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The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
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Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
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- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
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Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
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Have the message received by managers and peers along with a test email for review
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In a second workflow supporting the same use case, you’ll see:
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Charlie Greenberg, Host
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
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Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
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1. Is Your Estimate Real?
Robert Webster
NASA PM Challenge at Daytona, Fla.
February 15, 2008
01-XX
2. Is Your Estimate Real?
• Answer
– The amount of trust you have in the estimate at
which you are looking is proportional to the detail
of the logic and the use of valid math techniques
2
3. Is your Estimate Real?
• The estimating world is made up of people doing price
and cost analysis:
– Price Analysis is the comparison of a cost based on:
• Catalog prices
• Previous price history
• Parametric methodologies
– Cost Analysis is the creation of costs based on:
• Bottoms up techniques
• Analog techniques with or without Complexity Factors
• Cost Estimating Relationships (CER)
• Parametrics
– Most analyses use data (including scope) to reach
conclusions
3
4. Is Your Estimate Real? Who Does Them?
Defense Acquisition Process
4
5. Is Your Estimate Real?
Who Is Your Customer?
• Government
– Hundreds of levels and procuring agencies
and their auditors
• Industry
– User, prime, subcontractor
• Company
– President/VP
– Fiscal group
• Group
• Performance individual
5
6. Is Your Estimate Real?
Price and Cost Analysis Are Two Distinct Techniques
• Price Analysis
– A method that relies historical program or object
prices to predict the future
• Cost Analysis
– A method that relies on historical process costs or
done as a bottoms up
6
7. Is Your Estimate Real?
Simple Example of Price Analysis
• Store 1 Pair of Roller Skates $18
• Store 2 Pair of Roller Skates $11
• Store 3 Pair of Roller Skates $17
• Catalog 1 Pair of Roller Skates $12
• Store 4 Pair of Roller Skates $25
• Store 5 Pair of Roller Skates $39
• Compare Prices—If All Same
Value Lowest Price Is Best Value
7
8. Is Your Estimate Real?
Example of Cost Analysis
Parts List
8 Wheels - $1 ea = $8
4 Axles - $0.25 ea = $1
2 Shoe Base - $1ea = $2
2 Straps With Buckle - $1.50
Labor to Assemble - 1/2 hour x 10 $/hr = $5
Total per Pair Cost = $17.50
8
9. Is Your Estimate Real?
What Is the Phase of the Cost Estimate and Its Data?
• No contracts are awarded based on life cycle
cost although it may sometimes be a
discriminator in selecting the product
• Most contracts are awarded based on
development to reach a technical readiness
level, cost for final design, and recurring
production cost
• You must know the phase origins of your data
9
11. Is Your Estimate Real?
Selecting the Right Method for Your Estimate
• Models/Databases
–Price based
• Parametric
• Hardware/ electronics/software based
• Catalog based
–Cost Based
• Analog or “similar to” with or without factors
• Bottoms up
11
12. Is Your Estimate Real?
Bottoms-Up Types
• Published Labor Standards
• Expert Opinion
• Cost Estimating Relationships
(Statistical or Non-Statistical)
• Done Singular or in Groups
12
13. Is Your Estimate Real?
Method Used If You Have Data
• Price estimating
– Price indices for inflation/deflation
•Producer price indices by commodity groups
•Escalation table services
– Cost, volume, profit analysis (fixed/variable costs)
– Product random sample analysis
– Best fit analysis Y=a+bx
– Least square—Best fit also called Regression
13
14. Is Your Estimate Real?
More Price Analysis Techniques
• Factors from economic forecasts
• Cost Estimating Relationships (CER)
– Parametric-based on a performance parameter
– Cost-to-cost or resource to resource
• Improvement curves - Cost=TFU (unitB) where
B=log of the slope (ie .9 for 90%)/log of 2
• Applies to touch labor only—not LOE
• Materials are usually a different curve than touch labor
• Only valid where curve is continuous
14
15. Is Your Estimate Real?
How Is Your Data Organized?
• WBS Cost Actuals
– Functional categories
– Collection
– Retrieval
• Phase-Oriented CERs
• Scope Data
– Difficult to obtain
– Databases—Flat file or
relational (Codds 12 rules)
15
16. Is Your Estimate Real?
• Proposal estimating—process discipline is
essential
– On a big proposal the proper sequence stops
errors and “do overs”
– Proposal process definition allows an assignee to
each task with a deadline
• Difference in techniques between a ROM and
Firm
16
17. Is Your Estimate Real?
The Firm Cost Proposal Process
S tra te g ic T a rg e te d M a rk e t P re lim in a ry C u s to m e r
C u s to m e r N e e d s /W a n ts B o g ie /C o n tra c t T y p e
Id e n tific a tio n S a tis fa c tio n P la n
B ra in s to r m /e v a lu a te P r o g r a m L o g ic in c lu d in g
RFP R is k M itig a tio n A p p ro a c h
T e c h n ic a l a n d P ro c e s s R is k P a ra lle l P a th s
D e v e lo p p r o p o s a l
S tra te g ic C o m p e titiv e P ro p o s a l W O /P r o p o s a l
B id /N o B id In s tru c tio n s a n d P ro p o s a l
A n a ly s is -W in T h e m e s N u m b e r a s s ig n e d
S c h e d u le
S e le c t F u n c tio n a l T e a m E x p a n d L o g ic /P ro g ra m P la n M a n u fa c tu rin g /Q u a lity P la n “ ility ” P la n s
P ro p o s a l R A M
P ro p o s a l K ic k o ff T e s t P la n C a p ita l/O v e rh e a d P la n C lo s e o u t P la n
T e c h n ic a l V o lu m e
S p e c ia l P r o v is io n s -F is c a l,
R F Q C o m p lia n c e M a trix C D R L Id e n tific a tio n E s tim a tin g S tra te g y
Q u a lity , R e p o rtin g
GFM , G SE, EG SE T o o l S tr in g in c S h ip p in g
S T E Id e n tific a tio n H a rd w a re D e m a n d L is t
Id e n tific a tio n C o n ta in e rs
W BS W B S D ic tio n a ry RAM B o g ie s B y W B S a n d /o r y e a r
E B O M ,M B O M ,Q B O M ,T B O M
N e w E n v iro n m e n ta l Im p a c ts P r o g ra m M a s te r S c h e d u le T r a v e l Id e n tific a tio n b y W B S
a n d M a k e /B u y
O u tg o in g S h ip p in g O D C D e fin itio n L a b o r J u s tific a tio n s /B O M P ric e
V e rify C o s t a g re e s w ith
T e c h n ic a l
S ta tis tic a l R is k A n a ly s is P u b lis h , S h ip
17
18. Is Your Estimate Real?
ROMs by Other Names
• Rough Order of Magnitude
• High Fidelity ROM
• Budgetary Estimate
• Planning Number
• Wild Associated Guess (WAG)
• Briefing Number
• Shot in the Dark
• Guestimate
• But Never, Never a Not to Exceed (NTE)
18
19. Is Your Estimate Real?
Example of a Bottoms-Up Cost Estimate
0.324989 0.612 0.44 0.335 7.48 0.018 0.057 0.81 0.135
WBS task cf eng-sh mfg-sh mfg-hh q-sh q-hh y-sh y-hh q sh out test-sh test-hh sum
average cost of 18 units
118 Rocket Engine Stg 1 fram 1 315 594 970 427 325 131 17 55 106 131 3071
Assumes static test of each frame.
19
21. Is Your Estimate Real?
Difference in Techniques Between a ROM and Firm
• Firm—Has labor, material, and 5 to 10
categories of ODC discretely estimated and
priced.
• ROM—A similar previous program was done
for $20M in 2003 $. This effort the same but
is done in 2010. 20 x 1.03^5 = $23.2M
21
22. Is Your Estimate Real?
What Type of Contract?
• Cost +
• Firm Fixed Price
• Fixed Price Incentive
• Cost Plus Incentive Fee
• Cost Plus Award fee
• Time and Material
22
23. Is Your Estimate Real?
WBS Organization
• WBSs can be based on:
– Hardware/software
– Tasks
– Schedule, phase or milestones
– Functional
• WBSs primarily are used for assuring
completeness, cost control, and analysis
• Can be any or all of the above or a Standard (Std)
WBS methodology
• Advantage of a Std WBS is that less effort into
Scope Data is required
23
24. Is Your Estimate Real?
Organization of the Estimate
• The WBS: Is It Std or Variable?
Engine
WBS100
Injector Injector Recurring Integration and Program
CDRLS
Development Production flight Support Management
WBS180
WBS110 WBS120 WBS130 WBS190
Design Fabrication Test
WBS111 WBS112 WBS113
24
27. Is Your Estimate Real?
Secondary Verification—Should Cost
• This is a validation methodology and as
such it is important that it stands by itself
using another technique than the original
estimate-if you can come at it from 3
directions.
• Go with your first cut for the should cost
– No gaming or modifying after you are done
• Make sure the funding profile isn’t the
program driver.
27
28. Is Your Estimate Real?
Std WBS Methodology
• Benefits include better organization of data
into similar scope categories or product
lines so normalization is easier
• Original taxonomy is important so the Std
WBS does not change
28
29. Is Your Estimate Real?
Be careful of other factors
• Make sure the funding profile isn’t the program
driver. If it doesn’t match your funding it can
skew the data.
• Oversight caused by man rating.
• If you are using models make sure you anchor
them with your data.
• Knowing the scope of the previous effort is
important-even with models.
• If you are going to manage this program-know
your team’s maturity.
29
30. Is Your Estimate Real?
Conclusion
• The amount of trust you have in the
estimate you are looking at is
proportional to the detail of the logic
and the use of valid math techniques
30