Population growth and economic development of pakistan - Myths and Facts - Population: Population of an area is the total number of all individuals alive in a particular point in time. (Thomas Frejka, 1973) Birth Rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a population each year. Mortality Rate is the total Number of deaths per 1000 individual per year. Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime. High Birthrate Low Death rate Migration Emigration Immigration Many countries like Germany, Japan and China are facing aging population or negative/slow population growth. Rapid Population growth does not impedes development. A country's most important resource is its people. Although, population control, at first there are fewer children to feed, clothe, and educate. However, Population aging also depresses the growth of government revenues.  A country's most important resource is its people, knowledge pool and skills All natural resources have been getting more available rather than more scarce, as shown by their falling prices over the decades and centuries. The structure of a population can have a big impact on the wealth and economy of a country. References: http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/age_structure.html The Global Baby Bust, Phillip Longman http://nyti.ms/1vlqVaI No Babies? http://nyti.ms/Tc2MmI The coming population bust http://nyti.ms/1ncz8YK The Coming Demographic Crisis http://hvr.co/1zhHOA1 Population Bomb? So Wrong - How electricity, development, and TV reduce fertility http://bit.ly/S79fy6 More people, greater wealth, more resources, healthier environment, Julian Simon http://bit.ly/1aoVXH5

1. Relationship between
Population Parameters
and Economic Growth
Myths and Facts
Presented By
Hammad Ansari
Tuesday, January 5, 2016

2. Concepts and Definitions
• Population:
– Population of an area is the total number of all
individuals alive in a particular point in time.
• Birth Rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a
population each year.
• Mortality Rate is the total Number of deaths per 1000
individual per year.
• Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children
that would be born to a woman over her lifetime.

3. Concepts and Definitions
• Population Density:
Population divided by land area in square
kilometers.
• Population Growth Rate:
Percentage change of resident population
compared to previous year.

4. Hypothesis
• H1: Higher Population hinders economic
health of a country
• H2: Higher Population Density hinders
economic health of a country
• H3: Higher Population Growth Rate hinders
economic health of a country

5. Hypothesis
• H4: The Land Area is insufficient resource for
the growing demand.
• H5: The Global Arable Land Area is
insufficient resource for the growing demand

6. Population Trends by Country

7. Population Trends by Country

8. Population Density – People/Sq. KM

9. Population Density – People/Sq. KM

10. Population Density – People/Sq. KM

11. Population Density – People/Sq. KM

12. GDP Per Capita

13. Population Growth Rate Trends

14. Population Growth Rate Trends

15. Population Growth Rate Trends

16. Family Planning Activities in Pakistan
• Formation of Family Planning Association
of Pakistan (NGO) in early 1950s.
• The National Health Policy (1990, 1997, 2001)
• Population Policy 2002
• Vision2025 by Planning Commission of
Pakistan

17. Causes of Rapid Population Growth
• High Birthrate
• Low Death rate
• Migration
– Emigration
– Immigration

18. Interaction
Population Growth =
(Birthday rate + Immigration) – (Mortality + Emigration)

19. Myth Busters

20. #1: OVERPOPULATION

21. #1: OVERPOPULATION

22. #2: DEVELOPMENT

23. #3: DEVELOPMENT

24. #4: Resource

25. #5: Scarcity

26. #5: Scarcity
Book: The Ultimate Resource 2 by Julian Lincoln Simon

27. Population Structure
The structure of a population can have a big
impact on the wealth and economy of a
country.
• Young Dependents - Those under 22 years
• Economically Active - Between 22 to 60 years
• Elderly Dependents - 60/65 and over

28. What impact can population growth
rate have on future economic
development?
Let’s brainstorm some ideas
Too High Growth Rate Too Low Growth Rate

29. • Pakistan’s current external debt stands at
$66.5 billion, and estimated external debt
would reach a whopping $90 billion in the
next four years.
• Which implies currently each person is indebt
of $365.18
Pakistan’s debt situation not a pretty
picture

30. Technological Progress
Higher
population
and other socio
institutional-
economic
factors
Higher demand
for goods and
services
Demand-
induced
inventions
(market pull)
and innovations
Higher Supply
and higher
Productivity

31. • No Theory-of-Everything
• People create/discover new ideas/information
• => A Child has infinite potential.
Ideas are infinite.

32. • Necessity is the mother of invention
• => People optimize in the wake of scarcity
• eg More agricultural yield from same input.
• eg More energy efficient machines
• eg Moore’s law
Resources are scarce, Human mind is
‘Limitless’

33. Concluding Remarks
• No negative relation between Population
Growth Rate and Economic
Development
• Population control policies/laws
disproportionately impact poor who have less
survival chance.

34. Proposed Research Topics:
• Proposed questions to be answered in future
academic research.
1. How can interdependences between Population
Growth and Economic Growth be modeled?
2. What should be the optimal population growth rate
for Pakistan?
3. What is the impact of such interdependences on
decision making? For example, how do allocate
resources optimally under weak versus strong
interdependences?

35. Bibliography:
1. http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/age_structure.html
2. The Global Baby Bust, Phillip Longman http://nyti.ms/1vlqVaI
3. No Babies? http://nyti.ms/Tc2MmI
4. The coming population bust http://nyti.ms/1ncz8YK
5. The Coming Demographic Crisis http://hvr.co/1zhHOA1
6. Population Bomb? So Wrong - How electricity, development, and TV reduce
fertility http://bit.ly/S79fy6
7. More people, greater wealth, more resources, healthier environment, Julian
Simon http://bit.ly/1aoVXH5
8. China’s Achilles heel http://www.economist.com/node/21553056
9. Pakistan’s Population Growth, Policy, and Comparison with Countries in SEAR
http://www.jimdc.org.pk/Volumes/3-
2/Pakistan's%20Population%20Growth,%20Policy,%20and%20Comparison%20wi
th%20Countries%20in%20SEAR.pdf
10. 2-child norm for local bodies hurts sex ratio
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/twochild-norm-for-local-bodies-hurts-
sex-ratio/article6388785.ece?homepage=true

36. Bibliography (2):
10. China Hits Key Demographic Ceiling As Working-
Age Population Now Declining
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-
29/china-hits-key-demographic-ceiling-working-
age-population-now-declining
11. China's labor force shrinking
http://www.china.org.cn/china/2015-
01/22/content_34625754.htm
12. All graphs are from World Bank data through
Google’s Public Data interactive visuals
13.“The Ultimate Resource” by Julian Lincoln Simon