This document summarizes a project assessing the potential role of renewables in power supply in the Mekong region. It finds that renewables have significant technical potential, including over 90 GW from solar, wind, geothermal, small hydro and biomass. However, renewables face barriers to wider deployment. Hydropower currently plays a major role in centralized grid systems, while renewables are smaller-scale and connected to distribution networks. High renewable penetration will require technologies like gas or hydropower that can respond quickly to output variations. While not direct substitutes, hydropower and renewables could complement each other, with hydropower helping to integrate variable renewables. Realizing their synergies would require changes to institutional

1. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN
MEKONG POWER SUPPLY
(MK14)
CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013
Putting hydropower and
renewables in context
John Sawdon

2. Contents



Part 1: Overview of the project
Part 2: Hydropower and renewables –
substitutes or complements?
Part 3: Introduction of sessions 12 and 14

3. Overview of the project

4. Project objectives

Assess the potential role of
renewables in the regional power
generation mix

Enhance the evidence base on
renewable energy potential

Identify barriers to renewable
energy having a more substantial
contribution to power supply

5. Scope

Project sought to build on existing work in the
region
Numerous studies of renewables policy, deployment
and potential
 More recent strategic environmental assessment of
the power sector in the GMS


Project focused upon where it was able to addvalue
Country power sector contexts extremely varied (RE
and HP capacity, available resources etc.) – facing
different challenges
 Combination of review of international
experience, secondary data collection from the region


6. Literature review of international experience
Renewable energy technology review
Barriers to renewable energy deployment
Case studies to „ground-truth‟ review
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Thailand
Viet Nam
Synthesis report and issues papers
Review of regional barriers to renewables
expansion and diffusion and
recommendations
Meeting energy needs: hydropower
compared with renewables

7. CCDE
Regional reviews and papers
Vietnam case study on
meeting peak demand with
solar PV
Cambodia study on rice
husk gasification
Project
partners
Thailand study on
current policy framework
for RE and lessons for
other countries
Lao PDR study on small
hydropower

8. Hydropower and renewables –
substitutes or compliments?
Technology choice in the power sector

9. Electricity demand

The regional context of rapid economic growth
and structural change is driving growing
electricity demand

Sector plans over-estimate demand and
underestimate potential demand-side
measures (EE, DSM)

10. Putting regional power
consumption growth in the global
context
Malaysia
1971 - 2011
4,500
14,000
USA
1960 - 2011
4,000
12,000
China
1971 - 2011
3,500
Korea
1971 - 2011
10,000
Thailand
1971 - 2011
kWh/capita
kWh/capita
3,000
2,500
2,000
Japan
1960 - 2011
8,000
6,000
Germany
1970 - 2011
1,500
Vietnam
1984 - 2011
4,000
1,000
2,000
500
Cambodia
1995 - 2011
0
0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)
Source: based on data from IEA 2013, World Bank 2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)

11. Technology choices in the
PDPs
180
160
RE: Increase from 3.5 GW to 16.5 GW
140
Hydro: Increase from18.2 GW to 36 GW
Increase in number of plants from 69 to 16
GW
120
100
80
Could this additional 17.8 GW of hydropower
capacity be met through alternative renewab
technologies?
60
40
20
0
2012
2025
Nuclear
Coal/ lignite
Gas
Large hydro
Renewables
Cogen/others
Source: ADB TA 7764 REG

12. Renewables potential in the
LMB
Technology
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Small hydro
Biomass / biogas
Total
Additional planned HP
Addtional
technical LMB
potential (MW)
7,600
73,230
391
6,991
1,602
90,115
17,750
Source: Based upon ADB TA 7764 REG data
Load factor
(%)
Generation
(GWh)
25
18
16,644
115,469
90
50
60
3,083
30,621
8,420
174,236
50
87,203

13. Different technologies different
roles

Modern power systems based
upon a centralized grid structure

Large scale generation (inc.
large hydro power) supplies
transmission grid and large
industrial users

Renewables offers a different
kind of service:




Smaller scale
Connected to lower voltage
network
Producer-consumers with very
small generation units (e.g. roof
top solar)
Potential niche for RE for off-grid
consumers

Not a significant source of
demand

14. Comparing hydropower and
renewables
Hydropower (>30 MW)







Large scale
Supply to
transmission grid
Base load and
peaking
Can have significant
storage
Relatively cheap
Well understood
Provides ancillary
Renewables






Small scale modular
Supply to low voltage
distribution network
Not dispatchable (“must
run”) (solar/wind)
Seasonal and daily
variability
Currently expensive
Not well
understood, implication
s for wide scale
deployment still being
worked out

15. Comparing generation
technologies
Technology
Typical characteristics
Capital costs
(USD/kW)
Typical energy
costs (USc/kWh)
Large hydro
Capacity: 30 – 18,000 +
MW
Load factor: 30 – 60%
Projects >300 MW:
<2,000
Projects 30 - 300 MW:
2,000 –4,000
2–12
Small hydro
Capacity: <30 MW
Load factor: 20 – 60%
1,175–3,500
5 - 40
Turbine size: 1.5–3.5 MW
Load factor: 25–40%
1,750–1,770
925–1,470 (China and
India)
4–16
Solar PV**
Peak capacity: 2.5–250 MW
Load factor: 10–25%
1,300–1,950
9 - 40
Geothermal
Plant size: 1–100 MW
Load factor: 60–90%
Wind*
Biomass/biogas
Plant size: 1–200 MW
Load factor: 50 – 90%
* On-shore; **Ground mounted utility scale
2,100 – 6,100
800–4,500
6 - 14
5.5–20
Source: REN21, 2013

16. Compliments not substitutes?


Variability of renewables can pose problems for
electricity grids
Variability of wind output in April 2009 (California)
Source: http://integrating-renewables.org/

17. High penetration renewables will
require significantly different
systems


Many geographically dispersed
RE or RE technologies of
different types may smooth
intermittency
High penetration RE (>10 – 30%)
will likely require additional backup capacity which can respond
quickly to variations in
renewables output:



Gas
Hydropower
Using conventional technologies
to smooth intermittency will imply
different institutional
arrangements – may prove
difficult for hydropower
http://integrating-renewables.org/

18. Compliments not substitutes?

Hydropower‟s flexibility in power generation can
act to smooth the variability of supply from
renewables generation – significant challenges for
the management of HP projects

Higher penetration of RE technologies may be
possible because significant hydropower capacity
in the region

This is not to say that more hydropower is
necessarily needed to enable effective integration
of renewables into grid systems - but that
synergies are likely to exist

19. Key messages

No simple choice exists between alternative renewables
technologies and hydropower

Medium and large hydropower projects currently fulfill different roles
in electricity systems to that which can be played by renewables

There are significant potential synergies between renewables and
hydropower – although realizing them would imply a significant
amount of work ensuring the institutional framework is in place

This may change as the economics, institutions and technologies of
regional electricity systems change

But the outcomes of these changes are far from certain – there is
still a lot to be done

20. Enhancing the role of
renewables





1. Technological potential and dynamic cost
considerations (Tim Suljada, ICEM)
2. Thailand‟s experience of renewable energy
policy (Jiab Tongsopit, ERI)
3. The role of solar PV in Vietnam (Nguyen
Quoc Khanh, ICEM)
4. Bridging the gap in renewables deployment
(Alex Kenny, ICEM)
5. Impacts of small hydropower on fisheries
(Garry, Thorncroft, MK15)

21. Thank you
Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013
John Sawdon (john.sawdon@gmail.com)