The Climate Food and Farming (CLIFF) Research Network is an international research network that helps to expand young researchers' knowledge and experience working on climate change mitigation in smallholder farming. CLIFF provides grants for selected doctoral students to work with CGIAR researchers affiliated with the Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems (SAMPLES) project. This presentation is Agricultural Hotspots in the Tropics: mitigation pathways by Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, a CLIFF student with CCAFS.

1. Agricultural Hotspots in the Tropics:
mitigation pathways
CCE Low Emission Development
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
CLIFF meeting. Bonn, 8th Nov 2017

2. Why is it important?: Major contributors of GHG emissions from the
AFOLU sector AR5-WGIII
Figure 11.2. AFOLU emissions and subcategories for the last four decades.
AFOLU
24% emissions 2010
(10-12 PgCO2eq)
50% agriculture
50% forestry
Sources
Agriculture
FAOSTAT (2013)
FOLU
Houghton et al., (2012)
Drained peat and peat fires
JRC/PBL (2012)
Hooijer et al. (2010)
van der Werf et al. (2006)
FAOSTAT 2013

3. AR5-AFOLU
UNEP’ s GAP REPORT
2016
Why is it important?: Role in mitigation

4. AFOLU net emissions
Net emissions uncertainties
Where are the AFOLU
emissions located?
Net AFOLU emissions

5. 27 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2eCO2 gross emissions
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers
8.7 Tg CO2
0 Tg CO2non-CO2 gross emissions
Gross emissions disaggregated by gases

6. 14 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
9.2 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
23 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Deforestation emissions
Deforestation min Deforestation max
±
0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers

7. 1.5 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
0.3 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Harvesting emissions
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers
Harvesting uncertainty

8. 26 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
8.2 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Fire emissions without deforestation fires
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers
Fire uncertainty

9. 3.2 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
0.2 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Crop soil emissions
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers
Crop soil uncertainty

10. 7 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
5.4 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
14 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Rice soil emissions
Rice maxRice min
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers

11. 0.3 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
Livestock emissions (enteric fermentation + manure management)
1.7 Tg CO2e
0 Tg CO2e
±0 2,700 5,400 8,100
Kilometers
Livestock uncertainty

12. 1.5°C scenarios and land use
§ Land activities suggested as CDR/GHG removals
Ø Afforestation / Reforestation
Ø Changing agricultural practices enhancing soil carbon
Ø Biochar and soil carbon enhancement
Ø Restoration of peat and wetlands
Ø Biomass use for energy production with carbon capture and
storage (BECCS)
Ø Reduced deforestation
Ø Reduced Livestock emissions

13. Natural climate mitigation solutions: constrained
to food security
Griscom et al. (2017) PNAS
Natural climate solutions
30% of mitigation reduction needed
for 2030 to fulfill 2°C target

14. 1.5°C scenarios and land use
§ Land use transitions that focus on maximizing mitigation
by 2050 would result in:
ØDecrease in croplands for food and feed production, and
grasslands due to mitigation that demands land (biomass for
BECCS and afforestation)
ØExpansion of energy crops
ØExpansion of forest: reverse from current negative trends to
reach 6 Mha.yr-1 for 2010-2050. This means 6*40 =240Mha
by 2050. The Bonn Challenge (150 Mha in 2020) and NYDF
(350 Mha in 2030) claim to restore land but not necessarily
through a/reforestation.
ØWhen BECCS and afforestation are considered together, land
demand in 2100 is of the order of 800-1800 Mha, mainly
converted from pasture land.

15. Team work
• Identify the 5 tropical countries with largest agricultural mitigation potentials
• Choose 3 countries, one in each continent
• Identify the most relevant agricultural emission sources
• Identify the most relevant mitigation pathways by considering:
• The boundaries of the agricultural system (forests, wetlands,
grasslands, croplands)
• Mitigation goals alone (effects on cropland area)
• Mitigation goals with food security concerns and safeguard concerns
(effects on cropland areas and grassland areas)
• Mitigation goals considering supply/demand
• Mitigation goals considering land sparing (intensification) or land
sharing (mixed systems and extensive approaches)
• Consider PARIS agreement requirements: stock-taking process and
transparency
• Use Griscom et al. (2017) supplementary data to obtain some ideas.