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Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Estimation:
Seizing Order from Chaos
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Johnnie Fox
Chief Technology Officer
Recovering Developer
Certified Scrum Master
Drupal/PHP/IOS/C#/
Project Strategist
Business Analyst
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Promet Source
INSERT picture of team
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
What is it
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Purpose of Estimate
• Foundation for Project Planning
• Sales Tool
• Project Planning
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Estimating Sucks
• It won’t be exact any way
• Developers hate doing it
• The final project won’t be like the estimate
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Why Estimate
• Good estimates increase morale
• Good estimates build reputations
• Good estimates
• Helps you from taking projects that
won’t be successful
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Industry Performance
Software Estimation: Demystifying the
Black Art – Steve McConnel
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Equal Chance?
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Projects are unfair
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Cone of Uncertainty
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Truism
• He that most convincingly underestimates
a project has the highest chance of being
awarded the work.
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Highly Structured
• “High structure implies that the nature of the task
defines its outputs, the possibility of users changing
their minds about the desired outputs is practically
nonexistent, and significant change management
issues are not present.” 1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). Harvard
Business Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: The
Fundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time
(Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press.
Kindle Edition.
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Loose Structure
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Types of Estimates
• Project Sizing
• Sales Estimate
• Project initiation estimate
• In project estimation
• Support estimates
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Estimating Strategies:
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Goals
• Re-usable
• Consistent format
• Able to use in SOW
• Can be used by PM/SA on Project Inception
• Margin Estimation
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Concepts
• Defensible
• To Dev Team
• To Client
• To Sales Team
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
PM Definition
• A good estimate is an
estimate that provides a clear
enough view of the project
reality to allow the project
leadership to make good
decisions about how to
control the project to hit its
targets..
McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation:
Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art
(Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536).
OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Estimation Process
• Strategies to improve Estimates
• Price what you know
• Knowing when its different?
• Ask someone who has done it before
• Examine prior projects
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Caution:
• In a study of 300 software projects,
Michiel van Genuchten reported
that developer estimates tended to
contain an optimism factor of 20%
to 30% (van Genuchten 1991).
Although managers sometimes
complain otherwise, developers
don’t tend to sandbag. theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30).
Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black
Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best
Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations
1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. Kindle
Edition
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Translating
• Clients want functionality
• Our job is to translate it into
user stories that can be used by
the team to deliver what the
client visualizes
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
WBS
• Modified Delphi Estimation method.
• Developed by Rand Corporation in the
40's
• Fancy word for list - Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS)
• Make estimate separate and then
compare
• After lists are made members meet and compare lists.  
• Everyone must participate. 
• If there is no conflict and you didn't get any additions you are
doing it wrong.
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
WBS Continued
• After lists are made members meet and
compare lists.  
• Everyone must participate. 
• If there is no conflict and you didn't get
any additions you are doing it wrong.
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
The Size of Time
• Hour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,
• Beyond 16 hrs
• You don’t know what the task is
• Easy target for “Shouldn’t this be lower?”
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Types of time
• Dev time
• Themer Time
• Project Management
• Quality Assurance
• DevOps/Sysadmin
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Minimum Cost
• Dev Ops 4 – 12 hours
• Training
• Kickoff meetings
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Standard Blocks
• Sprint 0
• Design
• Core Drupal (list)
• Contrib modules (list)
• SEO modules
• Social Sharing
• Custom features
• Workflow
• Integrations
• eCommerce
• 3rd
party
• Theming
• Desktop
• Responsive
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Standard Blocks
• Integration
• AMS (CIVI, etc)
• SSO
• Billing/eCommerce
• Training
• Dev Ops
• Project Management
• QA
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Next Steps
• Re-use estimates
• Stock assemblies?
• Factors of Scale/size
• Granularity
• Sales use only tool
• Estimation among other PMs
• Real world feedback
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Risks
• Missed requirements
• Technical Debt
• Incorrect assumptions
• Infrastructure (VPN, Server Access)
• Poor client conditions
• Uninvolved/Unresponsive
• Contact not technically savvy
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Effort per Estimate
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
Project Size
Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM
CTO Promet Source
Johnnie Fox
Johnnie@prometsource.com
twitter: johnniefox
Thank You!
@prometsource
www.prometsource.com

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Drupal cebu promet_estimation

  • 1. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Estimation: Seizing Order from Chaos
  • 2. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Johnnie Fox Chief Technology Officer Recovering Developer Certified Scrum Master Drupal/PHP/IOS/C#/ Project Strategist Business Analyst
  • 3. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Promet Source INSERT picture of team
  • 4. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM What is it
  • 5. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Purpose of Estimate • Foundation for Project Planning • Sales Tool • Project Planning
  • 6. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Estimating Sucks • It won’t be exact any way • Developers hate doing it • The final project won’t be like the estimate
  • 7. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Why Estimate • Good estimates increase morale • Good estimates build reputations • Good estimates • Helps you from taking projects that won’t be successful
  • 8. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Industry Performance Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel
  • 9. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Equal Chance?
  • 10. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Projects are unfair
  • 11. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Cone of Uncertainty
  • 12. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Truism • He that most convincingly underestimates a project has the highest chance of being awarded the work.
  • 13. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Highly Structured • “High structure implies that the nature of the task defines its outputs, the possibility of users changing their minds about the desired outputs is practically nonexistent, and significant change management issues are not present.” 1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). Harvard Business Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: The Fundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time (Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press. Kindle Edition.
  • 14. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Loose Structure
  • 15. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Types of Estimates • Project Sizing • Sales Estimate • Project initiation estimate • In project estimation • Support estimates
  • 16. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Estimating Strategies:
  • 17. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Goals • Re-usable • Consistent format • Able to use in SOW • Can be used by PM/SA on Project Inception • Margin Estimation
  • 18. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Concepts • Defensible • To Dev Team • To Client • To Sales Team
  • 19. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM PM Definition • A good estimate is an estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets.. McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.
  • 20. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Estimation Process • Strategies to improve Estimates • Price what you know • Knowing when its different? • Ask someone who has done it before • Examine prior projects
  • 21. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Caution: • In a study of 300 software projects, Michiel van Genuchten reported that developer estimates tended to contain an optimism factor of 20% to 30% (van Genuchten 1991). Although managers sometimes complain otherwise, developers don’t tend to sandbag. theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition
  • 22. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Translating • Clients want functionality • Our job is to translate it into user stories that can be used by the team to deliver what the client visualizes
  • 23. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM WBS • Modified Delphi Estimation method. • Developed by Rand Corporation in the 40's • Fancy word for list - Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) • Make estimate separate and then compare • After lists are made members meet and compare lists.   • Everyone must participate.  • If there is no conflict and you didn't get any additions you are doing it wrong.
  • 24. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM WBS Continued • After lists are made members meet and compare lists.   • Everyone must participate.  • If there is no conflict and you didn't get any additions you are doing it wrong.
  • 25. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM The Size of Time • Hour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, • Beyond 16 hrs • You don’t know what the task is • Easy target for “Shouldn’t this be lower?”
  • 26. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Types of time • Dev time • Themer Time • Project Management • Quality Assurance • DevOps/Sysadmin
  • 27. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Minimum Cost • Dev Ops 4 – 12 hours • Training • Kickoff meetings
  • 28. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Standard Blocks • Sprint 0 • Design • Core Drupal (list) • Contrib modules (list) • SEO modules • Social Sharing • Custom features • Workflow • Integrations • eCommerce • 3rd party • Theming • Desktop • Responsive
  • 29. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Standard Blocks • Integration • AMS (CIVI, etc) • SSO • Billing/eCommerce • Training • Dev Ops • Project Management • QA
  • 30. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Next Steps • Re-use estimates • Stock assemblies? • Factors of Scale/size • Granularity • Sales use only tool • Estimation among other PMs • Real world feedback
  • 31. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Risks • Missed requirements • Technical Debt • Incorrect assumptions • Infrastructure (VPN, Server Access) • Poor client conditions • Uninvolved/Unresponsive • Contact not technically savvy
  • 32. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Effort per Estimate
  • 33. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM Project Size
  • 34. Presented by Johnnie Fox CSM CTO Promet Source Johnnie Fox Johnnie@prometsource.com twitter: johnniefox Thank You! @prometsource www.prometsource.com

Editor's Notes

  1. You want that colon there? You need a subtitle? “You Don’t Get Three Guesses”?
  2. 40 people on 3 cntinents projects
  3. Estimate, Target or Commitment estimate: 1. A tentative evaluation or rough calculation. 2. A preliminary calculation of the cost of a project. 3. A judgment based upon one’s impressions; opinion.McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 324-325). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.
  4. Points here are: Estimates are inexact People don’t like doing them
  5. Benefits of estimating – planning, people are happier, less heroics, happier customers
  6. If life were fair you would have an equal chance
  7. Um, not fair the truth is that for most projects, final project will be to the right of the curve
  8. Percentages at beginning range is 16x. As you get closer to the project – more certainty
  9. Projects that are highly structured can be estimated with a high degree of confidence. Those that are not. McDonalds hamburger – highly structured
  10. Can refer to: Requirements, team sponsors, Business outcomes, “not defining” Done
  11. Is this supposed to be a spreadsheet?
  12. Bullets look weird
  13. Do you mean the word “features” in the second bullet? So you want to translate “features” into “features”? Consider a different word to bring home the translation message.
  14. WBS? What is it? Obviously this needs formatting improvement. Consider putting on two pages and putting the pic below the turquoise header. Second page can be titled “WBS, Continued”
  15. WBS? What is it? Obviously this needs formatting improvement. Consider putting on two pages and putting the pic below the turquoise header. Second page can be titled “WBS, Continued”
  16. Look at formatting. Looks weird.