The referendum in Moldova on changing the constitution to allow for direct election of the president failed to pass due to low voter turnout of 29.05%, below the required 33.33%. While not a total failure, implications include political parties redrawing plans and the possibility of repeated early elections if the issue of presidential elections is not resolved. Key factors in the low turnout included a boycott by the opposition Communist party, poor campaigning by pro-reform parties, and polarization following April protests.

1. Referendum in Moldova:
is it a failure and which
are the implications?
Leonid Litra, Cornel Ciurea IDIS “Viitorul”
The referendum held on September 5, 2010 in Moldova was considered almost
accomplished. The people were invited to express their opinion in favour / against
changing the Art. 78 of the Constitution that would allow the citizens to elect directly
the president. Despite the optimism that was haunting through the Alliance for
European Integration, the Central Electoral Commission announced the results of the
turnout – 29,05% out of 33,33% needed to be considered valid.
Let’s agree that the referendum is a semi-failure and not a total failure as some
already stated. In order to prove this it important to answer several questions: why
was the participation so low? Who’s to blame? How did the votes were divided? And
which are the implications for the upcoming period?
out of which 701,486 represent the
votes in favour of changing the Art. 78.
Dividing the votes – Comparing these numbers to July 29,
2009 early parliamentary elections, the
getting the puzzle difference is not very impressive as the
total votes of the 4 parties from the Al-
The referendum was not a failure due to liance were 808,598. The advise of the
the fact that traditionally in Moldova the Communist Party was easy to follow as
average participation rate is in between it requires no action and we cannot at-
55 and 60% (see other elections). Even tribute to them the people who didn’t
though the Communist Party, which is participate, even that 30% who are tra-
also the biggest opposition party, ad- ditionally voting for them, due to the
vised people to boycott the referendum, fact that, in their case, it is difficult to
the Alliance for European Integration measure, while in the case of Alliance we
succeeded to get an important result have concrete figures.
in a disadvantaged circumstance. It was
already mentioned that 35%-40% are
usually not participating in elections or
do not have access to vote (e. g. Moldo-
Who’s to blame?
vans that are illegally abroad). Out of the
The poor campaign deployed by the
remaining 60% almost half of them are
parties from the Alliance for European
representing the electorate of Commu-
Integration is only one of the reasons.
nist party and the rest are the voters of
More important is to pay attention to
the Alliance. Out of the turnout, 87,5%
the character of this campaign. Most
voted in favour of electing directly the
of the parties (especially Liberal-Dem-
president and the rest were against. In
ocrats and Democrats) promoted the
numbers the 29,05% represent 779,527

2. 2 Referendum in Moldova: is it a failure and which are the implications?
referendum, as it was both: referendum The obstacles that were artificially cre-
and presidential elections. It is clear ated by the self-proclaimed authorities
that none of the Alliance parties ever of Transnistria were frustrating Moldo-
seriously thought that the referendum vans who were willing to take part. But
will not pass and they were already pre- the most important problem because of
paring for the presidential elections. Transnistria is that most of these people
Also, it is noteworthy that there were are registered in the voters’ lists, while
3 opinion polls that besides the over- their participation is very low and imag-
whelming support for changing the Art. ine they wouldn’t be included in voters
78, were indicating a turnout ranging list, and then the referendum was, most
approximately in between 55% to 70%. probably to be considered as passed.
As the exit-poll at Chisinau level was or-
ganized, it clearly shows that the most In fact, Communists declared the refer-
active were the Liberal-democrats that endum failure as a great victory of de-
participated in amount of some 44%, mocracy in Moldova and a proof of rais-
the Liberal Party voters that participat- ing political conscience of Moldovan
ed at approximately 32%, Democrats at population. Despite being criticized by
some 16%, Communists at some 3,5% mass media and political commenta-
and Our Moldova Alliance at almost 2%. tors, the ruling parties interpreted the
These figures show that the July 2009 results in an optimistic vein, pretending
elections results are quite different di- that they are not so bad. In their opin-
vided within the Alliance, even if some ion, the low turnover rate of approxi-
candidates were more motivated to mately 30% reflects the hard core of
advocate for this referendum, because their electorate, which, in theory, seems
they had more chances lately to benefit to be bigger than the remaining frac-
out of this. The cause for this differenc- tion of unexpressed votes which could
es hinges in the heavy hand of identity be attributed to Communists, minor
and conflict politics. parties and people living abroad.
The polarization that boosted after
April 7 events is being observed in the Some eventual
referendum participation. As an ex-
ample could serve the Russian highly scenarios
populated Balti, which participated
at 18,9%. A worse example represents As a result of this referendum, the po-
the participation in Gagauzia that was litical landscape of Moldova is not
not exceeding 8,61% and the partici- changed dramatically but the political
pation of Bulgarians from Taraclia that parties are compelled to redraw their
amounted to 12,1%. The low partici- political plans. The ruling alliance an-
pation is also explained through the nounced that it will proceed immedi-
propaganda that was cleverly used by ately to the parliament dissolution and
communists, an example of a “victim” organization of the pre-term elections
of propaganda was a young man who which should take place in Novem-
said in an interview that he did not par- ber this year. Its position on this issue
ticipate because he does not want to be matches the point of view expressed by
occupied by Romania. Also, the Transn- the Communist leader Vladimir Voronin,
istria issue should not be overlooked. who advocated traditionally in favor of

3. Referendum in Moldova: is it a failure and which are the implications? 2
quick parliament dissolution, being at the opponents. The political leaders of
the same time not very specific regard- the existent AEI declared their intent to
ing the period of early elections. Taking pursue further the idea of direct elec-
into account the coming winter, which tion of the president but there is no clear
could erode the electoral score of the idea of how this could be implemented.
ruling Alliance, it could be concluded In fact, situation in the next parliament
that the Communist party would prefer could replicate the present situation.
spring as the optimal period of the or- In the new parliament, the parties will
ganization of pre-term elections. try to elect the president with 61 votes.
In case they manage to collect them,
The biggest problem is the postpone- the parliament is going to continue its
ment of the amendment of the article activity. If they fail, the parliamentar-
78 regarding the direct or indirect elec- ians will elect an interim President and
tion of the president. By letting this could proceed to the change of Con-
problem unresolved, the political par- stitution according to the Communist
ties condemned themselves to a very proposal of electing the President in
soon return to this problem in the next Parliament in three rounds. The other
parliament, whose political composi- possibility will be to try again to insist
tion doesn’t promise to be very differ- on the direct election of the president
ent. Practically, all the parliamentarian but this initiative will take much longer
parties could change the Constitution because of the 6 month provision and it
in the present representative body, by is highly problematic due to the recent
voting the constitutional initiative reg- failure of referendum. If the Parliament
istered by the Constitutional Court in changes the Constitution according to
May 2010 about voting the president in the communist’s proposal, the parlia-
the parliament in three rounds, the last ment is again dissolved and new early
one allowing the president to be elect- elections should be organized.
ed with 52 votes, i.e. a simple majority.
Such a decision will facilitate immense- The threat of never-ending sequence of
ly the president election in the future repetitive elections is so high that the
and the cancellation of the political political parties are practically obliged
stalemate. This possibility is not to be to find a compromise in order to avoid
welcomed by any party which doesn’t the ridicule. They should come to an
want to allow a decisive victory to their agreement and vote the president in
opponents in case of its own marginal- the parliament by 61 votes. It means
ization. that in the next parliament a possible
“malefic contamination” could take
It seems to be that the main political place between the opposing political
parties want to reproduce the present camps that could be drawn forcefully in
stalemate in the next legislative, hop- a complicity determined by the neces-
ing in the meantime that something will sity to escape the stalemate.
happen which will help them to beat
Str. Iacob Hîncu 10/1, Chişinău MD-2005 Republic of Moldova
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