- American public opinion is often uninformed, inconsistent, and illogical across issues. While the Supreme Court has around 74% approval, only about 50% know its main function. - Public opinion polls systematically interview a random sample of citizens to estimate opinions of the whole population. However, sampling errors and biases can occur if the sample is not truly representative. - Issues like question wording, sample selection biases, and socially desirable responding can impact the accuracy of public opinion polls in representing overall public views. Polls must use random, representative samples and avoid leading questions to provide an accurate depiction of public opinion.

1. Public Opinion

2. Public Opinion EXPRESSIONS (not attitudes) of individuals regarding their political leaders and institutions as well as political and social issues. Attitudes cannot be measured

3. American Public Opinion is… Uninformed: Supreme Court is the most approved government body, at ~74% approval ~50% of Americans know what the Supreme Court’s main function is

4. American Public Opinion is… Uninformed Inconsistent Illogical across issues

6. American Public Opinion is… Uninformed Inconsistent Unconnected Most who oppose abortion support the death penalty

7. Survey Systematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.

8. Public Opinion Poll a relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.

9. The Theory of Probability

10. Sampling Error?

11. 68% 95% The Bell Curve

12. Representative Sample each individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey

14. Straw Polls Unscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling. Think “Jaywalk All-Stars” -or local news

15. 1936 Presidential Election

17. 2004 Zogby Exit Polls

18. Push polls Polls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.

19. Push Polls Do you support abortion? Do you support the extermination of unborn children? Do you favor Obama? Would you support Obama if he favored tax increases?

20. Sampling Issues Biased sample population SELECTION BIAS is the most important issue Inherent characteristics of a sample which lead it to be unrepresentative of the population at large. Representative = mirror of the population Pollsters should really focus on the voting population

21. Sampling Issues Biased sample population Most important issue Sample Size Quantity is good, quality is better

22. Sampling Issues Biased sample population Most important issue Sample Size Quantity is good, quality is better Wording of questions/response options “ framing can occur” as with push polls

23. Examples of Selection Bias Original Studies on Vegetarian Diets

24. Examples of Selection Bias Original studies on Vegetarian Diets United Nations is terrible at peacekeeping Causes of War case studies

25. Actual Question

26. Actual Question

27. Use of Polls Rachel Maddow (and others): 72% of Foxnews viewers oppose the Civil Rights Act Is this an accurate depiction?

28. Civil Rights Act (1964) Title I: Equal Application of Voter Registration Standards Title II: No discrimination in “public accommodations engaged in interstate commerce” Title III: Sub-National Governments cannot ban access to public facilities based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity Title IV: Attorney General can sue to enforce desegregation Title V: Expanded powers of Civil Rights Commission Title VI: No discrimination by government agencies that receive federal funding

29. Use of Polls One provision of the act is vaguely referenced Consider this alternative: Do you support the Civil Rights Act of 1964? Yes: 28% No: 72% Would the conclusion “72% of Foxnews viewers oppose Civil Rights Act” be accurate?

30. Use of Polls NO!!! We still don’t know the nature of the sample Not all viewers were asked The sample was not random (it was self-selected) 72% of RESPONDENTS, not viewers

31. Other issues Middle Tendencies “ Socially acceptable” responses Some “pretend” to have an opinion Public Affairs Act (filter question)

32. Consider this… A national public opinion poll of 1200 randomly selected respondents indicated: 620 (51.7%) favor Obama 580 (48.3%) favor McCain This is a +/- 2.8% confidence interval Who is leading???

33. The Leader is… No one Obama could be supported by as low as 48.9% McCain could be favored by as high as 51.1% “ Statistical dead heat”

34. Why does public opinion matter? Some argue government should reflect the will of the people Clinton very sensitive to polls (Somalia) Bush not so much Media will mislead, misinterpret, “misunderestimate,” etc. Be skeptical of what is reported

35. Political Socialization the learning process through which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs and values.

36. Political beliefs are acquired through a lifelong learning process.

38. Age-Cohort Tendency

39. Agents of Political Socialization Family Schools Mass Media Peers Political Institutions & Leaders Churches

41. Public Opinion of… Race and ethnicity Religion Region City vs. country Party Affiliation