This exclusive Fiscal Cliff presentation is brought to you by Bloomberg Brief Economics. For more information please see last slide or visit www.bloombergbriefs.com
The Center welcomed Hon. David M. Walker, Founder and CEO of Comeback America Initiative and Former Comptroller General of the United States, for a Pre-NH Primary Discussion: "America at a Crossroads: The Fiscal Challenges and a Way Forward". The event was held on Monday, January 9th in Filene Auditorium, Dartmouth College.
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportJoshua Moews
This document provides an economic update and market commentary for February 2016. It includes key economic statistics for the US, benchmark interest rates and yields, municipal bond market news, and commentary on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates. Inflation indicators rose in January while unemployment fell slightly. Benchmark interest rates declined over the month.
The document provides a summary of key economic indicators in the second quarter of 2010:
- GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter, likely to be revised lower, with stronger growth in goods than services.
- Private sector investment increased sharply, especially in equipment and software, suggesting businesses are more confident.
- Government spending contributed significantly to growth in the second quarter, but those gains are not likely sustainable.
- Overall the economy is growing but at a slowing pace, and continued stimulus will be needed to boost job growth.
This document provides a preview of key expectations for the upcoming Indian budget. It outlines several sectors and stocks that are expected to benefit, including oil and gas stocks which may see the biggest positive impact from government policies. Specific stock picks highlighted for tactical gains over the next 8-10 months are J***D*** and H**M**, which are expected to benefit from upcoming elections and an economic recovery.
The document forecasts mortgage rates for 2011-2012. It predicts that while an improved economic outlook is putting upward pressure on rates, geopolitical risks threaten recent optimism. Assuming no major disruption from rising oil prices, mortgage rates are expected to gradually increase over the year, with 1-year fixed rates reaching 4.35% and 5-year fixed rates reaching 5.90% by the end of 2011. The forecast also notes that mortgage spreads have returned to normal levels, so future rates will largely depend on changes to government bond yields.
- JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $2.1 billion for Q1 2009, driven by record revenue in the investment bank but higher credit costs.
- The investment bank had its best quarter ever with net income of $1.6 billion on record revenue of $8.3 billion from strong fixed income and equity trading. However, markdowns on leveraged loans totaled $711 million.
- Retail banking profits grew 58% to $863 million due to higher deposits and fees from the Washington Mutual acquisition, while consumer lending lost $389 million due to increased loan losses.
Weekly Economic Financial Commentary March 26, 2010Tom Cryer
Public policy dominated this week, with the passage of health-care reform and confirmation the social security system would run into deficit this year contributing to disappointing Treasury auctions and higher bond yields.
The document discusses several challenges facing the US economy that contradict the view that it can decouple from global economic trends. It argues that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies had less impact on interest rates than commonly believed, and that interest rates were destined to fall due to a global capital glut. It also argues that the US employment situation indicates long-term problems like declining labor force participation and increasing low-wage jobs. Additionally, it states that household debt remains high and deflation is a global issue impacting the US through factors like a strong dollar.
The Center welcomed Hon. David M. Walker, Founder and CEO of Comeback America Initiative and Former Comptroller General of the United States, for a Pre-NH Primary Discussion: "America at a Crossroads: The Fiscal Challenges and a Way Forward". The event was held on Monday, January 9th in Filene Auditorium, Dartmouth College.
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportJoshua Moews
This document provides an economic update and market commentary for February 2016. It includes key economic statistics for the US, benchmark interest rates and yields, municipal bond market news, and commentary on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates. Inflation indicators rose in January while unemployment fell slightly. Benchmark interest rates declined over the month.
The document provides a summary of key economic indicators in the second quarter of 2010:
- GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter, likely to be revised lower, with stronger growth in goods than services.
- Private sector investment increased sharply, especially in equipment and software, suggesting businesses are more confident.
- Government spending contributed significantly to growth in the second quarter, but those gains are not likely sustainable.
- Overall the economy is growing but at a slowing pace, and continued stimulus will be needed to boost job growth.
This document provides a preview of key expectations for the upcoming Indian budget. It outlines several sectors and stocks that are expected to benefit, including oil and gas stocks which may see the biggest positive impact from government policies. Specific stock picks highlighted for tactical gains over the next 8-10 months are J***D*** and H**M**, which are expected to benefit from upcoming elections and an economic recovery.
The document forecasts mortgage rates for 2011-2012. It predicts that while an improved economic outlook is putting upward pressure on rates, geopolitical risks threaten recent optimism. Assuming no major disruption from rising oil prices, mortgage rates are expected to gradually increase over the year, with 1-year fixed rates reaching 4.35% and 5-year fixed rates reaching 5.90% by the end of 2011. The forecast also notes that mortgage spreads have returned to normal levels, so future rates will largely depend on changes to government bond yields.
- JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $2.1 billion for Q1 2009, driven by record revenue in the investment bank but higher credit costs.
- The investment bank had its best quarter ever with net income of $1.6 billion on record revenue of $8.3 billion from strong fixed income and equity trading. However, markdowns on leveraged loans totaled $711 million.
- Retail banking profits grew 58% to $863 million due to higher deposits and fees from the Washington Mutual acquisition, while consumer lending lost $389 million due to increased loan losses.
Weekly Economic Financial Commentary March 26, 2010Tom Cryer
Public policy dominated this week, with the passage of health-care reform and confirmation the social security system would run into deficit this year contributing to disappointing Treasury auctions and higher bond yields.
The document discusses several challenges facing the US economy that contradict the view that it can decouple from global economic trends. It argues that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies had less impact on interest rates than commonly believed, and that interest rates were destined to fall due to a global capital glut. It also argues that the US employment situation indicates long-term problems like declining labor force participation and increasing low-wage jobs. Additionally, it states that household debt remains high and deflation is a global issue impacting the US through factors like a strong dollar.
This document provides information from Fannie Mae's 2008 Q3 10-Q Credit Supplement. It includes tables and analysis on Fannie Mae's single-family mortgage credit book of business, including details by key product features, state, vintage, and delinquency rates. It also provides forecasts for future home price declines in 2008 and from peak to trough, expected to be in the upper end of estimated ranges of 7-9% and 15-19%, respectively.
Pennsylvania faces significant fiscal challenges that threaten to further weaken its credit quality if not addressed, including a large unfunded pension liability and structural budget imbalance. Its economic growth and tax revenues have lagged other states, and proposed solutions like a shale gas tax would not cure its problems. Pennsylvania's credit ratings were downgraded in 2014 due to these structural issues, and its credit quality is expected to continue deteriorating without policy changes that address its pension costs and spending levels.
- Missouri is facing major budget issues as state revenues have declined significantly due to the economic downturn. Federal stabilization funds have helped but will run out, leaving a large shortfall.
- State revenues are down 10% in the first quarter of FY2010 and are projected to decline further. Unemployment will remain high.
- Governor Nixon has already implemented $200M in budget cuts for FY2010 but further cuts will likely be needed. The stabilization funds have masked the true budget problems.
- When the federal funds expire after FY2011, Missouri faces a major fiscal crisis without new revenue sources or job growth to boost the economy.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams
It looks like the market is moderating after the frenzy of last year. The sales price to list price ratio for homes, which is a good indicator of demand, while still over 100%, has gone from being over 110% for most of last year to under 110% for most of this year.
This document summarizes a monthly economic report on the fiscal cliff and its potential impact on the US economy. It finds that allowing all current tax increases and spending cuts to take effect could plunge the US back into recession due to the abrupt change in fiscal policy. However, failing to address the large budget deficit also poses long-term risks to economic growth. The report recommends a gradualist approach that gradually reduces the deficit to a sustainable level over several years to minimize near-term economic risks.
Latvia's annual inflation rate reached 5% in May 2011 and is expected to peak above 5% in the coming months before declining towards the end of the year. Rising food, housing, and transportation prices have been the main drivers of inflation, exacerbating problems for poorer households that spend a large portion of their incomes on necessities. While demand remains weak, policy action is needed to curb inflation and stimulate job creation in order to improve living standards.
This document summarizes key points from an economic analysis:
1) Negative economic growth is expected in the US due to declining productivity, elevated inventory levels, and falling real wages.
2) Productivity fell in the first half of 2011, leading to rising unit labor costs and the potential for future layoffs.
3) Inventory levels rose substantially since 2009 but are now at elevated, undesired levels, setting the stage for production slowdowns.
4) Real wages have fallen over the past year, reducing consumer income and spending which will drag on GDP growth.
5) Recent increases in the money supply likely reflect a shift to low-yield assets rather than new economic activity.
Annie Williams Market Trends July-Aug 2014Jon Weaver
- Housing prices in San Francisco reached new all-time highs in June, with the median home price rising 25% year-over-year to $1,200,000. Condo prices also rose significantly.
- Despite rising prices, home sales fell 24.7% from the previous June due to low inventory and high prices. Condo sales rose slightly.
- Mortgage rates are expected to remain low in the near future but rise gradually later in the year as the Federal Reserve continues to taper its bond purchasing program. This real estate market remains very challenging for buyers.
The household debt service ratio (DSR) measures the percentage of disposable personal income that goes toward paying household debt including mortgages and consumer debt. A higher DSR means consumers have more debt burden and are likely to cut back on spending, potentially leading to economic downturn. Data from the Federal Reserve shows the US DSR rose sharply during the 2007-2008 financial crisis but has since stabilized around 9-10%, indicating consumer financial stability. Graphs comparing consumer spending, GDP growth, and government budgets in the US and UK suggest consumer spending levels correlate with overall economic and fiscal conditions.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in the municipal bond market. It notes that while credit quality is currently high, negative factors have caused a decline in recent years. Specifically:
- The outlook for U.S. state governments remains stable, though some indicators are mixed and more downgrades are expected for a few states. Tax revenues have fallen for two straight quarters.
- Both positive and negative rating actions occurred among states recently. However, structural issues continue to negatively impact states like New Jersey, Illinois, and Pennsylvania.
- The outlook for local governments remains cautious as downgrades continue to outpace upgrades, with over 50% of recent downgrades due to structural budget imbalances.
The document discusses federal spending and the upcoming debates around raising the debt ceiling and passing a fiscal year 2012 budget. It notes that while both political parties agree deficit reduction is needed, they disagree on the extent and nature of spending cuts versus tax increases. The document summarizes two major budget proposals - the House GOP plan from Paul Ryan focusing on large spending cuts, and President Obama's plan relying more on a mix of cuts and tax hikes. It expects the final fiscal year 2012 budget will include substantial outlay reductions but the composition remains unclear.
This newsletter from Cedar Point Financial Services provides information on upcoming interest rate hikes and how they could impact various financial products. It discusses how adjustable rate mortgages, credit cards, and variable rate student loans may be affected if interest rates rise. The newsletter recommends ways for readers to protect themselves, such as refinancing a mortgage, paying down credit card debt, and reviewing student loan terms. It also provides two articles on estate tax reform possibilities and the connection between health and personal finances.
The expanded version of our PowerPoint presentation that clearly lays out the fiscal challenge facing the United States. For more, visit http://crfb.org/go-big.
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
Prices Reach All-Time Highs, Again - Real Estate Report July/AugustAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report July/August, local market trends San Francisco: "Prices Reach All-Time Highs, Again" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
1) The Canadian economic growth forecast for 2011 has been modestly increased to 2.6% due to an improved U.S. economic outlook and expectations that the Bank of Canada interest rate will remain low for longer.
2) Near-term consumer spending growth is expected to be bolstered by sustained low interest rates, though high household indebtedness means spending growth will moderate to a more sustainable pace once rates begin to rise again.
3) Residential investment is expected to be a soft spot for the Canadian economy as housing demand remains soft and inventory remains elevated, dampening construction activity over 2011.
This document provides information about the national debt of the United States from an organization called "Fix the Debt". It discusses that the current national debt is over $13 trillion and is projected to continue rising without action. It outlines some of the main causes of the debt as well as the effects, including higher costs of living and reduced ability to respond to future crises. It argues that reforms are needed to entitlement programs, taxes, and spending to put the debt on a sustainable long-term path.
El documento describe una solución llamada Niif Virtual que ayuda a las empresas a convertir sus estados financieros a las Normas Internacionales de Información Financiera (NIIF) de manera guiada y a través de una interfaz en Excel. La solución incluye videos tutoriales, plantillas, material de formación y capacitaciones virtuales. El costo de la solución es de $2,800,000 COP más IVA y puede pagarse a través de consignación bancaria o en las oficinas de la Cámara de Comercio de Cali.
El documento describe las exportaciones de Bolivia. Históricamente, la economía de Bolivia ha dependido de la extracción y exportación de recursos naturales como minerales y gas natural. Aunque se han hecho esfuerzos para diversificar las exportaciones y promover otros sectores como la soya, las exportaciones siguen concentradas en pocos productos primarios. El documento también resume las principales leyes y normas jurídicas bolivianas relacionadas con el comercio exterior, incluidos los regímenes de exportación e importación.
Este documento describe la rehabilitación visual y las terapias visuales. Explica que la rehabilitación visual es un proceso de reeducación de la visión a través del aprendizaje para mejorar la función visual. Detalla los tipos de disfunciones visuales que pueden tratarse con terapias visuales, como problemas de movimientos oculares, visión binocular, acomodación, ambliopía y problemas de percepción relacionados con el aprendizaje. También explica cómo se evalúa la función visual a través de exámenes psicométricos
This document provides information from Fannie Mae's 2008 Q3 10-Q Credit Supplement. It includes tables and analysis on Fannie Mae's single-family mortgage credit book of business, including details by key product features, state, vintage, and delinquency rates. It also provides forecasts for future home price declines in 2008 and from peak to trough, expected to be in the upper end of estimated ranges of 7-9% and 15-19%, respectively.
Pennsylvania faces significant fiscal challenges that threaten to further weaken its credit quality if not addressed, including a large unfunded pension liability and structural budget imbalance. Its economic growth and tax revenues have lagged other states, and proposed solutions like a shale gas tax would not cure its problems. Pennsylvania's credit ratings were downgraded in 2014 due to these structural issues, and its credit quality is expected to continue deteriorating without policy changes that address its pension costs and spending levels.
- Missouri is facing major budget issues as state revenues have declined significantly due to the economic downturn. Federal stabilization funds have helped but will run out, leaving a large shortfall.
- State revenues are down 10% in the first quarter of FY2010 and are projected to decline further. Unemployment will remain high.
- Governor Nixon has already implemented $200M in budget cuts for FY2010 but further cuts will likely be needed. The stabilization funds have masked the true budget problems.
- When the federal funds expire after FY2011, Missouri faces a major fiscal crisis without new revenue sources or job growth to boost the economy.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams
It looks like the market is moderating after the frenzy of last year. The sales price to list price ratio for homes, which is a good indicator of demand, while still over 100%, has gone from being over 110% for most of last year to under 110% for most of this year.
This document summarizes a monthly economic report on the fiscal cliff and its potential impact on the US economy. It finds that allowing all current tax increases and spending cuts to take effect could plunge the US back into recession due to the abrupt change in fiscal policy. However, failing to address the large budget deficit also poses long-term risks to economic growth. The report recommends a gradualist approach that gradually reduces the deficit to a sustainable level over several years to minimize near-term economic risks.
Latvia's annual inflation rate reached 5% in May 2011 and is expected to peak above 5% in the coming months before declining towards the end of the year. Rising food, housing, and transportation prices have been the main drivers of inflation, exacerbating problems for poorer households that spend a large portion of their incomes on necessities. While demand remains weak, policy action is needed to curb inflation and stimulate job creation in order to improve living standards.
This document summarizes key points from an economic analysis:
1) Negative economic growth is expected in the US due to declining productivity, elevated inventory levels, and falling real wages.
2) Productivity fell in the first half of 2011, leading to rising unit labor costs and the potential for future layoffs.
3) Inventory levels rose substantially since 2009 but are now at elevated, undesired levels, setting the stage for production slowdowns.
4) Real wages have fallen over the past year, reducing consumer income and spending which will drag on GDP growth.
5) Recent increases in the money supply likely reflect a shift to low-yield assets rather than new economic activity.
Annie Williams Market Trends July-Aug 2014Jon Weaver
- Housing prices in San Francisco reached new all-time highs in June, with the median home price rising 25% year-over-year to $1,200,000. Condo prices also rose significantly.
- Despite rising prices, home sales fell 24.7% from the previous June due to low inventory and high prices. Condo sales rose slightly.
- Mortgage rates are expected to remain low in the near future but rise gradually later in the year as the Federal Reserve continues to taper its bond purchasing program. This real estate market remains very challenging for buyers.
The household debt service ratio (DSR) measures the percentage of disposable personal income that goes toward paying household debt including mortgages and consumer debt. A higher DSR means consumers have more debt burden and are likely to cut back on spending, potentially leading to economic downturn. Data from the Federal Reserve shows the US DSR rose sharply during the 2007-2008 financial crisis but has since stabilized around 9-10%, indicating consumer financial stability. Graphs comparing consumer spending, GDP growth, and government budgets in the US and UK suggest consumer spending levels correlate with overall economic and fiscal conditions.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in the municipal bond market. It notes that while credit quality is currently high, negative factors have caused a decline in recent years. Specifically:
- The outlook for U.S. state governments remains stable, though some indicators are mixed and more downgrades are expected for a few states. Tax revenues have fallen for two straight quarters.
- Both positive and negative rating actions occurred among states recently. However, structural issues continue to negatively impact states like New Jersey, Illinois, and Pennsylvania.
- The outlook for local governments remains cautious as downgrades continue to outpace upgrades, with over 50% of recent downgrades due to structural budget imbalances.
The document discusses federal spending and the upcoming debates around raising the debt ceiling and passing a fiscal year 2012 budget. It notes that while both political parties agree deficit reduction is needed, they disagree on the extent and nature of spending cuts versus tax increases. The document summarizes two major budget proposals - the House GOP plan from Paul Ryan focusing on large spending cuts, and President Obama's plan relying more on a mix of cuts and tax hikes. It expects the final fiscal year 2012 budget will include substantial outlay reductions but the composition remains unclear.
This newsletter from Cedar Point Financial Services provides information on upcoming interest rate hikes and how they could impact various financial products. It discusses how adjustable rate mortgages, credit cards, and variable rate student loans may be affected if interest rates rise. The newsletter recommends ways for readers to protect themselves, such as refinancing a mortgage, paying down credit card debt, and reviewing student loan terms. It also provides two articles on estate tax reform possibilities and the connection between health and personal finances.
The expanded version of our PowerPoint presentation that clearly lays out the fiscal challenge facing the United States. For more, visit http://crfb.org/go-big.
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
Prices Reach All-Time Highs, Again - Real Estate Report July/AugustAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report July/August, local market trends San Francisco: "Prices Reach All-Time Highs, Again" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
1) The Canadian economic growth forecast for 2011 has been modestly increased to 2.6% due to an improved U.S. economic outlook and expectations that the Bank of Canada interest rate will remain low for longer.
2) Near-term consumer spending growth is expected to be bolstered by sustained low interest rates, though high household indebtedness means spending growth will moderate to a more sustainable pace once rates begin to rise again.
3) Residential investment is expected to be a soft spot for the Canadian economy as housing demand remains soft and inventory remains elevated, dampening construction activity over 2011.
This document provides information about the national debt of the United States from an organization called "Fix the Debt". It discusses that the current national debt is over $13 trillion and is projected to continue rising without action. It outlines some of the main causes of the debt as well as the effects, including higher costs of living and reduced ability to respond to future crises. It argues that reforms are needed to entitlement programs, taxes, and spending to put the debt on a sustainable long-term path.
El documento describe una solución llamada Niif Virtual que ayuda a las empresas a convertir sus estados financieros a las Normas Internacionales de Información Financiera (NIIF) de manera guiada y a través de una interfaz en Excel. La solución incluye videos tutoriales, plantillas, material de formación y capacitaciones virtuales. El costo de la solución es de $2,800,000 COP más IVA y puede pagarse a través de consignación bancaria o en las oficinas de la Cámara de Comercio de Cali.
El documento describe las exportaciones de Bolivia. Históricamente, la economía de Bolivia ha dependido de la extracción y exportación de recursos naturales como minerales y gas natural. Aunque se han hecho esfuerzos para diversificar las exportaciones y promover otros sectores como la soya, las exportaciones siguen concentradas en pocos productos primarios. El documento también resume las principales leyes y normas jurídicas bolivianas relacionadas con el comercio exterior, incluidos los regímenes de exportación e importación.
Este documento describe la rehabilitación visual y las terapias visuales. Explica que la rehabilitación visual es un proceso de reeducación de la visión a través del aprendizaje para mejorar la función visual. Detalla los tipos de disfunciones visuales que pueden tratarse con terapias visuales, como problemas de movimientos oculares, visión binocular, acomodación, ambliopía y problemas de percepción relacionados con el aprendizaje. También explica cómo se evalúa la función visual a través de exámenes psicométricos
Este documento resume el concepto de ortoptica, que se encarga de la rehabilitación visual y el tratamiento de alteraciones de la visión binocular. Explica algunas causas comunes como estrabismo y disminución de la fuerza muscular para visión cercana. También describe los tratamientos ortópticos disponibles para mejorar las habilidades visuales como la convergencia y rehabilitar problemas como insuficiencia de convergencia.
Tratamiento ortóptico de las heteroforiascristina_cs
Este documento presenta información sobre el tratamiento ortóptico de las heteroforias. Explica que las heteroforias son desviaciones oculares latentes que se manifiestan al romper la visión binocular. Describe los exámenes necesarios para evaluar las heteroforias y determinar el tipo presente. Luego, detalla los diferentes enfoques de tratamiento, incluyendo vencer la supresión, fortalecer la convergencia muscular mediante ejercicios progresivos, y el uso de prismas y estereogramas.
- US economic growth is expected to remain sub-trend at around 1.2-2.2% in Q3 2012 due to ongoing household deleveraging and fiscal drag. Unemployment is expected to remain elevated.
- Risks include a slowdown in the Eurozone and potential policy mistakes around fiscal tightening.
- Global manufacturing is slowing due to weak demand in Europe, the US, and a growth moderation in China.
The document discusses the external economic drivers that will influence Florida's economy from 2011-2012, noting that the national and global economies will see below potential growth during this period. Key factors that will impact Florida include slow household balance sheet repair, constrained government spending, and monetary policies aimed at supporting the recovery. Overall the outlook is for a slow but continuing economic recovery in Florida through 2012, with risks including federal spending cuts, inflation, and weakness in local economies dependent on population growth.
In 3 sentences:
BGC Partners reported their financial results for 4Q2012 compared to 4Q2011. Total revenue was $1.1 billion, down 1% from the previous year. Revenue from rates, credit, and equities declined due to lower industry volumes and quantitative easing, though foreign exchange revenue grew due to strong performance in electronic trading. Overall pre-tax earnings were $35.1 million in financial services and $12.6 million in real estate.
North Carolina's economy and tax revenues have been declining in recent decades. While the state was once a top performer in job and income growth, it now lags behind national averages. The tax base has narrowed as consumption patterns have changed, yet tax rates have increased to compensate. This unstable structure leaves the state vulnerable to budget shortfalls during recessions. To promote long-term economic growth and fiscal stability, tax reform is needed to develop a simpler, more competitive system that broadens the base and ensures a steady revenue stream.
20120413 financial crisisresponse - official document statistics about the cr...Aline Miller
The document provides an overview of the government's response to the 2008 financial crisis through programs like TARP, actions by the Federal Reserve and FDIC, and reforms implemented. It discusses:
1) How the response prevented a collapse of the financial system and helped restart economic growth, though the economy still faces challenges from the crisis.
2) Initial projections of high costs for the response that have not come to pass, and estimates that taxpayers may actually realize a gain from financial stability programs.
3) How specific programs and actions supported small businesses, the auto industry, financial markets, consumers, retirement funds, and the housing market during the crisis.
The document provides an overview of the government's response to the 2008 financial crisis through programs like TARP, actions by the Federal Reserve and FDIC, and reforms implemented. It discusses:
1) How the response prevented a collapse of the financial system and helped restart economic growth, though the economy still faces challenges from the crisis.
2) Initial projections of high costs for the response that have not come to pass, and estimates that taxpayers may actually realize a gain from financial stability programs.
3) How specific programs and actions supported small businesses, the auto industry, financial markets, consumers, retirement funds, and the housing market during the crisis.
This week, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released its latest cost estimates for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which was only one part of the government’s broader effort to combat the financial crisis. These charts provide a more comprehensive update on the impact of the combined actions of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Government intervention hurts investors. As the government focuses on slowing credit growth, it is making it tougher for certain types of investors and borrowers to qualify for financing. Changes to insured mortgage rules have lowered amortization periods, reduced refinancing limits, and tightened debt servicing ratios. Regulators have also imposed new rules that reduce HELOC amounts and require reasonable income verification for stated income borrowers. These changes are restricting the money supply and access to credit for rental portfolios, self-employed individuals, and higher-ratio mortgages.
- The document is an economic outlook report from Wells Fargo for 2010 that discusses challenges and opportunities facing the US and global economies in the coming year.
- It states that while the recession may be over, 2010 will still be difficult with risks remaining. The economy has been thrown off course and is still unstable.
- The report identifies three main problems: 1) how to stabilize the economy with policy tools, 2) determining the new economic course and growth pace, and 3) how goals of growth, inflation, jobs, and the dollar have changed.
- The outlook predicts subpar 2.2% growth in 2010 with contributions from rising consumer spending, business investment, housing, and federal spending but high
This document provides an economic outlook for 2010 from Wells Fargo Economics Group. It discusses three main problems facing the economic recovery: 1) how to stabilize the economy using policy tools, 2) determining the pace and composition of economic growth, and 3) how goals for growth, inflation, employment, and the dollar have changed. While the recession may be over, growth in 2010 will be subpar and uneven. Risks include high unemployment, weakness in housing and consumer spending, and the sustainability of the recovery without government support. Policymakers must determine how long expansionary policies can continue given rising public debt and dependence on foreign capital.
Horizon Lines reported financial results for the first quarter of 2009. Revenue declined 11% to $272 million due to lower fuel surcharges and volume. Adjusted EBITDA was $19 million, down 29% year-over-year. The economic recession continued to impact all trade lanes, especially Hawaii and Puerto Rico, though rate increases partially offset declining volume. Liquidity remained strong at $97 million and the company remained in compliance with debt covenants. Looking ahead, management expects a protracted recession but believes Horizon Lines is well positioned in domestic trades.
Kansas is facing budget challenges as the state population growth has slowed, private sector jobs were lost while public sector grew, total state debt is over $15 billion, and spending is exceeding revenues. The largest portions of the state budget are spent on K-12 education at 52.4% and human services at 23.6%. Key factors increasing spending are rising human services caseloads, pension payments, special education costs, and corrections costs. The legislature will need to address the budget gap through the veto session in April or a potential special session.
Puerto rico's fiscal and economic turnaroundgobiernoprfaa
Governor Fortuño outlines Puerto Rico's fiscal and economic turnaround from 2009-2011. Key accomplishments include reducing the deficit by 81% through spending cuts, improving the credit rating, reforming the tax code, reducing unemployment, and increasing home and tourism sales. Economic indicators now point to positive growth, including a 28,000 job increase in 2011. The tax reform is generating increased government revenues despite lower tax collections, showing early success.
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation for 2013, noting that global GDP growth is expected to be similar to 2012 while central banks continue quantitative easing.
2) Quantitative easing is expected to be positive for equities, real estate, and commodities while keeping government bond yields low.
3) In the US, growth is forecast at around 2% as the private sector offsets government contraction, while the Fed continues bond purchases.
4) The Eurozone is expected to see modest recovery in 2013 led by Germany and France, while southern Europe continues to contract amid austerity and high financing costs.
FINCOR Outlook 2013 Welcome To The QE PlanetJoão Pinto
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation recommendations for 2013.
2) Key themes are continued central bank quantitative easing in major economies and a modest global economic recovery.
3) Within this environment, the recommendations favor equities, real estate, commodities, and high yield bonds over government bonds.
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal ReportErin Fogg
The document discusses federal budget problems including a large national debt and budget deficit. It shows that mandatory spending on programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security make up the majority of the budget, while discretionary domestic spending has declined significantly as a share of total costs. Proposed budget cuts primarily target non-defense discretionary programs that support many Native American programs, which are already underfunded compared to overall per capita spending. The failure of a bipartisan committee to agree on further deficit reduction triggers across-the-board sequestration cuts that disproportionately impact domestic programs like the BIA and IHS that serve Native communities.
1) Independent Bank Corporation held a 1st quarter 2009 earnings conference call to discuss financial results and challenges.
2) Key highlights included a net loss of $18.6 million due to a $30.8 million loan loss provision and credit costs, but pre-tax core earnings grew sequentially.
3) Challenges included a weak Michigan economy, high credit costs, and a $43.7 million deferred tax asset valuation allowance, but the net interest margin expanded and regulatory capital ratios remained strong.
The article discusses the growing pains facing bitcoin as it transitions from a novelty to a mainstream currency and payment system. While startups are forming around uses like brokerages and bitcoin storage, consumers remain unconvinced of using bitcoin to buy goods and services. Regulators are also proving challenging, imposing new rules around capital gains taxes and how banks can handle bitcoins. The future of bitcoin is uncertain, as it works to match the rhetoric around its potential with real-world adoption, but some see opportunities in uses like international payments and micropayments in emerging markets.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
This document provides a summary of new restaurant openings and top restaurants from July 2014 to February 2015. It begins with the top 5 restaurants in London, New York, Hong Kong, and Paris from July 2014. It then discusses various new restaurants that have opened and provides recommendations for becoming a regular customer at certain restaurants to receive preferential treatment. The document also reviews Chef Bobby Flay's new restaurant Gato in New York and Heston Blumenthal's new airport cafe at Heathrow Terminal 2.
The document summarizes recommendations from a report by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) commission on reforms to U.S. bankruptcy law. The ABI commission studied issues that were not contemplated in the 1978 Bankruptcy Code and proposed several changes. These include: slightly slowing the increasing speed of bankruptcy sales, restricting the use of "milestones" that require a sale within 60 days; trimming back the protections of "safe harbors" for securities transactions; and giving more protections to unions and trademark license holders in business sales.
London Dine & Wine- A Bloomberg Brief Special Supplement Bloomberg Briefs
Discover the capital's secrets in Bloomberg Brief's special supplement London Dine & Wine. Inside you will find London's 10 most important restaurants for visitors, sommelier tips for picking a good wine, and much more.
To learn more about the Bloomberg Brief Newsletters and Supplements please visit:
http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/
Welcome to the latest edition of Bloomberg Brief: Real Estate focused on the main trends in the residential and commercial markets. In this issue, former FDIC Chief William M. Isaac explains how the latest recovery differs from prior cycles and why the home price rebound has been muted. Fannie Mae’s Tom Seidenstein and Steve Deggendorf outline their expectations for credit standards in residential housing finance, and Bloomberg economist Josh Wright explains why MBS spreads won’t widen much as the Fed reins in purchases and housing agencies trim portfolios.
Then there are what Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, refers to as the “Boomerang Borrowers.” These former homeowners who lost houses through a foreclosure or short sale and want to return as owners are finding that credit is harder to get. This in turn could have an impact on demand for new and existing homes. As Meyer points out, nearly 17 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in 2006 fell into either foreclosure or short sale.
On the residential and commercial real estate finance side, the picture continues to improve. Financing costs for office and retail property borrowers have dropped thanks to lower AAA- and BBB-rated CMBS spreads. Some of the narrowing in CMBS spreads is tied to demand from investors looking for extra yield at a time when U.S. Treasury 10-year debt yields 2.36 percent and the 30-year yields just over 3 percent.
The yield hunt may also explain lower CMBS issuance. According to Jefferies’ Lisa Pendergast, a greater number of investors financed commercial property purchases and retained the loans on their own balance sheets rather than sold them. This forced participants to cut expectations for 2014 CMBS issuance. The appetite to put money to work in commercial real estate finance shows up in other ways, notably heightened use of interest-only and partial IO loans. Just over half of the mortgages resold into CMBS so far this year allowed borrowers to pay just interest, or had partial-IO characteristics.
To receive future Bloomberg Brief Real Estate Supplements please visit- http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/real-estate/
An old-media kind of guy, I still keep file folders of stories, blog entries, clippings, messages and reports printed out and more or less sorted. Back in early 2009, I started a file labeled “Hysteria’’to hold the physical evidence of what I thought the most unusual and even outlandish claims being leveled against an asset class I have spent 33 years writing about —municipal bonds. - Joe Mysak, Bloomberg Brief Editor
- Detroit won a commitment from Barclays for $275 million in financing to fund its exit from bankruptcy, if a judge approves its debt-cutting plans.
- The money from Barclays would pay off previous borrowing, creditors, and help revitalize the city.
- Detroit filed for bankruptcy unable to provide services and meet financial obligations due to decades of economic and population decline. It has since cut deals to reduce its $18 billion in liabilities.
This special supplement includes insight from leading economists and market observers about the future of home sales, what higher rates mean for affordability and what regulatory changes at the U.S. housing agencies will do to long-term fixed rate mortgages. Inside you will also find unique data on commercial mortgage issuance, CMBS loan leverage, mortgage delinquencies and commercial property cap rates, as well as insight into real estate development in Manhattan.
Reporting requirements for over-the-counter derivatives trades go into effect on Feb. 12 under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation. As companies prepare, they also look ahead to mandatory clearing and the reporting of valuation and collateral, which are set to begin in the third quarter.
The European Union's new derivatives reporting rules under EMIR go into effect on February 12, 2014. These rules require firms to report over-the-counter derivatives transactions to trade repositories. While preparations are underway, some businesses warn they may not have all systems in place by the deadline. The rules bring more regulation to the $693 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market and aim to increase transparency after the 2008 financial crisis.
Bloomberg Brief - Mergers Year End Supplement 2013Bloomberg Briefs
The document provides an overview and analysis of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2013. Some key points:
- Total global M&A deal value was up only slightly in 2013 compared to 2012, with a single mega-deal between Verizon and Vodafone accounting for over 5% of the total value.
- The energy sector accounted for a smaller portion of deals compared to recent years, while communications deals made up a larger share, driven by telecom mergers.
- North America remained the dominant region for deals, accounting for over 40% of global activity. However, some of the largest deals involved European companies.
- Private equity firms were involved in two of
Please find attached our complimentary copy of our Oil Buyer's Guide 2013 Review. This is just a sample of incredible content our subscribers receive each day. Visit bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our complimentary year end review from Bloomberg Brief Private Equity. This is just a sample of the incredible data available to our subscribers. Visit Bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our annual review with our compliments. This is a sample of the high quality content our subscribers receive each week. Take your free trial at bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief produces high quality financial newsletters. Attached is our year end / outlook for Economics with our compliments. Our newsletters are subscription only but you can take a trial via our website bloombergbriefs.com
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
1. Image page
U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Bloomberg BRIEF: Economics
Joseph Brusuelas
December 2012
2. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Executive Summary
• Expiring tax and expenditure policies if not addressed with likely trigger
a US recession in early 2013.
• Policymakers have not moved significantly toward resolving
differences over fiscal policy, setting stage for fiscal shock in early
2013
• Due to liquidity constraint in economy end of tax holiday or tax cuts
likely to have greater impact than generally acknowledged
• Federal Reserve will likely resume treasury purchases in advance
of economy hitting cliff at December 2012 meeting.
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 2
3. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Executive Summary
• Negative growth rates of -3.1 percent in 2013 in contrast to the
Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 2 percent rate of growth.
• Personal Consumption
• End of Bush tax cuts reduces household expenditures by $200
billion or roughly 1.3 percent of GDP.
• End of Obama tax holiday reduces personal spending by $95
billion, subtracting 0.6 percent from overall output.
• Assuming multiplier of 0.75%
• Larger multiplier results in greater hit on consumption and
growth
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 3
4. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Estimated Effects of Fiscal Tightening
Potential Increase in 2013 U.S. Real GDP by Eliminating Mandated Spending Cuts and
Extending Tax Provisions
3.5%
2.9%
Percentage Point Change in Baseline GDP
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5% 1.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
0.0%
Defense Spending Cuts Non-Defense Spending Bush-Era Tax Breaks Payroll Tax Holiday Total Potential Increase
Cuts in GDP
Source: CBO Mid-Point Projections, November 2012, Bloomberg
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 4
5. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Estimated Effects of Fiscal Tightening
Comparison of Potential Increase in 2013 U.S. Real GDP by Extending Tax Provisions
3.5%
3.0%
Percentage Point Change in Baseline GDP
Little Difference in GDP Growth by Not Extending Tax Breaks to Upper
Income Households
2.5%
2.0%
1.5% 1.4%
1.3%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.0%
Extend Payroll Tax Holiday Extend Tax Breaks for Incomes <$250,000 Extend Most Bush-Era Tax Breaks
Source: CBO Mid-Point Projections, November 2012, Bloomberg
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 5
6. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Image page
Executive Summary
• Unemployment likely to reach 9 percent by mid 2013
• Sequestration to hit public sector and defense related jobs hardest
• Private sector already pushing back hiring and reducing
investment.
• If economy hits cliff, private firms will be aggressive in shedding
jobs in Q1’13.
• Debt Ceiling
• December 15
• US Treasury announced it will take technical steps to extend point
at which the Federal Government exhausts funds until late
February or early March.
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 6
7. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Repeat of 2011 Debt Ceiling Debate Looming
U.S. Debt Quickly Approaching Ceiling
$18 $0.0
$16
-$0.4
$14
-$0.8
$12
Room Remaining, tln (rs)
$10
U.S. Public Debt Subject to Limit, tln (ls) -$1.2
U.S. Statutory Debt Limit, tln (ls)
$8
-$1.6
$6
$4 -$2.0
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Source: Bloomberg
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 7
8. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Fiscal Multiplier
• Understanding Multipliers
• A multiplier of zero means that an exogenous change in income will have no effect
on GDP growth.
• A multiplier of one indicates that a change in income will result in a one-for-one
change in GDP.
• A multiplier greater than one means that GDP will change by more than the
exogenous change in income.
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 8
11. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Fiscal Multipliers
• The estimation of the impact of fiscal multipliers among economists remains an intensely
debated topic.
• Under current economic conditions estimation of multipliers suggest serious risk of
weaker pace of consumption, negative growth and rising unemployment.
• Consumer Behavior
• Save lump sum tax rebates
• Spend income related to Bush cuts and Obama tax holiday
• Lower income groups take much larger hit
• Liquidity constraints suggest likely larger multiplier effects
• Impaired credit system
• 13 million mortgages with negative equity or near negative equity
• Consumers rapidly drawing down savings
• Sluggish wage growth and falling earnings
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 11
12. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Consumers Not Well Prepared for Decline in After Tax Income
U.S. Household Savings Has Declined along with Wages
14 10
9
12
8
Avg. Hourly Earnings (yoy %) (smo.)
10 7
Savings Rate (%) (smo.)
6
8
5
6
4
4 3
2
2
U.S. Savings Rate (%) Average Hourly Earnings (yoy %) 1
0 0
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bloomberg
PIDSDPS, USHEYOY INDEX <GO>
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 12
13. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Consumers Not Well Prepared for Decline in After Tax Income
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Remains Below Average
Year-over-Year Percent Change in Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
25
20
15
Total HH Credit (yoy %)
10
5
0
-5
-10
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Source: Bloomberg CCOSYOY INDEX <GO>
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 13
14. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Economic Efficiencies
Efficiency of Eliminating Mandated Spending Cuts and Extending Tax Provisions
(Relative to Budgetary Costs in 2013)
1.4
1.2
1.2
Dollar of GDP per Budgetary Costs
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
Defense Spending Cuts Non-Defense Spending Bush-Era Tax Breaks Payroll Tax Holiday Total Potential Increase
Cuts in GDP
Source: CBO Mid-Point Projections, November 2012, Bloomberg
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 14
16. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Percentage Point Change in the Real GDP Growth Rate (from the Baseline
Estimates) Under Elimination of Bush-Era Tax Cuts
Lower Income Multiplier
Upper Income
Multiplier 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75
0.00 0.0% -0.3% -0.6% -0.8% -1.1% -1.4% -1.7% -2.0%
0.25 -0.1% -0.3% -0.6% -0.9% -1.2% -1.5% -1.8% -2.0%
0.50 -0.1% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% -1.5% -1.8% -2.1%
0.75 -0.2% -0.5% -0.8% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -1.9% -2.2%
1.00 -0.3% -0.5% -0.8% -1.1% -1.4% -1.7% -2.0% -2.2%
1.25 -0.3% -0.6% -0.9% -1.2% -1.5% -1.7% -2.0% -2.3%
1.50 -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -1.2% -1.5% -1.8% -2.1% -2.4%
1.75 -0.5% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -1.9% -2.2% -2.4%
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> call 212-617-7664
16
17. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Economic Efficiencies
Comparison of Potential Increase in 2013 U.S. Real GDP by Extending Tax Provisions
1.4
Extending Tax Breaks to Upper Income Households Is Least
Efficient in Generating GDP Growth
1.2
Percentage Point Change in Baseline GDP
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
Extend Payroll Tax Holiday Extend Tax Breaks for Incomes <$250,000 Extend Most Bush-Era Tax Breaks
Source: CBO Mid-Point Projections, November 2012, Bloomberg
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664 17
18. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
BGOV: Automatic Sequestration
• Office of Management and Budget will instruct federal government agencies to cut
$103.9 billion from budgets.
• $54.7 billion from non-defense discretionary and entitlement programs including
Medicare
• Total non-defense discretionary spending cut by 8.2 percent.
• $54.7 billion from the Pentagon and other defense related programs.
• Defense outlays reduced by 9.4 percent.
• Agencies likely to delay cuts until late February or early March in hopes that an
agreement can be reached.
• If sequestration occurs roughly half the cuts will occur in 2014 extending fiscal drag over
next two years.
• If sequestration is implemented under current law it will continue through 2021 in the
form of budget caps.
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 18
21. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Image page
Deficit and Debt Dynamics
• Longer Term Policy Tradeoffs Demand Near Term Action
• US Federal debt to GDP ratio stands at 101 percent.
• Period of fiscal restraint necessary
• Periods with greater investment as a share of GDP are highly
correlated with faster growth and rising living standards
• One risk, among many, to the U.S. economy is that rising
entitlement spending will require the government to borrow a
finite amount of capital from private savers, squeezing out
private firms who need that capital to expand the businesses and
increase productivity.
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 21
22. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Deficit Dynamics
Fiscal Cliff and Long Run Implications for US Deficit
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
-200
-400
U.S. Deficit ($ Billions)
-600
-800
-1000 Increased debt service
Maintain Medicare Rates
-1200 Avoid Sequestration
Extend Other Tax Breaks
-1400
Extend Income Tax Breaks
Baseline Deficit
-1600
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 22
23. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Debt Dynamics
US Total Public Debt as Percentage of Nominal GDP
120
110
100
90
80
Percentage
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Source: Bloomberg
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 23
24. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Image page
Debt Dynamics
• Longer Term Policy Tradeoffs Demand Near Term Action
• U.S. federal spending on mandatory entitlements will likely
increase from $2 trillion in 2012, to $2.8 trillion in 2017.
• Spending on entitlements as a share of GDP increased from 4.9
percent in 1962 to an estimated 13.5 percent in 2012. In
contrast net fixed business investment will probably decline to
1.7 percent in 2012, down from 3 percent in 1962
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 24
25. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Entitlement Spending vs. Net Fixed Business Investment
16
Net Business Fixed Investment
Mandatory Entitlement Spending Actual Forecast
14
12
Spending as a Percentage of GDP
10
8
6
4
2
0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Source: Bloomberg, CBO
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 25
26. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Image page
Debt Dynamics
• Longer Term Policy Tradeoffs Demand Near Term Action
• Over time the spread between net fixed business investment and
mandatory outlays has widened.
• Continuing on this path will result in reduced productivity levels,
slower growth, higher unemployment and an overall lower
standard of living.
• Between 1967 and 2011 the difference between spending as a
percentage of GDP in net business fixed investment has
increased from 0.7 to 12 percent.
• During the five years prior the spread was 0.92
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 26
27. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
The Fiscal Path and U.S. Debt
Debt Dynamics a Risk to Fiscal Sustainability
1.6
Nominal GDP Growth Annual Growth in Federal Debt
1.4
1.2
1
Annual Growth (Trillions)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 7664 27
28. U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Debt Primer
Image page
Debt Dynamics
• Stabilizing Debt to GDP Ratio at 101 Percent
• Nominal GDP of 3.9 percent.
• Long term borrowing costs of 1.5 percent.
• US can run primary budget deficit of 3 percent.
• Stabilizing debt to GDP at current elevated levels.
• Debt and Deficit Dynamics
• Running $1.3 trillion dollar deficits while economy adds roughly
$600 billion on nominal basis is not sustainable.
Subscribe @ Brief <GO> 28
29. Bloomberg
Joseph Brusuelas,
Senior Economist
Bloomberg, LP
jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net
Joseph Brusuelas is an analyst who writes for the Bloomberg Economic Brief. The observations he makes
are his own. Bloomberg is a leading source of data, news, and analytics for financial and legal professionals,
corporations, media organizations and private individuals around the globe. The BLOOMBERG
PROFESSIONAL® service and Bloomberg’s media services provide real-time and historical pricing,
indicative data, reporting, research, estimates, analytics, portfolio management tools, electronic trading and
order management systems, multimedia events and electronic communications to Bloomberg clients in more
than 150 countries, 24 hours a day.
bloomberg.com
Frankfurt London San Francisco Singapore Tokyo
+49 69 9204 1210 +44 20 7330 7500 +1 415 912 2960 +65 6212 1000 +81 3 3201 8900
Hong Kong New York São Paulo Sydney
+852 2977 6000 +1 212 318 2000 +55 11 3048 4500 +61 2 9777 8600
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the "Services") are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. ("BFLP") and its
subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the "BLP Countries"). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg L.P. ("BLP"). BLP provides BFLP with all
global marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP subsidiary in the BLP Countries. The Services include electronic trading
and order-routing services, which are available only to sophisticated institutional investors and only where the necessary legal clearances have been obtained. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide
investment advice or guarantee the accuracy of prices or information in the Services. Nothing on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG,
BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG TELEVISION,
BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG PRESS and BLOOMBERG.COM are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries.