Looking beyond traditional approaches, Professor Hammond outlines three alternative approaches to model the potential for a renewable energy future.

1. Low Carbon Business Breakfast:
Putting The ‘New Into Renewables,
Innovation Centre, Bath, Tuesday 18th
March 2014.
LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITIONS:
Advances in Developing and Adopting Viable
Renewable Energy Technologies
Geoffrey P. Hammond
Professor of Mechanical Engineering
and Founder Director of I•SEE,
University of Bath, Bath. BA2 7AY.
[Email: ensgph@bath.ac.uk]
LCSW, Bath

2. CONTENTS
 World Energy Transitions: 1850-2050
 Energy and the Environment: the challenge of climate
change
 Drivers for Change in the UK Energy Sector
 UK Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Future
 Micro-generators for Decentralised Heat and Power Supply
⇒ integrated or ‘whole systems’ appraisal
⇒ barriers to take-up, including economics
 Concluding Remarks
LCSW, Bath

3. WORLD ENERGY TRANSITONS
– Shell ‘Dynamics as Usual’ Scenario
LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

4. ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
 Energy sources of various kinds heat and power human
development
 Unwanted ‘side’ effects
⇒ acid rain / global warming
 Need for sustainable development
⇒ sustainable energy strategy (energy efficiency,
renewables and micro-generators, and possibly
nuclear power)
 Conflict with energy market liberalisation LCSW, Bath

5. DRIVERS FOR CHANGE IN THE UK
ENERGY SECTOR
 GLOBAL WARMING
 Much more stringent global ‘greenhouse gas’ budgets/targets likely
to come into play, e.g., to meet the 2008 Climate Change Act that
commits the UK Government to reducing CO2 emissions by 80%
over 1990 levels by 2050
 But fuel poverty and competitiveness remain constraints
 FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES
 More use of natural gas in the UK now worsens diversity
 Depletion of North Sea oil and natural gas supplies
 Natural gas/oil imports: perhaps 2/3 of UK gas imported by
2020. Shale gas might have a role after that.
 NUCLEAR POWER DECLINE, due to the decommissioning of old reactors
 ENERGY SECURITY WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING
Source: updated from the PIU Energy Review Team (Cabinet Office, 2001) LCSW, Bath

6. MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
LCSW, BathSource: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

7.  Market Rules (MR)
 Energy companies focus on large-scale technologies: nuclear power,
offshore wind & capture-ready coal
 Minimal interference in market arrangements
 Central Co-ordination (CC)
 Greater direct government involvement in governance of energy
systems, e.g., issuing tenders for tranches of low-carbon generation
 Focus on centralized generation technologies
 Thousand Flowers (TF)
 More local, bottom-up diversity of solutions
 Local leadership in decentralized options LCSW, Bath
UK CORE TRANSITION PATHWAYS

8. LCSW,
UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘MARKET
RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

9. LCSW,
‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050
CARBON EMISSIONS
.
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
UK Electricity Carbon Emissions,
2050 - per kWh
Gas CCS
11%
Nuclear
1%
CHP
27%
Wind
(offshore)
2%
Coal CCS
56%
Pumped
Storage
1%
Wind
(onshore)
1%

10. LCSW,
UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘THOUSAND
FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

11. LCSW,
‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY –
2050 CARBON EMISSIONS
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

12. LCSW, Bath
UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS - POWER SECTOR
TOTAL CARBON EMISSIONS
Source: Hammond & O’Grady (Proc. Instn Civil. Engrs: Energy, 2014)

13. LCSW, Bath
UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS – LIFE-CYCLE
POLLUTANT EMISSIONS (Single Score LCA)
Source: Hammond et al. (Energy Policy, 2013)

14. ACTING LOCALLY/THINKING GLOBALLY
- The Climate Change/Energy Hierarchy
LCSW, Bath
 Encourage sustainable lifestyles
________________________
 Use less energy
 Use renewable energy to provide energy services
 Supply energy efficiently e.g., use combined heat
and power (CHP) and community heating
________________________
 Offset residual carbon dioxide emissions that
cannot be avoided by other means
Source: ESD, Corsham

15. ENERGY LOSSES FROM THE
CENTRALISED POWER NETWORK
LCSW, BathSource: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

16. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 1
 DECENTRALISED FORMS OF ELECTRICITY AND HEAT
GENERATION – FACILITATED BY ‘SMART’ GRIDS AND
NETWORKS
⇒ Large industrial CHP plants
⇒ Onshore and offshore wind ‘farms’
⇒ Widespread use of bioenergy plants and biofuels
(e.g., biodiesel or bioethanol)
⇒ Micro-generation (kW scale):
* embedded or standalone solar PV
* small-scale wind generators
* domestic-scale CHP plants
* heat pumps – from ground, air or water sourcesLCSW, Bath

17. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 2
LCSW, Bath
Source: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

18. DELIVERED ENERGY TO MEET END-USES
IN THE UK RESIDENTAIL SECTOR
LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting and Appliances
PJ
Electricity
Gas
Solid fuel
Oil

19. MICRO-GENERATION
 Micro-generation could be the most radical form of energy
system decentralisation -
⇒ Many technological ‘evangelists’ have focused on
solar thermal, solar PV, small-scale wind turbines,
heat pumps, and micro-CHP plants.
⇒ They would blur the distinction between energy
supply and demand.
⇒ Consumers may become more active participants
in energy system development and operation.
Source: after Dr Jim Watson (SPRU, 2003)
LCSW, Bath

20. LCSW, Bath
RESIDENTIAL MICRO-GENERATION
Electricity
generation
Micro-wind (Proven) Solar PV
Heat
generation
Solar thermal Heat pumps (HeatKing):
air & ground source
Combinedheatandpower
(Microgen)
Micro-CHP:
Internal combustion
Stirling
Fuel cell

21. SOME ESTIMATED MICRO-GENERATOR
OUTPUTS
LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
'Open' micro-wind 'Urban' micro-wind Solar PV Solar hot water
MICRO-GENERATOR TYPE
ANNUALOUTPUT(kWh)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
ANNUALOUTPUT(GJ)
Energy Exergy
(1.7m rotor diameter, 600W at 12m/s) (15m2
, 2.1kWp m-Si) (2.8m2
flat plate)
ELECTRICITY (WORK)
OUTPUT TO HOUSE
HOT WATER (HEAT)
OUTPUT TO END USER

22. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008
ENERGY PAYBACK PERIODS (PBP) FOR
SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS

23. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)
ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT
OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) UNITS

24. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)
FINANCIAL APPRAISAL OF SELECTED
MICRO-GENERATORS

25. BARRIERS TO MICRO-GENERATION
Lack of information and awareness.
Planning permission problems.
Overcoming the cost barriers:
⇒ clean energy cash back for electricity – now largely
addressed via the ‘feed-in tariffs (FiT) scheme;
implemented in April 2010.
⇒ clean energy cash back for renewable heat – via the
Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI).
Expensive compared with conventional technology.
Source: UK Energy Review and Microgeneration Strategy (2006);
The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009)
LCSW, Bath

26. CHALLENGES TO A DISTRIBUTED
ENERGY SYSTEM
Need to maintain our reliable system (currently the
reliability of the power network is around 98%;
according to ofgem).
Potential savings due to a reduced need for
investment in large power stations cannot be
captured until the UK has reliable capacity in small-
scale plant – may take many years.
Technology needed for truly distributed
infrastructure, e.g., storage, is still emerging.
High costs of the small-scale systems.
LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

27. LCSW, Bath
ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINTS OF
VARIOUS POWER SECTOR GENERATORS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biofuel Other Natural
flow
hydro
Wind Solar PV
Fuel
EnvironmentalFootprint(gha/GWh)
Carbon Embodied Energy Transport Built Land Water Waste
Source: Alderson et al. (Energy, 2012)

28. CONCLUDING REMARKS 1
 Specification & analysis of transition pathways & branching
points could inform actions needed & consensus building for a
shared vision
 Analysis shows implications of uncertainties, including
 Future progress in different energy technologies
 Role of ICTs to help facilitate change through a ‘smart grid’
 Role of changes in actors’ habits, practices & wider social values
 And how they might interact with technological change
 Shows pathways with different/shifting roles for large & small
government, market & civil society actors
 & how they might lead to alternative visions & realities of a low-
carbon society
 Throws light on opportunities & challenges of a ‘more electric’
LCSW, BathSource: : Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010); Hammond & Pearson, Energy Policy, 2013)

29. CONCLUDING REMARKS 2
An energy system with more highly distributed micro-
generators could clearly help to reduce carbon emissions.
Importance of network developments and smart metering
systems to facilitate distributed energy generation.
Need to ensure that all micro-generators are technologically
and economically proven.
These are new technologies and therefore need support –
consequently incentives are important (e.g., FiT and the RHI).
Such support mechanisms need to be applied consistently over
time.
The main barriers include lack of knowledge and awareness,
capital costs, and planning issues.
LCSW, BathSource: adapted from Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

30. LCSW, Bath
The work presented here has been supported by the Research
Councils’ Energy Programme (RCEP):
 as part of the SUPERGEN ‘Highly Distributed Energy Futures’
(HiDEF) Consortium [under Grant EP/G031681/1];
 the ‘Realising Transition Pathways’ (RTP) Consortium [under
Grant EP/K005316/1];
 and their predecessor grants.
THANK YOU
END OF THE PRESENTATION