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Friederike Otto, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumptions, Uncertainties and Surprises”, 3-4 September 2020

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OECD Environment
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Presentation from Workshop on Climate Change: Assumptions, Uncertainties and Surprises, 3-4 September 2020

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Angry Weather! Climate change? https://www.worldweatherattribution.org
Generally impossible to say “this event would not have occurred without human influence”, but we can ask how the likelihood of this type of extreme event occurring has changed due to external factors Otto 2017
Attribution studies around the world Not representative! https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world
Combining & synthesizing lines of evidence Heavy Rainfall in France Windstorm Friederike Drought in Ethiopia van Oldenborgh et al., 2020
2003 – present: reported deaths from extreme weather & where the role of climate change is known Otto et al., 2020
Are we looking at the right hazards? Harrington & Otto 2020
Who will experience the hazards? Harrington & Otto 2018 1.5 – 1 SSP1 SSP2

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Friederike Otto, University of Oxford - OECD Workshop on “Climate change, Assumptions, Uncertainties and Surprises”, 3-4 September 2020

  • 1. Angry Weather! Climate change? https://www.worldweatherattribution.org
  • 2. Generally impossible to say “this event would not have occurred without human influence”, but we can ask how the likelihood of this type of extreme event occurring has changed due to external factors Otto 2017
  • 3. Attribution studies around the world Not representative! https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world
  • 4. Combining & synthesizing lines of evidence Heavy Rainfall in France Windstorm Friederike Drought in Ethiopia van Oldenborgh et al., 2020
  • 5. 2003 – present: reported deaths from extreme weather & where the role of climate change is known Otto et al., 2020
  • 6. Are we looking at the right hazards? Harrington & Otto 2020
  • 7. Who will experience the hazards? Harrington & Otto 2018 1.5 – 1 SSP1 SSP2