The document outlines various theories of voting behavior including responsible-party government, electoral competition, and retrospective voting, noting flaws in each model. It explains how sociological, social-psychological, and rational choice models account for voter decisions, highlighting limitations such as information costs and political disengagement. The document emphasizes the complexities of voting patterns and the influence of candidate image and party affiliation on voter decisions.

1. Voting and Elections Dr. Christopher S. Rice University of Kentucky

2. Would you support a female candidate for president? Yes No Maybe

4. How Two-Party Elections Can Lead to Democracy Three Theories: Responsible-party government Electoral Competition Retrospective Voting/Electoral Reward and Punishment

5. Responsible-party Government Based on idea of elections providing a real choice or alternative. Assumptions: Each of two parties is cohesive and unified Each party takes a clear policy position that differentiates the two Citizens accurately perceive these positions, vote on the basis of them Winning party will follow through on their promises

6. Responsible-party Government Evaluation: Doesn’t guarantee popular sovereignty or political equality Doesn’t guarantee winning party will take popular policy positions – just the least un popular. Parties are NOT unified or cohesive, don’t always take clear stands on issues. Voters do not vote solely on the issues Parties don’t always keep their promises.

7. Electoral Competition Both parties should compete for votes by taking the most popular positions they can.

8. 68% 95% Electoral Competition Theory Democrat Republican

9. Electoral Competition Assumptions: Two parties take clear, unified stands on issues. Citizens vote based on issues. Parties do what they promised.

10. Electoral Competition Problems: Both parties likely to support the same policies: those most favored by voters. Parties will tend to take policy stands near midpoint of public opinion Doesn’t promise the parties will educate or mobilize voters

11. Electoral Competition Evaluation Ensures democratic control only if parties are unified and take clear stands The need to raise campaign funds could endanger concept of democracy. For democracy to work, voters have to: Vote only on issues + know positions taken by parties Neither of these is likely

12. Electoral Competition Evaluation (cont’d) Conditions close enough to the truth to tell us something about the reality of elections. EC one reason why government policy influenced by popular opinion. Look at how elections deviate from theoretical ideal to see how elections might be improved as instruments of democracy.

13. Retrospective Voting People vote for incumbents when times are good, against them when times are bad. Each election, retrospective judgments about how incumbent officials have done in the past . Parties compete by emphasizing competence, way they reflect public’s goals, NOT by taking specific policy stands.

14. Retrospective Voting Voters don’t bother to form preferences on complex issues – just voting on past performance. Politicians have strong incentives to solve problems people want solved.

15. Retrospective Voting Evaluation Simplicity – requires very little of voters. Allows voters to focus only on most crucial issues Relies on selfishness of politicians not altruism. Problem: may encourage politicians to produce deceptively happy results just before an election.

16. Retrospective Voting Evaluation(cont’d) Allows time for deliberation, experimental/unpopular policies as long as results work out well, please public before next election Problem: gets rid of bad political leaders only after disasters happen, no guarantee next group will do any better .

17. The model of voting behavior which states that an individual's vote is a factor of their attachment to the political party and their opinion about the candidates and issues is known as: the social-psychological model. the sociological model. the rational choice model. the party/opinion model.

18. The model of voting behavior which states that the decision to vote is based on the logical calculations of costs and benefits is known as: the social-psychological model. the sociological model. the cost-benefit model. the rational choice model.

19. Models of Voting Behavior Three theories of vote choice have emerged in an attempt to explain why people vote as they do: The sociological model The social-psychological model The rational choice model

20. Sociological (Columbia) Model Developed in 1940’s @ Columbia University after “consumer preference” theory went bust. “Consumer Preference” theory was a bust because they found people made up their minds well in advance of advertising campaigns.

21. Sociological (Columbia) Model Alternative theory: sociological variables – characteristics of groups – strongly correlated with vote choice. SM uses group-level characteristics to explain how people vote. Socio-economic status (SES) Religion Place of Residence

22. Who votes? Higher incomes, more formal education. Very young unlikely to vote. Unemployed have a very low rate of turnout. Latinos have especially low turnout rate, but it is increasing. Crucial factor in voter turnout is level of formal education - could be a proxy for income.

27. Problems with the Sociological Model Certain group differences still associated with voter choice, but SM can’t explain WHY. Groups behaviors have changed over time. Model based on small-n research sample, larger sample studies had difficulty with replication.

28. Socio-Psychological Model aka, Michigan Model. Developed late-1940’s. Explains vote choice not as product of group characteristics but of individual attitudes.

29. Which candidate quality would matter most in deciding your vote for president? Leadership ability/good prior experience Willing to bring about needed change Cares about people like me Has strong personal character Has the best plan for the country

30. Vote Choice Criteria Issue Voting Prospective Voting (Issues) Retrospective Voting (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image

31. Things to know Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems

32. Prospective Voting (Issues) Decision Rule: Vote for candidate closer to own position on the issue(s) Info Required: Have opinion Know candidates’ opinions on the issue Care about the issue See difference between candidates on issue Voter Rationality: Very Rational

33. Prospective Voting (Issues) Elite Accountability: HIGH Elites know what majority of voter prefer (party platform) Know they’ll be thrown out if they don’t follow through Possibility of a mandate Problems High information costs Candidates don’t often take clear, divergent positions on the issues

34. Retrospective Voting (Performance Evaluations) Decision Rule: Vote for candidate or party based on their past performance. Info Required: Rough assessment of whether economy, security, etc., has gotten better or worse under incumbent. Voter Rationality: FAIRLY rational Performance info more accessible, reliable than issue information

35. Retrospective Voting (Performance Evaluations) Elite Accountability: Reasonable. Elites must maintain good performance. OTOH, candidates can ignore voters’ preferences as long as they produce results voters want. Problems: Hard to figure out responsibility in a divided government. Hard to figure out how well economy, security doing based on candidates’ claims, media coverage, short term performance assessments, election-year “tricks”.

36. How rational do you believe voting on the basis of a candidate’s party affiliation to be? Very rational Somewhat rational Not very rational Not at all rational Don’t know.don’t care

37. Party ID Revisionists say this is an irrational criterion. Decision Rule: Vote for candidate with same party affiliation as you. Info Required: Only candidate’s party affiliation. Voter Rationality: Rational IF used to infer candidate’s ideology, traditional party stands, performance on issues.

38. Party ID Elite Accountability: Some – if candidates know voters share their party’s “philosophy of government”, which they try to translate into public policy. Problems: Not all candidates share their party’s philosophy on all (or most) issues. Party philosophy can be vague. Voters can end up voting for “wrong” candidate

39. Candidate Image Revisionists say this is an irrational criterion. Decision Rule: Vote for candidate with better, more desirable personal characteristics. Info Required: Some assessment of candidates’ personalities. Voter Rationality: Rational IF rely on traits to predict how candidate will govern, respond to unanticipated events. Trust, competence and strength vs. looks and style

40. Candidate Image Elite Accountability: LOW Must trust candidate with the “right stuff” to do the right thing in office. Problems: Think we can size up a candidate’s personality, but candidates do their best to portray selves in a favorable light in controlled, rehearsed settings.

41. Rational Choice Model Argues that decision to show up & vote, particular choices made in polling booth = products of rational calculation. Individuals will vote if the benefits of voting outweigh the costs. Individuals will vote for candidates closest to their beliefs on issues.

42. Voter Rationality Revisionist Dem. Low Information Unstable Views Lack of Opinions Representative Dem. How prevalent is low information? Rational Ignorance Heuristics

43. Anthony Downs (Voter Rationality) Information Costs – what does it cost in time, money, effort to be informed. People will be informed if benefits outweigh the costs. Downs – often the cost outweighs the benefits. Take into account benefits of voting Expected benefits = benefits X probability of affecting the outcome of the vote

44. Voter Rationality Heuristics – “cognitive shortcuts” People don’t need a lot of information to make reasonable voting decisions. Toilet Paper Gladwell’s Blink Too much information adds to costs Heuristics like Party ID proven to allow people to make reasonable decisions.

45. Voter Rationality Problems with heuristics Can lead to errors: non-optimal decisions vs. “reasonable” Information can make a difference Rational for individuals to be uninformed, but collectively this is irrational . Ignores costs at the collective level More informed public = more accountable elites Uninformed public susceptible to manipulation.

46. Rational Choice Model Problems: Theory is a poor match with reality. Indications are that Americans are poorly informed about politics. Michigan Model continues to provide the most accepted explanations of voting behavior.