This document provides guidance on project estimation. It notes that while estimation is difficult and inaccurate, it is still an important step. It recommends involving customers and the entire team to identify tasks and estimate timelines. Key aspects of the estimation process include creating wireframes, getting customer feedback, developing a work breakdown structure through a modified Delphi technique, and accounting for unknowns and risks. The overall message is that estimation requires understanding customer needs, breaking work into discrete tasks, and getting input from all parties to set expectations and plan a project.

1. Project Estimation:
Survival Guide
1

2. Johnnie Fox
Enterprise Project Manager/Strategist
Recovering Developer
Business Analyst
Project Manager
Custom Development/IOS/Drupal
$500 - $1,000,000 projects
Currently leads enterprise development team husband • geek
• photographer
for MCN
• MAKE
enthusiast •
Kayaker •
traveler•entrepre
neur •
Project Estimation:Presented by Johnnie Fox

3. Estimating Sucks
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

4. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

5. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
• It won't be correct anyhow
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

6. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
• It won't be correct anyhow
• Skipping this step is the yellow brick
road to Hell
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

7. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
• It won't be correct anyhow
• Skipping this step is the yellow brick
road to Hell
• Sets Expectations
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

8. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
• It won't be correct anyhow
• Skipping this step is the yellow brick
road to Hell
• Sets Expectations
• Directly affects customer satisfaction
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

9. Estimating Sucks
• Coders hate doing it
• It won't be correct anyhow
• Skipping this step is the yellow brick
road to Hell
• Sets Expectations
• Directly affects customer satisfaction
• Leads to good project management
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

10. Estimating Sucks
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

11. Estimating Sucks
• Good estimates increases team
morale
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

12. Estimating Sucks
• Good estimates increases team
morale
• Builds Reputations
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

13. Estimating Sucks
• Good estimates increases team
morale
• Builds Reputations
• There is no pot of gold at the end of
the rainbow unless you put it there
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

14. Estimating Sucks
• Good estimates increases team
morale
• Builds Reputations
• There is no pot of gold at the end of
the rainbow unless you put it there
• Keeps you from taking bad projects
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

16. Discovery and Design
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

17. Discovery and Design
• The good news is: its easier to estimate design
work than an unknown project.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

18. Discovery and Design
• The good news is: its easier to estimate design
work than an unknown project.
• The other good news is: Customers will pay for
good design work.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

19. Discovery and Design
• The good news is: its easier to estimate design
work than an unknown project.
• The other good news is: Customers will pay for
good design work.
• Blowing off bad customers at this point is a bonus
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

20. Discovery and Design
• The good news is: its easier to estimate design
work than an unknown project.
• The other good news is: Customers will pay for
good design work.
• Blowing off bad customers at this point is a bonus
• Discovery and Design are the highest value add in
the process.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

21. Discovery and Design
• The good news is: its easier to estimate design
work than an unknown project.
• The other good news is: Customers will pay for
good design work.
• Blowing off bad customers at this point is a bonus
• Discovery and Design are the highest value add in
the process.
• EVERY failed project skimped on these phases.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

22. 1. The problem
• What is this project anyway?
• What technologies involved
• What is involved on the clients side
• Hardware
• Hosting
• People
• Departments/managers
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

23. Customer Involvement
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

24. Customer Involvement
• Customer must be involved
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

25. Customer Involvement
• Customer must be involved
• Can be one person
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

26. Customer Involvement
• Customer must be involved
• Can be one person
• Could be multiple people, Only ONE Decision
Maker!
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

27. Customer Involvement
• Customer must be involved
• Can be one person
• Could be multiple people, Only ONE Decision
Maker!
• You know they are participating when they tell
you you have it wrong
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

28. 2. Wireframes
• Should be Low-Fi to begin with
• bigger than a napkin - get more napkins
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

29. 2. Wireframes
• Tools
• Photoshop / Omnigraffel
• Google docs/drawing
• Napkins
• I like Balsamiq Mock-ups www.balsamiq.com
• Drupal?
• Tons of others - just search
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

30. Wireframes
• Users think on screen
= magically done
• You should have a mock up of each
"type" of page.
• Each type of widget should be
mocked up
• Mock-ups should be a part of the
final design document with call outs
to explain what happens where
there is action.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

31. Wireframes
• Print them out. Users
should mark them up
• Print them
• On paper
• Put a red pen in your
users hand
• Resist the urge to
show mock-ups on screen
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

32. 3. Power of Teams
• An estimate made by anyone that does not fully
understand the work that is to be done is going to
be poor.
• Giving your team a look at the project can help you
avoid potholes
• Don't Poison the well - don't give leading information
• It is better to ask how long did this take you the last
time than "How long will this take"
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

33. 4. Estimate Time
Time only comes in 2 sizes
• 1/2 Day
• Full Day
Beware of estimates for a single item that are larger than 2 days
You DO NOT understand the steps if your estimate is larger
than 2 days.
My experience is that an estimate of 3 days will be 5 days to
weeks and weeks and weeks.....
Project Estimation Photo Credit: h. koppdelaney
http://www.flickr.com/photos/h-k-d/
Presented by Johnnie Fox

34. Did I mention that task
estimates of over 2 days
are WRONG?
Photo Credit:Bob Fomal
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fornal/406285615/

35. 5. Customer Works
• The customer must understand the functionality and appearance
of what is going to be delivered.
• You know they are participating if you get complaints
• Do not accept "Ya, thats fine"
• Customer has to be make the choices Photo credit: Amanda Slater
about compromises http://www.flickr.com/photos/pikerslanefarm/
4996863774/
• Pictures describe better than text
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

36. 6. MAKE A LIST
Modified Delphi Estimation method.
Developed by Rand Corporation in the 40's
Fancy word for list - Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS)
• Members of the team make their list of
tasks SEPARATELY
• After lists are made members meet and compare lists.
• Everyone must participate.
• If there is no conflict and you didn't get any additions you are doing it
wrong.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

37. Time estimates are like hockey:
It isn't really a game until a fight breaks out
• Estimate separately
• Fight out the
differences together Photo Credit:Peter
http://www.flickr.com/photos/psmithy/3282607845/
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

38. Examples:
Built by the underwear gnomes
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

40. About those lists
How do you create a task breakdown for something you haven't done
before?
• You can't
1.Do a prototype
2.Find someone who has done it before sub-contract/buy training
–
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

41. About those lists
• Common pitfalls:
1.Undiscovered requirements
2.Undiscovered requirements
3.Undiscovered requirements
4.Overoptimistic/pessimistic team members
5.Undiscovered requirements
6."You don't know how much you do not know"
7.Uncommitted members of team (includes customer)
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

42. If I add up all the time..its
too much
• Since the customer is involved. Let them
decide what to cut. Or to add budget.
• Add up all the time then decide if you want
to buy/discount the project
Check your assumptions
• Re-factor the solution
• Reality will not change to no matter how much you need it to or
how convenient that might be.
• Some features may have to be cut
• Some projects should be avoided.
Project Estimation Photo Credit: Anthony Kelly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/
Presented by Johnnie Fox 62337512@N00/4335060317/

43. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
1.Understand the problem
2.Make a Wireframe.
3.Make the Customer tell you why its wrong
4.Repeat steps 2 and 3 until Customer is exhausted
5.Make a list of tasks (Work Breakdown Structure)
6.Estimate time in fixed amounts
7.Use the skill of the people you work with.
8.Make a list of declined, deferred and discussed items that are NOT
included. Put this list in the contract
9.Contract should state that only features that are in the contract are
included. No others.
Project Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox

44. Extreme Programming by Kent Beck
Getting Real by 37 Signals
Applied Software Project Management by Stellman and Greene
Software Estimation by Steve McConnell

45. Cat Herder
Fire Fighter
Bad Dancer
Project Manager
Researcher
Developer
Johnnie Fox
Johnnie@musiccitynetworks.com
twitter: johnniefox