Resilience: The Challenges Ahead - Craig Applegath, Dialogue
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This document discusses building resilience in cities to help them withstand future shocks and stresses. It defines resilience as a system's ability to absorb disturbances while retaining basic functions. Key drivers of future change include climate change, population growth, energy supply issues, and more. The document outlines six attributes of resilience: flexibility, redundancy, diversity, decoupling, decentralization, and environmental integration. It also provides opportunities to build resilience in areas like public health, infrastructure, and the economy. Five approaches are explored: increasing urban density, local low-carbon energy, local food production, modular infrastructure integration, and infrastructure hardening.
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Resilience: The Challenges Ahead - Craig Applegath, Dialogue
- 1. RESILIENCE Part 1 THE CHALLENGES AHEAD by Craig Applegath FRAIC JULY 10, 2012
- 5. RESILIENT CITY 2010 >> 2030 >> 2050 >> CARBON REGENERATIVE SYMBIOTIC CITY CITY CITY A POSSIBLE FUTURE FOR OUR CITIES?
- 6. PART 1 - AGENDA 1. WHAT IS “RESILIENCE”? 2. ATTRIBUTES OF RESILIENCE 3. SIX KEY DRIVERS OF… 4. SHOCKS AND STRESSES
- 8. re-sil-ience [ri-zil-yuhns, zil-ee-uhns] 1. the power or ability to return to original form, position, etc., after being bent, compressed, or stretched; elasticity. 2. ability to recover readily from illness, depression, adversity, or the like, buoyancy. http://www.dictionary.com
- 9. “Resilience is the capacity of a community’s economic, social, political and physical infrastructure systems to absorb shocks and stresses and still retain their basic function and structure.” http://www.ResilientCity.org
- 10. “Resilience is an emergent property of a system – it’s not the result of any one of the system’s parts but of the synergy between all of its parts.” Thomas Homer Dixon, The Upside of Down
- 12. 1. ECONOMIC 2. ENVIRONMENTAL 3. ENERGY SUPPLY / PRICE SHOCKS 4. INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURES 5. POPULATION CHANGE & MIGRATIONS 6. FOOD SHORTAGES / PRICE SHOCKS 7. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS 8. DISEASE / PANDEMICS 9. REGIONAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS 10. TERRORISM (BIO / CYBER / DIRTY NUKES)
- 14. CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION ENERGY SUPPLY GROWTH/MIGRATION ENVIRONMENTAL REGIONAL RESOURCE SOCIO-POLITICAL DEGREDATION CONFLICTS
- 15. CLIMATE CHANGE
- 18. WORLD CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY
- 19. CLIMATE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE Source: Wikipedia Commons EQUATOR HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
- 21. Source: Wikipedia Commons POPULATION GROWTH RATE Population
- 22. 2 BILLION PEOPLE IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS!
- 23. POPULATION IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE * Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase trading of key food products over the next 5 years
- 24. FISH STOCK COLLAPSES COLLAPSE OF THE ATLANTIC COD FISHERY
- 25. POPULATION MIGRATION NET MIGRATION RATES FOR 2008
- 26. ADDITIONAL 3.1 BILLION PEOPLE IN CITIES BY 2050
- 27. x x x x x
- 29. So how do we start to build capacity for greater resilience to these future shocks and stresses in our communities and cities?
- 31. 1. Flexibility 2. Redundancy 3. Diversity 4. Decoupling (self-sufficiency) 5. Decentralization 6. Environmental Integration
- 32. FLEXIBILITY
- 33. REDUNDANCY
- 34. decentralization DIVERSITY
- 35. DECOUPLING
- 36. DECENTRALIZATION
- 37. ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, August 2005
- 38. RESILIENCE – Part 1 – DISCUSSION
- 40. RESILIENCE Part 2 OPPORTUNITES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE by Craig Applegath FRAIC JULY 10, 2012
- 41. SO HOW DO WE INCREASE THE RESILIENCE CAPACITY OF OUR COMMUNITIES AND CITIES?
- 42. OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE 1. PUBLIC HEALTH 2. EDUCATION & TRAINING 3. GOVERNANCE 4. ECONOMY 5. JUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITY 6. BUILDING FABRIC & TRANSPORTATION 7. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE 8. FOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE 9. C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTRE 10. WATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
- 47. 50% Of the World’s Population Live in Cities NOW
- 48. 70%-80% Of the World’s Population Will Live in Cities by 2050
- 51. KLEIBER’S LAW
- 57. T.O.D. MintoTowers at Eglinton Subway, Toronto
- 61. ENERGY DEMAND
- 66. PV PARITY IS 5 YEARS AWAY!
- 67. Total System Levelized Cost [2009 US$/MWh] 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 “Italy and the US will achieve grid parity ... in two and five years respectively.” Andrew Beebe, Energy Innovations
- 68. LIQUID METAL BATTERIES! $250 per Kilowatt-hour fully installed [10x less expensive than Lithium-ion!]
- 69. THORIUM NUCLEAR Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, in Zhejiang
- 70. “…a tonne of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tonnes of uranium, or 3,500,000 tonnes of coal.” Carlo Rubbia, CERN Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, in Zhejiang
- 71. LOCAL FOOD PRODUCTION
- 73. POPULATION IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE * Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase trading of key food products over the next 5 years
- 74. CLIMATE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE Source: Wikipedia Commons EQUATOR HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
- 77. LAND REQUIRED = 2 ACRES PER PERSON TORONTO = 6 MILLION ACRES
- 79. FOOD PRODUCTION PROPOSAL CREDIT: GORDON GRAFF
- 82. MODULARIZATION & C.I.T. INTEGRATION KEY INFRA STRUCTURE SYSTEMS
- 84. PLAN B SYSTEMS August 14th 2003 INFRASTRUCTURE SHOCKS TO AGING Blackout 2003 - Toronto Skyline / Photo Credit: Courtesy of Flickr
- 87. (Logarithmic Vertical Scale) MOORES LAW
- 88. Facebook is founded in February 2004 Facebook now has 800 million subscribers! With Permission of Paul Butler
- 89. INSTRUMENTS CLOTHING GLASSES TOOLS WATCH AUTOMOBILE MUSIC HOUSES GREEN SPACE DATING CAMERAS THE SHOES ANIMALS INTERNET SPORTS CHAIR OF THINGS MOBILE DEVICE TV FOOD PEOPLE BOOKS ART BICYCLE VACCUM
- 90. RFID! [Radio Frequency Identification Devices]
- 92. WITH PERMISSION OF CHE BIGGS, 20011
- 93. MODULAR GENERATION / FOOD / WASTE PROCESSING CREDIT: DIALOG
- 94. IINFRASTRUCTURE & BUILDING FABRIC “HARDENING”
- 96. SO WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THIS…
- 97. OR THIS…
- 98. HITS THIS…
- 99. OR THIS…
- 100. YOU GET THIS… New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina
- 101. AND THIS…
- 102. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS SOURCE: WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE (MUNICH RE)
- 105. LESSONS FROM THE PAST Resilience
- 106. INTEGRATED DURABILITY SOURCE: DIALOG Resilience
- 107. INTEGRATED DURABILITY SOURCE: TED KESIK SERVICE QUALITY x SERVICE LIFE = DURABILITY
- 113. SUMMARY
- 114. OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE 1. PUBLIC HEALTH 2. EDUCATION & TRAINING 3. GOVERNANCE 4. ECONOMY 5. JUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITY 6. BUILDING FABRIC & TRANSPORTATION 7. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE 8. FOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE 9. C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTRE 10. WATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
- 115. 5 APPROACHES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE 1. INCREASE URBAN SIZE AND DENSITY 2. LOW CARBON ENERGY PRODUCTION 3. LOCAL URBAN FOOD PRODUCTION 4. MODULARIZATION AND INTEGRATION OF C.I.T INFRASTRUCTURE 5. INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDING FABRIC HARDENING
- 116. “Reality is one of the possibilities I cannot afford to ignore.” Leonard Cohen
Editor's Notes
- Thank you very much for the thorough introduction [name of introducer]. >>> What a symbolically appropriate place to hold this conference! New Orleans is for many the symbol of what can happen when there is not sufficient resilience capacity; but also now a laboratory for experimenting with how to build future resilience – as this conference attests.Typically the week before I give a presentation on this topic, I scan the papers and web for some current examples of the tangible impacts of shocks and stresses that test a communities resilience capacity – and there is always something. This past couple of weeks, as you know, has been filled with news of storms and heat waves that have huge impacts on communities across the USA.
- Typically most sustainabilty discussions are about what we as architects, interior designers, and urban designers can do to reduce our carbon foot print, and create more sustainable cities and buildings. Indeed! All of our focus for the past 10 years has been on our impact on the world … on the kinds of effects our profligate use of energy and its massive production of carbon will have on the environment ….as if the environment was “out there” and somehow separate from us.
- However, we are now at a point where not only do we have to look for ways to diminish and repair our harm to the planet, but at the same time start thinking about how we will deal with the effects of the harm we have already created – the shocks and stresses that climate change is beginning to manifest!
- However, we are now at a point where not only do we have to look for ways to diminish and repair our harm to the planet, but at the same time start thinking about how we will deal with the effects of the harm we have already created – the shocks and stresses that climate change is beginning to manifest!
- As a principal at DIALOG, I have been conducing Future Proofing Cities Workshops over the past year to explore how cities and their infrastructure could be planned, designed and engineered to better recognize not only the need to reduce their environmental footprint, but to also take into account the significant shocks and stresses they will have to content with over the next 30 years. I think it is very clear that over the next 30 years, we as a species are going to have to find ways to transform our cities through “regeneration” from being “carbon intensive cities” into cities that are fully integrated into their surrounding ecosystems. Integrated in a way where they are no longer damaging parasites, but instead positively contributing symbiants.At the moment we as planners, engineers and architects are beginning to shift our focus from “sustainability” to “regeneration” with the final goal being an ecologically integrated city. However, in addition to figuring out how to drive our cities along this path of transformation, we are also going to have to start to think about how to build greater capacity for resilience into our cities and building fabric.
- So for my presentation today, I would like to tell you about where our explorations have been leading us over the past couple of years, and hopefully help contribute to the growing discussion about how to build resilience capacity in our cities. >>> In doing so I would like to outline the key shocks and stresses we need to be thinking about >>> Touch on the 2 key drivers of these shocks and stresses >>> Then put forward a working definition of Resilience >>> and then spend most of the presentation talking about the 5 resilience capacity building approaches we have been EXPLORING.
- >>> So How do we build greater Resilience into our communities and cities in the face of these two great forces?>>>I think that although we cannot know exactly when or where the specific impacts of Climate Change, Population Growth and Migrations will occur, we can at least begin to explore how to build greater resilience into our communities and cities to better cope with the future shocks and stresses that might be reasonably expected to occur.
- “Resilience is the ability to absorb disturbances, to be changed and then to re-organize and still have the same identity (retain the same basic structure and ways of functioning). It includes the ability to learn from the disturbance. A resilient system is forgiving of external shocks.” Source: The Resilience Alliance, http://www.resalliance.org/
- So how should we define Resilience in this context? I have been thinking about this for a few years now, and I would suggest that, in the context of cities: “Resilience is best defined asthe capacity of a city’s economic, social, political and physical infrastructure systems to absorb shocks and stresses and still retain their basic function and structure.”
- “Resilience is an emergent property of a system – it’s not the result of any one of the system’s parts but of the synergy between all of its parts.”
- So when we talk about Resilience, what kinds of shocks and stresses do we need to build resilience for? [Ask audience]
- >> If you look back over the past century, these are the kinds of shocks and stresses that cities around the globe have experienced --- >> So we can certainly imagine that cities in the future will be faced by one or more of these stresses. >>> However, I think the first 7 on this list are the ones that we as architects and urban designers potentially have some opportunity to address through the type of work we do.
- But in this century, we should expect that two new driving forces will be at work to increase the likelihood of our cities being potentially subject to these shocks and stresses.
- >> If you look back over the past century, these are the kinds of shocks and stresses that cities around the globe have experienced --- >> So we can certainly imagine that cities in the future will be faced by one or more of these stresses. >>> However, I think the first 7 on this list are the ones that we as architects and urban designers potentially have some opportunity to address through the type of work we do.
- Obviously, it should come as no surprise to you that the first is clearly going to be Climate Change>>> Given I am speaking to a seasoned professionals who have been thinking about climate change for the past 10 years or more, I do not need to spend much time discussing its implications.
- But just as a reminder of where we now stand, we continue to add CO2 to our atmosphere at a rate of 2ppm per year, and are now at around 390ppm (as you recall, at the beginning of he industrial revolution we were at 250ppm CO2[Image:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1c/Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png] ----- Meeting Notes (12-05-29 10:12) -----
- And as you can see from this graph that maps the relationship between CO2 leaves and mean annual earth temp the earth’s temp has been steadily climbing as the CO2 concentrations have been rising. As you know, this increase in average atmospheric temperature and also ocean temperatures will be the prime movers of all the other effects we are starting to experience as climate change.>>> I will touch on some of the implications of this for resilience a little later in the presentation.From Wikipedia Creative CommonsDescription English: "Global annual average temperature (as measured over both land and oceans). Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the average temperature for the period 1901-2000. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in parts per million (ppm). While there is a clear long-term global warming trend, each individual year does not show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. [...] These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Niños, La Niñas, and the eruption of large volcanoes." Source: page 17 of the report, using print version page numbering.Date 1 January 2009Source Taken from page 17 (print version page numbering) of the chapter "Global Climate Change" in the report: "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States." Freely accessible on the web from the United States Global Change Research Program. Also available in print from Cambridge University Press, 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA:. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0Author The source for the diagram given in the report is NOAA/NCDC. The editors of the report were Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson.Permission(Reusing this file) The text of the report is in the public domain - see the opening pages of the PDF version of the full report. The diagram itself was produced by NOAA/NCDC: "As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material produced by U.S. government agencies must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the U.S. Government material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection within the United States. The information on government web pages is in the public domain and not subject to copyright protection within the United States unless specifically annotated otherwise (copyright may be held elsewhere). Foreign copyrights may apply." http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ngdcinfo/privacy.html
- author: "Source: Energy Information Administration." of the US Department of Energy (DOE); in public domain as per:http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/aboutEIA/copy_right.htmlThis image is a work of a United States Department of Energy (or predecessor organization) employee, taken or made during the course of an employee's official duties. As a work of the U.S. federal government, the image is in the public domain.
- And of course there is Climate Change! As climate change progresses there is a high probability that there will be an expansion of the two bands of desert that gird the earth. Above the existing Hadley Cells at about 25 degrees (at the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn) is a band of deserts. As the earth heats up these will expend north and south into what is not our most valueble farm land – the bread-baskets of the world in the United States, the Middle East, and in Australia.This stress on food supply will put significant pressure on all cities that cannot supply their own food from their local region.
- Obviously, it should come as no surprise to you that the first is clearly going to be Climate Change>>> Given I am speaking to a seasoned professionals who have been thinking about climate change for the past 10 years or more, I do not need to spend much time discussing its implications.
- Overall, the good news is that the population growth rate is trending down … from 2.2% in 1963 to about half that in 2008.>>>> Next slideIn 1798 Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would outrun food supply by the mid 19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The Population Bomb, predicting famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research already under way, such as the green revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out the green revolution relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure would be very widespread. Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread widely
- >>> The world’s overall total population is still growing and as this graph shows will continue to do so until 2050.>>>If the actual population growth continues as projected, the planet will have to support somewhere in the order of 9 billion people in as soon as 25 years![Past and projected population growth on different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and its scale is millions of people.]Next>>>>
- But oil and energy prices aside,… our increasing global population will also put pressures on the demand and price of food.Add to that the fact that our global population is increasing by 2 billion over the next 25 to 30 years, which will put huge pressures on food costs. The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase trading of key food products over the next 5 years As population numbers increase, there will be a corresponding increase in the demand for food. Moreover, as Climate change starts to cause reduction in the worldwide production of food, both the increased demand and the reduced supply will cause increase in food prices and possibly significant shortages in food supplies.
- The northwest Atlantic fishery abruptly collapsed in 1992, following overfishing since the late 1950s, and an earlier partial collapse in the 1970s.[1]In 1992 the Canadian government declared a moratorium on the Northern Cod fishery that, for the past 500 years, had largely shaped the lives and communities of Canada’s eastern coast. The interplay between fishing societies and the resources on which they depend is palpable to even the most unacquainted observer: fisheries transform the ecosystem, which in turn pushes the fishery and society to adapt.[2] In the summer of 1992, when the Northern Cod biomass fell to one percent of its earlier level[3], it became apparent to Canada’s federal government that this relationship had been pushed to the breaking point and a moratorium was declared, ending the region’s half-millennium run with the Northern Cod.
- >>> And along with population growth, we will also see continued and possibly accelerated migration. There will be two key reasons for this. The first is what Doug Saunders, the highly respected Canadian reporter and essayist, writes in his recent book ARRIVAL CITY, that we are at the beginning of what he terms the “Third Great Migration” from rural to urban habitation. >>>> Indeed, By 2050 it is estimated that our world’s cities will have to absorb an additional 3.1 Billion people from migration! >>> The second cause of potentially huge migrations will be the cumulative impacts of climate change that cause the collapse of key ecosystems that will make large areas of the planet uninhabitable.[pg 22. Arrival City]. How will you as planners and architects respond to this challenge of accommodating all these new arrivals?]In addition to this, there will most probably be significant migration caused by climate change, as various regions of the world that were once habitable become inhabitable.
- If you look at the research and literature on Resilience, these 6 attributes have the most relevance for urban systems.Flexibility: Resilience to shocks and stresses is all about being nimble, being able to react in effective and innovative ways.Sustainable Energy Flows– contribute to resilience capacity because it reduces the potential impacts of stresses and shocks associated with the future availability and costs of energy. Local Self-Sufficiency – The purpose of which is to “de-couple” our cities to some significant degree from the shocks and stresses affecting other cities/regions (this is huge problem in our world today)Redundancy – redundancy in key systems increases the capacity for resilience because it means that if one system goes down, is affecteded… there are other systems that can pick up the slack.Diversity – diversity of systems increases the capacity of resilience because it means that if one type of system is affected, then another may not be.Decentralization – the spider and the starfish analogy – centralized decision making means that a shock or stress to that centre has hugely negative impacts on the system as a wholeEnvironmental Integration – City systems must be integrated into their natural environmental systems in ways that increase their resilience to environmentally related shocks and stresses – eg weather events.
- If you look at the research and literature on Resilience, these 6 attributes have the most relevance for urban systems.Flexibility: Resilience to shocks and stresses is all about being nimble, being able to react in effective and innovative ways.Local Self-Sufficiency – The purpose of which is to “de-couple” our cities to some significant degree from the shocks and stresses affecting other cities/regions (this is huge problem in our world today). Key areas of self sufficiency include food and manufacturingRedundancy – redundancy in key systems increases the capacity for resilience because it means that if one system goes down, is affecteded… there are other systems that can pick up the slack.Diversity – diversity of systems increases the capacity of resilience because it means that if one type of system is affected, then another may not be.Decentralization – the spider and the starfish analogy – centralized decision making means that a shock or stress to that centre has hugely negative impacts on the system as a wholeEnvironmental Integration – City systems must be integrated into their natural environmental systems in ways that increase their resilience to environmentally related shocks and stresses – eg weather events.
- Building flexibility into both our soft and hard infrastructure systems will be very important to increasing the ability of communities and cities to cope with future shocks and stresses. Flexibility provides a system with ability to respond to a shock or stress by some combination of accommodation and shifting to a new normal without too much disturbance of the underlying structure and functioning of the system. A example of this might be in food production: if there are farmers capable of growing a number of different types of crops, and if there is one particular crop that is no longer able to be grown because of a new disease, or change in environment, then it may mean they can switch to other crops that would be more resistant to whatever the problem was. However, if you are a maple syrup producer, and climate change kills all your maples (which is what is now happening) then you really shit out of luck and very unresilient. Flexibility in a community's ability to use different types of energy sourses would also provide a commuity with greater resiliece. (this is stepping over into redundancy though)
- In the late 20th Century, engineers and managers did all they could to reduce the “redundancy” of systems. Redundancy was reduced to improve efficiency and squeeze every joule or penny out of a system. However, highly efficient systems are also often highly fragile and brittle systems. The just-in-time product management systems of big retailers is great for profitability – until the supply chain is cut off. For communities and cites, redundancy of key infrastructure systems such as water and electrical power are important for building resilience capacity. To my mind this is one of the most important attributes of a resilient system. Redundancy provides a system with additional "redundant" capacity that can be drawn upon in the case of shocks or stresses. This is particularly important for key physical infrastructure such as power, water and communications. A good example would be a community with only one road in an out of it. If this road is washed out in a flood then the community is cut off. More typical would be water or electrical power system. Often communities only have only one or two sources of power and water supply. If these are damaged or fail then the shock to the community is significant. But providing redundancy, if one part of a system goes down, another part can pick it up. A good example of this would be distributed comminity power systems. Each system is designed to supply a community, but provide for enough extra capacity that if another community's system fails, it can borrow power from one of the other power supplies on the network. By the way, this is one of the key ideas behind the smart grid.
- Diversity is a resilience strategy based on an understanding of the resilience of complex diverse social and biological ecosystems. Imagine two ecosystems: The first a mixed hardwood and coniferous forest with a rich understorey of various plant species; the second a mono-culture corn field. If a virus, or fungus, or insect attacks the corn field the ecosystem collapses. If one of the same attacks the forest, although it may affect one or two species, the rest will remain to keep the ecosystem going. In a community diversity would be diversity of economic activity, food sources, power sources, cultural activity. The greater the diversity of a community, the greater its resilience to future shocks and stresses.
- Decoupling (local self-sufficiency): Imagine a highway with cars following each other too closely. If one of those cars puts on the brakes, it results in a pile up because all the cars are coupled to the fate of the front car. Communities increase their resilience by increasing their self-sufficiency in various aspects of their economy. Loal food, and local manufacturing contribute to reduce the the knock-on impacts of shocks and stresses to other communities.
- Decentralization: This resilient attribute relates to the increase in resilience capacity of a system that can decentralize its key decision and control functions as well as its key infrastructure systems. Decentralization of systems means that if any part of the control function is compromised on destroyed, other parts of the whole will not be seriously affected. The best metaphor for this attribute is the comparison of the spider and starfish. If you cut off one of the starfish arms, or cut it in half, the arm or the other half will regrow. The starfish has no central controlling brain, but rather a network of nerves throughout its body. Compare that to the spider. If you cut off the head of the spider, its isolated controlcentre, the body of the spider is no longer functional and the spider dies.
- Environmental Integration: This one is best be exemplified by New Orleans. One of New Orleans biggest problems it that, over its history, it made decision after decision to reduce its environmental integration thus contributing to the impacts that Hurricane Katrina on the City. As example, much of the swamp land that surrounded the city had been cleared for housing or farming. Had it been in place during the storm, the huge storm surge up from the Gulf of Mexico would have been moderated and possibly reduced to an extent that the levies would not have been breached. Another good example of environmental integration is how architects used to design houses in southern climates to provide natural ventilation and shade.They were as a result very effectively integrated into their environment. Today's houses are standardized suburban houses that are cooled with air conditioning, so if there is a big heat wave, and the power goes out, these houses are simply not designed for their environment. So design is directly affecting energy consumption and increasing the communities dependence on easily available and cheap energy.
- >>> So How do we build greater Resilience into our communities and cities in the face of these two great forces?>>>I think that although we cannot know exactly when or where the specific impacts of Climate Change, Population Growth and Migrations will occur, we can at least begin to explore how to build greater resilience into our communities and cities to better cope with the future shocks and stresses that might be reasonably expected to occur.
- >>> So what are the opportunities for increasing the resilience of our cities to the potential shocks and stresses that will be produced by Climate Change and Population growth and Migration?>>> I think this list of opportunities (hard and soft infrastructure) gives a good sense of the structures and functions of a city that one would want to consider as we look to building resilience capacity. >>> However [click red square to appear] the last 5 are the ones that we as planners have the greatest possibility of influencing.OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE PUBLIC HEALTH EDUCATIONGOOD GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC HEALTHJUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITYHOUSING AND TRANSPORTATION C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTREENERGY INFRASTRUCTUREFOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTUREWATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
- So how might we as architects and urban designers actually plan and design for greater resilience into our cities?I have been EXPLORING this question for a few years now, and I think there are a number of approaches we could profitably explore. Today I would like to share 5 of the approaches that I think have real merit in helping us increase the resilience of our cities and communities – which I will share with you.
- Growth and Density. Often presenters save the “best” for last, but I am going to put it first where it belongs. I am going to suggest to you that if you take away nothing else from tonight’s presentation, that at least you remember how important growth and density are to adding resilience capacity to a city.
- Why is this?
- Many cities around the world are going to need to handle an increasing number of migrants, so planning for this will be very important to reducing the future shock of it.
- Currently about 50% of the world’s population live in cities. And this number is growing every year as rural inhabitants migrate from the countryside for for the better life opportunities that cities provide. Therefore the demand for various resources from a growing urban population will only be multiplied by the increasing urbanization of populations around the world – including Canada.
- 70%Of the World’s PopulationWill Live in Citiesby 2050So however you slice it, we as architects and planners are going to have to figure out how successfully accommodate the world’s increasing population in cities. Now the interesting thing about this is that many people who consider themselves green think that urbanization is a bad thing, and that this trend is bad news. Our explorations and research indicate just the opposite.
- In fact this could actually be a good news story and there are two very good things about this situation. there are 2 really good things about this situation: >>>>>
- First: There is a really interesting relationship between the size of a city and its per capita use of energy. >>>>
- In the 1930s, a Swiss-American biologist named Max Kleiberdiscovered the law of animal metabolism: as life gets bigger its metabolism tends to decrease exponentially.
- Intrigued by this finding, theoretical physicist Geoffrey West applied the formula to cities. It turns out cities are just big organisms, with theconsumption of energy infrastructure such as transportation, road surfaces, electrical cable, water piping and sewers all scaling according to Kleiber’s law. Given a city’s population, West can estimate the dimensions of its sewer system, the income of its citizens, the crime rate, or even the number of patents per capita with 85% accuracy.What does this mean to you as planners and architects? It means that bigger cities are both more cost effective and greener!
- 2nd: It turns out that Larger Cities are more innovative and creative than smaller cities – and have an inherent ability to innovate and solve problems
- West also discovered something else: West discovered that INNOVATION and CREATIVITY also followed the exponential power rule, only positive not negative. What he found was that as a city grows in population it becomes exponentially more innovative and creative. The fact that cities are the greenest, most cost effective, and most innovative strategy for human habitation is very important given that we will be adding 2 billion people to our planet over the next 25 years, and
- So how should we grow and densify our cities.
- There is no one right answer to this question, and in fact this topic alone would make a very interesting lecture. But in a nutshell, we should be looking to maximize density as mixed use density, and in ways that make our cities as livable and vital as possible. I would argue that the two best examples in North America are Vancouver and New York City.
- One of the key strategies that you will end up employing to densify cities will be Transportation Oriented Design (TODs) or what’s commonly known as Smart GrowthTransit-oriented developmentFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaA transit-oriented development (TOD) is a mixed-use residential or commercial area designed to maximize access to public transport, and often incorporates features to encourage transit ridership. A TOD neighborhood typically has a center with a transit station or stop (train station, metro station, tram stop, or bus stop), surrounded by relatively high-density development with progressively lower-density development spreading outwards from the center. TODs generally are located within a radius of one-quarter to one-half mile (400 to 800 m) from a transit stop, as this is considered to be an appropriate scale for pedestrians.Many of the new towns created after World War II in Japan, Sweden, and France have many of the characteristics of TOD communities. In a sense, nearly all communities built on reclaimed land in the Netherlands or as exurban developments in Denmark have had the local equivalent of TOD principles integrated in their planning, including the promotion of bicycles for local use.Transit-oriented development is sometimes distinguished by some planning officials from "transit-proximate development" (see, e.g. comments made during a Congressional hearing [2]) because it contains specific features that are designed to encourage public transport use and differentiate the development from urban sprawl. Examples of these features include mixed-use development that will use transit at all times of day, excellent pedestrian facilities such as high quality pedestrian crossings, narrow streets, and tapering of buildings as they become more distant from the public transport node. Another key feature of transit-oriented development that differentiates it from "transit-proximate development" is reduced amounts of parking for personal vehicles.TorontoToronto has a longstanding policy of encouraging new construction along the route of its primary Yonge Street subway line. Most notable are the development of the Yonge and Eglinton area in the 1960s and 1970s; and the present development of the 2 km of the Yonge Street corridor north of Sheppard Avenue, which began in the late 1980s. In the period since 1997 alone the latter stretch has seen the appearance of a major new shopping centre and the building and occupation of over twenty thousand new units of condominium housing. Since the opening of the Sheppard subway line in 2002, there is a condominium construction boom along the route on Sheppard Avenue East between Yonge Street and Don Mills Road.
- One of the most interesting questions you will face as you plan for density will be how low a density is sustainable or resilient. I think this question is debatable, but as a rule of thumb I think we should be aiming for a minimum of 50 to 60 units per Hectare. This being the number to adequately support ridership of LRT’s and key urban infrastructure development. However, I think more research needs to be done on this question.[image of 1930’s neighbourhood – arial view]However, I think one of the most interesting question being debated around density at the moment is what is the lowest level for a resilient density? I think the answer will of course be to a great extent dependent on the city in question, but a rule of thumb would be that you need a density sufficient to support light rail transit. In Toronto, that is somewhere in the order of about 50 units per hectare. There is much debate around how little density is appropriate but, as a rule of thumb, a minimum of 50 dwellings per hectare is necessary to support public transit. This is acceptable at the outskirts of a city.
- Actually --- the really good news about this is that it is going to happen whether we want it or not!The next important approach for us to explore, and one that should be an integral part of creating higher density, is providing for reliable local (and I would argue) low-carbon Energy.
- We all know this is a good idea for reducing carbon and being more sustainable, but why is it good for increasing resilience capacity of a city?
- And the problem is: all indicators point to energy demand and prices going up in the future.This graph shows the projections for the demand of key energy types over the next 15 years, indicating that we will probably see increases in prices as well. [Note:This image is a work of a United States Department of Energy (or predecessor organization) employee, taken or made during the course of an employee's official duties. As a work of the U.S. federal government, the image is in the public domainWorld Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International StatisticsDatabase and International Energy Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0219 (97) (Washington, DC, April 1999). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (2000).]
- our energy infrastructure across North America is aging and at capacity. I will not take much to bring the grid down and produce cascading failures like we saw in August of 2003We therefor need to start investing in our local electrical power grid infrastructure to provide it with the kind of resilience it needs to be immune to external disruptionsOur existing energy infrastructure is both maxed out in capacity, and in many cities at the end of its service life. It’s capacity for future resilience is very limited.
- And, finally, as climate change starts to really bite, there is a good probability that we will start to see some combination of carbon taxation and carbon trading, so reducing our cities’ reliance on carbon based fuels will reduce the economic impact of these restrictions
- So how do we increase a cities energy performance to reduce the future impacts of rising energy costs and increasing demands?
- When most people
- The Exponential Gains in Solar Power per Dollar by RamezNaam on science, politics, and economics. Now and in the future.Posted on March 17, 2011 My post on the Moore’s Law-like exponential gains in solar power per dollar went up at Scientific American yesterday. Reprinting here with permission. The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on average, reaches Earth’s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a day. The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours – less than five days – it provides 36 zettajoules of energy – as much energy as is contained in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet. If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth – one part in one thousand – we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate of energy consumption increase – about 1 percent per year – we will not be using that much energy for another 180 years. It’s small wonder, then, that scientists and entrepreneurs alike are investing in solar energy technologies to capture some of the abundant power around us. Yet solar power is still a miniscule fraction of all power generation capacity on the planet. There is at most 30 gigawatts of solar generating capacity deployed today, or about 0.2 percent of all energy production. Up until now, while solar energy has been abundant, the systems to capture it have been expensive and inefficient. That is changing. Over the last 30 years, researchers have watched as the price of capturing solar energy has dropped exponentially. There’s now frequent talk of a “Moore’s law” in solar energy. In computing, Moore’s law dictates that the number of components that can be placed on a chip doubles every 18 months. More practically speaking, the amount of computing power you can buy for a dollar has roughly doubled every 18 months, for decades. That’s the reason that the phone in your pocket has thousands of times as much memory and ten times as much processing power as a famed Cray 1 supercomputer, while weighing ounces compared to the Cray’s 10,000 lb bulk, fitting in your pocket rather than a large room, and costing tens or hundreds of dollars rather than tens of millions. If similar dynamics worked in solar power technology, then we would eventually have the solar equivalent of an iPhone – incredibly cheap, mass distributed energy technology that was many times more effective than the giant and centralized technologies it was born from. So is there such a phenomenon? The National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy has watched solar photovoltaic price trends since 1980. They’ve seen the price per Watt of solar modules (not counting installation) drop from $22 dollars in 1980 down to under $3 today.
- New battery Liquid Metal Battery technology will be coming on-stream in the next few years that may solve the now big problem of how to store intermittent renewable energy sourcesFrom MIT Sadoway Lab – Temp in the battery is hot enough to keep two different metals liquid. One is high density such as antimony, and it sinks to the bottom. The other is lower density, like Magnesium, and it rises to the top. Between them, molten salt electrolyte helps the exchange of electrical charge. The result is a battery with currents 10 times higher than present day high-end batteries and cheap – prices at $250 a kilowatt-hour fully installed – less than one tenth the cost of current lithium-ion batteries. And this technology scales.
- And probably Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, located in Zhejiang: Two CANDU 6 reactors, designed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), owned and operated by the Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company LimitedThorium as a nuclear fuel:Thorium, as well as uranium and plutonium, can be used as fuel in a nuclear reactor. A thorium fuel cycle offers several potential advantages over a uranium fuel cycle including much greater abundance on Earth, superior physical and nuclear properties of the fuel, enhanced proliferation resistance, and reduced nuclear waste production.[14] Nobel laureate Carlo Rubbia at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), has worked on developing the use of thorium as a cheap, clean and safe alternative to uranium in reactors. Rubbia states that a tonne of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tonnes of uranium, or 3,500,000 tonnes of coal.[15][16] One of the early pioneers of the technology was U.S. physicist Alvin Weinberg at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, who helped develop a working nuclear plant using liquid fuel in the 1960s.In 1997 the U.S. Energy Department underwrote research into thorium fuel, and research was also begun in 1996 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to study the use of thorium reactors. Nuclear scientist, Alvin Radkowsky, of Tel Aviv University in Israel, founded a consortium to develop thorium reactors, which included other companies: Raytheon Nuclear Inc., Brookhaven National Laboratory, and the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow.[17] Radkowsky was chief scientist in the U.S. nuclear submarine program directed by Admiral Hyman Rickover and later headed the design team which built the world's first civilian nuclear power plant at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, which was a scaled-up version of the first naval reactor.[17]Some countries, including India, are now investing in research to build thorium-based nuclear reactors. Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, said in 2009 that his country has a "long-term objective goal of becoming energy-independent based on its vast thorium resources."[18][19] In May 2010, researchers from Ben-Gurion University in Israel and Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York, received a grant to develop a thorium-based, self-sustaining light water reactor[20] that will produce and consume about the same amounts of fuel.[20] In the U.S., NASA scientist and thorium expert Kirk Sorensen calls it the "next giant leap" in energy technology, noting that the "potential energy in thorium is staggering," explaining how just 8 tablespoons of thorium could provide the energy used by an American during his or her lifetime.[21][22][edit]Benefits and challengesA 2005 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency discusses potential benefits along with the challenges of thorium reactors.[23] According to Australian science writer Tim Dean, "thorium promises what uranium never delivered: abundant, safe and clean energy – and a way to burn up old radioactive waste."[24] With a thorium nuclear reactor, Dean stresses a number of added benefits: there is no possibility of a meltdown, it generates power inexpensively, it does not produce weapons-grade by-products, and will burn up existing high-level waste as well as nuclear weapon stockpiles.[24] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, of the British Daily Telegraph, suggests that "Obama could kill fossil fuels overnight with a nuclear dash for thorium," and could put "an end to our dependence on fossil fuels within three to five years."[15] He also points out that "China is leading the way" with its own "dash for thorium," which it announced in March 2011.[25] India has also made thorium based nuclear reactors a priority with its focus on developing fast breeder technology. [26][27]
- And probably Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, located in Zhejiang: Two CANDU 6 reactors, designed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), owned and operated by the Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company LimitedThorium as a nuclear fuel:Thorium, as well as uranium and plutonium, can be used as fuel in a nuclear reactor. A thorium fuel cycle offers several potential advantages over a uranium fuel cycle including much greater abundance on Earth, superior physical and nuclear properties of the fuel, enhanced proliferation resistance, and reduced nuclear waste production.[14] Nobel laureate Carlo Rubbia at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), has worked on developing the use of thorium as a cheap, clean and safe alternative to uranium in reactors. Rubbia states that a tonne of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tonnes of uranium, or 3,500,000 tonnes of coal.[15][16] One of the early pioneers of the technology was U.S. physicist Alvin Weinberg at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, who helped develop a working nuclear plant using liquid fuel in the 1960s.In 1997 the U.S. Energy Department underwrote research into thorium fuel, and research was also begun in 1996 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to study the use of thorium reactors. Nuclear scientist, Alvin Radkowsky, of Tel Aviv University in Israel, founded a consortium to develop thorium reactors, which included other companies: Raytheon Nuclear Inc., Brookhaven National Laboratory, and the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow.[17] Radkowsky was chief scientist in the U.S. nuclear submarine program directed by Admiral Hyman Rickover and later headed the design team which built the world's first civilian nuclear power plant at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, which was a scaled-up version of the first naval reactor.[17]Some countries, including India, are now investing in research to build thorium-based nuclear reactors. Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, said in 2009 that his country has a "long-term objective goal of becoming energy-independent based on its vast thorium resources."[18][19] In May 2010, researchers from Ben-Gurion University in Israel and Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York, received a grant to develop a thorium-based, self-sustaining light water reactor[20] that will produce and consume about the same amounts of fuel.[20] In the U.S., NASA scientist and thorium expert Kirk Sorensen calls it the "next giant leap" in energy technology, noting that the "potential energy in thorium is staggering," explaining how just 8 tablespoons of thorium could provide the energy used by an American during his or her lifetime.[21][22][edit]Benefits and challengesA 2005 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency discusses potential benefits along with the challenges of thorium reactors.[23] According to Australian science writer Tim Dean, "thorium promises what uranium never delivered: abundant, safe and clean energy – and a way to burn up old radioactive waste."[24] With a thorium nuclear reactor, Dean stresses a number of added benefits: there is no possibility of a meltdown, it generates power inexpensively, it does not produce weapons-grade by-products, and will burn up existing high-level waste as well as nuclear weapon stockpiles.[24] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, of the British Daily Telegraph, suggests that "Obama could kill fossil fuels overnight with a nuclear dash for thorium," and could put "an end to our dependence on fossil fuels within three to five years."[15] He also points out that "China is leading the way" with its own "dash for thorium," which it announced in March 2011.[25] India has also made thorium based nuclear reactors a priority with its focus on developing fast breeder technology. [26][27]
- The third approach to building resilience that I would like you to consider is local food production
- Why local food production? Why does Local Food Production increase Resilience Capacity?
- But oil and energy prices aside,… our increasing global population will also put pressures on the demand and price of food.Add to that the fact that our global population is increasing by 2 billion over the next 25 to 30 years, which will put huge pressures on food costs. The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase trading of key food products over the next 5 years As population numbers increase, there will be a corresponding increase in the demand for food. Moreover, as Climate change starts to cause reduction in the worldwide production of food, both the increased demand and the reduced supply will cause increase in food prices and possibly significant shortages in food supplies.
- And of course there is Climate Change! As climate change progresses there is a high probability that there will be an expansion of the two bands of desert that gird the earth. Above the existing Hadley Cells at about 25 degrees (at the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn) is a band of deserts. As the earth heats up these will expend north and south into what is not our most valueble farm land – the bread-baskets of the world in the United States, the Middle East, and in Australia.This stress on food supply will put significant pressure on all cities that cannot supply their own food from their local region.
- So how do we create more sustainable local sources of food for our cities?
- This is cute isn’t it! The “Omlet” backyard chicken coup!In fact there are fights going on all over North American cities about whether we should be allowed to keep chickens (and pigs for that matter) in our back yards. One chicken = one egg per day.Sounds great, but the reality is that to meet our yearly food requirements we will need a lot more agricultural land that our back yards will provide for – especially in cities.
- Agricultural Productivity Requirements:Per Capita Farmland Land requirement = 2 acresCity of Toronto requires 6,000,000 acres City of Vancouver Requires 4,000,000 acresIt is clear therefore that we have to look for local food production solutions that can be scaled to meet the demands of large dense cities.
- [Composite image showing vertical farm designs by Chris Jacobs, Gordon Graff, and SOA ARCHITECTES]One of the most compelling ideas I have seen in some time is the “high rise farm” proposal by Gordon Graff. I think many of you have heard about the various local food initiatives to create community urban gardens. However, I would like to introduce you to another approach to urban food: the image I am showing you here is a Masters Thesis Project by Gordon Graff that explores the possibility of creating high density urban farms – in this image he puts forward the idea of an high rise farm and food distribution centre.
- One of the most compelling ideas I have seen in some time is the “high rise farm” proposal by Gordon Graff. I think many of you have heard about the various local food initiatives to create community urban gardens. However, I would like to introduce you to another approach to urban food: the image I am showing you here is a Masters Thesis Project by Gordon Graff that explores the possibility of creating high density urban farms – in this image he puts forward the idea of an high rise farm and food distribution centre.
- The idea is really quite ingenious… it is basically a large scale high efficiency hydroponic “grow opp” that grows food instead of dope. And best of all>>>>>
- It uses municipal garbage and sewage to fuel the production of the electricity that powers its grow lights. So in this case: “Garbage in and Food Out!”
- The 4th Approach to creating Resilience Capacity looks at planning for modularized infrastructure systems. to increasing resilience capacity proposes that Cities explore how to more effectively Modularize their key infrastructure systems– like electrical power generation and water supply to build in enough separation and redundancy so that if one of the parts or “modules” for some reason fails or compromise by a shock or stress, it will not affect the other parts of the system – and create a cascading failure – and all of the modules will have enough redundancy that they would be able to compensate for the failed module.
- So why is it important to look at modularization?
- The Northeast blackout of 2003 was a widespread power outage that occurred throughout parts of the Northeastern and Midwestern United States and Ontario, Canada on Thursday, August 14, 2003, just before 4:10 p.m. EDT (UTC−04).[1] While some power was restored by 11 p.m., many did not get power back until 8 a.m. the next day[2] . At the time, it was the second most widespread blackout in history, after the 1999 Southern Brazil blackout.[3][4] The blackout affected an estimated 10 million people in Ontario and 45 million people in eight U.S. states.Causes[edit]BackgroundElectrical power cannot easily be stored over extended periods of time, and is generally consumed less than a second after being produced. The load on any network must be matched by the supply to it and its ability to transmit that power. Any overload of a power line, or underload/overload of a generator, can cause hard-to-repair and costly damage, so the affected device is disconnected from the network if a serious imbalance is detected.As power lines carry more current, they get hotter. This causes them to lengthen and sag between towers. They may safely reach a specified minimum clearance height above the ground. If the lines sag further, a flashover to nearby objects (such as trees) can occur, causing a transient increase in current. Automatic protective relays detect the high current and quickly act to disconnect the faulted line from service. To maintain the lines' specified operating clearance, the right-of-way must be kept clear of vegetation.Should a fault occur and take a line out of service, the change in current flow is compensated by other transmission lines, which must have enough spare capacity to carry the excess current. If they do not, overload protection in those lines will also trip, causing a cascading failure as the excess current is switched onto neighbouring circuits running at or near their capacity.System operators are responsible for ensuring that power supply and loads remain balanced, and for keeping the system within safe operational limits such that no single fault can cause the system to fail. After a failure affecting their system, operators must obtain more power from generators or other regions or "shed load" (meaning to intentionally cut power to some areas, or reducing voltage to a given area, creating a brownout) until they can be sure that the worst remaining possible failure anywhere in the system will not cause a system collapse. In an emergency, they are expected to immediately shed load as required to bring the system into balance.To assist the operators there are computer systems, with backups, which issue alarms when there are faults in the transmission or generation system. Power flow modeling tools let them analyze the current state of their network, predict whether any parts of it may be overloaded, and predict what the worst possible failure left is, so that they can change the distribution of generation or reconfigure the transmission system to prevent a failure should this situation occur. If the computer systems and their backups fail, the operators are required to monitor the grid manually, instead of relying on computer alerts. If they cannot interpret the current state of the power grid in such an event, they follow a contingency plan, contacting other plant and grid operators by telephone if necessary. If there is a failure, they are also required to notify adjacent areas which may be affected, so those can predict the possible effects on their own systems.Local operators are co-ordinated by regional centers, but the operating principle is the same whether the network is large or small.
- So How might we provide for effective modularization and integration?
- Exponential CIT technology development will over the next decade begin to see all “things” connected to create what is being termed “the internet of things”[Image from Wikipedia commons: Plot of CPU transistor counts against dates of introduction. Note the logarithmic vertical scale; the line corresponds to exponential growth with transistor count doubling every two years.]Over the next 20 to 30 years we will see a significant change in the world of technology. The human experience is accustomed to LINEAR change, but technology is changing at an exponential rate. WikipediaThe law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[6][7][8] The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every two years from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".[9] His prediction has proved to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.[10]This trend has continued for more than half a century. 2005 sources expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.[note 1][12] However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013,[13] after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every 3 years.
- Facebook intern Paul Butler has been poring through some of the data held by the social networking firm on its 500m members. He writes:Visualizing data is like photography. Instead of starting with a blank canvas, you manipulate the lens used to present the data from a certain angle.When the data is the social graph of 500 million people, there are a lot of lenses through which you can view it. One that piqued my curiosity was the locality of friendship. I was interested in seeing how geography and political borders affected where people lived relative to their friends. I wanted a visualization that would show which cities had a lot of friendships between them.I began by taking a sample of about ten million pairs of friends from Apache Hive, our data warehouse. I combined that data with each user's current city and summed the number of friends between each pair of cities. Then I merged the data with the longitude and latitude of each city.At that point, I began exploring it in R, an open-source statistics environment. As a sanity check, I plotted points at some of the latitude and longitude coordinates. To my relief, what I saw was roughly an outline of the world. Next I erased the dots and plotted lines between the points. After a few minutes of rendering, a big white blob appeared in the center of the map. Some of the outer edges of the blob vaguely resembled the continents, but it was clear that I had too much data to get interesting results just by drawing lines. I thought that making the lines semi-transparent would do the trick, but I quickly realized that my graphing environment couldn't handle enough shades of color for it to work the way I wanted.Instead I found a way to simulate the effect I wanted. I defined weights for each pair of cities as a function of the Euclidean distance between them and the number of friends between them. Then I plotted lines between the pairs by weight, so that pairs of cities with the most friendships between them were drawn on top of the others. I used a color ramp from black to blue to white, with each line's color depending on its weight. I also transformed some of the lines to wrap around the image, rather than spanning more than halfway around the world.
- Exponential CIT technology development will over the next decade begin to see all “things” connected to create what is being termed “the internet of things” “…together, the future of networks and sensors is sometimes called the ‘Internet of things,’ often imagined as a self-configuring wireless network of sensors interconnecting all things.” Vint Cerf, Google
- RFID chip next to a grain of rice. This chip contains a radio-frequency electromagnetic field coil that modulates an external magnetic field to transfer a coded identification number when queried by a reader device. This small type is incorporated in consumer products, and even implanted in pets, for identification. (see more at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio-frequency_identification )
- The first thing to do is implement a smart power grid – to more effective share and distribute powerDiagram based on:Greenpeace International,European RenewableEnergy Council (EREC)date June 2010project manager & leadauthorSven Teske, Greenpeace InternationalEREC ArthourosZervos,Christine Lins, JoscheMuthGreenpeaceInternationalSven Teskeresearch & co-authors DLR,Institute of TechnicalThermodynamics, Department ofSystemsAnalysis and TechnologyAssessment, Stuttgart, Germany: Dr.Wolfram Krewitt (†),Dr. ThomasPregger, Dr. SonjaSimon, Dr. TobiasNaegler. DLR, Institute of Vehicle2SMARTgrids:The task of integrating renewable energy technologies into existingpower systems is similar in all power systems around the world,whether they are large centralised networks or island systems. Themain aim of power system operation is to balance electricityconsumption and generation.Thorough forward planning is needed to ensure that the availableproduction can match demand at all times. In addition to balancingsupply and demand, the power system must also be able to:• Fulfil defined power quality standards – voltage/frequency -which may require additional technical equipment, and• Survive extreme situations such as sudden interruptions of supply,for example from a fault at a generation unit or a breakdown inthe transmission system.Integrating renewable energy by using a smart grid means movingaway from the issue of baseload power towards the question as towhether the supply is flexible or inflexible. In a smart grid aportfolio of flexible energy providers can follow the load during bothday and night (for example, solar plus gas, geothermal, wind anddemand management) without blackouts.A number of European countries have already shown that it is possibleto integrate large quantities of variable renewable power generationinto the grid network and achieve a high percentage of the total supply.In Denmark, for example, the average supplied by wind power is about20%, with peaks of more than 100% of demand. On those occasionssurplus electricity is exported to neighbouring countries. In Spain, amuch larger country with a higher demand, the average supplied bywind power is 14%, with peaks of more than 50%.Until now renewable power technology development has put most effortinto adjusting its technical performance to the needs of the existingnetwork, mainly by complying with grid codes, which cover such issues asvoltage frequency and reactive power. However, the time has come for thepower systems themselves to better adjust to the needs of variablegeneration. This means that they must become flexible enough to followthe fluctuations of variable renewable power, for example by adjustingdemand via demand-side management and/or deploying storage systems.The future power system will no longer consist of a few centralisedpower plants but instead of tens of thousands of generation unitssuch as solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable generation,partly distributed in the distribution network, partly concentrated inlarge power plants such as offshore wind parks.The trade off is that power system planning will become morecomplex due to the larger number of generation assets and thesignificant share of variable power generation causing constantlychanging power flows. Smart grid technology will be needed to supportpower system planning. This will operate by actively supporting dayaheadforecasts and system balancing, providing real-time informationabout the status of the network and the generation units, incombination with weather forecasts. It will also play a significant rolein making sure systems can meet the peak demand at all times andmake better use of distribution and transmission assets, therebykeeping the need for network extensions to the absolute minimum.
- But a more interesting and compelling strategy is to look for synergies between infrastructure systems. This pictogram by Che Biggs shows possible synergistic relationships between food, poer and water infrastructures Figure 2: Contrasting centralised and distributed systems.This shows how resource flows in conventaional systems are tend to be highly linear –from source to user - to point of disposal.On the other hand, the distributed model shows resources originating from many (multi-scale) sources. Resource flows are also more cyclic.The distributed systems model has four defining characteristics. They are..Figure 2: Contrasting centralised and distributed systems.This shows how resource flows in conventaional systems are tend to be highly linear –from source to user - to point of disposal.On the other hand, the distributed model shows resources originating from many (multi-scale) sources. Resource flows are also more cyclic.• Localised: Systems are designed for and positioned as close as feasible to points of resource supply and demand - reflecting the scale and context of local needs, conditions and resources.• Networked: Systems are linked and have the capacity to exchange - allowing information and resources to be transferred. Networks exist at a range of scales and reflect the varied intensity of supply and demand between individuals, suburbs, regions and nations.• Modular: Critical resources or services are generated by the collective capacity of multiple systems that can operate autonomously but also in connection with each other (via distribution networks). Networks of linked systems may also be modular –48 The term ‘Prosumer’ originates from Philip Kotler (1986).12Part Two: The promise of a distributed approachUSEFUL SOURCES:Kombikraftwerk - Germanyhttp://news.mongabay.com/bioenerg y/2007/12/germany-is-doing-it- reliable.html This link points to a short video of their distributed energy system that incorporates the use of a reservoir and hydro-turbines to modulate electricity loads in national grid.Brittle Power – Amory Lovinshttp://www.natcapsolutions.org/publications_files/brittlepower.htm This book is the most detailed examination of energy infrastructure design and its implications for energy security. Many of the same arguments apply to non-energy sectors. A pdf version of the book can be downloaded from this site.having the capacity to operate independently and combine with other networks toenable even wider resource distribution. • Open: Ownership and responsibility for the operation of systems is (more)democratic. This reflects the right for people and organisations to produce and exchange resources they generate within a more transparent environment where local stakeholders have a greater understanding and role in determining how resources are exploited.
- Again, at a micro scale this relationship is shown in our integrated resilience module
- The 5th Approach is quite closely related to the 4th approach. Integrated Metabolism looks for synergies between infrastructure systems to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of these systems at a citywide scale
- Why?
- “Katrina is comparable in intensity to Hurricane Camille of 1969, only larger,” warned the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, August 28, 2005. By this time, Hurricane Katrina was set to become one of the most powerful storms to strike the United States, with winds of 257 kilometers per hour (160 miles per hour) and stronger gusts. The air pressure, another indicator of hurricane strength, at the center of this Category 5 storm measured 902 millibars, the fourth lowest air pressure on record for an Atlantic storm. The lower the air pressure, the more powerful the storm.Two hours after the National Hurricane Center issued their warning, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) captured this image from NASA’s Terra satellite at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Savings Time. The massive storm covers much of the Gulf of Mexico, spanning from the U.S. coast to the Yucatan Peninsula
- Canada's first reported Fujita Scale F5 tornado approaching Elie, Manitoba,June 22nd, 2007
- Lakefront TypicalCondo Towers,TorontoPHOTO BYCRAIG APPLEGATH, 2009
- Lakefront TypicalCondo Towers,TorontoPHOTO BYCRAIG APPLEGATH, 2009
- Houston Morgan Chase Building after Hurricane IKE in Houston, Texas, 2009.PHOTO BYADAM BAKER, CREATIVE COMMONS
- I received these the next two charts from the WorldWatch …It shows the increase in recorded numbers of devastating natural disasters (category 5) between 1980 and 2008. The trend is pretty clear. But you guys know all of this stuff….Right?I mean, you wouldn’t be hear taking a day off work to attend the Green Building Festival unless you were a true believer, or at least sympathetic to these issues. However, I would like to draw your attention to two other key issues that deserve your attention!And that should have an important impact on the way you perceive the notion of “sustainability” Pause>>>>>>>> Next Slide
- Well of course if you specific and direct threats that you can predict, then “infrastructure hardening” will be one of the key strategies for building resilience capacity. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License.
- In many parts of the world, global warming will increase the frequency of storms, and the amounts of precipitation. As a result, we will need durable systems and structures that can withstand this.
- But today’s buildings are constructed in much more complicated ways – to keep the heat in and the cold out, and to deal with sismic loading.
- Service Quality X Service Life = DurabilityTwo components having an identical service life may exhibit different rates of deterioration for non-functional attributes. The service qualityof Component #2 is higher for longer, and would therefore be considered more durable. From an architectural perspective, the area under the curve measures durability.What we are looking at is a material that has a longer period of maintaining specified quality before we start heading into the inevitable long spiral of diminishing performance before replacement – as in it is better to have a material that maintains its properties for most of its service life rather than having a material that that loses most of its properties early in its installed condition that could prompt for a material replacement before the expected service life (think of the “ugly-out factor” – the carpets in an entrance area that get replaced after 5 years because you cannot get them clean any longer – they still function as a walk off mat, but no one likes the looks of them).
- I think that for both our public and private infrastructure we will need to begin to be more rigorous in our building design process. In addition to energy modeling, I think we will need to begin to model the impact of weather events on buildings and know in advance how they are going to react.
- I think we are also going to have to start thinking about what to do with our existing building stock that has NOT been designed for the impacts of “new normal” weath events. The image you see here is one taken from an exploration DIALOG is doing on how to retrofit existing buildings with weather protecting movable panels.
- [Animation from last slide]
- >>> So what are the opportunities for increasing the resilience of our cities to the potential shocks and stresses that will be produced by Climate Change and Population growth and Migration?>>> I think this list of opportunities (hard and soft infrastructure) gives a good sense of the structures and functions of a city that one would want to consider as we look to building resilience capacity. >>> However [click red square to appear] the last 5 are the ones that we as planners have the greatest possibility of influencing.OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE PUBLIC HEALTH EDUCATIONGOOD GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC HEALTHJUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITYHOUSING AND TRANSPORTATION C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTREENERGY INFRASTRUCTUREFOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTUREWATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
- >>> So what are the opportunities for increasing the resilience of our cities to the potential shocks and stresses that will be produced by Climate Change and Population growth and Migration?>>> I think this list of opportunities (hard and soft infrastructure) gives a good sense of the structures and functions of a city that one would want to consider as we look to building resilience capacity. >>> However [click red square to appear] the last 5 are the ones that we as planners have the greatest possibility of influencing.OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE PUBLIC HEALTH EDUCATIONGOOD GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC HEALTHJUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITYHOUSING AND TRANSPORTATION C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTREENERGY INFRASTRUCTUREFOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTUREWATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
- “Reality is one of the possibilities I cannot afford to ignore.”