This document provides an overview of polls and discusses several key concepts related to interpreting and reporting on polls. It notes that polling error can be expected to be around 2-2.2 percentage points on average and discusses how to identify reliable polls based on factors like the source, sample size, and methodology. It also explains important polling concepts like margins of error, confidence intervals, and how a poll of polls can provide a more accurate picture than any single poll.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Having examined William Hague's leadership of the Conservative Party in 1999 across 7 key opinion points, we have applied the same tests to Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party. William Hague scored 2 out of 7. How does Ed Miliband score?
Leaders, policies and voting: Lessons from measuring Implicit Reaction TimeIpsos UK
New research published today by Ipsos MORI for the 2017 General Election provides an insight into not just what people say about their voting intentions and support for a party or candidate, but also the conviction of these views.
Using a technique called Implicit Reaction Time (IRT), which measures how quickly people express an opinion, the research explores how emphatic people are in their responses regarding their views of the candidates, the political parties, and voting behaviour.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: September 2016Ipsos UK
As party conference season begins new Ipsos MORI polling reveals the public remain more positive about the new Prime Minister than they do Jeremy Corbyn on many key leader image attributes.
Theresa May continues to enjoy her honeymoon period with more than half (54%) of Britons satisfied with her performance as Prime Minister and 27% saying they are dissatisfied – leaving her a net satisfaction score of +27 (although down by 8 points from last month). Jeremy Corbyn however continues to struggle with public approval with 27% satisfied in him doing his job as leader of the Labour party and three in five (58%) dissatisfied - leaving him a net score of -31 (up 2 points). While Theresa May has overwhelming support from her own party (81% satisfied and 6% dissatisfied) Labour voters are split on their assessment of their leader (47% satisfied vs. 46% dissatisfied, although this has improved since August).
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
An Ipsos MORI poll of just over 1,000 British adults finds expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Having examined William Hague's leadership of the Conservative Party in 1999 across 7 key opinion points, we have applied the same tests to Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party. William Hague scored 2 out of 7. How does Ed Miliband score?
Leaders, policies and voting: Lessons from measuring Implicit Reaction TimeIpsos UK
New research published today by Ipsos MORI for the 2017 General Election provides an insight into not just what people say about their voting intentions and support for a party or candidate, but also the conviction of these views.
Using a technique called Implicit Reaction Time (IRT), which measures how quickly people express an opinion, the research explores how emphatic people are in their responses regarding their views of the candidates, the political parties, and voting behaviour.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: September 2016Ipsos UK
As party conference season begins new Ipsos MORI polling reveals the public remain more positive about the new Prime Minister than they do Jeremy Corbyn on many key leader image attributes.
Theresa May continues to enjoy her honeymoon period with more than half (54%) of Britons satisfied with her performance as Prime Minister and 27% saying they are dissatisfied – leaving her a net satisfaction score of +27 (although down by 8 points from last month). Jeremy Corbyn however continues to struggle with public approval with 27% satisfied in him doing his job as leader of the Labour party and three in five (58%) dissatisfied - leaving him a net score of -31 (up 2 points). While Theresa May has overwhelming support from her own party (81% satisfied and 6% dissatisfied) Labour voters are split on their assessment of their leader (47% satisfied vs. 46% dissatisfied, although this has improved since August).
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
An Ipsos MORI poll of just over 1,000 British adults finds expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.
Ipsos MORI’s July Political Monitor reveals that over half (55%) believe that Theresa May has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, up from 28% in July 2015. Her ratings are particularly high among Conservative voters, among whom 81% think she has what it takes.
Mrs May’s ratings are well ahead of those for Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson. One in five (18%) think that Andrea Leadsom has what it takes to be a good PM (20% among Conservative voters), and 21% say the same about Boris Johnson (23% among Conservative voters). Mr Johnson’s ratings have fallen since last year – now 70% disagree he has what it takes, up from 52% last July. Fieldwork was conducted 9-11 July, with the vast majority carried out before Andrea Leadsom retired from the race.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - November 2016Ipsos UK
Weeks after the High Court’s decision requiring the government to receive parliamentary approval before Article 50 is triggered, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals the public are split when it comes to what role parliament should take when initiating the start to Britain’s exit from the European Union. Even so, Britons are on balance critical of the government’s handling of Brexit.
Forty-four percent believe that parliament’s role should be to only vote on triggering Article 50, while 37% think that parliament should have a further role telling the government what terms Britain’s future relationship with the EU should be. Opinion is largely divided along those groups who either voted for Leave or Remain. Three in five (61%) Conservative supporters believe parliament should only vote on triggering Article 50 compared with three in five Labour supporters (60%) and 53% Lib Dem supporters who want parliament to have more of a role setting the terms of the negotiations. Half (51%) of those without a qualification also want parliament to just vote on triggering Article 50, while half (51%) of graduates want parliament to determine the terms of Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
Theresa May is enjoying a warm honeymoon welcome with the public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (54%) say they are satisfied with Ms May’s performance in her first month as PM while one in five (19%) say they are dissatisfied – leaving her with a net satisfaction score of +35. This is comparable to her predecessor David Cameron’s rating in June 2010 when 57% were satisfied with him doing his job as PM and 26% dissatisfied. Although higher than those of John Major and Gordon Brown in their first month as Prime Minister, May’s satisfaction ratings are still behind Tony Blair’s first month back in May 1997 (65% were satisfied and 5% dissatisfied).
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: November 2015Ipsos UK
With less than a week to go until the next Autumn Statement new Ipsos MORI polling shows growing public concern about the government’s plans for public services. Our latest Political Monitor shows two in three (67%) Britons disagree the government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services, up from 60% before the election and at its highest level since 2001.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2015 - Views on Europe & Economic OptimismIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI's Political Monitor shows how the lead of the 'Stay in/remain' side in the EU debate has narrowed since June 2015. Also, it shows how British economic optimism is now at its lowest since 2013.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2015: Labour Leadership ElectionIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI's June 2015 Political Monitor looks at Labour's leadership election candidates, as well as some interim headline voting intention figures post-GE2015.
Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...Ipsos UK
The second instalment of Ipsos MORI's June 2015 Political Monitor looks at the EU Referendum, Leader and government satisfaction and IPSA's salary recommendations for MPs.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016Ipsos UK
As David Cameron ramps up his efforts this week to secure a new deal for Britain in the EU Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little change from January amongst the public when it comes to how they will vote in the referendum on EU membership. When asked the referendum question “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” the poll finds a majority (54%) would vote to remain a member (down 1 point from January) and 36% would vote to leave (no change). Ipsos MORI’s trend question on EU membership also reveals little difference from last month. When asked “if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?” half (51%) would vote to stay in (up 1 point) while 36% would vote to get out (down 2 points).
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2015Ipsos UK
Most Britons believe that David Cameron will campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union after his negotiations with other European leaders, according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor, even though only 18% think he will achieve all or most of his goals. The survey reveals that 68% think the Prime Minister will campaign for Britain to remain a member in the upcoming referendum (including both 73% of Conservative supporters and 71% of supporters of other parties), while 17% think he will campaign for Britain to leave (just 1% thinks he will remain neutral).
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor 2018Ipsos UK
As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.
One week following George Osborne’s budget announcement Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor show his satisfaction ratings have fallen compared to one month ago. Three in five (60%) say they are dissatisfied with the performance of Mr Osborne (up 14 points from February) compared to one in four (27%) who say they are satisfied (down 13 points). This equals George Osborne’s worst performance in March 2013. Mr Osborne still has the backing of most of his party with three in five (58%) Conservative supporters saying they are satisfied with the Chancellor (although 31% are dissatisfied).
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: September 2015Ipsos UK
Less than two weeks into his tenure as the new Labour leader Ipsos MORI’s detailed image ratings show the public’s views on Jeremy Corbyn and the party he leads.
More than half (54%) of Britons say Jeremy Corbyn is ‘more honest than most politicians’ compared to three in ten (30%) who say the same for David Cameron. However only 32% think he’s a capable leader compared to 62% saying this for David Cameron. When asked if either ‘has sound judgment’ 32% say Mr Corbyn possesses this while 46% say Mr Cameron does. Less of the public however believe that Jeremy Corbyn is ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ when compared to David Cameron (39% versus 64%), but he falls far behind David Cameron when being seen as ‘patriotic’ (37% compared to 76%).
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
The spotlight is on pollsters in the UK, following the performance of the polls at the 2015 General Election. Are we alone in facing this challenge, or is it a global issue? Does the experience in other countries point to what we should be doing in the UK?
Ipsos has many of the leading polling experts from around the world, and we brought them together in London to provide unique combined insight. Our panel members from the US, Canada, Italy and Sweden talked us through the role and challenges of polling in their countries and what we need to do to get it right. They also updated us on the political landscape of their countries, with outlines of the major elections they have recently had, and in the case of the US, the on-going race to the White House.
Ipsos MORI’s July Political Monitor reveals that over half (55%) believe that Theresa May has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, up from 28% in July 2015. Her ratings are particularly high among Conservative voters, among whom 81% think she has what it takes.
Mrs May’s ratings are well ahead of those for Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson. One in five (18%) think that Andrea Leadsom has what it takes to be a good PM (20% among Conservative voters), and 21% say the same about Boris Johnson (23% among Conservative voters). Mr Johnson’s ratings have fallen since last year – now 70% disagree he has what it takes, up from 52% last July. Fieldwork was conducted 9-11 July, with the vast majority carried out before Andrea Leadsom retired from the race.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - November 2016Ipsos UK
Weeks after the High Court’s decision requiring the government to receive parliamentary approval before Article 50 is triggered, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals the public are split when it comes to what role parliament should take when initiating the start to Britain’s exit from the European Union. Even so, Britons are on balance critical of the government’s handling of Brexit.
Forty-four percent believe that parliament’s role should be to only vote on triggering Article 50, while 37% think that parliament should have a further role telling the government what terms Britain’s future relationship with the EU should be. Opinion is largely divided along those groups who either voted for Leave or Remain. Three in five (61%) Conservative supporters believe parliament should only vote on triggering Article 50 compared with three in five Labour supporters (60%) and 53% Lib Dem supporters who want parliament to have more of a role setting the terms of the negotiations. Half (51%) of those without a qualification also want parliament to just vote on triggering Article 50, while half (51%) of graduates want parliament to determine the terms of Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
Theresa May is enjoying a warm honeymoon welcome with the public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (54%) say they are satisfied with Ms May’s performance in her first month as PM while one in five (19%) say they are dissatisfied – leaving her with a net satisfaction score of +35. This is comparable to her predecessor David Cameron’s rating in June 2010 when 57% were satisfied with him doing his job as PM and 26% dissatisfied. Although higher than those of John Major and Gordon Brown in their first month as Prime Minister, May’s satisfaction ratings are still behind Tony Blair’s first month back in May 1997 (65% were satisfied and 5% dissatisfied).
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: November 2015Ipsos UK
With less than a week to go until the next Autumn Statement new Ipsos MORI polling shows growing public concern about the government’s plans for public services. Our latest Political Monitor shows two in three (67%) Britons disagree the government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services, up from 60% before the election and at its highest level since 2001.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2015 - Views on Europe & Economic OptimismIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI's Political Monitor shows how the lead of the 'Stay in/remain' side in the EU debate has narrowed since June 2015. Also, it shows how British economic optimism is now at its lowest since 2013.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2015: Labour Leadership ElectionIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI's June 2015 Political Monitor looks at Labour's leadership election candidates, as well as some interim headline voting intention figures post-GE2015.
Ipsos MORI June 2015 Political Monitor: EU, Leader and government satisfactio...Ipsos UK
The second instalment of Ipsos MORI's June 2015 Political Monitor looks at the EU Referendum, Leader and government satisfaction and IPSA's salary recommendations for MPs.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016Ipsos UK
As David Cameron ramps up his efforts this week to secure a new deal for Britain in the EU Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little change from January amongst the public when it comes to how they will vote in the referendum on EU membership. When asked the referendum question “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” the poll finds a majority (54%) would vote to remain a member (down 1 point from January) and 36% would vote to leave (no change). Ipsos MORI’s trend question on EU membership also reveals little difference from last month. When asked “if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?” half (51%) would vote to stay in (up 1 point) while 36% would vote to get out (down 2 points).
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2015Ipsos UK
Most Britons believe that David Cameron will campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union after his negotiations with other European leaders, according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor, even though only 18% think he will achieve all or most of his goals. The survey reveals that 68% think the Prime Minister will campaign for Britain to remain a member in the upcoming referendum (including both 73% of Conservative supporters and 71% of supporters of other parties), while 17% think he will campaign for Britain to leave (just 1% thinks he will remain neutral).
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor 2018Ipsos UK
As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.
One week following George Osborne’s budget announcement Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor show his satisfaction ratings have fallen compared to one month ago. Three in five (60%) say they are dissatisfied with the performance of Mr Osborne (up 14 points from February) compared to one in four (27%) who say they are satisfied (down 13 points). This equals George Osborne’s worst performance in March 2013. Mr Osborne still has the backing of most of his party with three in five (58%) Conservative supporters saying they are satisfied with the Chancellor (although 31% are dissatisfied).
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: September 2015Ipsos UK
Less than two weeks into his tenure as the new Labour leader Ipsos MORI’s detailed image ratings show the public’s views on Jeremy Corbyn and the party he leads.
More than half (54%) of Britons say Jeremy Corbyn is ‘more honest than most politicians’ compared to three in ten (30%) who say the same for David Cameron. However only 32% think he’s a capable leader compared to 62% saying this for David Cameron. When asked if either ‘has sound judgment’ 32% say Mr Corbyn possesses this while 46% say Mr Cameron does. Less of the public however believe that Jeremy Corbyn is ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ when compared to David Cameron (39% versus 64%), but he falls far behind David Cameron when being seen as ‘patriotic’ (37% compared to 76%).
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
The spotlight is on pollsters in the UK, following the performance of the polls at the 2015 General Election. Are we alone in facing this challenge, or is it a global issue? Does the experience in other countries point to what we should be doing in the UK?
Ipsos has many of the leading polling experts from around the world, and we brought them together in London to provide unique combined insight. Our panel members from the US, Canada, Italy and Sweden talked us through the role and challenges of polling in their countries and what we need to do to get it right. They also updated us on the political landscape of their countries, with outlines of the major elections they have recently had, and in the case of the US, the on-going race to the White House.
Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final WeekIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI is hosted a 2015 general election briefing in the final week before the polls closed. This session drew together comparisons with Ipsos MORI’s unique dataset of regular polling since the 1970s and results from our latest research. We also covered the issues driving the election, as well as the implications for public services and the political landscape.
These slides were presented by Ben Page, CEO, Ipsos MORI and Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI at our breakfast briefing on 10th April 2015. As well as Ben and Gideon, the panel featured Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and Joe Murphy, Political Editor at The Evening Standard.
Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 electionIpsos UK
Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos MORI presents his initial view of the accuracy of polls in the UK's Election of 2015. Read our statement here: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1680/In-response-to-the-2015-Election-results.aspx
In new research carried out by Ipsos MORI and King’s College London, just under half of Britons (45%) say it is very important to them who wins the election, matching figures normally seen at the very height of the election campaign itself in 2010 and 2005. Indeed, only six months before the last election in November 2009, just 35% said the election result was very important to them. More infomation: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/oneyearout
Nigeria's February 14 elections : Popular opinions and attitudesAfrobarometer
Ahead of Nigeria's 2015 elections, this Afrobarometer poll shows that elections are too close to call. Check out more in this presentation presented on January 27, 2014 in Lagos.
In a unique survey, Ipsos MORI will be interviewing a longitudinal panel of respondents on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign.
This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views change.
For the first wave we have also interviewed an unusually large sample of the public (over 4,500), which allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - EuropeIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.
Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014Ipsos UK
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index.
On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.
Attitudes to immigration: National issue or global challenge?Ipsos UK
On 15 March 2018, a group of Ipsos experts from around the world, along with Sarah Cutler of the Migration Exchange, gathered in London to debate global and national attitudes to immigration.
Presentation by Christian D'Cunha at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Luc Steinberg at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Ula Furgal at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Samantha Bradshaw at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Anna Herold at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Bernd Holznagel at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Damian Tambini at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Federica Casarosa at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Gabriela Jacomella at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
Presentation by Wessel Reijers at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
A presentation by Pier Luigi Parcu on Artificial Intelligence, elections, media pluralism and media freedom at the European Artificial Intelligence Observatory April 2, 2019
UNESCO's Internet Universality Indicators - A Framework for Assessing Internet Development.
Presented by Adeline Hulin at 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between on Risks and New Threats
Presentation from Lubos Kuklis of ERGA (European Regulators Group for Audiovisual Media Services).
Presented at the 2018 CMPF Conference "Monitoring Media Pluralism - Between Old Risks and New Threats,"
A presentation from Urska Umek at the Council of Europe on the Online and offline threats to media pluralism. Presented at the 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between Old Risks and New Threats.
More from Centre for Media Pluralism and Media Freedom (20)
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxtimhan337
Personal development courses are widely available today, with each one promising life-changing outcomes. Tim Han’s Life Mastery Achievers (LMA) Course has drawn a lot of interest. In addition to offering my frank assessment of Success Insider’s LMA Course, this piece examines the course’s effects via a variety of Tim Han LMA course reviews and Success Insider comments.
2. OUTLINE:
1. Introduction
2. Polling errors
3. How to identify good and bad polls
4. Important concepts around polls
5. Poll of polls
6. The 2019 European Parliament elections on politico.eu
7. How to report polls
3. POLLS HAVE A BAD
REPUTATION
WITH GOOD REASON?
3
INTRODUCTION
5. THE POLLING ERROR
1. Can be expected to be around 2-2.2
percentage points
2. Is very consistent over time and across
elections.
3. Can be factored in.
4. Has to be clearly communicated.
5
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Source: Jennings and Wlezien (2018) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0315-6
6. POLL ERRORS ACROSS
ELECTORAL HISTORY
a: the absolute error for all
parties/candidates.
• Hollow grey circle: error for each party
• Black circle: mean absolute error across
all parties
b: the mean absolute error.
c: the mean absolute error on the margin.
d: the mean absolute value of the log odds
ratio.
e: the variance of the mean absolute error.
f: the variance of the mean absolute error
6
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Source: Jennings and Wlezien (2018) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0315-6
7. POLLING ERROR FOR THE AUSTRIAN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
• Average 1.35 percentage points
• Polls with larger sample size and shorter
field period perform better
7
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
8. POLLING ERROR IN
DENMARK
• 1.36 percentage points polling error
• Timing matters
• Method matters
• Quality matters
8
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
9. 9
BUT WHAT ABOUT TRUMP AND BREXIT?
Brexit:
• The day before the referendum poll of polls showed 48% for remain 45% for leave, but 10 undecided!
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
A CLOSER LOOK
2016 US Presidential election:
• Chances 70:30 – trump would win every third election. Would you get on a plane if every third would crash?
• National polls were correct for popular vote, but electoral college is what matters.
• Polls in key swing states with above average polling error overall 5 percentage points absolute error on average.
• Trump won the election with very small margin in important states.
10. 10
BUT WHAT ABOUT TRUMP AND BREXIT?
Brexit:
• The weeks before the referendum poll of polls showed 48% for remain 45% for leave, but 10 undecided! All polls:
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
A CLOSER LOOK
11. 11
HOW TO IDENTIFY GOOD AND BAD POLLS
6 KEY CRITERIA
• Source: In most cases a news outlet commissions the polls and publishes it in an article, trustworthy newspaper?
• Field work: When was the poll conducted?
• Sample size: How many people where interviewed? Rule of thumb: >800
• Methodology: Was the poll conducted online, in face-to-face interviews or via telephone?
• Number of undecided voters: Do the figures add up to 100% or is the % of undecided published?
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
12. “REPRESENTATIVE”
12
• Each person in the group in question has the same
change to be interviewed.
• Has nothing to do with sample size
• Has nothing to do with population size either
• How to chose representative sample?
• Two methods: random sampling or quota sampling
• E.g. randomly drawn phone numbers
• Set quotas for gender, age, etc., which have to be
met in the polling region, used in online panels.
• Weighting for underrepresented , non-response
adjustment.
A good (=representative) small sample is better than a
bad large sample!
To taste a soup you don’t have to empty the pot, a
spoonful will do!
IMPORTANT CONCEPTS WHEN REPORTING ABOUT POLLS
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
13. THE MARGIN OF ERROR CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
13
• tells you how many percentage points your results will
differ from the real population value.
• the range of values below and above the sample
statistic in a confidence interval.
• For simple random sample approximated:
• For the percentage value “p” of a specific party in a poll
• Therefore, smaller for smaller parties.
• a way to show what the uncertainty is with a certain
poll.
• E.g. 1000 people interviewed, party A at 33% → Margin
of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points → Confidence
interval of 30.1 and 35.9.
• if the poll is repeated using the same techniques, 95%
of the calculated intervals will include the “true”
population value.
IMPORTANT CONCEPTS WHEN REPORTING ABOUT POLLS
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Note: https://www.langerresearch.com/moe/ offers a margin of error calculator
𝑀𝑜𝐸 ≅
0.98
√𝑛
𝑀𝑜𝐸 = 1.96
0.33(1 − 0.33)
1000
= 2.91% → +/- MoE → Confidence Interval
𝑀𝑜𝐸 = 1.96
𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
𝑛
14. 14
OTHER ERRORS
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Other sources of potential bias:
• Sampling Error – because you don’t poll the entire population
• Coverage Error – some groups can’t be polled
• Measurement Error – bad wording of question, bad instruments etc.
• Non-Response Error – bias because of who responds to poll and who doesn’t.
• All together = Total Survey Error
15. 15
AN EXAMPLE FOR THE MEASUREMENT ERROR
THE POLLS ARE AL(L)RIGHT
Source: https://twitter.com/alemannoEU
17. PARABLE OF THE THREE
RINGS (OR POLLSTERS)
Which poll is the one to trust?
17
WHICH POLL IS THE ONE TO TRUST?
#POLLOFPOLLS
18. IS THERE A HOUSE
EFFECT?
• Polls ahead of the Swedish parliament
election 2018 by pollster reveal significant
differences.
• YouGov and Sentio constantly
overestimated Sweden democrats.
• Their method? – Online polls only
• In 2014 all pollsters underestimated
Sweden Democrats, YouGov and Sentio to
a lesser extent
• Shy Sweden Democrats-supporters?
• Less reluctant to reveal voting intention in
“anonymous” online polls?
• In 2018 overcorrected or did response
behavior change?
18
#POLLOFPOLLS
19. COMBINING POLLS REVEALS TRENDS AND OUTLIERS
19
#POLLOFPOLLS
Source: pollofpolls.eu/FR
NOT ONLY FOR VOTING INTENTION
• Don’t cherry-pick one poll, where there
are more.
• Our aggregation model uses the so-called
Kalman filtering approach + smoothing to
track the trends in the polls.
Kalman filter can be explained with
“GPS”-analogy:
• Support for a party is the “true” location
• In your Map-app, the blue circle around
your GPS-location is the uncertainty,
every new signal (poll) from the satellite
(polling firm) improves the location and
who will find your way.
22. POLITICO EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS HUB
• The only daily updated seat estimate
• Interactive
• Coalition builder
• Figures with and without UK
• Filter by country
• Map view
22
#EP2019
Source: politico.eu/EU2019
23. OUR SEAT PROJECTION OVER TIME
23
#EP2019
• Relatively stable
• Clear from beginning that
EPP+S&D < 50% of seats
• Biggest shifts due to group changes of
individual parties
• Brexit analysis
• Challenge was how to deal with new
groups and (unofficially) announced
group changes.
25. 25
HOW ACCURATE WERE THE POLLS?
• Overall very good
• Big upsets in Slovakia (PS+SPOLU), Lithuania
(LVZS)
• Green parties underestimated in Ireland, Austria,
Germany.
• Almost no polls in the Netherlands
• No polls in Luxembourg
• No polls after Ibizagate broke in Austria
#EP2019
POLLING ERROR ACROSS
ALL 28 EU COUNTRIES
28. HOW TO REPORT POLLS
1. Check for key criteria
2. Report key criteria (polling firm,
commissioned by, field period, sample
size, method)
3. Look at figures with margin of error in
mind
4. Report trend compared to last poll from
same polling firm
5. Don’t overinterpret small number
1. One percentage point lead is not a
lead
2. One percentage point change is not a
real change but statistical noise
28
#CASESTUDY
29. 29
FROM POLLS TO HEADLINES
“Italians in 2019 hate chicken, Greek salad overtaking fish!”
When looking at polling results, always look for the PQRST:
P. Polling Firm: Cornelius Hirsch? Never heard of that polling firm, also can’t find a website or another published poll.
Q. Question: Chicken was not polled, international respondents.
R. Results: Others and/or undecided are not reported
S. Sample size: <800 people polled, <400 declared voting intention
T. Timing: One day polling period in June 2019.
#CASESTUDY
30. 30
FROM POLLS TO HEADLINES
(Bloomberg) — Greece's main opposition new democracy party would win parliamentary elections with a 9 percentage
point lead if they were held now, according to a pulse RC poll for Skai TV.
New democracy, a conservative party, would get from 31.5% to 36.5% of the vote compared with 22.5% to 27.5% for the
governing leftist SYRIZA party, according to the poll. The survey is the first since prime minister Alexis Tsipras called a
snap national ballot following his party’s defeat in European elections a week ago.
The center-left movement for change would come third with 6.5% to 9.5% of the vote, the communist party of Greece
fourth with 4.5% to 6.6%, the far-right golden dawn party fifth with 4% to 6% and Greek solution, a new nationalist party,
placed sixth with 3% to 5%. Mera25, the new party of former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis would receive from 2% to
4% of the vote. Parties need to reach the threshold of 3% to elect a member to parliament.
Pulse RC surveyed 1,358 people from may 30 to June 1. The margin of error was +/- [XY] Calculate margin of error!
Key characteristcs?
#CASESTUDY
Source: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/new-democracy-wins-first-poll-since-tsiprass-snap-election-call
INVENT A TITLE
31. POLL OF POLLS FOR THE 2019 GREEK SNAP ELECTION
31
#CASESTUDY
Source: pollofpolls.eu/GR
ONE POLL CAN BE AN OUTLIER, IT’S ALWAYS BETTER TO LOOK AT THE POLL OF POLLS
Interpretation?
Significant lead? → Larger than 2 x MoE
(conservative estimate 2 percentage points)
→ Yes
Increasing trend? In Jan – May 2019 ND
around 36-37%, now 39% → “Slightly”
Golden Dawn significantly decreasing.
Electoral threshold in Greece of 4%, small
parties significantly below or above?
32. 32
RECAP
Polls are
…accurate, with an average margin of error of around 2 percentage points.
…only a snapshot in time.
…more insightful when aggregated, revealing trends and outliers.
…one tool of many to assess an election campaign.
…like a fine perfume, you should smell it, but not drink it.
Surveys on twitter or on websites, where anyone can respond as often as they like, are “clickers” – they are not “polls”.
To Remember
• Margin of Error depends on sample size and not on population size.
• Confidence Interval shows uncertainty.
• Representativeness depends on chance to get interviewed, not on sample size or population size.
33. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
LET’S STAY IN TOUCH
@VollCornHirsch
chirsch@politico.eu
pollofpolls@politico.eu