The document discusses public opinion, defined as the views of ordinary citizens expressed through words or actions. It covers methods of polling, including systematic surveys and the importance of representative sampling, while also addressing unscientific polls, political socialization, and the factors influencing political beliefs and opinions. Key agents of political socialization include family, schools, mass media, peers, and religious institutions.

1. Public Opinion Dr. Christopher S. Rice

2. Public Opinion The politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openly through words or actions.

3. Polling

4. Survey Systematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.

5. Public Opinion Poll a relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.

6. The Theory of Probability

7. Sampling Error?

8. 68% 95% The Bell Curve

9. Representative (Probability) Sample sample in which each individual in the population has a known probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey

10. Phone Books and Computer Dialing (cc) 2006 mj ecker Some Rights Reserved

11. What about Cell Phones? (cc) 2006 Andreww Hubbell Some Rights Reserved

12. Straw Polls Unscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling.

13. 1936 Presidential Election

15. 1948 Presidential Election

16. 2004 Zogby Exit Polls

17. Push polls Polls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.

18. Political Socialization the learning process through which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs and values.

19. Political beliefs are NOT ingrained… they are acquired through a lifelong learning process.

20. Political outlook is substantially influenced by childhood learning.

21. Political Socialization is CUMULATIVE in nature

22. VS.

23. Age-Cohort Tendency

24. Agents of Political Socialization Family Schools Mass Media Peers Political Institutions & Leaders Churches

25. Effects on Public Opinion of… Race and ethnicity Religion Region City vs. country Party Affiliation