A modular abstraction is presented to implement model predictive control (MPC) on a three phase two level voltage source inverter to control its output current. Traditional ways of coded implementation do not provide insights into the complex nature of MPC; hence a more intuitive, logical and flexible approach for hardware implementation is conceptualized in the form of signal flow graphs (SFGs) for estimation, prediction and optimization. Simulation results show good performance of the approach and easier code generation for real time implementation. RL load is assumed for the inverter and the importance of choosing load inductance and sampling time ratio is emphasized for better control performance.
Performance Assessment of Polyphase Sequences Using Cyclic Algorithmrahulmonikasharma
Polyphase Sequences (known as P1, P2, Px, Frank) exist for a square integer length with good auto correlation properties are helpful in the several applications. Unlike the Barker and Binary Sequences which exist for certain length and exhibits a maximum of two digit merit factor. The Integrated Sidelobe level (ISL) is often used to define excellence of the autocorrelation properties of given Polyphase sequence. In this paper, we present the application of Cyclic Algorithm named CA which minimizes the ISL (Integrated Sidelobe Level) related metric which in turn improve the Merit factor to a greater extent is main thing in applications like RADAR, SONAR and communications. To illustrate the performance of the P1, P2, Px, Frank sequences when cyclic Algorithm is applied. we presented a number of examples for integer lengths. CA(Px) sequence exhibits the good Merit Factor among all the Polyphase sequences that are considered.
A Novel Technique in Software Engineering for Building Scalable Large Paralle...Eswar Publications
Parallel processing is the only alternative for meeting computational demand of scientific and technological advancement. Yet first few parallelized versions of a large application code- in the present case-a meteorological Global Circulation Model- are not usually optimal or efficient. Large size and complexity of the code cause making changes for efficient parallelization and further validation difficult. The paper presents some novel techniques to enable change of parallelization strategy keeping the correctness of the code under control throughout the modification.
A modular abstraction is presented to implement model predictive control (MPC) on a three phase two level voltage source inverter to control its output current. Traditional ways of coded implementation do not provide insights into the complex nature of MPC; hence a more intuitive, logical and flexible approach for hardware implementation is conceptualized in the form of signal flow graphs (SFGs) for estimation, prediction and optimization. Simulation results show good performance of the approach and easier code generation for real time implementation. RL load is assumed for the inverter and the importance of choosing load inductance and sampling time ratio is emphasized for better control performance.
Performance Assessment of Polyphase Sequences Using Cyclic Algorithmrahulmonikasharma
Polyphase Sequences (known as P1, P2, Px, Frank) exist for a square integer length with good auto correlation properties are helpful in the several applications. Unlike the Barker and Binary Sequences which exist for certain length and exhibits a maximum of two digit merit factor. The Integrated Sidelobe level (ISL) is often used to define excellence of the autocorrelation properties of given Polyphase sequence. In this paper, we present the application of Cyclic Algorithm named CA which minimizes the ISL (Integrated Sidelobe Level) related metric which in turn improve the Merit factor to a greater extent is main thing in applications like RADAR, SONAR and communications. To illustrate the performance of the P1, P2, Px, Frank sequences when cyclic Algorithm is applied. we presented a number of examples for integer lengths. CA(Px) sequence exhibits the good Merit Factor among all the Polyphase sequences that are considered.
A Novel Technique in Software Engineering for Building Scalable Large Paralle...Eswar Publications
Parallel processing is the only alternative for meeting computational demand of scientific and technological advancement. Yet first few parallelized versions of a large application code- in the present case-a meteorological Global Circulation Model- are not usually optimal or efficient. Large size and complexity of the code cause making changes for efficient parallelization and further validation difficult. The paper presents some novel techniques to enable change of parallelization strategy keeping the correctness of the code under control throughout the modification.
MODELLING ANALYSIS & DESIGN OF DSP BASED NOVEL SPEED SENSORLESS VECTOR CONTRO...IAEME Publication
Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), which is an update d version of EKF, is proposed as a state estimator for speed sensorless field oriented contr ol of induction motors. UKF state update computations, different from EKF, are derivative fr ee and they do not involve costly calculation of Jacobian matrices. Moreover, variance of each state is not assumed Gaussian, therefore a more realistic approach is provided by UKF. In order to examine the rotor speed (state V) estimation performance of UKF experimentally under varying spe ed conditions, a trapezoidal speed reference command is embedded into the DSP code. EKF rotor speed estimation successfully tracks the trapezoidal path. It has been observed that the est imated states are quite close to the measured ones. The magnitude of the rotor flux justifies that the estimated dq components of the rotor flux are estimated accurately. A number of simulations were carried out to verify the performance of the speed estimation with UKF. These simulated results are confirmed with the experimental results. While obtaining the experimental results, the real time stator voltages and currents are processed in Matlab with the associated EKF and UKF programs.
Combinational logic circuit timing analysis is an important issue that all designers need to
address. The present paper presents a simple and compact analysis procedure. We follow the
guidelines drawn by previous methods, but we shall define new time-dependent logic variables
that help us improve their efficiency. By using the methodology suggested, we shall replace a
very laborious technique (pure delay circuit + time constants method) with a simpler procedure
that can pinpoint the specific conditions for a logic circuit’s anomalous behaviour within a few
simple steps. Considering the logic function implemented the methodology presented will
require analysis of only a limited number of situations/combinations to determine the presence
of an anomalous behaviour. When anomalous behaviour is identified, the methodology provides
a clear timing description
Short-term load forecasting with using multiple linear regression IJECEIAES
In this paper short term load forecasting (STLF) is done with using multiple linear regression (MLR). A day ahead load forecasting is obtained in this paper. Regression coefficients were found out with the help of method of least square estimation. Load in electrical power system is dependent on temperature, due point and seasons and also load has correlation to the previous load consumption (Historical data). So the input variables are temperature, due point, load of prior day, hours, and load of prior week. To validate the model or check the accuracy of the model mean absolute percentage error is used and R squared is checked which is shown in result section. Using day ahead forecasted data weekly forecast is also obtained.
Optimal energy management and storage sizing for electric vehiclesPower System Operation
Combining storages with different characteristics can
improve the performance and lifetime of electric vehicles.
For example, a supercapacitor and a battery together
can handle large power transfers from acceleration and
regenerative braking while protecting the battery from
degradation. In this paper, we use approximate dynamic
programming to design a policy for power sharing
between dual storage devices. We write the dynamic
program as a linear program and use basis functions
to approximate the optimal value function. Numerical
results show that the resulting suboptimal policy can
approximate the optimal policy with low error given a
sufficient number of basis functions.
Soft Computing Technique Based Enhancement of Transmission System Lodability ...IJERA Editor
Due to the growth of electricity demands and transactions in power markets, existing power networks need to be enhanced in order to increase their loadability. The problem of determining the best locations for network reinforcement can be formulated as a mixed discrete-continuous nonlinear optimization problem (MDCP). The complexity of the problem makes extensive simulations necessary and the computational requirement is high. This paper compares the effectiveness of Evolutionary Programming (EP) and an ordinal optimization (OO) technique is proposed in this paper to solve the MDCP involving two types of flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS) devices, namely static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC), for system loadability enhancement. In this approach, crude models are proposed to cope with the complexity of the problem and speed up the simulations with high alignment confidence. The test and Validation of the proposed algorithm are conducted on IEEE 14–bus system and 22-bus Indian system.Simulation results shows that the proposed models permit the use of OO-based approach for finding good enough solutions with less computational efforts.
On Selection of Periodic Kernels Parameters in Time Series Prediction cscpconf
In the paper the analysis of the periodic kernels parameters is described. Periodic kernels can
be used for the prediction task, performed as the typical regression problem. On the basis of the
Periodic Kernel Estimator (PerKE) the prediction of real time series is performed. As periodic
kernels require the setting of their parameters it is necessary to analyse their influence on the
prediction quality. This paper describes an easy methodology of finding values of parameters of
periodic kernels. It is based on grid search. Two different error measures are taken into
consideration as the prediction qualities but lead to comparable results. The methodology was
tested on benchmark and real datasets and proved to give satisfactory results.
ON SELECTION OF PERIODIC KERNELS PARAMETERS IN TIME SERIES PREDICTIONcscpconf
In the paper the analysis of the periodic kernels parameters is described. Periodic kernels can
be used for the prediction task, performed as the typical regression problem. On the basis of the
Periodic Kernel Estimator (PerKE) the prediction of real time series is performed. As periodic
kernels require the setting of their parameters it is necessary to analyse their influence on the
prediction quality. This paper describes an easy methodology of finding values of parameters of
periodic kernels. It is based on grid search. Two different error measures are taken into
consideration as the prediction qualities but lead to comparable results. The methodology was
tested on benchmark and real datasets and proved to give satisfactory results.
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway
LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model
measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is
applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square
error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and
Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast
track on trolley positioning.
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway
LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model
measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is
applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square
error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and
Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast
track on trolley positioning.
SIMMECHANICS VISUALIZATION OF EXPERIMENTAL MODEL OVERHEAD CRANE, ITS LINEARIZ...ijccmsjournal
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast track on trolley positioning.
IJERA (International journal of Engineering Research and Applications) is International online, ... peer reviewed journal. For more detail or submit your article, please visit www.ijera.com
IJERA (International journal of Engineering Research and Applications) is International online, ... peer reviewed journal. For more detail or submit your article, please visit www.ijera.com
COLLEGE BUS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PROJECT REPORT.pdfKamal Acharya
The College Bus Management system is completely developed by Visual Basic .NET Version. The application is connect with most secured database language MS SQL Server. The application is develop by using best combination of front-end and back-end languages. The application is totally design like flat user interface. This flat user interface is more attractive user interface in 2017. The application is gives more important to the system functionality. The application is to manage the student’s details, driver’s details, bus details, bus route details, bus fees details and more. The application has only one unit for admin. The admin can manage the entire application. The admin can login into the application by using username and password of the admin. The application is develop for big and small colleges. It is more user friendly for non-computer person. Even they can easily learn how to manage the application within hours. The application is more secure by the admin. The system will give an effective output for the VB.Net and SQL Server given as input to the system. The compiled java program given as input to the system, after scanning the program will generate different reports. The application generates the report for users. The admin can view and download the report of the data. The application deliver the excel format reports. Because, excel formatted reports is very easy to understand the income and expense of the college bus. This application is mainly develop for windows operating system users. In 2017, 73% of people enterprises are using windows operating system. So the application will easily install for all the windows operating system users. The application-developed size is very low. The application consumes very low space in disk. Therefore, the user can allocate very minimum local disk space for this application.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
MODELLING ANALYSIS & DESIGN OF DSP BASED NOVEL SPEED SENSORLESS VECTOR CONTRO...IAEME Publication
Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), which is an update d version of EKF, is proposed as a state estimator for speed sensorless field oriented contr ol of induction motors. UKF state update computations, different from EKF, are derivative fr ee and they do not involve costly calculation of Jacobian matrices. Moreover, variance of each state is not assumed Gaussian, therefore a more realistic approach is provided by UKF. In order to examine the rotor speed (state V) estimation performance of UKF experimentally under varying spe ed conditions, a trapezoidal speed reference command is embedded into the DSP code. EKF rotor speed estimation successfully tracks the trapezoidal path. It has been observed that the est imated states are quite close to the measured ones. The magnitude of the rotor flux justifies that the estimated dq components of the rotor flux are estimated accurately. A number of simulations were carried out to verify the performance of the speed estimation with UKF. These simulated results are confirmed with the experimental results. While obtaining the experimental results, the real time stator voltages and currents are processed in Matlab with the associated EKF and UKF programs.
Combinational logic circuit timing analysis is an important issue that all designers need to
address. The present paper presents a simple and compact analysis procedure. We follow the
guidelines drawn by previous methods, but we shall define new time-dependent logic variables
that help us improve their efficiency. By using the methodology suggested, we shall replace a
very laborious technique (pure delay circuit + time constants method) with a simpler procedure
that can pinpoint the specific conditions for a logic circuit’s anomalous behaviour within a few
simple steps. Considering the logic function implemented the methodology presented will
require analysis of only a limited number of situations/combinations to determine the presence
of an anomalous behaviour. When anomalous behaviour is identified, the methodology provides
a clear timing description
Short-term load forecasting with using multiple linear regression IJECEIAES
In this paper short term load forecasting (STLF) is done with using multiple linear regression (MLR). A day ahead load forecasting is obtained in this paper. Regression coefficients were found out with the help of method of least square estimation. Load in electrical power system is dependent on temperature, due point and seasons and also load has correlation to the previous load consumption (Historical data). So the input variables are temperature, due point, load of prior day, hours, and load of prior week. To validate the model or check the accuracy of the model mean absolute percentage error is used and R squared is checked which is shown in result section. Using day ahead forecasted data weekly forecast is also obtained.
Optimal energy management and storage sizing for electric vehiclesPower System Operation
Combining storages with different characteristics can
improve the performance and lifetime of electric vehicles.
For example, a supercapacitor and a battery together
can handle large power transfers from acceleration and
regenerative braking while protecting the battery from
degradation. In this paper, we use approximate dynamic
programming to design a policy for power sharing
between dual storage devices. We write the dynamic
program as a linear program and use basis functions
to approximate the optimal value function. Numerical
results show that the resulting suboptimal policy can
approximate the optimal policy with low error given a
sufficient number of basis functions.
Soft Computing Technique Based Enhancement of Transmission System Lodability ...IJERA Editor
Due to the growth of electricity demands and transactions in power markets, existing power networks need to be enhanced in order to increase their loadability. The problem of determining the best locations for network reinforcement can be formulated as a mixed discrete-continuous nonlinear optimization problem (MDCP). The complexity of the problem makes extensive simulations necessary and the computational requirement is high. This paper compares the effectiveness of Evolutionary Programming (EP) and an ordinal optimization (OO) technique is proposed in this paper to solve the MDCP involving two types of flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS) devices, namely static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC), for system loadability enhancement. In this approach, crude models are proposed to cope with the complexity of the problem and speed up the simulations with high alignment confidence. The test and Validation of the proposed algorithm are conducted on IEEE 14–bus system and 22-bus Indian system.Simulation results shows that the proposed models permit the use of OO-based approach for finding good enough solutions with less computational efforts.
On Selection of Periodic Kernels Parameters in Time Series Prediction cscpconf
In the paper the analysis of the periodic kernels parameters is described. Periodic kernels can
be used for the prediction task, performed as the typical regression problem. On the basis of the
Periodic Kernel Estimator (PerKE) the prediction of real time series is performed. As periodic
kernels require the setting of their parameters it is necessary to analyse their influence on the
prediction quality. This paper describes an easy methodology of finding values of parameters of
periodic kernels. It is based on grid search. Two different error measures are taken into
consideration as the prediction qualities but lead to comparable results. The methodology was
tested on benchmark and real datasets and proved to give satisfactory results.
ON SELECTION OF PERIODIC KERNELS PARAMETERS IN TIME SERIES PREDICTIONcscpconf
In the paper the analysis of the periodic kernels parameters is described. Periodic kernels can
be used for the prediction task, performed as the typical regression problem. On the basis of the
Periodic Kernel Estimator (PerKE) the prediction of real time series is performed. As periodic
kernels require the setting of their parameters it is necessary to analyse their influence on the
prediction quality. This paper describes an easy methodology of finding values of parameters of
periodic kernels. It is based on grid search. Two different error measures are taken into
consideration as the prediction qualities but lead to comparable results. The methodology was
tested on benchmark and real datasets and proved to give satisfactory results.
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway
LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model
measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is
applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square
error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and
Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast
track on trolley positioning.
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway
LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model
measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is
applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square
error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and
Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast
track on trolley positioning.
SIMMECHANICS VISUALIZATION OF EXPERIMENTAL MODEL OVERHEAD CRANE, ITS LINEARIZ...ijccmsjournal
Overhead Crane experimental model using Simmechanic Visualization is presented for the robust antisway LQR control. First, 1D translational motion of overhead crane is designed with exact lab model measurements and features. Second, linear least square system identification with 7 past inputs/outputs is applied on collected simulation data to produce more predicted models. Third, minimize root mean square error and identified the best fit model with lowest RMSE. Finally, Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and Reference tracking with pre-compensator have been implemented to minimize load swing and perform fast track on trolley positioning.
IJERA (International journal of Engineering Research and Applications) is International online, ... peer reviewed journal. For more detail or submit your article, please visit www.ijera.com
IJERA (International journal of Engineering Research and Applications) is International online, ... peer reviewed journal. For more detail or submit your article, please visit www.ijera.com
COLLEGE BUS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PROJECT REPORT.pdfKamal Acharya
The College Bus Management system is completely developed by Visual Basic .NET Version. The application is connect with most secured database language MS SQL Server. The application is develop by using best combination of front-end and back-end languages. The application is totally design like flat user interface. This flat user interface is more attractive user interface in 2017. The application is gives more important to the system functionality. The application is to manage the student’s details, driver’s details, bus details, bus route details, bus fees details and more. The application has only one unit for admin. The admin can manage the entire application. The admin can login into the application by using username and password of the admin. The application is develop for big and small colleges. It is more user friendly for non-computer person. Even they can easily learn how to manage the application within hours. The application is more secure by the admin. The system will give an effective output for the VB.Net and SQL Server given as input to the system. The compiled java program given as input to the system, after scanning the program will generate different reports. The application generates the report for users. The admin can view and download the report of the data. The application deliver the excel format reports. Because, excel formatted reports is very easy to understand the income and expense of the college bus. This application is mainly develop for windows operating system users. In 2017, 73% of people enterprises are using windows operating system. So the application will easily install for all the windows operating system users. The application-developed size is very low. The application consumes very low space in disk. Therefore, the user can allocate very minimum local disk space for this application.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
A case study of the used of Advanced Process Control at the Wastewater Treatment works at Lleida in Spain
A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
CFD Simulation of By-pass Flow in a HRSG module by R&R Consult.pptxR&R Consult
CFD analysis is incredibly effective at solving mysteries and improving the performance of complex systems!
Here's a great example: At a large natural gas-fired power plant, where they use waste heat to generate steam and energy, they were puzzled that their boiler wasn't producing as much steam as expected.
R&R and Tetra Engineering Group Inc. were asked to solve the issue with reduced steam production.
An inspection had shown that a significant amount of hot flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes, where the heat was supposed to be transferred.
R&R Consult conducted a CFD analysis, which revealed that 6.3% of the flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes without transferring heat. The analysis also showed that the flue gas was instead being directed along the sides of the boiler and between the modules that were supposed to capture the heat. This was the cause of the reduced performance.
Based on our results, Tetra Engineering installed covering plates to reduce the bypass flow. This improved the boiler's performance and increased electricity production.
It is always satisfying when we can help solve complex challenges like this. Do your systems also need a check-up or optimization? Give us a call!
Work done in cooperation with James Malloy and David Moelling from Tetra Engineering.
More examples of our work https://www.r-r-consult.dk/en/cases-en/
Immunizing Image Classifiers Against Localized Adversary Attacksgerogepatton
This paper addresses the vulnerability of deep learning models, particularly convolutional neural networks
(CNN)s, to adversarial attacks and presents a proactive training technique designed to counter them. We
introduce a novel volumization algorithm, which transforms 2D images into 3D volumetric representations.
When combined with 3D convolution and deep curriculum learning optimization (CLO), itsignificantly improves
the immunity of models against localized universal attacks by up to 40%. We evaluate our proposed approach
using contemporary CNN architectures and the modified Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR-10
and CIFAR-100) and ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC12) datasets, showcasing
accuracy improvements over previous techniques. The results indicate that the combination of the volumetric
input and curriculum learning holds significant promise for mitigating adversarial attacks without necessitating
adversary training.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
Vaccine management system project report documentation..pdfKamal Acharya
The Division of Vaccine and Immunization is facing increasing difficulty monitoring vaccines and other commodities distribution once they have been distributed from the national stores. With the introduction of new vaccines, more challenges have been anticipated with this additions posing serious threat to the already over strained vaccine supply chain system in Kenya.
Hybrid optimization of pumped hydro system and solar- Engr. Abdul-Azeez.pdffxintegritypublishin
Advancements in technology unveil a myriad of electrical and electronic breakthroughs geared towards efficiently harnessing limited resources to meet human energy demands. The optimization of hybrid solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems plays a pivotal role in utilizing natural resources effectively. This initiative not only benefits humanity but also fosters environmental sustainability. The study investigated the design optimization of these hybrid systems, focusing on understanding solar radiation patterns, identifying geographical influences on solar radiation, formulating a mathematical model for system optimization, and determining the optimal configuration of PV panels and pumped hydro storage. Through a comparative analysis approach and eight weeks of data collection, the study addressed key research questions related to solar radiation patterns and optimal system design. The findings highlighted regions with heightened solar radiation levels, showcasing substantial potential for power generation and emphasizing the system's efficiency. Optimizing system design significantly boosted power generation, promoted renewable energy utilization, and enhanced energy storage capacity. The study underscored the benefits of optimizing hybrid solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems for sustainable energy usage. Optimizing the design of solar PV panels and pumped hydro energy supply systems as examined across diverse climatic conditions in a developing country, not only enhances power generation but also improves the integration of renewable energy sources and boosts energy storage capacities, particularly beneficial for less economically prosperous regions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights for advancing energy research in economically viable areas. Recommendations included conducting site-specific assessments, utilizing advanced modeling tools, implementing regular maintenance protocols, and enhancing communication among system components.
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
This presentation is about the working procedure of Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL). A Govt. owned Company of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation under Ministry of Industries.
3. Introduction
Process to predict future demand based on
past data
Nature of load forecasts based on lead time
Nature Lead time Application
Very short term A few seconds to several
minutes
Generation, distribution
schedules, contingency
analysis
Short term Half an hour to a few hours Allocation of spinning reserve,
unit commitment, maintenance
scheduling
Medium term A few days to a few weeks Seasonal peak planning
Long term A few months to a few years Generation growth, plant
expansion
4. Methodology & Techniques
Methodologies
Extrapolation
Correlation
Both extrapolation and correlation
Techniques
Deterministic
Stochastic or probabilistic
5. Extrapolation
Fitting trend curves
Straight line
Parabola
S curve
Exponential
Gempertz
Historical data
Coefficients and exponents (a to d) to be
obtained by least square technique
6. Estimation of average and trend
terms
Total demand can be expressed in general by
Now deterministic term can be given by
Here to note:
( ) ( ) ( )
d s
y k y k y k
( ) ( )
d d
y k y bk e k
( )
( ) mod
d d
y Avereage or mean value of y k
bk Trend term growing with lead time k learnealy
e k Error of elling
7. Estimation of average and trend
terms
Average and trend term are determined using
least square technique to solve performance
index or objective function
To have minimum J index with respect to
average and trend terms, necessary conditions
are:
2
[ ( )]
(.) exp
J E e k
E is ectation operation
2
[ ( ) ] 0
[ ( ) ] 0
d d
d d
E y y k bk
E y k y k k bk
8. Estimation of average and trend
terms
If total N data are assumed to be available for
determining the time averages, these two
relationships can be equivalently expresses as
1 1
1 1 1
2
2
1 1
1
( )
( ) ( )
N N
d d
k k
N N N
d d
k k k
N N
k k
y y k b k
N
N y k k k y k
b
N k k
9. Estimation of periodic
components
Deterministic part of load may contain some
periodic components in addition to the average
and polynomial terms.
1
( ) [ sin cos ] ( )
: sin
: cos
L
i i
i
i
i
y k y a iwk b iwk e k
L Total harmonics
a Amplitudesof usoidal component
b Amplitudesof inusoidal component
10. Estimation of periodic
components
Once harmonic load model is identified, it is
simple to make prediction of the future load
Suppose 168 load data in one period are
collected so that load pattern may be
expressed in terms of Fourier series with
fundamental frequency being equal to
( ) ( ) ( )
d
y k j h k j x k
2
168
11. Estimation of stochastic
component
If yd(k) is subtracted from y(k), the result would
be a sequence of data for stochastic part of the
load.
We have to identify model for ys(k) and then use
it to make prediction ys(k+j).
Convenient way for this is based on the use of
the stochastic time series models.
The simples form of this is so-called auto-
regressive model which has been widely used
to represent the behaviour of a zero mean
12. Auto-regressive model (An AR
model)
The sequence ys(k) is to satisfy an AR model of
order n i.e. it is [AR(n)], if it can be expressed
as:
Where ai are the model parameters and w(k) is
a zero mean white sequence.
1
( ) ( ) ( )
n
s i s
i
y k a y k i w k
13. Auto-regressive model (An AR
model)
In order that solution of this equation may
represent a stationary process, it is required that
the coefficients ai make the roots of the
characteristics equation
lie inside the unit circle in the z-plane.
The problem in estimating n is referred to as the
problem of structural identification, while the
problem of estimation of the parameters ai is
referred to as the problem of parameter
1 2
1 2
1 ...... 0
n
n
a z a z a z
14. Auto-regressive model (An AR
model)
An AR model has advantage that both these
problems are solved relatively easily if the
autocorrelation functions are first computed
using given data.
Once model order n and parameter vector a
have been estimated, next problem is that of
estimating the statistics of the noise process
w(k).
15. Auto-regressive model (An AR
model)
The best that can be done, is based on the
assumption that an estimate of w(k) is provided
by residual
The variance of w(k) is then estimated using
relation
1
( ) ( ),
( ) ( )
s s
n
i s
s
i
e k y y k where
y k a y k i
2 2
1
1
( )
n
k
e k
N
16. Long-term load prediction using
econometric models
If load forecasts are for planning purposes, it is
necessary to select the lead time to lie in the
range of few months to a few years.
In such cases, load demand should be
decomposed in a manner that reflects the
dependence of the load on various segments of
economy of concerned region.
For example the total demand y(k) may be
decomposed
17. Long-term load prediction using
econometric models
For example the total demand y(k) may be
decomposed
1
( ) ( ) ( )
: Re
( ) var
( )
M
i i
i
i
i
y k a y k e k
a ression Coefficients
y k Chosen economic iables
e k Modelling error
18. Long-term load prediction using
econometric models
Relatively simple procedure is to retrieve the
model equation in the vector notation:
The regression coefficients may then be
estimated using the convenient least square
algorithm.
1 2 3
1 2
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) [ ( ) ( ) ( )... ( )]
[ ...... ]
M
M
y k h k x e k
h k y k y k y k y k
and x a a a
19. Long-term load prediction using
econometric models
Load forecasts are then possible through the
simple relation
1
( 1) ( )
( )
int
1
( )
th
y k x k h k
k
x k estimateof coefficient vector based
on data availabe till the k sampling po
and h k is one step ahead prediction
k
of vector h k
20. Reactive load forecasting
Reactive loads are not easy to forecast as
compared to active loads, since reactive loads
are made up of not only reactive components of
loads but also of transmission and distribution
networks & compensation VAR devices such as
FACTs devices.
Therefore past data may not yield the correct
forecasts as reactive load varies with variations
in network configuration during varying
operating conditions.
21. Reactive load forecasting
Use of P with power factor would result into
somewhat satisfactory results.
Of course only very recent past data (few
minutes/hours) may be used with steady state
network configuration.
Such forecasted reactive loads are adapted with
current reactive requirements of the network
including VAR compensation devices.
Such forecasts are needed for security analysis,
voltage/reactive power scheduling etc.