75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
Immigration is one of the key issues which will affect how people vote in the upcoming EU referendum, along with the effect on the economy and Britain’s sovereignty, a new Ipsos MORI study published today finds.
The survey of c.4,000 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration change over time.
Presentation from Ipsos MORI's "The state of Britain and Brexit" event on 8 June 2016. With speakers including Gaby Hinsliff, The Guardian, Tim Montgomerie, The Times and Vicky Pryce, CEBR.
The Tinman Referendum: The EU debate is lacking heart in ScotlandIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI Scotland and IPPR Scotland conducted three in-depth focus groups in different locations in Scotland with people who were voting each way, as well as undecided voters.
Understanding the EU Referendum through IRTIpsos UK
New research provides an insight into not just what people say about the European Union (EU), but also with how much conviction they hold their views. The research provides revealing findings for both sides of the debate. Using a technique called Implicit Reaction Time (IRT), which measures how quickly people express an opinion, the research gives an indication of the strength of people’s feelings towards leaving or staying in the European Union (EU) and areas of weak association that may indicate differences between what people say and how they will vote on 23 June. Eleven issues relating to the EU debate were tested, capturing both the explicit (stated) support for leaving or staying in the EU, and the extent to which this support is held emphatically without doubt.
Ipsos MORI - BBC Newsnight Post-Referendum ResearchIpsos UK
A post-referendum survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for BBC Newsnight reveals that leave voters and remain voters still hold very opposing views towards the EU referendum result, while very few on either side say they would change their vote if a second referendum were to be held.
The research, carried out online among 18-75 year olds, finds that 89% of leave voters say that the referendum result was the right decision for the United Kingdom, while exactly the same proportion of remain voters say it was the wrong one. Similarly, 80% of leave voters say the result makes them feel more hopeful for the future, but 83% of remain voters say it makes them less hopeful.
The vast majority of those who said they voted on June 23rd say they would vote the same way in a second referendum – 90% of leave voters and 94% of remain voters. Remain voters are marginally more certain that they would not change their mind (85% say they would definitely vote the same way, compared with 79% of leave voters).
Economic Considerations and the EU ReferendumIpsos UK
A new Ipsos MORI study published today finds the public is not optimistic about levels of EU investment in the UK or its ability to export to the EU over the next five years if Britain votes to leave the EU in next month’s referendum.
Ipsos MORI Scotland: Public Opinion Monitor June 2016Ipsos UK
As we enter the final week of campaigning ahead of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), our new poll for STV News suggests that the majority of Scots will back the campaign to retain membership.
Among those who are likely to vote next week, 58% would vote for the UK to stay in the EU while 33% support Brexit and 8% are undecided. Once we have removed undecided voters, 64% back Remain and 36% Brexit.
An Ipsos MORI poll of just over 1,000 British adults finds expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.
Immigration is one of the key issues which will affect how people vote in the upcoming EU referendum, along with the effect on the economy and Britain’s sovereignty, a new Ipsos MORI study published today finds.
The survey of c.4,000 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration change over time.
Presentation from Ipsos MORI's "The state of Britain and Brexit" event on 8 June 2016. With speakers including Gaby Hinsliff, The Guardian, Tim Montgomerie, The Times and Vicky Pryce, CEBR.
The Tinman Referendum: The EU debate is lacking heart in ScotlandIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI Scotland and IPPR Scotland conducted three in-depth focus groups in different locations in Scotland with people who were voting each way, as well as undecided voters.
Understanding the EU Referendum through IRTIpsos UK
New research provides an insight into not just what people say about the European Union (EU), but also with how much conviction they hold their views. The research provides revealing findings for both sides of the debate. Using a technique called Implicit Reaction Time (IRT), which measures how quickly people express an opinion, the research gives an indication of the strength of people’s feelings towards leaving or staying in the European Union (EU) and areas of weak association that may indicate differences between what people say and how they will vote on 23 June. Eleven issues relating to the EU debate were tested, capturing both the explicit (stated) support for leaving or staying in the EU, and the extent to which this support is held emphatically without doubt.
Ipsos MORI - BBC Newsnight Post-Referendum ResearchIpsos UK
A post-referendum survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for BBC Newsnight reveals that leave voters and remain voters still hold very opposing views towards the EU referendum result, while very few on either side say they would change their vote if a second referendum were to be held.
The research, carried out online among 18-75 year olds, finds that 89% of leave voters say that the referendum result was the right decision for the United Kingdom, while exactly the same proportion of remain voters say it was the wrong one. Similarly, 80% of leave voters say the result makes them feel more hopeful for the future, but 83% of remain voters say it makes them less hopeful.
The vast majority of those who said they voted on June 23rd say they would vote the same way in a second referendum – 90% of leave voters and 94% of remain voters. Remain voters are marginally more certain that they would not change their mind (85% say they would definitely vote the same way, compared with 79% of leave voters).
Economic Considerations and the EU ReferendumIpsos UK
A new Ipsos MORI study published today finds the public is not optimistic about levels of EU investment in the UK or its ability to export to the EU over the next five years if Britain votes to leave the EU in next month’s referendum.
Ipsos MORI Scotland: Public Opinion Monitor June 2016Ipsos UK
As we enter the final week of campaigning ahead of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), our new poll for STV News suggests that the majority of Scots will back the campaign to retain membership.
Among those who are likely to vote next week, 58% would vote for the UK to stay in the EU while 33% support Brexit and 8% are undecided. Once we have removed undecided voters, 64% back Remain and 36% Brexit.
An Ipsos MORI poll of just over 1,000 British adults finds expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Ipsos MORI Post EU Referendum Consumer Confidence SurveyIpsos UK
One in ten UK consumers have opted to delay or abandon a big spending decision because of the EU referendum result, a survey by Ipsos MORI for the Telegraph has found. However, the majority (57%) expect their personal financial situation will be unchanged over the next six months.
The research, among more than 1,000 UK adults aged between 16 and 75, finds just over a quarter (26%) had been planning a big spending commitment, such as a holiday, car or house move for the coming six months. Of those, 16% have decided to go ahead with the purchase as planned, but 5% have decided to delay and another 5% have decided not to continue at all.
As we have for every general election since 1979, Ipsos MORI has produced estimates of how the voters voted in 2017. Here are the key findings from the results.
Having examined William Hague's leadership of the Conservative Party in 1999 across 7 key opinion points, we have applied the same tests to Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party. William Hague scored 2 out of 7. How does Ed Miliband score?
Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - EuropeIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.
Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Labour Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
The Rt Hon Margaret Hodge, Fabian Women’s Ellie Cumbo and The Guardian’s chief political correspondent, Andrew Sparrow formed the Labour panel.Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
With just one week to go until the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union Ipsos MORI finds Leave with a six point lead over Remain. When excluding the “don’t knows” and those not registered, and using our standard turnout filter 53% say they will vote for Britain to leave the EU while 47% say they will vote to remain.
In a unique survey, Ipsos MORI will be interviewing a longitudinal panel of respondents on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign.
This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views change.
For the first wave we have also interviewed an unusually large sample of the public (over 4,500), which allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election.
UK General Election Scenario Analysis: Impact on Policy, Theresa May and Ster...Olivier Desbarres
In less than 24 hours the British electorate will start voting in the election for the 650-seat House of Commons with the result expected early in the morning of Friday 9th June.
While the last general election was only held two years ago, there is arguably as much if not more at stake this time round than in May 2015.
Opinion polls still point to the ruling Conservatives winning a record-high 44% of the national vote ahead of the opposition Labour Party, but polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions still display great inconsistency.
Ultimately it is the number of seats which British parties command which matters and the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to predict.
You Gov’s constituency-specific model forecasts the Conservatives winning only 304 seats as a result of a record number of “wasted” votes, a 26-seat loss and well short of both a working and absolute majority. Labour would increase its seat numbers from 229 to 266.
This would result in a hung parliament and either a coalition or minority government.
My own model points to the Conservatives winning around 360 seats (55.4% of total) and Labour 212 seats. Admittedly, this prediction is based on a number of assumptions, namely the net share of votes which Conservatives gain from other parties as well as voter turnout.
Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority remains a tough call and there is an almost infinite number of possible outcomes.
However, I have narrowed down in Figure 10 the number of seats the Conservatives could win to eight possible scenarios, in each case assessing i) Their probability; ii) Their numerical impact on the Conservatives’ majority (or lack thereof); and iii) The risk of opposition parties and/or Conservative backbenchers high-jacking the policy agenda.
Figure 11 assesses for each of the eight scenarios their likely impact on iv) Theresa May’s standing within the Conservative Party and v) Sterling and currency volatility.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, two events beyond British shores also scheduled for 8th June – the ECB’s policy meeting and Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee – will conceivably exacerbate Sterling volatility.
Europeans' attitudes to the UK's EU referendumIpsos UK
Half of people in nine European countries believe UK will vote to leave the EU
• Half think Brexit could lead to a ‘domino effect’
• Europeans more likely to think Brexit will harm the EU than the UK
• On the eve of Europe Day, four in ten Europeans foresee a reduced EU by 2020
With the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership on 23 June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos reveals that half (49%) of Europeans in eight other EU countries believe that Britain will vote to leave the EU. The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.
Our final poll for the EU Referendum reveals that 52% of people say they will vote to Remain in the European Union while 48% say they will vote to Leave. Fieldwork conducted on 21-22 June 2016.
Presentation from Ipsos MORI's event on 13 September 2016, with speakers Nick Clegg MP, Polly Toynbee, Tim Montgomerie and Paul Drechsler, Chair of the CBI. The latest research on how Britain voted in the EU Referendum; what the vote for Brexit means to Britons; and what are the attitudes of other EU and non-EU countries to the referendum result. View the best of the tweets: https://storify.com/ipsosmori/britain-after-the-referendum-what-next
Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor: November 2015Ipsos UK
With fewer than six months to go before Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Holyrood Parliament, our new poll for STV News shows the SNP still significantly ahead while the Scottish Conservatives have gained ground.
Shifting ground: New political dividing lines? The interaction between leave/...Ipsos UK
In a new study from Ipsos MORI we shed light on the relationship between how people voted in the EU Referendum and their support for the two main political parties. The study finds that on some attitudes leavers and remainers are united, despite 27% of Labour voters who voted in the Referendum voted to leave, compared to 60% of Conservative Referendum voters.
The similarities among leavers and remainers across the political divide include: immigration, nostalgia for the past and distrust in globalisation. However, on a number of other issues, such as whether society should emphasise collectivism over individualism, party political lines are still very strong.
European Elections - MEPs and Constituent CommunicationFTI Consulting FR
The EU is going through an existential crisis. Support for the EU is at an all-time low across a swathe of Member States. The campaigns for the forthcoming European Parliament elections (22-25 May) have represented an important opportunity for current and candidate MEPs to explain to citizens what the EU is and does, and the benefits of membership. But has that opportunity been squandered? FTI Consulting examine the results of some proprietary research conducted at how successful MEPs have been in communicating about the EU in the run up to the elections.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016Ipsos UK
As David Cameron ramps up his efforts this week to secure a new deal for Britain in the EU Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little change from January amongst the public when it comes to how they will vote in the referendum on EU membership. When asked the referendum question “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” the poll finds a majority (54%) would vote to remain a member (down 1 point from January) and 36% would vote to leave (no change). Ipsos MORI’s trend question on EU membership also reveals little difference from last month. When asked “if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?” half (51%) would vote to stay in (up 1 point) while 36% would vote to get out (down 2 points).
Olivier Desbarres - UK Election Special – When Two Tribes Go To WarOlivier Desbarres
British voters will on Thursday 8th June vote on the composition of the 650-seat House of Commons – the third major popular vote in two years – after Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision back in April to trigger early general elections.
Theresa May’s motivations were arguably four-fold: (1) Win a popular rather than party mandate, (2) Capitalise on the massive lead in the polls the ruling Conservatives enjoyed over the opposition Labour Party and thus allow her to push through her own agenda, including a possibly softer form of Brexit, (3) Allow the government more time to secure a new EU trade deal, and (4) Strengthen the government’s stance in negotiations with the EU.
Objectives (1) and (3) will likely be met but objectives (2) and (4) may prove more elusive.
Opinion polls point to a trend-fall in popular support for the Conservatives to around 44% and sharp rise for Labour to 35%, with the gap between the two main parties halving to about 9pp from 20pp six weeks ago. Aggregate support for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, SNP and Green Party is flat-lining around 18%.
However, there is still great discrepancy amongst polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions. Moreover the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to translate share of votes into seats numbers. Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority, as You Gov currently predicts, is a tough call.
Nevertheless, a number of important themes have emerged in recent months.
First, the slingshot campaign has exposed the frailty and flaws of the Conservative machine, including of its leader and manifesto, and reinforced my view, first set out in December, that the government is ill-equipped, ill-prepared and lacking in institutional capacity to negotiate complex deals with the EU and non-EU partners.
Second, it is a two-horse race between the ruling Conservatives and Labour, with the other parties on course to secure only a modest number of seats – a break with recent elections.
Finally, the political centre of gravity has shifted to the left, with in particular tax rates likely to rise regardless of which party wins next week’s election.
My core scenario is a hollow victory for the Conservatives: 360-370 seats with a low voter turnout. This would reduce the risk of opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs torpedoing government legislation but would fall short of the landslide victory which Conservatives thought possible back in April.
Finally, a modest (or even significant) increase in the Conservative’s parliamentary majority is unlikely to materially improve the government’s hand when negotiating with the EU.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Ipsos MORI Post EU Referendum Consumer Confidence SurveyIpsos UK
One in ten UK consumers have opted to delay or abandon a big spending decision because of the EU referendum result, a survey by Ipsos MORI for the Telegraph has found. However, the majority (57%) expect their personal financial situation will be unchanged over the next six months.
The research, among more than 1,000 UK adults aged between 16 and 75, finds just over a quarter (26%) had been planning a big spending commitment, such as a holiday, car or house move for the coming six months. Of those, 16% have decided to go ahead with the purchase as planned, but 5% have decided to delay and another 5% have decided not to continue at all.
As we have for every general election since 1979, Ipsos MORI has produced estimates of how the voters voted in 2017. Here are the key findings from the results.
Having examined William Hague's leadership of the Conservative Party in 1999 across 7 key opinion points, we have applied the same tests to Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party. William Hague scored 2 out of 7. How does Ed Miliband score?
Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - EuropeIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.
Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Labour Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
The Rt Hon Margaret Hodge, Fabian Women’s Ellie Cumbo and The Guardian’s chief political correspondent, Andrew Sparrow formed the Labour panel.Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
With just one week to go until the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union Ipsos MORI finds Leave with a six point lead over Remain. When excluding the “don’t knows” and those not registered, and using our standard turnout filter 53% say they will vote for Britain to leave the EU while 47% say they will vote to remain.
In a unique survey, Ipsos MORI will be interviewing a longitudinal panel of respondents on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign.
This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views change.
For the first wave we have also interviewed an unusually large sample of the public (over 4,500), which allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election.
UK General Election Scenario Analysis: Impact on Policy, Theresa May and Ster...Olivier Desbarres
In less than 24 hours the British electorate will start voting in the election for the 650-seat House of Commons with the result expected early in the morning of Friday 9th June.
While the last general election was only held two years ago, there is arguably as much if not more at stake this time round than in May 2015.
Opinion polls still point to the ruling Conservatives winning a record-high 44% of the national vote ahead of the opposition Labour Party, but polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions still display great inconsistency.
Ultimately it is the number of seats which British parties command which matters and the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to predict.
You Gov’s constituency-specific model forecasts the Conservatives winning only 304 seats as a result of a record number of “wasted” votes, a 26-seat loss and well short of both a working and absolute majority. Labour would increase its seat numbers from 229 to 266.
This would result in a hung parliament and either a coalition or minority government.
My own model points to the Conservatives winning around 360 seats (55.4% of total) and Labour 212 seats. Admittedly, this prediction is based on a number of assumptions, namely the net share of votes which Conservatives gain from other parties as well as voter turnout.
Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority remains a tough call and there is an almost infinite number of possible outcomes.
However, I have narrowed down in Figure 10 the number of seats the Conservatives could win to eight possible scenarios, in each case assessing i) Their probability; ii) Their numerical impact on the Conservatives’ majority (or lack thereof); and iii) The risk of opposition parties and/or Conservative backbenchers high-jacking the policy agenda.
Figure 11 assesses for each of the eight scenarios their likely impact on iv) Theresa May’s standing within the Conservative Party and v) Sterling and currency volatility.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, two events beyond British shores also scheduled for 8th June – the ECB’s policy meeting and Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee – will conceivably exacerbate Sterling volatility.
Europeans' attitudes to the UK's EU referendumIpsos UK
Half of people in nine European countries believe UK will vote to leave the EU
• Half think Brexit could lead to a ‘domino effect’
• Europeans more likely to think Brexit will harm the EU than the UK
• On the eve of Europe Day, four in ten Europeans foresee a reduced EU by 2020
With the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership on 23 June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos reveals that half (49%) of Europeans in eight other EU countries believe that Britain will vote to leave the EU. The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.
Our final poll for the EU Referendum reveals that 52% of people say they will vote to Remain in the European Union while 48% say they will vote to Leave. Fieldwork conducted on 21-22 June 2016.
Presentation from Ipsos MORI's event on 13 September 2016, with speakers Nick Clegg MP, Polly Toynbee, Tim Montgomerie and Paul Drechsler, Chair of the CBI. The latest research on how Britain voted in the EU Referendum; what the vote for Brexit means to Britons; and what are the attitudes of other EU and non-EU countries to the referendum result. View the best of the tweets: https://storify.com/ipsosmori/britain-after-the-referendum-what-next
Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor: November 2015Ipsos UK
With fewer than six months to go before Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Holyrood Parliament, our new poll for STV News shows the SNP still significantly ahead while the Scottish Conservatives have gained ground.
Shifting ground: New political dividing lines? The interaction between leave/...Ipsos UK
In a new study from Ipsos MORI we shed light on the relationship between how people voted in the EU Referendum and their support for the two main political parties. The study finds that on some attitudes leavers and remainers are united, despite 27% of Labour voters who voted in the Referendum voted to leave, compared to 60% of Conservative Referendum voters.
The similarities among leavers and remainers across the political divide include: immigration, nostalgia for the past and distrust in globalisation. However, on a number of other issues, such as whether society should emphasise collectivism over individualism, party political lines are still very strong.
European Elections - MEPs and Constituent CommunicationFTI Consulting FR
The EU is going through an existential crisis. Support for the EU is at an all-time low across a swathe of Member States. The campaigns for the forthcoming European Parliament elections (22-25 May) have represented an important opportunity for current and candidate MEPs to explain to citizens what the EU is and does, and the benefits of membership. But has that opportunity been squandered? FTI Consulting examine the results of some proprietary research conducted at how successful MEPs have been in communicating about the EU in the run up to the elections.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016Ipsos UK
As David Cameron ramps up his efforts this week to secure a new deal for Britain in the EU Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little change from January amongst the public when it comes to how they will vote in the referendum on EU membership. When asked the referendum question “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” the poll finds a majority (54%) would vote to remain a member (down 1 point from January) and 36% would vote to leave (no change). Ipsos MORI’s trend question on EU membership also reveals little difference from last month. When asked “if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?” half (51%) would vote to stay in (up 1 point) while 36% would vote to get out (down 2 points).
Olivier Desbarres - UK Election Special – When Two Tribes Go To WarOlivier Desbarres
British voters will on Thursday 8th June vote on the composition of the 650-seat House of Commons – the third major popular vote in two years – after Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision back in April to trigger early general elections.
Theresa May’s motivations were arguably four-fold: (1) Win a popular rather than party mandate, (2) Capitalise on the massive lead in the polls the ruling Conservatives enjoyed over the opposition Labour Party and thus allow her to push through her own agenda, including a possibly softer form of Brexit, (3) Allow the government more time to secure a new EU trade deal, and (4) Strengthen the government’s stance in negotiations with the EU.
Objectives (1) and (3) will likely be met but objectives (2) and (4) may prove more elusive.
Opinion polls point to a trend-fall in popular support for the Conservatives to around 44% and sharp rise for Labour to 35%, with the gap between the two main parties halving to about 9pp from 20pp six weeks ago. Aggregate support for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, SNP and Green Party is flat-lining around 18%.
However, there is still great discrepancy amongst polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions. Moreover the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to translate share of votes into seats numbers. Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority, as You Gov currently predicts, is a tough call.
Nevertheless, a number of important themes have emerged in recent months.
First, the slingshot campaign has exposed the frailty and flaws of the Conservative machine, including of its leader and manifesto, and reinforced my view, first set out in December, that the government is ill-equipped, ill-prepared and lacking in institutional capacity to negotiate complex deals with the EU and non-EU partners.
Second, it is a two-horse race between the ruling Conservatives and Labour, with the other parties on course to secure only a modest number of seats – a break with recent elections.
Finally, the political centre of gravity has shifted to the left, with in particular tax rates likely to rise regardless of which party wins next week’s election.
My core scenario is a hollow victory for the Conservatives: 360-370 seats with a low voter turnout. This would reduce the risk of opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs torpedoing government legislation but would fall short of the landslide victory which Conservatives thought possible back in April.
Finally, a modest (or even significant) increase in the Conservative’s parliamentary majority is unlikely to materially improve the government’s hand when negotiating with the EU.
Chinese PMI very sensitive to underlying economic activityOlivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve has 23 more days worth of data and market developments to analyse before its policy meeting.
China’s official and (unofficial) Caixin manufacturing data for May will be released tomorrow and Friday before the usual deluge of monthly economic indicators. Markets tend to give weight to the early release of PMI data in the world’s second largest economy and the question is whether this is justified.
Looking at data for the past decade, there was a good correlation up till about 2012 between China’s official manufacturing PMI and exports, imports, industrial output, retail sales and GDP, with the added advantage of the PMI leading by a couple of months. However, since then these correlations on the surface appear to have broken down, even if we use the sub-components of headline PMI.
The main issue is seemingly one of calibration. Since 2012, the official manufacturing PMI has only fallen marginally in a narrow 49.0-51.7 range while monthly economic indicators have weakened considerably. If we shorten the time scale, the PMI’s correlations with monthly data again look reasonable.
Markets need to take into account this increased sensitivity of the PMI data, as small moves may ultimately be associated with significant changes in underlying economic activity.
Even so, the official manufacturing PMI has seemingly over-estimated China’s economic strength in recent months. An alternative view point is that monthly economic indicators are about to rebound quite sharply.
The unofficial Caxin manufacturing PMI data – which have been more volatile than the official measure – and the official non-manufacturing PMI have even over longer time-frames been somewhat better correlated with monthly economic indicators. They too point to a rebound in economic activity in coming months.
Non-Japan Asia currencies, led by led by the CNY, IDR and THB, have staged a mini comeback in the past ten days. This is broadly in line with my expectations that precedent suggested that NJA currencies would stabilise and possibly appreciate gradually after a month of relative weakness. NJA central banks are seemingly comfortable with this modest currency rebound…for now.
Olivier Desbarres: UK economy post referendum – for richer, but mostly for po...Olivier Desbarres
We may well never know the true extent of the impact of the EU referendum outcome on the British economy, markets and ultimately standards of living. This may not be the most satisfying conclusion, but this uncertainty is one which policy-makers will have to grapple with.
As to the bigger question of whether the UK is better off today or will be better off in years to come when one takes into account not only the impact on the economy but also broader, less tangible issues such as sovereignty, the answer is and will likely remain even more subjective.
In any case, available data paint a patchy picture of the UK economy post-referendum. Construction and services have been harder hit than manufacturing. Retail sales were strong in July thanks in part to a robust labour market and plentiful lending. While this defies the collapse in consumer confidence temporary factors may also have been at play.
The residential property market at a national level has been softer but resilient post referendum. Mortgage lending remains depressed but government policies are for now more likely to blame. The commercial property market has been harder hit.
Sterling’s 10% collapse since the referendum, following a 10% depreciation between November and June, is seemingly supporting economic growth and demand for UK assets even if history suggests that it is no panacea. Its inflationary impact has so far been very modest but the risk is a squeeze on profit margins and real wages.
At the same time sterling’s collapse has tangibly eroded the UK’s net wealth, at least when expressed in foreign-currency terms – a fact largely ignored by policy-makers and the media.
I would expect the BoE to continue favouring monetary and credit policies which explicitly help spur lending, spending and investment and, implicitly at least, help cap sterling. While this may not translate into another policy rate cut or round of QE near-term, the BoE is likely to keep this option firmly on the table if the UK economy fails to return to trend in the next six months.
Business and Brexit: The risks of taking a stanceIpsos UK
British adults think that businesses should be involved in the EU referendum debate – but that doesn’t mean they will trust them. When asked whether different types of business should take part in the EU referendum campaign, support was high for British businesses to participate by publicly backing one side or the other, especially SMEs. However, this does not necessarily mean the public trust what big businesses say on the issues.
The new survey finds three-quarters (75%) of the public say that small and medium-size British businesses should participate in the debate – more than say the same for other groups such as academics (68%), think tanks (54%) and newspapers (52%). The contributions of SMEs are more welcome than those of big businesses – but still nearly seven in ten (69%) of British adults are happy for big British businesses which trade internationally to make their opinion on Brexit known. However, while three-fifths (57%) say that they trust small business owners on issues relating to the referendum, leaders of large businesses fare worse, being trusted on the issues by just three in ten (29%).
British Attitudes to Immigration: March 2018Ipsos UK
Just under half (44%) say that migration has had a positive impact on Britain according to a new Ipsos MORI survey among British adults aged 18-75. Three in ten (30%) say migration’s impact has been negative on the country while one in five (20%) say its impact has been neutral. These findings are consistent with previous research by Ipsos MORI which found the British public’s attitudes towards migration have become more positive since the referendum.
French politics, UK macro data and possible GBP/EUR downsideOlivier Desbarres
• The GBP/EUR cross is at year-highs but continues to struggle to breach the 1.20 mark, as it did on a number of occasions in the second half of 2016.
• Sterling has been buoyed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for early general elections on 8th June while the euro remains in reasonably narrow trading ranges as we head into Sunday’s French presidential election first round.
• With four presidential candidates polling between 18.5% and 23.5%, it is still a close call.
• But I am sticking to my core scenario that independent centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron will fill one of the top two spots to make it to the 7th May run-off, which I my view would be welcomed by French financial markets and the euro even if markets remain jittery over the next fortnight.
• At the same time, the ever-changing political scene in the UK can do little near-term to avert the headwinds to GDP growth stemming from falling real wages and retail sales.
• With this in mind, I see the risk to GBP/EUR biased to the downside in coming weeks, particularly if both Macron and Republican candidate François Fillon earn their place in the second round.
In new research carried out by Ipsos MORI and King’s College London, just under half of Britons (45%) say it is very important to them who wins the election, matching figures normally seen at the very height of the election campaign itself in 2010 and 2005. Indeed, only six months before the last election in November 2009, just 35% said the election result was very important to them. More infomation: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/oneyearout
Britain vs. London: Attitudes After the Brexit VoteMarshall Manson
Results of an Ogilvy PR survey comparing attitudes of non-Londoners with people who live in London. In particular, we explored whether non-Londoners and Londoners felt they shared the same values and attitudes, and identified a huge post-Brexit gap between non-Londoners and people who live inside the M25.
In 2016, Morgan McKinley surveyed a cross section of the
working population to assess their thoughts on the decision to leave the EU. Fast forward to the present day and Morgan McKinley has completed a follow-up survey to gauge the thoughts of the UK working population a year and a half on from
the referendum.
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos UK
Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos MORI presents his initial view of the accuracy of polls in the UK's Election of 2015. Read our statement here: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1680/In-response-to-the-2015-Election-results.aspx
Weber Shandwick and Pure Profile engaged with 1000 British consumers across the country to measure the different forms of engagement and how this has shaped voter's perception of the referendum
Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: March 2018Ipsos UK
Scots are gloomy about Brexit’s likely impact on the economy - but more oppose holding another independence referendum in the next three years than support it
Support for independence rises as referendum speculation growsIpsos UK
As the UK government prepares to begin formal negotiations to leave the European Union and the SNP prepares for its forthcoming spring conference, our new poll for STV News shows voters split down the middle in their constitutional preference.
Among those who expressed a voting preference and who would be very likely or certain to vote in an immediate referendum, 50% (+2pts) said they would support independence with the other 50% of voters (-2pts) saying they would back Scotland remaining in the UK.
The British Population Survey Financial Optimism Index measures the population's optimism about their personal financial Prospects.
The latest figures are the first ones collected after the May 2015 General Election and show how the result has affected their mood.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
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what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
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1. 1
EU Referendum survey results:
UK will very likely remain in EU and sterling may appreciate
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-
makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK
remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I
conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents
who did not have a view are excluded.
By comparison, the latest poll-of-polls conducted by What UK Thinks has the “remain” vote
on 52% and “leave” vote on 48% five weeks before this crucial vote. But caution is
warranted given the large share of undecided voters, the importance of turnout and
differing results depending on whether polls are by phone or on-line. Current prices offered
by betting companies suggest a comfortable victory for the “remain” vote.
Of the 130 respondents with a view which I surveyed, 65% forecast that the UK leaving the
EU would be negative for the British economy medium-term. 19% forecast that it would be
positive and 15% that it would be neutral1. This is broadly in line with the view expressed
by Prime Minister Cameron and “remain” camp, the Bank of England and IMF.
The risk to the currency is forecast to be somewhat asymmetric. There is an overwhelming
view amongst those surveyed that, if the UK leaves the EU, sterling will depreciate while
38% forecast sterling to depreciate or remain stable should the UK remain in the EU.
Specifically, out of 131 respondents, 81% forecast that if the electorate votes for the UK to
leave the EU, sterling would depreciate between the referendum and end-year against the
currencies of the UK’s key competitors. Only 8% forecast that sterling would appreciate,
while 6% thought that the currency would be broadly stable. 6% did not express a view.
But out of 127 respondents, only 54% forecast that if the UK remains in the EU sterling
would appreciate. 11% forecast that sterling would depreciate, while 27% thought the
currency would be broadly stable. 8% did not express a view.
These survey results tend to back my view, expressed in What to expect in 2016 – same,
same but worse, that the electorate will vote for the UK to remain in the EU and that the
lifting of this uncertainty will see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate.
But any currency rally is likely to be moderate given the UK’s structural deficiencies,
including a large current account deficit, low productivity and weak wage growth, and a
dovish central bank. A “remain” vote will not address these vulnerabilities near-term.
Finally, a note of caution. Like all polls, this survey may contain unintended biases which
are difficult to ascertain let alone measure accurately.
1 Total may not add up to 100% due to rounding
2. 2
The survey consisted of four sets of questions and was open from 10th
May 2016 (12:00) to 16th
May 2016
(12:00). Respondents could chose to skip one or more questions. I would like to thank the 131 analysts,
consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers, portfolio managers, sell-side
salespeople, strategists and traders who responded to this survey.
Broad consensus forecast that UK will remain in the EU
Question 1: How do you expect the UK electorate to vote in the 23rd
June 2016 referendumon EU
membership?
75% of the 130 respondents surveyed forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK
remaining in the European Union in the 23rd June referendum (see Figure 1). That ratio jumps to 81%
when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
Figure 1: 75% of survey respondents forecast that UK will remain in the EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents: 130 (one respondent skipped this question)
Popular opinion polls have “remain” marginally ahead of “leave” but many caveats
By comparison, the latest poll-of-polls conducted by What UK Thinks, which averages the results of the last
six phone and on-line opinion polls, has the “remain” vote on 52% and “leave” vote on 48% (Figure 2)2
. The
2 The question posed is the one approved by the Electoral Commission for the actual referendum: “Should the United
Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Will stay Will leave Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who expect the UK to stay/leave the EU
3. 3
“leave” vote has only been ahead of the “remain” vote once since September and has on averaged trailed
the “remain” vote by about 4.2 percentage points (see Figure 3).
Figure 2: “Remain” vote slightly ahead of “leave”
vote
Figure 3: “Remain” vote has been ahead by an
average 4.2pp since early September
Source: What UK Thinks
*Note: 3 (2 online, 1 phone) polls by ICM, 1 (online) poll
by YouGov, 1 (online) poll by TNS and 1 (phone) poll by
ORB. The most recent addition is a poll by YouGov that
was conducted between16 and 17 May.
Source: What UK Thinks
But caution is warranted, due amongst other factors to i) the large share of undecided voters, ii) the
importance of turnout, and iii) the difference in results between online and phone surveys.
The Daily Telegraph estimates that in the 100 EU referendum polls conducted since early September,
undecided voters accounted on average for 15%. While assumptions can be made about how they will
ultimately vote on referendum day, these undecided voters could swing the outcome either way.
Moreover, turnout may influence the referendum’s outcome with those who support the “leave” camp more
likely to definitely vote according to ORB. In its last poll conducted on 11-15th
May, ORB found that 53% of
respondents would vote “remain” – an increase of 2 percentage points from a poll conducted on 20-24th
April – and 39% backed “leave” – a 4 percentage point decrease. But this large gap shrinks considerably if
we take into account that 53% of “remain” voters and 62% of “leave” voters said they would definitely vote.
If only those voters are included, support for “remain” falls to 51% while support for “leave” rises to 45%
(see Figure 4).
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Mar 16 May 16
Remain Leave
Poll of polls, % of respondents*
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Mar 16 May 16
Poll of polls, percentage point gap
between "remain" and "leave" votes
Poll of polls, percentage point gap
between "remain" and "leave" votes
Average +4.2pp
4. 4
Figure 4: Those who will definitely vote are more likely to support “leave” camp, according to ORB
Source: ORB
Finally, since the start of September, phone polls suggest an average 17 percentage point lead for “remain”
while online polls have it at just 2 percentage points according to the Daily Telegraph3
. In the latest ICM
poll conducted on 13-15th
May, the phone poll had the “remain” vote comfortably ahead of the “leave” vote
but the online poll had the “leave” vote slightly ahead (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Referendum outcome differs based on whether phone or web-based poll
Source: What UK Thinks, Guardian ICM
Betting companies’ pricing points to comfortable “remain” victory
The inherent limitations of opinion polls were made evident in the 2015 general elections, with none of the
polls predicting the incumbent Conservative Party’s comfortable victory. As a result there has been
increasing focus on betting companies’ odds of a “remain” or “leave” victory.
After all, while those polled may have a reason not to declare their true voting intentions, they are more
likely to put their money where their mouths are when real financial gains (or losses) are at stake. Prices
offered by the main UK bookmakers point to a clear “remain” victory, with odds of 1/4 for the UK to remain
in the EU and 11/4 for the UK to leave the EU.
3 As there have been three times as many online polls as phone polls, the weighted average of the difference between
the “remain” and “leave” votes is skewered towards the online poll results.
Date Remain in EU Exit EU Gap (pp) Undecided
11-15 May 53 39 14 9
20-24 April 51 43 8 6
Date Remain in EU Exit EU Gap (pp) Undecided
11-15 May 51 45 6 4
20-24 April 51 46 5 3
All respondents (%)
Respondents who will definitely vote (%)
Company Date Type Remain in EU Leave EU Undecided Remain in EU
(exc undecided)
Leave EU (exc
undecided)
What UK Thinks 6-17 May Av. of 6 latest polls1 52% 48%
Guardian ICM 13-15 May phone 47% 39% 14% 55% 45%
on-line 43% 47% 10% 48% 52%
5. 5
My core scenario remains a victory for “remain” vote
Any forecast of the referendum outcome remains tentative but I maintain my core scenario expressed in
What to expect in 2016 – same, same but worse (19 January 2016) that Prime Minister Cameron will
secure a “remain” vote, premised on:
1. The greater domestic support for the “remain” vote from the political and business sphere as well as
international community, which will count when campaigning really intensifies in coming weeks.
2. The UK’s electorate’s conservative nature. The “yes” vote in Scotland’s 2014 referendum on UK
membership suggests that the collective desire to be part of a union should not be under-estimated,
while the incumbent Conservative Party’s convincing win in the May 2015 elections underlines the
electorate’s affinity for continuity, rather than the unknown.
Two-thirds of respondents think UK leaving EU would be negative for British economy
Question 2: If the UK electorates votes in favour of the UK leaving the EU, do you think this will be
positive, negative or neutral for the British economy medium-term?
65% of the 131 respondents forecast that the UK leaving the EU would be negative for the British economy
medium-term. 19% forecast that it would be positive and 15% that it would be neutral. One respondent did
not have a view (see Figure 6). This is broadly in line with the assessment presented by Prime Minister
Cameron, Chancellor Osborne and the “remain” camp, as well as the Bank of England and International
Monetary Fund.
In its latest quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England concluded that “a vote to leave the EU could have
material economic effects – on the exchange rate, on demand and on the economy’s supply potential […].
Aggregate demand would also likely fall, relative to our forecast, in the face of tighter financial conditions,
lower asset prices, and greater uncertainty about the UK’s trading relationships. Households could defer
consumption, and firms could delay investment. Global financial conditions could also tighten, generating
potential negative spillovers to foreign activity that, in turn, could dampen demand for UK”.
The IMF, in its latest Article IV Consultation, concluded that if the UK remained in the EU GDP growth
would rebound in H2 2016. Conversely, the UK leaving the EU would:
Lead to a protracted period of heightened uncertainty and financial market volatility;
Substantially depress UK productivity, trade, output, incomes, consumption, investment and fiscal
revenues;
Potentially weaken UK equity and house prices; and
Potentially increase UK borrowing costs for households and businesses and inflation.
6. 6
Figure 6: 65% of respondents think that the UK leaving the EU would be negative for the British economy
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents 131
Respondents forecast asymmetric sterling reaction-function
Question 3: If the UK electorate votes in favour of the UK leaving the EU, how do you expect
sterling to perform between the referendumand end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key
competitors?
Figure 7: 81% of respondents forecast sterling to depreciate post-referendum should UK leave EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk;Note: Number of survey respondents 131
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Positive Negative Neutral Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who think the UK leaving the EU would be positive/negative/neutral for
the British economy medium-term
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Appreciate Depreciate Neither
Percentage of respondents who think that if the UK leaves the EU, sterling will
appreciate/depreciate/neither against trading partner currencies
7. 7
Out of 131 respondents, 81% forecast that if the electorate votes for the UK to leave the EU, sterling would
depreciate between the referendum and end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key competitors (see
Figure 7). Only 8% forecast that sterling would appreciate, while 6% thought that the currency would be
broadly stable. 6% did not express a view. If the 8 respondents who did not have a view are excluded, the
percentage of respondents expecting sterling to depreciate rises to 86%.
Question 4: If the UK electorate votes in favour of the UK remaining in the EU, how do you expect
sterling to perform between the referendumand end-year against the currencies of the UK’s key
competitors?
Out of 127 respondents, only 54% forecast that if the UK remains in the EU sterling would appreciate (see
Figure 8). 11% forecast that sterling would depreciate, while 27% thought the currency would be broadly
stable. 8% did not express a view. If the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded, the
percentage of respondents expecting sterling to appreciate rises to 59%.
Figure 8: 54% of respondents forecast sterling to appreciate post-referendum should UK remain in the EU
Source: www.olivierdesbarres.co.uk; Note: Number of survey respondents 127
Sterling likely to appreciate post referendum if UK votes to remain in EU
These survey results tend to back my view, expressed in What to expect in 2016 – same, same but worse,
that the electorate will vote for the UK to remain in the EU and that the lifting of this uncertainty will see a
reasonably competitive sterling appreciate.
There has been mounting evidence that domestic and foreign companies have curtailed or delayed
investment in the UK, with domestic companies also prone to freezing hiring a as a direct result of the
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Appreciate Depreciate Neither Don’t know
Percentage of respondents who think that if the UK stays in the EU, sterling will
appreciate/depreciate/neither against trading partner currencies
8. 8
uncertainty associated with the referendum outcome. In UK referendum on EU membership – darkness
before dawn (26 February 2016), I highlighted eight layers of uncertainty: 1. How the electorate will vote; 2.
The (un)reliability of opinion polls; 3. The lack of political unity; 4. The lack of precedent; 5. The lack of
explicit contingency plans; 6. Prime Minister Cameron’s future; 7. The possibility of another Scottish
referendum; and 8. The possibility of a second EU referendum if the result on 23rd
June is too close to call.
UK gross fixed capital formation, seasonally-adjusted, contracted 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2015 – the
largest contraction in over three years (see Figure 9). Similarly, business investment shrunk 2% qoq in Q4
2015 – the second largest quarterly contraction in seven years – which wiped out the growth in the previous
two quarters. Delayed or curtailed investment has in all likelihood contributed to business and consumer
confidence falling to multi-month lows (see Figure 10), which in turn depressed consumer spending,
investment and GDP growth in Q1 20164
(see Figure 11).
A “remain” victory on 23rd
June would remove this uncertainty with a return to the norm and likely unlock
delayed or curtailed investments in capital and labour. In the event of a “leave” victory, there would still be a
great deal of uncertainty near-term as ultimately there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and
thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on.
Figure 9: Business investment and gross fixed
capital formation growth slowed sharply in Q4…
Figure 10: …and business and consumer
confidence has fallen further in recent months…
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: Gfk, Markit Economics
Moreover, the British economy is likely to benefit at the margin from the lagged impact of a more
competitive currency even if weak global demand is likely to dull any narrowing of the UK trade deficit.
Sterling’s trade weighted index (TWI) has recovered slightly in the past few weeks, but is still down 9% from
its seven-and-a-half-year high recorded nine months ago according to my estimates (see Figure 12).
4 A breakdown of Q1 2016 GDP is due for release on 26th May
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012
Q2
2013
Q1
2013
Q4
2014
Q3
2015
Q2
2016
Q1
Business investment
Gross fixed capital formation
quarter-on-quarter % change
(seasonally adjusted)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Apr-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Apr-16
UK manufacturing PMI (left scale)
UK consumer confidence (GfK)
9. 9
Figure 11: …likely depressing UK GDP growth in
Q1 2016
Figure 12: Sterling TWI is still down 9% from
multi-year high in August
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: investing.com
Finally, sterling’s depreciation should, all other things being equal, have an inflationary impact (as the
sterling-cost of imports rises). This may be sufficient for the Bank of England to communicate a less dovish,
if not more hawkish, policy stance even if core inflation, which has been running at 1.2-1.5% year-on-year,
is unlikely to become an issue in the near-term.
Post-referendum rally likely blunted by underlying UK imbalances and dovish central bank
However, any currency rally is likely to be moderate until the government addresses structural deficiencies,
including a large current account deficit, low productivity, still-high levels of household debt and fiscal
deficits and weak wage growth, and the Bank of England turns more hawkish. The fact that survey
respondents are less confident about sterling appreciating in a “remain” scenario than they are about
sterling depreciating in a “leave” scenario may indeed be due to these underlying weaknesses which a
“remain” vote will not fully address.
Specifically, the UK is running a record-high current account deficit (see Figure 13), as a result of a
widening of the goods and services trade deficit, a decrease in receipts from direct investment and portfolio
investment abroad and an increase in payments to foreign direct investors.
At the same time the Bank of England is showing no sign of wanting to hike its record-low policy rate of
0.5%, in the face of tepid wage and consumer price inflation. While the UK unemployment rate has been
stable near a record-low of 5.1% since October, growth in real earnings (including bonuses) has slowed
sharply in recent months, suggesting there is still a fair degree of slack in the UK labour market (see Figure
14). This is likely contributing to modest core-inflation which fell to 1.2% year-on-year in April and remains
steady around its 2-year average.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012
Q2
2013
Q1
2013
Q4
2014
Q3
2015
Q2
2016
Q1
Household consumption GDP
quarter-on-quarter % change
(seasonally adjusted)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Apr 10 Sep 11 Feb 13 Jul 14 Dec 15
GBP vs other key trading
partner currencies
GBP/EUR
Index (23 April 2010 = 100)
10. 10
Figure 13: UK current account has risen
sharply…even with the UK in the EU
Figure 14: Despite near record-low unemployment
rate, UK real earnings growth has slowed sharply
Source: Office of National Statistics Source: Office of National Statistics
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3
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7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1999 Q4 2003 Q4 2007 Q4 2011 Q4 2015 Q4
4-quarter rolling, GBP billions
% of GDP, right scale
UK current account deficit
(seasonally adjusted)
4
5
6
7
8
9
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan 07 Feb 09 Mar 11 Apr 13 May 15
Real weekly earnings inc bonuses,
% year-on-year
Unemployment rate, % (right scale)