Oregon economic and budgetary challenges and how to address them in a way that supports the long-term health of Oregonians and Oregon's economy.

1. Breaking Out of a Circle of Scarcity The Oregon Business Plan

3. The Circle of Prosperity: How its supposed to work Strong Economy Higher Incomes & Lower Poverty Rate Lower Tax Rates and/or More Dollars for Public Services Good Public Services & Higher Quality of Life Lower Costs Higher Revenues

4. So How Are We Doing on Jobs and Incomes? Strong Economy Higher Incomes & Lower Poverty Rate Lower Tax Rates and/or More Dollars for Public Services Good Public Services & Higher Quality of Life Lower Costs Higher Revenues

5. Per capita income OR, WA v. US Average Washington Oregon US

6. Per capita income OR, WA v. US Average Washington Oregon US

7. Per capita income OR, WA v. US Average Washington Oregon US

8. Per capita income OR, WA v. US Average Washington Oregon US

9. If Oregon looked more like Washington…

10. Change in Oregon employment starting… Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Job Losses From Recession Are Deep and the Recovery Will Be Slow

11. So what does this mean for quality public services? Strong Economy Higher Incomes & Lower Poverty Rate Lower Tax Rates and/or More Dollars for Public Services Good Public Services & Higher Quality of Life Lower Costs Higher Revenues

13. Revenue per capita OR v WA and US average Washington Oregon Since our income is declining compared to Washington, so is our investment in Public Services

14. Change in Oregon employment starting… Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Combined with all of the job losses, and the slow recovery, and we have a recipe for...

15. A “Decade of Deficits” ($3bn/biennium) Revenues (bns.) Expenditures (bns.)

17. Tradeoffs: Medicaid/Corrections spending is growing as a share of personal income Medicaid, human services, corrections So how are we spending out limited dollars?

18. Medicaid, human services, corrections Education operations less tuition (all levels) Tradeoffs: Education spending is shrinking as a share of personal income

20. The number of Oregonians aged 65+ will increase 46% during 2010-2020. Or about 60 per day. And, as they retire, they’ll take their diplomas and experience with them.

21. Fewer workers to pay for an aging population

22. Annual average growth, 2010-2019 P20 Total GF/LF Spending All of this means fewer dollars for education over the next decade. Human Services Public Safety

23. 28% of children under 5 live with a single parent 22% live in poverty 23% have no English speaking parent Yet educating our population will not get any easier

24. And education matters more now than ever

25. And We Are Already Seeing the Consequences of Neglect The incoming workforce is LESS educated than the outgoing

26. Can we turn things around?

33. Grow Income: Welcome High Wage Jobs in Good Times and Bad

34. Traded Sector Drives Growth Traded/Export Sector Suppliers Local Sales to rest of world Most jobs are here: schools, hospitals, grocery stores, restaurants But firms in this sector drive the economy

40. Decade of Deficits Revenues (bns.) Expenditures (bns.)

41. Annual average growth, 2010-2019 P20 Total GF/LF Spending Where We’re Headed: Baseline Economy; No Reset Human Services Public Safety

42. Annual average growth, 2010-2019 P20 Total GF/LF Spending Baseline Economy; Corrections Reset Human Services Public Safety

43. Annual average growth, 2010-2019 P20 Total GF/LF Spending Baseline Economy; Corrections & Healthcare Reset Human Services Public Safety

44. Annual average growth, 2010-2019 P20 Total GF/LF Spending Stronger Economy; Corrections & Healthcare Reset Human Services Public Safety

45. Healthcare Redesign

46. Corrections Redesign

47. Education Redesign

49. Tax System Redesign

53. Learn More: Please Visit www.oregonbusinessplan.org .