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MBBS.USMLE, DPH, Dip-Card, M.Phil, FCPS
Assct: Professor Community Medicine
Services Institute Of Medical Sciences
Lahore.
Ex-Asst Professor Community Medicine
UmulQurrah University Makka Saudi Arabia
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Demography And
Population of
Pakistan
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4
COUNTRY INTRODUCTION
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Demography - Definition
īƒŧ The term demography was coined by a
Belgian statistician Achille Guillard in
1855
īƒŧ Derived from Greek word ‘demos’
meaning a human being
īƒŧ Defined as: “ the study of human
populations with respect to their size,
distribution, structure and changes
within them.”
Demography - Definition
īƒŧ SIZE: number of people at a given
time
īƒŧ DISTRIBUTION: arrangement of
population in space at a given time
īƒŧ STRUCTURE: distribution of
population in age and sex groupings
īƒŧ CHANGES: occur due to the growth
or decline of the total population due
to births, deaths, immigration and
emigration
What is Population?
A group of individuals
or items that share one or more
characteristics from which data can be
gathered and analyzed.
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World’s most populous countries are,
China India USA
Indonesia Brazil Pakistan
Bangladesh Russia Nigeria
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Demography - Historically
īƒŧ Confucius of China (500 B.C.): believed
that excessive population growth
depresses the living standards of the
people
īƒŧ Ancient Greeks Plato and Aristotle (300
B.C.) were of the view that the optimum
size of the city-state can be achieved
either by restricting or encouraging
births with punishments or rewards
Population Theories
īƒŧ Theory:
A description of an event, an
explanation of why it happens, and
gives a prediction about future event
īƒŧ Two kinds of Population Theories:
īƒŧ Macrolevel Theories (Malthus and Marx);
and demographic transition theories
īƒŧ Microlevel Theories – Cost utility theory
Demographic Transition
Theories
īƒŧ Three stages theory
(Old and New Balance)
īƒŧ Five stages theory
īƒŧ Epidemiological Transition
Old Balance – New Balance
ī¯ Old Balance: Death rate high, birth
rate high – net result population size
remain the same in balance
ī¯ Transitional Stage: population
increases because of imbalance in
deaths and births
ī¯ New balance: Death rates and birth
rates are low and stay in balance with
a threat of decline
Epidemiological Transition
THREE STAGES: coined by Omran in
1971
īƒŧ Age of pestilence and famine
īƒŧ Age of receding epidemics and
sanitation awareness
īƒŧ Age of degenerative diseases
Demographic Transition
There are FIVE stages of demographic
transition:
īƒŧ Stage 1 – High Stationary
īƒŧ Stage 2 – Early Expanding
īƒŧ Stage 3 – Late Expanding
īƒŧ Stage 4 – Low Stationary
īƒŧ Stage 5 – Declining
īƒŧ Pakistan is world 6th most populous country.
īƒŧ With an Estimated population of Pakistan is
220,826,319 as of Sunday, June 28, 2020,
īƒŧ Natural growth rate 2.50 (2020).
īƒŧ With the same growth rate Pakistan will become the
4th largest nation in 2050.
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īƒ˜ With the median age of around 20 years.
Therefor, it is called a “young” country.
īƒ˜ Currently approximately 106 million below the
age of 30 years.
īƒ˜ Total working age of population is 122.03
million.
īƒ˜ Labour force estimated 55 million as of 2014-
15.
īƒ˜ Proportion of population residing in urban
centres has risen to 36%.
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Factors affecting Distribution of population
Topography Climate
Soil Water
Minerals
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Social
Areas of better housing, education and health facilities are
closely populated.
Cultural
Places with religious and cultural significance attract people.
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What is Demography?
ī¯ Demography is the study of human
populations (their size, composition
and distribution across place, and the
process through which populations
change.
ī¯ Births, deaths and migration are the
‘big three’ of demography, jointly
producing population stability or
change
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Demography is scientific study of
human population
It focuses on 3 phenomena:
i. Changes in population size
ii. Composition of population
iii.Population distribution in space
Important ‘demographic processes’
include: fertility, mortality, marriage,
education & social mobility
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In a broader sense, additional characteristics such
as ethnicity (race, mother tongue), social
characteristics (marital status, literacy,
educational attainment, women’s status), and
economic characteristics (employment status,
occupation, income) also need to be considered
when describing population characteristics
1. Census
2. National Survey
3. Registration of vital events
4. Demographic Studies
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Population studies are concerned not only with
population variables but also with relationships
between population changes & other variables –
social, economic, political, biological, genetic,
geographical, environmental, health & the like
Definition of Key Words
īƒ˜ Size refers to the number persons in the population
īƒ˜ Distribution refers to the arrangement of the
population in space at a given time
īƒ˜ Structure is the distribution of population among its sex
& age groupings
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īƒ˜Change is the growth or decline of the total
population or one of its structural units. The
components of change total population are births,
deaths, & migrations
īƒ˜Age-Sex Composition of a population refers to the
proportion of males & females in different age-groups.
It has a direct bearing on social, economic, health needs
of communities or countries. In an “old” population, for
example, the society has to arrange for the care of the
elderly, & the country’s health system must be
organized accordingly. In a “young” population, on the
other hand, the country has to provide more schools,
immunizations, & economic support for the young
īƒ˜Net-Migration refers to the total number of persons
added or subtracted from a population as a result of
the combined effect of immigration & emigration
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īƒ˜Urbanization refers to mass migration of rural
population into urban centers resulting in
increasing the urban population & growth of cities
īƒ˜Population Growth Rate (%/ year) is the rate
at which a given population is expected to
increase in a given period of time.
īƒ˜Population Doubling Time refers to the time
that would take for a population to double.
Because the population increase is on the
compound interest formula, a 1% per year
increase would cause the population to double in
about 70 years. If the population is increasing at
3% per year, than the doubling time will be 23.3
years
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īƒ˜Population Pyramid is a pictorial presentation
of the age-sex composition of a population
īƒ˜Replacement Level Fertility (or Zero
population growth) is activated when a couple has
two births during their reproductive life, just
enough to replace themselves. At a community scale,
the replacement level is considered when there are, on the
average, 2.1 births per woman, to compensate for child
deaths
īƒ˜Momentum of Population Growth is the
characteristic of population growth when a sharp
decline in births does not bring in an immediate
reduction in natural increase
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Population Dynamics
īƒŧ Growth Rate
īƒŧ Population Doubling Time
īƒŧ Compound Growth
Growth Rate
īƒŧ It refers to the rate at which a given population
is expected to increase in a given period of
time. It is shown in percentage per year
īƒŧ Population Growth = Natural Increase + Net
Migration
īƒŧ Natural Increase = (No. of Births – No. of Deaths)
īƒŧ Net Migration = (IM - OM)
īƒŧ Where IM = In migration i.e. No. of persons moving
into an area
īƒŧ OM = No. of persons moving out of an area
Population Doubling Time
īƒŧ It is the time that would take for a
population to double itself
Population Doubling time = 70
Growth rate
īƒŧ If the growth rate is 2% and would
remain so than the time for a population
to double itself in number would be 70/2
= 35 years
Population Dynamics
ī¯ How to calculate the size of a
population if we know the growth rate
Pt1 = Pt0 (1 + r)t
Pt1 = Future population
Pt0 = Present Population
r = Growth rate per cent
t = number of years between t0
and t1
There are four ways in which the number of people in
an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1
Pt1 = Pto + (B – D) + (IM – OM)
B = number of live births to mothers in the area
D = number of residents died
IM = number of persons moving into the area fro permanent
residence
OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live
elsewhere
Thus the population of an area may change due to
natural reasons (B – D) known as natural increase or
due to migration (IM – OM) known as net-migration.
Subsequently:
Population Growth = Natural Increase
+ Net Migration
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Compound Growth
If the population of a city is 100000 and
a growth rate of 5%. After 6 years it
will be using the formula:
Pt1 = Pt0 (1 + r)t
Pt1 = 100000 (1 + 0.05)6
134009
Population Growth Rate
â€Ļis a measurement that combines both natural increase
and net migration to calculate the overall growth of
a country’s population.
To calculate:
Population Growth Rate = natural increase rate +
net immigration rate/1000 x 100 (%)
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POPULATION DENSITY
ī¯
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While characteristic is an attribute of an individual
(e.g. male, young, healthy, employed etc),
composition is a property of a group of people. It
describes how the total given population is
constituted (e.g. 51% males, 20% below age 5, 85%
healthy 7& 30% employed etc).
Dependency Ratio is an index summarizing an age
distribution. Strictly, this is he ratio of population
who are economically not active to those who are
economically active. However, due to the difficulties
in defining economic activity in many countries,
especially when international comparisons are
made, a ratio of age group is used instead:
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Population Composition (Cont’d)
Dependency Ratio
= Children + Elderly X 100
Working Age
= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100
Pop 15 – 64 years
Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 95.1
Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5
īƒ˜Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of
males to females in the population & is calculated by
taking the number of males in a population & dividing it
by the number of females in the same population
Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100
Number of Females
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Demographic Cycle
World history suggests that every nation passes
through a demographic cycle. The stages are:
1.High Stationary Stage: characterized by
high birth rate and high death rate
2.Early Expanding: The death rate begins to
decline while birth rate remains unchanged
3.Late Expanding: The death rate declined
still further and birth rate tend to fall
4.Low Stationary Stage: Low birth and low
death rates
5.Declining Stage: birth rate is lower than
the death rate and population starts
declining
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īƒ˜Old Balance: (High fertility & High Mortality)
A large supply of births was necessary to compensate
for the large number of deaths. MMR & IMR extremely
high
īƒ˜New Balance: (Low fertility & Low Mortality)
Represents an improved condition of human efficiency
& health, with fewer deaths considerably less efforts
required to bring a generation to maturity. Production
of agricultural & industrial commodities is greater & life
style is more comfortable
īƒ˜Imbalance: (High Fertility & Low Mortality)
In between old & new balance is the period of rapid
natural increase. This growth is helpful for under-
populated nations. Too fast growth of population
leading economic, social & political chaos ( being faced
by numerous developing countries including Pakistan)
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Europe, Japan &
USA
Zero or very
slow
Low
Low
Europe 19th century, East
Asian countries in the mid
20th century
Slow
Low
Declining
Europe 18th century,
Pakistan 1970s
Rapid
Low
High
Europe 17th century, India
1930s – 40s
Slow
Declining
High
Europe prior to 15th
century, most other
developing countries
till the 19th century
Zero to very
slow
High
High
Example
Natural
Increase
Death Rates
Birth Rates
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Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 : Pre
industrializa
tion: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2:
Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4:
Stable low
population
growth
CBR
High Birth
rates
High Birth
rates
Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates
Family Size
-- planned
Family
Planning --
The general
plan is to
have many
kids
Family
Planning --
The general
plan is to have
many kids
Family Planning --
The plan is to have
fewer kids
Trends
stabilize with
2 kid families
or less
Infant
Mortality
Rate/
Fertility
Rate
Many children
because few
survive, high
fertility rate
Still many kids
because
expect few to
survive high
fertility
Lower infant
mortality rates --
less pressure to
have children,
fertility declines
Small family
size low
fertility rate
Family
Economics
Many children
are needed to
work the land
Children are
still useful for
work
Increased
mechanization and
industrialization
means less need
for labor/kids
Women are
working in
great
numbers
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Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 : Pre
industrializati
on: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2: Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4: Stable
low population
growth
CBR
High Birth
rates
High Birth
rates
Falling Birth
rates
Low Birth rates
Status of
Kids
Children are a
sign of virility &
status and old
age insurance
Children are a
sign of virility &
status and old
age insurance
Increased desire
for material
possessions and
less desire for
large families
Kids are an
expense &
“bling”
Gender
roles
Strong sex
roles
Strong sex
roles
Emancipation of
women
Emancipation of
women
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Stage 1 : Pre
industrializatio
n: Stable
population
growth
Stage 2:
Rapid
population
growth
Stage 3:
Continued
and
decreasing
population
growth
Stage 4:
Stable low
populatio
n growth
CDR High Death
Rates
Falling
Death Rates
Death rates
Low
Death rates
Low
Health
Conditi
ons
Poor Diet &
Sanitation,
Famine and
Disease
Improved
diet,
sanitation &
medical
care
Slight
improvemen
t
No change
Transp
ort
Faciliti
es
Limited
transport, trade
& travel
Improved
transport to
move food
and doctors
Slight
Improvemen
t
Stable
Child
Deaths
High child
mortality before
age 5
A decrease
in child
mortality
Child
mortality
very low
Stable
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Basic Terms
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Infant Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
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Transition 1
ī¯ Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of
the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the
small total population graph). There are many reasons for this:
ī¯ little access to birth control
ī¯ many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend
to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live
ī¯ children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family
ī¯ children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures
ī¯ religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large
families
ī¯ high death rates, especially among children because of disease,
famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.
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Stage 2
ī¯ Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall
rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown
by the total population graph). The reasons for this
could be:
ī¯ improvements in medical care - hospitals,
medicines, etc.
ī¯ improvements in sanitation and water supply
ī¯ quality and quantity of food produced rises
ī¯ transport and communications improve the
movements of food and medical supplies
ī¯ decrease in infant mortality.
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Stage 3
ī¯ Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall.
The total population begins to peak and the population
increase slows to a constant. The reasons for this could be:
ī¯ increased access to contraception
ī¯ lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a
bigger family
ī¯ industrialization and mechanization means fewer laborers are
required
ī¯ the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for
large families as wealth increases
ī¯ equality for women means that they are able to follow a
career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.
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Stage 4
ī¯ Both birth rates and death rates remain
low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and
epidemics of illnesses and disease.
ī¯ This results in a steady population.
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Stage 5?
ī¯ stage 5 was not originally thought of as
part of the DTM, but some northern
countries are now reaching the stage where
total population is declining where birth
rates have dropped below death rates. One
such country is Germany, which has taken in
foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's
population is expected to start declining by
2021.
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Examples
ī¯ Population changes over time and space and the
DTM can show both of these. Examples for both of
these are shown below. Firstly, examples of
countries that can be classed as exhibiting the
population traits now, are shown as an example of
how population can change over SPACE. Secondly,
the dates the UK passed through each stage are
indicated as an example of how population in one
country can change over TIME.
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ī¯ Stage 1
Ethiopia / Bangladesh
UK: pre-1780
ī¯ Stage 2
Sri Lanka / Brazil
UK: 1780 - 1880
ī¯ Stage 3
Uruguay / China
UK: 1880 - 1940
Stage 4
Canada / Japan
UK: post-1940
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World Population Trend/
Population Dynamics:
2000 years ago 250 million population
1800 978 million
1900 1650 million
1950 2.5 billion
1970 3.6 billion
1980 4.4 billion
1985 4.8 billion
2000 To 2016 6 billion to 7.4 billion
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ī¯ The rampant population growth is viewed as the
greatest obstacle to the economic & social
development of the majority of peoples in the
underdeveloped world
ī¯ Approximately 95% of population growth is in
developing countries
ī¯ Currently, 1/3 of the world population is < 15, &
will soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more
potential for population growth
ī¯ The expected number of births per woman, at
current fertility rate is:
īŽ Africa 6.1
īŽ Asia 3.2
īŽ Latin America 3.4
īŽ North America 2.0
īŽ Europe 1.6
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ī¯Economic implications
Due to population explosion there are
īŽ Short term pressure affects during 2-3
decade
īŽ Long term over next century and beyond
economic affects
ī¯Demographic Implications
In population with low birth and death
rate, 20-30% of population is under 15;
9-13% is 65 or more. The median age
for this population is 32 and there is
increased demand for senior citizen
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ī¯Environmental / Ecological Implications
Due to population explosion there are
īŽ Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade
īŽ Long term over next century and beyond
economic affects
ī¯Social / Political Implications
In population with low birth and death rate,
20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13%
is 65 or more. The median age for this
population is 32 and there is increased
demand for senior citizens
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Age Pakistan U.K.
0 -14 44.5 22.2
15 – 64 51.2 60.0
65 & above 4.2 17.8
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Population Of
Pakistan
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Population Of Pakistan
īƒŧ Pakistan is world 6th most populous
country.
īƒŧ With an Estimated population of
Pakistan is 220,826,319 as of Sunday,
June 28, 2020,
īƒŧ Natural growth rate 2.50 (2020).
īƒŧ With the same growth rate Pakistan will
become the 4th largest nation in 2050.
ī¯
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Population of Pakistan (cont’d)
ī¯ In general, it has also been found that
where there is rapid population growth
and high fertility rates, poverty incidence
is also highest.
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Population dynamics in 2020
According to our estimations, daily change rates of
Pakistan population in 2022 will be the following:
ī¯ 12 767 live births average per day (531.97 in a hour)
ī¯ 3 561 deaths average per day (148.38 in a hour)
ī¯ -1 034 emigrants average per day (-43.10 in a hour)
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Population Causes Over Population Obstacles
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Population Causes Over Population Obstacles (cont’d)
ī¯ Dangerous for economic development
ī¯ Lower per capital income.
ī¯ Low rate of savings.
ī¯ Problems for education sector.
ī¯ Housing problems.
ī¯ Food shortage
ī¯ Population and capital formation.
ī¯ Unemployment.
ī¯ Population and environment.
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Population of Pakistan
ī¯ How much population of Pakistan in
2022?
ī¯ 229,571,350
ī¯ The current population of Pakistan
is 229,571,350 as of Wednesday,
July 13, 2022, based on Worldometer
elaboration of the latest United
Nations data.
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The current population of
Pakistan in
ī¯ 2022 is 235,824,862, a 1.91%
increase from 2021.
ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2021
was 231,402,117, a 1.85% increase from
2020.
ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2020
was 227,196,741, a 1.75% increase from
2019.
ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2019
was 223,293,280, a 1.62% increase from
2018.
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Demography Of Pakistan
ī¯ Nationality
ī¯ Pakistani
ī¯ Ethnic groups
ī¯ Punjabi 44.68%, Pashtun (Pathan) 15.42%, Sindhi
14.1%, Sariaki 8.38%, Muhajirs 7.57%, Balochi
3.57%, other 6.28%
ī¯ Religions
ī¯ Muslim 96.4% (Sunni 85-90%, Shia 10-15%),
other (includes Christian and Hindu) 3.6%.
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Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
īƒ˜ Age structure
â€ĸ 0-14 years: 34.3% (male 33.59 billions/female 31.79
billions)
â€ĸ 15-24 years: 21.5% (male 21.80 billions/female 20.46
billions)
â€ĸ 25-54 years: 34.7% (male 36.39 billions/female 33.63
billions)
â€ĸ 55-64 years: 5.1% (male 5.008 billions/female 5.04 billions)
â€ĸ 65 years and over: 4.3% (male 3.95 billions/female 4.49
billions)
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Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
ī¯ Languages
ī¯ Punjabi 48%,
ī¯ Sindhi 12%,
ī¯ Saraiki (a Punjabi variant) 10%,
ī¯ Pashtu 8%,
ī¯ Urdu (official) 8%,
ī¯ Balochi 3%,
ī¯ Hindko 2%,
ī¯ Brahui 1%,
ī¯ English (official), Burushaski, and other 8%
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Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
ī¯ Literacy ( the ability to read and write)
ī¯ definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 54.9%
male: 68.6%
female: 40.3%
ī¯ Education expenditures
ī¯ 2.7% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (2009)
and 5.5% (2018) 3.3% (2019e) −1.5%
(2020e) 2.0% (2021e)
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Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
Educational institutions by kind
ī¯ Primary schools: 156,592
ī¯ Middle schools: 320,611
ī¯ High schools: 23,964
ī¯ College of Arts and Sciences: 3,213
ī¯ Degree colleges: 1,202
ī¯ Technical and vocational institutions: 3,125
ī¯ Universities: 153 ( recognize by HEC)
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Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d)
Health expenditures
ī‚— 2.6% of GDP
Urbanization
Urban population
ī¯ 36.2% of total population (2011).
Rate of urbanization
ī¯ 2.68% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.)
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Let’s Practice...
Calculate Doubling Time:
Country
70/population
growth rate
Doubling Time
Canada 70 / 0.8%
Togo 70 / 2.4%
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POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Understanding Population
Pyramids
World Population
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Objectives
ī¯WHAT is a population pyramid?
ī¯HOW to read a population pyramid?
ī¯Recognise SHAPES of population
pyramids.
ī¯IMPORTANCE of population
pyramids.
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What is a population pyramid?
ī¯ It is a diagram that gives information about
the proportion of males and females in
each age group.
ī¯ Also shows:
- proportion of young people (0 -14 )
- proportion of working people (15 – 59)
- proportion of elderly people (60+)
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Population Pyramids
â€ĸ A population pyramid is two back-to-back
bar graphs, one showing the number of
males and one showing females in a
particular population in five-year age groups
(also called cohorts).
â€ĸ A great deal of information about the
population broken down by age and sex can
be read from a population pyramid, and this
can shed light on the extent of its
development.
– Birth rate trends
– Death rate trends
– Number of economic dependents (<15, >65)
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What is a population pyramid?
Vertical Axis - Age Groups
Horizontal Axis – Percentage / number
Young dependents
Working population
Elderly dependents
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Population Pyramids
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How to read a population pyramid?
ī¯ Read the title e.g. country or city or racial
group
ī¯ Comment on general shape of the
pyramid
ī¯ Note the proportion of people in various
age groups
ī¯ Note the sex ratio
ī¯ Interpret the data
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Types of Population Pyramid
1. Triangular-shaped
2. Beehive-shaped Pyramid
3. Rectangular-shaped Pyramid
Shape of pyramids is controlled by
īŽ births,
īŽ deaths, &
īŽ migrations.
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Reading Population Pyramids
ī¯ Shape of sides:
īŽ Concave sides indicate a high death rate and convex sides
indicate a low death rate.
īŽ If the population pyramid exhibits concave sides it
indicates a high death rate.
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Dependency Ratio
īĩ The working age of people varies.
īĩ Traditionally people worked until they were 65 years
old.
īĩ The common trend now is for people to retire closer
to 55 years of age.
īĩ However, for statistic purposes we recognize people
between 15 and 65 as the workers of a society.
īĩ People under 15 and over 65 are considered
dependant upon the working population.
īĩ The dependency ratio (DR) of a population indicates
how many people are dependant upon every 100
workers.
The formula is
DR = (pop. 0-14) + (pop. 65+)*100
(pop. 15-64)
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Descriptions
ī¯ Bumps in the sides:
īŽ Irregularities in the sides indicate a demographic
anomaly.
īŽ The 30 -50 age group in the population pyramid
represents the baby boom.
īŽ This bump will travel upward as the baby boomers age.
ī¯ Classification:
īŽ Indicates standard of living as described above.
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Triangular-shaped Pyramid
(Broad-based Pyramid)
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Broad-based Pyramid
Title: India, 2000
Shape: Broad Base - high birth rates
Narrow Top - small elderly pop
- high death rate
Proportion: - Large proportion of young
- high young dependency
ratio
Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance sex
ratio
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Population Pyramids
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Population Pyramids in Transition
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Each pyramid tells a story
about the
past, present & future
of a country & its people.
Male Female
Population in millions
In this
country the
number of
people in each
age group is
about the
same.
The largest
category of
people were
born about
40 years
ago.
In this country there is a low Birth Rate
and a low Death Rate.
This population pyramid is typical of
countries in the richer parts of the world
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Population in millions
Male Female
In this
country the
birth rate is
decreasing.
In the future the
elderly people will make
up the largest section
of the population in this
country.
This is happening
more and more in
many of the world’s
richer countries.
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Male Female
Population in thousands
This country has a large
number of temporary
workers. These are people
who migrate here especially
to find a job.
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Population Pyramids –
Depression
Baby Boom
Aging Population
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Baby boomers?
ī¯ Who are the baby boomers?
ī¯ Baby boomers are the demographic
group born during the post–World
War II baby boom, approximately
between the years 1946 and 1964.
This includes people who
are between 52 and 70 years
old in 2017, according to the U.S.
Census Bureau.
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Importance of Population Pyramids
ī¯ Policy Planning
~ future housing estates
~ future schools
~ future jobs
ī¯ Comparison with other countries
~ developed (US) vs developing (India)
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10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2000
1
2
3
4
5
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Analysis of the Italy’s
Pyramid
ī¯1. Decline in Birth Rate
ī¯2. Baby Boom
ī¯3. Low Death Rate with increasing
number of elderly.
ī¯4. More women due to: a. longer life
expectancy and World Wars (I and
II)
ī¯5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs.
Signs of a future worker shortage
and an overall declining population.
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10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2025
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10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
80+ yrs.
AGE
PERCENT
Males(%)
Females(%)
Italy, 2050
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Beehive-shaped Pyramid
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Beehive-shaped Pyramid
Title: Singapore, 2000
Shape: Rocket-shaped / Narrow Base
– Low Birth Rates, Slow pop growth
Proportion: Large proportion of working
population, 15-59 yr old - large
group of economically active pop
Sex Ratio: Balanced pyramid
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Japan showing its
high number of
dependants to
working age
population
â€ĸlots of elderly
(nearly black color)
â€ĸ Working age
population (purple
color)
â€ĸfew kids (dark
purple color)
Result is high
Dependency Ratio
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Hong Kong
2000
Taiwan
2000
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Rectangular-shaped Pyramid
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Rectangular Pyramid
Title: Netherlands, 2000
Shape: Rectangular-shaped - Zero Pop Growth
Narrow Base - Low Birth Rates
- Life-expectancy is high e.g. 80+
- Low death rates
Proportion: Bars of equal length - Balance
Proportion
Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance Sex
Ratio
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PAKISTAN 2014
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PAKISTAN 2010
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Test Yourself
1. What does the vertical axis on the population pyramid
represent?
2. What type of population pyramid is indicative of a lesser
developed country?
3. What does a narrow base to the population pyramid
indicate?
4. What type of population pyramid has a triangular shape?
5. What type of population pyramid is wider at the
reproductive age than at the pre-reproductive ages.
6. _?_ are graphs that show the age structure of a
population by age & gender.
7. What type of population pyramid is depicted below?
What characteristic of this population pyramid indicate
its high death rate?
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Demography and Pyramids Of Pakistan

  • 1. MBBS.USMLE, DPH, Dip-Card, M.Phil, FCPS Assct: Professor Community Medicine Services Institute Of Medical Sciences Lahore. Ex-Asst Professor Community Medicine UmulQurrah University Makka Saudi Arabia
  • 2. 7/15/2022 2 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 3. Demography And Population of Pakistan 7/15/2022 3 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 4. 4 COUNTRY INTRODUCTION 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 5. Demography - Definition īƒŧ The term demography was coined by a Belgian statistician Achille Guillard in 1855 īƒŧ Derived from Greek word ‘demos’ meaning a human being īƒŧ Defined as: “ the study of human populations with respect to their size, distribution, structure and changes within them.”
  • 6. Demography - Definition īƒŧ SIZE: number of people at a given time īƒŧ DISTRIBUTION: arrangement of population in space at a given time īƒŧ STRUCTURE: distribution of population in age and sex groupings īƒŧ CHANGES: occur due to the growth or decline of the total population due to births, deaths, immigration and emigration
  • 7. What is Population? A group of individuals or items that share one or more characteristics from which data can be gathered and analyzed. 7/15/2022 7 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 8. World’s most populous countries are, China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Russia Nigeria 7/15/2022 8 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 9. Demography - Historically īƒŧ Confucius of China (500 B.C.): believed that excessive population growth depresses the living standards of the people īƒŧ Ancient Greeks Plato and Aristotle (300 B.C.) were of the view that the optimum size of the city-state can be achieved either by restricting or encouraging births with punishments or rewards
  • 10. Population Theories īƒŧ Theory: A description of an event, an explanation of why it happens, and gives a prediction about future event īƒŧ Two kinds of Population Theories: īƒŧ Macrolevel Theories (Malthus and Marx); and demographic transition theories īƒŧ Microlevel Theories – Cost utility theory
  • 11. Demographic Transition Theories īƒŧ Three stages theory (Old and New Balance) īƒŧ Five stages theory īƒŧ Epidemiological Transition
  • 12. Old Balance – New Balance ī¯ Old Balance: Death rate high, birth rate high – net result population size remain the same in balance ī¯ Transitional Stage: population increases because of imbalance in deaths and births ī¯ New balance: Death rates and birth rates are low and stay in balance with a threat of decline
  • 13. Epidemiological Transition THREE STAGES: coined by Omran in 1971 īƒŧ Age of pestilence and famine īƒŧ Age of receding epidemics and sanitation awareness īƒŧ Age of degenerative diseases
  • 14. Demographic Transition There are FIVE stages of demographic transition: īƒŧ Stage 1 – High Stationary īƒŧ Stage 2 – Early Expanding īƒŧ Stage 3 – Late Expanding īƒŧ Stage 4 – Low Stationary īƒŧ Stage 5 – Declining
  • 15. īƒŧ Pakistan is world 6th most populous country. īƒŧ With an Estimated population of Pakistan is 220,826,319 as of Sunday, June 28, 2020, īƒŧ Natural growth rate 2.50 (2020). īƒŧ With the same growth rate Pakistan will become the 4th largest nation in 2050. 7/15/2022 15 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 16. īƒ˜ With the median age of around 20 years. Therefor, it is called a “young” country. īƒ˜ Currently approximately 106 million below the age of 30 years. īƒ˜ Total working age of population is 122.03 million. īƒ˜ Labour force estimated 55 million as of 2014- 15. īƒ˜ Proportion of population residing in urban centres has risen to 36%. 7/15/2022 16 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 17. Factors affecting Distribution of population Topography Climate Soil Water Minerals 7/15/2022 17 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 18. Social Areas of better housing, education and health facilities are closely populated. Cultural Places with religious and cultural significance attract people. 7/15/2022 18 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 19. What is Demography? ī¯ Demography is the study of human populations (their size, composition and distribution across place, and the process through which populations change. ī¯ Births, deaths and migration are the ‘big three’ of demography, jointly producing population stability or change 7/15/2022 19 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 20. Demography is scientific study of human population It focuses on 3 phenomena: i. Changes in population size ii. Composition of population iii.Population distribution in space Important ‘demographic processes’ include: fertility, mortality, marriage, education & social mobility 7/15/2022 20 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 21. In a broader sense, additional characteristics such as ethnicity (race, mother tongue), social characteristics (marital status, literacy, educational attainment, women’s status), and economic characteristics (employment status, occupation, income) also need to be considered when describing population characteristics 1. Census 2. National Survey 3. Registration of vital events 4. Demographic Studies 7/15/2022 21 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 22. Population studies are concerned not only with population variables but also with relationships between population changes & other variables – social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environmental, health & the like Definition of Key Words īƒ˜ Size refers to the number persons in the population īƒ˜ Distribution refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time īƒ˜ Structure is the distribution of population among its sex & age groupings 7/15/2022 22 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 23. īƒ˜Change is the growth or decline of the total population or one of its structural units. The components of change total population are births, deaths, & migrations īƒ˜Age-Sex Composition of a population refers to the proportion of males & females in different age-groups. It has a direct bearing on social, economic, health needs of communities or countries. In an “old” population, for example, the society has to arrange for the care of the elderly, & the country’s health system must be organized accordingly. In a “young” population, on the other hand, the country has to provide more schools, immunizations, & economic support for the young īƒ˜Net-Migration refers to the total number of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of the combined effect of immigration & emigration 7/15/2022 23 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 24. īƒ˜Urbanization refers to mass migration of rural population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban population & growth of cities īƒ˜Population Growth Rate (%/ year) is the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. īƒ˜Population Doubling Time refers to the time that would take for a population to double. Because the population increase is on the compound interest formula, a 1% per year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 years. If the population is increasing at 3% per year, than the doubling time will be 23.3 years 7/15/2022 24 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 25. īƒ˜Population Pyramid is a pictorial presentation of the age-sex composition of a population īƒ˜Replacement Level Fertility (or Zero population growth) is activated when a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves. At a community scale, the replacement level is considered when there are, on the average, 2.1 births per woman, to compensate for child deaths īƒ˜Momentum of Population Growth is the characteristic of population growth when a sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase 7/15/2022 25 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 26. Population Dynamics īƒŧ Growth Rate īƒŧ Population Doubling Time īƒŧ Compound Growth
  • 27. Growth Rate īƒŧ It refers to the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is shown in percentage per year īƒŧ Population Growth = Natural Increase + Net Migration īƒŧ Natural Increase = (No. of Births – No. of Deaths) īƒŧ Net Migration = (IM - OM) īƒŧ Where IM = In migration i.e. No. of persons moving into an area īƒŧ OM = No. of persons moving out of an area
  • 28. Population Doubling Time īƒŧ It is the time that would take for a population to double itself Population Doubling time = 70 Growth rate īƒŧ If the growth rate is 2% and would remain so than the time for a population to double itself in number would be 70/2 = 35 years
  • 29. Population Dynamics ī¯ How to calculate the size of a population if we know the growth rate Pt1 = Pt0 (1 + r)t Pt1 = Future population Pt0 = Present Population r = Growth rate per cent t = number of years between t0 and t1
  • 30. There are four ways in which the number of people in an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1 Pt1 = Pto + (B – D) + (IM – OM) B = number of live births to mothers in the area D = number of residents died IM = number of persons moving into the area fro permanent residence OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live elsewhere Thus the population of an area may change due to natural reasons (B – D) known as natural increase or due to migration (IM – OM) known as net-migration. Subsequently: Population Growth = Natural Increase + Net Migration 7/15/2022 30 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 31. Compound Growth If the population of a city is 100000 and a growth rate of 5%. After 6 years it will be using the formula: Pt1 = Pt0 (1 + r)t Pt1 = 100000 (1 + 0.05)6 134009
  • 32. Population Growth Rate â€Ļis a measurement that combines both natural increase and net migration to calculate the overall growth of a country’s population. To calculate: Population Growth Rate = natural increase rate + net immigration rate/1000 x 100 (%) 7/15/2022 32 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 33. POPULATION DENSITY ī¯ 7/15/2022 33 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 34. While characteristic is an attribute of an individual (e.g. male, young, healthy, employed etc), composition is a property of a group of people. It describes how the total given population is constituted (e.g. 51% males, 20% below age 5, 85% healthy 7& 30% employed etc). Dependency Ratio is an index summarizing an age distribution. Strictly, this is he ratio of population who are economically not active to those who are economically active. However, due to the difficulties in defining economic activity in many countries, especially when international comparisons are made, a ratio of age group is used instead: 7/15/2022 34 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 35. Population Composition (Cont’d) Dependency Ratio = Children + Elderly X 100 Working Age = Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 15 – 64 years Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 95.1 Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 īƒ˜Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same population Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100 Number of Females 7/15/2022 35 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 36. Demographic Cycle World history suggests that every nation passes through a demographic cycle. The stages are: 1.High Stationary Stage: characterized by high birth rate and high death rate 2.Early Expanding: The death rate begins to decline while birth rate remains unchanged 3.Late Expanding: The death rate declined still further and birth rate tend to fall 4.Low Stationary Stage: Low birth and low death rates 5.Declining Stage: birth rate is lower than the death rate and population starts declining 7/15/2022 36 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 37. īƒ˜Old Balance: (High fertility & High Mortality) A large supply of births was necessary to compensate for the large number of deaths. MMR & IMR extremely high īƒ˜New Balance: (Low fertility & Low Mortality) Represents an improved condition of human efficiency & health, with fewer deaths considerably less efforts required to bring a generation to maturity. Production of agricultural & industrial commodities is greater & life style is more comfortable īƒ˜Imbalance: (High Fertility & Low Mortality) In between old & new balance is the period of rapid natural increase. This growth is helpful for under- populated nations. Too fast growth of population leading economic, social & political chaos ( being faced by numerous developing countries including Pakistan) 7/15/2022 37 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 38. Europe, Japan & USA Zero or very slow Low Low Europe 19th century, East Asian countries in the mid 20th century Slow Low Declining Europe 18th century, Pakistan 1970s Rapid Low High Europe 17th century, India 1930s – 40s Slow Declining High Europe prior to 15th century, most other developing countries till the 19th century Zero to very slow High High Example Natural Increase Death Rates Birth Rates 7/15/2022 38 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 39. 39 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializa tion: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Family Size -- planned Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -- The plan is to have fewer kids Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate Many children because few survive, high fertility rate Still many kids because expect few to survive high fertility Lower infant mortality rates -- less pressure to have children, fertility declines Small family size low fertility rate Family Economics Many children are needed to work the land Children are still useful for work Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids Women are working in great numbers 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 40. 40 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializati on: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Status of Kids Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Kids are an expense & “bling” Gender roles Strong sex roles Strong sex roles Emancipation of women Emancipation of women 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 41. DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022 41 Stage 1 : Pre industrializatio n: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low populatio n growth CDR High Death Rates Falling Death Rates Death rates Low Death rates Low Health Conditi ons Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease Improved diet, sanitation & medical care Slight improvemen t No change Transp ort Faciliti es Limited transport, trade & travel Improved transport to move food and doctors Slight Improvemen t Stable Child Deaths High child mortality before age 5 A decrease in child mortality Child mortality very low Stable 7/15/2022
  • 42. 7/15/2022 42 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 43. 7/15/2022 43 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 44. Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate 7/15/2022 44 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 45. 7/15/2022 45 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 46. Transition 1 ī¯ Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the small total population graph). There are many reasons for this: ī¯ little access to birth control ī¯ many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live ī¯ children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family ī¯ children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures ī¯ religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families ī¯ high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science. 7/15/2022 46 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 47. Stage 2 ī¯ Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown by the total population graph). The reasons for this could be: ī¯ improvements in medical care - hospitals, medicines, etc. ī¯ improvements in sanitation and water supply ī¯ quality and quantity of food produced rises ī¯ transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies ī¯ decrease in infant mortality. 7/15/2022 47 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 48. Stage 3 ī¯ Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant. The reasons for this could be: ī¯ increased access to contraception ī¯ lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family ī¯ industrialization and mechanization means fewer laborers are required ī¯ the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families as wealth increases ī¯ equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family. 7/15/2022 48 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 49. Stage 4 ī¯ Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. ī¯ This results in a steady population. 7/15/2022 49 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 50. Stage 5? ī¯ stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates. One such country is Germany, which has taken in foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to start declining by 2021. 7/15/2022 50 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 51. Examples ī¯ Population changes over time and space and the DTM can show both of these. Examples for both of these are shown below. Firstly, examples of countries that can be classed as exhibiting the population traits now, are shown as an example of how population can change over SPACE. Secondly, the dates the UK passed through each stage are indicated as an example of how population in one country can change over TIME. 7/15/2022 51 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 52. ī¯ Stage 1 Ethiopia / Bangladesh UK: pre-1780 ī¯ Stage 2 Sri Lanka / Brazil UK: 1780 - 1880 ī¯ Stage 3 Uruguay / China UK: 1880 - 1940 Stage 4 Canada / Japan UK: post-1940 7/15/2022 52 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 53. World Population Trend/ Population Dynamics: 2000 years ago 250 million population 1800 978 million 1900 1650 million 1950 2.5 billion 1970 3.6 billion 1980 4.4 billion 1985 4.8 billion 2000 To 2016 6 billion to 7.4 billion 7/15/2022 53 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 54. ī¯ The rampant population growth is viewed as the greatest obstacle to the economic & social development of the majority of peoples in the underdeveloped world ī¯ Approximately 95% of population growth is in developing countries ī¯ Currently, 1/3 of the world population is < 15, & will soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more potential for population growth ī¯ The expected number of births per woman, at current fertility rate is: īŽ Africa 6.1 īŽ Asia 3.2 īŽ Latin America 3.4 īŽ North America 2.0 īŽ Europe 1.6 7/15/2022 54 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 55. ī¯Economic implications Due to population explosion there are īŽ Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade īŽ Long term over next century and beyond economic affects ī¯Demographic Implications In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizen 7/15/2022 55 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 56. ī¯Environmental / Ecological Implications Due to population explosion there are īŽ Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade īŽ Long term over next century and beyond economic affects ī¯Social / Political Implications In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizens 7/15/2022 56 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 57. Age Pakistan U.K. 0 -14 44.5 22.2 15 – 64 51.2 60.0 65 & above 4.2 17.8 7/15/2022 57 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 58. Population Of Pakistan 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022 58
  • 59. Population Of Pakistan īƒŧ Pakistan is world 6th most populous country. īƒŧ With an Estimated population of Pakistan is 220,826,319 as of Sunday, June 28, 2020, īƒŧ Natural growth rate 2.50 (2020). īƒŧ With the same growth rate Pakistan will become the 4th largest nation in 2050. ī¯ 7/15/2022 59 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 60. Population of Pakistan (cont’d) ī¯ In general, it has also been found that where there is rapid population growth and high fertility rates, poverty incidence is also highest. 7/15/2022 60 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 61. Population dynamics in 2020 According to our estimations, daily change rates of Pakistan population in 2022 will be the following: ī¯ 12 767 live births average per day (531.97 in a hour) ī¯ 3 561 deaths average per day (148.38 in a hour) ī¯ -1 034 emigrants average per day (-43.10 in a hour) 7/15/2022 61 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 62. Population Causes Over Population Obstacles 7/15/2022 62 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 63. Population Causes Over Population Obstacles (cont’d) ī¯ Dangerous for economic development ī¯ Lower per capital income. ī¯ Low rate of savings. ī¯ Problems for education sector. ī¯ Housing problems. ī¯ Food shortage ī¯ Population and capital formation. ī¯ Unemployment. ī¯ Population and environment. 7/15/2022 63 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 64. Population of Pakistan ī¯ How much population of Pakistan in 2022? ī¯ 229,571,350 ī¯ The current population of Pakistan is 229,571,350 as of Wednesday, July 13, 2022, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022 64
  • 65. The current population of Pakistan in ī¯ 2022 is 235,824,862, a 1.91% increase from 2021. ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2021 was 231,402,117, a 1.85% increase from 2020. ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2020 was 227,196,741, a 1.75% increase from 2019. ī¯ The population of Pakistan in 2019 was 223,293,280, a 1.62% increase from 2018. 7/15/2022 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022 65
  • 66. Demography Of Pakistan ī¯ Nationality ī¯ Pakistani ī¯ Ethnic groups ī¯ Punjabi 44.68%, Pashtun (Pathan) 15.42%, Sindhi 14.1%, Sariaki 8.38%, Muhajirs 7.57%, Balochi 3.57%, other 6.28% ī¯ Religions ī¯ Muslim 96.4% (Sunni 85-90%, Shia 10-15%), other (includes Christian and Hindu) 3.6%. 7/15/2022 66 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 67. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d) īƒ˜ Age structure â€ĸ 0-14 years: 34.3% (male 33.59 billions/female 31.79 billions) â€ĸ 15-24 years: 21.5% (male 21.80 billions/female 20.46 billions) â€ĸ 25-54 years: 34.7% (male 36.39 billions/female 33.63 billions) â€ĸ 55-64 years: 5.1% (male 5.008 billions/female 5.04 billions) â€ĸ 65 years and over: 4.3% (male 3.95 billions/female 4.49 billions) 7/15/2022 67 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 68. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d) ī¯ Languages ī¯ Punjabi 48%, ī¯ Sindhi 12%, ī¯ Saraiki (a Punjabi variant) 10%, ī¯ Pashtu 8%, ī¯ Urdu (official) 8%, ī¯ Balochi 3%, ī¯ Hindko 2%, ī¯ Brahui 1%, ī¯ English (official), Burushaski, and other 8% 7/15/2022 68 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 69. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d) ī¯ Literacy ( the ability to read and write) ī¯ definition: age 15 and over can read and write total population: 54.9% male: 68.6% female: 40.3% ī¯ Education expenditures ī¯ 2.7% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (2009) and 5.5% (2018) 3.3% (2019e) −1.5% (2020e) 2.0% (2021e) 7/15/2022 69 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 70. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d) Educational institutions by kind ī¯ Primary schools: 156,592 ī¯ Middle schools: 320,611 ī¯ High schools: 23,964 ī¯ College of Arts and Sciences: 3,213 ī¯ Degree colleges: 1,202 ī¯ Technical and vocational institutions: 3,125 ī¯ Universities: 153 ( recognize by HEC) 7/15/2022 70 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 71. Demography Of Pakistan (cont’d) Health expenditures ī‚— 2.6% of GDP Urbanization Urban population ī¯ 36.2% of total population (2011). Rate of urbanization ī¯ 2.68% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.) 7/15/2022 71 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 72. Let’s Practice... Calculate Doubling Time: Country 70/population growth rate Doubling Time Canada 70 / 0.8% Togo 70 / 2.4% 7/15/2022 72 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 75. World Population 7/15/2022 75 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 76. Objectives ī¯WHAT is a population pyramid? ī¯HOW to read a population pyramid? ī¯Recognise SHAPES of population pyramids. ī¯IMPORTANCE of population pyramids. 7/15/2022 76 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 77. What is a population pyramid? ī¯ It is a diagram that gives information about the proportion of males and females in each age group. ī¯ Also shows: - proportion of young people (0 -14 ) - proportion of working people (15 – 59) - proportion of elderly people (60+) 7/15/2022 77 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 78. Population Pyramids â€ĸ A population pyramid is two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing females in a particular population in five-year age groups (also called cohorts). â€ĸ A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of its development. – Birth rate trends – Death rate trends – Number of economic dependents (<15, >65) 7/15/2022 78 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 79. What is a population pyramid? Vertical Axis - Age Groups Horizontal Axis – Percentage / number Young dependents Working population Elderly dependents 7/15/2022 79 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 80. Population Pyramids 7/15/2022 80 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 81. How to read a population pyramid? ī¯ Read the title e.g. country or city or racial group ī¯ Comment on general shape of the pyramid ī¯ Note the proportion of people in various age groups ī¯ Note the sex ratio ī¯ Interpret the data 7/15/2022 81 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 82. Types of Population Pyramid 1. Triangular-shaped 2. Beehive-shaped Pyramid 3. Rectangular-shaped Pyramid Shape of pyramids is controlled by īŽ births, īŽ deaths, & īŽ migrations. 7/15/2022 82 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 83. Reading Population Pyramids ī¯ Shape of sides: īŽ Concave sides indicate a high death rate and convex sides indicate a low death rate. īŽ If the population pyramid exhibits concave sides it indicates a high death rate. 7/15/2022 83 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 84. Dependency Ratio īĩ The working age of people varies. īĩ Traditionally people worked until they were 65 years old. īĩ The common trend now is for people to retire closer to 55 years of age. īĩ However, for statistic purposes we recognize people between 15 and 65 as the workers of a society. īĩ People under 15 and over 65 are considered dependant upon the working population. īĩ The dependency ratio (DR) of a population indicates how many people are dependant upon every 100 workers. The formula is DR = (pop. 0-14) + (pop. 65+)*100 (pop. 15-64) 7/15/2022 84 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 85. Descriptions ī¯ Bumps in the sides: īŽ Irregularities in the sides indicate a demographic anomaly. īŽ The 30 -50 age group in the population pyramid represents the baby boom. īŽ This bump will travel upward as the baby boomers age. ī¯ Classification: īŽ Indicates standard of living as described above. 7/15/2022 85 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 86. Triangular-shaped Pyramid (Broad-based Pyramid) 7/15/2022 86 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 87. Broad-based Pyramid Title: India, 2000 Shape: Broad Base - high birth rates Narrow Top - small elderly pop - high death rate Proportion: - Large proportion of young - high young dependency ratio Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance sex ratio 7/15/2022 87 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 88. Population Pyramids 7/15/2022 88 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 89. 7/15/2022 89 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 90. Population Pyramids in Transition 7/15/2022 90 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 91. Each pyramid tells a story about the past, present & future of a country & its people.
  • 92. Male Female Population in millions In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same. The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago. In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world 7/15/2022 92 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 93. Population in millions Male Female In this country the birth rate is decreasing. In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country. This is happening more and more in many of the world’s richer countries. 7/15/2022 93 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 94. Male Female Population in thousands This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job. 7/15/2022 94 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 95. Population Pyramids – Depression Baby Boom Aging Population 7/15/2022 95 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 96. Baby boomers? ī¯ Who are the baby boomers? ī¯ Baby boomers are the demographic group born during the post–World War II baby boom, approximately between the years 1946 and 1964. This includes people who are between 52 and 70 years old in 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 7/15/2022 96 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 97. Importance of Population Pyramids ī¯ Policy Planning ~ future housing estates ~ future schools ~ future jobs ī¯ Comparison with other countries ~ developed (US) vs developing (India) 7/15/2022 97 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 98. 7/15/2022 98 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 99. 7/15/2022 99 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 100. 7/15/2022 100 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 101. 7/15/2022 101 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 102. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0-4 yrs. 5-9 yrs. 10-14 yrs. 15-19 yrs. 20-24 yrs 25-29 yrs 30-34 yrs. 35-39 yrs. 40-44 yrs. 45-49 yrs. 50-54 yrs. 55-59 yrs. 60-64 yrs. 65-69 yrs. 70-74 yrs. 75-79 yrs. 80+ yrs. AGE PERCENT Males(%) Females(%) Italy, 2000 1 2 3 4 5 7/15/2022 102 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 103. Analysis of the Italy’s Pyramid ī¯1. Decline in Birth Rate ī¯2. Baby Boom ī¯3. Low Death Rate with increasing number of elderly. ī¯4. More women due to: a. longer life expectancy and World Wars (I and II) ī¯5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future worker shortage and an overall declining population. 7/15/2022 103 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 104. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0-4 yrs. 5-9 yrs. 10-14 yrs. 15-19 yrs. 20-24 yrs 25-29 yrs 30-34 yrs. 35-39 yrs. 40-44 yrs. 45-49 yrs. 50-54 yrs. 55-59 yrs. 60-64 yrs. 65-69 yrs. 70-74 yrs. 75-79 yrs. 80+ yrs. AGE PERCENT Males(%) Females(%) Italy, 2025 7/15/2022 104 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 105. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0-4 yrs. 5-9 yrs. 10-14 yrs. 15-19 yrs. 20-24 yrs 25-29 yrs 30-34 yrs. 35-39 yrs. 40-44 yrs. 45-49 yrs. 50-54 yrs. 55-59 yrs. 60-64 yrs. 65-69 yrs. 70-74 yrs. 75-79 yrs. 80+ yrs. AGE PERCENT Males(%) Females(%) Italy, 2050 7/15/2022 105 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 106. 7/15/2022 106 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 107. Beehive-shaped Pyramid 7/15/2022 107 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 108. Beehive-shaped Pyramid Title: Singapore, 2000 Shape: Rocket-shaped / Narrow Base – Low Birth Rates, Slow pop growth Proportion: Large proportion of working population, 15-59 yr old - large group of economically active pop Sex Ratio: Balanced pyramid 7/15/2022 108 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 109. DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022 Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population â€ĸlots of elderly (nearly black color) â€ĸ Working age population (purple color) â€ĸfew kids (dark purple color) Result is high Dependency Ratio 7/15/2022 109
  • 110. Hong Kong 2000 Taiwan 2000 7/15/2022 110 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 111. Rectangular-shaped Pyramid 7/15/2022 111 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 112. Rectangular Pyramid Title: Netherlands, 2000 Shape: Rectangular-shaped - Zero Pop Growth Narrow Base - Low Birth Rates - Life-expectancy is high e.g. 80+ - Low death rates Proportion: Bars of equal length - Balance Proportion Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid - Balance Sex Ratio 7/15/2022 112 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 113. PAKISTAN 2014 7/15/2022 113 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 114. PAKISTAN 2010 7/15/2022 114 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022
  • 115. Test Yourself 1. What does the vertical axis on the population pyramid represent? 2. What type of population pyramid is indicative of a lesser developed country? 3. What does a narrow base to the population pyramid indicate? 4. What type of population pyramid has a triangular shape? 5. What type of population pyramid is wider at the reproductive age than at the pre-reproductive ages. 6. _?_ are graphs that show the age structure of a population by age & gender. 7. What type of population pyramid is depicted below? What characteristic of this population pyramid indicate its high death rate? 7/15/2022 115 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED GMC 2022