Why do we see more and more heat waves (hot temperature extremes)? How is soil moisture related to these hot temperatures? How are temperatures going to change over Eastern China, and over the rest of the world? How many people will be affected by extremely hot summers in the future?
References
Mueller, B., X. Zhang , and F.W. Zwiers (2016): Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world's population within 20 years, Environmental Research Letters.Climatic Change.
Mueller, B., and X. Zhang (2016): Causes of drying trends in northern hemispheric land areas in reconstructed soil moisture data, Climatic Change.
Seneviratne, S.I., M.G. Donat, B. Mueller, and L.V. Alexander (2014): No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nature Climate Change, 4, 161-163, doi:10.1038/nclimate2145.
This presentation created and addressed by Omar Bellprat (IC3 Barcelona) in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
First appearing on the blog of Donna LaFramboise, this draft was confirmed as authentic by an IPCC spokesman, according to Justin Gills of The New York Times. Here's the blog post: http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/01/new-ipcc-leak-working-group-2s-summary-for-policymakers/
Here's Gillis's news story, which focuses on the draft's conclusions about agriculture: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies http://nyti.ms/1iBa1tR
Animal agriculture adaptation planning guide (climate change)LPE Learning Center
This 44-page publication produced by the AACC project is a planning guide to help guide farmers through the process of future farm planning considering climate change.
Format: Factsheet or Publication - Reference: Schmidt, D., E. Whitefield, D. Smith. 2014. Produced for Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Project.
What are some of the basic principles and terminology involved in climate change? Learn more about the Earth's atmosphere, energy balance, and how the greenhouse effect can alter both climate and weather. What is climate forcing? What is climate feedback? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
What is the difference when talking about weather versus climate? How do you measure and describe the atmosphere? How are models used in predicting weather or climate? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
This presentation created and addressed by Omar Bellprat (IC3 Barcelona) in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
First appearing on the blog of Donna LaFramboise, this draft was confirmed as authentic by an IPCC spokesman, according to Justin Gills of The New York Times. Here's the blog post: http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/01/new-ipcc-leak-working-group-2s-summary-for-policymakers/
Here's Gillis's news story, which focuses on the draft's conclusions about agriculture: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies http://nyti.ms/1iBa1tR
Animal agriculture adaptation planning guide (climate change)LPE Learning Center
This 44-page publication produced by the AACC project is a planning guide to help guide farmers through the process of future farm planning considering climate change.
Format: Factsheet or Publication - Reference: Schmidt, D., E. Whitefield, D. Smith. 2014. Produced for Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Project.
What are some of the basic principles and terminology involved in climate change? Learn more about the Earth's atmosphere, energy balance, and how the greenhouse effect can alter both climate and weather. What is climate forcing? What is climate feedback? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
What is the difference when talking about weather versus climate? How do you measure and describe the atmosphere? How are models used in predicting weather or climate? For more on this topic, visit: http://extension.org/60702
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityLisa Winter
This is the report submitted by Working Group II entitled "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability." This report is leading up to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report which will be released this fall.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
Incorporating Climate Tipping Points Into Policy AnalysisOECD Environment
Presentation given during the OECD Expert workshop on Economic Modelling of Climate and Related Tipping Points by Elizabeth Kopits, US Environmental Protection Agency
Impact of Future Climate Change on water availability in Kupang CityWillem Sidharno
Observed climate change could affect water availability in the future. Changes also
occurred Kupang city in recent decades, an increase in the magnitude of the damage caused
by drought due to climate change. In an attempt to explore the effects of drought can be
aggravated by climate change. in this paper, the author will be analyze impact of changes in
the water balance in Kupang city. To achieve that, the author will use the procedure consists
of two procedures: Temperature and precipitation are modeled under two typical emission
A1FI and B1 scenarios evaluated in this study for future projections in Kupang, discharge
simulations using rainfall Mock generated daily rainfall and water balance monthly Data
analysis WEAP (water Evaluation and Planning System) based simulation Mock. Due to the
significant uncertainty involved in forecasting future water consumption and water yield, the
author will use the three scenarios assumed water consumption and water three outcome
scenarios. Three scenarios of water consumption, ie, "Low", "Medium" and "High" in
accordance with the expected number of water consumption. Disposal obtained from mock
simulations during the simulation period. Finally, the water balance analysis conducted by
WEAP based on a combination of the three scenarios of water consumption. With this
procedure, it is possible to explore different scenarios of water consumption and water
results and the results of this study can be used to establish the proper planning to minimize
the impact of drought on water availability to support water requirement due to climate
change in Kupang city.
IB Extended Essay Sample APA 2018-2019 by WritingMetier.comWriting Metier
APA style International Baccalaureate Extended Essay Sample years 2018-2019 written by WritingMetier.com
Topic:
Adverse effects of global warming and what can be done to reduce it?
A very small and handy presentation on Shared responsibility at the time of disasters. Very helpful for class 10 students. This project is always given by class teachers in class 10 for cbse students. Hope you lie it.
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityLisa Winter
This is the report submitted by Working Group II entitled "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability." This report is leading up to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report which will be released this fall.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
Incorporating Climate Tipping Points Into Policy AnalysisOECD Environment
Presentation given during the OECD Expert workshop on Economic Modelling of Climate and Related Tipping Points by Elizabeth Kopits, US Environmental Protection Agency
Impact of Future Climate Change on water availability in Kupang CityWillem Sidharno
Observed climate change could affect water availability in the future. Changes also
occurred Kupang city in recent decades, an increase in the magnitude of the damage caused
by drought due to climate change. In an attempt to explore the effects of drought can be
aggravated by climate change. in this paper, the author will be analyze impact of changes in
the water balance in Kupang city. To achieve that, the author will use the procedure consists
of two procedures: Temperature and precipitation are modeled under two typical emission
A1FI and B1 scenarios evaluated in this study for future projections in Kupang, discharge
simulations using rainfall Mock generated daily rainfall and water balance monthly Data
analysis WEAP (water Evaluation and Planning System) based simulation Mock. Due to the
significant uncertainty involved in forecasting future water consumption and water yield, the
author will use the three scenarios assumed water consumption and water three outcome
scenarios. Three scenarios of water consumption, ie, "Low", "Medium" and "High" in
accordance with the expected number of water consumption. Disposal obtained from mock
simulations during the simulation period. Finally, the water balance analysis conducted by
WEAP based on a combination of the three scenarios of water consumption. With this
procedure, it is possible to explore different scenarios of water consumption and water
results and the results of this study can be used to establish the proper planning to minimize
the impact of drought on water availability to support water requirement due to climate
change in Kupang city.
IB Extended Essay Sample APA 2018-2019 by WritingMetier.comWriting Metier
APA style International Baccalaureate Extended Essay Sample years 2018-2019 written by WritingMetier.com
Topic:
Adverse effects of global warming and what can be done to reduce it?
A very small and handy presentation on Shared responsibility at the time of disasters. Very helpful for class 10 students. This project is always given by class teachers in class 10 for cbse students. Hope you lie it.
NREGA, Drought Mitigation Measures lecture given at Dr. MCR-HRD IAP for the officer of govt. agriculture, forest, fisheries, women and child welfare, etc.
Flood and drought mitigation - Matt MachielseYourAlberta
Matt, Assistant Deputy Minister with Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development presented at Alberta’s Watershed Management Symposium: Flood and Drought Mitigation. He explained key findings from the Government of Alberta’s flood mitigation engineering studies are presented, along with next steps for major flood mitigation projects.
Моя прошлогодняя работа в Британке (kick-off), которая так и не зажила отдельной жизнью, но, может, кого-то вдохновит на дальнейшие подвиги. Я проектировала сервис с точки зрения пользователя, каким он мог бы быть с учетом пользы для отдельно взятого горожанина, и с учетом опыта мобильного американского сервиса 311.
Kc 1BProENGL 130214 October 2019Climate ChangeIntrod.docxcroysierkathey
Kc 1
B
Pro
ENGL 1302
14 October 2019
Climate Change
Introduction
Climate change is a phenomenon that takes place in line with changes in the weather pattern in a given region for an extended period. The length taken for climate change to occur can be either long or short. For climate change to take place, there has to be an interaction of various parts such as atmosphere, cry sphere, lithosphere, and the biosphere. The entire climate system depends on the sun for energy. Climate energy is also structured in such a way that it gives out energy to outer space. An imbalance in the incoming and outgoing energy is linked to an event of climate change. Climate change is characterized by adverse impacts that need appropriate mitigation processes. In that case, this paper seeks to discuss the causes of climate change, its effects, importance, and solutions of the same.
Causes of Climate Change
The world-leading causes of climate change are human activities. Human activities can be understood from different perspectives depending on the impact that they have on the environment. Humans engage in the use of fossil fuels as sources of energy, not knowing this is an act that contributes to climate change (Nerem, 2022). Fossil fuels are sources of climate change, and they engage the burning of coal as well any other objects that produce carbon dioxide.
Deforestation, uncontrolled waste disposal, mining, and intensive farming are some of the other well-known cause of climate change. All these are human actions that lead to growth and development but still impact the environment negatively. For instance, incineration leads to the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that traps warmth in the atmosphere. Also, it affects the ozone layer leading to exposure to harmful ultraviolet rays.
Effects of Climate Change
A global climate change is an aspect that already has observable effects when looked profoundly. For instance, glaciers have been shrunk, while rivers have been filled with ice. Trees are also flowering to show that there has been a change in climate, and any adverse impact needs to be controlled or handled appropriately. Scientists have been conducting research, and currently, they have brought out the fact that it can lead to a loss in the sea ice (Hart and Lauren, 415). A loss in the sea ice leads to a rise in sea levels, which is detrimental to the surrounding environment. All these adverse impact make climate change an important aspect that needs to be studied and well understood.
Rise in Sea Levels - Climate change leads to a rise in sea levels. The average sea level in the past 100 years has been standing at 20 cm, but this is likely to rise rapidly in the next coming years (Bindo et al., 385). This is an aspect that is already being experienced at the coast, with a number of flooding events taking place. For instance, New York has had many flooding cases, and by the year 2050, there will be a need to construct sea walls to contr ...
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxjoellemurphey
Running Head: CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE
Student’s Name
University Affiliation
Climate Change
So there has been an temperature increase on the Earth b 1 degree Farenheit with the past two centuries. Many oblivious persosn would wonder what the big deal is. The one degree being mentioned may appear negligible, but it is actually an extraordinary event in the planet’s history. The preserved and studied Earth’s climate records indicate that the average global temperature has been stable for long periods of time. Furthermore, slight changes in the temperature result in major alterations in the environment.
According to scientific estimations, the environment as we now know it will not be the same in the next 10 years. We should also not forget that the environment is what we depend on fully, not the other way round. As it is, the initiatives to mitigate climate change should first begin with the actions of each and every one at a personal level. Climate change is no longer considered an emerging concern but a lurking catastrophe. This paper seeks to enlighten the reader on climate change, a Geoscience issue that has been the cause of massive research in its various aspects. The paper gains insight on the topic in the most holistic manner possible.
According to other professionals in the field of geology, climate change has been termed as a significant, progressive and lasting alteration in weather’s statistical patterns, noted for periods that range from a decade to millions of ages. Basically, climate change has the potential of being the change in the weather’s average condition or its distribution. The main means that have been used by scientists in understanding the condition’s plight are theoretical and observational. More recently however, there have been improved methods of scrutinizing the situation, through the use of instrumental recordings. Nonetheless, the universally accepted definition of climate change is; the change in climate system’s statistical properties after being considered for a long period of time, where the causes are not regarded.
As a constituent issue, many are unable to distinguish climate and global warming (Giddens, 2009). However, the fault cannot be entirely placed on them as the two are indeed deeply intertwined. I would therefore use this relationship between the two issues to approach both at once. It is common knowledge that climate change is one of the realest threats that our prosperity faces; this being in accordance to a tenfold of research conducted by numerous scientists. Carbon dioxide is among the pollutant gases that contribute to the deterioration of the ozone layer as well as bringing about the greenhouse effect (McKrecher, 2010). Various anthropogenic activities such as deforestation have also been noted as major causes of the progressively increasing climate change. Having stated that, it becomes clear that climate change comes about due to global ...
The freeze-thaw threshold of 0°C is crucial in polar regions. Large changes in physical, biological, and human systems occur when temperature crosses this threshold. Therefore, any climate change that shifts the freeze-thaw line, whether in space or time, will bring about important impacts
Techniques to optimize the pagerank algorithm usually fall in two categories. One is to try reducing the work per iteration, and the other is to try reducing the number of iterations. These goals are often at odds with one another. Skipping computation on vertices which have already converged has the potential to save iteration time. Skipping in-identical vertices, with the same in-links, helps reduce duplicate computations and thus could help reduce iteration time. Road networks often have chains which can be short-circuited before pagerank computation to improve performance. Final ranks of chain nodes can be easily calculated. This could reduce both the iteration time, and the number of iterations. If a graph has no dangling nodes, pagerank of each strongly connected component can be computed in topological order. This could help reduce the iteration time, no. of iterations, and also enable multi-iteration concurrency in pagerank computation. The combination of all of the above methods is the STICD algorithm. [sticd] For dynamic graphs, unchanged components whose ranks are unaffected can be skipped altogether.
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Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
Granular Access Controls: Provide users with self-service tools tailored to their specific needs, preventing data overload and misuse.
Data Catalogs: Implement robust data catalogs for easy discovery and understanding of available data sources.
2. Foster Collaboration with Clear Roles:
Data Mesh Architecture: Break down data silos by creating a distributed data ownership model with clear ownership and responsibilities.
Collaborative Workspaces: Utilize interactive platforms where data scientists, analysts, and domain experts can work seamlessly together.
3. Leverage Advanced Analytics Strategically:
AI-powered Automation: Automate repetitive tasks like data cleaning and feature engineering, freeing up data talent for higher-level analysis.
Right-Tool Selection: Strategically choose the most effective advanced analytics techniques (e.g., AI, ML) based on specific business problems.
4. Prioritize Data Quality with Automation:
Automated Data Validation: Implement automated data quality checks to identify and rectify errors at the source, minimizing downstream issues.
Data Lineage Tracking: Track the flow of data throughout the ecosystem, ensuring transparency and facilitating root cause analysis for errors.
5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
Metrics-Driven Performance Management: Align KPIs and performance metrics with data-driven insights to ensure actionable decision making.
Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
Explore our comprehensive data analysis project presentation on predicting product ad campaign performance. Learn how data-driven insights can optimize your marketing strategies and enhance campaign effectiveness. Perfect for professionals and students looking to understand the power of data analysis in advertising. for more details visit: https://bostoninstituteofanalytics.org/data-science-and-artificial-intelligence/
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
3. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
3
Motivation
Heat waves impact on health and economy
Heat waves and droughts impact agricultural output
Hot extremes more relevant than mean
temperatures
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Year Country Estimated
death toll
(No. of people)
Estimated costs Reference
2003 Europe 70’000 13 billion Euros a,b
2010 Russia 55’736 5-12 billion Euros c,d
2012 US 123 31 billion USD e
2013 Eastern
China
40 59 billion RMB f,g
a. Robine et al., Com. Ren.Biol., 2008 . b. www.metoffice.gov.uk c. www.emdat.be
d. www.dw.de e. www.ncdc.noaa.gov f. www.news.xinhuanet.com g. Hou et al., Met. Mon., 2014
6. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
6
Motivation: Increase in hot extremes
Seneviratne, Donat, Mueller and Alexander (Nature Climate Change), 2014
Increase in extremely hot global land
temperature vs.
increase in mean temperature
Trends 1997 - 2012
Extreme T
Mean T
Temperatureanomaly[K]
K per 10 years
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Txp95 over land─
Tmean over land
Tmean ocean + land
─
──
13. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
13
Mueller and Seneviratne (PNAS), 2012
Land-atmosphere coupling with observations
Correlation: Number of hot days and preceding drought index 1979-2010
Hatched areas significant at
10% level
White: Not defined
Hot days at hottest month
of each year
Drought index before that
month:
Precipitation deficit over 3
months (standardized
precipitation index SPI)
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Hot day
Temperature
> 1 wet
-0.99 to 0.99 near normal
< -1 dry
16. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
16
Mueller and Seneviratne (GRL), 2014
Evaporation bias (annual)
Land-surface impact on temperature in models
Mueller et al., (HESS), 2013
Evapotranspiration (40 datasets), 1989-1995 CMIP5 minus reference data
Too wet
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Temperature bias (annual)
Too cold
18. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
18
Changes in the water cycle
Precipitation
Evaporation
Temperature/
extreme T
Runoff
Soil moisture
Greenhouse
Gases
Agricultural
productionFloods
www.newscientist.org www.oklahomafarmreports.com
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
20. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
20
Changes in the water cycle
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Dots: Robust.
Hatching: Not significant
(rel. to internal climate
variability)
RCP8.5 scenario (2081-
2100 minus 1986-2005)
Sedláček and Knutti (Environ. Res. Lett), 2014
Future minus past
21. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
21
1) Are changes in soil moisture and droughts
distinguishable from internal climate variability?
→ Detection
2) Are changes due to human influence?
→ Attribution
Changes in droughts
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
22. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
22
Central line of evidence that has supported
statements such as …’most of the observed
increase in global average temperature since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations’
IPCC AR5, Chapter 10, 2013
Detection and Attribution
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
28. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
28
Detection and Attribution
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
1986 - 1996
XY
Y = X × β + ε
Adapted from Weaver and Zwiers (Nature), 2000
1946 -1956
Evaluate amplitude estimates Evaluate goodness of fit
Observations Model simulations
Signal
detected in
observations
0ˆ β=(XT C-1X) -1XTC-1Y
29. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
29
Warm season soil moisture trends 1951-2005
Adapted from: Mueller and Zhang, submitted to Climatic Change
ALL
NAT
OBS
Obs
NAT
ALL
Soil moisture Drought area
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Region: Northern mid-latitudes
Observations
Natural +
Anthropogenic
Only natural
forcing
30. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
30
Scaling factors β
Adapted from: Mueller and Zhang, submitted to Climatic Change
Detected if > 0
Bars: 5-95%
confidence intervals
Soil moisture Drought area
ALL NAT ALL NAT
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
ALL = natural and
anthropogenic forcing
NAT = only natural
32. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
32
Hot temperatures observed in the past showed strong
negative impacts (health, economy, agriculture)
How likely does a summer as hot or hotter than the
hottest in the past become in the future?
Hot future summer: Motivation
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Year Country Estimated
death toll
(No. of people)
Estimated costs Ref
2003 Europe 70’000 13 billion Euros a,b
2010 Russia 55’736 5-12 billion Euros c,d
2012 US 123 31 billion USD e
2013 Eastern
China
40 59 billion RMB f,g
Heat waves, droughts
37. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
37
Constraining simulations with observations
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Adjust past and future simulations
1. In detection and attribution framework, calculate factor βALL by
which simulations need to be scaled to match best the
observations
2. Adjust simulations with scaling factors βALL
Xadjusted = XALL*βALL
where X is the ensemble mean of the simulations.
3. Add internal variability to obtain a set of possible temperatures
Xrec = XALL*βALL + Controlsimulationsindividual
where Controlsimulations are 390 samples of internal variability.
40. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
40
Percentage of
population experiencing
1 in 2 summers hotter
than the past maximum
─ under RCP4.5
─ under RCP8.5
Hottest historical summers will
be the norm for more than half
of the world's population by
2035
Population affected by hot summers
Mueller, Zhang and Zwiers, in preparation
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Percentofworldpopulation[%]
41. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
41
Percentage of
population experiencing
1 in 2 summers hotter
than the past maximum
─ under RCP4.5
─ under RCP8.5
Hottest historical summers will
be the norm for more than half
of the world's population by
2035
Population affected by hot summers
Mueller, Zhang and Zwiers, in preparation
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Percentofworldpopulation[%]
42. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
42
Hottest historical summers will
be the norm for more than half
of the world's population by
2035
Population affected by hot summers
Mueller, Zhang and Zwiers, in preparation
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Percentage of
population experiencing
9 in 10 summers hotter
than the past maximum
─ under RCP4.5
─ under RCP8.5
Percentofworldpopulation[%]
43. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
43
Hot temperatures strong increase in the
last 30 years
Soil moisture influences temperature
extremes in large fraction of the globe
Potential for seasonal prediction
Summary I.
# hot days and drought
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
44. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
44
Northern hemispheric land areas have
become drier
Human influence on changes in soil
moisture are significant
Strong increase in probabilities for
future hot summers after 2020,
especially without climate action
Summary II.
1. Motivation 2. Coupling 3. Human influence on droughts 4. Hot summers
Soil
moisture
45. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
45
Local versus large scale effect on droughts,
evaporation and temperature
Improving simulations of temperature selecting
models with good representation of land-atmosphere
coupling
Response of global water cycle to increasing
greenhouse gases
Regional climate change
Open questions
brigitte.mueller@env.ethz.ch
46. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
46
Local versus large scale effect on droughts,
evaporation and temperature
Improving simulations of temperature selecting
models with good representation of land-atmosphere
coupling
Response of global water cycle to increasing
greenhouse gases
Regional climate change
Thank you
brigitte.mueller@env.ethz.ch
47. Introduction
Preliminary
results
Outlook
Supplement.
figures
47
New info updated after presentation
Papers mentioned are now published:
Mueller, B., X. Zhang , and F.W. Zwiers (2016): Historically
hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of
the world's population within 20 years, Environmental Research
Letters.Climatic Change. Link
Mueller, B., and X. Zhang (2016): Causes of drying trends in
northern hemispheric land areas in reconstructed soil moisture
data, Climatic Change. Link
Supplementary