This document provides an overview of shale development impacts on transportation and logistics. It discusses how shale development has increased demand for rail transportation of materials like frac sand, crude oil, and feedstocks. It also notes that while shale-related rail traffic has grown, it remains relatively small compared to existing coal volumes. The document summarizes trends in various shale-related commodities and outlines questions around the future of industries like frac sand and crude by rail.
PLG REFC presentation "Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts"PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development impacts on transportation and logistics. Key points include:
- Shale development has increased demand for rail transportation of frac sand, crude oil, and other products over the last decade.
- Frac sand and crude oil by rail volumes have grown significantly since 2010 but remain smaller than coal volumes transported by rail.
- Low natural gas prices are driving growth in gas-intensive industries like steel, fertilizer, and methanol production in the US.
- Abundant and low-cost natural gas and natural gas liquids from shale are enhancing competitiveness of US manufacturing industries over the long term.
Robinson presents shale gas implactions for US manufacturing renaissancePLG Consulting
PLG President Taylor Robinson presents "Shale Gas Implications For US Manufacturing Renaissance" at Reinvesting in American Manufacturing conference in Houston, TX.
PLG Consulting’s CEO, Graham Brisben presented his presentation Shale Developments: The Evolving Transportation Impacts to the Broe Group on June 23, 2014.
Goldman sachs industrial conference nov 12, 2014 t robinsonPLG Consulting
Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting gave a presentation on how shale gas will drive a US manufacturing revolution. The presentation discussed:
1) How technological advances like fracking and horizontal drilling have unlocked vast shale gas resources in North America, leading to an energy revolution with lower domestic energy costs.
2) How the abundance of shale gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane provide a competitive advantage for US chemical and manufacturing industries that use gas and NGLs as feedstocks or fuel.
3) That the US now has a substantial material cost advantage compared to other regions due to low gas prices, which could enable traditional manufacturing to return to North America as material costs typically represent 60-70% of
The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas: Crude Oil is Only the BeginningPLG Consulting
On June 3, 2013, Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant at PLG Consulting presented at the American Railway Development Association’s 107th Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA. Gordon’s presentation, entitled “The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas. Crude Oil is Only the Beginning,” analyzes and forecasts the dramatic impact of shale oil and gas which has upended traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry, starting an industrial renaissance in the US.
This document summarizes a conference call hosted by Stifel Capital Markets on December 9, 2013. The call featured two presentations on topics related to the shale gas and oil industries in the United States: 1) The implications of shale gas for the resurgence of US manufacturing, presented by Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting. 2) An analysis of the growth of crude oil transport by rail, or "crude by rail", presented by Graham Brisben also of PLG Consulting. The document provides background on PLG Consulting and outlines the agenda and dial-in details for the conference call.
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a boutique consulting firm focused on logistics, engineering, and supply chain services for the energy and bulk commodities industries. It discusses PLG's experience in crude by rail projects, including optimization, commercial negotiations, infrastructure design and engineering. The document also summarizes trends in North American energy production driven by shale oil and gas, and the resulting impacts on crude transportation and infrastructure needs. It includes forecasts for growth in crude by rail volumes from the Bakken and Western Canada through 2019 under a low oil price scenario.
The document provides an overview of coal-to-liquids (CTL) technologies and developments globally. It discusses the status of CTL projects in major coal producing countries like China, South Africa, and the US. Several large-scale CTL plants are under construction or in planning stages in China. Projects in the US and South Africa face delays due to the economic downturn and environmental regulations around carbon capture. New CTL technologies aim to increase efficiency and reduce emissions but are not expected to be commercialized before 2020.
PLG REFC presentation "Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts"PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development impacts on transportation and logistics. Key points include:
- Shale development has increased demand for rail transportation of frac sand, crude oil, and other products over the last decade.
- Frac sand and crude oil by rail volumes have grown significantly since 2010 but remain smaller than coal volumes transported by rail.
- Low natural gas prices are driving growth in gas-intensive industries like steel, fertilizer, and methanol production in the US.
- Abundant and low-cost natural gas and natural gas liquids from shale are enhancing competitiveness of US manufacturing industries over the long term.
Robinson presents shale gas implactions for US manufacturing renaissancePLG Consulting
PLG President Taylor Robinson presents "Shale Gas Implications For US Manufacturing Renaissance" at Reinvesting in American Manufacturing conference in Houston, TX.
PLG Consulting’s CEO, Graham Brisben presented his presentation Shale Developments: The Evolving Transportation Impacts to the Broe Group on June 23, 2014.
Goldman sachs industrial conference nov 12, 2014 t robinsonPLG Consulting
Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting gave a presentation on how shale gas will drive a US manufacturing revolution. The presentation discussed:
1) How technological advances like fracking and horizontal drilling have unlocked vast shale gas resources in North America, leading to an energy revolution with lower domestic energy costs.
2) How the abundance of shale gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane provide a competitive advantage for US chemical and manufacturing industries that use gas and NGLs as feedstocks or fuel.
3) That the US now has a substantial material cost advantage compared to other regions due to low gas prices, which could enable traditional manufacturing to return to North America as material costs typically represent 60-70% of
The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas: Crude Oil is Only the BeginningPLG Consulting
On June 3, 2013, Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant at PLG Consulting presented at the American Railway Development Association’s 107th Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA. Gordon’s presentation, entitled “The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas. Crude Oil is Only the Beginning,” analyzes and forecasts the dramatic impact of shale oil and gas which has upended traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry, starting an industrial renaissance in the US.
This document summarizes a conference call hosted by Stifel Capital Markets on December 9, 2013. The call featured two presentations on topics related to the shale gas and oil industries in the United States: 1) The implications of shale gas for the resurgence of US manufacturing, presented by Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting. 2) An analysis of the growth of crude oil transport by rail, or "crude by rail", presented by Graham Brisben also of PLG Consulting. The document provides background on PLG Consulting and outlines the agenda and dial-in details for the conference call.
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a boutique consulting firm focused on logistics, engineering, and supply chain services for the energy and bulk commodities industries. It discusses PLG's experience in crude by rail projects, including optimization, commercial negotiations, infrastructure design and engineering. The document also summarizes trends in North American energy production driven by shale oil and gas, and the resulting impacts on crude transportation and infrastructure needs. It includes forecasts for growth in crude by rail volumes from the Bakken and Western Canada through 2019 under a low oil price scenario.
The document provides an overview of coal-to-liquids (CTL) technologies and developments globally. It discusses the status of CTL projects in major coal producing countries like China, South Africa, and the US. Several large-scale CTL plants are under construction or in planning stages in China. Projects in the US and South Africa face delays due to the economic downturn and environmental regulations around carbon capture. New CTL technologies aim to increase efficiency and reduce emissions but are not expected to be commercialized before 2020.
The document discusses trends in the US natural gas market, including:
- US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports.
- Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and coal plant retirements.
- Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports are expected to grow as US production increases and prices remain low relative to global markets, making the US a net exporter of natural gas.
The US Coal Crash – Evidence for Structural Change (PDF) finds that, in the last few years, US coal markets have been pounded by a combination of cheaper renewables, energy efficiency measures, increasing construction costs and a rash of legal challenges, as well as the rise of shale gas.
GAO Report 14-667 on Need for Possible Federal Regulation of Small Natural Ga...Marcellus Drilling News
A report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office titled "OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION: Department of Transportation Is Taking Actions to Address Rail Safety, but Additional Actions Are Needed to Improve Pipeline Safety." The report recommends the federal government get involved with regulating smaller gathering pipelines used to connect natural gas and oil wells to larger pipelines. Those lines are now either not regulated, or regulated by the individual states.
1. The document summarizes an analysis of oil markets and how they could be affected by the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. It examines issues like oil transportation infrastructure, updated modeling of various scenarios, and conclusions about potential impacts on oil sands production.
2. Recent developments since previous analyses in 2011 and 2013 include increased use of rail to transport Canadian crude oil, investments in rail infrastructure, and incorporation of higher US oil production into the models.
3. Modeling of 16 scenarios found that pipeline constraints have limited impact on oil flows and prices. Increased Canadian exports to Asia by potential new pipelines to coasts could offset constrained pipelines to the US. Constraints are not expected to significantly affect US consumer fuel prices or heavy
China new coal chemical industry report, 2011ResearchInChina
The document analyzes China's new coal chemical industry, focusing on coal-to-olefins, coal-to-gas, coal-to-glycol, and coal-to-oil industries. It discusses China's plans to develop these industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan period to reduce dependence on oil imports. Several large companies have projects underway in these areas. National policies aim to promote these industries, though some segments face technical challenges or risk overcapacity issues.
The Coal Power Decommissioning Market 2013-2023Visiongain
For more information on this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44(0) 2075499976) or refer to our website http://www.visiongain.com/Report/1087/The-Coal-Power-Decommissioning-Market-2013-2023
Building An Earnings Accretive Energy CompanyKW Miller
The document discusses the natural gas market and production in the United States. It notes that natural gas prices are currently below $4/mmbtu but argues they will rise significantly due to new environmental taxes on fracking, deficiencies in gas distribution infrastructure, and the unknown production decline curve for shale gas wells. It also argues that if gas-fired power plants and other gas consumers increased usage, it would strain the distribution system and diminish any claims of excess gas supply. The document advocates for investment in natural gas infrastructure and production companies.
This document summarizes a research project on global gas security and governance led by Professor Mike Bradshaw of Warwick Business School. The project uses a supply chain approach to analyze gas security across upstream, midstream, and downstream areas. It also examines implications for the UK, which has become increasingly reliant on gas imports in recent decades. Key topics discussed include the UK's growing import dependence, the globalization of its gas security, and applying the supply chain framework to better understand challenges to UK gas security.
Uncertainty is Clouding the Energy Trading OutlookCTRM Center
As the United States continues to rapidly grow its production of oil and gas from shale, and Canada increases production from its oil-rich tar sands, these new volumes are helping to support world oil markets as crude production outside the US declines due to increasing conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Should these conflicts widen, the global markets will be increasingly volatile as supply disruptions outpace the growth in North American production.
Though US natural gas production has not yet impacted the global market space via LNG exports, there is no doubt that those exports will happen. While the impact on US prices is unclear at this time, these exports will be yet another variable with which to content in a US market already unsettled by increasing regulations that will, by design, reshape the US energy mix.
Dealing with this uncertainty will require increasing market vigilance, with a constant view on both the near and longterm energy outlook, and supported by a commodity trading and risk management solution that facilitates analytics, market visibility and regulatory compliance, such as Eka Energy.
By Adam Millard-Ball, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER), Stanford University; and Lee Schipper, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University. Paper submitted to 2010 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. Revised November 2009.
By Lee Schipper UCTC, University of California Berkeley 2641 Dwight Way, Berkeley CA 94720 (202) 262-7476 (510) 642 6889 schipper@wri.org. Submission date: Nov.15, 2007.
This document provides an overview and analysis of coal trends in India in 2015, including domestic coal production and demand as well as imported coal. It examines supply and demand dynamics for both coking and non-coking coal between 2015-2022. The document also discusses the cost dynamics of domestic coal mining, logistics of transporting domestic coal, and the role of coal washing. Additionally, it tracks major imported coal sources for India and analyzes prices and deals in the international coal market. The accompanying database provides details on over 700 operational and upcoming domestic and imported coal mines and assets in India.
Upcoming Round 1.5. “Unconventionals”. Part I: Exploring contract terms and f...Juan Diego Suarez Fromm
Shale gas potential in Mexico has been identified by government, Mexican National Oil Company - PEMEX, and international petroleum industry, as a great opportunity for resources development in order to solve increasing natural gas demand.
Large gas pipeline extension and power generation projects have been launched and others are on the way according to National Infrastructure Program. In the mid-term U.S. gas exports are expected to continuously rise, which for some political parties is a threat to Mexican energy independence.
The upcoming Round One bids for onshore fields will comprise Unconventional resources including Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Chicontepec. The aim of this study is to evaluate Shale Gas development profitability for different gas prices, costs and royalties and more important to develop fiscal and contract incentives alternatives based on geological trends, current well construction technologies, technical risks and market risk.
pwc-chemicals-transportation-challenges-studyMatt Wilson
The document summarizes key findings from a report by PwC on the anticipated growth of the US chemical manufacturing industry and associated transportation challenges. It finds that low natural gas prices are driving significant new chemical plant investments that will increase US chemical production capacity by 18% by 2020. However, this growth poses logistical challenges as the transportation infrastructure may not be able to accommodate the increased demand. Specifically, the chemical industry relies heavily on truck and rail transportation and already experiences congestion-related delays. If not addressed, infrastructure issues could significantly increase costs for the chemical industry due to excess inventories, capital expenditures, and higher operating costs over the next decade. Cooperation will be needed across the industry and with policymakers to ensure the chemical
Slides used at the launch of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) new edition of the Medium-Term Gas Market Report (MTGMR), for 2013. The launch event was held at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia on June 20, 2013.
Coal pricing(Domestic and International)Rahul Sharma
The document discusses the history and process of coal pricing in India. It begins by explaining that coal pricing was historically controlled by the central government but has gradually been deregulated over time. It then outlines the multi-step process that is currently used to determine coal prices, which involves calculating weighted average costs, adding other cost elements, distributing the average price among coal grades, and applying normative corrections. The summary also notes that coal prices are now set by coal companies like Coal India in consultation with the coal ministry and includes periodic escalations.
[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.3 (2017.6)
On the Cover
Will the Shipbuilding Industry Flourish Again?
The shipbuilding industry will be recovered in the long term backed by global economic growth and highly influenced by environmental issues and technological advances. Under strict environmental regulations, demand for eco-friendly ships will rise. Ships will be required to use low-sulfur fuel oil. A wide range of technologies will bring about differentiated and innovative types of ships. Under the influence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, remotely controlled or fully autonomous ships will become available in the future. Emerging technology will not only change ships, but also shipyards and the shipping and port industries. The changing steel industry will result in qualitative changes of steel products. As vessels become larger and lighter, the steel intensity of ship’s tonnage will fall continuously, and then decline even further following the rise of electric propulsion, unmanned, and autonomous ships.
Gas Arabia Summit: Unconventional Gas Developments in the GulfEnergy Intelligence
Rana Samaha, Middle East R&A Director at Energy Intelligence, presented at the 10th Gas Arabia Summit, Dubai, January 13, 2015.
These slides include content on:
1.) US Shale gas developments: Key success factors
2.) GCC gas imbalances; role of unconventional gas developments
3.) GCC NOC's different approaches; Saudi Aramco's mandate
Natural Gas Supply Outlookfrom The Business Research Company deals with the supply chain for natural gas, from the production stage, through processing and transportation, to distribution and consumption by industrial and retail customers.
Rare earths are making a rabble-rousing comeback and Commerce Resources Corp....Stephan Bogner
Most recently, U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to building an EV (“Electric Vehicle“) supply chain between both countries. “The move comes as demand for electrified transportation is set to surge over the next decade“, Reuters noted and added that “Washington is increasingly viewing Canada as a kind of ´51st State´ for mineral supply purposes and plans to deepen financial and logistical partnerships with the country’s mining sector over time, according to a U.S. government source“. In light of China still dominating the rare earth elements (“REEs“) supply chains and a supply gap emerging over the next few years, new REE projects are needed to meet future demand.
Rail summit gb presentation vgb final 060614PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development and its impacts on transportation. It discusses the resources and technologies enabling the North American energy revolution, including shale gas and tight oil plays. It also outlines trends in shale gas and tight oil production, processing, and transportation, including the increased use of rail and pipelines. The document summarizes how shale development is reshaping North American energy trade patterns and industrial development.
This document provides an overview of the North American energy revolution driven by shale oil and gas resources. It discusses the abundant recoverable unconventional energy resources including shale plays and oil sands. New technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked these resources and driven down costs. This has led to a surge in production, displaced imports, and growing exports. It also discusses the infrastructure challenges of moving these new sources of supply and the impacts on downstream industries.
The document discusses trends in the US natural gas market, including:
- US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports.
- Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and coal plant retirements.
- Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports are expected to grow as US production increases and prices remain low relative to global markets, making the US a net exporter of natural gas.
The US Coal Crash – Evidence for Structural Change (PDF) finds that, in the last few years, US coal markets have been pounded by a combination of cheaper renewables, energy efficiency measures, increasing construction costs and a rash of legal challenges, as well as the rise of shale gas.
GAO Report 14-667 on Need for Possible Federal Regulation of Small Natural Ga...Marcellus Drilling News
A report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office titled "OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION: Department of Transportation Is Taking Actions to Address Rail Safety, but Additional Actions Are Needed to Improve Pipeline Safety." The report recommends the federal government get involved with regulating smaller gathering pipelines used to connect natural gas and oil wells to larger pipelines. Those lines are now either not regulated, or regulated by the individual states.
1. The document summarizes an analysis of oil markets and how they could be affected by the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. It examines issues like oil transportation infrastructure, updated modeling of various scenarios, and conclusions about potential impacts on oil sands production.
2. Recent developments since previous analyses in 2011 and 2013 include increased use of rail to transport Canadian crude oil, investments in rail infrastructure, and incorporation of higher US oil production into the models.
3. Modeling of 16 scenarios found that pipeline constraints have limited impact on oil flows and prices. Increased Canadian exports to Asia by potential new pipelines to coasts could offset constrained pipelines to the US. Constraints are not expected to significantly affect US consumer fuel prices or heavy
China new coal chemical industry report, 2011ResearchInChina
The document analyzes China's new coal chemical industry, focusing on coal-to-olefins, coal-to-gas, coal-to-glycol, and coal-to-oil industries. It discusses China's plans to develop these industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan period to reduce dependence on oil imports. Several large companies have projects underway in these areas. National policies aim to promote these industries, though some segments face technical challenges or risk overcapacity issues.
The Coal Power Decommissioning Market 2013-2023Visiongain
For more information on this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44(0) 2075499976) or refer to our website http://www.visiongain.com/Report/1087/The-Coal-Power-Decommissioning-Market-2013-2023
Building An Earnings Accretive Energy CompanyKW Miller
The document discusses the natural gas market and production in the United States. It notes that natural gas prices are currently below $4/mmbtu but argues they will rise significantly due to new environmental taxes on fracking, deficiencies in gas distribution infrastructure, and the unknown production decline curve for shale gas wells. It also argues that if gas-fired power plants and other gas consumers increased usage, it would strain the distribution system and diminish any claims of excess gas supply. The document advocates for investment in natural gas infrastructure and production companies.
This document summarizes a research project on global gas security and governance led by Professor Mike Bradshaw of Warwick Business School. The project uses a supply chain approach to analyze gas security across upstream, midstream, and downstream areas. It also examines implications for the UK, which has become increasingly reliant on gas imports in recent decades. Key topics discussed include the UK's growing import dependence, the globalization of its gas security, and applying the supply chain framework to better understand challenges to UK gas security.
Uncertainty is Clouding the Energy Trading OutlookCTRM Center
As the United States continues to rapidly grow its production of oil and gas from shale, and Canada increases production from its oil-rich tar sands, these new volumes are helping to support world oil markets as crude production outside the US declines due to increasing conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Should these conflicts widen, the global markets will be increasingly volatile as supply disruptions outpace the growth in North American production.
Though US natural gas production has not yet impacted the global market space via LNG exports, there is no doubt that those exports will happen. While the impact on US prices is unclear at this time, these exports will be yet another variable with which to content in a US market already unsettled by increasing regulations that will, by design, reshape the US energy mix.
Dealing with this uncertainty will require increasing market vigilance, with a constant view on both the near and longterm energy outlook, and supported by a commodity trading and risk management solution that facilitates analytics, market visibility and regulatory compliance, such as Eka Energy.
By Adam Millard-Ball, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER), Stanford University; and Lee Schipper, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University. Paper submitted to 2010 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. Revised November 2009.
By Lee Schipper UCTC, University of California Berkeley 2641 Dwight Way, Berkeley CA 94720 (202) 262-7476 (510) 642 6889 schipper@wri.org. Submission date: Nov.15, 2007.
This document provides an overview and analysis of coal trends in India in 2015, including domestic coal production and demand as well as imported coal. It examines supply and demand dynamics for both coking and non-coking coal between 2015-2022. The document also discusses the cost dynamics of domestic coal mining, logistics of transporting domestic coal, and the role of coal washing. Additionally, it tracks major imported coal sources for India and analyzes prices and deals in the international coal market. The accompanying database provides details on over 700 operational and upcoming domestic and imported coal mines and assets in India.
Upcoming Round 1.5. “Unconventionals”. Part I: Exploring contract terms and f...Juan Diego Suarez Fromm
Shale gas potential in Mexico has been identified by government, Mexican National Oil Company - PEMEX, and international petroleum industry, as a great opportunity for resources development in order to solve increasing natural gas demand.
Large gas pipeline extension and power generation projects have been launched and others are on the way according to National Infrastructure Program. In the mid-term U.S. gas exports are expected to continuously rise, which for some political parties is a threat to Mexican energy independence.
The upcoming Round One bids for onshore fields will comprise Unconventional resources including Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Chicontepec. The aim of this study is to evaluate Shale Gas development profitability for different gas prices, costs and royalties and more important to develop fiscal and contract incentives alternatives based on geological trends, current well construction technologies, technical risks and market risk.
pwc-chemicals-transportation-challenges-studyMatt Wilson
The document summarizes key findings from a report by PwC on the anticipated growth of the US chemical manufacturing industry and associated transportation challenges. It finds that low natural gas prices are driving significant new chemical plant investments that will increase US chemical production capacity by 18% by 2020. However, this growth poses logistical challenges as the transportation infrastructure may not be able to accommodate the increased demand. Specifically, the chemical industry relies heavily on truck and rail transportation and already experiences congestion-related delays. If not addressed, infrastructure issues could significantly increase costs for the chemical industry due to excess inventories, capital expenditures, and higher operating costs over the next decade. Cooperation will be needed across the industry and with policymakers to ensure the chemical
Slides used at the launch of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) new edition of the Medium-Term Gas Market Report (MTGMR), for 2013. The launch event was held at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia on June 20, 2013.
Coal pricing(Domestic and International)Rahul Sharma
The document discusses the history and process of coal pricing in India. It begins by explaining that coal pricing was historically controlled by the central government but has gradually been deregulated over time. It then outlines the multi-step process that is currently used to determine coal prices, which involves calculating weighted average costs, adding other cost elements, distributing the average price among coal grades, and applying normative corrections. The summary also notes that coal prices are now set by coal companies like Coal India in consultation with the coal ministry and includes periodic escalations.
[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.3 (2017.6)
On the Cover
Will the Shipbuilding Industry Flourish Again?
The shipbuilding industry will be recovered in the long term backed by global economic growth and highly influenced by environmental issues and technological advances. Under strict environmental regulations, demand for eco-friendly ships will rise. Ships will be required to use low-sulfur fuel oil. A wide range of technologies will bring about differentiated and innovative types of ships. Under the influence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, remotely controlled or fully autonomous ships will become available in the future. Emerging technology will not only change ships, but also shipyards and the shipping and port industries. The changing steel industry will result in qualitative changes of steel products. As vessels become larger and lighter, the steel intensity of ship’s tonnage will fall continuously, and then decline even further following the rise of electric propulsion, unmanned, and autonomous ships.
Gas Arabia Summit: Unconventional Gas Developments in the GulfEnergy Intelligence
Rana Samaha, Middle East R&A Director at Energy Intelligence, presented at the 10th Gas Arabia Summit, Dubai, January 13, 2015.
These slides include content on:
1.) US Shale gas developments: Key success factors
2.) GCC gas imbalances; role of unconventional gas developments
3.) GCC NOC's different approaches; Saudi Aramco's mandate
Natural Gas Supply Outlookfrom The Business Research Company deals with the supply chain for natural gas, from the production stage, through processing and transportation, to distribution and consumption by industrial and retail customers.
Rare earths are making a rabble-rousing comeback and Commerce Resources Corp....Stephan Bogner
Most recently, U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to building an EV (“Electric Vehicle“) supply chain between both countries. “The move comes as demand for electrified transportation is set to surge over the next decade“, Reuters noted and added that “Washington is increasingly viewing Canada as a kind of ´51st State´ for mineral supply purposes and plans to deepen financial and logistical partnerships with the country’s mining sector over time, according to a U.S. government source“. In light of China still dominating the rare earth elements (“REEs“) supply chains and a supply gap emerging over the next few years, new REE projects are needed to meet future demand.
Rail summit gb presentation vgb final 060614PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development and its impacts on transportation. It discusses the resources and technologies enabling the North American energy revolution, including shale gas and tight oil plays. It also outlines trends in shale gas and tight oil production, processing, and transportation, including the increased use of rail and pipelines. The document summarizes how shale development is reshaping North American energy trade patterns and industrial development.
This document provides an overview of the North American energy revolution driven by shale oil and gas resources. It discusses the abundant recoverable unconventional energy resources including shale plays and oil sands. New technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked these resources and driven down costs. This has led to a surge in production, displaced imports, and growing exports. It also discusses the infrastructure challenges of moving these new sources of supply and the impacts on downstream industries.
PLG MARS Presentation Energy Logistics 070913PLG Consulting
This document discusses the impacts of increased shale oil and gas development on freight transportation and logistics. Key points include:
1) Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have driven large increases in U.S. oil and natural gas production from shale plays. This has disrupted traditional supply chains and driven growth in related industries like petrochemicals and steel manufacturing.
2) Shale development requires large volumes of frac sand, water, and other inputs to be transported to well sites by rail and truck. It also produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that must be moved out of plays through pipelines, rail, and trucks.
3) Abundant natural gas supplies are displacing coal
PLG Presents to Midwest Association of Rail ShippersPLG Consulting
On July 9, 2013, CEO Graham Brisben presented PLG’s perspective of the shifting economy by examining the impact of crude by rail in today’s marketplace. More specifically, Graham discussed the impact of shale oil and gas which is upending traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry which has started an industrial renaissance in the U.S.
PLG Provides Industry Update to Stifel Nicolaus InvestorsPLG Consulting
On May 24, 2013, PLG CEO Graham Brisben and President Taylor Robinson presented to industry investors and analysts via teleconference sponsored by Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets. Graham’s presentation was entitled “Crude by Rail Update.” Taylor’s presentation was entitled “Shale Gas – Driver of Reshoring.” The presentations addressed the current crude-by-rail market in the US, as well as industry trends leading to a renewed reshoring focus for US manufacturers.
The document summarizes the implications of the North American energy revolution for rail transportation. It discusses how new extraction technologies have led to surging domestic production of oil, gas and NGLs, displacing many imports. This has led to growth in crude-by-rail as production outpaced pipeline capacity, especially for Bakken crude moving to refineries. It forecasts crude-by-rail volumes remaining stable as pipelines are built out slowly, and prices expected to rebound after a challenging 2015 enables continued production growth and frac sand/crude-by-rail demand.
PLG Headlines General Session at NAFTANEXT Conference
PLG Consulting’s CEO, Graham Brisben, and President, Taylor Robinson, delivered the General Session presentation entitled New Energy: The Game-Changer in North America on Thursday, April 24 at the 2014 NAFTANEXT Conference.
Held in Chicago, IL, NAFTANEXT is a tri-national summit focused on the future of North American supply chains. The agenda of this annual event touches on environmental, energy, safety, and profitability issues in the freight industry.
PLG president, Taylor Robinson, spoke at the 96th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board in Washington D.C. on January 8th, 2017. Mr. Robinson’s presentation featured an overview of the North American energy market including analysis of the impact of shale NGLs on the downstream, and the outlook for U.S. energy/petchem surface transportation over the next five years.
This document discusses crude-by-rail (CBR) transportation in North America. It provides background on the growth of unconventional oil and gas production from shale plays and oil sands. Technological improvements have increased productivity and lowered costs. This has driven growth in CBR to transport crude oil from production areas to refineries. The document outlines the historical phases of CBR and factors that will influence its future, such as rail capacity, regulations, and price differentials. It also summarizes projections for continued growth in CBR origins from the Bakken and Western Canada due to inadequate pipeline capacity in the short to medium term.
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a logistics and supply chain consulting firm, and discusses how shale gas development is driving a manufacturing revolution in the United States. It notes that technological advances have unlocked previously inaccessible shale gas resources, lowering energy costs and providing abundant feedstocks. This low-cost shale gas and natural gas liquids are attracting manufacturing industries back to the US and driving expansion of existing chemical and industrial facilities. The document outlines impacts along the natural gas supply chain from production through processing, transportation and end use.
This document discusses the impact of unconventional energy resources like shale oil and gas and oil sands on rail transportation in North America. It notes that technological advances have enabled increased production from these resources, driving growth in related rail shipments of materials like frac sand and crude oil. However, pipeline capacity constraints currently necessitate significant crude by rail shipments, especially of Canadian oil. The document also examines proposed regulations on rail shipments of crude oil and their potential effects. Overall rail traffic of frac sand and crude oil has grown rapidly but further growth depends on regulatory and infrastructure developments.
This document provides an overview of energy production, transportation, and consumption. It discusses topics like fracking, the Keystone XL pipeline, coal and natural gas production, and unconventional oil and gas resources. It also summarizes changes in North American energy infrastructure and flows to accommodate increasing domestic production.
MARS Meeting Summer 2015-North American Energy Revolution-Implications for RailPLG Consulting
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2. 2
Boutique consulting firm with team members
throughout North America
Established in 2001
Over 90 clients and 250 engagements
Significant shale development practice since 2010
Practice Areas
Logistics
Engineering
Supply Chain
Consulting services
Strategy & optimization
Assessments & best practice benchmarking
Logistics assets & infrastructure development
Supply Chain design & operations
Hazmat training, auditing & risk assessment
M&A/investments/private equity
Industry verticals
Energy
Bulk commodities
Manufactured goods
Private Equity
About PLG Consulting
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Partial Client List
3. 3
Shale Supply Chain and Downstream Impacts
Feedstock (Ethane)
Byproduct
(Condensate)
Home Heating
(Propane)
Other Fuels
Other Fuels
Gasoline
Gas
NGLs
Crude
Proppants
OCTG
Chemicals
Water
Cement
Generation
Process Feedstocks
All Manufacturing
Steel
Fertilizer (Ammonia)
Methanol
Chemicals
Petroleum Products
Petro-chemicals
Inputs Wellhead
Direct
Output
Thermal Fuels Raw Materials
Downstream
Products
DEMAND ON RAIL CARS
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
2010 onward 2016 onward
4. 4
Frac sand: Resurgent growth?
-
Denouement of coal?
-
Is “reshoring” real?
-
Crude by rail:
Is it safe?
Here to stay?
Burning Questions
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
5. 5
Correlation of Operating Rig Count with Sand and Crude Shipments
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Source: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, February 2014
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 Avg. 2008 Avg. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OperatingOnshoreRigs
Carloads
Operating On Shore Rigs
All Sand Carloads
Petroleum Carloads
* Q4 2014 UP carloads estimated
*
*
6. 6
U.S. Frac Sand IndustryTrends
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Sand
33%
Rail - Freight, FSC
and Eqp Lease
42%
Destination
Transload &
Trucking
25%
Total Delivered Cost perTon ~ $122
Source: PLG analysis using BNSF public pricing –
does not include fixed assets at origin or
destination, December 2013
Logistics costs drive
~ 67% of total
delivered sand cost
• Rapid growth and maturation of both industries
(hydraulic fracturing and sand production) over the
past 5 years
• Ownership shifting supply chain responsibilities –
reduced tasks by end customer
• Sand supply base growing and consolidating at
the same time
• Mines continue to open; supply base is consolidating
• Large fluctuations in price of sand based on
supply/demand balance
• Unit train shipping is the game-changing logistics
development – spurring investment in larger load-
out sand transload facilities
• “Benchmark” high-efficiency unit train example –
Illinois to South Texas
• Single-line haul (one rail carrier), private railcars achieving two
round trips per month, origin sand facility has direct rail load-out
and destination trucking is less than 100 miles
7. 7
Sand Railcar Market Conditions
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Small Covered Hoppers
Current market described as “high demand,” “red hot”
by leasing companies
Increased frac sand per well demand, surging liquids
production
Additional sand sources opening in Wisconsin
New orders from cement shippers
Best availability is May/June 2014 (limited)
Most likely availability is August-October 2014
Typical full service lease rates $535 - $575
5-7 year leases
Less than 75,000 mileage caps
Frac sand shippers/receivers will continue to move
towards more efficient methods of rail transportation
Manifest shipments require 2X the number of railcars
vs. unit trains due to increased cycle times
Use of manifest service usually encourages use of railcar
as storage at destination, further increasing fleet
requirements
Cement consumption is expected to grow by 6.4% in
2014 and 6.2% in 2015, encouraging railcar orders
Proppant Consumed byVolume
Freedonia Group Analysis 8/13
8. 8
Natural gas now supplying 27% of U.S.
Electricity Generation
US coal electricity generation share capture has
dropped 10% from 2006
Adversely affecting coal industry,
railroad coal loadings
2013 coal production hit 20 year low (less than
1B s/t)
Export opportunities diminishing due to weak
demand in Europe, declining demand and
competition in Asia
Despite recent increases in prices,
natural gas share capture expected to
maintain or grow
Environmental regulations of coal burning
Scheduled coal unit retirements; 55GW
through 2020
Natural Gas Displacement of Coal forThermal Generation
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: EIA, February 2014
9. 9
Shale Related RailTraffic Still Small Relative to CoalVolumes
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sand Crude Coal
Carloads
Quarterly Data
Sand
Crude
Coal
Railcars Handled: Sand, Crude, & Coal
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, February 2014
* Q4 2014 UP carloads estimated
* *
*
11. 11
Natural gas has recently been ~5X cheaper
than oil on a BTU-basis
Innovation will convert more transportation fuels and
other energy requirements to natural gas
US electricity prices are the lowest in the
industrial world
US industries now have substantial power cost
advantage
Electricity costs 2x higher in China, 8x higher in Europe
US gas downstream products will have world
class competitiveness - are the “building
blocks of manufacturing”
Chemicals
Resins
Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel
compared to other hydrocarbons (coal, oil)
Shale Gas Is More Important to US Industry CompetitivenessThan Oil
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
WTI & Henry Hub Natural Gas Energy Equivalent Pricing
Source: EIA, February 2014
~5X
Source: International Energy Agency, October 2013 *estimate
12. 12
US Ethane has significant structural cost
advantage vs. Europe and Asia
Europe andAsia petrochemical plants utilize oil-based
Naphtha as their feedstock
Domestic ethane supplies to quadruple by 2025
Prices at historic lows
NGLs (especially ethane) are basic building
blocks in chemical supply chain
Low Cost NGLsWill Give US LongTerm Material Cost Advantages
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: Townsend Solutions, December 2013
Source: IHS Chemical, September 2013
Source: American Chemicals Council, February 2014
13. 13
Shale Gas Driving Steel, Methanol, & Fertilizer Manufacturing in US
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Shale gas boom makes direct-reduced iron steel
economical
DRI process uses natural gas in place of coal to produce iron
$2+B in new US projects announced
DRI-derived steel of higher quality than that created from
recycled scrap, further driving demand
Opportunity in U.S. methanol production
Capture price spread between low-cost natural gas and
methanol
Methanol is a very cost-efficient way to move natural gas to
higher-value foreign markets
US represents 10% of the global market
U.S. imports 89% of its supply on average
Natural gas is a feedstock for ammonia
production
Represents ~70% of cash costs (CF Industries)
12MM mt new domestic manufacturing capacity announced
Source: GE Capital presentation, November 2013
Source: IHS Energy, September 2013
14. 14
US gas demand will grow due
to:
Coal-fired generation plant
converting to gas
More industrial use – steel, fertilizer,
methanol
Mexican export via pipeline and LNG
export overseas
Increasing use as transportation fuel
US gas cost competitiveness
is sustainable
30+ year supply at ~$4 mm/btu; cost
of production decreasing
Supply will overwhelm demand
as prices approach $5 mm/btu
US government will likely limit LNG
export to protect US from world gas
market price
Industrial use will represent only ~1/3
of 2020 production (75B cf/d)
US Shale Gas Background and Future
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: RBN Energy
15. 15Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: American Chemistry Council, February 2014
>$100B of Chemical Expansion
Announced
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Phase I - Gas & Power-intensive Industries:
Steel, Fertilizer, Methanol
Phase II - Downstream Products:
Resins, Chemicals
Phase III – “Manufacturing”:
Raw material cost driven
Phase I – Industries using gas as primary
feedstock have global cost competitiveness
and new US factories being built
Phase II – Downstream products require
significant processing facilities investment
and lead time
Phase III – About 65% of the cost of
manufactured product is material cost; US
material cost advantage will enable more
traditional manufacturing to return to the
US from low cost labor countries
SHALE
GAS
BOOM
Shale Gas Phased ImpactTo US Industrial Renaissance
16. 16
The Importance of Price Differentials to Crude by Rail
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Differentials made rail attractive
Bakken andWTI differential as high as ~$20/bbl vs. Brent
in 2012
CBR enables producers to sell at trading hubs with higher
benchmarks
Market response: E&P, midstream players
willing to rapidly deploy significant capital to
enable access and capitalize on spreads
Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays and at
destination markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt.
Arthur,TX,Albany, NY, Bakersfield,CA)
Lease and purchase of railcar fleets
Refineries install unit train receiving capability
Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to
waterborne imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB,
Washington state)
Pipeline capacity underutilized
Rail captures 73% Bakken takeaway byApril 2013
Differentials are both an incentive – and a risk
– for crude by rail
3Q 2013 a cautionary note
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG Analysis, Feb. 2014
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, January 2014, PLG Analysis
18. 18
Shale Development and Crude By Rail: Current Market Dynamics
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Adverse 3Q 2013 market forces have reversed
WTI-Brent spread now ~$9/bbl
CBR rebound driven by Bakken to coasts
Weak long-term outlook for Bakken CBR to USGC
Key driver: LLS now aligned with WTI, not Brent
“Next wave” of CBR development:
Canadian Oil Sands
Terminal investments in Alberta and PADD II and III
~800 bbl/day planned AB loading capacity through 2015 = 25% of
production
NOT like the Bakken – more challenges
Complexities of heavy/sour product handling (steaming, diluent,
unit train challenges)
Fewer destinations
Existing – and growing – mode competition to logical markets
(pipelines and barge)
Tank car market reorienting to coiled/insulated
car types (~2/3 of CBR fleet order backlog)
Source: RBN Energy, February 2014
Brent vs. WTI Spread
Source: Y Charts, February 2014
19. 19
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford
Niobrara East Coast
Refiners
Pacific Northwest
Refiners
California
Refiners
TX Gulf Coast
Refiners
LA Gulf Coast
Refiners
Light/Sweet at TX GC
Bakken (pipe): $101
Brent (ship): $111
WTI (pipe): $105
Light/Sweet at PNW
Bakken (rail): $103
Brent (ship): $112
Light/Sweet at EC
Bakken (rail): $105
Brent (ship): $111
Light/Sweet at LA GC
Bakken (rail): $105
LLS (local): $106
Brent
ANS
Brent
Sources: EIA, PAALP, CIBC, CME
Group, PLG analysis (Google Earth)
PADD I
Demand
2,525
kbpd
PADD III
Demand
8,150
kbpd
PADDV
Demand
1,075
kbpd
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
$90
(wellhead)
WTI:$100
Marine
Rail
Pipeline
Cushing, OK
Chicago, IL
Clearbrook, MN
St. James, LA $6
Spread Feb. 2014 CBR Impact
Brent - WTI
$8.58/bbl +
LLS - WTI
$5.41/bbl =
WTI - Bakken
(Clearbrook)
$4.09/bbl =
Light/Sweet Crude Logistics and Price Differentials and CBR Impact
(+ - = ) – February 2014
21. 21
Forecast of Light Crude Railcar Supply and Demand
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Light crude production increases vs.
general purpose railcar capacity increases
Significant increase in railcar capacity with the large
railcar backlog
If pipelines and local refining can consume production
increases in Permian and Eagle Ford, light crude by
rail (non Oil-Sands) will be primarilyWilliston Basin
(Bakken)
Under best-case scenario for rail market
share capture, data suggests existing &
planned general purpose tank car (light
crude) fleet exceeds demand
Possible retrofit of “old design” railcars
could dramatically decrease capacity
Approx. 2/3 of unlined, 30K/gallon fleet would need
retrofit
Sources: CAPP, AAR, NDPA, Various Industry Sources and PLG analysis, February 2014
Assumptions:
• Williston: 80% rail market share of Williston’s projected volumes
• 39,000 tank cars in crude service for light crude in February and build rate of
12,000 railcars/year of tank cars for light crude service through end of 2015
with attrition rate of 2,500 railcars/year
• 700 bbl. average railcar capacity and average 23 day turn
• Other production sources increase at rate of 16% per year
22. 22
High Profile Accidents Changing Crude by Rail
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Rail industry has a strong safety record, but optics of
CBR accidents are overwhelming any positive
statistics
Railroad operating rule changes on hazmat train
handling
Increased scrutiny, insurance requirements
Short line and regional railroads in particular
May have consequences in CBR freight rates
Increased product testing, documentation and
traceability (FRA directive)
Oil chemistry varies by well/pad
Concerns with extremely low flash and boiling points
Bakken terminals at varying levels of compliance
24. 24
Looking Ahead: Crude By Rail SWOT
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Primary strengths and opportunities
Rapid implementation, scale up of operations, terminals, transit times
Shorter contracts (2-3 year commitments vs. 10 years for pipeline)
Access to coastal areas not connected via pipeline
Origin/destination flexibility/facilitation of arbitrage opportunities
Foundational business (i.e. refining and E&P majors who have made a
structural commitment toCBR)
Growth in Canadian CBR
Primary threats and weaknesses
Exposure to changing price differentials
Narrow WTI-Brent spread (EIA projects $11-12/bbl for 2014)
Adverse benchmark alignment (i.e. WTI-LLS; now ~$5 differential)
Impacts to Brent beyond US control (geopolitical events, global demand)
Structural changes in supply
Permian and Eagle Ford supply to USGC
Water-borne Eagle Ford crude deliveries to USEC
Continued pipeline development
Adverse commercial consequences from recent accidents, i.e. unreasonable
timeline for tank car retrofits
Oversupply resulting in crude prices at <$75/bbl
Supply Sources
Oil Prices
Destination
Markets
Capital
KEY DRIVERS
25. Logistics Engineering SupplyChain
Questions?
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For follow up questions and information,
please contact:
Graham Brisben, CEO
+1 (708) 386-0700 / gbrisben@plgconsulting.com
Taylor Robinson, President
+1 (508) 982-1319 / trobinson@plgconsulting.com