The report analyzes the status and outlook of renewable energy (RE) in Latin America, projecting that renewable sources will contribute 2.5% to 5% of total installed electricity capacity by 2020. It identifies wind and biomass as the most promising technologies for growth, with Brazil and Argentina leading in potential expansion. The study highlights the importance of local policies and stakeholder engagement in fostering RE development across various countries.

1. +
Renewable Energy
for Electricity Generation in
Gilberto M Jannuzzi
Latin America: the market,
technologies and outlook

2. + 2
Report
“Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin
America: the market, technologies and outlook - 2010”
Team:
Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi University of Campinas – UNICAMP
and International Energy Initiative – IEI, Brazil
Odón de Buen Rodríguez Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. –
ENTE, S.C., Mexico
João Gorenstein Dedecca International Energy Initiative – IEI,
Brazil
Larissa Gonçalves Nogueira International Energy Initiative – IEI,
Brazil
Rodolfo Dourado Maia Gomes International Energy Initiative –
IEI, Brazil
Judith Navarro Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. – ENTE,
S.C., Mexico

3. 3

4. + 4
Objective and Characteristics of
the study
Objective: provide a picture of the current status and near
future development of renewable energy technologies in LA
countries
Markets up to 2020 (official projections), regulations,
stakeholders
Countries: Argentina, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Peru,
Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico
Sources/technologies: SHP (<20 MW), wind, biomass, solar PV,
geothermal
Information:
Survey the existing public available literature, official documents
and reports
Personal contacts

5. + 5
Structure of presentation
Current picture
Trends & Drivers
Policies & Regulation
Stakeholders
Most promissing technologies/countries
Conclusions

6. +
Current situation:
Renewable Electricity (RE)
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7. + 7
RE: good potential in LA
But today represents 2-5% of the existing capacity
Table 3: Estimated potential of alternative sources for electricity generation
Solar PV
Wind energy (MW) SHP (MW) Geothermal (MW) Biomass (MW)
(kWh/m2.year)
Argentina 1800 5000 425-480 150-2000 430
Brazil 1095-2372.5 >250000 25913 360-3000 265401
Chile 663.5-2555 6000-10,000 2600 3500-7000 1000
Peru 1900-2500; 1800 2500 1000 1000-2990 1782
Colombia 1800 21000 25000 552 47
Venezuela 1606-2445.5 45195 15000 910 340
Mexico 1640-2370 40000 32503 6500-8000 800
Central America 1725-2175 400 – 600 W/m2(4) 180003 24400-31500 635

8. + 8
Renewable electricity: installed
capacity (2009)
Note: Large Hydro plants not
included!

9. + 9
RE installed capacity: contribution
by country
0%
2%
5%
9% Central America
7%
2% 4% Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
71% Venezuela

10. + 10
Summary: RE in Latin America
The energy sources considered represent 2,5% to 5%
of total installed capacity in the examined countries.
Biomass represents 50% of the total energy generated
by RE.
All researched countries have plans to expand
production of electricity from alternative sources
considered.
Brazil and Peru have about 5% of its capacity attended
by RE, Argentina and Colombia have about 4%,
Mexico and Chile are 2.5%.

11. +
Drivers for expansion: RE in
Latin America
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12. + 12
Driving forces for RE expansion in
LA

13. + 13
Local Policies drivers
The analysis shows that in most countries the issues below have been
important factors to support the policies of RE :

14. +
Policies, Stakeholders,
Funding
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15. + 15
Policies, trends, stakeholders,
finance
Main countries : Brazil, Mexico ,Chile and Argentina
Other countries : Peru, Colombia (Andean Region)
Main Technologies : Wind and Biomass
Policies Trends Stakeholders Finance
• Several legal
• Biomass • Research • BID
iniciatives
• Wind Centers • BNDES
• Lack of
• Small Hydro • Government • GTZ
financial
Plants • Regulators • Government
incentives
• Manufactures
• Specific
• Project
mechanisms
Developers
technological
regulation

16. +
Policies & regulatoin
16

17. + 17
Policies and regulation: current
scenario
• All countries have some sort of policy to
promote RE
• Brazil has a development of laws, regulations
and incentives that favored, over time, specific
technologies such as biomass, and more
recently wind and solar PV.
• Chile has shown interest in putting incentives
and rules for the sources in a more general
way and this has been the trend of the other
analyzed countries.

18. + 18
Market/technology trends
• Wind energy is the most promising technology
by 2020, considering the plans of energy.
• Wind and biomass are the most important
technologies for the next 5-10 years.
• It is expected significant expansion of wind
energy in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, and
biomass in Brazil, Argentina, Central America,
Colombia and Peru.

19. + 19
Stakeholder analysis: current
situation
Project Developers,
Manufacturers,
Environmental Ministries / Agencies
Trade Associations,
Chambers of Commerce and Industry,
International Banks,
Multilateral Organizations and national agencies
Note: project developers are essential in consolidating the market for
these technologies, but in general there are sufficient critical mass.

20. + 20
Stakeholder analysis: matrix

21. +
Multicriteria analysis
Which are the best country+technology ?
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22. + 22
Criteria selection and analysis
There are three axes of evaluation or criteria used for this
analysis: market, regulation and actors.
Projected installed capacity (High and Low) a quantitative
criterion.
Regulation and stakeholders: qualitative and represent,
respectively, the degree of development and the importance
of the legal framework and existing players.

23. + Energy projection data
Table 71: Additional installed capacity per source and country (MW)
Central
Argentine Peru Colombia Venezuela Mexico
Brazil (2020)1 Chile (2020)3 America
(2020)2 (2020)4 (2020)5 (2013)6 (2020)7
(2015)8
Wind energy 6000 - 7800 200 – 8000 1000 – 6122 0 - 403 9 – 100 172 1724 115
SHP( <20 MW) 6966 1004 616 - 676 0 – 509 512 – 601 0 465 0
Biomass 8521 300 - 1000 380 – 1742 101 180 0 100 110
Geothermal energy 0 100 – 200 0 – 488 125 – 400 55 0 126 25.5
Solar photovoltaic 0 250 - 500 4 80 0 0 0 0
Ocean energy (waves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
and tides)
CSP 195 300 0 - 970 0 0 0 0 0

24. + 24
Results
Low market projections High market projections
Brazil-wind Brazil-wind
Brazil-biomass Argentina-wind
Brazil-SHP Brazil-biomass
Argentina-wind Brazil-SHP
Mexico-wind Chile-wind
Chile-SHP Mexico-wind and Argentina-
PV
These pairs represent the most promising markets for the future,
considering the information gathered using the official projections of
electricity (by 2020, and considering the lowest and highest
projection of demand for copper), the existing regulations and local
stakeholders

25. +
Conclusions
OPORTUNITIES
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26. + 26
Conclusions
Speed: the expansion of RE in the countries analyzed is moving fast.
Technology: The greatest opportunities are in wind and biomass
Countries:
Large potential w/zero growth: Venezuela, Colombia, Central America
Large potential, fast growth: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico
Policies: there are several legal and regulatory initiatives, but not
enough financial incentives and other market mechanisms
Regulation: while Brazil has opted to create specific regulation for
different RE technologies, Chile has introduced broader RE
regulation. It is still early to recommend best model for stimulating
RE markets.
Stakeholders: Project developers are key to consolidate the
market for these technologies and there is not enough critical mass
of them.
Impacts: Still to see.

27. +
The End
gilberto@iei-la.org
jannuzzi@fem.unicamp.br
27

28. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS
- Regulatory
- Local partners/Government
mechanisms
- Manufacturers
- Economic incentives
- Class Associations
- Market creation
- Installation & Maintenance
- Environment Agencies
- NGOs Research
- Consulting & Engineering
- Funders

29. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS
Weights for different scenarios
• Scenario 1: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 1
• Scenario 2: copper = 2; regulation = 1; actors = 1
• Scenario 3: copper = 1; regulation = 2; actors = 1
• Scenario 4: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 2

30. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS
Ranking of evaluated countries-technologies pairs
scenario 1: lower limit amount of additional copper