other unconventional Conventional Energy Outlook 2035
- 19. © BP 2014 China’s gas imports from Central Asia 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: China Customs Committee Mcm
- 20. © BP 2014 Gazprom production by field 0 150 300 450 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Yamburgskoye Urengoyskoye Zapoliarnoye Bovanenkovskoye Other Europe and West Siberia, incl Yamal East Siberia 45 Source: MoED Rus Bcm
- 21. © BP 2014 China gas import price 9.83 9.39 8.64 8.00 10.50 13.00 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Total Imports Turkmenistan Uzbekistan$/Mmbtu
- 22. © BP 2014 Government view of Russia’s gas production 0 300 600 900 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Other producers Gazprom Group Sakhalin PSA 842 Rus Bcm Source: MoED 72% 64% 668
- 23. © BP 2014
- 24. © BP 2014 Gazprom is steadily losing domestic market to independent producers 85.3 78.2 71.3 69.1 78.4 69.0 60.0 58.2 50 70 90 2005 2010 2013 1H2014 Share in production Share in consumption Gazprom % Source: CDUTEK, BP calculations
- 25. © BP 2014 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Russia FSU RoW Russian gas prices still vary a lot by market $/ MmBtu Source: Gazprom 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Russia FSU RoW
- 26. © BP 2014 Gazprom volumes and revenues 63 56 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (9m) Gas sales in Gazprom's total net revenue*% *The balance comes from selling condensate, oil products, electricity, etc.