Prosul climate change adaptation thematic study

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Pro-poor Value Chain Development Project in the Maputo and Limpopo Corridors
A thematic study of climate change and
adaptation responses for horticulture,
cassava and red meat value chains in
southern Mozambique
Financed by:
Proposal submitted by the African Climate & Development Initiative (ACDI),
University of Cape Town (UCT)
Physical address: ACDI, Geological Sciences Building, University of Cape Town
Postal address: Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa
Tel: +27 (0) 21 650 5598
Email: zoe.visser@uct.ac.za

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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge and thank the following people who have contributed their time and expertise to
guide the project:
 Mr Daniel Ozias Mate, Project Coordinator, Projecto de Desenvolvimento de Cadeias de Valor
nos Corredores de Maputo e Limpopo (PROSUL), for overseeing this project.
 We owe sincere thanks to Mr Egidio Mutimba, who spent many hours coordinating meetings,
driving on field trips, translating for our researchers, and engaging with stakeholders.
 Mr Anacleto João Chibochuane Duvane, Director Nacional Adjunto, Instituto Nacional De
Meteorologia.
 Ms Etelvina da Conceicao Mazalo, Chefe do Gabinete de Estudos e Difusão, CENACARTA (Centro
Nacional de Cartografia e Teledetecçäo) for supporting the ACDI team with access to GIS map
data.
 Mr Inãcio Nhancale, Direcçäo Nacional de Extensão Agrãria (DNEA), for providing the bigger
picture of agriculture and the nature and uptake of extension services.
 Mr António Mavie, Gestor Técnico Nacional FEWS NET Moçambique, for providing extensive
data on crops and pricing movements in food markets and general household vulnerability.
 The enthusiastic members of the six field focus groups who supplied us with so much
information at the following sites: 1) Marracuene, 2) Lunane – Xai Xai, 3) Chidenguele –
Manjacza, 4) Josina Machel – Inharreme, 5) Hoyo Hoyo – Mabelane, 6) Island Josina Machele –
Manhiça.
Recommended Citation:
African Climate and Development Initiative, (2016). A thematic study on climate change and
adaptation responses for horticulture, cassava and red meat value chains in southern Mozambique.
A report to PROSUL – Centre for the Promotion of Agriculture. University of Cape Town.

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Executive Summary
PROSUL is a pro-poor agricultural value chain development project in the Maputo and Limpopo
corridors of southern Mozambique. The project is managed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Security (MASA). The aim of PROSUL is to sustainably increase financial returns to smallholder
farmers, including interventions on climate resilience, land tenure and gender equity. The objectives
of this study are to evaluate the impacts of climate change on three agricultural value chains, namely
red meat, horticulture and cassava, in the three southern Mozambican provinces of Maputo, Gaza
and Inhambane.
The methods used to assess the climate change impacts on the abovementioned agricultural value
chains included inter alia: i) a review of historical climatic and meteorological data; ii) analysis of
predicted climate change over the next 10 to 20 years based on CORDEX Regional Circulation Models
(RCMs); iii) analysis of current land use through remote sensing; iv) mapping of complex climate-
related risks and vulnerabilities within the target districts; v) appraisal of the exposure and sensitivity
of the respective agricultural value chains and ecosystems to climate hazards; and vi) identification
of appropriate adaptation responses.
The analysis of historical climate shows that maximum temperatures in the Inhambane and Gaza
provinces increased by an average of ~0.2 °C during the period 2000-2010. Within the same period,
average minimum temperature increased across Gaza province by up to 0.3-0.4°C relative to
historical baseline climate. Although the increases in average temperatures appear small, these
increases reflect an increase in the frequency of events such as extremely high temperatures and
heatwaves. Analysis of climate models indicate that maximum and minimum temperatures will
continue to increase during the next 10-20 year period. In addition to the observed and predicted
increase in average temperate, it is also predicted that Mozambique’s agriculture sector will be
affected by changes in rainfall as a result of climate change. Analysis of CORDEX RCMs predict that
the length of dry periods is increasing and that the length of the rainy season is shortening. These
predictions are supported by observations obtained through field interviews conducted with
farmers. In Maputo and Inhambane provinces, farmers report that the onset of the rainy season has
shifted and occurs relatively late compared to historical rainfall patterns, whereas farmers in Gaza
province report that the rainy season begins earlier than usual as a result of climate change. In all
provinces, farmers report that the cessation i.e. the end of the rainfall season is arriving relatively
earlier. Climate models project an increase in extreme rainfall.
Fieldwork undertaken in support of this study included interviews with various government
authorities and extension providers. These engagements provided valuable insights into some of the
challenges experienced by those providing technical services and advice to farmers. Interviews were
conducted with farming associations at the farm level and in some informal markets (including one
in Maputo). The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is based largely on the data and information
collected during this process. Information gathered during the fieldwork phase of this study found
evidence that climate change is already resulting in negative impacts on agricultural value chains. In
the horticultural value chain, high temperatures reduce the quality and market value of fresh
produce and increase spoilage. In the red meat value chain, high temperatures coupled with dry
periods and overstocking causes negative impacts on the health, condition and productivity of
livestock. Occurrence of insect-borne disesases is relatively high and may be exacerbated by
increased temperatures as well as limited access to veterinary services. The tendency to accumulate
livestock as a form of wealth increases the vulnerability of farmers to intense drought events, which
may cause significant loss of livestock and result in negative consequences for livestock-dependent
households, particularly in the country’s primary red meat production areas. Cassava production is

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also negatively affected by the changes in Mozambique’s climate conditions, including through the
increased prevalence of pests such as whitefly which are vectors of Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD).
The top priorities that emerge from the MCDA process mostly relate to improved infrastructure and
greater access and use of water. Water access is needed to irrigate horticulture, improve water
availability in the cassava value chain, and for watering of livestock. A key problem in all three of the
product value chains is the challenge of transporting perishable products to their various markets.
This challenge is partly due to a lack of infrastructure and facilities such as livestock slaughterhouses,
refrigeration and cold chain facilities for fresh goods, and post-harvest processing of cassava and
other staple crops. The development of such facilities and infrastructure is constrained by the
limited availability of electricity infrastructure. Infrastructure for processing allows for increased
production, earlier processing post-harvest, and better storage before sale. Electricity and
infrastructure are therefore key to being climate adaptive and increasing resilience to climate
change. The red meat value chain does not operate optimally or derive significant revenue for its
stakeholders. Animals tend to die during challenging climate conditions such as drought, and with
little capacity to reduce stock numbers during trying times, stock owners end up losing significant
wealth. When there is drought, and stock numbers are high, the grazing resources deplete at a faster
rate. Current practices of storing wealth in livestock numbers exacerbate this situation.
The horticultural and cassava value chains can be improved if farmers have more access to water
during times of need such that they are more climate adaptive and provide more income to farmers.
Farmers will also benefit if they are able to transport greater quantities of better quality produce
into the market system. The field work and MCDA outputs also indicate the benefits of crop
diversification, as it appears that competition in the value chains, especially in that of cassava,
results in low returns to the farmers. Vulnerability mapping provides some insights into the areas of
highest climate sensitivity. These are largely in the more arid western areas and show the highest
levels of degradation. Interventions are required in these areas as a matter of priority. The
interventions of PROSUL should prioritise those areas which have been identified by this study as
being the most vulnerable to climate change and related shocks.
Key recommendations include:
1. Focusing on the development of enabling infrastructure
2. Wherever possible, increase access to water for irrigation and livestock
3. Increase access to electrification for the establishment of facilities for processing and cold
storage, such as abattoirs with high standard slaughter protocols.
4. Promote access to low-cost options for control of disease vectors in livestock, such as
installation of spray races for cattle dipping
5. Promote/increase access to low-cost options for water-efficient drip-irrigation, especially where
boreholes are the main source of irrigation water.

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Contents
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................2
Recommended Citation: .........................................................................................................................2
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................3
1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................11
1.1. Overview of PROSUL.............................................................................................................11
1.1.1. PROSUL strategy............................................................................................................11
1.1.2. Institutional arrangements and government policy context........................................12
1.2. Aims and objectives of the Climate Change Thematic Study ...............................................12
1.3. Climate vulnerability of southern Mozambique...................................................................13
1.4. Introduction to the red meat, horticulture and cassava value chains..................................14
1.4.1. Red meat.......................................................................................................................14
1.4.2. Horticulture...................................................................................................................14
1.4.3. Cassava..........................................................................................................................14
1.5. Additional factors of consideration to the value chains.......................................................15
1.5.1. Gender issues................................................................................................................15
1.5.2. Land tenure...................................................................................................................15
2. Methodology.................................................................................................................................16
2.1. Field work..............................................................................................................................17
2.2. Climate analysis.....................................................................................................................17
2.3. Vulnerability mapping...........................................................................................................18
2.4. Multi-criteria decision analysis .............................................................................................18
2.5. Introduction to the Climate Analysis ....................................................................................19
2.6. Recent climate trends (1981-2014) ......................................................................................21
2.6.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................21
2.6.2. Rainfall ..........................................................................................................................22
2.6.3. Concluding remarks and summary findings of observed trends ..................................23
2.7. Future climate.......................................................................................................................27
2.7.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................27
2.7.2. Rainfall ..........................................................................................................................28
2.7.3. Concluding remarks and summary of findings of projected changes...........................29
3. Descriptions of the value chains...................................................................................................29
3.1. The red meat value chain......................................................................................................29

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3.1.1. Value chain environment..............................................................................................30
3.2. The horticultural value chain ................................................................................................34
3.3. The cassava value chain........................................................................................................38
4. Mapping of exposure to floods and drought................................................................................41
4.1. Definitions and approaches ..................................................................................................41
4.2. Drought exposure and loss of vegetation cover...................................................................42
4.2.1. Biophysical sensitivity of vegetation cover to drought.................................................43
4.2.2. Drought effects or over-grazing?..................................................................................44
4.2.3. Implications of exposure to drought.............................................................................46
4.3. Flooding.................................................................................................................................50
5. Applying a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis ..................................................................................51
5.1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................51
5.1.1. Linking the vulnerabilities in the value chains to adaptation options ..........................51
5.2. Multi-criteria decision analysis .............................................................................................51
5.2.1. The criteria....................................................................................................................52
5.2.2. Values used in each criterion and ranking score ..........................................................52
5.2.3. Results of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis..............................................................53
6. Adaptations in the value chains....................................................................................................64
6.1. Adaptations in the red meat value chain..............................................................................64
6.1.1. Climate risks and related pressures..............................................................................64
6.1.2. Adaptation priorities.....................................................................................................66
6.1.3. Geographical areas for prioritisation............................................................................66
6.2. Adaptations in the Horticulture value chain.........................................................................68
6.3. The cassava value chain........................................................................................................70
7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................74
7.1. Key recommendations..........................................................................................................75

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7.1.1. Promoting climate-resilient agriculture........................................................................75
7.1.2. Providing for knowledge management.........................................................................76
7.1.3. Developing capacity within CEPAGRI on a regional climate change agenda................77
8. References ....................................................................................................................................78
9. Appendices....................................................................................................................................80
9.1. Appendix A: Logical framework ............................................................................................80
9.2. Appendix B: Value chain analysis..........................................................................................84

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List of Figures
Figure 1: Annual mean total precipitation for each grid cell for the period 1981-2014. Data taken
from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [mm]....................................Erro! Marcador não definido.
Figure 2: Rainfall anomalies for each grid cell. Data taken from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [mm]Erro!
Marcador não definido.
Figure 3: Annual mean temperature for each grid cell for the period 1981-2014. Data taken from the
CRU TS3.23 dataset. Units [Celsius].......................................................................................24
Figure 4: Difference between decadal maximum mean temperature and maximum mean
temperatures for the entire period from 1981 to 2012 (a-c), decadal minimum mean
temperatures and minimum mean temperatures for the entire period from 1981 to 2012
(d-f). Data taken f m CRU TS3.23 dataset. Units [degree Celsius].........................................25
Figure 5: Climatological rainfall onset month (a) and cessation month (b), averaged for the period
1981 to 2014. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset........................................................25
Figure 6: Decadal mean annual rainfall onset (a) and cessation (b) trends for the period 1981 to
2014. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [days/decade]...................................26
Figure 7: Decadal trends in precipitation indices (table 1) over the period 1981 to 2014. Indices
shown at the top left and units in the top right. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset.
Stippling indicates regions where trends are significant at the 95% level............................26
Figure 8 Projected multi-model mean changes (in %) in precipitation indices (table 1) for the period
from 2036 to 2065 under RCP8.5 emission scenario, relative to the reference period from
1976 to 2005. Stippling indicates grid points with changes that are not significant at the
95% level................................................................................................................................29
Figure 9 Individual NDVI values per district over a range of years, indicating the progressive drying of
the region, especially the western parts...............................................................................45
Figure 10: Within-season NDVI comparisons for the districts of southern Mozambique, indicating
how close each district was to the medium-term average for January. Redder colours
indicate the largest deficits. ..................................................................................................48
Figure 11: The NDVI anomaly for January 2016 at the height of the drought, relative to the long-
term mean for Januarys (2001-2015). The gold colours represent drought impacts on near
natural vegetation, influenced by national parks. The orange and red colours represent the
drought and human impacts on vegetation cover................................................................49
Figure 12: Flooding hazard map of southern Mozambique, based on satellite images of historically
flooded areas, in relation to districts. Source: FEWS NET (2014).........................................50
Figure 13 Priority areas (Postos) for value chain interventions - red meat and horticulture...............67
Figure 14 The First to fourth order model/schema of climate impacts (Source: (Petrie et al., 2014). 77
List of Tables
Table 1: PROSUL project provinces and districts for the value chains of red meat, horticulture and
cassava (Source: PROSUL, 2016). ..........................................................................................11

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Table 2 Definitions of the indices of precipitation extremes used
(Sourcehttp://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml) ...........................................22
Table 3 The red meat value chain components and primary actors ...................................................32
Table 4 Climate influences on the red meat value chain.....................................................................33
Table 5 The horticulture value chain components and primary actors...............................................36
Table 6 Climate influences on the horticulture value chain. ...............................................................37
Table 7 The cassava value chain components and primary actors......................................................40
Table 8 Climate influences in the cassava value chain ........................................................................41
Table 4 Top 10 adaptation options, ranked from most important to least desirable, with
explanations of the criteria used to derive their position in the ranking table (not final). An
explanation of the evaluation scores is given in the main text. ...........................................................54
Acronyms
AOGCM Atmosphere Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models
ASAP Automatic Standard Application for Payments
CDD Consecutive Dry Days
CEPAGRI Centre for the Promotion of Agriculture
CMD Cassava Mosaic Disease
DADTCO Dutch Agricultural Development and Trading Company
DNEA National Directorate of Agriculture Extension
DUAT Direito de Uso e Aproveitamento de Terra (Right to use and Benefit from Land)
ENSO El Niño/Southern Oscillation
ETCCDI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices
FFS Farmer Field School
GCM Global Cirulation Models
Ha Hectares
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development
IFDC International Fertiliser Development Centre
IIAM Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research - Instituto de Investigação Agrária de
Moçambique
INAM National Institute of Meteorology
ITCZ Inter-tropical convergence zone
LAI Leaf Area Index
MASA Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security
MCDA Multi Criteria Decision Analysis
NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index
PRA Participatory Rapid Appraisal
PRCPTOT Total Annual Precipitation
PROSUL Pro-Poor Value Chain Development Project in the Maputo and Limpopo Corridors
R95pTOT Annual precipitation on very wet days (total of rainfalls above the 95th
percentile)

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RCM Regional Circulation Model
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
SDII Simple Day Intensity Index – the average rainfall of rainy days
SNV/ILRI A combination of SNV – the not-for-profit international development organisation
founded in the Netherlands and ILRI, the International Livestock Research Institute
SWIO South West Indian Ocean
WMO World Meteorological Organisation

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1. Introduction
The outcomes of this study are to provide solutions to the following: How can PROSUL mainstream
climate change into Centre for the Promotion of Agriculture CEPAGRI, promote climate-resilient
agriculture, provide for knowledge management and develop capacity within CEPAGRI on a regional
climate change agenda? The study develops an analysis of climate change based on observed and
modelled future climates, and field work to obtain data about the various value chains of red meat,
cassava and horticulture. Data obtained from this process informs a multi-criteria decision analysis
(MCDA) which attempts to prioritise the most effective and cost-beneficial adaptations that will
improve climate resilience.
1.1. Overview of PROSUL
PROSUL is a pro-poor agricultural value chain development project in the Maputo and Limpopo
corridors, within the Centre for the Promotion of Agriculture (CEPAGRI), which itself is a subsection
of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA). The objective of PROSUL is to sustainably
increase financial returns to smallholder farmers through higher production volumes, higher quality
product in the three value chains of horticulture, red meat and cassava, through improved market
linkages, more efficient farmer organisations, a higher farmer share of the final added value and
interventions on climate resilience, the implementation of land tenure and greater gender equity
(PROSUL, 2016). PROSUL has various funders, including the International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD), Spanish Trust Fund Loan, the ASAP Grant, Government of Mozambique and
other private investors and beneficiaries (PROSUL, 2016).
The target area for PROSUL’s projects is 19 districts in Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane provinces
(Table 1).
Table 1: PROSUL project provinces and districts for the value chains of red meat, horticulture and
cassava (Source: PROSUL, 2016).
Value Chain Province Districts
Red meat Maputo Manhiça; Magude
Gaza Chókwè; Guijá; Chicualacuala; Massingir; Mabalane
Horticulture Maputo Moamba; Marracuene; Namaacha; Boane
Gaza Xai-Xai; Manjacaze; Chókwè; Guijá; Chibuto
Cassava Gaza Manjacaze
Inhambane Zavala; Inharrime; Jangamo; Morrumbene; Massinga
1.1.1. PROSUL strategy
The general objective of the project of increasing incomes of farmers in the red meat, horticultural
(in the irrigation areas) and cassava value chains is to be done through technical assistance in
production, provision of support services for increasing that production and the quality of product,
increasing access to various markets, and through providing means for adaptation to challenging
climates (climate change), all with a particular focus on gender and especially women.

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Specifically,
 The improvement, rehabilitation and expansion of selected irrigation schemes;
 Strengthening of links between actors in the value chain; and
 Creating an enabling environment for the development of the value chains.
The aims and objective of the PROSUL project design documents, as well as the Terms of Reference
for this study, note that the PROSUL programme should have a climate resilience approach that is
private-sector driven, and should have market linkages (local markets – which have lower quality
barriers and can absorb production). It should also develop services (link smallholders with service
providers), promote sustainability of farmers organisations, increase returns to farmers and develop
innovative business models.
1.1.2. Institutional arrangements and government policy context
The PROSUL project takes place within the context of various government departments and line
functions, along with the associated policies. The government departments of concern in the
PROSUL context are the following:
PROSUL is the responsibility of the Centre for the Promotion of Agriculture (CEPAGRI) in the Ministry
of Agriculture (MASA). CEPAGRI is a public institution responsible for promoting commercial
agriculture and agro-industries. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA) – formerly
MINAG, is responsible for organising and ensuring the implementation of legislation and policies
concerning livestock, irrigation, agro-forestry plantations and food security as well as ensuring food
and nutritional security for the population. Other responsibilities include promoting inter-sectoral
coordination regarding the formulation, monitoring, evaluation and implementation of the policy
framework.
The government policies with which PROSUL is also particularly aligned include the Poverty
Reduction Action Plan (PARP), which is a policy for rural economic growth, and the Strategic Plan for
Agricultural Development (PEDSA), which has a goal to convert subsistence farming to market-
orientated agriculture that ensures food security for the country and improves farmers’ income. It
also aligns with the National Plan for Agribusiness Development (PNDA), as well as the Agricultural
Extension Master Plan (AEMP), also aimed at improving production, productivity and farmer
incomes.
Other government departments and policies of relevance to the PROSUL programme specifically
concerning climate change and agricultural production include: the Ministério da Terra, Ambiente e
Desenvolvimento Rura – MITADER (Ministry of Land, Environment and Rural Development –
formerly the Ministry of Environmental Coordination -MICOA), which is responsible for land use
planning and demarcation. Under this falls the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) on
climate change adaptation, and the National Plan for Agribusiness Development (PNDA). Also under
this ministry is the environmental fund Fundo Nacional do Ambiente (FUNAB), which was
established in 2000 as the National Implementing Entity (NIE) for the Adaptation Fund of the IPCC,
with the purpose of promoting sustainability and responding to climate change issues.

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1.2. Aims and objectives of the Climate Change Thematic Study
The objectives of this study, as set out in the PROSUL Terms of Reference, are to
1. Assess current land use and capability through remote sensing analytics,
2. Review climatic and meteorological historic data,
3. Assess potential impacts of climate change over the next 10 to 20 years,
4. Analyse the climate-related risks and vulnerabilities in the target districts,
5. Appraise the exposure and sensitivity of the value chain products and ecosystems to climate
hazards, and
6. Propose adaptation responses.
1.3. Climate vulnerability of southern Mozambique
The climate of the southern Mozambique interior ranges from arid to semi-arid, while the coastal
regions are subtropical, with higher humidity and annual rainfall and a marked seasonal rainfall
distribution. The whole region is subject to frequent droughts and is highly exposed to cyclones,
especially along the coast. Gaza Province has an aridity index of between 0.2–0.4: potential
evapotranspiration is more than double precipitation, indicating its general dryness. Drought is a
climate hazard experienced frequently across the region.
The dominant mode of climate variability in the region is closely related to El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean, with a pattern of negative correlation between net
photosynthesis (plant growth) and the El Niño phase of ENSO. This is especially strong in the lower
Limpopo River Basin (Williams and Hanan, 2011). During the El Niño (+ve) phase, rainfalls are usually
substantially lower than average, resulting in increased and extended periods of water stress in
plants, causing an inhibition of CO2 metabolism and decreasing plant growth and photosynthesis
(Tezara et al., 1999). However, the variations in the Indian Ocean, especially via the Indian Ocean
Dipole, also influence rainfall patterns either reinforcing the ENSO influence or cancelling it out. This
makes predictions of drought based on ENSO phase difficult and potentially hazardous to the people
of the region. In sum, too little is known about the combined influences and dynamics of these
climate-forcing ocean-atmosphere couplings.
Large amounts of rainfall occur occasionally over the mid and lower Limpopo River Basin as a result
of cyclones and tropical storms in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO), causing landfall over the
Mozambique coastline. Additionally, warm-cored low-pressure systems on the boundary of the
Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) create large systems of atmospheric convergence
(Engelbrecht et al., 2013) . The result is several days of torrential rain and regional flooding, which
can destroy crops1
. These events are also particularly devastating for subsistence livelihoods because
1
E.g. In 2001, Cyclone Leon-Eline, caused enormous damage to the livelihoods of people living on the Limpopo
flood plain and completely flooded the town of Chokwe, leading to the closure of businesses important to the
economy of the town.

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the floods occur mostly during the January to March late summer season when plants like maize are
in the seed-set stage, resulting in severe crop losses.
Despite the agriculturally rich soils of the flood plain, farming households are generally poor, have
small land holdings and are left in a state of desperation when the torrential rains – and related
flooding – result in the destruction of their crops. Poor roads are made worse during the wet season
and heavy rainfalls, increasing the isolation of some settlements. Transport routes to the major
markets are insufficient – for example, Mabalane is poorly integrated into the national economy.
The region is covered with a thick bush scrub, as well as a savannah ecosystem with grasses and
medium-height trees. The general aridity (mean annual rainfall ranges from 400–600 mm/year)
means that maize production is marginally viable in some places, but experiences a high failure rate
because of the variability of the climate.
1.4. Introduction to the red meat, horticulture and cassava value chains
Agriculture in the southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane is mostly constituted by the
red meat, horticultural and cassava value chains. While in specific areas these are the majority of
livelihood-supporting activities, in reality many households take part in more than one of the value
chains or activities. A short description of PROSUL interventions and expected outcomes in the
various value chains follows.
1.4.1. Red meat
The purpose of the PROSUL project with regards to the red meat value chain is to increase the
income to cattle, goat and sheep producers through improved production techniques and climate
smart actions, as well as better organised markets (PROSUL, 2016). The project plans to positively
impact 5600 smallholder ruminant producers. The lead service provider here is the SNV/ILRI
Consortium (PROSUL, 2016).
1.4.2. Horticulture
The purpose of the PROSUL project with regards to the horticulture value chain is to increase income
to smallholder farmers producing irrigated vegetables by increasing the productivity (volume and
efficiency) and quality of vegetables for both domestic and commercial market segments (PROSUL,
2016). Key components of the project include rehabilitating 2100 hectares of irrigable land or
previously irrigated land that has now fallen into disrepair or been damaged in severe floods, and
additionally, improving linkages with the various value chain stakeholders such as traders and the
market segments. The objective is to positively impact 4800 smallholder farmers. The Lead Service
Provider is the Gapi-SI/Novedades Agricolas.
1.4.3. Cassava
Cassava - otherwise known as manioc or manihot esculenta - is a perennial shrub of South America
of the Euphorbiaceae family and is a major source of carbohydrates for many millions of people (El-
Sharkawy, 2004). It is the third largest source of carbohydrates in the tropics after rice and maize.
Its value stems from its drought tolerance and ability to grow on poor soils – which admirably fits the
description of parts of southern Mozambique (PROSUL, 2016).

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The purpose of the PROSUL project with regards to the cassava value chain is to increase the quality
of the product and yield (PROSUL, 2016). This will be done by i) introducing improved varieties of
cassava, ii) strengthening farmer organisations, iii) promoting outgrower schemes, and iv) improving
farmers’ access to support services. The project plans to positively impact 8000 smallholder farmers
with a cultivation area of ~2800 hectares (PROSUL, 2016). The Lead Service Provider in this value
chain is the SNV/Mahlahle Consortium. The target areas in the cassava value chain tend to be far
from markets, thus the marketing and commercial aspects of the product are less important than
improving the food security of households in those districts where PROSUL is implementing the
cassava value chain.
1.5. Additional factors of consideration to the value chains
The sensitivity of the value chains to climate change is affected by other issues that concern the
stakeholders within these value chains, particularly gender and land tenure. Separate thematic
studies have been conducted to understand the implications of gender and land tenure issues on
PROSUL activities and planning.
1.5.1. Gender issues
While important progress has been made on increasing the political representation of women, as
well as improving access to education and health, less progress has been made on improving the
socio-economic status of women, including levels of employment, agricultural productivity and
income in Mozambique (Tvedten, 2011). Gender inequality in Mozambique results in increased
vulnerability to environmental challenges such as severe climatic variability – women do not have
access to the same resources as men do, which has implications for the climate resilience of the
family unit. A gendered response to climate change and development challenges is therefore
necessary, as it has been shown that increasing the social and economic standing of women results
in increased wealth of households. Additionally, it has been shown elsewhere (for example in
Zambia) that women tend to introduce changes to agricultural methods, such as adaptations to
climate change, faster than men (Arslan et al., 2013).
1.5.2. Land tenure
In Mozambique, all land is owned by the state. Land use rights can however be held by people and
organisations. The regularisation of land tenure and land registration is the purpose of the Direito de
Uso e Aproveitamento de Terra or DUAT (Right to use and Benefit of Land). DUATs are necessary
because of increasing competition for land. Land grabbing in some areas has led to the loss of
livelihoods by local communities. There is also a significant problem around land access and
production efficiency. People with large amounts of land held under DUAT have a higher efficiency

16
and production than people with small land rights2
. The lack of land tenure and access to land are
issues that are likely to increase the sensitivity of people and farming systems to climate change.
2. Methodology
Restating the objectives, this study reviews climatic meteorological historic data and assesses the
potential impacts of climate change over the next 10 to 20 years. These are addressed in the climate
analysis section below. The study also assesses current land uses through remote sensing analytics
and analyses the climate-related risks and vulnerabilities in the target districts. This is contained in a
separate section using Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) mapping to determine the
amount of greenness and vegetation in the landscape and uses various techniques to determine the
amount of change due to drought and to human agency.
The study then describes and appraises the exposure and sensitivity of the value chain products and
ecosystems to climate hazards. The report does this by providing a description of each value chain,
which was conducted through fieldwork. It examines the exposure of each stage of each value chain
to climate hazards, and their sensitivity to these hazards. It uses quantitative data where possible
and qualitative assessments where only such information is available. It examines the socio-
economic system around each value chain for constraints imposed by climatic variation, which may
enhance the sensitivity of the value chain to climate hazards and therefore increase vulnerability.
The details of these methods are provided below. Finally, it provides recommendations on reducing
both the sensitivity of the value chains to climate hazards and, where possible, reducing exposure to
such hazards. The study uses a ranking system to classify the importance of each possible
adaptation.
The final objective of this report is to produce a list of adaptation options that are climatically
resilient that will serve the PROSUL objectives of increasing smallholder farmer income. The study
takes the form of an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on specific agricultural
value chains in the context of existing and emerging development challenges in the region. The
adaptation options are developed from examining exposures, sensitivities and inefficiencies in the
value chains especially as they pertain to climatic and other environmental conditions.
2
If someone used a particular piece of land for more than 10 years, they become the rightful holder of the DUAT for that
plot without further consideration, although the owner of the land is still the state. Threats of loss of land are already in
place – there is competition between communities and also outside investors who “grab the land”. DUATs serve to
provide a legal basis for protecting and maintaining sole rights of use to parcels of land. DUAT holders may go into
partnership with outside investors, however, meaning that the benefits of the use of the land can also flow to the investor.
This may introduce conflict over land-use rights at times when it becomes unclear how the benefits of the use of the land
many be apportioned. Investors however bring benefits of the introduction of improved technology, higher production
and improved yields.

17
The report does not go into detail on services provided by the government, for example, except
where they might be affected by climate. Exposure and sensitivities in the value chains are identified
by data collection exercises, which are field trips to the region to meet different stakeholders in the
system, as well as the undertaking of remote research such as extracting and evaluating general
circulation model (GCM) and downscaled Regional Circulation model (RCM) results. This includes
remotely sensed changes in vegetation cover that result from drought and human influences, and
flood extent, relating to extreme events. The different sections of this report address all of the
above components. The methodology chosen to assess these goals is described below.
2.1. Field work
Field work has been an important method of collecting the relevant information for this thematic
study. Two field trips have been held to date. The ACDI expert team was accompanied by PROSUL
team members and had the benefit of their project experience.
The first field trip involved meeting with PROSUL personnel, project service providers responsible for
the liaising between PROSUL and farmer groups and other agricultural role players within target
areas. The team also gathered data for the vulnerability map and climate change vulnerability
assessment. Data-collection meetings held in the capital on this first field trip included:
 Mr Anacleto João Chibochuane Duvane, Director Nacional Adjunto, Instituto Nacional De
Meteorologia regarding access to climate data.
 Ms Etelvina da Conceicao Mazalo, Chefe do Gabinete de Estudos e Difusão, CENACARTA (Centro
Nacional de Cartografia e Teledetecçäo) regarding access to GIS data for different layers that
would go into vulnerability mapping and other aspects of mapping.
 Mr Inãcio Nhancale, Direcçäo Nacional de Extensão Agrãria (DNEA) regarding the national context
of agriculture and the design and uptake of extension services.
 Mr António Mavie, Gestor Técnico Nacional FEWS NET, Moçambique regarding available data on
crops and pricing movements in food markets, and general household vulnerability.
The second field trip was devoted to obtaining farmer inputs to the data collection process, which
required visits to individual farming communities and consultations with those farmers on their
challenges. Farming communities were visited in the following places:
 Marracuene;
 Lunane – Xai Xai;
 Chidenguele – Manjacza;
 Josina Machel – Inharreme;
 Hoyo Hoyo – Mabelane; and
 Island Josina Machele – Manhiça.
2.2. Climate analysis

18
A climate analysis evaluated the following:
 Historical trends in selected climate parameters across the three provinces and districts in which
PROSUL has projects;
 Projected trends of these same parameters based on regional circulation models (RCMs);
 The differences in the projected trends from historical trends, which is the indicated change in
the selected parameters;
 Mapping of these parameter differences; and
 The likely impacts of these changes on the 3 value chains.
2.3. Vulnerability mapping
Vulnerability mapping is required to spatially assess which value chains have a higher vulnerability to
climate hazards in particular areas than in others. The results will allow PROSUL to target particular
areas for investments that reduce specific climate vulnerabilities, and also help to avoid investments
that could be compromised by the effects of climate change.
Vulnerability is a state of being open to an injury or harm, which can have a variety of causes. These
include physical, social, economic and political factors. Sensitivity is the degree to which a hazard
affects something or someone. To be vulnerable is, therefore, to be both exposed to a hazard and to
be sensitive to that hazard.
People or systems are more sensitive to a stressor when they are affected by small changes in
exposures. Multiple underlying stresses can make an individual or a social-ecological system more
sensitive to exposure to a hazard than might normally be expected. For example, plants stressed by
a lack of soil moisture or high temperatures become more sensitive when exposed to disease
pathogens. Sensitivity can also have a time dimension, in which the degree of sensitivity varies
seasonally, annually or inter-annually, for example, sensitivity to drought.
Mapping experts and climate change experts mapped hazards in relation to the location of assets
(for example, the exposure of farmland to floods), and also mapped sensitivity to specific hazards.
Vulnerability maps are produced for each of the value chains by integrating the projected climate
changes, which includes spatial changes in rainfall and temperature, along with flood zones and the
sensitivity of biomass production in rangeland/grassland as a function of the quantity of rainfall in
the growing season. AHVRR / NDVI maps of rangeland cover are given in a later section as an
indicator of vegetation cover and the flood zone is developed as another set of vulnerability zoning
for flooding using observed data.
2.4. Multi-criteria decision analysis
Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a useful tool for evaluating possible interventions when the
context is complex and there are many possible courses of action. The basic approach of MCDA is to
divide decisions into smaller, understandable parts, analyse each of these parts and then integrate
these parts into meaningful solutions.
We take this approach by looking at the key influences on each of the value chains - adaptations to
climate change should not be made in the absence of consideration of other necessary pressures on

19
each of the value chains. This MCDA tests the long list of adaptation options through a process of
discussion and assessment, rating each adaptation option based on a set of agreed-upon criteria (for
example, cost-effectiveness, cultural appropriateness, etc). Our evaluation is then based on a rating
of alternatives, considering the various evaluations, discussions, re-ratings of the various options and
then the establishment of decision options.
Ideally, the criteria should be decided upon with relevant national stakeholders so that the process
of arriving at recommended options is clear and those affected have had a part in developing the
solutions. The PROSUL team is taking part in validating the adaptation options and the outcomes of
this process may modify the rankings and outcomes in this report somewhat.
2.5. Introduction to the Climate Analysis
Mozambique is situated on the southeast coast of Africa between 10°S and 27°S. The majority of the
country is located in the inter-tropical zone which experiences a predominantly maritime climate.
The southern parts of Mozambique are characterized by distinct wet and dry seasons and
experience a high degree of inter-annual variability of precipitation, with a mean annual rainfall
ranging from 300 to 1000 mm/year. Figure 1 shows the annual total rainfall variability over southern
Mozambique. The east to west gradient of decreasing vegetation cover corresponds to the east to
west rainfall gradient of decreasing rainfall, along with an increasing coefficient of variation. The
driest areas lie in the western interior of Gaza province. Seasonally, the principle controls on
precipitation are the north/south migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ
forms when the north-east airflow from the East Africa monsoon meets the south easterly trade
winds off the Indian Ocean. Heavy rainfall is caused both by tropical depression formation as well
the passage of tropical cyclones. The weather and climate features are modulated from year to year
by the main modes of natural tropical climate variability, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) (Gaughan, et.al. 2015). El Niño and La Niña events are natural variations in the climate
system and occur on average every 4-7 years, but ENSO and its impacts display significant variability
on decadal time scales (Power and Colman, 2006). The negative phase of ENSO, which is El Niño,
usually results in drier conditions over southern Mozambique (Manhique et al., 2011). Another
mode of variability that affects summer rainfall in the region is the subtropical South Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD) (Reason, 2001). IOD consists of sea-surface temperature (SST) of opposite sign in the
Southwest and southeast India Ocean. When the SST is warm (cool) in the southwest Indian Ocean
and cool (warm) in the southeast Indian Ocean, increased (decreased) summer rainfall may occur
over the region (Reason, 2001).
Figure 2 illustrates typical variations of rainfall from the annual mean from 1981 to 2014. Annual
rainfall is calculated from July to June in order to represent the austral (southern hemisphere)
summer rainfall season. There is also high variability both among years with above normal rainfall
and among years with below normal rainfall. For example, in 1991/92, southern Africa including
Mozambique experienced one of the longest droughts which had extensive socio-economic impacts
(e.g. Vogel and Drummond 1993). And in 1999/2000 it experienced the worst flooding events in
many decades which left over 700 people dead and half a million homeless (Dyson and van Heerden,
2001). Figure 3 shows the annual mean temperature. The south of the country experiences a mean
temperature range of between 20-26°C.

20
Figure 1: Annual mean total precipitation for each grid cell for the period 1981-2014. Data taken
from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [mm]

21
Figure 2: Rainfall anomalies for each grid cell for rainfall data from 1981-2014. Data were taken
from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [mm]
This chapter provides a trend analysis of historical climate data and downscaled rainfall projections
over southern Mozambique. Projections of temperature change from the various sources discussed
(Section 2.7) do not show the range of variations of rainfall during the downscaling process,
especially as altitudinal changes across the study region are small. Temperature changes are taken as
is from the GCM ensembles. The historical trend analysis reviews the period 1981-2014, while
projections focus on the 2036-2065 period under a high level emission scenario (RCP 8.5). For the
historical analysis, we have used two observed gridded data sets, CRU TS (monthly temperature
statistics) and CHIRPS (daily rainfall) respectively. The results of this analysis of historical
temperature data show a clear warming trend. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were
warmer, on average in the decade of 2000s. An analysis of extreme climate indices suggests that
rainfall is becoming more intense, yet with longer dry-spell durations in between. There are also
indications of a later onset of the rainfall season and an earlier cessation of rain, reflecting an overall
shortening of the rainfall season. We have used dynamically downscaled data from the Coordinated
Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for developing the future climate projections. Under a high-
emission scenario (RCP8.5 – which is what the world is currently tracking), projections indicate that
towards mid-century (2036-2065), the number of rainfall events may increase. This is coupled with
longer dry spell periods, indicating that rainfall may become more concentrated and intense into the
future.
2.6. Recent climate trends (1981-2014)
Studies of recent historical changes in climate in Africa, including Mozambique, are hampered by the
availability of meteorological station data. Gridded products based on satellite derived precipitation
estimates or merged satellite data and station observations are an alternative, provided their
accuracy is well known. Due to these constraints in observational weather station data, rainfall and
temperature data from Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 3.21, Harris et al., 2014) and Climate Hazards
Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS, Peterson et al., 2013) are used to study the
historical changes. The CRU TS data is made up of monthly time series of various climate variables,
which include maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The data, which is based on over
4000 global weather stations, is available for the period 1901-2014 and is gridded to 0.5 x 0.5 degree
spatial resolution. The CHIRPS data, on the other hand, comprises daily rainfall data only. It is a
combination of satellite and weather station rainfall data and is available for the period 1981-2014,
gridded to 0.05 x 0.05 degree spatial resolution. Historical trends are calculated using linear
regression for each grid point for both CHIRPS and CRU datasets. The Mann-Kendall test was then
used to evaluate the statistical significance of trends at 95% confidence level. Statistical significance
implies that the result is unlikely to have occurred by chance. A lack of statistical significance does
not imply that changes have not occurred, but rather that they are most likely a result of
randomness rather than an underlying process.

22
2.6.1. Temperature
Figure 4 shows the difference between the mean (maximum and minimum) decadal (10 years)
temperature and the mean (maximum and minimum) temperature over the 1981 to 2012 period at
each grid cell from the CRU data set. Here one can clearly detect a warming signal, as all locations
were warmer, on average, in the 2000s than in the 1980s. However, it is also apparent that in some
locations more recent decades maximum temperatures have been cooler than preceding decades;
for example, Maputo province was cooler in the 1990s and 2000s than in the 1980s (Fig 4 a-c).
Maximum temperatures have increased by 0.2 °C and minimum temperature as increased by 0.2-
0.3°C in the 2000s over Inhambane and Gaza provinces. Tadross (2009), using station data across
Mozambique since 1960 to 2005 also found that temperatures have increased over most of the
country. Caution is required with the CRU data because in recent decades it does not have the
benefit of sufficiently dense ground station data with which to provide high confidence in accuracy.
Nevertheless, this is the best data available.
2.6.2. Rainfall
Rainfall related climate hazards are associated not just with seasonal mean rainfall, but also with
extreme weather events. It is, therefore, necessary to consider a number of different rainfall indices.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Climatology and the Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) have developed a set of 27 indices based on daily
temperature and precipitation. Of these, the six indices that are based on daily precipitation are
used for the study of rainfall characteristics over the region. These indices or statistics are described
in Table 1.
Table 2: Definitions of the indices of precipitation extremes used
(Sourcehttp://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml)

23
Figure 5 shows the climatological rainfall onset and cessation month for the region based on CHIRPS
dataset. Onset and cessation are defined from anomalous rainfall accumulation in a given day
[A(day)] as:
( ) ∑ ( )
Where R(n) is the daily rainfall and Rs is the long-term (1981-2014) daily mean (Liebmann et al.,
2007). The calculations used 1 July as the starting date, which is, climatologically, the driest month.
The date on which this sum [A(day), or anomalous accumulation] is a minimum is the date of onset,
while the date of the maximum sum marks the rainy season withdrawal. This method is both
objective and defined locally - that is, based on the climate of the area of interest.
Over Maputo province, rainfall starts in November while over Gaza and Inhambane it starts in the
following month of December. The cessation of rainfall over Gaza and Inhambane is in February
while over Maputo it is in February and March. For the period of 1981-2014, rainfall onset has
shown an increase in days, i.e., starting late by 5-15 days per decade over southern Maputo and
parts of Inhambane province (Figure 6) (note – the values of 5-15 days per decade is the response
only for the period of data viewed and does not imply a stable trend). In most of Gaza province
rainfall onset has shown a decrease of about 10-25 days per decade, which means that there is a
trend towards an earlier start of rainfall season. Over most of Maputo and parts of Gaza the rainfall
onset has shown a trend toward an earlier cessation of about 10-25 days, which means that the
rainfall season is getting shorter. In other regions of southern Mozambique, there is a trend towards

24
a later cessation. Over southern Inhambane, rainfall cessation showed a trend of occurring earlier at
about of 20-38 days per decade over the relatively short record of the data.
Figure 7 shows decadal trends in rainfall indices (see table 1) over the period 1981 to 2014. Stippling
indicates grid points where trends are significant at the 95% level. Over much of the region, the
number of consecutive dry days (CDD) has shown an increase of about 20 to over 100 days per
decade, with significant trends along the coast of Inhambane. On the contrary, total annual
precipitation (PRCPTOT) shows an increasing trend from 20 to over 100 mm per decade over
Inhambane and most of Gaza. Over Maputo, PRCPTOT shows a southward decrease trend with more
than 100 mm per decade in the far south. The number of rain days with precipitation above 20 mm
(R20mm) follows the same pattern of PRCPTOT with increases and decreases of 5 days per decade.
In general, the annual total precipitation on very wet days (R95pTOT) and annual maximum five-day
precipitation (Rx5day) show an increasing trend over Inhambane and Gaza and decreasing trend
over much of Maputo. The same pattern of the trend is also found for rainfall intensity (SDII) with
significant later cessation trends in most of Inhambane. SDII is the Simple Day Intensity Index,
which is the ration of annual rainfall to the number of days during the year in which rainfall
occurred, or the average rainfall of rainy days.
2.6.3. Concluding remarks and summary findings of observed trends
 Maximum temperatures have increased by 0.2 °C over most of Inhambane and Gaza province in
the decade of 2000s, based on observations.
 Minimum temperatures have increased across the region, with Gaza province experiencing the
highest increase of 0.3-0.4°C.
 Projections suggest that maximum and minimum temperatures will continue to increase.
 Changes in rainfall are much harder to detect due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of
the rainfall pattern. However, results suggested that rainfall characteristics have changed in the
past. An overall increase in the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) was observed across the
region. The pattern of changes in the wet indices is similar, with increases in Gaza and
Inhambane province and decreases in Maputo Province.
 The onset of the rainy season has shifted to later dates over southern Maputo and parts of
Inhambane Province, while in most of Gaza province it has started earlier, according to the data.
 Over Maputo Province, rainfall cessation has shifted to an earlier time, with both later onset and
earlier cessation suggesting a shortening of the rainfall season.

25
Figure 3: Annual mean temperature for each grid cell for the period 1981-2014. Data taken from
the CRU TS3.23 dataset. Units [Celsius].
Figure 4: Difference between decadal maximum mean temperature and maximum mean
temperatures for the entire period from 1981 to 2012 (a-c), decadal minimum mean temperatures
and minimum mean temperatures for the entire period from 1981 to 2012 (d-f). Data were taken
from CRU TS3.23 datasets. Units [degree Celsius].

26
Figure 5: Climatological rainfall onset month (a) and cessation month (b), averaged for the period
1981 to 2014. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset.
Figure 6: Decadal mean annual rainfall onset (a) and cessation (b) trends for the period 1981 to
2014. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset. Units [days/decade].

27
Figure 7: Decadal trends in precipitation indices (table 1) over the period 1981 to 2014. Indices
shown at the top left and units in the top right. Based on data from the CHIRPS dataset. Stippling
indicates regions where trends are significant at the 95% level.
2.7. Future climate
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary source of information on possible changes to
large scale circulation patterns and, in the case of Atmosphere Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs),
corresponding changes in the global ocean systems. However, AOGCMs typically only resolve the
global atmosphere at scales of several hundreds of kilometres as computational constraints current
restrict the simulation of higher resolutions for the long simulation periods required for climate
change studies. As a result, dynamical downscaling models called Regional Circulation Models (RCM)
are sometimes used to simulate a small spatial domain at much finer resolutions (50km or finer).
The intent of dynamical downscaling is to resolve local scale climate features caused by topography,
land surface variations (eg. forests or lakes), coastlines, etc. as well as potentially better simulate
smaller scale weather events such as extreme convective rainfall events. Because they resolve finer
spatial scales, they often can simulate the local climate more accurately (compared with
observations) than GCMs and so could be considered more reliable or accurate. However, RCMs are
always driven by GCMs so any biases or errors present in the driving GCM will impact the
performance of the RCM. Also, even RCMs make many simplifications and cannot resolve the very
fine scales (such as cities) so suffer from many of the same limitations as GCMs. It is for this reason
that both GCM projections and downscaled RCM (or statistically downscaled) projections should be
considered when exploring future climate projections for a region. The GCM projections should be

28
used to inform our thinking about large scale regional changes while the RCMs may provide
information on more local scale responses in areas of complex topography, along coastlines, or with
regards to extreme events.
For the analyses of climate change projections over the region, data from two Regional Circulation
Models (RCMs, - COSMO-CLM and RCA4) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX) are used – the only data available at the time of the analysis. The two RCMs were each
used to downscale the output from four GCMs (MPI-ESM-LR, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, and EC-
EARTH), resulting in an eight-member ensemble of downscaled climate projections over the study
region of southern Africa. All simulations were performed at a grid resolution of 0.44°x 0.44°, giving
grid spaces of approximately 50 km over the Africa domain. The RCM projections are forced by the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, Moss et al. (2010)). The RCPs are prescribed
greenhouse-gas concentration pathways (emission scenarios) throughout the 21st century,
corresponding to different radiative forcing stabilization levels by the year 2100. For this study the
RCP8.5 was used, which represents a high-level emission scenario and “business as usual” scenario.
RCP8.5 corresponds to a rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2 in year 2100,
equivalent to ~ 1370 parts per million (ppm) CO2 (Moss et al., 2010).
2.7.1. Temperature
Under the RCP 8.5 scenarios, global mean temperatures are projected to rise from 2.6°-4.8°C under
RCP8.5 by 2081- 2100, compared to the climate of 1986-2005. In the south-eastern part of Africa,
temperatures will also increase, but slower than the global mean, especially closer to the coast
(Niang et al., 2014). Inland and in the drier areas, temperatures are expected to increase faster than
the global mean. These projected results are robust, meaning that several different sources agree
on the sign and quantum of change, comparing with the 5th
Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC and
CORDEX (see for example Dosio and Panitz, 2016). Hot days and heat waves are projected to
become more frequent and cold days less frequent (IPCC, 2007). Niang et al. (2014) and Tadross
(2009), using statistical downscaling of 7 GCMs under the old special report on emission scenario A2
(SRES) “business as usual” found that minimum and maximum temperature are projected to
increase over the period 2046-2065 compared to 1960-2000. Mean temperatures are expected to
rise by 1.5-3 °C.
2.7.2. Rainfall
Global patterns of projected changes in rainfall are much less spatially uniform than projected
warming. Rainfall is generally projected to increase at high latitudes and near the equator and
decrease in regions of the sub-tropics, although regional changes may differ from this pattern (IPCC,
2007). Figure 8 shows the multi-model ensemble mean of projected changes in the climate indices
(see Table 1) under RCP8.5, at annual timescales for the period of 2036 to 2065 relative to 1976 to
2005. Changes that are not significant at the 5% significance level are indicated by stippling. As
reflected in the figure there is a projected increase in CDD over southern Mozambique of about 20%,
although not statistically significant. PRCPTOT is also projected to increase by 0-10% over most of
Inhambane and parts of Gaza.

29
On the contrary, rainfall is projected to decrease over Maputo and southern Inhambane and other
parts of Gaza. R20mm is projected to increase over most parts of southern Mozambique by about
10%. There is a general increase in the wet indices (R95pOTOT, Rx5day), with statistically significant
changes. These changes, which are accompanied by projected increases in SDII. The projections are
thus suggesting that in the future most of southern Mozambique may experience an increase in
overall intensity of heavy rainfall events with longer consecutive dry days (CDCD).
Figure 8: Projected multi-model mean changes (in %) in precipitation indices (table 1) for the
period from 2036 to 2065 under RCP8.5 emission scenario, relative to the reference period from
1976 to 2005. Stippling indicates grid points with changes that are not significant at the 95% level.
2.7.3. Concluding remarks and summary of findings of projected changes
 Temperature means are expected to rise about 2.6 – 4.8 °C and above over the longer term to
end-of-century in the inland areas – for example of Gaza Province, but at lower rates of 1.5 – 3.0
°C over the coastal regions.
 This means in the next 10-20 years, mean temperatures will rise ~ 0.5 – 1.0 °C, with an increase
over that time span of 5 – 10 more heatwaves at the end of the 20 year period.
 More hot days and hot nights will be experienced across the region.
 What this means at local levels are a greater number of temperature extremes, i.e. the
frequency of temperature anomalies (really hot days) will increase.
 Changes in the characteristics of rainfall are expected to continue into the future, with an
increase in rainfall extremes and increases of consecutive dry days over most parts of southern
Mozambique.

30
 The total annual change in rainfall is inconclusive from the modelling, but there will be more
consecutive dry days.
 There are no models available that will assist with the forecast on possible changes in cyclone
frequency and intensity.
 The likely climate changes with the most impact are temperature increases.
 A more detailed analysis of climate changes could have been undertaken if local meteorological
datasets from INAM had been made available to the study team.
3. Descriptions of the value chains
3.1. The red meat value chain
The key characteristics of the red meat value chain (which includes cattle, goats and sheep) in
southern Mozambique are:
 A cultural tendency to retain animals instead of developing a throughput of livestock and
revenue generation.
 Livestock lose condition during drought and high mortality rates from disease then result.
 Poor productivity and reduced off-take occur as a result of low access to services (veterinary,
breeding, communication, extension and credit).
 A lack of incentive to sell at poorly organised markets.
 There is a lack of pasture, especially in the months of August, September and October (before
the start of the rainy season), with very little supplementary feeding.
 Stocking densities are too high for sustainable pasture management and this is indicated by
substantial losses in vegetation cover during severe drought (see Section5 on the exposure and
sensitivity analysis using NDVI imagery to assess drought and human influence impacts).
 There is limited access to water, which increases animal stress and requires travelling long
distances between available grazing and water sources, with a resultant loss in animal condition.
 Floods, which restrict the movement of animals.
3.1.1. Value chain environment
Mozambique remains a net meat importer and as of 2014 (the latest data available), the country
imported US$ 600,000 of meat products from South Africa, from where it obtains most of its meat
import products (UNCTAD, 2016). The locally sourced animals are lower-value than those grown by
South African large-scale commercial operations, which can invest in access to good quality
feedstock, veterinary resources, feedlots, good pasture management and yield, and breeding
programmes that produce high-yields with fewer animals.
Within the study area, it is clear that the red meat value chain is not vertically integrated in any way,
in that there is no systematic chain from producers to the market. Farmers tend to sell on an ad hoc
basis according to needs and the infrastructure needed to cater for these sales and different stages
in the value chain is limited.

31
The primary areas of production have soils of low nutrient status, which results in low fertility and
less favourable pasture growth and exacerbated by overgrazing, results in poor quality pasture
forage as feed and reducing growth rates of livestock which graze on it. Markets and trading
channels are relatively limited; only a few animals a week (on average) are traded (in total, or within
a community) and the limited quantity coming onto the market limits access to markets by
producers because of the lower frequency of traders who need higher numbers for efficient
transport. This also limits incentives for commercialisation and investment. This situation creates a
relative isolation, which was exemplified by the observed conditions at Mabalane. There are also
gaps among value chain actors in the larger markets., that is, small producers are not making sales
into the higher-income urban centres, which are mostly supplied by imported meat from South
Africa (UNCTAD, 2016).
The situation at Mabelane is an example that is likely repeated elsewhere across the three
provinces, in various forms. The outlying village of Hoyo Hoyo lies at the end of a rugged unpaved
track 35kms north of the small town of Mabelane. While this area is near the Limpopo River, it is in
a low rainfall area, with thicket scrub – i.e. a dry eutrophic savannah – dense arid sand thicket and
woodland, dominated by multi-stemmed short trees, which serves as grazing and browse resource.
In areas of settlement, significant areas have been cleared of vegetation entirely, exposing large
amounts of soil (topsoils have long gone or are non-existent) to rainfall, leading to severe erosion
and sediment transfer along gullies. There is substantial evidence of high sediment loads in the
streamlines and high levels of overland flow from heavy rainfall. Travel and communications through
this land type are difficult and time-consuming because such roads are single tracks with no
construction features, except for a single culvert across a substantial gulley. Passage along this road
during a period of heavy rainfall is impossible, according to locals. Floods and droughts affect this
area; while crops are grown on the flood plain, pastures include the remainder of the scrub thicket
zone. The simultaneous failure of crops and livestock production is relatively frequent and the
community is vulnerable to climatic extremes.
In this community, animals are being sold as a result of the hunger induced by the 2015-2016
drought – household food stores were observed to be empty, with little prospect of new stores in
the short term. Cattle farming is not a business but more of a cultural activity and as a store of
wealth, however, the people would like it to be a business. Animal productivity in the area is low –
there is little pasturage – and some areas area completely overgrazed. Most (if not all) households
that own cattle also own goats – it would be unlikely to find a household which owned only goats.
While the farmers would rather sell cattle, households prefer to own cattle, goats less so.
Additionally, animal traction for ploughing is important for the cultivation along the banks of the
Limpopo River.
Pricing and market performance of animal sales is a source of tension within the community and its
relationship to stock traders. Interviewees noted that if a willingness to sell is displayed or evident,
the price that is offered per animal is driven down to about to 6000Mts per animal. At a cattle fair,
better prices can be achieved, roughly 10,000 – 12,000Mts. This does not pertain everywhere and
indicates the current crisis with which the community is faced. At the Island Josina Machele
community in Manhiça district, which is coastal and has a higher rainfall, lower temperatures and
more grazing potential, farmers would obtain about 18,000 to 20,000 Mts for an animal, depending

32
on size and weight before a scale was installed. Now, as a result of the scale presenting impartial
evidence to both seller and buyers, the farmers can obtain up to 32,000 Mts per head, according to
feedback from the community.
During the rainy season, there is a problem getting animals to the cattle fairs because the poor road
conditions and strongly flowing streams prevent movement. Animals are sold during seasons of poor
crop production as well as during productive seasons. The study site at Josina Machele provides a
useful example of other red meat-producing areas in the more coastal regions. Generally, the
community prefers to sell young bulls as the mode of sale. The biggest difficulties are the distance
to the market and not having water available for stock watering – meaning stock must be driven
from far (up to 18km one-way trek for water), with constant trekking from grazing to watering and
back again, which reduces livestock vigour. From Hoyo Hoyo to the next village is a cattle drive of
2hrs if a cattle fair is located there, to Mabelane it takes 20–30 hrs to get cattle there by hoof.
Various diseases of livestock abound, common symptoms include blood in urine, which possibly
indicates the presence of Babesiosis (redwater/ Texas cattle fever). Mortality of cattle increases
during times of stress, especially during drought. Animal mortality decreases with interventions
from animal health specialists. A new disease is apparently affecting cattle skins but can be treated
well if caught early. Grazing is affected by the excessive heat and there are few watering points in
the Mabelane area, which means much time must be spent moving animals between watering
points and grazing. The heat affects milk production, although these are not dairy cows (which
would be affected even more). As a result, milk production is very low. Milk on sale in shops is
imported from South Africa.
The focus in this area should be on production and yield. The introduction of new races/improved
stock will help with productivity. One option for increasing income from livestock farming is to use
more small stock – goats. These animals are the most important source of meat domestically and
can achieve 1500Mts per animal with traders. More frequent sales of smaller animals that are quite
tolerant of higher temperatures and relative poor pasture could increase income for the livestock
farmers.
Transport is, however, a big problem – cattle currently have to be driven to market 35kms away,
arriving in poor condition, having lacked water for the journey and resulting in lower prices. A
livestock scale has been installed at Mabelane but was not working at the time of the field visit,
caused by a mechanical problem. The abattoir here also does not have electricity and therefore
does not have carcass cooling and refrigeration facilities. Only a few animals are slaughtered at a
time because of the need to quickly move the stock before the carcass deteriorates in the hot and
humid conditions, which would result in a substantial loss to the farmer or owner of the carcass.
This lack of suitable infrastructure reduces the throughput of whatever rudimentary facilities do
exist and the result also reduces the abilities of the farmers to envisage a higher rate of animal
movement to markets and beyond.
Table 3: The red meat value chain components and primary actors
Value Chain Actors

33
Component (primary actors in bold)
Inputs Small-holder farmers: Few to none. Breeding is from own stock. Breeds
are indigenous but farmers are looking for better stock. Veterinary
pharmaceuticals must be purchased in Maputo 2-3 times a year, fewer in–
the more remote districts. Support services are very limited. Some
farmers are attempting hay production and storage for later use but are not
achieving sufficient compaction, required to preserve freshness and aroma
in the material by expelling most of the air.
Production Small-holder farmers: Farmers herd livestock – goats and cattle, and grow
out animals. Animal productivity is low – there are high loss rates from
disease and poor condition, a result of poor pasturage, over-stocking and
low-quality animals and relatively low levels of veterinary services. Animals
are small in stature. Numbers of animals per household are variable and
uncertain. Water stress is a common problem and there is no
infrastructure to water livestock. Trekking for water is a common problem,
with one-way trips of 10+kms and up to 18kms mentioned. Dip tanks
against tick-borne diseases are non-operational. Animal mortality increases
with animal stress (loss of quality grazing, water stress and outbreaks of
disease), but decreases with attention by animal health specialists. Heat
stress affects grazing quality as well as milk production, which is a small by-
product from cows that do not have a dairy function.
Sales Small-holder farmers, traders: Animals are largely sold when the stock
owner needs cash, sometimes in an emergency situation during low food
stocks or sudden cash needs. Goats are the primary red meat consumed
locally. Cattle, which must be driven to the local cattle fair over large
distances in some cases – e.g. 35kms which takes 20-30 hrs on a cattle
drive, therefore arrive in poor condition before the sale to traders. During
the rainy season, local roads become impassable to vehicles and sales are
not possible.
In Mabalane, cattle sold for 6,000Mts if the prices were depressed (forced
sales) but up to 10,000 – 12,000Mts if better prices could be achieved at a
cattle fair and higher if scales brought more precision to the bargaining
system and greater equity. In Manhiça District, animals sold for 18,000Mts
– 20,000Mts and up to 32,000Mts for since weighing scales were
introduced. Cash is banked in Manhiça but less so in Mabalane. Goats can
achieve 1,500Mts per animal with traders.
Meat production-
slaughter
Small-holder farmers, traders: Goats are mostly slaughtered locally for
choice by the stockholders or locally purchased and consumed. Cattle
slaughter takes place either in the few existing local abattoirs, which have
low standards of hygiene and no carcass cooling and refrigeration facilities,
or in Maputo where such facilities do exist. Transport conditions of animals
are poor and arrive at the Maputo slaughterhouses very thin, which
compromises meat quality. Where meat is inspected, diseased animals may
be destroyed and the owner loses the animal, and thus his investment.
Marketing Small-holder farmers, Traders: Little to none. Phone calls to traders
connect the livestock farmers to traders. Traders have their own market
links to meat sellers. Market performance is poor and demand for quality
meat is not met by supply.
Retail Traders: The retail selling of meat from these rural areas was not observed
in this study. However, often the traders or new owners of the animals

34
remove the carcasses from the slaughterhouse soon after processing for
sale into the markets, without rapid chilling and intensive air draught, ,
which is an unhygienic practice and leads to rapid loss of quality of the
meat. Inspection processes are also poor and do not necessarily prevent
these practices. Refrigeration facilities at abattoirs are generally rare.
Table 4: Climate influences on the red meat value chain.
Value Chain
Component
Climate and climate change influences
Inputs Poor rains reduce hay production, heat stress reduces grass and forage
productivity and quality.
Production Poor rains and heat stress reduce the quality and quantity of grazing, a lack
of grazing requires substantial movement of animals between watering and
feed sources. Water may be scarce and with high temperatures, animal
stress increases. Tick-borne disease outbreaks occur in the rainy season.
Consecutive abnormally wet seasons increase tick loads. High humidity and
temperatures boost tick activity and disease transmission (Bournez et al.,
2015).
Sales Getting animals to sales is difficult during the hot, dry season (water
scarcity) or when heavy rainfalls make the roads impassable for traders
buying and trucking animals away.
Meat production-
slaughter
Warmer conditions may exacerbate food safety if upgrades are not
concluded timeously.
Marketing None
Retail None
3.2. The horticultural value chain
The key characteristics related to the horticulture value chain in southern Mozambique are:
 A lack of access to water in the hot climate, as well as the poor state of irrigation schemes. The
infrastructure has been severely damaged in several large floods and canals also contain
substantial sediment loads, which reduce their efficiency;
 Low productivity – yields are low due to the lack of improved cultivars, poor production
practices, heavy weed loads, and high spoilage post-harvest;
 Poor water use efficiency by the Water Users’ Associations;
 The exposure of the horticultural value chain to flooding;
 Land degradation;
 Lack of access to improved seeds, inputs and mechanisation;
 High pest and disease load;
 High temperatures and precipitation result in pest and disease problems;
 Too much of the same product at the same time (tomatoes) – resulting in competing in the
markets and low prices within a limited period of harvest;

35
 Low levels of development of support services;
 Limited knowledge of horticultural techniques by smallholder famers;
 Poor quality and quantity of produce.
The horticultural value chains being considered in the PROSUL project area consist of small-holder
farmers producing small amounts of produce in a largely informal and traditional manner, with most
produce being consumed domestically and surplus sold into local or nearby markets for cash. They
are mostly located on the Limpopo River flood plain (and are therefore exposed to the hazards of
floods), on the Nkomati River floodplain in the southern parts nearer to the major markets, including
Maputo. Medium-scale and large-scale (commercial) farmers are not part of this analysis. The
horticultural producers have a variety of conditions under which production occurs; much of that in
the PROSUL project area of interest involves irrigation. Most of the horticultural farmers are
incorporated into Farming Associations and specifically for horticulture – Water User Associations.
Some farmers have plots close to the system of canals and diversions associated with the Lower
Limpopo Irrigation system, which is a substantial but dilapidated infrastructure remaining from the
Portuguese colonial period. The irrigation system improvements that need to take place include
cleaning channels and rehabilitating the irrigation system, removal of silt and the installation of
sluice gates. However, floods repeatedly damage the irrigation system. A progamme of irrigation
system rehabilitation in this study area is very expensive. In 1989 the state company doing these
repairs at this location vacated the area and has not returned. The question then is whether huge
expenditure on rehabilitation of the irrigation system is a wise investment? Improved wells and
boreholes are needed and required and in fact may be a cheaper option of obtaining water and
getting it to crops than the irrigation system – more resilient to floods and easier to maintain.
Elsewhere, water for fields is obtained from wells, which are generally 3+ to 5m deep but can be as
little as 0.3m, next to the field. Channels and water are close to the field edge but irrigation of crops
often cannot take place because there is no piping and getting the water from the channels onto the
fields, even over a short distance of a few metres, is very difficult. The people in some small farming
association do not even have hand-held watering cans. Local drainage systems are inadequate for
draining of water when rainfall is intense.
At the height of the drought, harvests are still possible although yields are low for people farming on
the flood plains. Farming remains possible because water is always close at hand just below the soil
surface in very shallow wells and available for the vegetable growers. With the low river levels, salt
intrusion from the ocean becomes problematical, however.
The critical climate issues in this area are the lack of rainfall and the strong, drying winds. The
climate in the last 2 years – build up to the 2015/2016 El Niño, apparently has been very difficult to
cope with, according to these people. There has been very little rain in the hot season (DJF). Crop
stress and the associated crop diseases have set in. New diseases that have never been seen before
are appearing. Prices rise in the market dramatically with the drought, moving from 250Mts to
450Mts per bushel, which benefits the farmers but the higher-end prices are not always achievable.

36
The local roads are very sandy and carry little traffic, making vehicular access difficult. Produce must
then be carried by individuals (on heads) to the main road (N1) five kilometres away for onward
shipment to Xai Xai. The difficulties for transport illustrated here are replicated widely elsewhere in
the region, at greater or smaller distances from major roads and commercial centres.
Temperature probably has a greater influence on crop productivity and quality than rainfall in the
horticultural area of the Limpopo and Nkomati river floodplains. When it is hot and rain occurs,
farmers can manage the diseases (the crop is not severely affected). However, when it is hot and
there has been no rain, the farmers cannot manage the diseases, likely because if the increased
plant stress leads to greater susceptibility to attack by pests. Pests include snails on young carrots,
rats, scale insects and white fly. Drought has a direct influence on disease and pest burden, which
increases during the drier weather. In December-January-February (DJF) – the price of cabbage
rises dramatically. During this hot season, crop yields decline substantially in quality and harvested
leaves quickly wilt. Generally, horticultural products are harvested and delivered during the hot
season through to the beginning of the fresh season, or winter – June-July-August (JJA). Seedlings in
January are sometimes lost to the high temperatures. Seedlings need to be planted in the shade and
irrigated in the afternoon and not in the morning.
The rainy season is expected to start in August but now seems to start in December. It would rain
substantially in the highland areas starting August and in November in the lowland vegetable
growing area. When heavy rains are expected, the farmers stop cropping. Heavy rains are not
expected in February. While heavy rains can do damage, they are preferred above dry periods
because it prevents salt water penetrating from the tidal Nkomati River system. Heavy rain also
“washes out the land” and is antagonistic to pests. In this area, the wind, which is too high in the
critical growth period, is a problem for crop production.
Numerous problems exist in production and sales. Access to seeds and transport are significant
issues for smallholders. Land preparation is done by using animal traction or tractors for ploughing,
animal traction is more expensive than tractors because they take longer to undertake the required
tasks even though their daily rate is lower, however both systems are costly to the smallholder. Soils
are very heavy – clay-rich vertisols, which makes cultivation difficult. Pest infestations reduced
yields, especially “leaf cutters”. The farmers battle constantly with reeds, which emerge from the
ground within two weeks of clearing and substantially reduce crop yields. There are low investment
and re-investment in the farming enterprise. There is little infrastructure to see.
Gender differences exist in the farming and processing of the product. Women undertake more
farming that allows them to sell in the local markets for cash and also work about 4-5 hours on the
farm (cultivating, weeding and harvesting), while men work for about 6 hours and spend most of the
time irrigating the crops (in some instances using watering cans) and the activity is very labour-
intensive.
The farmers presented madumbi/taro/cocoyams/Colocasia esculenta as a good option. It is well
accepted in the market, grows well in the flood plains when planted near water and survives
flooding very well. The only problem with madumbies is the formation of oxalic acids and raphides
in the corm. Fresh madumbies degrade quickly like cassava roots do. However, the populace, which
is skilled at dealing with the anti-nutritional factors and toxicity and short shelf life of cassava, can

37
quickly understand how to deal with the processing of madumbies. Okra was also noted as a good
product by the farming groups.
Table 5: The horticulture value chain components and primary actors
Value Chain
Component
Actors
(primary actors in bold)
Inputs Small-holder farmers: Primarily self-stored seed which is of relatively low
quality. Also seed purchases from companies where available -
government, Pannar and others. Access to good quality seed is a perennial
problem. Credit facilities are few to non-existent.
Preparation Small-holder farmers: Small-scale emergent farmers with rudimentary
tools and equipment on small farms/plots of 0.3 – 5ha. Additional labour is
contracted in where possible, animal traction or tractor-hauled land
preparation is undertaken where feasible and affordable. Weeding and
other tasks are undertaken manually. Labour availability is a constraint and
limits production because not enough land can be prepared in the
individual holdings. Male members of households may often be missing –
working elsewhere in the larger centres or possibly in other countries, eg
South Africa. Male farmers often also saw the responsibility of horticultural
activity as a role for females, while they focused on livestock.
Production Small-holder farmers: Those which are considered irrigation-driven are
mostly within the flood plain of the Limpopo River, working in small farming
associations but usually on their own plots. Crops grown include
tomatoes, cassava, maize, okra, green beans, cabbages, carrots, sweet
potato, potatoes, bananas, onions, small amounts of rice and madumbies
(taro/Colocasia esculenta/cocoyams), roughly in that order of production.
Okra is a crop of interest to the smallholders. Women sell most of the
Okra, along with carrots, green beans and tomato, into local markets. Okra
gets the best value in the market at 250 – 350Mts per bushel, is relatively
stress tolerant and has a longer production season and is a “favoured crop”
because of its relatively high productivity and capacity for income
generation.
Harvesting Small-holder farmers: Mostly/entirely by the owners of the small
farms/plots, using manual labour, contracting in extra labour where and
when available or needed.
Post-harvest and
processing
Small-holder farmers: Owner-driven but sometimes within farming
associations of a number of people as a means of sharing resources.
Extremely limited in scope with little value addition in terms of process or
storage. The products must be taken to the market and largely sold within
the day, especially where these concern leafy vegetables.
Marketing Small-holder farmers: Market development - little to none.
Retail Small-holder farmers: Selling into local open-air markets of small towns for
cash, or via local middlemen (mostly women) in these markets, or traded
for other food or cash crops. Most of the crops produced are for domestic
consumption or for cash needs by sale in these markets. Wheeled
transport of product is very limited and products are often carried by hand.
Lengthy walking times to markets leads to losses of quality. Product quality
is highly variable and non-uniform, reducing potential income. Buyers are

38
local people in the local markets of the small towns, often along the
roadside in which passing traffic offers value. Some of this produce does
reach the major centres such as Maputo, where it can be observed for sale
at the road side and in informal markets. In the shopping centres and
supermarkets, much of the green produce on sale is imported from South
Africa.
Table 6: Climate influences on the horticulture value chain.
Value Chain
Component
Inputs Seedlings may be compromised by excessive temperatures and water stress
Preparation Heavy rains may interfere with land preparation
Production High temperatures and low rainfall reduce yields substantially, through
plant-water stress and high diseases and pests burden. Low rainfall seasons
and prolonged droughts result in saltwater intrusion to shallow
groundwaters in coastal areas. The rainfall seasons starting later and
ending earlier (in some places) or later (in others) affects yield. High
windspeeds damage crops. Cyclones damage crops and infrastructure,
therefore the frequency of cyclones is of importance to resilience.
Harvesting Heavy rains in the late growth season and harvesting period damage the
crops
Post-harvest and
processing
High humidity and temperatures result in rapid spoilage of the products
and encourage a high pest burden.
Marketing None
Retail High temperatures result in quick loss of quality and therefore the value of
the products in the local markets.
3.3. The cassava value chain
The key characteristics of the cassava value chain in southern Mozambique are:
 Large distances from the main markets
 A highly competitive local environment with low prices obtained for the product, which is
labour intensive
 Climate influences yields and pest burdens - high temperatures and low moisture availability
reduced yields. High temperatures increase pest activity
 Has significant potential for post-harvest processing into ground flours which can be bagged and
hermetically sealed.
The primary cassava-producing areas in the PROSUL project study area are in Inhambane Province,
although cassava is widely grown across all provinces. The area is exposed to cyclones, which
destroy crops and houses. Rainfall is perceived to becoming more intense, but not necessarily

39
increasing. Community perceptions of weather changes include more wind and lightning.
Temperatures are also perceived to be increasing, which causes faster decay in produce. Heat stress
affects horticultural products. Away from the floodplains, cassava is grown on sandy/loamy soils and
is rain-fed. A range of other crops are grown, dry beans being the most significant after cassava.
These include cow peas, bambara nuts, other vegetables, rice and pineapples (in the lowlands).
Trees include oranges, cashews, and coconuts and intercropped with cassava.
As a method for increasing farmer yields, PROSUL has initiated Farmer Field Schools (FFS), which are
aimed at improving agricultural practices and direct access to the market. Many of the participants
in these FFS are women. Apart from the equity issues, this is appropriate because many households
are short of males in the available workforce because they are away selling labour elsewhere. The
members in the FFS are being taught in particular how to distinguish plants infected with Cassava
Mosaic Disease (CMD) and to replace these plants with drought-tolerant, disease-free, pest-resistant
and higher yielding varieties. The superior growth performance effects of the new varieties were
clearly visible in the fields visited for this study.
In the PROSUL project area, cassava is entirely rain-fed. While cassava is a relatively drought
resistant plant, it is sensitive to water stress during the first three months after planting, which
impairs the development of the storage roots. There are several varieties of cassava in Mozambique
and they have different characteristics. More drought-resistant stock (Sizankara) is bitter (has a
higher cyanide content?) and takes 18 months to mature. Shinambe /inkusi grows faster (in 1 year)
but the root stock is relatively poor. The soils in the Inhambane Province are generally favourable
for high-yielding cassava production. Water availability remains a problem, the use of boreholes is
quite exclusive and villagers must walk 2+kms to obtain water in buckets (women) if a community
does not have its own borehole.
According to farmers, a significant problem affecting yield and quality of cassava is heat stress.
Farmers have perceptions that rainfall is declining or becoming more variable and unpredictable.
Cyclones are perceived to be increasing in frequency and these damage crops, result in loss of trees
(e.g. citrus, mangoes, cassava). Heat stress causes rotting in-field and leaves dry out (wilt), reducing
yields substantially. Higher temperatures were mentioned as increasing the activity of ants –
possibly Crematogaster spp. While the FFS mentioned that ants were a pest, it is not clear what the
role of ants is and it appears from literature research that these ants have a mutually cooperative
relationship with whitefly and also interfere with biological controls on cassava cochineal elsewhere.
Pests and diseases are evident in the fields. Cassava cochineal or the cassava mealybug Phenacoccus
manihoti and cassava mosaic disease (CMD) was observed on the plants. Farmers in the FFS with
high-yielding cultivars and relatively disease-free plants try to encourage neighbouring farmers with
CMD to destroy their plants and plant the improved, CMD-free plants. Diseased and disease-free
plants co-exist, increasing the likelihood of infection of the disease-free cassava greater. Faster roll
out of improved cassava stock, which must come from Inharreme, is an objective of the different
FFS, who cannot get improved stock fast enough. Poor weeding practices reduces yields very
substantially and this was observed in the differences in plant vigour in adjacent fields.
Famers mentioned owning up to 5 hectares and more of land, of which only a proportion was
farmed. Labour shortages exist as there are not enough people in households to do all the work (the

40
younger members leave for cities and opportunities for employment elsewhere) and labour inputs
are further reduced by the high incidence of malaria. Traction is required in the fields and can be
provided by draught animals or tractors. Tractors are preferred because animals are stolen and
work more slowly and there are problems organising services.
Processing facilities are quite rudimentary in some cases. Small factories are used to process
cassava, which is cleaned in a basin, shaved, chipped, compressed and dried. Dust and cleanliness in
the factory remain a problem. Storage (post-harvest) of the products is also problematic and results
in poor quality. Numerous pests were observed – such as borer, in the dry beans. Yields and quality
of the final product are reduced significantly. Adaptations at this site and the FFS include a new
mill/upgrade of the facility to be more efficient and higher quality of output.
Small petrol-driven mills are used to make flours of various grades. Rale is the primary product – a
granulated or flaked cassava flour that is fermented and roasted. A finer-grained flour is also made
only to order because it requires more intensive processing and is therefore more expensive in
terms of time and resources.
The cassava value chain is highly competitive and the product sells for low prices, relative to inputs.
Other studies, e.g. Dias (2012) indicate large price gaps between “farm gate” and retail, indicating
insufficient bargaining power by farmers, a lack of information in the value chain, difficulties for
market access (especially during the rainy season). Generally, processed cassava is being traded
internally (within the country) only with low value addition.
Significant benefits lie in scaling up post-harvest processing and packaging of cassava flours that
increases the shelf life of the product very substantially. Manufactured and stored in in hygienic
conditions will substantially increase shelf life and allows the product to be transported considerable
distances to urban markets. Storage of cassava flours increases food security during off seasons for
other crops, or it may be used as a product in other food products. It is already seen as a possible
wheat substitute, of which Mozambique imports most of its needs as domestic production is
minimal. Substantial barriers exist however, which include developing and maintaining quality
standards and consistency of product, which includes the quantity of residual cyanogenic glucosides
(Tivana et al., 2009)
Table 7: The cassava value chain components and primary actors
Value Chain
Component
Actors
(primary actors in bold)
Inputs Small-holder farmers in Farmer Association collectives: Very moderate,
some rootstock, otherwise self-produced cuttings are used to plant fields.
New high-yielding disease-free cultivars are being planted from DNEA plant
breeders at Inharreme. The provision of improved material from
Inharreme does not meet demand.
Preparation Small-holder farmers: Traction or land preparation is provided by animal or
tractors, where feasible. Manual labour is also used but there is a general
shortage of labour, which limits planting area.
Production Small-holder farmers: Planting must start as soon as the first rains fall, but
competition for labour is problematic. Improved varieties of cassava that
are free of Cassava Mosaic Disease are being planted. Yields vary according

41
to the variety used, soil type, age of the plant at harvest and the
distribution of rainfall through the rainy season. Drought -resistant stock
(sizankara) is bitter (higher cyanide content) and takes 18 months to
mature. Shinambe (inkusi) grows faster (in 1 year) but root stock is
relatively poor. Poor weeding practices reduces growth and yield
substantially. The differences in plant vigour between CMD-inficted
cassava in weed-bound fields and disease-free and well-weeded fields is
substantial. Weeding is done manually. There are no fertiliser inputs or
irrigation. The existence of diseased cassava in close proximity to disease-
free varieties offers pathways for the spread of disease, some farmers are
reluctant to remove their stocks.
Harvesting Small-holder farmers: Mostly by the plot owner, but additional labour can
assist.
Post-harvest and
processing
Farmer Associations: The produce is washed, shaved, chipped, pressed
and dried using manual processes. Small petrol-powered motors (in which
there are servicing problems) power small mills, operate on a demand
basis. There is no electricity supply. Ground cassava flour is bagged and
stored in granulated form (rale). Finer ground flour is made to order.
Stocks are stored on site, but transported and sold in the larger centres.
The quality of the product is variable and depends on the quality of the raw
material, hygiene and processing capabilities.
Marketing Farmer Associations: There is no branding of product and little ability to get
cassava into the supply chain of other products for these farmer
associations. There is little to no international trade of cassava from these
farmer associations, as far as can be ascertained.
Retail Farmers Associations: Most product is destined for domestic or local
market use in its raw form. About 40-45% is used domestically, another 40-
45% raw product for local market use and about 10-15% goes for
preparation for commercial products. Transport to these markets is
problematic, roads are poor (often very sandy) and sometimes impassable
in the wet season. Transport is a substantial proportion of the pricing
components in the retail value addition of the product. The distance
between the production villages and the retail markets can be large, from
10–100+kms. More coarse-ground cassava flour is sold than fine-grained
flour, which is more expensive to manufacture, according to producers, and
the retail price does not reflect the extra processing required. Bags of
cassava flour are sold locally or to traders who may offer cash or other
products which do not necessarily trade quickly, meaning sellers must stock
other products as part of the trade.
Table 8: Climate influences in the cassava value chain
Value Chain
Component
Inputs Where new stock is being planted, climatic influences and limits on the
production of new stock are similar to those listed below in the Production
section. This affects the availability of new stock.
Preparation NA
Production Planting is dependent on the first rains, which have become more
unreliable. Cassava is entirely rainfed and dependent on seasonal climate.

42
Intense storms (cyclones) destroy crops. While cassava is drought-tolerant,
sufficient soil moisture is still a determinant of yield. Heat stress (and high
humidity) causes rotting in-field. The pest burden is heavy and high
temperatures increase pest activity. The relationship between the spread
of CMD and temperatures is not well understood, temperature possibly
controls the activity of the whitefly vector.
Harvesting NA
Post-harvest and
processing
High temperatures and high humidity hasten the loss of quality of the
product and decay. Harvested roots decay within a few days if not
processed.
Marketing NA
Retail Prices in the markets vary according to availability and this is controlled
somewhat by climate: cassava is a fall-back from preferred carbohydrates
such as maize.
4. Mapping of exposure to floods and drought
4.1. Definitions and approaches
Vulnerability mapping can provide a powerful tool for understanding how that vulnerability is
distributed across the region of interest, and depending on the concepts of vulnerability used, why
this may be so. In terms of definitions used by the IPCC, vulnerability is “the degree to which a
system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”
(Füssel and Klein, 2006). Vulnerability, therefore, has the elements of exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity.
In this mapping approach, we considered mostly just exposure and sensitivity to drought and
flooding. Extreme weather, such as drought and flooding, are the climatic events which have the
most impact and a change in the frequency and intensity of extreme events are the most likely
climate change impacts to occur in southern Mozambique – Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane
provinces. For further information, we refer to the section on observed and modelled climate
changes above.
Exposure is being present in a dangerous situation to the extent that a person or thing can be
harmed or damaged, or being in contact with dangerous substances or materials. Exposure can have
elements of time. Exposures over short periods may or may not be hazardous. In this case, floods
which occur over the duration of a few days can be extremely hazardous, as opposed to a lack of
rainfall over a few months, which is not nearly so hazardous because the area regularly experiences
those conditions.
Sensitivity is the degree to which something or someone is affected by a hazard. Someone or
something who is highly sensitive to a situation is affected far more by a small change in a system
than someone who is less or not sensitive to such changes. Some people and systems can tolerate

43
stresses more than others. The causes of sensitivity can be many. Underlying medical conditions can
make someone more sensitive to exposure to a new pathogen. People with only one source of
income are more sensitive to a disruption of that source than is someone with multiple sources of
income. People with only one food source are more sensitive than people with multiple sources of
food. Sensitivity can also have a time dimension, in which the degree of sensitivity varies seasonally,
annually or according to whatever circumstance.
4.2. Drought exposure and loss of vegetation cover
An analysis of the drought of 2015 – 2016 is useful to understand how the impacts of high stocking
rates lead to detectable losses of vegetation cover at district scales. A reduction of cover points to
high levels of vegetation exploitation and, as a sign of degradation, indicates areas of lower
quantities of forage for animals – both grazers and browsers (goats), which means a loss of primary
productivity and therefore lower levels of livestock health and socio-economic vulnerability.
Ongoing vegetation loss and soil degradation (resulting from the lack of cover), leads to a longer-
term deterioration of productive land and points to the emergence of desertification and chronic
food insecurity and intensifies vulnerability even further.
The imagery is derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalised
difference vegetation index (NDVI) and compares spatial mean NDVI values, which represent normal
rainfall seasons, with the NDVI values of the low rainfall (drought) period of 2015-2016 at similar
times of the year. The NDVI, in simple terms, is a measurement of the balance between energy
received and energy emitted by objects on the surface of the earth. The NDVI values are the pooled
response to the whole ecosystem (soil, grass, shrub and tree layers). The surfaces with the lowest
NDVI values are those with the least biomass and greenness above the surface. The NDVI is
generally very sensitive to soil background reflectance at low leaf area index (LAI) values, but the
effect is not linear and this sensitivity weakens above certain LAI threshold values. Arable land
which is generally bare in the dry season shows up better than in the wet growing season. As
phenology (the growth cycles in plants) is an important driver of changing NDVI values, it is
important to understand the seasonal cycle of NDVI and ensure the analysis is not confusing drought
effects with seasonal changes. Numerous studies have mentioned the effects of both temperature
changes and rainfall changes as the source of climatic influence on NDVI (for example Sruthi and
Aslam, 2015; Yengoh et al., 2014).
4.2.1. Biophysical sensitivity of vegetation cover to drought
Large areas of vegetation are broadly similar and have similar reflectance characteristics. Much of
the area is dry savanna thicket or dry savannah grassland (FAO, 2004). The main biome in Gaza
Province is dry/eutrophic savanna characterized by the Acacia spp. and mopane woodland
(Colophospermum mopane) on heavier-textured, base-saturated soils (in the west, close to the
Lembombo mountainland and the South African border), and Caesalpinoideae and Combretaceae on
leached, sandy and lighter-textured soils (FAO, 2004). Further north and east, the vegetation
becomes a tree savannah, in which the tree cover opens out and grasses become more prominent.
There is little human and cattle-grazing activity in these areas, which are a long way from road

44
infrastructure. Towards the east, the vegetation cover is dominated by open woodlands with Acacia
spp. and short dense thorn thickets in bottomlands. The coastal area is humid tropical climate with
a mixed woodland and grassland characteristic, the vegetation however has been quite strongly
altered by human activity (FAO, 2004). The biome is adapted, by the nature of the vegetation, to
long dry periods, characteristic of the long annual dry period but also the inter-seasonal dry periods.
Nevertheless, drought and especially intense and long duration droughts, still have an effect on leaf
cover and primarly productivity.
By comparing a time-series of images between drought and non-drought years, the variations in
NDVI provided by different land uses, natural vegetation types and soil types account for persisting
differences across all images. When an image is compared, that is, subtracted, the same land-use
type and soil type is compared to itself, as is the large-scale biome pattern. NDVI values are then
based on changes in the vegetation cover (LAI) and the spatial effects of soil and land-use type are
removed. This is the broad basis for our analysis, although we acknowledge some necessary
assumptions which could only be tested in a far more extended study. Population density changes
and land-use conversion do not happen on a large scale over a few years in this part of southern
Mozambique; therefore these factors of change will be insignificant in any broader indications of
changing NDVI values. The dominant factors of change of vegetation cover therefore is climatic,
followed by human-induced resource use and appropriation, i.e. grazing.
Land-use change, such as deforestation, is known to affect NDVI values (Meneses-Tovar, 2011).
Deforestation is occurring in the image area as a result of charcoal manufacture. This activity is
particularly associated with the road system as this allows charcoal producers sales opportunities to
traders and itinerant travellers. This study did not pay specific attention to examining how
deforestation affected the NDVI values because, at a 10 km pixilation scale at which the images were
produced. We have assumed that there may be some effects on NDVI data of deforestation but that
the change is too small from year to year to be discernible for the larger area under consideration in
the current data set (>65,000 km2
). Wood cutting and charcoal making occur close to and along the
larger transport routes (road and rail).
4.2.2. Drought effects or over-grazing?
There is an annual cycle to the NDVI which relates to the annual seasonal moisture cycle (Sruthi and
Aslam, 2015). To evaluate the effects of the drought, similar time periods between years of differing
seasonal rainfalls need to be compared. During extremely dry periods, such as the recent drought,
very low NDVI values can be reached (Meneses-Tovar, 2011). Therefore how do we know that the
particularly low values (red in Figs 10, 11) are not just artefacts of the exceptionally low rainfall and
high temperatures and not also an effect of the appropriation of primary productivity (grass,
browse) by cattle and goats (eg see Omuto et al., 2010). We can assume there is a substantial effect
of human impacts because 1) service providers told us that the land was overstocked, 2) community
members told us that there are likely too many animals (but were also nervous that our intervention
was to start a process of destocking) and 3) because we could see on a field trip that there was very
little forage available in the field visit at Mabelane and Hoyo Hoyo.

45
Figure 9: Individual NDVI values per district over a range of years, indicating the progressive
drying of the region, especially the western parts.

46
In applications of NDVI to whole countries, the interpretation of values is complicated by variations
in terrain, sharp regional and sub-regional patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall, influenced for
example by strong orographic gradients, latitudinal differences, longitudinal differences and
boundary conditions, for example having an ocean boundary, which affects diurnal and seasonal
temperature variations (Yengoh et al., 2014).
Southern Mozambique is an area with a much smaller altitudinal range and no strongly contrasting
vegetation changes. It is also an area of high seasonal rainfall variability, especially as it is located
along the Southern Tropic, which is the general region of atmospheric divergence of the Hadley cell
system. Therefore, it can be expected that some normally wet seasons may be substantially drier
than average at the time of the capture of satellite imagery and so strongly influence the year to
year NDVI values.
Using the series of images and sampling across the areas where there are fewer human activities
and animal pressure on the land in areas of similar vegetation and rainfall zones, an estimate can be
arrived at for the effects of overstocking on NDVI and therefore for vegetation cover. These are
Chicualacuala, the northern parts of Mabelane district and Chigubo (which represent those parts of
Parque Nacional de Banhine (Banhine National Park), Limpopo Transfrontier National Park (Parque
Nacional du Limpopo) and Massingir and Massangena districts. Our estimate is that climate variation
(drought) is responsible for roughly 60% of the change in NDVI across the region, comparing the
various NDVI images. The remaining 40% is the over-grazing response, which is especially evident in
the districts of Chokwe and Magude to the west. In the east, broadly, the NDVI response is slightly
negative or positive, indicating a relatively little change in NDVI as a result of the drought.
We acknowledge that these are rough estimations because the data on the spatial pattern and
timing of rainfall is not available, for lack of instrumentation across this region. We have not
examined veld fires pattern. Fires do not carry well in this vegetation but the situation may change if
there are several consecutive seasons of higher-than-normal rainfall across the entire region and a
large grass biomass results (Yengoh et al., 2014). This is anyway unlikely in areas of higher human
activity. The phenomenon requires further study but our first estimate is that it makes little
difference to the results.
4.2.3. Implications of exposure to drought
Annual rainfall across southern Mozambique is highly variable and the region is already exposed and
susceptible to periodic drought, before even considering major global-scale drivers of variation such
as El Niño. The anomalous reduction in NDVI values points to the excessive loss of leaf cover during
the recent severe drought in the southern and western region and points to the excessive
appropriation of primary productivity (grass/foraging) by livestock. Additionally, this may take
substantial time to recover, even during a good season of rainfall. Heavy rains which follow on the
drought result in excessive loss of surface soils through erosion and sediment transport. Continued
overstocking in the region will push some areas towards increasing desertification unless a
programme of reducing stocking density can be achieved. Such a situation leaves the landscape with
an even lower ability to support grazing activities and will further impoverish communities living

47
there. These communities have few additional sources of livelihood to assist them during times of
shortage.

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Figure 10: Within-season NDVI comparisons for the districts of southern Mozambique, indicating
how close each district was to the medium-term average for January. Redder colours indicate the
largest deficits.

49
Figure 11: The NDVI anomaly for January 2016 at the height of the drought, relative to the long-
term mean for Januarys (2001-2015). The gold colours represent drought impacts on near natural
vegetation, influenced by national parks. The orange and red colours represent the drought and
human impacts on vegetation cover.

50
4.3. Flooding
A map of the southern provinces shows areas that have historically flooded, based on satellite
images (Fig 12). This provides a good indicator of where flooding will occur again at various stages.
Figure 12: Flooding hazard map of southern Mozambique, based on satellite images of historically
flooded areas, in relation to districts. Source: FEWS NET (2014).
The districts vulenerable to flooding are located mostlyi along the major rivers and in the flood
plains of the Nkomati and Limpopopo Rivers. The value chain vulnerable to flooding is mostly that of
horticulture by dint of the necessity of horticulture needing to be located in proximity to water

51
resoruces for irrigation purposes, which mostly uses flood irrigation and currently, mostly from the
legacy system in place built during the period of Portugues colonialism. This makes horticulture
highly vulnerable to flooding frequency. Very significant and damaging flooding occurs about 1:10
years on average but climate modelling cannot project storm frequency of the very powerful storms
of the type that produces devastating flooding such as cyclones with any accuracy into the future.
5. Applying a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
5.1. Introduction
Given the many factors that influence the agricultural value chains in southern Mozambique, a
method is required to evaluate different adaptation options and rank them from most to least
important. It will be most efficient to concentrate resources on those adaptations which produce
the most benefit against an agreed upon set of criteria.
This chapter presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) on potential adaptation options in
the horticultural, cassava and red meat value chains in the study area. A short discussion on MCDA
is followed by the methods used and the source of data and information. The analysis and results
are presented as a table that contains the key recommended adaptations. A short discussion follows
and calculations are included in Appendix A.
5.1.1. Linking the vulnerabilities in the value chains to adaptation options
The field trips and discussions with service providers, PROSUL officials, government authorities and
farming communities were the data and information collecting processes which described the
vulnerabilities and losses occurring in the relevant value chains. The descriptions of each of these
are dealt with extensively in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 and 4.3 for the red meat, horticulture and cassava
value chains respectively. From these, a list of potential adaptations was developed that addressed
individual problems or groups of associated vulnerabilities. The applicability of potential adaptations
needs to be ranked as some have higher impacts and are more feasible than others, within the
context of the problems they are addressing and in the location that they occur. Not all adaptations
are equal and trade-offs need to be made. A formal process is required to do this and a multi-
criteria decision analysis approach (MCDA) is used. The application of MCDA to climate change
adaptation options is widespread and there is a reasonably extensive literature on the subject (see
Dittrich et al., 2016; Favretto et al., 2016; Fontana et al., 2013 for examples), but not specifically with
respect to agricultural value chains. The development of relevant criteria for analysis, their relevant
rankings and results are described below.
5.2. Multi-criteria decision analysis
Multi-criteria decision analysis is a method of evaluating a complex course of action against a
relevant set of criteria. This methodology allows one to rank choices, clearly showing the
advantages and disadvantages of different strategies. MCDA can be a simple or complex approach,

52
depending on the nature of the problem, the questions to be resolved and the data available to
characterise each adaptation. In many cases, including this one, the list of adaptations is reasonably
long and therefore intensive data cannot be collected on each potential adaptation. Therefore
adaptation options must be compared against each other in a relatively robust but simple way that is
consistent across all criteria. The process that was followed is described below.
5.2.1. The criteria
The following rating criteria against which each potential adaptation are tested were obtained either
via the Terms of Reference for this project or were determined from the questions that arose during
the collection of the field data, as follows:
1. Climate change adaptiveness: Would the adaptation be effective under various climate change
scenarios projected for the project area?
2. Impact: Would the adaptation make a positive material difference? Would this difference be
large or small?
3. Feasibility: Can the adaptation actually be implemented given political, economic, social,
technical, legal circumstances and environmental circumstances?
4. Cost: Elements of cost are usually one of the main criteria of all MCDA analyses. What are the
financial implications of developing the adaptation? We do not have financial data at present
but have based this evaluation on previous experience of adaptation costs from other projects,
and a common sense understanding of the cost of certain interventions.
5. Does it increase the income of people occupying different components of the agricultural value
chain? (This is one of the aspects given directly in the ToRs).
6. Local practice: Recommendations which are not culturally appropriate to the target populace
are unlikely to be successful (ref or footnotes). Will the individuals and communities
implementing the adaptation, or who need to comply in some way to make it successful, be
comfortable doing so? Is the adaptation respectful or considerate of religious beliefs or cultural
preferences? Does the adaptation take existing knowledge and ways of dealing with similar
challenges into account?
7. Multiple value chain coverage: Does the adaptation cover all value chains or only one or two of
them? The more coverage achieved, the greater efficiency of the adaptation.
8. Scalability: Is the adaptation limited to a few interventions in a small geographical area or can it
be applied at district level or regional level? Can the proposed adaptation be multiplied to
positively affect a greater number of people? The more scalable an intervention is, the greater
importance it has for the adaptation process.
Cost/benefit ratio: Is the cost of the adaptation outweighed by its expected benefits, especially
in terms of preventing losses or producing profits? This is an indicator of the value for money of
the proposed adaptation. Cost/benefit ratios which are small are questionable as valuable
adaptations. The objective is to obtain high cost/benefit ratios – small inputs result in multiples
of value as outputs
5.2.2. Values used in each criterion and ranking score
For all of these criteria (excluding cost), there are no standardised units of measure. We have
therefore used indictor values. For the sake of consistency across all adaptations and all criteria, a

53
value scale of 1 – 3 (low – high) is used, including the cost criteria. The score ranking model is
additive, i.e. all indicators are added to achieve a score. Furthermore, all of the indicators increase
positively, that is a value of 1 is given to an indicator that is low in terms of influence and a 3 for a
high or large influence. The exception is for that of the criteria - cost, which is reversed, in that high
costs have a low number (1). High costs of adaptation result in reduced benefits to target
communities. The values given here were developed by a group that has a wide experience of the
effectiveness of each of the categories through a process of debate.
Questions remain over the relative weightings of each criterion. In an ideal ranking system,
suchcriteria should be uniquely independent of each other. It is not possible in this system to create
such uniqueness and there is some overlap of one indicator with another, but these overlaps are
explained in Table 2. Some criteria may be more important to the end result than others and will
require a change in the weighting of criteria to increase or decrease its importance in the ranking
table. This is a matter for discussion with the PROSUL team.
5.2.3. Results of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
The ranked results are presented in Table 4 below. The ranking scores are presented in the
appended Table 3.

54
Table 9: Potential adaptation options, ranked from most important to least desirable, with explanations of the criteria used to derive their position in
the ranking table (not final). An explanation of the evaluation scores is given in the main text.
Rank Adaptation Evaluation (scores in brackets after each description)
1 Improve access and transport to markets – for example, upgrade rural
roads: One of the root causes of most farmers’ low income is the limited of
movement of goods, services and products to and from markets. Roads are
highly susceptible to climatic influences – heavy rains lead to damaged or
impassable roads as well as loss of market accessibility or necessary quick
services such as veterinary supplies.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – extreme weather-induced isolation of
households prevents a range of goods movements as well as other services. Impact
(3) – under current conditions farming areas can remain isolated for weeks.
Feasibility (3) – technologies are available. Costs (1) – building roads that are
climate resilient in this region can be very expensive but will result in higher
Income to householders. Local practice (3) – provided that nobody is displaced,
and no culturally significant sites are disturbed, it is likely that road upgrades will
be welcomed. Value chains (3) – all respondents are familiar with the effects of
restricted transport access - applicable to all three value chains. Scalability (3) is
somewhat scalable. Cost/benefit ratio (2) – if road building is based on the likely
density of traffic, Cost/benefit ratio is high (3) – roads are the key economic artery
for movement of goods, services and people.
2 Better irrigation water management - less large-scale investment-heavy
infrastructure (which is very expensive) and more drip/microjet: It is likely
to be more cost effective to change water management from infrastructure
such as canals and ditches, which are expensive to build and maintain to
drip and microjet. The flooding in the Limpopo River flood plain regularly
destroys this major infrastructure and is very expensive to repair. This
technology will certainly be appropriate where the use of borehole water is
proposed and can be managed appropriately and used sparely. However,
care would have to be taken to not over-use or over-commit the resource
and it will, therefore, require careful management.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – buffer against variability. Impact (3) – yields can
double. Feasibility (3) – technologies are known. Costs (2) – cheaper than the large
and investment-heavy flood irrigation infrastructure that constitute canals and
water management systems, which fill with silt during flooding, will result in higher
Income to householders (3) if improved market access can be gained, the Local
practice is high as all field respondents (famers and extension officers, as well as
PROSUL project officers, agreed improved access to water is a key issue, is
applicable to all three Value chains (3), is somewhat scalable (2) – water
infrastructure cannot be installed everywhere for environmental, engineering and
technical reasons of access, Cost/benefit ratio is high (3) - seasonal water
shortages and even lack of access to water over short distances is one of the key
constraints to improved livelihoods
3 Selectively increase the number of boreholes for domestic and small scale
farming: More boreholes will be beneficial across all three value chains -
for stock watering in the red meat value chain, for small scale horticulture
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – many small-holder famers and householders
are often short of water, high Impact (3) – reduces householders time spent finding
water and food increases yields, Feasibility (3) – technologies are known and

55
producers in some areas that are currently entirely reliant on rainfall for
crop production. The key aspect is to provide water at the lowest cost and
in the most sustainable way. A borehole allied with drip and microjet
irrigation is likely to be cheaper, more adaptable and with lower labour
requirements, including greater efficiency. However, use of groundwater for
irrigation also requires careful management.
relatively easily implemented, Costs (1) – this type of infrastructure is relatively
expensive an there the question of financial resources as householders are unlikely
to be able to afford such capital investments themselves, increases Income (3) –
particularly as small-scale agricultural yields and garden production increases, the
Local practice is high (3) – householders and farmers have specified their
difficulties with water access and the water deficits at the plot scale is visible, the
adaptation is applicable across all three Value chains (3) – red meat industry, the
cassava and horticultural producers need water closer to the user, the adaptation
is somewhat scalable (2) – boreholes cannot be put everywhere and there are
aspects of groundwater sustainability to consider, Cost/benefit ratio is moderate
to high (2) – it is likely that there may not be enough water to satisfy demand or
has water quality problems.
4 Develop improved slaughterhouses, better procedures, refrigeration and
storage facilities to prevent spoilage in the heat and humidity: Improved
slaughtering facilities and refrigeration storage are of primary importance to
the red meat value chain. Movement of animals into the red meat value
chain cannot be expanded without provision of refrigeration and cold
storage facilities, which creates a buffer for animals moving into the system
and then dispersal by traders. The value chain therefore also requires
refrigerated trucking facilities also.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – this will assist farmers pushing more stock, at
better prices, into the red meat value chain during a drought crisis, will have a
substantial Impact (3) – substantially different to current situation in which only a
few animals can be moved at a time into the red meat value chain, as well as
developing a commercial revenue-generating component , Feasibility (3) – the
technologies are known and the adaptation only requires supporting infrastructure
such as electrical power and suitable roads, Costs (1) – like all infrastructure, high
capital costs are involved, but it will increase Income to households in the meat
producing areas substantially (3) – many households have a mix of livestock and
crop production and in a drought, crops fail, cash is used up and the only option is
to sell animals, which should be at the best price possible, the Local practice is high
(3) – livestock owners understand well the issues of the slow off-take rate and the
impacts that has when the need to sell increases above that offtake rate,
depressing prices , applicable mostly in the red meat Value chains (3), is somewhat
scalable (2) – facilities will have to be concentrated in the predominantly red meat
production areas, although distances are still very large, Cost/benefit ratio is high
(3) – this adaptation is critical to increasing the movement of animals out of the red
meat producing areas and will be critical to increase drought resilience.
5 Improved crops that are tolerant of high temperatures: High temperatures Climate change adaptiveness (3) – the hot season reduces yields, high Impact (3) –

56
were frequently mentioned as being problematic for crop yield and quality.
Some cultivars are better than others at tolerating high temperatures. This
adaptation requires research services and extension to introduce the new
cultivars to the farmers, who may prefer traditional cultivars.
yields can improve significantly, possibly double, including cassava, highly
Feasibility (3) as technologies are known (breeding) but relatively high Costs (2) -
research infrastructure and time taken to produce new cultivars, will result in
higher Income to householders (3) if improved market access can be gained, the
Local practice is high as all field respondents (farmers and extension officers as
well as PROSUL project officers agreed that temperature excursions during the hot
season are damaging, the technology is applicable to all two Value chains (2) –
horticulture and cassava, is somewhat scalable (3) – the technology can be applied
everywhere, Cost/benefit ratio is moderately high (2) – a substantial investment in
crop breeding is required.
6 Increased pest control - simple cost-effective techniques for cassava
mealybugs, i.e. biocontrol, more research needed: Cassava yields are
reduced substantially by various pests and diseases of cassava, which were
observed infield. Research elsewhere has shown that bio controls have the
greatest cost/benefit ratio of all control methods. Chemical controls imply
ongoing operating costs for the farmers, which currently are impossible for
small-scale farmers.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – pest activity increases in higher temperatures,
high Impact (3) – yields can improve significantly with lower pest burden,
moderate Feasibility (2) as the availabilities of chemical technologies is known,
biocontrol technologies has a higher cost/benefit but more difficult to implement,
therefore implying relatively high Costs and time to implement (2) – which
requires a research infrastructure, but will result in higher Income to householders
(3) if pest controls can be implemented effectively, the Local practice is high (3) as
field respondents (farmers) and extension officers are concerned regarding pest
impacts, the technology is applicable to all two Value chains (2) – horticulture and
cassava, is scalable (3) – the technology can be applied everywhere, the
Cost/benefit ratio is moderately high (3) – a substantial investment in crop
breeding is required.
7 Re-instatement of cattle dipping activities - repair cattle dips and use
them or install spray races (ticks and climate change?): Substantial
numbers of livestock die from preventable tick-borne diseases. Tick
infestations are sensitive to climate variation. Numerous dip tanks are
inoperable. Restoration is constrained by the lack of capital. Innovations
such as spray races could be considered. Spray racers would be cheaper
than concrete dips.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – controls are urgently needed against tick-borne
diseases, which take a high toll of animals, the high Impact (2) – livestock owners
lose substantial wealth through avoidable deaths of animals, Feasibility (3) – there
is no technical difficulty in undertaking such tasks, Costs (1) – are high however
and facilities require ongoing maintenance, but the technology does result in
higher Income accruing to households (3) , the technology is well adapted
culturally (3) – because it has been in long use , is applicable across one Value
chain (1) , is scalable (3) – in that more and more dips can be established,
Cost/benefit ratio is high (3) – a substantial number of cattle deaths by disease will

57
be prevented.
8 Encourage earlier sale of livestock as droughts intensify (see drought
prediction) - before animals die: This is a behavioural change linked to the
technical innovation of early drought prediction. Support people to
understand the benefits of early sales and “banking” their assets before
losses take place will be beneficial but is likely to be met with resistance.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) – reduced financial and livelihood losses during
drought, high Impact (3) – households can lose 50%+ of livestock wealth during
severely adverse conditions, has moderate Feasibility (2) because infrastructure
and market chains are required but at relatively high Costs initially (2) – for the
establishment of infrastructure but also conditional on road access, will result in
higher net Income to householders (3) if improved market access and timeliness of
sales can be achieved, the Local practice is moderate (2) – initially low as the
dominant culture is to hold onto animals for as long as possible but sales do occur,
especially when conditions warrant such as the current drought, is applicable to
one Value chain (1), is scalable (2) – the principle can be applied everywhere,
Cost/benefit ratio is high (3) – the change in business philosophy will bring
substantial benefits to the livestock-owning households.`
9 Increase electricity availability at local and small business centres: More
value could be added through post-harvest processing and storage, which
includes refrigeration. Electricity availability is a key infrastructural
component of development. This could include micro-grids
Climate change adaptiveness (3) This adaptation is highly climate adaptive – the
provision of energy can maintain product in the value chains for much longer and
assist with quality standards; Impact (2) is moderately high – not all farmers will
have access to the facilities; Feasibility (2) is moderate because it requires a large
infrastructure investment and coordination amongst government departments – it
must come from the central components of government, which tend to work
slowly, and Mozambique is somewhat constrained in electricity generation; Costs
(1) this type of infrastructure has high costs; Income (2) results in a moderate to
high increases in income to farmers in all value chains; Local practice (3) Farmers
already recognise the likely benefits of electricity supplies in the population
centres; Value chain inclusivity (3) is inclusive of all value chains; Scalability (3) is
highly scalable as more population centres can be connected to the grid; and will
therefore have a high Cost/benefit ratio (3) as it increase all other business
activities.
10 Shade cloth helps bring temperatures down in the hot season - good for
market prices: High temperatures, which are consistently above 32°C, limit
enzyme activity in plants and lead to loss of plant vigour, increase stress and
loss of productivity. Reducing temperatures mechanically will make a
Climate change adaptiveness (3) This adaptation is highly climate adaptive –
reducing temperatures in horticultural production will improve quality standards of
the product; Impact (3) is high – high temperatures are one of the biggest
problems faced in the horticultural industry; Feasibility (3) is highly feasible

58
substantial difference to the quantity and quality of product. because the technology is well understood although Costs are relatively high (2)
this type of infrastructure has relatively high costs for individual farmers; but it will
certainly improve Income (2) of farmers and already in use in places and farming
communities expressed support for it, giving a high Local practice (3); Value chain
inclusivity (3) is however low because it only applies to horticulture, but it has high
levels of Scalability (3) because the ability to roll out the technology is mostly just
limited by the availability of finance; and will therefore have a moderate
Cost/benefit ratio (2) because of the cost requirements, which will need to be
amortised and possibly relatively frequent replacement.
11 Develop refrigeration and storage facilities to prevent spoilage in the heat
and humidity: Significant losses in the value chains of different agricultural
goods occur because very low levels of storage of fresh produce or animal
products means substantial losses of market opportunity
Climate change adaptiveness (3) A highly climate adaptive action in response to
increasing temperatures which result in spoilage of product, i.e. perishables, which
includes the various components of all the value chains; makes a substantial
Impact (3) high temperatures are one of the biggest problems faced in all value
chains; Feasibility (2) relies on electricity access, either via the national grid (slow,
expensive) or possibly renewables or fuel-based, but elements of the technology
are well understood although Costs are high (1) for individual farmers or
consortiums of farmers, which however will certainly improve Income (3) and
already supported by some farming communities it, giving a high Local practice (3);
Value chain inclusivity (2) is however moderate because it mostly applies to
horticulture and the red meat value chains, and is moderately scalable (2) because
the ability to roll out the technology is limited by the availability of finance as
availability of electricity, or fuels at reasonable prices; even so, it will have a high
Cost/benefit ratio (3) because the improvements in longevity of the product will
bring substantial benefits to farming communities.
12 Increase number and range and quality of extension services & officers:
The introduction of new ways of agricultural production that brings new
knowledge and practices to the communities and provides ongoing
technical support is required through a sufficient density of extension
services. Communities often fall back on old practices and the benefits of
Climate change adaptiveness (3) This is a highly climate adaptive action because
responses need to be driven with the implementation of new ways of doing things,
the application of new technology and ongoing information transfer. In
conservatively-minded communities, adopting new methods is seen as inherently
risky, therefore constant technical and informational support is required, which

59
new knowledge lapse however will have a beneficial Impact (2) although it takes a while to build support
and trust by the target communities and not all will follow or adopt suggests
adaptations immediately; however, for other reasons which includes the
attractiveness of the work, positions are not easy to fulfil Feasibility (2) and
requires substantial investment by the DNEA, so Costs are high (1) but the result,
should put farmers on a footing to increase their Income (3) because increased
production cannot be undertaken without the injection of new knowledge. It is
understood that messages provided by extension officers do face some level of
resistance for various reasons of low levels of trust and intensely traditional and
long-standing ways of doing things, resulting in a moderate Local practice (2);
Improved and wider levels of extension however apply to all value chains - Value
chain inclusivity (3) and therefore is highly scalable (3) because the ability to
increase the density of extension services and offices is only limited by the
availability of finance and support from national departments. Adaptation cannot
take place without extension interventions, therefore the Cost/benefit ratio (3) is
high.
13 Increase conservation agricultural (CA) practices: CA has proven potentials
to increase crop yields as well as the long-term environmental and financial
sustainability of farming enterprises. CA has three principles – 1)
Permanent cover, 2) Crop rotation and 3) Minimum soil disturbance. Pest
control and weed control are an integral part of CA and an ecosystem needs
to be developed in the fields – this may take some time to work out what
the best mix and level of weeds that can be tolerated, however it is evident
that pests are out of control in many fields and that monocultures with no
chemical inputs will be infested.
Conservation Agriculture CA is widely considered to have high Climate change
adaptiveness (3) attributes because it conserves soil moisture and enhances
nutrient cycling and therefore has a high Impact (3) because it is one of the few
ways of increasing yields without expensive inputs, which will by beyond the small-
scale or subsistence famer; however CA has a moderate Feasibility (2) because the
benefits are not immediate and adoption requires acquisition of new knowledge,
initially higher levels of labour (initial weeding requirements are high) and changes
in the way communal land is managed Costs (2) are moderate to low and this is
suitable for low-income small-holder famers for individual farmers or consortiums
of farmers, will certainly improve Income (2) over the medium to longer-term, but
is somewhat difficult to introduce and sustain in rural communities, therefore Local
practice (2); and mostly would just be applicable to the horticultural and cassava
value chains, while possibly resulting in suspicion and resistance from livestock-
rearing communities because it implies preventing animals from grazing on the dry
matter and permanent groundcover which is a principle of CA, giving Value chain

60
inclusivity (2) but is inherently scalable (3) across all soil-tilling farming operations
(it is a minimum or no-till operation), but once established will contribute
significantly to small-holders because of the increased production and ultimately
lower land preparation costs, therefore Cost/benefit ratio (3).
14 Encourage earlier sale of livestock droughts intensify (see drought
prediction) - before animals die. A significant indicator of climate
vulnerability is the loss of livestock during drought through the lack of
grazing and subsequent loss of condition, as well as heat stress and the
difficulty in obtaining sufficient water near grazing opportunities. However,
cultural norms are that livestock are a store of wealth and are generally not
traded but conserved as much as possible, with the end result that animals
die and the stock owner suffers a loss of wealth. The problem is largely a
cultural one.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) Earlier sales of stock will prevent total losses
through stock deaths that result during droughts, allowing the cash generated to
be banked/stored for restocking, or used for other business purposes and
therefore buffers livelihoods against substantial climate variance, as well reducing
grazing pressure on the land (destocking), making for a quicker recovery of grazing
resources after a drought, all of which will make a substantial Impact (3) in terms
of climate resilience but of moderate Feasibility (2) because of the likely
difficulties with cultural resistance; Costs (2) are moderate for individual farmers or
groups of farmers but is only possible if the establishment of slaughterhouses with
electricity access and refrigeration becomes possible (see available), such a change
in approach will certainly improve Income (3) with higher rates of throughput and
already supported by some farming communities it, but with a moderate Local
practice (2) because of deeply ingrained cultural values of holding onto as many
head of stock as possible; Value chain inclusivity (1) because it only concerns the
red meat value chain but is highly scalable (3) because the principle can be applied
across region, although priority should be given to the more arid areas first.
Cost/benefit ratio (3) is high because for relatively low inputs, substantial income
and environmental sustainability benefits will accrue, although some cultural
difficulties and slow roll-out are likely.
15 Diversification - e.g. get into high value high acceptability Okra and
Madumbis and other crops/fruits. The focus in similar crops means little
market diversification and hence price competition. For example, where
environmental conditions permit, okra does well and is well accepted in the
market, as are madumbes (Colocasia esculenta). Less reliance on traditional
Climate change adaptiveness (3) Diversification is always a method of increasing
resilience because farmers are then not relying on one or a few sources of income,
as well as trading into an oversupplied market. In the case of madumbis, which
require wetland conditions, these plants survive flooding very well. They are a
likely candidate for soils that are often waterlogged Impact (3) Maintaining several

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crops and more on diversification into other crops is likely to avert
competition in the market place and result in higher incomes to small-
holders.
sources of income has significant buffering capabilities against challenging
conditions and could at least enable families to ongoing food sources when other
crops succumb to climatic challenges; Feasibility (3) is high because the
technological barrier is low and likely requires little infrastructure and Costs (2) are
very moderate but may require some market development but such an approach
will certainly improve Income (3) as well has having moderate to high Local
practice (2), although the cultural tendency to stay with traditional crops may exist;
Value chain inclusivity (1) is however low because it only applies to horticulture,
but can be increased with focus into the cassava and red meat value chains.
Diversification it has moderate levels of Scalability (2) because such changes may
not be applicable everywhere – i.e. is harder to apply in the cassava and red meat
value chains unless unique opportunities become available. The Cost/benefit ratio
(3) is very likely high because of the likely low cost requirements, but which can
result in significant benefits to the farming community.
16 Access to improved seeds/ seedlings / outgrower practices: A number of
smallholder farmers, as well as extension officers, spoke of the need to
improve the quality of the horticultural stock with improved seedling
quality. The expertise needs to be developed locally, which should then
allow local businesses to compete successfully with South Africa suppliers
who can produce high quality seedlings at lower prices than can be
achieved locally.
Climate change adaptiveness (2) is moderately high with improved cultivars and
drought or heat tolerance, however, improved horticultural stock will have a
significant Impact (3) in improving quality and quantity of horticultural produce –
and with a Feasibility (3) that is high as the technology is well relatively well
understood although Costs are relatively high (2) because it requires particular
type of infrastructure has relatively high costs for individual farmers; but it will
certainly improve Income (3) of farmers and already in use in places and farming
communities and extension officers expressed support for it, giving a moderately
high Local practice (2); however Value chain inclusivity (1) is low because it only
applies to horticulture, and similarly has moderate levels of Scalability (2) because
the ability to roll out the technology only within the horticultural areas and that
means areas where irrigation if also available, but will have a high Cost/benefit
ratio (3) because with relatively few inputs, the quality of fresh produce could be
raised significantly, with a better chance of selling product into the supermarkets of
Maputo, rather than just the open air markets where most of these producers
currently sell their produce.

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17 More infield irrigation - especially with water efficient means – drip: One
of the biggest problems with agricultural production southern Mozambique
is the lack of water, especially in the horticultural sector, but which could
usefully be applied to cassava, which, although somewhat drought tolerant,
would also benefit from the application of water. The irrigation system
comprised of canals has been severely damaged by flooding and lack of
maintenance but is exceptionally expensive to rehabilitate. It might make
more sense to install more efficient ways of delivering water to the plants.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) The lack of irrigation is one of the most
significant restraints on improved reduction and climate resilience, not only to dry
conditions but also anomalously hot conditions; the Impact (3) is high because high
temperatures and variable rainfall are some of the biggest problems faced in the
horticultural industry; Feasibility (2) is moderate to high feasible because the
technology is well understood although Costs (2) are relatively high this type of
infrastructure has relatively high costs for individual farmers and farming groups;
but it will certainly improve Income (3) as production quantities increase
substantially (although weeds will likely respond similarly, it has a high Local
practice (3), farmers already recognise the need for supplementary water and the
fact that some farming groups complained that while a water source existed
nearby, they couldn’t even get some of that water to field edge was a substantial
drawback to improved production; Value chain inclusivity (2) is however moderate
to low because it applies mostly to horticulture but in frequent cases could be
rolled out to cassava farmers – who have other crops which need supplementary
irrigation, and has moderate levels of Scalability (2) because sufficient sources of
water are not available everywhere and requires reasonably substantial financial
outlays; and will therefore have a moderate Cost/benefit ratio (2) because of the
cost requirements, which will need to be amortised and possibly relatively frequent
replacement – the irrigation could also be (likely) damaged in flooding.
18 Rollout of improved cassava stock. Current or the older cultivars of cassava
are beset by cassava mosaic disease (CMD) and have low yields, as evidence
in the field showed. The newer varieties have substantially more vigour.
Higher-yielding varieties will bring increased production to the farmer for
the same amount of work. Post-harvest processing and better access to
markets must follow, however to take full advantage of the increased yield.
Climate change adaptiveness (3) Cassava performance can be substantially
improved to be more resistant to CMD, have higher levels of heat tolerance and
lower production of cyanogenic glucosides – the plant tends to produce more of
these toxins during higher temperature and drought conditions; Impact (3)
substantial yield improvements are possible; Feasibility (3) is highly feasible
because the technology is well understood although roll out is relatively slow
because regeneration is undertaken vegetatively by transferral of root stock and
not by production of seeds from specialised plant breeding facilities, therefore
Costs (2) are moderate but cannot be undertaken by individual farmers or groups
of farmers, nevertheless, the yield increases result in improved Income (3) to
individual farmers and the adaptation is already in use in places and farming

63
communities expressed support for it, giving a high Local practice (3); however this
adaptation concerns only cassava Value chain inclusivity (1) and therefore
provides a moderate level of Scalability (2), also because the speed at which new
cultivars can be rolled out is limited by the availability of vegetative root stock in
demand by a large number of people and Cost/benefit ratio (2) because post-
harvest technologies and the market access is not necessarily improving with the
same rapidity.

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6. Adaptations in the value chains
6.1. Adaptations in the red meat value chain
6.1.1. Climate risks and related pressures
The following factors intensify the effect of climate risks:
 Reduced biomass during dry weather/droughts results in malnutrition and ultimately
mortality in animals. Animals that survive these dry periods lose substantial condition, resulting
in lower reproduction rates and lower prices received at stock sales.
 Overstocking leads to overgrazing. As stocking numbers have increased in the landscape, there
are smaller quantities of pasture available per animal, the herders have to work hard to find new
pastures to ensure survivability of the herd. During the recent drought (2015-2016), a significant
proportion of livestock died due to a lack of grazing and water supply. This had a big impact on
the people, since livestock are a store of people’s wealth.
 People are reticent to sell their animals in hard times. It appears that livestock owners try to
maintain their wealth by conserving stock numbers even as the drought progresses, unable to
stop their animals from losing condition and ultimately succumbing to hunger, physiological
stress and disease.
 Stock monitoring is required for better rangeland management. There is currently no census of
large stock animals on the land – only broad estimates. Stock numbers need to be determined
through surveys in order to provide a picture of the grazing pressure. This may lead to improved
management of rangelands. Provincial services - for example in Xai Xai - are responsible for
measuring economic activity. Livestock counting is undertaken by a provincial technician,
therefore stock numbers exist at province level down to post-administrative level, but not at the
community level. The important detail needs to be captured at the community level regarding
local stocking densities and pressures on the grazing resources.
 Rangeland management practices are problematic. There is a lack of data on species
composition of rangeland grasses – such as the proportion of increases and decreases, their
quality and productivity. The last survey was done in the 1970s, according to interviewees. A
new survey is urgently required. Strategies aimed at improving the productivity of the
grasslands is dependent on doing this. There are currently no detailed maps of rangeland
composition or rainfall maps which could be used to manage rangeland productivity.
 Haymaking for storage of fodder is done manually. This means that the required compression
of hay bales does not reach that which is possible through mechanisation. This means that not
enough feed can be stored for the dry season. Fodder banking is still at a micro-level of
enterprise but is one of the strategies which could be used to cope with climate change.
 Reduced water availability during times of drought leads to stock mortality. Livestock farmers
must continuously move animals from pastures to watering points and back again over
substantial distances, leading to a loss of condition.
The following socio-economic issues increase the effect of these climate-related risks:

65
 Watering of stock using boreholes increases stocking rates. Boreholes are used for domestic
purposes and livestock watering. The increase in access to borehole water does lead to
increases in stocking rates, which cannot be sustained even under current stocking rates and
climate variability.
 Animal health services are not sufficient to address climate-related health issues. Dehydration
and malnutrition negatively affect the condition of animals, resulting in quality issues (it is
thought that this affects prices, but some research into price signals, which is not readily
available, is needed to validate this). Animal health services are insufficient to meet local needs
- there are vets at the district level, but often not at a local level and there is a high level of stock
loss to a variety of diseases. Dipping tanks are about the only relatively wide-spread
intervention in animal diseases but even these are mostly in disrepair. Community Animal
Health Workers (CAHW) support the communities, however, in some of the outlying towns such
as Chicualcuala, Chokwe, and others, interviewees report that the system is not working well.
 Destocking is a logical solution but a complex process in practice. The stocking density is the big
issue in this region and needs to be reduced urgently. Additionally, the area of land which can be
used for grazing should be delineated. However, the destocking process is complicated by
various social and economic factors:
 Destocking is complicated by cultural values. Livestock farmers tend to hold onto their
stock as a store of wealth as long as possible for cultural reasons. Moving to a system of
higher throughputs of livestock and revenue generation requires a cultural change,
which is hard to achieve.
 Destocking is complicated by market dynamics. Destocking could be achieved through
commercialisation, i.e. the use of stock sales to increase revenue generation. There are
some complex dynamics in the market, however, for example price limits. The
community sets the price per kg of meat in a market forum, which is set up with meat
traders and is used in a cattle fair. Traders know when the community is stressed and
likely to sell at lower prices, and they can force the price down to the disadvantage of
the individual stock owners. Stock owners may be reluctant to sell if they perceive the
price to be too low.
 The meat cold chain is under-developed. There are currently abattoirs in Mabalane,
Mapai and Chicualacuala, but they are without refrigeration facilities. Development of
refrigeration facilities for Mapai is underway but is awaiting a line of credit to obtain the
necessary equipment. Under current conditions, slaughtering (under poor conditions)
takes place on Wednesdays in Mapai and the train comes that day and carcasses are
then loaded. On other days there is no activity. If refrigeration facilities existed, income
to the abattoir could rise as throughput of animals increased. Where there are no
refrigeration facilities, throughput of animals is reduced on purpose to lower the risk of
few sales of carcasses and their subsequent loss through decay. The lack of refrigeration
facilities is a bottleneck in terms of stock turn-over and destocking. It also likely affects a
cultural transition to an acceptance of stock farming, sales, and renewal, rather merely
as a store of wealth that could (and often is) substantially depleted through the impacts
of drought and disease. Other issues affecting the implementation of refrigeration are

66
the lack of financial skills for managing the lines of credit necessary to implement such
infrastructure and project management. At present, a contract for implementation is
under negotiation.
 Cattle fairs require further investigation/ promotion. The main way of livestock sales is
through market fairs or cattle fairs. This means that there is a need for the development
of a physical facility for herding, penning, sorting and weighing cattle at the place of sale.
The physical facilities are required as a means of inserting a measure of fairness to the
process so that the sale price more truly reflects the mass of animal sold. Some of the
cattle traded here go to slaughter in Maputo, whilst others are used for breeding. There
is a higher level of activity along the rail corridor where there are two trains per week.
Otherwise, cattle are moved by truck. The DEA and others are still discovering issues are
in terms of the efficiency and effectiveness of these fairs. A mid-term review will take
place to evaluate this.
6.1.2. Adaptation priorities
 Use commercialisation (getting animals into the value chain) to reduce stocking densities, and
increase rangeland productivity.
 Support the transition of the approach of the livestock owners from one of retention (linked to
wealth-ownership) to one of commercialisation – selling stock regularly and generating revenue
which can be spent on other goods and services, and/or saved.
 The expansion and availability of rural banks or micro-banking are also needed for depositing
and withdrawing cash. The lack of rural banking services was called “a crisis of growth” by
Former President Armando Guebuza and it remains so. The number of branches of commercial
banks remains low because many are loss-making. The lack of these facilities will inhibit the
roll-out of higher levels of revenue.
 Livelihood diversification is required to support the reduction of stocking rates. Diversification
strategies must be site-specific, for example, greater food production near a water source. The
nature of options depends on local issues, which varies from place to place. Strategies could
include market linkages between the three value chains.
 Infrastructure to support destocking needs to be in place i.e. roads to get animals out, abattoirs
with refrigeration and storage facilities, and therefore electricity access.
 Move veterinary services (drugs and pharmaceuticals) closer to the communities.
 Consider changes to health approaches – such as spray races rather than dipping tanks for tick
control.
 Evaluate the changes of stocking densities over time (monitoring and evaluation) and take
appropriate actions to increase the destocking rate.
 Rangeland assessments to establish the carrying capacity of the range.
6.1.3. Geographical areas for prioritisation

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The area of prioritisation of efforts into securing the red meat industry and supply chain in southern
Mozambique should be made in accordance with those administrative areas (Postos) given in Figure
13 below:
Figure 13: Priority areas (Postos) for value chain interventions - red meat and horticulture.
These particular areas were chosen on the basis that they are areas where there is a loss of
vegetation cover due to drought. This means that these areas experience the heaviest use and most
intense deprivation during the drought, i.e. too high an animal density for the ability of the
vegetation to support the dependent animals.

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6.2. Adaptations in the Horticulture value chain
Drought is a significant constraint on the horticulture value chains. Production is affected by
the lack of water, but is also affected by periodic floods.
The following factors intensify the effect of this climate risk:
 There is limited irrigation in the horticulture sector. According to various stakeholders, the lack
of irrigation is the biggest constraint in the horticulture sector and value chain.
 The existing irrigation schemes are located in the flood plains, and therefore most of
these are flood irrigation. In other areas, minor amounts of agriculture take place on
river banks and seasonally wet areas, where capillary action keeps the root zones moist.
 Water-use charges have been instituted in some areas, but not in others. Interventions
in the irrigation sector are mostly towards rehabilitation since years of neglect and flood
damage has reduced productivity. This applies mainly to the irrigation system on the
Limpopo River flood plain where there is an extensive set of canals that transfer water
from Barragem to Limpopo. These canals are currently being upgraded.
 There are no sprinkler irrigation systems, and water is distributed by gravity and furrow.
Drip irrigation is starting to make an appearance in places and has been accepted by
some users. People like drip irrigation because it uses minimal water and is useful for
growing tomatoes and peppers. Drip irrigation also requires less labour and less water,
which is therefore a useful strategy.
 Irrigation systems for horticultural products remain deficient and production is lost
because of their frequent failures. The rehabilitation of the irrigation schemes is a
priority of government. The current strategy of PROSUL is that the upgrade of irrigation
systems needs to be completed before investment into other agricultural needs.
Because of the size of the investment required, this is not necessarily the best option to
take, a strategy of considering lower-cost options may provide faster efficiency and
income gains for the farmers benefiting from the investment.
 Market access is limited. The government is promoting commercialisation of horticultural
products. At present, most are for domestic consumption or for sale in local markets. There is
also a move towards the higher value crops such as cucumbers because they have a greater
“acceptability” in the market. A lack of market access to sell produce is a substantial and
ongoing constraint. Horticultural products go into a “common market” which then links to bigger
markets. There is a negativity amongst farmers over contracts with supermarkets and other
markets in Maputo (45kms away). Farmers have little or no pricing power. This means a drive
for efficiency is required by the farmers and the government needs to assist them in achieving
greater efficiencies.

69
 Temperature extremes affect plant growth. December temperatures are usually very high.
Shade cloth is needed to moderate high temperatures that are pervasive in the region for the
grow-out of seedlings and for the growth of higher-value crops such as cucumber. Shade cloth
schemes are growing and their product is targeted at the higher value markets of Maputo. The
shade cloth used is usually a low-cost type, erected at farmers own cost with own funding for
crops that cannot be grown outside of shade cloth. Such crops include cucumber, red/yellow
peppers and lettuce. At present the only market for these crops is Maputo.
 South African produce is a significant competitor. Large commercial farmers can produce higher
quality goods at lower cost – they have significantly higher efficiencies. Local farmers have high
fixed costs (manual labour is more expensive than mechanisation), low bargaining power and
limited technology. Distance from the markets reduces competitiveness. The larger-scale
farmers go to South Africa to get high-quality commercial seedlings. The Mozambican farmers
cannot grow enough of their own seedlings of sufficient quality at present to undertake local
seedling.
 Farms are often too small for maximum productivity. Economists have determined that about
0.6ha is required for a family unit to be productive and profitable (DNEA interview). Farm sizes
range from 0.2 -0.6ha, with most farms being around 0.2ha.
 Developing the irrigation infrastructure. This is a known adaptation strategy and should be
rolled out further.
 Consideration of encouraging drip irrigation in areas further away from the major irrigation
areas, or as an option for supplying water at significantly lowered costs than the large
infrastructure that presently requires expensive rehabilitation);
 Ongoing roll-out of shade cloth options, along with better seed quality and seedlings, produced
locally and not imported;
 The development of post-harvest storage facilities to keep produce as fresh as possible before
transfer to markets;
 Roads and road access across the region are required to improve access – these are proving
impassable during the rainy season and hinder the transportation of products;
 Diversification, with other products that apparently have an attraction in the market place –
madumbis and okra. Madumbis are flood resistant and grow well in damp or partially saturated
conditions.
The reader is referred to Figure 13 in Section 6.1.3. These areas are selected due to their proximity
to the major markets, their exposure to flooding in the flood plains of the Limpopo River basin, and
their capacity for irrigation potential.

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6.3. The cassava value chain
The key concerns related to the cassava value chain in southern Mozambique include:
 Productivity and product quality is currently too low for emerging industrial markets;
 The roll-out of drought-resistant, CMD-free and high yield varieties is limited by the slow process
of producing sufficient root-stock and the requirement for vegetative reproduction;
 Poor soil fertility;
 Limited access to support services, including mechanisation;
 Due to cassava’s perishability, there is a need for locally-based processing facilities. Such
facilities can be built at a relatively low cost but would allow for product storage. This means the
product can be sold or traded at the behest of the product owners and therefore the product is
not in need of an urgent market. This is a significant adaptation and could make a big difference
to the farmers.
 The climate risks in southern Mozambique include rising air temperatures, with the likelihood
of higher maximum temperatures, more frequent heatwaves and a changing rainfall regime
that includes more intense rainfall but longer dry periods in between rainfall. Little is known
about how cassava reacts to higher temperatures, possibly lower rainfall and an increase in the
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. A concern is whether the concentration of cyanogenic
glycosides in the tubers and leaves increases during drought conditions or increased
temperatures. Further research is required on this particular issue over the longer term with
elevated carbon dioxide concentrations because it has a C3 photosynthetic carbon cycle and
elevted CO2 concentrations also increases water use efficiency (Way et al., 2014) (El-Sharkawy,
2004). The implication for the concentrations of glycosides is unknown at present. For example,
further processing would be required. A literature search has not yielded answers on this
problem.
 Heat stress in the field remains a problem for farmers. The members of the farming associations
cited rotting of roots infield, as well as plants wilting, as a result of high temperatures. Increasing
temperatures are likely to intensify this problem.
 Diseases and Pests. Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) was evident in some of the older fields.
CMD is spread by a whitefly, an activity of which is certainly controlled by environmental
conditions. Temperature is the most significant control on the activity levels of whiteflies
(Fauquet and Fargette, 1990). Higher temperatures speed up the whitefly activity. CMD has the
biggest effect on reducing cassava productivity. The cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti
was observed in the field, as was high levels of the ant Crematogaster spp. While biological
controls are known to exist for mealybugs, these ants are antagonists and higher temperatures
also increase the ant activity, which was also relayed to the research team by at least one of the
groups on the farmer's associations. Farmers in the associations with high-yielding cultivars and
relatively disease-free plants try to encourage neighbouring farmers with CMD to destroy their

71
plants and plant the improved, CMD-free plants – however, diseased plants do co-exist with
disease-free plants, making the likelihood of infection of the disease-free cassava greater.
 Flooding impacts on plant health. Heavy rains which result from severe weather systems, such
as cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean region, cause water logging. This results in pest
infestations on stressed plants. While farmers perceive cyclone frequencies to be increasing
(which is true for the recent past), the likely frequencies of major storms are not confirmed by
climate projection models and thus the prognosis is currently undetermined.
 High temperatures lead to faster decay post-harvest. In post-harvest conditions, high ambient
temperatures lead to faster product decay and lower quality of produce.
 Post-harvest technologies are at present limited to simple washing, pressing and drying of
shredded cassava under rudimentary conditions in small factories. The shredded and dried
material may be stored under exposed conditions within the factory, where it is exposed to
attack by insect pests. These were very visible and lead to a substantial loss of production in
other dried products such as cow peas. Petrol-driven machines are used to grind the shredded
material to a coarse-ground meal called raale, which is then bagged and sealed by hand. A finer-
ground flour is also made but only on demand, because it is more expensive and sales are very
limited (although one association mentioned that the flour is sold at a lower price than raale,
making it an uneconomical product. The petrol-driven machines used for processing are
expensive to maintain and repairs take a long time.
 Sale and trade stages. The ground and bagged cassava are stored on site and bulk sales are
made where possible. Sales are slow, the product is unbranded, and it is mostly used for local
consumption, although some product has gone to the major centres such as Maputo. Trade is
sometimes done with other goods, for example, at one of the associations a trade had been
done for packets of low quality soap. No cash was used in this deal. This meant that the farming
association had the responsibility of reselling the soap, but did not have any liquidity from their
cassava-growing efforts to purchase other items or reinvest in their own business interests.
The following factors intensify the effect of these climate risks:
The analyses conducted and presented in Figures 9, 10 and 11 show how the recent drought
progressed over the 2015-2016 period. The images indicate the relative losses of vegetation cover in
the region, which is the indicator of loss of primary productivity (carbohydrates – pasture). The
sequences clearly indicating the developing losses over the sequence of years and in comparisons
between seasons. The more orange-red colours indicate increasing levels of householder and
livestock farmer impact on biomass and primary productivity. The most vulnerable districts are in
that area immediately west of Maputo Province and north up the Limpopo River basin. Even though
the region is naturally semi-arid or arid-humid, it experiences the deepest change in surface cover
conditions caused during very low rainfall periods.
In the Mabalane District, for example – the high levels of isolation that result from a few poor roads
made worse during the wet season and heavy rainfalls increase the levels of vulnerability. Transport

72
routes to the major markets are poor and Mabalane is poorly integrated into the national economy.
In the Chigubo District, the challenging climate combines with poor soils, which are mostly very
sandy and water retention is poor. Also in the same area, hardpans are visible and the solonetz soils
there restrict drainage, which is a useful characteristic during rains and the slow-draining soils then
enable some levels of agricultural production. Nevertheless, the hot and dry seasons prove very
challenging.
The location and impacts of flooding are easily understood. Assets – homes, farms and livestock
located on the Limpopo River floodplain, as well as some of its tributaries, are very exposed to
severe floods and are severely damaged when they do so. Severe floods occur in this region about
once in every seven to ten years. The combination of flooding potential and droughts combine to
increase vulnerability. Flooding can compound the damages to agricultural resources that have
already been exposed by preceding droughts, severely damaging plots along watercourses that
provide the most productive agricultural land, especially in the semi-arid areas. These communities
are then faced with major costs of rehabilitation, which in the majority of cases is just not possible
and permanent productivity declines result.
In the longer term, as the temperatures in the region increase, degradation will progress in the form
of aridification. Drought resistance in crops will be the key climate change response in the cassava
production, while closer attention will have to be given to getting water to field edge and using
artificial means of reducing temperatures – through shading where possible, in the horticultural
value chains.
Behavioural norms and cultural concerns practices hinder the roll out of new techniques and
technologies. The obvious example in this region is the keeping of cattle as a store of wealth, even
in the face of adversity, only to see them die at higher rates during times of climate adversity,
resulting in severe setbacks to the owners. This cultural practice presents a challenge when trying to
encourage livestock farmers to change to farming livestock for revenue generation, i.e. creating
throughput and using cattle to turn over revenue, or bank wealth when climate conditions turn
difficult. It is important to design adaptation interventions consultatively with local communities to
ensure that their cultural concerns and existing knowledge are incorporated into the design, which
will increase effectiveness. Achieving PROSUL goals in the red meat value chain means, in part,
changing these cultural practices. They also go against effective climate change adaptation and
reduce resilience because so much wealth is destroyed as animals die. Overcoming such cultural
practices could have a significant impact, but will require protracted re-engagements with the target
markets. If approaches are seen to work in a way which does not go against cultural norms, the
adaptation is likely to be easier. Cultural issues apply across all three value chains but are by far the
strongest in the livestock farming activity. Cultural norms are hard to shift even in the face of strong
evidence but will deliver significant benefits.
The lack of labour in certain aspects of farming operations remains a constraint. Horticultural
farmers reported occasional shortages but it was most prevalent in the cassava farming community.
 Stem cuttings do not store well. Harvesting is labour-intensive and labour can be in short
supply. The harvested roots are bulky and can perish quickly (FAO, 2008). Because of its

73
vegetative reproduction, the development and adoption of new improved varieties is slow (Dias,
2012).
 Access to markets is limited, but growing. The value chain in Inhambane Province is one mostly
of domestic supply. Distances are too large to get fresh cassava to major markets, and traders
have most of the pricing power (Dias, 2012). However, the situation is changing apparently.
2SCALE (2015a) report the existence of a Dutch Agricultural Development Trading Company
(DADTCO) cassava processing facility in Inhambane province. This facility converts fresh cassava
roots into cassava cake, processing 100 tonnes of cassava roots every week. Several thousand
farmers have registered and PROSUL is “on board” (2SCALE, 2015b). It was also reported that
farmers are paid on delivery of their produce. Farmers are of the view that while they may get
paid more regularly working through DADTCO, prices achieved are low. Mobile units are also
planned. The gender balance is also being addressed, with 25% of the sales being targeted
towards women farmers. 2SCALE (2015a) report that new or improved varieties developed by
IIAM can deliver four times the yield of traditional varieties. The increased yield of the new
varieties was also observed in the field. New varieties were healthy, disease-free, larger and
more vigorous than the older versions. The International Fertiliser Development Centre (IFDC)
are also researching suitable fertilisers for use in these areas. Lead farmers are multiplying
cuttings of the improved varieties for further local distribution as a way of accelerating adoption
of the improved varieties (2SCALE, 2015b).
 The first key adaptation is to continue rolling out the new high-yielding, CMD-free
cultivars. According to some reports, new cultivars produce up to four times that of older,
CMD-infected material. Ongoing breeding of drought-resistant, high-yield varieties and the
propagation of these makes a material difference to the farmers primarily engaged in
cassava farming. The high-yield varieties reduce labour requirements by producing more
product for less input and have improved qualities, which makes preparation prior to
cooking easier. However, the value chain requires attention. For considerable effort,
cassava farmers receive low value in the markets and other sources of income should be
investigated. Increased production of citrus is one possibility.
Production of Coconut milk. Adaptations with longer time horizons but potentially of considerable
future value is the possible production of coconut milk. There is a growing market for plant-based
milk as a dairy alternative. The global market is projected to rise from US$8.8 billion in 2015 to
US$19.5 billion by 2020 and US$35 billion by 2024 (Whipp and Daneshkhu, 2016). This demand is
increasing for a variety of reasons – including lactose intolerance in Asian countries and the newly
rising demand for high-fat health foods in Western countries. There is a large deficit emerging in the
market and prices for coconut milk are likely to rise substantially. It is acknowledged that
Mozambique has a significant problem with Coconut Yellowing Lethal Disease (CYLD), but this could
be investigated and resistance to the diseases managed through judicious management practices

74
(Bila, 2016). Mozambique has enormous coconut resources, especially in the cassava growing areas.
A coconut milk industry could bring significant income gains to local farmers in those areas.
The eastern coastal areas remain the preferred cassava production zone because of its relative
distance from the major markets.
7. Conclusions
Climate modelling has indicated a high likelihood of rising temperatures in the region as an effect of
climate change. The analyses indicate how higher temperatures will impact on the quality and yields
of agricultural products, however, adaptation projects may mitigate some of the effects of higher
temperatures. There is less confidence about the outlook on rainfall, since there are currently few, if
any, models that can predict the likely trend in severe storms such as cyclones, or the future
frequency of severe floods in the Limpopo River basin.
Fieldwork has provided valuable insights into the constraints and barriers that face farmers. The use
of the MCDA as a means of ranking these in terms of importance and likely benefits could allow
PROSUL and others to gain some insight as to where their priorities should lie. However, it is
acknowledged that the PROSUL staff, being closer to the problems that farmers are facing, may
disagree with some of these rankings. This is accepted, and new prioritisations can be made on the
basis of their expert input.
The study and MCDA process indicate that the most significant ways in which climate resilience can
be developed in the PROSUL project area are through assisting with the improvement of
infrastructure. This includes greater access to and use of water, whether to irrigate horticulture,
improve water availability in the cassava value chain, or for stock watering. Another short-coming in
improving incomes to farmers in the value chains remain one of getting products into the various
markets. This is partly due to a lack of post-harvest processing facilities, availability of a sufficient
number and quality of abattoirs, as well as refrigeration capacity. This implies access to electrical
infrastructure and the development of renewable energy sources to power such infrastructure.
Renewable energy installations remain an expensive option if grid electricity is potentially available.
Infrastructure is climate adaptive and increases resilience to climate change by enabling buffers in
the value chains.
Improvements in the quality of products will benefit farmers since their produce will be more
competitive in the markets. The red meat value chain does not operate optimally or derive
significant revenue for its stakeholders. This is partly due to a lack of capacity and resources. Animals
die during challenging climate conditions such as drought, partly because stock owners have little
capacity to reduce stock numbers. Stock owners then lose significant wealth. Having high stock
numbers during a deepening drought degrades the grazing resources at a faster pace. This is
exacerbated by the cultural practice of storing all wealth in livestock.
The horticultural and cassava value chains will improve, and become more resilient to the climate if
farmers are able to obtain more water and irrigate their crops during times of need. Farmers will

75
also benefit if greater quantities of their produce, at better quality, can infiltrate the market systems.
The field work and MCDA outputs also indicate the benefits of diversification, as it appears that
competition in the value chains, especially in that of cassava, results in low returns to the farmers.
7.1. Key recommendations
 The first key focus should be on enabling infrastructure. This includes: Access to water
where possible, for irrigation; electrification for the development of processing facilities and
cold storage such as abattoirs with high standard slaughter protocols.
 Consider using lower cost options for undertaking specific actions. This includes installing
spray races for dipping cattle instead of dip tanks, many of which, if not most, are
inoperable, leading to higher rates of animal disease. Similarly, some of the heavy
investment required for the rehabilitation of the canals in the irrigation system could be
used to develop water-efficient drip irrigation. This would be especially useful where
boreholes are the best sources of water, and where water needs to be used sparingly.
Horticultural production could be expanded into areas away from the currently accepted
irrigation areas.
 Focus on the most vulnerable areas first. The figures on vulnerability mapping and priority
areas for interventions are given in the text. These show the areas hardest hit by the recent
drought and are areas where there is likely to be repeated shocks to householder wealth
and income from climate challenges.
7.1.1. Promoting climate-resilient agriculture
Climate-resilient agriculture can only be promoted when all the various participants and
stakeholders understand what has to be done. There is potential to improve the entire value chain
and not just components of it. Using “the chain is only as strong as its weakest link” analogy, climate
adaptations, along with the other PROSUL objectives, such as increasing farmer income, must
consider the whole value chain.
One objective is not to replace what is already being undertaken with something completely new
but to incrementally drive change in ways that is acceptable to a traditionally conservative society.
People will adopt new practices more readily when they see that these practices are working in their
neighbour’s fields, rather than being told by “outsiders” what to do. Projects and adaptation
strategies need to address farmers’ priorities and not create artificial or new priorities or diversions
of their interests, since once external support is removed, the enterprise fails (see for example
Eucker and Reichel, 2012). The objective then is to try and provide technical options through a
demand-driven approach i.e. the farmers have seen a practice working and benefiting someone they

76
know and trust. The DNEA already understand this, it is a matter of persisting with what they already
know is right. However, it is acknowledged that resources for continuous support are scarce.
7.1.2. Providing for knowledge management
Knowledge management in the context of the PROSUL programme can be usefully defined as the
achieving of organisational objectives on climate change by, inter alia, the sharing of knowledge.
This includes what should be known, who should know it and especially in terms of adaptation: what
solutions work, what does not work (and the reasons for it) and what can be done about it.
As above for reducing the negative effects of climate variability on agriculture, knowledge
management for climate change adaptation needs to include the promotion of an understanding of
climate change impacts on the whole value chain. It is helpful to take a systematic point of view,
such as using the 1st
to 4th
order cascade of climate impacts (Petrie et al., 2014 see Figure 14). This
method examines the flow-through of climate effects (such as rising temperatures, the frequency of
severe storms, changing wind velocities and other the basic climatic parameters) at the 1st
level. The
2nd
order impacts are the processes in physical and biotic environments, including soils and water
resources, and groundwater (for example it is important to understand the impact of rising
temperatures on soil carbon and hence water retention and fertility). This cascades through to the
3rd
order, which is ecosystem services, agricultural productivity, crop and livestock health,
infrastructure and other components of the socio-economic system. Finally, in the 4th
order, human
health, livelihoods, poverty, coping strategies, conflict, most vulnerable people, interactions with
other drivers of change, and the macro-economy are considered. Only by understanding the way in
which impacts flow through from the 1st
order of climate parameters to the 4th
order concerning
human livelihoods can the scope of the problem be appreciated, and possible points of intervention
be determined. This 1st
to 4th
order structure, described by (Petrie et al., 2014), has been applied
across the SADC region successfully, for example in Botswana. The key point is that it scopes the
cascade of impacts and these can be applied in different contexts.
It is possibly useful to set up, within PROSUL, a semi-formal entity that regularly discusses these
elements of climate change and how they impact on the different projects within PROSUL and in
CEPAGRI. Therefore it must include issues such as gender and land tenure (we are not certain on
what the link between climate change and land tenure might be at present, but an open mind
should be kept).

77
Figure 14: The First to fourth order model/schema of climate impacts Source: (Petrie et al., 2014).
7.1.3. Developing capacity within CEPAGRI on a regional climate change agenda
The lessons learned through PROSUL’s engagement on the issues of adaptations to climate change
have much to teach CEPAGRI and the world. Adaptations to climate change throughout the world
have been fraught with failures and difficulties. People want to know what the impacts of climate
change in different places might be (as opposed to the effects of normal climate variations and
making that distinction is exceptionally important). People also want to know what adaptation
solutions work, what doesn’t work and why. Therefore CEPAGRI should consider setting up a core
committee, group or team to address the issues in terms of documenting what is happening and
then presenting the findings in appropriate regions.
Conversely, CEPAGRI needs to learn what is happening elsewhere in the region concerning climate
change, and feed this information back into the Mozambican context. Therefore, the members of
this group should be given opportunities to attend specific conferences, make their own
presentations, and learn from what is happening elsewhere such that they might bring this
knowledge back to CEPAGRI, and diffuse it back into the system (see the item on knowledge
management above). The flow of information must be two-way and members of CEPAGRI must be
visible and have the ability to present and discuss the CEPAGRI and Mozambican concerns. Capacity
development within CEPAGRI on the regional climate change agenda will take place when their
members play an active role in the various fora concerning climate change.

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9. Appendices
9.1. Appendix A: Logical framework
Deliverable (as per
ToRs)
Related Activity (as per ToRs) Detailed activities
1. Assessment of
the locations
within the target
area that are
particularly
vulnerable under
projected climate
change,
prioritizing
geographic areas
for project
interventions.
 Analysis of relevant
impacts in the project
area under different
climate scenarios for the
period 2015-2035. This
will imply, development
of climate models at a
scale of less than 50km,
based on statistical or
dynamic downscaling
and a simulation for the
project area, including
the key livestock,
horticultural and cassava
production sites.
 Data formatting,
verification and quality
control based on
historical hydro-
meteorological records.
1.1. Review available climate change scenarios for
Mozambique.
A short literature review will be produced to inform
the rest of the Activities under this deliverable.
1.2. Extract the relevant downscaled climate
projection data for Mozambique from CORDEX
archives at UCT.
To produce the downscaled information required,
the research team will extract and analyse climate
data at the 50km resolution through CORDEX, for
which CSAG is the African hub. Additionally,
statistical downscaling will also be undertaken at
specific locations in the study area where
meteorological data is available. The analysis will
also include assessment of trends in relevant
climate variables in the recent past, as for near
term climate change, these are important
additional sources of information of likely climate
changes.
1.3. Expertly interpret climate projection data.
Experts will produce scenarios for climate change
in each district. These scenarios focus on specific
climate vulnerabilities identified in Deliverable 2
(below), rather than generic precipitation or
temperature changes; for example, if particular
heat stress thresholds are important, scenarios for
changes in these thresholds will be developed.
Quality control will be exercised on raw data to
ensure that projections are defensible, avoiding
over-interpretation of resulting scenarios.
1.4. Generation of GIS layers for scenarios and
identification of vulnerability hotspots.
GIS layers will be developed showing, for each of
the expertly generated scenarios (1.3), the
frequency of occurrence of specific climate
thresholds of relevance to the three value
commodities, for use in the vulnerability mapping
(Deliverable 3).
1.5. Build capacity within the National Institute of
Meteorology (NIM).
Additional development of baseline capacity for a
technician within the NIM is recommended, and
budgeted as an optional extra service that could
be provided by the research team. Under this
option an analyst is sent to Cape Town to work
with the Lead Climate Analyst – within the Climate
Systems Analysis Group – to partly co-produce the
results for this deliverable. This training will be
structured in a way that fits with the baseline
capacity of the technician selected.
2. Analysis of the
climate change
impacts and
vulnerabilities in
the production,
harvest, and
 Review red meat and
cassava PRAs and
baseline study.
 Review recent land use
capability studies and
projected yields of
2.1. Review existing baseline studies.
Additional studies to be reviewed include the
PPCR Report. If PROSUL documents have
already been drafted, these should also be
reviewed, including: i) the “Targeting and Gender
Mainstreaming Strategy and Action Plan; ii)

81
post-harvest
phases of
livestock,
cassava and
horticulture value
chains.
horticultural, cassava and
selected pastures
nationally to provide
current land use
capability assessments
for the target districts and
highlight potential
impacts of climate
change over the next 10
and 20 years for each
value chain.
 Collection and qualitative
analysis of current loss
and damage data from
the horticultural and
cassava products in
relation to climate-related
hazards.
Participatory Rapid Appraisals; and iii) Scoping
Studies. If drafts of any of the PROSUL “Value
Chain Development Action Plans” have been
produced, these will be reviewed for key
constraints identified in each of the 3 targeted
value chains.
2.2. Review land use capability studies.
Studies to be reviewed will include “Responding to
Climate Change in Mozambique, Phase II”
(National Institute for Disaster Management,
INGC, 2012); and recent land use capability
studies by the INGC, IIAM; and ICRAF
Geoscience Lab products on topography, surface
hydrology, and soil conditions.
2.3. Collect and analyse current loss and damage
data.
If district-scale yield data are available from
relevant district or national offices, these will be
analysed to identify relationships between climate
variability and yield, and therefore loss and
damage.
2.4. Identify/confirm farm cycles and value chain
vulnerability via focus groups.
Focus groups with farmers in each district will
explore specific climate impacts on each stage of
the production cycle, and be cross referenced with
vulnerabilities identified in the document review
and loss and damage assessment (2.1-2.3).
2.5. Assess climate vulnerability of 3 value chains.
Specific climate vulnerabilities of each product will
be determined using data and evidence from 2.1-
2.4. In particular, climate phenomena (e.g. heat
stress, dry-spells, heavy rain) that affect each
stage of the production cycle from planting to
harvest and then delivery to market will be
identified.
3. Vulnerability
maps with a
preliminary
assessment of
the locations
within the target
area that are
particularly
vulnerable under
projected climate
change,
prioritising
geographic areas
for project
interventions.
 Assessment of the
locations within the target
area that are particularly
vulnerable under
projected climate
change, prioritizing
geographic areas for
Project interventions, by
analysing impacts and
vulnerabilities in the
production, harvest, and
post-harvest phases of
horticultural and cassava
products.
 Provide baseline
analysis/maps outlining
the exposure of cassava,
horticulture and pasture
systems to prevalent
climate shocks and
stresses.
3.1. Assess vulnerability of locations within target
area.
The GIS specialist will bring together the climate
scenario GIS layers (1.4.), the land capability data
(2.2.) and vulnerability information (2.4.) to identify
locations with high vulnerability under today’s
climate, and assess how this vulnerability might
shift or intensify under future climate change
scenarios.
3.2. Produce vulnerability maps.
The vulnerability maps will be the visual outputs
from 3.1. They will be produced by and the team’s
experienced GIS technician, and will be available
digitally, as hardcopy images, and also as GIS
data layers.
3.3. Prioritise project areas for geographical
interventions.
Spatial vulnerability information will be analysed
and a set of priority areas proposed and justified.
These will be presented to Programme
Management Team for discussion in terms of the
various project priorities and concerns (including
gender and land tenure concerns).
4. Identify possible
adaptation
options: selection
of the potential
responses and
 Shape the technological
and investment packages
that can reduce the
impacts of extreme
climatic events, including
4.1. Conduct focus groups/ individual interviews
with farmers.
The research team will identify how farmers are
currently adapting, and how they would like to
adapt, should they had access to the necessary

82
measures to
decrease the
impact of climate
change in the
three value
chains based on
the climate
simulations.
proposal of specific
practices and
technologies to increase
climate resilience of
production and post-
harvesting techniques.
 Formulation of
recommendations to
adapt to climate change,
based on the climate
simulations and the
analysis of possible
impacts on the project
areas.
resources.
4.2. Conduct focus groups/ individual interviews
with technical experts at district and national
level.
Researchers will identify adaptation options
currently being undertaken at district and national
levels and get input on desirable options that
require further institutional support or resources.
4.3. Conduct benchmarking exercise of adaptation
options in other local and national contexts.
A literature review will be undertaken and experts
consulted to identify adaptation options in the
target (or similar) commodities that are being
considered in other geographic areas. Innovations
that could potentially be trailed in selected project
areas will be identified.
5. Develop set of
criteria for
assessing
adaptation
options using
consultative
MCA:
Recommendation
on adaptation
responses for the
production,
harvest, and
post-harvest
phases of
livestock,
cassava and
horticulture value
chains.
 Fieldwork, participative
consultations with key
stakeholders and other
development actors (e.g.
Climate adaptation
project in the lower
Limpopo region of the
African Water Facility),
and in situ data gathering
to solicit opinions from
CEPAGRI, LSPs and
target groups about the
preliminary findings from
the analysis (cross-
checking the results from
the top-down modelling
exercise with some
bottom-up local opinion).
5.1. Produce set of criteria for assessing
adaptation options using consultative Multi
Criteria Analysis.
Researchers will consult with national-level
stakeholders - including inter alia CEPAGRI -
through individual meeting and focus groups.
Local-level stakeholders, including LSPs and
target groups, will also be consulted. A set of
criteria for assessing adaptation options will thus
be collaboratively produced. These might include
criteria such as: i) potential to reduce vulnerability
to climate impacts; ii) financial feasibility; iii) ease
of implementation; iv) danger of maladaptation; v)
co-benefits (e.g. NRM; soil health, carbon
sequestration, health); and vi) benefits across
socially differentiated vulnerable groups.
6. A set of
adaptation
options to inform
the testing of on-
farm trials and
demonstration
plots, and shape
the content of the
climate resilient
package and
FFS curricula.
 Assessment of current
techniques and coping
mechanisms used by
farmers, identification of
incentives for adoption
and content of the FFS
curricula.
6.1. Use criteria developed under 5.1 to generate
list of adaptation options.
Adaptation options will be tailored for the following
purposes:
i) Prioritising adaptation interventions for piloting
through on-farm trials will include description of
what such a test would look like (including
setup, expected benefits, inputs required etc.)
ii) Suggestions for integrating adaptation options
into the Farmer Field School curricula.
iii) Suggestions for integrating adaptation into
community-based natural resource
management plans.
7. A technical report
including maps,
key data
analysis,
modelling
assumptions,
consultations
undertaken and
limitations of the
methodology.
 Preparation of a technical
report, proposing specific
practices and
technologies to increase
climate resilience of
production and post-
harvesting techniques.
7.1. Produce technical report.
The final technical report will cover the activities
and findings across the full project. It will combine
the details and findings of Outputs 1 through 6. It
will also include an executive summary,
methodologies, and lessons learned from the
research process, to inform future research. This
extended technical report will target future
researchers and those involved in PROSUL.
A shorter final report will also be produced. The
shorter version will contain key take-home
messages relating to specific practices and
technologies to increase climate resilience,
covering production and post-harvest processes.
This shorter report will target farmers and can be
distributed to all stakeholders who took part in

83
workshops and other consultations.
7.2. Stakeholder feedback meeting(s).
Present results presented in the technical to the
Programme Management Team and other
relevant stakeholder. Discuss next steps for
disseminating knowledge generated or
implementing adaptation recommendations.

84
9.2. Appendix B: Value chain analysis
Table 2: The ranking criteria, sorted from most important to least important, for each of the
adaptations evolving out field research.
CC
Adapti
ve
Impa
ct
Feasibil
ity
Cost Inc.
Inco
me
Cult.
Fit
Value
Chain
VC
Rank
Scalab
ility
Cost/
benefit
Rank Comments
3 3 3 2 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 3 25 Better water management - le
infrastructure and more drip/m
use of water where it is neede
3 3 3 1 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 3 24 Improve access to markets – st
roads against intense rainfalls
3 3 3 2 3 3 C; H 2 3 2 24 Improved crops tolerant of hig
3 3 2 2 3 3 C; H 2 3 3 24 Increased pest control - simple
cassava mealybugs, biocontrol
needed
3 3 3 1 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 2 23 Selectively increase the numbe
domestic and small scale farmi
3 3 3 1 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 2 23 Provide nearby wells/borehole
costly maintenance of irrigatio
3 3 1 2 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 3 23 Improve transport availability
3 3 2 2 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 2 23 Improve post-harvest technolo
includes all three value chains)
3 3 2 2 3 3 C; H; L 3 2 2 23 Identify cultural concerns relat
new techniques and technolog
process
3 3 2 1 3 3 H;L 2 2 3 22 Develop refrigeration and stor
prevent spoilage in the heat an
3 3 3 2 3 3 H 1 3 2 22 Shade cloth helps bring tempe
the hot season - good for mark
3 2 3 1 3 3 L 1 3 3 22 Re-instatement of cattle dippin
cattle dips and use them (ticks
change?)
3 2 2 1 2 3 C; H; L 3 3 3 22 Increase the access to electrici
centre scales
3 2 2 1 3 2 C; H; L 3 3 3 22 Increase number and range an
extension services & officers
3 3 2 2 2 2 C; H 2 3 3 22 Increase conservation agricultu
3 3 2 2 3 2 L 1 3 3 22 Encourage earlier sale of livest
intensify (see drought predictio
animals die
3 3 3 2 3 2 H 1 2 3 22 Diversification - e.g. get into hi
acceptability Okra and Madum
crops/fruits

85
2 3 3 2 3 3 H 1 2 2 22 Access to improved seeds/ see
practices
3 3 3 2 3 3 C 1 2 2 22 Rollout of improved cassava st
3 3 2 2 3 3 C; H 2 2 2 22 More infield irrigation - especia
efficient means - drip
3 3 2 2 2 3 C; H 2 3 2 22 Research on interactions of bio
insects - ants for e.g.
3 3 2 2 2 2 C; H; L 3 3 2 22 Ongoing support for technolog
education - which takes a long
3 3 3 1 3 3 L 1 2 2 21 Local access for veterinary pha
2 3 2 2 3 3 C; H 2 2 2 21 Incremental increases in equip
labour saving devices
2 3 2 2 3 2 C; H 2 3 2 21 Increased weed control
3 3 2 2 3 1 C; H; L 3 2 2 21 Use of varied watering times, m
improves production
3 3 1 2 2 1 C; H; L 3 3 3 21 Improve drought prediction - f
system early, destock
3 2 2 2 3 3 C; H; L 3 1 2 21 Improve marketing of rale and
to retailers
3 3 2 2 2 3 C; H; L 3 1 2 21 Develop access to micro-financ
2 3 3 3 3 3 C; H 2 1 1 21 Watering cans for some comm
3 3 2 1 2 3 L 1 3 2 20 Improve veterinary services - im
made a difference
3 2 2 2 2 3 C 1 3 2 20 Diversification out of cassava w
competition in the market
3 2 2 2 3 3 L 1 2 2 20 Improve haymaking abilities / q
dry season
3 3 1 2 3 2 C;H 2 2 2 20 Mechanical traction is needed
expensive, time consuming and
security of livestock point of vi
2 2 3 2 2 1 C; H; L 3 3 2 20 Improve distribution of climati
2 2 2 2 2 2 C; H; L 3 3 2 20 Improve market information to
2 2 2 2 2 3 C; H; L 3 2 2 20 Develop technologies and proc
increasing fairness between bu
e.g. scales have made a differe
3 3 1 2 1 2 C; H; L 3 2 2 19 Integrate climate information (
change) into extension service
3 2 3 3 2 3 H 1 1 1 19 Madumbis are "flood resistant
3 3 2 1 3 3 C 1 1 1 18 Irrigation - some water could m
difference
3 3 2 1 2 3 L 1 2 1 18 Increase access to water - prob
research is needed, can oversu
ecological problems
3 3 1 1 3 2 L 1 2 2 18 Increase focus on diversifying h
so that destocking can take pla
3 2 1 2 2 1 L 1 3 2 17 Determine stock numbers as a

86
managing rangeland
3 1 2 2 2 2 L 1 3 1 17 Understand climatic influence
quality
3 3 1 1 2 1 L 1 2 2 16 Improve rangeland manageme
destocking
1 2 2 1 1 1 C; H; L 3 3 2 16 Early warnings of extreme rain
2 1 1 3 1 2 C; H; L 3 1 1 15 Strategise how to deal with "su
which drive down prices

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