- US economic growth is expected to remain sub-trend at around 1.2-2.2% in Q3 2012 due to ongoing household deleveraging and fiscal drag. Unemployment is expected to remain elevated.
- Risks include a slowdown in the Eurozone and potential policy mistakes around fiscal tightening.
- Global manufacturing is slowing due to weak demand in Europe, the US, and a growth moderation in China.
The document summarizes an economic analysis predicting a "W-shaped" recovery over the next few years for the US economy. It states that massive fiscal stimulus financed by monetary easing could lead to GDP growth resuming in late 2009, but this stimulus could also cause inflation and further monetary tightening, risking another recession in 2011-2012. Downside risks to the economy remain substantial in the near-term, with GDP forecast to contract sharply again in Q1 2009 and several indicators like housing remaining weak.
- The document is an economic outlook report from Wells Fargo for 2010 that discusses challenges and opportunities facing the US and global economies in the coming year.
- It states that while the recession may be over, 2010 will still be difficult with risks remaining. The economy has been thrown off course and is still unstable.
- The report identifies three main problems: 1) how to stabilize the economy with policy tools, 2) determining the new economic course and growth pace, and 3) how goals of growth, inflation, jobs, and the dollar have changed.
- The outlook predicts subpar 2.2% growth in 2010 with contributions from rising consumer spending, business investment, housing, and federal spending but high
This document provides an economic outlook for 2010 from Wells Fargo Economics Group. It discusses three main problems facing the economic recovery: 1) how to stabilize the economy using policy tools, 2) determining the pace and composition of economic growth, and 3) how goals for growth, inflation, employment, and the dollar have changed. While the recession may be over, growth in 2010 will be subpar and uneven. Risks include high unemployment, weakness in housing and consumer spending, and the sustainability of the recovery without government support. Policymakers must determine how long expansionary policies can continue given rising public debt and dependence on foreign capital.
This document discusses reversing declining middle class jobs and incomes in the United States. It provides 12 figures analyzing job and income trends since the 1950s which show that (1) job growth was much weaker in the 2000s than previous decades, (2) median earnings have stagnated since 1981, and (3) the share of middle class incomes has declined since 1980. The figures also show that economic growth and job growth resumed in 2009 and have continued since.
William Hobbs' presentation from Propel's recent "Predictions for Digital 2013" event. For more content like this, go to www.propellondon.com/blog or follow us on Twitter - @propellondon
The Saturday Economist : UK recoveries compared 1930 2012 John Ashcroft
The document compares the UK recessions and recoveries of 1930, 1980, 1990 to the current recession from 2008. It finds that the 2008 recession was steeper than previous recessions. The recovery was in line with previous recessions until 2011, but has since faltered, with the economy now flatlining and output still below pre-recession levels. In contrast to previous strong recoveries, the current recovery lacks stimulus, with constrained government spending, household spending, and weak investment awaiting growth in domestic demand.
The document examines how Asia remains important for global economic growth and wealth creation despite challenges from the eurozone crisis. It revisits conclusions from a previous report that Asia's high net worth population will grow substantially through 2015, driven primarily by China, India, and Indonesia. While Asia has remained relatively insulated from the eurozone crisis, continued weakness in Europe could potentially impact Asian growth through financial markets, exports, and credit exposure over the medium term. The report aims to stress test previous assumptions about Asia's wealth creation in a more difficult global environment.
The document summarizes an economic analysis predicting a "W-shaped" recovery over the next few years for the US economy. It states that massive fiscal stimulus financed by monetary easing could lead to GDP growth resuming in late 2009, but this stimulus could also cause inflation and further monetary tightening, risking another recession in 2011-2012. Downside risks to the economy remain substantial in the near-term, with GDP forecast to contract sharply again in Q1 2009 and several indicators like housing remaining weak.
- The document is an economic outlook report from Wells Fargo for 2010 that discusses challenges and opportunities facing the US and global economies in the coming year.
- It states that while the recession may be over, 2010 will still be difficult with risks remaining. The economy has been thrown off course and is still unstable.
- The report identifies three main problems: 1) how to stabilize the economy with policy tools, 2) determining the new economic course and growth pace, and 3) how goals of growth, inflation, jobs, and the dollar have changed.
- The outlook predicts subpar 2.2% growth in 2010 with contributions from rising consumer spending, business investment, housing, and federal spending but high
This document provides an economic outlook for 2010 from Wells Fargo Economics Group. It discusses three main problems facing the economic recovery: 1) how to stabilize the economy using policy tools, 2) determining the pace and composition of economic growth, and 3) how goals for growth, inflation, employment, and the dollar have changed. While the recession may be over, growth in 2010 will be subpar and uneven. Risks include high unemployment, weakness in housing and consumer spending, and the sustainability of the recovery without government support. Policymakers must determine how long expansionary policies can continue given rising public debt and dependence on foreign capital.
This document discusses reversing declining middle class jobs and incomes in the United States. It provides 12 figures analyzing job and income trends since the 1950s which show that (1) job growth was much weaker in the 2000s than previous decades, (2) median earnings have stagnated since 1981, and (3) the share of middle class incomes has declined since 1980. The figures also show that economic growth and job growth resumed in 2009 and have continued since.
William Hobbs' presentation from Propel's recent "Predictions for Digital 2013" event. For more content like this, go to www.propellondon.com/blog or follow us on Twitter - @propellondon
The Saturday Economist : UK recoveries compared 1930 2012 John Ashcroft
The document compares the UK recessions and recoveries of 1930, 1980, 1990 to the current recession from 2008. It finds that the 2008 recession was steeper than previous recessions. The recovery was in line with previous recessions until 2011, but has since faltered, with the economy now flatlining and output still below pre-recession levels. In contrast to previous strong recoveries, the current recovery lacks stimulus, with constrained government spending, household spending, and weak investment awaiting growth in domestic demand.
The document examines how Asia remains important for global economic growth and wealth creation despite challenges from the eurozone crisis. It revisits conclusions from a previous report that Asia's high net worth population will grow substantially through 2015, driven primarily by China, India, and Indonesia. While Asia has remained relatively insulated from the eurozone crisis, continued weakness in Europe could potentially impact Asian growth through financial markets, exports, and credit exposure over the medium term. The report aims to stress test previous assumptions about Asia's wealth creation in a more difficult global environment.
SANTANDER CONSUMER FINANCE-SANTANDER INVESTOR DAY 2011BANCO SANTANDER
Santander Consumer Finance se mueve en niveles récord de beneficios en 2011 y continuará haciéndolo en 2012 y 2013. Presentación Magda Salarich. Santander Investor Day 2011
Saint Lucia is a Caribbean island country with a population of 172,000 people within an area of 619 square km. Its GDP grew between 2000-2010, though it declined in 2009. The current account balance was negative throughout this period due to imports exceeding exports. Exports include edible fruits and beverages, while imports are mostly mineral fuels and vehicles. The main trade partners are the United Kingdom, United States, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados. Travel is the top service export, while transportation leads imports.
Temple Leadership Seminar Outlook Talk 2 19 2009mgala
The document summarizes the state of the US economy in early 2009. It notes that actual 2008 economic growth, employment, and inflation were significantly weaker than had been forecast the previous year. Housing prices declined substantially across most states and the sharp drops in home values and stock prices reduced household wealth. The recession caused job losses averaging 250,000 per month since late 2007, and unemployment rose significantly. Businesses reduced inventories and cut back on investment in response to weak sales and economic uncertainty.
The document provides economic indicators and trade statistics for the Dominican Republic from 2000 to 2010. It summarizes that the Dominican Republic has a population of 10 million and area of 48,072 square km. GDP grew steadily from 2000 to 2010, while inflation decreased from highs in the early 2000s. The current account balance was negative for most years. The United States was the top market for both Dominican exports and imports. Major exports included electrical equipment, plastics, and tobacco, while mineral fuels and plastics were among top imports. Travel was the leading service export and import.
The document provides an economic update from the Young Fabians in August 2019. It summarizes recent UK economic developments, including GDP contracting in Q2 2019 for the first time since 2012, a weakening housing market, and slowing global growth due to trade wars. It then looks forward, noting potential GDP recovery in Q3 but continued trade tensions. Charts show declining business and consumer confidence, falling stock markets, and downgraded GDP and higher unemployment forecasts by the IMF and YFEF compared to other institutions.
Investment and economic update by Major League Investments regarding investment news, stocks, bonds, precious metals and trends by Michael Finer and Gary Coon
The document provides economic and trade indicators for The Bahamas from 2000-2010. It shows that the Bahamas' GDP grew between 2000-2008 but declined in 2009, while inflation has remained between 1-4.5% annually. The country runs a large current account deficit, between -11.2% to -18.9% of GDP. The top export partner is the US, while the top imports are from the US and include mineral fuels, vehicles, and electrical equipment. The trade deficit in goods widened over 2004-2008 but the services trade balance was positive.
1) The document discusses macroeconomic and market forecasts for Thailand for 2011. It predicts Thailand's GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2011, with consumption growth at 3.7%, investment growth at 8.8%, and exports and imports both growing 10%.
2) Inflation is forecast to be 3.3% in 2011, and the Thai baht is predicted to weaken against the US dollar to 29 THB/USD by the end of 2011. Interest rates are also expected to rise in Thailand.
3) The document recommends a sector reallocation in Thai stocks towards services, commodities, energy, agriculture, media, hotels, hospitals, commerce, contractors, and industrial estates.
Belize has a population of 307,000 and an area of 22,965 square km. Its main economic indicators from 2000-2010 show GDP growth averaging around 4% annually, with GDP per capita around $4,000. Its current account balance is negative, averaging around -$0.1 billion or -7% of GDP. Inflation has averaged around 3% and unemployment around 10%. Exports are led by seafood, sugar, and fuel, mainly to the US, UK, and Central America. Imports are led by fuel, electronics, and vehicles, mainly from the US, Netherlands, and Central America. Services exports are led by travel, while transportation and travel dominate imports.
The document discusses the outlook for the Thai baht and Thai economy, noting that calling the direction of the USD/THB exchange rate has become difficult given various political and economic uncertainties. It recommends holding USD/THB options for the next 1-2 months and reducing equity portfolio levels while waiting for the SET index to fall further before accumulating shares in sectors focused on domestic consumption. Forecasts are provided for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and other economic indicators through 2012.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2012. On the international front, it notes the recovery of the US economy as positive but also highlights risks from high financial market volatility and recession in Europe. Domestically, it outlines strengthening indicators for the US economy like consumer confidence and job growth. Growth in Asia, especially China, is expected to remain strong. Risks to the outlook include continued volatility in Europe if fiscal and political integration is not achieved.
This document provides economic and trade data for Dominica from 2000 to 2010. It shows that Dominica's GDP grew slowly from 2000 to 2010, ranging from $0.27 to $0.38 billion, while GDP per capita increased from $3,802 to $5,120. Dominica consistently ran large current account deficits, ranging from -15.7% to -31.8% of GDP. The top imports to and exports from Dominica in 2008 were also listed.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
The document provides an overview of Enel SpA's 2011 results and 2012-2016 strategic plan. Key points include:
1) Enel reported a 1.4% increase in EBITDA for 2011 to €17.7 billion, though net income declined 5.5% to €4.1 billion due to higher taxes.
2) The strategic plan outlines macroeconomic assumptions for mature and growth markets and focuses on priorities like efficiencies in mature markets and growth in emerging markets.
3) The plan expects challenges in 2012 from declining demand in Italy, Spain, and mature markets as well as overcapacity issues, while forecasting organic growth to boost profitability in Latin America.
Haiti has a population of 10 million and an area of 27,750 square kilometers. Its GDP grew between 2000 and 2010, though it experienced declines in some years. Inflation ranged from 1.5% to 51.5% during this period. Haiti's main exports include articles of apparel, edible fruit and essential oils, while its main imports are cereals, iron and steel, cotton, and vehicles. The United States is Haiti's largest trading partner.
Guyana has a population of 762,000 and an area of 214,969 square km. Its GDP has grown each year from 2000 to 2010, with GDP per capita reaching $2,831 in 2010. The country runs a current account deficit, which was -10% of GDP in 2008. Exports are primarily fish, rice, sugar, gold, and bauxite; imports include petroleum, manufactured goods, and machinery.
The document summarizes the IMF's projections for global economic growth in 2013 and 2014 from its January 2013 World Economic Outlook update. It finds that:
1) Global growth is projected to gradually increase in 2013 as factors slowing growth in recent years ease, but the recovery will be more gradual than previously expected.
2) While policy actions have reduced crisis risks in Europe and the US, growth remains weak in Europe and may be weaker than projected, with downside risks remaining significant.
3) Growth is forecast to increase modestly in the US and pick up in emerging markets, but contract further in Japan and remain weak in Europe overall.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document provides an overview and instructions for the Amazon Marketplace storefront called TikimanBooks. It discusses what TikimanBooks is, the order and cancellation processes, and return processes for customers and the seller. The order process involves customers purchasing books on Amazon, which are then fulfilled by Amazon or directly by TikimanBooks. Customers can cancel or modify orders within 30 minutes, after which returns must be processed through Amazon within 30 days. The seller processes returns using Amazon Seller Central, RAMP, and OPS systems to authorize returns and issue refunds.
SANTANDER CONSUMER FINANCE-SANTANDER INVESTOR DAY 2011BANCO SANTANDER
Santander Consumer Finance se mueve en niveles récord de beneficios en 2011 y continuará haciéndolo en 2012 y 2013. Presentación Magda Salarich. Santander Investor Day 2011
Saint Lucia is a Caribbean island country with a population of 172,000 people within an area of 619 square km. Its GDP grew between 2000-2010, though it declined in 2009. The current account balance was negative throughout this period due to imports exceeding exports. Exports include edible fruits and beverages, while imports are mostly mineral fuels and vehicles. The main trade partners are the United Kingdom, United States, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados. Travel is the top service export, while transportation leads imports.
Temple Leadership Seminar Outlook Talk 2 19 2009mgala
The document summarizes the state of the US economy in early 2009. It notes that actual 2008 economic growth, employment, and inflation were significantly weaker than had been forecast the previous year. Housing prices declined substantially across most states and the sharp drops in home values and stock prices reduced household wealth. The recession caused job losses averaging 250,000 per month since late 2007, and unemployment rose significantly. Businesses reduced inventories and cut back on investment in response to weak sales and economic uncertainty.
The document provides economic indicators and trade statistics for the Dominican Republic from 2000 to 2010. It summarizes that the Dominican Republic has a population of 10 million and area of 48,072 square km. GDP grew steadily from 2000 to 2010, while inflation decreased from highs in the early 2000s. The current account balance was negative for most years. The United States was the top market for both Dominican exports and imports. Major exports included electrical equipment, plastics, and tobacco, while mineral fuels and plastics were among top imports. Travel was the leading service export and import.
The document provides an economic update from the Young Fabians in August 2019. It summarizes recent UK economic developments, including GDP contracting in Q2 2019 for the first time since 2012, a weakening housing market, and slowing global growth due to trade wars. It then looks forward, noting potential GDP recovery in Q3 but continued trade tensions. Charts show declining business and consumer confidence, falling stock markets, and downgraded GDP and higher unemployment forecasts by the IMF and YFEF compared to other institutions.
Investment and economic update by Major League Investments regarding investment news, stocks, bonds, precious metals and trends by Michael Finer and Gary Coon
The document provides economic and trade indicators for The Bahamas from 2000-2010. It shows that the Bahamas' GDP grew between 2000-2008 but declined in 2009, while inflation has remained between 1-4.5% annually. The country runs a large current account deficit, between -11.2% to -18.9% of GDP. The top export partner is the US, while the top imports are from the US and include mineral fuels, vehicles, and electrical equipment. The trade deficit in goods widened over 2004-2008 but the services trade balance was positive.
1) The document discusses macroeconomic and market forecasts for Thailand for 2011. It predicts Thailand's GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2011, with consumption growth at 3.7%, investment growth at 8.8%, and exports and imports both growing 10%.
2) Inflation is forecast to be 3.3% in 2011, and the Thai baht is predicted to weaken against the US dollar to 29 THB/USD by the end of 2011. Interest rates are also expected to rise in Thailand.
3) The document recommends a sector reallocation in Thai stocks towards services, commodities, energy, agriculture, media, hotels, hospitals, commerce, contractors, and industrial estates.
Belize has a population of 307,000 and an area of 22,965 square km. Its main economic indicators from 2000-2010 show GDP growth averaging around 4% annually, with GDP per capita around $4,000. Its current account balance is negative, averaging around -$0.1 billion or -7% of GDP. Inflation has averaged around 3% and unemployment around 10%. Exports are led by seafood, sugar, and fuel, mainly to the US, UK, and Central America. Imports are led by fuel, electronics, and vehicles, mainly from the US, Netherlands, and Central America. Services exports are led by travel, while transportation and travel dominate imports.
The document discusses the outlook for the Thai baht and Thai economy, noting that calling the direction of the USD/THB exchange rate has become difficult given various political and economic uncertainties. It recommends holding USD/THB options for the next 1-2 months and reducing equity portfolio levels while waiting for the SET index to fall further before accumulating shares in sectors focused on domestic consumption. Forecasts are provided for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and other economic indicators through 2012.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2012. On the international front, it notes the recovery of the US economy as positive but also highlights risks from high financial market volatility and recession in Europe. Domestically, it outlines strengthening indicators for the US economy like consumer confidence and job growth. Growth in Asia, especially China, is expected to remain strong. Risks to the outlook include continued volatility in Europe if fiscal and political integration is not achieved.
This document provides economic and trade data for Dominica from 2000 to 2010. It shows that Dominica's GDP grew slowly from 2000 to 2010, ranging from $0.27 to $0.38 billion, while GDP per capita increased from $3,802 to $5,120. Dominica consistently ran large current account deficits, ranging from -15.7% to -31.8% of GDP. The top imports to and exports from Dominica in 2008 were also listed.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
The document provides an overview of Enel SpA's 2011 results and 2012-2016 strategic plan. Key points include:
1) Enel reported a 1.4% increase in EBITDA for 2011 to €17.7 billion, though net income declined 5.5% to €4.1 billion due to higher taxes.
2) The strategic plan outlines macroeconomic assumptions for mature and growth markets and focuses on priorities like efficiencies in mature markets and growth in emerging markets.
3) The plan expects challenges in 2012 from declining demand in Italy, Spain, and mature markets as well as overcapacity issues, while forecasting organic growth to boost profitability in Latin America.
Haiti has a population of 10 million and an area of 27,750 square kilometers. Its GDP grew between 2000 and 2010, though it experienced declines in some years. Inflation ranged from 1.5% to 51.5% during this period. Haiti's main exports include articles of apparel, edible fruit and essential oils, while its main imports are cereals, iron and steel, cotton, and vehicles. The United States is Haiti's largest trading partner.
Guyana has a population of 762,000 and an area of 214,969 square km. Its GDP has grown each year from 2000 to 2010, with GDP per capita reaching $2,831 in 2010. The country runs a current account deficit, which was -10% of GDP in 2008. Exports are primarily fish, rice, sugar, gold, and bauxite; imports include petroleum, manufactured goods, and machinery.
The document summarizes the IMF's projections for global economic growth in 2013 and 2014 from its January 2013 World Economic Outlook update. It finds that:
1) Global growth is projected to gradually increase in 2013 as factors slowing growth in recent years ease, but the recovery will be more gradual than previously expected.
2) While policy actions have reduced crisis risks in Europe and the US, growth remains weak in Europe and may be weaker than projected, with downside risks remaining significant.
3) Growth is forecast to increase modestly in the US and pick up in emerging markets, but contract further in Japan and remain weak in Europe overall.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document provides an overview and instructions for the Amazon Marketplace storefront called TikimanBooks. It discusses what TikimanBooks is, the order and cancellation processes, and return processes for customers and the seller. The order process involves customers purchasing books on Amazon, which are then fulfilled by Amazon or directly by TikimanBooks. Customers can cancel or modify orders within 30 minutes, after which returns must be processed through Amazon within 30 days. The seller processes returns using Amazon Seller Central, RAMP, and OPS systems to authorize returns and issue refunds.
Please find attached our 2012 Review and 2013 Outlook. This is a sample of the exclusive content our subscribers receive on a daily basis. For more information or a trial please visit bloombergbriefs.com
The Korea Fund underperformed the MSCI Korea benchmark in the second quarter of 2012, with the MSCI Korea dropping sharply by 8.6% in USD terms. Foreign investors sold a net $5 trillion worth of Korean equities, though the Korean won depreciated only moderately against the USD. During the quarter, the Fund outperformed its benchmark by 42 basis points due to strong stock picks in consumer discretionary, while IT and materials detracted. Quality stocks outperformed in the volatile market conditions, with low debt, low volatility stocks performing well.
The Korea Fund underperformed its benchmark, the MSCI Korea Index, in the fourth quarter of 2012 by 39 basis points. Within sectors, stock picks in consumer discretionary hurt performance while selections in industrials and an underweight in financials helped. Growth stocks strongly outperformed value stocks last quarter, contrasting the third quarter. The Fund initiated positions in selected IT and consumer names and exited a credit card company due to regulatory changes.
The document discusses estimates of the additional resources needed for developing countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. It estimates that achieving the MDGs would cost $121 billion annually for 59 low-income countries. This cost estimate was generated using both a "top-down" approach based on economic growth projections and a "bottom-up" estimate of direct transfers needed. Closing the financing gap will require mobilizing domestic resources through tax increases as well as contributions from official development assistance, foreign direct investment, remittances and other private flows. Achieving the MDGs will require not just financing but also policy reforms to improve areas like public spending, institutions and business conditions.
Mark Rajkowski, CFO of Credit Suisse, presented at the 2012 Global Paper & Packaging Conference. He outlined Credit Suisse's business model, which focuses on commercial excellence, innovation, and emerging markets to drive revenue growth of over 5% annually. This growth, combined with margin expansion through operational leverage and productivity, is expected to produce earnings growth of 7-10% and top quartile total shareholder returns.
Avant garde wealth mgmt quarterly letter - 1212Gaurav Jalan
The document discusses the relationship between interest rates, equity markets, and corporate earnings/profits in India based on empirical evidence from 1998-2012. Three key points:
1) There is no meaningful correlation between interest rates and P/E ratios in India, and historically interest rates have been loosely positively correlated with P/E ratios.
2) There is no relationship between changes in interest rates and subsequent corporate earnings growth.
3) No correlation exists between changes in bond yields and future equity index returns.
NAM’s Chief Economist, Dr. Chad Moutray, and his renowned ability to break-down complex data into straightforward, usable nuggets of information goes through the latest numbers for you. His in-depth insight will provides a comprehensive look at manufacturing industry trends and the current state of the manufacturing economy in America.
The document discusses the external economic drivers that will influence Florida's economy from 2011-2012, noting that the national and global economies will see below potential growth during this period. Key factors that will impact Florida include slow household balance sheet repair, constrained government spending, and monetary policies aimed at supporting the recovery. Overall the outlook is for a slow but continuing economic recovery in Florida through 2012, with risks including federal spending cuts, inflation, and weakness in local economies dependent on population growth.
The Indian hotels industry is expected to finish the 2011-12 fiscal year weakly due to low consumer confidence and muted pricing power eroding margins. While some recovery was seen in late 2010-11, the industry still lacks pricing power to drive out of stagnation. Globally weak economic conditions and high costs have led to one of the weakest nine month periods for the industry in over five years. With continued uncertainty, wavering confidence and a sluggish economy, significant improvement is not expected for the next 2-3 quarters. Most major hotel brands remain committed to expanding in India over the long term due to significant growth opportunities, despite current challenges.
This exclusive Fiscal Cliff presentation is brought to you by Bloomberg Brief Economics. For more information please see last slide or visit www.bloombergbriefs.com
The document discusses the impact of socioeconomic changes on health and healthcare systems. It notes that total health expenditures in Thailand have been rising but remain stable at around 4% of GDP. The poor previously spent a larger percentage of their income on healthcare than the rich, but this gap has narrowed. Upcoming changes like an aging population and the ASEAN Economic Community will present challenges and opportunities for Thailand's health system and services sector. Cross-cultural factors, emerging technologies, and lifestyle choices will also impact population health.
Pakistan's economy faces challenges from recent floods and inflation. Growth was only 2.4% in FY2011 due to energy shortages and security issues. The services sector contributed most to growth while manufacturing declined. Investment has fallen significantly as a percentage of GDP in recent years. The fiscal deficit widened to 6.3% of GDP in FY2010 due to higher spending and weaker revenues. Inflation averaged 14.1% in FY2011 while the current account deficit improved due to higher exports and remittances. Foreign direct investment continues to decline.
The document provides an economic forecast for 2013. It finds that:
1) The global economy is recovering but growth will be slow, especially in Europe, due to the eurozone crisis and moderating growth in Asia.
2) The US economy is building momentum slowly, with moderate domestic growth expected in 2013 despite a slow global environment.
3) The forecast predicts GDP growth of 1.8% for the US in 2013, picking up to 2.4% in 2014, but global and European growth will remain limited by structural issues.
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2010BoyarMiller
This document summarizes a presentation on the current state of the capital markets given on September 10, 2010. It discusses 2010 market performance data for various asset classes. It then covers topics like the end of the recession, unemployment, credit availability, the housing market, government stimulus, and earnings estimates. The presentation outlines risks in 2010 like the withdrawal of stimulus, China slowing, and debt issues. It recommends investment strategies focused on capital preservation and diversification. Charts on interest rates, government and consumer debt, and corporate cash levels are also included. The next sections will cover private equity, debt markets, mergers and acquisitions, and conclusions.
North Carolina's economy and tax revenues have been declining in recent decades. While the state was once a top performer in job and income growth, it now lags behind national averages. The tax base has narrowed as consumption patterns have changed, yet tax rates have increased to compensate. This unstable structure leaves the state vulnerable to budget shortfalls during recessions. To promote long-term economic growth and fiscal stability, tax reform is needed to develop a simpler, more competitive system that broadens the base and ensures a steady revenue stream.
The Korea Fund saw a 9.86% rally in the third quarter of 2012, driven by actions from the ECB and Fed to support the Eurozone and US economies. The fund underperformed its benchmark by 245 basis points due to stock picks in consumer discretionary, industrials, and quality/value styles outperforming growth and large caps. Materials and healthcare stock picks contributed most to performance while consumer discretionary and industrials detracted. The Korean won appreciated against the dollar and may continue strengthening.
This document contains slides from Motorola's Q2 2003 earnings release conference call. It discusses Motorola's financial results for Q2 2003, including a 10% decline in sales compared to Q2 2002, largely due to competitive pressure and excess inventory in China. It also summarizes trends in gross margin, SG&A expenses, workforce reductions, R&D spending, and operating margin, showing declines in some areas but continued cost reductions and tight expense control. The slides provide an overview of Motorola's financial performance and key metrics in Q2 2003 relative to prior periods.
The RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% and lowered the reverse repo and MSF rates as well. It revised India's GDP growth forecast down to 5.5% for FY2013 due to weak external demand and investment. Headline inflation is projected at 6.8%. Treasury bond yields were volatile after the announcement while equity markets closed lower. The RBI aims to support growth while managing inflation expectations in an uncertain global environment.
The document discusses the state of the US economy and the role of monetary policy. It provides an analysis of key economic indicators and headwinds facing recovery. GDP growth in 2012 was supported by consumption, investment and government spending. Housing prices and production are improving but wages remain low. The document evaluates current monetary policy tools and makes recommendations, suggesting policy should remain accommodative given unemployment and deflation risks outweigh inflation concerns. It recommends the Federal Reserve continue its current policy path.
The document discusses NGDP targeting and its effects. It argues that NGDP targeting:
1) Only induces inflation and does nothing for real economic growth.
2) Diminishes the savings of older, poor, and middle-class savers by stealing value through inflation.
3) Data from several countries between 1950-1990 shows no correlation between money growth and real GDP growth, indicating that expanding the money base does not lead to real economic growth.
The article discusses the growing pains facing bitcoin as it transitions from a novelty to a mainstream currency and payment system. While startups are forming around uses like brokerages and bitcoin storage, consumers remain unconvinced of using bitcoin to buy goods and services. Regulators are also proving challenging, imposing new rules around capital gains taxes and how banks can handle bitcoins. The future of bitcoin is uncertain, as it works to match the rhetoric around its potential with real-world adoption, but some see opportunities in uses like international payments and micropayments in emerging markets.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
This document provides a summary of new restaurant openings and top restaurants from July 2014 to February 2015. It begins with the top 5 restaurants in London, New York, Hong Kong, and Paris from July 2014. It then discusses various new restaurants that have opened and provides recommendations for becoming a regular customer at certain restaurants to receive preferential treatment. The document also reviews Chef Bobby Flay's new restaurant Gato in New York and Heston Blumenthal's new airport cafe at Heathrow Terminal 2.
The document summarizes recommendations from a report by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) commission on reforms to U.S. bankruptcy law. The ABI commission studied issues that were not contemplated in the 1978 Bankruptcy Code and proposed several changes. These include: slightly slowing the increasing speed of bankruptcy sales, restricting the use of "milestones" that require a sale within 60 days; trimming back the protections of "safe harbors" for securities transactions; and giving more protections to unions and trademark license holders in business sales.
London Dine & Wine- A Bloomberg Brief Special Supplement Bloomberg Briefs
Discover the capital's secrets in Bloomberg Brief's special supplement London Dine & Wine. Inside you will find London's 10 most important restaurants for visitors, sommelier tips for picking a good wine, and much more.
To learn more about the Bloomberg Brief Newsletters and Supplements please visit:
http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/
Welcome to the latest edition of Bloomberg Brief: Real Estate focused on the main trends in the residential and commercial markets. In this issue, former FDIC Chief William M. Isaac explains how the latest recovery differs from prior cycles and why the home price rebound has been muted. Fannie Mae’s Tom Seidenstein and Steve Deggendorf outline their expectations for credit standards in residential housing finance, and Bloomberg economist Josh Wright explains why MBS spreads won’t widen much as the Fed reins in purchases and housing agencies trim portfolios.
Then there are what Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, refers to as the “Boomerang Borrowers.” These former homeowners who lost houses through a foreclosure or short sale and want to return as owners are finding that credit is harder to get. This in turn could have an impact on demand for new and existing homes. As Meyer points out, nearly 17 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in 2006 fell into either foreclosure or short sale.
On the residential and commercial real estate finance side, the picture continues to improve. Financing costs for office and retail property borrowers have dropped thanks to lower AAA- and BBB-rated CMBS spreads. Some of the narrowing in CMBS spreads is tied to demand from investors looking for extra yield at a time when U.S. Treasury 10-year debt yields 2.36 percent and the 30-year yields just over 3 percent.
The yield hunt may also explain lower CMBS issuance. According to Jefferies’ Lisa Pendergast, a greater number of investors financed commercial property purchases and retained the loans on their own balance sheets rather than sold them. This forced participants to cut expectations for 2014 CMBS issuance. The appetite to put money to work in commercial real estate finance shows up in other ways, notably heightened use of interest-only and partial IO loans. Just over half of the mortgages resold into CMBS so far this year allowed borrowers to pay just interest, or had partial-IO characteristics.
To receive future Bloomberg Brief Real Estate Supplements please visit- http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/real-estate/
An old-media kind of guy, I still keep file folders of stories, blog entries, clippings, messages and reports printed out and more or less sorted. Back in early 2009, I started a file labeled “Hysteria’’to hold the physical evidence of what I thought the most unusual and even outlandish claims being leveled against an asset class I have spent 33 years writing about —municipal bonds. - Joe Mysak, Bloomberg Brief Editor
- Detroit won a commitment from Barclays for $275 million in financing to fund its exit from bankruptcy, if a judge approves its debt-cutting plans.
- The money from Barclays would pay off previous borrowing, creditors, and help revitalize the city.
- Detroit filed for bankruptcy unable to provide services and meet financial obligations due to decades of economic and population decline. It has since cut deals to reduce its $18 billion in liabilities.
This special supplement includes insight from leading economists and market observers about the future of home sales, what higher rates mean for affordability and what regulatory changes at the U.S. housing agencies will do to long-term fixed rate mortgages. Inside you will also find unique data on commercial mortgage issuance, CMBS loan leverage, mortgage delinquencies and commercial property cap rates, as well as insight into real estate development in Manhattan.
Reporting requirements for over-the-counter derivatives trades go into effect on Feb. 12 under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation. As companies prepare, they also look ahead to mandatory clearing and the reporting of valuation and collateral, which are set to begin in the third quarter.
The European Union's new derivatives reporting rules under EMIR go into effect on February 12, 2014. These rules require firms to report over-the-counter derivatives transactions to trade repositories. While preparations are underway, some businesses warn they may not have all systems in place by the deadline. The rules bring more regulation to the $693 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market and aim to increase transparency after the 2008 financial crisis.
Bloomberg Brief - Mergers Year End Supplement 2013Bloomberg Briefs
The document provides an overview and analysis of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2013. Some key points:
- Total global M&A deal value was up only slightly in 2013 compared to 2012, with a single mega-deal between Verizon and Vodafone accounting for over 5% of the total value.
- The energy sector accounted for a smaller portion of deals compared to recent years, while communications deals made up a larger share, driven by telecom mergers.
- North America remained the dominant region for deals, accounting for over 40% of global activity. However, some of the largest deals involved European companies.
- Private equity firms were involved in two of
Please find attached our complimentary copy of our Oil Buyer's Guide 2013 Review. This is just a sample of incredible content our subscribers receive each day. Visit bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our complimentary year end review from Bloomberg Brief Private Equity. This is just a sample of the incredible data available to our subscribers. Visit Bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our annual review with our compliments. This is a sample of the high quality content our subscribers receive each week. Take your free trial at bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief produces high quality financial newsletters. Attached is our year end / outlook for Economics with our compliments. Our newsletters are subscription only but you can take a trial via our website bloombergbriefs.com
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxPragencyuk
Discover the essential tools and strategies for modern PR business success. Learn how to craft compelling news releases, leverage press release sites and news wires, stay updated with PR news, and integrate effective PR practices to enhance your brand's visibility and credibility. Elevate your PR efforts with our comprehensive guide.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
1. Image page
U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Bloomberg BRIEF: Economics
Joseph Brusuelas
July 2012
2. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Image page Summary
Executive
• Growth is tracking at 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2012
and will struggle to reach that level in the third quarter.
• Sub-trend growth (2.5 percent) likely to continue through
mid-2013.
• The U.S. economy is downshifting amid broadening global
deceleration.
• Job growth near 100,000 per month with slight risk of higher
unemployment rate through end of the third quarter.
• Risks to the outlook:
• External Sector: Euro zone, Middle East tensions.
• Public policy: 2012 impact from 2013 „fiscal cliff.‟
• Political Economy: U.S. Presidential election.
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3. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Image page
Cyclical Growth Scenarios
• Core Scenario: Below Trend (2.5%) Growth
• Modest consumption
• Household deleveraging and fiscal drag continue to weigh
• Elevated unemployment persists
• Low inflation
• Alternative: The Long Malaise
• Housing overhang persists
• Liquidity trap ensnares economy
• Policy Mistake: Premature fiscal & monetary tightening
• Deflation
• Low Probability: Cyclical Outperformance
• Policy directed at housing
• Acceleration in hiring quickly brings down unemployment
• Corporate sector deploys cash
• Inflation risk
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 3
5. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Output Gap Still Considerable
20
Shadow=Forecast Real GDP Real Potential GDP
19
18
17
16
15
Trillions
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: Bloomberg
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5
6. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Mind The Gap
Growth and Jobs
400.0 5.0
Q2'12 GDP Tracking at 1.5%
200.0
3.0
Quarterly Average (Percentage)
Quarterly Average (Thousands)
0.0
1.0
-200.0
-1.0
-400.0
-3.0
-600.0
-5.0
-800.0
Real GDP Y/Y (RHS) Total Change in Employment (LHS)
-1000.0 -7.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg R2=.77
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6
7. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Image page Overview
U.S. Rates
• Bloomberg consensus forecast indicates higher 10- and 30-year rates.
• Fed Operation Twist to Continue at $44 billion per month pace.
• Current Rates:
• 2-Year: .22%
• 10-year: 1.48%
• 30-year: 2.56%
• Third Quarter Consensus Survey Rate Forecast
• 2-Year: .30%
• 10-year: 1.75%
• 30-year: 2.83%
• Risk to that forecast:
• Slowing U.S. economy
• Euro zone debt
• U.S. fiscal cliff
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7
8. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Fixed Income Markets Pricing in Slow Growth
U.S. Nominal GDP Growth and Five Year Bond Yields
10
8
6
Nominal GDP Growth
Projections
4
2
0 Five-Year
Yield
Expectations
-2
-4
Nominal GDP Growth 5-Year Yield
-6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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8
9. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Projected Path of Long and Short Term Rates
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
Percent
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
US 10-Year (LHS) 3-Month, 2-Year Forward (RHS)
0.00
Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg
USGG10YR INDEX, G0025 2Y3M BLC2CURNCY<GO>
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9
10. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
FX Overview
Image page
• Dollar appreciation versus euro- and-trade weighted basket of
currencies eases:
• Near-term test of $1.18 euro
• Likely to move toward $1.15 by end of the third quarter
• Euro zone recession supports modest USD appreciation
• Risks to the outlook:
• Fiscal concerns at year end
• Weak labor market outlook
• Economic slowdown stimulates Fed action
• Global U.S. dollar strength: Dollar safe haven bid:
• Global economic slowdown
• Intensification of euro zone sovereign debt crisis
• Global central banks drive policy rates lower
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10
11. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
U.S. Dollar Appreciation Peaking?
600 1.18
1.23
500
1.28
400
1.33
Basis Points
EUR/USD
300
1.38
200
1.43
100 1.48
Italian-German 10-Year Spread (LHS) EUR/USD (RHS, Inverted) 1.53
0
2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
EUR CURNCY, GDBR10, GBTPGR10 INDEX<GO>
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11
12. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
U.S. Dollar Appreciation Peaking?
U.S. Trade Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index
98
96
94
92
90
Index
88
86
84
82
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg USTRBROA INDEX<GO>
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13. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
External Outlook and Overview
• Euro Area
• Intensification of sovereign debt crisis as recession continues
• Bloomberg consensus survey
• -0.7% Growth in third quarter
• Unemployment Rate to 11.2%
• ECB likely to ease policy rate to .50% in third quarter
• China
• Growth decelerating
• Further downward adjustment in residential investment
• State owned enterprises drive investment
• Fiscal and monetary stimulus likely
• Emerging Markets
• Growth eases to 3% from 3.2% previously
• Rising unemployment
• Policy rates likely to ease on central banks action
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13
14. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Safe Haven Move Due to EU Crisis
8
German 10-Year Yield US 10-Year Yield Spanish 10-Year Yield Italian 10-Year Yield
7
6
Percentage
5
4
3
2
1
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
GDBR10, USGG10YR, GSPG10YR, GBTPGR10 INDEX<GO>
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14
15. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Germany Not Immune to Crisis
US and Germans Equity Markets
8000 1450
DAX (LHS) S&P 500 (RHS)
1400
7500
1350
7000 1300
1250
Index
Index
6500
1200
6000 1150
1100
5500
1050
5000 1000
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg SPX INDEX, DAX INDEX<GO>
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15
16. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Banks at Center of the Storm
Rising Stress: Bank 5-Year Credit Default Swaps
800
BBVA
700
BNP Paribas
600 Banco Santander
Credit Agricole
500
Intesa Sanpaolo
Basis Points
400 Soc Gen
UniCredit
300
200
100
0
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg SOVR INDEX<GO>
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16
17. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Image page
U.S. Manufacturing Outlook and Overview
• Manufacturing growth slows.
• Fixed business investment and capital expenditures spending
likely to increase by 5 percent in the third quarter
• Auto production slows, remains solid
• U.S. ISM suffers “Europe Effect” in June.
• Likely rebound in third quarter
• Global production decelerating
• European recession
• Weak U.S. aggregate demand
• China‟s macroeconomic adjustment
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17
18. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Slower, More Sustainable Manufacturing Growth
Industrial Production and Growth
6.0 10.0
5.0
Y/Y Percentage Change (Quarterly Average)
4.0 5.0
3.0
Y/Y Percentage Change
2.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
-5.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0 -10.0
-4.0
GDP CYOY Industrial Production
-5.0 -15.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg
IP YOY, GDP CYOY INDEX<GO> R2=.7
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18
19. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Slower, More Sustainable Manufacturing Growth
ISM Manufacturing Survey and Growh
65.0 6.0
60.0 4.0
GDP Y/Y Percentage Change
Index (Quarterly Average)
55.0 2.0
50.0 0.0
45.0 -2.0
40.0 -4.0
ISM Manufacturing Survey GDP Y/Y
35.0 -6.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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19
20. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Global Manufacturing Slows
65 60%
60
40%
Y/Y Percentage Change (Index)
55
20%
50
Index
0%
45
-20%
40
-40%
35
MSCI World Index (RHS) US ISM (LHS)
China PMI (LHS) Euro Zone PMI (LHS)
30 -60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
MXWO, NAPMPMI, CPMINDX, PMITMEZ, JPMIGLOB
INDEX<GO>
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20
21. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Financial Conditions Overview
• European sovereign debt crisis is offsetting the mild thaw in
domestic credit conditions.
• The pace of credit creation is on an upswing.
• Both demand and supply of credit is improving.
• This has not resulted in an increase in monetary velocity.
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21
22. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Indices
1
0
-1
-2
Index
-3
-4
-5
US Financial Conditions Index EU Financial Conditions Index
-6
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg BFCIUS, BFCIEU INDEX<GO>
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22
23. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Credit Markets Healing
Private Credit Creation & Nominal Growth
20%
Nominal GDP Total Credit Creation Private Financial Instiutions
15%
Year Over Year Percentage Change
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
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23
24. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Credit Markets Healing
Commercial and Industrial Loan Demand Rising
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
Net % of Domestic Respondents Reporting Strong Demand for C&I Loans:
Large/Medium Size Firms
-100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg FRLSSDLM<GO>, FRLSSDS INDEX<GO>
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24
25. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Credit Markets Healing
Credit Standards Easing
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Net % Domestic Respondents Reporting Tightening Standards for C&I Loans: Large & Medium Size
Firms
-60
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg FRLSCILM INDEX<GO>, FRLSCIS INDEX<GO>
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25
26. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Labor Markets and Consumer Outlook and Overview
• Private payroll growth barely sufficient to stabilize
unemployment rate.
• Pace of firings on the rise.
• Tepid earnings and income indicate weak consumption path
to persist.
• Gasoline prices have stabilized, likely to provide no further
relief to consumer.
• Consumer expectations sour.
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26
27. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Labor Market
BLS Non-Farm Private Payrolls
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
3-Month Average Change in Private Employment
-900
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg NFP TCH INDEX<GO>
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27
28. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Labor Market Slack
Labor Market Slack
65 3
64 4
5
63
6
62
Percent
Percent
7
61
8
60
9
59 10
Employment to Population Ratio (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS)
58 11
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg USERTOT , USURTOT INDEX<GO>
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28
29. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Unemployment Rate by Occupation
24
Management & Professional
22
Services Occupations
20
Percent (Household Survey, NSA)
Sales & Office
18
Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance
16
Production and Transportation
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
May-11 May-12 May-11 May-12 May-11 May-12
Total Men Women
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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29
30. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
JOLTS Data Indicates Rising Separations
6.00
5.50
5.00
Millions
4.50
4.00
3.50
Hires Seperations
3.00
2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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30
31. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Jobs, Earnings and Income
7
6
5
4
3
Percentage Change (Y/Y)
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6 Average Hourly Earnings Real Personal Disposable Income
Private Payrolls
-7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg USHEYOY, NFP P, PIDSCWT%T INDEX<GO>
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31
32. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Consumer Expectations Deteriorating
10
0
-10
-20
Index(Monthly)
-30
-40
-50
-60
Expectations: Economy Better/Worse Diff
-70
CCI Incomes Over $50K
CCI Incomes $50K To $74.9K
-80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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32
33. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Housing Outlook and Overview
• Third quarter housing recovery?
• Recovery in starts driven by demand for multifamily dwellings.
• Prices still falling year-over-year.
• Some metro-areas experiencing price appreciation.
• Overall housing recovery still years away.
• Inventory
• Pricing
• Tight credit
• Attractive rates support sales albeit at historically low levels.
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33
34. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Housing Outlook
• Shadow inventory rising.
• Banks are likely to increase pace of foreclosures in the third
quarter.
• Housing drag persists.
• 25 percent of homeowners have negative equity.
• 5 percent near-negative equity.
• Falling prices, shadow inventory a drag on household
consumption.
• This drag is blocking the monetary transmission mechanism.
• Likely to need a policy response to target underwater
homeowners and the shadow inventory to move back toward
growth path.
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34
35. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Housing Starts Stabilize
2.5
Multi-Family Starts Single Family Starts
2
Millions (Annualized Pace)
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg NHSPS1, NHSPS5 INDEX<GO>
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35
36. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Shadow Inventory Growing
Shadow Inventory Looms Large
9
Shadow Inventory Existing Inventory
Shadow Inventory= Foreclosures and 90
8 Days Late
7
6
Millions
5
4
3
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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36
37. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Homeowners Submerged
13.7
Negative and Near Negative Equity
13.6
13.5
13.4
Units: Millions
13.3
13.2
13.1
13.0
12.9
12.8
Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q410 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11
Source: Core Logic, Bloomberg NEQSNATI + NNEQNATI INDEX<GO>
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37
38. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Central Bank Policy Outlook and Overview
• Fed balance sheet remains extremely accommodative.
• Shifting duration of assets out along curve.
• Fed likely to extended pledge to hold rates effectively at zero until 2015.
• Questionable efficacy of further asset purchases.
• September 2012 FOMC meeting likely will see decision made
whether or not to purchase assets this year.
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38
39. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound
FOMC Projections of Year-End Levels of the Fed Funds Rate
(Median Projections as of January and June 2012)
4.5%
4.25%
January Median FOMC Projection June Median FOMC Projection
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
Percent
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.50%
0.5%
0.25% 0.25%
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Source: Federal Reserve
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39
40. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound
Federal Reserve SOMA Maturity Distribution
$275
9/22/2011 (Wt Avg Years to Maturity 6.09)
$250
06/18/2012 (Wt Avg Years to Maturity 8.79)
$225
$200
$175
Billions
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2036 2038 2040
Source: Bloomberg Debt FED<GO>
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41. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound
Falling Wealth Effect from Fed Purchases
1450
End of QE1 End of QE2
1400
1350
1300
1250
S&P 500 Gains 80%
1200
1150
1100
Index
1050
1000 S&P 500 Gains 30% S&P 500 Gains 17%
950 During Operation
900 Twist
850
800
750
700 S&P 500
650
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg SPX<GO>
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42. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound
Taylor Rule Model Estimates of the Fed Funds Rate
8
Fed Funds Rate Hawks
Baseline Taylor Rule Estimate Doves
June Median FOMC Projection Baseline
6
Rudebusch Model
4
Percent
2
0
-2
-4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source: Bloomberg
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43. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Fiscal Drag
• Medium-term policy shift.
• Discretionary spending declining.
• Potential fiscal shock in first quarter of 2013.
• Expiration of Bush tax cuts, Obama Tax holiday, tax
increases to support Affordable Healthcare Act, and fiscal
sequestration begins. Equivalent to 4% of GDP.
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44. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Fiscal Policy and Financial Conditions Mix
Financial
Conditions
Easy Financial Tight Financial
Conditions Conditions
Expansionary
Fiscal Policy 2009-2010
Fiscal
Policy
Restrictive
Fiscal Policy
2011-2014
Source: Bloomberg
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45. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Fiscal Drag
Federal Government Spending
12.0
Actual Projected
11.0
10.0
9.0
Percentage of GDP
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Defense Nondefense Total
2.0
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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46. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Fiscal Cliff Impact
Estimated Impact
Tax Changes Spending Changes
Bush Tax Cuts -221 Automatic Sequestration -65
2% Cut in Payroll Tax -95 Expiration of Emergency Unemployment -26
Benefits
Partial Expensing of Investment -65 Scheduled Reduction in Medicare Payment -11
Rates
Tax Provisions: Affordable Health Care Act -18 Other Revenue Increases/Spending -105
Reductions
Impact of Tax Changes -400 Impact of Spending Changes -207
Gross Impact on Spending Changes -607
Less Secondary Effects on Economy 47
Net Impact on Fiscal Deficit -560
Potential Hit on GDP 4%
Source: CBO, Bloomberg
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47. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Government Transfers
Austerity Bites
25%
Government Transfers as Percentage of Total
24%
Income
23%
22%
21%
20%
Percentage
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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48. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Commodities Outlook and Overview
• Commodity prices reverse slide.
• Middle East tensions.
• Speculation on further central bank easing.
• Domestic gasoline prices hold, albeit at elevated levels.
• Wholesale futures point to stabilization.
• Likely no further relief to U.S. consumer.
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49. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Middle East Tensions, Speculation Driving Rally in Commodities
130
West Texas Intermediate (LHS)
Brent (LHS) 560
Jefferies Commodity Index (RHS)
120
540
110
Price Per Barrel ($)
520
Index
100
500
90
80 480
70 460
Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg
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50. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Gasoline Prices Stable For Now
$3.75 $4.20
Wholesale Gasoline Futures (LHS)
$3.50 $4.00
$3.25 $3.80
Price Per Gallon ($)
Price Per Gallon ($)
$3.00 $3.60
$2.75 $3.40
$2.50 $3.20
$2.25 $3.00
Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg
3AGSREG INDEX<GO> XB1 Commodity<GO>, CL1 Commodity<GO>
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51. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Alternative Economic Outlook: The Long Malaise
• Housing remains deadweight on consumer and economy.
• Monetary policy fails to deliver as fiscal gridlock prevails.
• Long-term adjustment in consumption continues parallel with
household deleveraging.
• Public sector still leveraging up, creating asymmetrical risks to
growth once deleveraging starts.
• Elevated risk of policy error due to premature fiscal or monetary
policy tightening.
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52. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
The Long Malaise: Housing as Ground Zero
US-Japan Housing Price Comparison
80
Tokyo: Residential (LHS, %)
70
Osaka: Residential (LHS,%)
60 Case Schiller 20 City (RHS,%)
50
Percentage Change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
T-6 T-5 T-4 T-3 T-2 T-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Years Priort to and Following Housing Bubbles
Source: Bloomberg
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53. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
The Long Malaise: Rate Comparison
Direction of Long Term Yields
4.5 9
US 10- Year Yield (LHS) Japan 10-Year Yield (RHS)
4 8
3.5 7
3 6
2.5 5
Yield (%)
Yield (%)
2 4
1.5 3
1 2
0.5 1
0 0
1 24 47 70 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 254
Months After Onset of Recession
Source: Bloomberg
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54. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Long Malaise: Longer-Term Consumer Adjustment
Real Spending Four Year Rolling Average
5.0
Inflation Adjusted Spending
4.5
4.0
Percentage Change (Y/Y)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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55. Bloomberg
Joseph Brusuelas,
Senior Economist
Bloomberg, LP
jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net
Joseph Brusuelas is an analyst who writes for the Bloomberg Economic Brief. The observations he makes
are his own. Bloomberg is a leading source of data, news, and analytics for financial and legal
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56. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
Image page Summary
Executive
• Rates: US 10-year yields likely to trade in range between 1.5%
and 1.75% percent. External shocks posing downside risk of
below 1.5% rate
• US Dollar: Downside risk on consensus forecast of $1.24 against
euro at end of Q3‟12. Given external risks a move to long term
purchasing power parity of EUR/USD of $1.18 cannot be
discounted.
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57. U.S. Q3’12 Economic Overview and Outlook
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