I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155
E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
The concepts and processes on how to perform project risk management according to PMBOK Guide 6th edition. You'll find key concepts and terms, plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative & quantitative risks analysis, plan risk responses, implement risk responses, and monitor risks.
The risk is one of the main variables that can declare the success or the failure of one project.
In this presentation, the "Project Risk" topic is treated from the point of view of methodology and theory; a real case study ("PMP certification course") has been chosen to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology in which risk management has proven to be the key factor for the success of the project.
PMP, PMBOK (R) 5th Edition,
CH: 11: Project Risk Management
--> Represents one of two biggest chapters, of the PMBOK
==> Too much useful, for the people who have concern in the project management field, & the risk management field as well
Summary:
Risk
Risk management
Risk Management process groups
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Responses
Control Risks
Excited to share my presentation on Lesson 03 - "Doing the Work" for PMI Authorized PMP Exam Preparation! 📊🌐
In this session, I'll delve into the core aspects of effective project management, aligning your skills with PMI's renowned PMP certification. We'll explore the art of translating theory into practical action, delivering tangible results in complex projects. Join me in unraveling the secrets to success in the PMP exam journey! 💡🚀
#PMPExam #ProjectManagement #PMP #PMI #Certification #ProfessionalGrowth
The concepts and processes on how to perform project risk management according to PMBOK Guide 6th edition. You'll find key concepts and terms, plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative & quantitative risks analysis, plan risk responses, implement risk responses, and monitor risks.
The risk is one of the main variables that can declare the success or the failure of one project.
In this presentation, the "Project Risk" topic is treated from the point of view of methodology and theory; a real case study ("PMP certification course") has been chosen to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology in which risk management has proven to be the key factor for the success of the project.
PMP, PMBOK (R) 5th Edition,
CH: 11: Project Risk Management
--> Represents one of two biggest chapters, of the PMBOK
==> Too much useful, for the people who have concern in the project management field, & the risk management field as well
Summary:
Risk
Risk management
Risk Management process groups
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Responses
Control Risks
Excited to share my presentation on Lesson 03 - "Doing the Work" for PMI Authorized PMP Exam Preparation! 📊🌐
In this session, I'll delve into the core aspects of effective project management, aligning your skills with PMI's renowned PMP certification. We'll explore the art of translating theory into practical action, delivering tangible results in complex projects. Join me in unraveling the secrets to success in the PMP exam journey! 💡🚀
#PMPExam #ProjectManagement #PMP #PMI #Certification #ProfessionalGrowth
Episode 25 : Project Risk Management
Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management.
Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning and the contents of a risk management plan.
List common sources of risks in engineering and information technology projects.
Describe the risk identification process, tools, and techniques to help identify project risks, and the main output of risk identification, a risk register.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
In this presentation we look at approach of analyzing risks, we get into details of qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. This presentation will help professionals who are preparing for PMP certification exam
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
Project risk analysis methodology and how RiskyProject software can be used for quantitative project risk analysis.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options, selecting strategies, and agreeing on actions to address overall project risk exposure, as well as to treat individual project risks
Pmbok 5th planning process group part four _ Project Risk ManagementHossam Maghrabi
This is PMBOK Guide Planning Process Group Part Four. It includes one Knowledge Area - Project Risk Management - with five processes - Plan Risk Management, Identify Risks, Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, Plan Risk Responses -.
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
Episode 25 : Project Risk Management
Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management.
Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning and the contents of a risk management plan.
List common sources of risks in engineering and information technology projects.
Describe the risk identification process, tools, and techniques to help identify project risks, and the main output of risk identification, a risk register.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
In this presentation we look at approach of analyzing risks, we get into details of qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. This presentation will help professionals who are preparing for PMP certification exam
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
Project risk analysis methodology and how RiskyProject software can be used for quantitative project risk analysis.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options, selecting strategies, and agreeing on actions to address overall project risk exposure, as well as to treat individual project risks
Pmbok 5th planning process group part four _ Project Risk ManagementHossam Maghrabi
This is PMBOK Guide Planning Process Group Part Four. It includes one Knowledge Area - Project Risk Management - with five processes - Plan Risk Management, Identify Risks, Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, Plan Risk Responses -.
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155
E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
Pmbok 4th edition chapter 3 - Project Management Processes for a Project Ahmad Maharma, PMP,RMP
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
I am Continuously seeking to improve my competencies and skills to provide first class professional Project Management training courses; and develop my scope experience in Project Management functions.
I am confident that my innovative and results-focused approach would make significant contribution to the continued success of your organization.
this is the first presentations uploaded to Slide Share,
For more information do not hesitate to contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma - PMP®
Ramallah, Palestine
Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155E-Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com
Version 5 is out, and this applies for the now older version 4 PMP exam. I will not likely update this, but if someone is interested in completing or revising this to version 5 standards let me know.
The Presentation is a part of Webinar held on 18-12-2011 and consists of the following topics:
1. PMP Quick Facts-What is PMP, PMI
2.How is Exam structurd and what are the associated expenses
3. What are Process Groups, Knowledge Areas and Processes
The Last Slide contains link to my site, where brief details about the topics mentioned in the presentation has been posted.
Agile Project Management for elearning developmentDon Bolen
Deck used in eLearning Guild DevLearn 11 presentation. See more links, resources at http://marginallycompetent.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/resources-for-elg-agile-pm-for-elearning-development/
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
How to Create Map Views in the Odoo 17 ERPCeline George
The map views are useful for providing a geographical representation of data. They allow users to visualize and analyze the data in a more intuitive manner.
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
The Indian economy is classified into different sectors to simplify the analysis and understanding of economic activities. For Class 10, it's essential to grasp the sectors of the Indian economy, understand their characteristics, and recognize their importance. This guide will provide detailed notes on the Sectors of the Indian Economy Class 10, using specific long-tail keywords to enhance comprehension.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
2. PM Knowledge Areas & Process Groups
PM Process Initiating Process Planning Process Group Executing Process Monitoring & Controlling Closing
Groups / Group Group Process Group Process
Knowledge Group
Area Processes
Project Develop Project Charter Develop Project Management Direct and Manage Project Monitor and Control Project Work Close Project
Management Plan Execution Integrated Change Control
Integration
Project Scope Collect requirements Verify Scope
Management Define Scope Control Scope
Create WBS
Project Time Define Activity Schedule Control
Management Sequence Activity
Estimating Resource
Estimating Duration
Develop Schedule
Project Cost Estimating Cost Control Cost
Management Budgeting Cost
Project Quality Quality Planning Perform Quality Assurance Perform Quality Control
Management
Project HR Human Resources Planning Acquire Project Team
Management Develop Project Team
Manage Project Team
Project Identify Stakeholders Plan Communications Distribute Information Performance Reporting
Communications Manage stakeholders
Management expectations
Project Risk Plan Risk Management Risk Monitoring and Control
Management Risk Identification
Qualitative / Quantitative Risk
Analysis
y
Risk Response Planning
Project Plan procurement Conduct procurement Administer Contract Close
Procurement procurement
Management
3. Project Risk Management
Monitoring &
Controlling Processes
Planning
Processes
Enter phase/ Initiating Closing Exit phase/
Start project Processes Processes End project
Executing
Processes
Knowledge Process
Area Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Contol Closing
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risk
Risk Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Monitor and Control Risks
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Response
4. Project Risk Management
• Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has an effect on at least one project
objective.
• Risk
Ri k management objectives:
t bj ti
– increase the probability and impact of positive events (opportunities).
– decrease the probability and impact of negative events (threat).
• Terms & concepts:
– Uncertainty: a lack of knowledge about an event that reduces confidence
– Risk averse: someone who does not want to take risks.
– Risk tolerances: area of risk that are acceptable/unacceptable.
– Risk thresholds: the point at which a risk become unacceptable
• Remember that in this area there is no activity in executing process group
5. Project Risk Management
Risk factors
2. 3. 4.
1. The range of Expected The anticipated
The probability possible timing (when) frequency of
that it will occur outcome in the project risk event
(impact) life cycle (how often)
6. Plan Risk Management
• Importance of Risk Management Planning
– Ensure that the degree, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate
g , yp , y g
– Provide sufficient resource and time for risk management activities
– Establish an agreed-upon basis for evaluating risk
• Risk Categories
– A standard list of risk categories can help to make sure areas of risk are not forgotten.
– Companies and PMO should have standard list of risk categories to help identify riskrisk.
• 2 Main type of Risk
– B i
Business – Ri k of gain or lloss
Risk f i
– Pure (insurable) risk – Only a risk of loss (i.e. fire, theft, personal injury, etc)
• Sources of risk = risk categories
g
• Risk categories may be structured into Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
7. Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management
Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management
planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control
on a project.
The objectives of Project Risk Management are to increase the probability and
impact of positive events, and decrease the probability and impact of negative
events in the project.
8. Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management—The process of defi ning how to conduct risk
management activities for a project.
11.2 Identify Risks—The process of determining which risks may affect the project
and documenting their characteristics.
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis—The process of prioritizing risks for further
analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and
l b d b h b bl f d
impact.
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis—The process of numerically analyzing the
effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.
effect of identified risks on overall project objectives
11.5 Plan Risk Responses—The process of developing options and actions to
enhance opportunities
and to reduce threats to project objectives.
and to reduce threats to project objectives
11.6 Monitor and Control Risks—The process of implementing risk response
plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and
g p g p j
evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project.
9.
10. 11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
• Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct risk
management activities for a project.
• Careful and explicit planning enhances the probability of success for the
five other risk management processes.
• Planning risk management processes is important to ensure that the
degree, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with
both the risks and the importance of the project to the organization.
• g p p
Planning is also important to provide sufficient resources and time for risk
management activities, and to establish an agreed‐upon basis for
evaluating risks.
• The Plan Risk Management process should begin as a project is
conceived and should be completed early during project planning.
12. 11.1.1Plan Risk Management: Inputs
11.1.1Plan Risk Management: Inputs
.1 Project Scope Statement
• The project scope statement provides a clear sense of the range of
possibilities associated with the project and its deliverables and
establishes the framework for how significant the risk management effort
may ultimately become.
g
.2 Cost Management Plan
• The project cost management plan defines how risk budgets,
contingencies, and management reserves will be reported and accessed.
Described in Section 7.0.
.3 Schedule Management Plan
• The schedule management plan defines how schedule contingencies will
The schedule management plan defines how schedule contingencies will
be reported and assessed. Described in Section 6.0.
13. 11.1.1 Plan Risk Management: Inputs
11.1.1 Plan Risk Management: Inputs
.4 Communications Management Plan
• The project communications management plan defines the interactions
that will occur on the project, and determines who will be available to
share information on various risks and responses at different times (and
locations). Described in Section 10.2.3.1.
p
.5 Enterprise Environmental Factors
• The enterprise environmental factors that can influence the Plan Risk
Management process include, but are not limited to, risk attitudes and
tolerances that describe the degree of risk that an organization will
g g
withstand.
14. 11.1.1 Plan Risk Management: Inputs
11.1.1 Plan Risk Management: Inputs
.6 Organizational Process Assets
• The organizational process assets that can influence the Plan Risk
Management process include, but are not limited to:
• Risk categories,
g ,
• Common definitions of concepts and terms,
• Risk statement formats,
• Standard templates
Standard templates,
• Roles and responsibilities,
• Authority levels for decision‐making,
• Lessons learned, and
• Stakeholder registers, which are also critical assets to be reviewed as
components of establishing effective risk management plans.
15. 11.1.2 Plan Risk Management: Tools and Techniques
g q
.1 Planning Meetings and Analysis
• Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management
plan.
• Attendees at these meetings may include the project manager, selected
project team members and stakeholders, anyone in the organization with
responsibility to manage the risk planning and execution activities, and
p y g p g ,
others, as needed.
• High level plans for conducting the risk management activities are
High‐level plans for conducting the risk management activities are
defined in these meetings.
16. 11.1.2 Plan Risk Management: Tools and Techniques
g q
Planning Meetings and analysis: Holding of Risk Planning meetings
comprising of project team members, and stakeholders including
ii f j tt b d t k h ld i l di
sponsors to determine:
1. Risk management responsibilities
2. Risk categories
3. Risk levels
4. Probability by type of risks
4 Probability by type of risks
5. Impact by type of objectivities
6. Probability and impact matrix
7. Risk contingency reserve application approaches
8. Development of risk management cost elements and activities
17. 11.1.3 Risk Management: Outputs
11.1.3 Risk Management: Outputs
• Risk Management Plan includes:
1. Methodology ‐ Defining the approaches, tools, and data for defining risk
management
2. Role and responsibilities – Defining the lead, support and risk
p g , pp
management team members for each type of activities
3. Budgeting – Assigning resources, estimate funds needed for risk as part
of risk management for inclusion in the cost baseline
g
4. Timing ‐ Defines when and how often risk management process will be
performed during the project life cycle
5. Risk Categories – Using risk breakdown structure (RBS) which depicts
Risk Categories Using risk breakdown structure (RBS) which depicts
risks in hierarchical forms and the subcategories identifies the areas and
causes of potential risks
18. 11.1.3 Risk Management: Outputs
11.1.3 Risk Management: Outputs
6. Definition of risk probability and impact ‐ Defining different levels
of risk probabilities and their impacts
7. Probability and impact matrix – Combining risk probabilities with
their impacts and ranking them as High, Moderate and Low
8. Revised Stakeholders’ tolerances
9. Reporting format – Defining how the outcomes of risk
management processes will be documented
g p
10. Tracking – Defining how risk management processes will be
audited.
20. Definition of Impact Scales for four Project objectives
Defined Conditions for Impact of a Risk on Major Project Objectives
Defined Conditions for Impact of a Risk on Major Project Objectives
Relative or numerical scales are shown
Project Very low /0.05 Low / 0.1 Moderate / High / 0.4 Very High
objective 0.2 / 0.8
/ 0.8
Cost Insignificant cost <10% cost 10 – 20% 20‐40% cost >40% cost
increase increase cost increase increase
increase
Time Insignificant time <5% Time 5‐10% time 10‐20% time >20% time
increase increase increase increase increase
Scope Scope increase Scope Major areas Scope Project
barely noticeable minor of scope reduction end is
affect affected unacceptable effectively
useless
Quality degradation barely Affected only Quality reduction Quality reduction Project end
Quality noticeable very demanding requires sponsors unacceptable to items is
application approval sponsor effectively
useless
This table presents examples of risk impact definitions for four different project objectives. They should
be tailored in the risk management planning process to the individual project and to the organization’s
risk thresholds. Impact definitions can be developed for opportunities in a similar way.
26. 11.2 Identify Risks: Inputs
11.2 Identify Risks: Inputs
• Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project
y p g y p j
and documenting their characteristics.
• Participants in risk identification activities can include the following: project
manager, project team members, risk management team (if assigned), customers,
subject matter experts from outside the project team, end users, other project
managers, stakeholders, and risk management experts.
• While these personnel are often key participants for risk identification, all project
personnel should be encouraged to identify risks.
27. 11.2 Identify Risks: Inputs
11.2 Identify Risks: Inputs
• Identify Risks is an iterative process because new risks may evolve or become
y p y
known as the project progresses through its life cycle.
• The frequency of iteration and who participates in each cycle will vary by situation.
The format of the risk statements should be consistent to ensure the ability to
compare the relative effect of one risk event against others on the project.
• The process should involve the project team so they can develop and maintain a
sense of ownership and responsibility for the risks and associated risk response
actions. Stakeholders outside the project team may provide additional objective
information.
28. 11.2.1 Identify Risks: Inputs
11.2.1 Identify Risks: Inputs
1. Risk Management plan – Using RBS and providing for risks in budget and
schedule
2. Activity cost Estimates – Using quantitative assessment of TCPI and expressing it
as a range. The wider the more risks are involved
3. y
Activity Duration Estimates
4. Scope baseline
5. Stakeholder register
6. Cost Management Plan
7. Schedule Management Plan
8. Quality management Plan
9. Project Documents – Assumption Log, Work performance reports, Earned value
p , g ,
reports, Network diagrams, Baselines etc.
10. EEFS – Benchmarking, industry studies, published checklists, Risk attitudes
11. OPAs ‐ Project files, risk statement templates, Lesson learnt project process
control
29. 11.2.2 Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques
11.2.2 Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques
1. Documentation Reviews reviewing assumptions, requirements
Documentation Reviews – reviewing assumptions, requirements
contracts etc.
2. Information Gathering Techniques:
a) Brainstorming – Obtaining comprehensive listing of all risks by
Obtaining comprehensive listing of all risks by
categories using RBS
b) Delphi Technique – Using anonymous experts by using
questionnaires for getting consensus on risks. It keeps bias away
questionnaires for getting consensus on risks It keeps bias away
c) Interviewing – Asking subject matter specialists to identify risks
d) Root Cause Analysis – Identifying the risk problem, the underlying
causes that leads to it and developing preventive actions
causes that leads to it and developing preventive actions
30. 11.2.2 Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques
11.2.2 Identify Risks: Tools & Techniques
3. Checklist Analysis – Using the lowest level of RBS as checklist based
on historic information and knowledge of projects
4. Assumptions Analysis – Exploring the validity of assumptions,
accuracies, completeness, stability and consistency
5. Diagramming Techniques:
a) Causes and effects also known as ISHIKAWA – identifying risk
causes
b) System or process flow charts – identifying system interrelate and
mechanism of causation
c) Influence diagram graphical representation showing causal,
Influence diagram – graphical representation showing causal
influences, time ordering of events
6. SWOT Analysis – Strength–Weakness‐Opportunities‐Threats
7. Expert Judgment – Using experts such as consultants
31. 11.2.3 Identify Risks: Output
11.2.3 Identify Risks: Output
• Risk Register
Risk Register
1. List of Identified risks – The identified lists must be described
in details such as CAUSE, EVENT, EFFECTS
2. List of potential Responses – List of possible potential
i f i l i f ibl i l
responses and their impacts
33. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of
prioritizing risks for further analysis which involves
combining their probabilities of occurrence and
impacts, the time frame for response should the risk
occur and the organization’s risk tolerance associated
with the project constraints of cost, schedule, scope
ith th j t t i t f t h d l
and quality
34. 11.3.1 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.3.1 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis ‐ Inputs
1. Risk Register
g
2. Risk Management Plan – Detailing definitions of
categories, probability and impact, stakeholder risk
tolerance
l
3. Project Scope Statement – State‐of‐the‐art or first‐
of‐its‐kind technology and complex projects tend
of its kind technology and complex projects tend
to have more risks
4. Organization Process Assets – Risk information on
g
prior projects
35. 11.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis ‐ Tools and Techniques
y q
1. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment –
y p
investigates the likelihood of each risk occurring
and the assessment of the impacts on project
objectives such as on schedule, cost quality or
objectives such as on schedule cost quality or
performance by interviewing stakeholders
2. Probability and Impact Matrix ‐ Rating risks for
Probability and Impact Matrix Rating risks for
prioritizing as low, moderate or high
3. Risk Data Quality Assessment ‐ Examining the
degree of accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity
of gathered data regarding the risks
36. 11.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis ‐ Tools and Techniques
y q
4. Risk Categorization –Grouping risks by their
Risk Categorization Grouping risks by their
root causes
5. Risk Urgency Assessment ‐ Establishing
Risk Urgency Assessment Establishing
indicators as warning signals for risks that
should be addresses urgently based on risk
severity rating
6. Expert Judgment – Using consultants
internal and or external
38. 11.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis ‐ Outputs
y p
• Risk Register Updates
g p
1. Relative ranking or priority list of project risks
2. Risks grouped by categories
3. Causes of risk or project areas requiring particular
attention
4. List of risks requiring response in the near future
List of risks requiring response in the near future
5. List of risks for additional analysis and response
6. Watch lists of low‐priority risks
7. Trends in qualitative risk analysis results
39. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis This is the
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis This is the
process of analyzing numerically the effects of the
analyzed risks on the project objectives.
• The analysis could be for individual risks and or for
y
aggregate effect of all the risks that may affect the
project.
• It presents a quantitative approach for decision
making when risks are involved
42. 11.4.1 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Tools and
Techniques
T h i
1. Data Gathering & Representation Techniques
a) Interviewing – documenting risk range & assumptions the output of
interviewing
b) Probability Distribution – discrete and continuous distributions can
be used
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
a) Sensitivity Analysis ‐ e.g. tornado diagram use for comparing the
relative impacts of variables with high risks with those that are stable
l f bl hh h k h h h bl
b) Expected monetary value analysis – calculated by multiplying the
values of outcomes with their probabilities & adding the products e.g.
y
in decision tree analysis
C) Modeling and simulation – iterative simulation using Monte Carlo
techniques
3.
3 Expert Judgment – using experts with relevant experience
J d i ih l i
43. Example of range of Project cost estimates
collected during a risk interview
ll dd i i ki i
Low Most Likely High
WBS Elements
Design
$ 6m $8m $12m
Build
$18m $22m $37m
Test
$12m
$12 $17m
$17 $25m
$25
Total Project
cost
$36 $47m $74m
Interviewing stakeholders often helps to establish the three point estimates for the WBS
for both beta and triangular distributions. In this case the likelihood of completing the
project with only $47m is rather small as shown in the next Cost Risk simulation
44. Total Project Cost Cumulative Chart
Total Project Cost Cumulative Chart
100%
Mean $52.33m
75%
The Cumulative data in slide 23
shows that the project is 25%
Probability likely to meet the $47m estimate,
50% if there is a desire to meet 50% of
likelihood, a contingency will
have to be added which will be
25% calculated as (($52.33-
$47m)/$47m) = 11.3%
$47m
$20m $40m $64m $80m
$
$60m
Cost
37%
47. Decision Tree Diagram
Decision Definition Decision Node Chance Node Net Path value
Input: Scenario Probability Computed:
Input: Cost of each Decision
Decision to be made Output: Decision made
Reward if it occurs Payoffs minus
Output: Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Costs along Path
60% $80m
Strong Demand
($220m) $220m - $140m = $80m
Build New Plant
(Invest $140m)
40%
.60($80m) + .40(-$40) = $32m Weak Demand -$40m
EMV (B f
(Before C t ) of b ild
Costs) f build ($100m)
New Plant considering demand $100m - $140m = -$40m
Build or Upgrade
60%
Strong Demand $80m
($140m)
Decision EMV = $72m
i.e. the larger of $32m & Upgrade Plant $140m $60m $80
$140 - $60 = $80m
$72m (Invest $60m)
Decision Node 40%
.60($80m) + .40($20m) = $72m Weak Demand $20m
EMV (before build costs) of upgrade ($80M)
Chance Node
Plant considering demand $80m - $60m = $20m
Scenarios
End of Branch 1. Probability of strong demand is 60% and Probability of Weak demand is 40%
2. Build new plant will cost $140m while strong demand yields $220m and weak demand yields $100m
3. Upgrade Plant will yield $140m while weak demand will yield $80m
Decision made upgrade because its EMV is $72m while that of build new plant is $32m
49. 11.4.3 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis:
O t t
Outputs
1. Risk Register Updates includes
‐Probability Analysis of the project – li i
b bili l i f h j listing possible
ibl
completion dates and cost and their confident levels of
achieving and using contingency reserve to bring result to an
acceptable level
‐Probability of achieving cost and time objectives – Using
cumulative chart
‐Prioritized lists of quantified risks ‐ using tornado diagram to
identified most impacting risks and listing them
‐Trends in quantitative risk analysis results – using historical
reports of past risks trends on schedule cost , time and quality
50. 11.5 Plan Risk Response
11.5 Plan Risk Response
• Plan Risk Response : This is process of developing
p p p g
options and actions for opportunities and threats.
• It includes assigning one person as each risk owner
to take responsibility for each agreed to and funded
risk response, addressing the risks by priorities and
risk response addressing the risks by priorities and
putting more resources and activities into the
budget, schedule and cost of quality as approved in
the Project Management Plan.
53. 11.5.2 Plan Risk Response: Tools and Techniques
11.5.2 Plan Risk Response: Tools and Techniques
1. Strategies for Negative Risks
‐Avoid e.g. Reducing scope
Avoid e g Reducing scope
‐Transfer e.g. Insurance, Performance bond, Warranties, Fixed price transfer risk to
the seller, cost‐plus contracts transfer risk to the buyer
‐Mitigate e.g. choosing a more stable supplier, conducting more tests for early
detection
‐Accept e.g. providing a contingency reserve to take care of it if it occurs
2. Strategies for Positive Risks
‐Exploit e.g. Assigning most talented person to perform the tasks – reduces time to
p g g g p p
do the job
‐Share e.g. forming joint venture to share the benefits
‐Enhance e.g. Maximizing the key drivers that creates the opportunity
‐Accept e.g. Willingness to take advantage when the opportunity occurs but not
actively pursuing it
ti l i it
3. Contingency Response strategies e.g. identifying events that can trigger the
contingency response
4.
4 Expert Judgment e.g. Using Risk Experts with specialized education
Expert Judgment e g Using Risk Experts with specialized education
54. Strategies for Threats
• Avoid
– Eliminate the threat entirely
– Isolate project objectives from the risk’s impact
• Transfer (Deflect, Allocate)
(Deflect
– Shift some or all the negative impact of a threat to a third party
• Mitigate
– Implies a reduction in the probability and/or impact of an
adverse risk event to be within acceptable threshold limits
• Accept
– Deal with the risks
– Project management plan is not changed
55. Strategies for Opportunities
• Exploit
– Seek to ensure the opportunities definitely happen
• Share
– Allocate some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a
third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the
project benefit.
• Enhance
– Increase the probability and/or the positive impacts of an
opportunity.
t it
• Accept
– Not actively pursuing an opportunity
64. 11.6.2 Monitor and Control Risks: Tools and Techniques
q
1.
1 Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
2. Risk Audit
3.
3 Variance and Trend analysis
i d d l i
4. Technical Performance measurement
5. Reserve analysis
6.
6 Status meetings
Status meetings
66. For more information do not hesitate to
contact me.
Ahmad H. Maharma ‐ PMP®
• Ramallah, Palestine
• Phone: + (972) (2) 2968644
• Mobile: + (972) (599) 001155
E‐Mail: ahmad.maharma@gmail.com