PLG Headlines General Session at NAFTANEXT Conference
PLG Consulting’s CEO, Graham Brisben, and President, Taylor Robinson, delivered the General Session presentation entitled New Energy: The Game-Changer in North America on Thursday, April 24 at the 2014 NAFTANEXT Conference.
Held in Chicago, IL, NAFTANEXT is a tri-national summit focused on the future of North American supply chains. The agenda of this annual event touches on environmental, energy, safety, and profitability issues in the freight industry.
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a logistics and supply chain consulting firm, and discusses how shale gas development is driving a manufacturing revolution in the United States. It notes that technological advances have unlocked previously inaccessible shale gas resources, lowering energy costs and providing abundant feedstocks. This low-cost shale gas and natural gas liquids are attracting manufacturing industries back to the US and driving expansion of existing chemical and industrial facilities. The document outlines impacts along the natural gas supply chain from production through processing, transportation and end use.
Oil Producers Turn Wellhead Flare Gas Headaches into BenefitsStephen Rach
Berg Chilling Systems Inc. and GTUIT have teamed up to launch GTUIT Core System, a game changing solution to the wellhead gas challenge. GTUIT Core enables oil producers to reduce environmental impact of their operations, reduce production costs and increase revenue.
This document discusses the impact of unconventional energy resources like shale oil and gas and oil sands on rail transportation in North America. It notes that technological advances have enabled increased production from these resources, driving growth in related rail shipments of materials like frac sand and crude oil. However, pipeline capacity constraints currently necessitate significant crude by rail shipments, especially of Canadian oil. The document also examines proposed regulations on rail shipments of crude oil and their potential effects. Overall rail traffic of frac sand and crude oil has grown rapidly but further growth depends on regulatory and infrastructure developments.
PLG Provides Industry Update to Stifel Nicolaus InvestorsPLG Consulting
On May 24, 2013, PLG CEO Graham Brisben and President Taylor Robinson presented to industry investors and analysts via teleconference sponsored by Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets. Graham’s presentation was entitled “Crude by Rail Update.” Taylor’s presentation was entitled “Shale Gas – Driver of Reshoring.” The presentations addressed the current crude-by-rail market in the US, as well as industry trends leading to a renewed reshoring focus for US manufacturers.
This document provides an overview of energy production, transportation, and consumption. It discusses topics like fracking, the Keystone XL pipeline, coal and natural gas production, and unconventional oil and gas resources. It also summarizes changes in North American energy infrastructure and flows to accommodate increasing domestic production.
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a logistics and supply chain consulting firm, and discusses how shale gas development is driving a manufacturing revolution in the United States. It notes that technological advances have unlocked previously inaccessible shale gas resources, lowering energy costs and providing abundant feedstocks. This low-cost shale gas and natural gas liquids are attracting manufacturing industries back to the US and driving expansion of existing chemical and industrial facilities. The document outlines impacts along the natural gas supply chain from production through processing, transportation and end use.
Oil Producers Turn Wellhead Flare Gas Headaches into BenefitsStephen Rach
Berg Chilling Systems Inc. and GTUIT have teamed up to launch GTUIT Core System, a game changing solution to the wellhead gas challenge. GTUIT Core enables oil producers to reduce environmental impact of their operations, reduce production costs and increase revenue.
This document discusses the impact of unconventional energy resources like shale oil and gas and oil sands on rail transportation in North America. It notes that technological advances have enabled increased production from these resources, driving growth in related rail shipments of materials like frac sand and crude oil. However, pipeline capacity constraints currently necessitate significant crude by rail shipments, especially of Canadian oil. The document also examines proposed regulations on rail shipments of crude oil and their potential effects. Overall rail traffic of frac sand and crude oil has grown rapidly but further growth depends on regulatory and infrastructure developments.
PLG Provides Industry Update to Stifel Nicolaus InvestorsPLG Consulting
On May 24, 2013, PLG CEO Graham Brisben and President Taylor Robinson presented to industry investors and analysts via teleconference sponsored by Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets. Graham’s presentation was entitled “Crude by Rail Update.” Taylor’s presentation was entitled “Shale Gas – Driver of Reshoring.” The presentations addressed the current crude-by-rail market in the US, as well as industry trends leading to a renewed reshoring focus for US manufacturers.
This document provides an overview of energy production, transportation, and consumption. It discusses topics like fracking, the Keystone XL pipeline, coal and natural gas production, and unconventional oil and gas resources. It also summarizes changes in North American energy infrastructure and flows to accommodate increasing domestic production.
Changes to the generation portfolio, the introduction of significant renewable resources, and the deployment of customer-side resources are fundamentally changing the way electricity is produced and delivered to customers. These changes are having a significant impact on the developments and operation of the transmission system and are occurring in an environment of decreasing demand growth which impacts utility revenues and puts pressure on rates. This presentation will examine how they will impact the amount and location of transmission needed, the rates that can be charged for it, and its relative value in a utility’s portfolio assets.
Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) are a viable alternative to gasoline and diesel vehicles. NGVs have environmental advantages as natural gas produces less greenhouse gases and other emissions than gasoline or diesel. They also have safety advantages as natural gas is lighter than air and dissipates quickly when released. There are economic advantages to NGVs as well, as natural gas prices have remained stable while gasoline and diesel prices have fluctuated significantly. With tax incentives, fleets can see a payback period of 2-4 years by switching to NGVs. CenterPoint Energy offers compressed and liquefied natural gas fueling options in Minnesota.
Plg refc presentation 2015 v gb 16 9 aspect final 030115PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a logistics and supply chain consulting firm, and discusses the implications of the North American energy revolution for the rail industry. PLG Consulting has over a decade of experience in logistics, engineering, and supply chain consulting for over 200 clients in bulk logistics, freight rail, energy, chemicals, and private equity. The document summarizes the growth of unconventional oil and gas extraction from US shale and Canadian oil sands due to new technologies, leading to surging domestic production and declining imports to North America. This energy boom has significant implications for growing crude by rail transportation on the continent.
Pakistan faces significant energy shortages as demand outpaces supply. The country relies heavily on expensive imported oil and gas, rather than domestic coal and hydropower. To address the energy crisis, the plan proposes exploring and developing Pakistan's domestic energy resources, including 1,250 MTOE of oil and gas and 1,540 MTOE of coal. It also aims to boost renewable energy like hydro and wind. Key strategies include developing coal resources like Thar, importing LNG, and pursuing gas pipeline projects with Iran and Turkmenistan to diversify Pakistan's energy mix and reduce reliance on expensive imports.
Presentation To N P T I O Il & Gas Source Nov 03 1Jayanta Bora
The document discusses sources of oil and gas and their importance for the power sector. It provides historical data on global and Indian energy consumption trends over time. Key points include natural gas emerging as a competing fuel for power generation due to new indigenous gas finds and growing LNG infrastructure in India. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing component of the global energy mix in the future. The document also outlines India's hydrocarbon vision for 2025 which aims to increase domestic oil and gas production and supply to improve energy security.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the implications of lower oil prices for the North American rail and rail equipment markets from PLG Consulting. It notes that while shale oil rig counts are falling quickly in response to low prices, US and Canadian crude oil production will still grow in the medium term. It forecasts that crude by rail volumes will continue to increase through 2019, with the Bakken and Western Canada being the main drivers. Pipeline buildout remains a key issue, and crude by rail provides flexibility as an option to pipelines.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the implications of lower oil prices for the North American rail and rail equipment markets from PLG Consulting. It notes that while shale oil rig counts are falling quickly in response to low prices, US and Canadian crude oil production will still grow in the medium term. It forecasts that crude by rail volumes will continue to increase through 2019, with the Bakken and Western Canada being the main drivers. Pipeline buildout remains a key issue, and crude by rail provides flexibility as an option to pipelines.
Shale exploration has become a large industry expected to grow over the next 30 years, driven by initiatives from the 1970s oil crisis. Technological advances enabled commercial production of shale gas through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The US now has over 2,000 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas reserves. Economic implications of the shale boom include high profitability, changing global export and import dynamics, job opportunities, and economic improvements.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rapidly changing the structure of the global gas industry.
Flexible in transportation, safe in use, and competitive in supply, LNG today has already won more than 40% of the physical volume of world gas exports and is expected to reach 60% by 2040. In 2020, the development of the LNG market underwent significant transformations, as the COVID-19 pandemic posed a challenge to the global economy.
This document discusses the promotion of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a transportation fuel in Tennessee. It notes that PBG Energy is partnering with others to build public CNG fueling stations and create a network across the state. The document provides facts about natural gas, including that it is safer, cleaner and more abundant than petroleum fuels. It outlines the environmental, energy security and economic benefits of using natural gas vehicles. The document also discusses CNG station design options from large transit stations to small fleet time-fill stations and provides cost estimates. It promotes the use of CNG as a cheaper, cleaner and domestic fuel alternative that improves energy security.
Xebec Inc. is a leading manufacturer of natural gas and renewable gas systems focused on infrastructure development. It provides biogas upgrading plants, hydrogen purification systems, and natural gas dryers. Xebec has a global presence with headquarters in Montreal, Canada and is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It sees opportunities in developing partnerships to increase the use of natural and renewable gases as transportation fuels. Xebec has extensive experience with biogas upgrading projects internationally and sees growing demand for renewable gas in transportation due to blending requirements and economics.
Policy – liquefied natural gas (lng) - Cananda - november 19 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discuss the natural gas strategy for Canada. Canada is looking to expand exports, especially to Asia. The problem that Canada lacks the pipeline capacity to expand exports.
[PRESENTATION] PLEA 2017 | Ethane--a green(er) clean(er) transportation fuel ...Kimberly L. King
This is a presentation prepared for the Transpo Forum of PLEA (Passive Low Energy Architecture) 'Design To Thrive' Conference. Edinburgh, Scotland. 3-5 July 2017
CNG Options for Fleets and Updates on Local IncentivesTNenergy
Compressed natural gas (CNG) provides several benefits as a transportation fuel according to the document. CNG is cleaner burning than gasoline, reducing emissions of pollutants like carbon monoxide, mercury, and particulate matter. It is also domestically sourced, with 98% of natural gas consumption coming from U.S. and Canada sources. CNG is reliably delivered through existing natural gas infrastructure and is a more cost-effective fuel option compared to diesel. The document outlines how CNG use is growing among commercial fleets and provides examples of fueling station setups to enable greater CNG adoption.
The presentation summarizes Clean Coal Technologies' business and technology. It discusses the company's management team and strategic partnerships. It then provides an overview of the growing global demand for coal and issues with existing coal, before detailing CCTI's patented coal upgrading processes. The presentation outlines the technology, its benefits over alternatives, the planned commercial rollout and compelling projected plant economics.
130718 ditmeyer natural gas locomotives - trb Stephanie Camay
This document discusses natural gas locomotives and summarizes several key points:
1) Natural gas locomotives require systems to carry and deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel, with tender cars generally needed for road locomotives and belly tanks preferred for switchers.
2) There are different approaches for converting diesel locomotive engines to run on natural gas, including low-pressure direct injection and fumigation systems.
3) Past demonstration programs of natural gas locomotives showed the technology can work successfully in revenue service, but wider adoption requires further development of fueling infrastructure and education.
Indonesia lng to support development of power and industry domestic sampe ...Sampe Purba
The document discusses Indonesia's efforts to meet growing domestic demand for natural gas through LNG imports and infrastructure development. It summarizes SKK Migas' role in managing upstream oil and gas to support economic growth and ensure fair returns. It also outlines Indonesia's shifting focus to gas to fuel power plants and industry, the rising gas demand projections, and plans to construct new pipelines and floating storage regasification units to deliver gas across the country.
Learn the basics of biogas use and its current role in Wisconsin. Next, manufacturers will talk about biogas systems and requirements. Lastly, fleets will talk about their firsthand experience using biogas as a transportation fuel.
Gtl hi lite - A Case on Simenggaris and Bengara PSC - IndonesiaFurqon Hanief
The document discusses opportunities for a mini gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant application in Indonesia. It notes unused gas potential from the Simenggaris and Bengara gas blocks and recent gas price corrections. Fischer-Tropsch GTL technology has been commercially viable since 1925 and compact GTL technology offers manageable capital costs for small-to-mid gas volumes. Modular GTL projects in locations like Alaska and Texas are mentioned as examples. The proposed scheme involves engineering, fabrication, installation and operation of a GTL facility to convert up to 30 million standard cubic feet per day of gas to around 3,000 barrels per day of liquid products with an estimated capital cost of $100 million. Various business
The liquefied natural gas sector has experienced large growth in the last decade and is expected to grow more in the decades to come.
WorleyParsons recently completed a study for the Global CCS Institute to identify the trends in the LNG sector and to make a range of assessments on how these trends may impact on the CCS industry.
At this webinar, Graeme Cox, Principal Consultant from WorleyParsons focused on looking at industry wide and project specific aspects of LNG and relate these to industry wide and project specific aspects of CCS. The cost escalation of LNG projects was explained as well as the impact this may have on the deployment of CCS.
Graeme concluded by identifying opportunities whereby LNG and CCS can be integrated.
This document provides an overview of the North American energy revolution driven by shale oil and gas resources. It discusses the abundant recoverable unconventional energy resources including shale plays and oil sands. New technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked these resources and driven down costs. This has led to a surge in production, displaced imports, and growing exports. It also discusses the infrastructure challenges of moving these new sources of supply and the impacts on downstream industries.
Rail summit gb presentation vgb final 060614PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development and its impacts on transportation. It discusses the resources and technologies enabling the North American energy revolution, including shale gas and tight oil plays. It also outlines trends in shale gas and tight oil production, processing, and transportation, including the increased use of rail and pipelines. The document summarizes how shale development is reshaping North American energy trade patterns and industrial development.
Changes to the generation portfolio, the introduction of significant renewable resources, and the deployment of customer-side resources are fundamentally changing the way electricity is produced and delivered to customers. These changes are having a significant impact on the developments and operation of the transmission system and are occurring in an environment of decreasing demand growth which impacts utility revenues and puts pressure on rates. This presentation will examine how they will impact the amount and location of transmission needed, the rates that can be charged for it, and its relative value in a utility’s portfolio assets.
Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) are a viable alternative to gasoline and diesel vehicles. NGVs have environmental advantages as natural gas produces less greenhouse gases and other emissions than gasoline or diesel. They also have safety advantages as natural gas is lighter than air and dissipates quickly when released. There are economic advantages to NGVs as well, as natural gas prices have remained stable while gasoline and diesel prices have fluctuated significantly. With tax incentives, fleets can see a payback period of 2-4 years by switching to NGVs. CenterPoint Energy offers compressed and liquefied natural gas fueling options in Minnesota.
Plg refc presentation 2015 v gb 16 9 aspect final 030115PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of PLG Consulting, a logistics and supply chain consulting firm, and discusses the implications of the North American energy revolution for the rail industry. PLG Consulting has over a decade of experience in logistics, engineering, and supply chain consulting for over 200 clients in bulk logistics, freight rail, energy, chemicals, and private equity. The document summarizes the growth of unconventional oil and gas extraction from US shale and Canadian oil sands due to new technologies, leading to surging domestic production and declining imports to North America. This energy boom has significant implications for growing crude by rail transportation on the continent.
Pakistan faces significant energy shortages as demand outpaces supply. The country relies heavily on expensive imported oil and gas, rather than domestic coal and hydropower. To address the energy crisis, the plan proposes exploring and developing Pakistan's domestic energy resources, including 1,250 MTOE of oil and gas and 1,540 MTOE of coal. It also aims to boost renewable energy like hydro and wind. Key strategies include developing coal resources like Thar, importing LNG, and pursuing gas pipeline projects with Iran and Turkmenistan to diversify Pakistan's energy mix and reduce reliance on expensive imports.
Presentation To N P T I O Il & Gas Source Nov 03 1Jayanta Bora
The document discusses sources of oil and gas and their importance for the power sector. It provides historical data on global and Indian energy consumption trends over time. Key points include natural gas emerging as a competing fuel for power generation due to new indigenous gas finds and growing LNG infrastructure in India. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing component of the global energy mix in the future. The document also outlines India's hydrocarbon vision for 2025 which aims to increase domestic oil and gas production and supply to improve energy security.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the implications of lower oil prices for the North American rail and rail equipment markets from PLG Consulting. It notes that while shale oil rig counts are falling quickly in response to low prices, US and Canadian crude oil production will still grow in the medium term. It forecasts that crude by rail volumes will continue to increase through 2019, with the Bakken and Western Canada being the main drivers. Pipeline buildout remains a key issue, and crude by rail provides flexibility as an option to pipelines.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the implications of lower oil prices for the North American rail and rail equipment markets from PLG Consulting. It notes that while shale oil rig counts are falling quickly in response to low prices, US and Canadian crude oil production will still grow in the medium term. It forecasts that crude by rail volumes will continue to increase through 2019, with the Bakken and Western Canada being the main drivers. Pipeline buildout remains a key issue, and crude by rail provides flexibility as an option to pipelines.
Shale exploration has become a large industry expected to grow over the next 30 years, driven by initiatives from the 1970s oil crisis. Technological advances enabled commercial production of shale gas through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The US now has over 2,000 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas reserves. Economic implications of the shale boom include high profitability, changing global export and import dynamics, job opportunities, and economic improvements.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rapidly changing the structure of the global gas industry.
Flexible in transportation, safe in use, and competitive in supply, LNG today has already won more than 40% of the physical volume of world gas exports and is expected to reach 60% by 2040. In 2020, the development of the LNG market underwent significant transformations, as the COVID-19 pandemic posed a challenge to the global economy.
This document discusses the promotion of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a transportation fuel in Tennessee. It notes that PBG Energy is partnering with others to build public CNG fueling stations and create a network across the state. The document provides facts about natural gas, including that it is safer, cleaner and more abundant than petroleum fuels. It outlines the environmental, energy security and economic benefits of using natural gas vehicles. The document also discusses CNG station design options from large transit stations to small fleet time-fill stations and provides cost estimates. It promotes the use of CNG as a cheaper, cleaner and domestic fuel alternative that improves energy security.
Xebec Inc. is a leading manufacturer of natural gas and renewable gas systems focused on infrastructure development. It provides biogas upgrading plants, hydrogen purification systems, and natural gas dryers. Xebec has a global presence with headquarters in Montreal, Canada and is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It sees opportunities in developing partnerships to increase the use of natural and renewable gases as transportation fuels. Xebec has extensive experience with biogas upgrading projects internationally and sees growing demand for renewable gas in transportation due to blending requirements and economics.
Policy – liquefied natural gas (lng) - Cananda - november 19 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discuss the natural gas strategy for Canada. Canada is looking to expand exports, especially to Asia. The problem that Canada lacks the pipeline capacity to expand exports.
[PRESENTATION] PLEA 2017 | Ethane--a green(er) clean(er) transportation fuel ...Kimberly L. King
This is a presentation prepared for the Transpo Forum of PLEA (Passive Low Energy Architecture) 'Design To Thrive' Conference. Edinburgh, Scotland. 3-5 July 2017
CNG Options for Fleets and Updates on Local IncentivesTNenergy
Compressed natural gas (CNG) provides several benefits as a transportation fuel according to the document. CNG is cleaner burning than gasoline, reducing emissions of pollutants like carbon monoxide, mercury, and particulate matter. It is also domestically sourced, with 98% of natural gas consumption coming from U.S. and Canada sources. CNG is reliably delivered through existing natural gas infrastructure and is a more cost-effective fuel option compared to diesel. The document outlines how CNG use is growing among commercial fleets and provides examples of fueling station setups to enable greater CNG adoption.
The presentation summarizes Clean Coal Technologies' business and technology. It discusses the company's management team and strategic partnerships. It then provides an overview of the growing global demand for coal and issues with existing coal, before detailing CCTI's patented coal upgrading processes. The presentation outlines the technology, its benefits over alternatives, the planned commercial rollout and compelling projected plant economics.
130718 ditmeyer natural gas locomotives - trb Stephanie Camay
This document discusses natural gas locomotives and summarizes several key points:
1) Natural gas locomotives require systems to carry and deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel, with tender cars generally needed for road locomotives and belly tanks preferred for switchers.
2) There are different approaches for converting diesel locomotive engines to run on natural gas, including low-pressure direct injection and fumigation systems.
3) Past demonstration programs of natural gas locomotives showed the technology can work successfully in revenue service, but wider adoption requires further development of fueling infrastructure and education.
Indonesia lng to support development of power and industry domestic sampe ...Sampe Purba
The document discusses Indonesia's efforts to meet growing domestic demand for natural gas through LNG imports and infrastructure development. It summarizes SKK Migas' role in managing upstream oil and gas to support economic growth and ensure fair returns. It also outlines Indonesia's shifting focus to gas to fuel power plants and industry, the rising gas demand projections, and plans to construct new pipelines and floating storage regasification units to deliver gas across the country.
Learn the basics of biogas use and its current role in Wisconsin. Next, manufacturers will talk about biogas systems and requirements. Lastly, fleets will talk about their firsthand experience using biogas as a transportation fuel.
Gtl hi lite - A Case on Simenggaris and Bengara PSC - IndonesiaFurqon Hanief
The document discusses opportunities for a mini gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant application in Indonesia. It notes unused gas potential from the Simenggaris and Bengara gas blocks and recent gas price corrections. Fischer-Tropsch GTL technology has been commercially viable since 1925 and compact GTL technology offers manageable capital costs for small-to-mid gas volumes. Modular GTL projects in locations like Alaska and Texas are mentioned as examples. The proposed scheme involves engineering, fabrication, installation and operation of a GTL facility to convert up to 30 million standard cubic feet per day of gas to around 3,000 barrels per day of liquid products with an estimated capital cost of $100 million. Various business
The liquefied natural gas sector has experienced large growth in the last decade and is expected to grow more in the decades to come.
WorleyParsons recently completed a study for the Global CCS Institute to identify the trends in the LNG sector and to make a range of assessments on how these trends may impact on the CCS industry.
At this webinar, Graeme Cox, Principal Consultant from WorleyParsons focused on looking at industry wide and project specific aspects of LNG and relate these to industry wide and project specific aspects of CCS. The cost escalation of LNG projects was explained as well as the impact this may have on the deployment of CCS.
Graeme concluded by identifying opportunities whereby LNG and CCS can be integrated.
This document provides an overview of the North American energy revolution driven by shale oil and gas resources. It discusses the abundant recoverable unconventional energy resources including shale plays and oil sands. New technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked these resources and driven down costs. This has led to a surge in production, displaced imports, and growing exports. It also discusses the infrastructure challenges of moving these new sources of supply and the impacts on downstream industries.
Rail summit gb presentation vgb final 060614PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development and its impacts on transportation. It discusses the resources and technologies enabling the North American energy revolution, including shale gas and tight oil plays. It also outlines trends in shale gas and tight oil production, processing, and transportation, including the increased use of rail and pipelines. The document summarizes how shale development is reshaping North American energy trade patterns and industrial development.
This document summarizes a conference call hosted by Stifel Capital Markets on December 9, 2013. The call featured two presentations on topics related to the shale gas and oil industries in the United States: 1) The implications of shale gas for the resurgence of US manufacturing, presented by Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting. 2) An analysis of the growth of crude oil transport by rail, or "crude by rail", presented by Graham Brisben also of PLG Consulting. The document provides background on PLG Consulting and outlines the agenda and dial-in details for the conference call.
Robinson presents shale gas implactions for US manufacturing renaissancePLG Consulting
PLG President Taylor Robinson presents "Shale Gas Implications For US Manufacturing Renaissance" at Reinvesting in American Manufacturing conference in Houston, TX.
The document summarizes the implications of the North American energy revolution for rail transportation. It discusses how new extraction technologies have led to surging domestic production of oil, gas and NGLs, displacing many imports. This has led to growth in crude-by-rail as production outpaced pipeline capacity, especially for Bakken crude moving to refineries. It forecasts crude-by-rail volumes remaining stable as pipelines are built out slowly, and prices expected to rebound after a challenging 2015 enables continued production growth and frac sand/crude-by-rail demand.
Goldman sachs industrial conference nov 12, 2014 t robinsonPLG Consulting
Taylor Robinson of PLG Consulting gave a presentation on how shale gas will drive a US manufacturing revolution. The presentation discussed:
1) How technological advances like fracking and horizontal drilling have unlocked vast shale gas resources in North America, leading to an energy revolution with lower domestic energy costs.
2) How the abundance of shale gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane provide a competitive advantage for US chemical and manufacturing industries that use gas and NGLs as feedstocks or fuel.
3) That the US now has a substantial material cost advantage compared to other regions due to low gas prices, which could enable traditional manufacturing to return to North America as material costs typically represent 60-70% of
PLG Consulting Appalachian logistics League May 5, 2015PLG Consulting
PLG president, Taylor Robinson spoke on May 5, 2015 at the 65th annual Appalachian Logistics League meeting. Mr. Robinson presentedThe North American Energy Revolution: The Implication for Logistics. The meeting was an opportunity for members to network and discuss the ever changing industry of Supply Chain and Logistics with a primary focus on the impacts to the region.
PLG Rail Equipment Finance Presentation March 2014PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development impacts on transportation and logistics. It discusses how shale development has increased demand for rail transportation of materials like frac sand, crude oil, and feedstocks. It also notes that while shale-related rail traffic has grown, it remains relatively small compared to existing coal volumes. The document summarizes trends in various shale-related commodities and outlines questions around the future of industries like frac sand and crude by rail.
MARS Meeting Summer 2015-North American Energy Revolution-Implications for RailPLG Consulting
This presentation features an overview of the North American energy market with updates on PLG's Crude by Rail And Frac Sand Market report. PLG's expert analysis included market intelligence on the small covered hopper market and the U.S. industrial expansion from the shale gas production increase.
PLG MARS Presentation Energy Logistics 070913PLG Consulting
This document discusses the impacts of increased shale oil and gas development on freight transportation and logistics. Key points include:
1) Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have driven large increases in U.S. oil and natural gas production from shale plays. This has disrupted traditional supply chains and driven growth in related industries like petrochemicals and steel manufacturing.
2) Shale development requires large volumes of frac sand, water, and other inputs to be transported to well sites by rail and truck. It also produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that must be moved out of plays through pipelines, rail, and trucks.
3) Abundant natural gas supplies are displacing coal
PLG Presents to Midwest Association of Rail ShippersPLG Consulting
On July 9, 2013, CEO Graham Brisben presented PLG’s perspective of the shifting economy by examining the impact of crude by rail in today’s marketplace. More specifically, Graham discussed the impact of shale oil and gas which is upending traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry which has started an industrial renaissance in the U.S.
The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas: Crude Oil is Only the BeginningPLG Consulting
On June 3, 2013, Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant at PLG Consulting presented at the American Railway Development Association’s 107th Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA. Gordon’s presentation, entitled “The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas. Crude Oil is Only the Beginning,” analyzes and forecasts the dramatic impact of shale oil and gas which has upended traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry, starting an industrial renaissance in the US.
PLG REFC presentation "Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts"PLG Consulting
This document provides an overview of shale development impacts on transportation and logistics. Key points include:
- Shale development has increased demand for rail transportation of frac sand, crude oil, and other products over the last decade.
- Frac sand and crude oil by rail volumes have grown significantly since 2010 but remain smaller than coal volumes transported by rail.
- Low natural gas prices are driving growth in gas-intensive industries like steel, fertilizer, and methanol production in the US.
- Abundant and low-cost natural gas and natural gas liquids from shale are enhancing competitiveness of US manufacturing industries over the long term.
PLG Consulting’s CEO, Graham Brisben presented his presentation Shale Developments: The Evolving Transportation Impacts to the Broe Group on June 23, 2014.
The document discusses trends in the US natural gas market, including:
- US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports.
- Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and coal plant retirements.
- Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports are expected to grow as US production increases and prices remain low relative to global markets, making the US a net exporter of natural gas.
The document discusses key trends in the US natural gas market, including:
1) US natural gas demand is increasingly served by domestic shale gas production rather than imports as shale gas production has increased dramatically in recent years.
2) Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to increase due to low prices and environmental regulations retiring coal plants.
3) Low natural gas prices are also expected to drive demand growth in industrial sectors and potentially exports as liquefied natural gas.
This document summarizes Westport Innovations, a global leader in natural gas engine technology. Westport aims to transition transportation from petroleum fuels to natural gas through strategic partnerships with vehicle manufacturers. Their technologies include spark ignited, dual fuel, and high pressure direct injection engines for applications ranging from heavy-duty trucks to passenger vehicles. Natural gas offers benefits over diesel like lower carbon emissions and more stable pricing. The document outlines Westport's technology focus areas and the key elements needed to further adoption of natural gas in transportation, including infrastructure development and supportive policies.
ABC Filters manufactures oil and air filters globally. It has developed a new gas turbine filter, E10, with a self-cleansing mechanism that reduces downtime. ABC aims to introduce E10 to the natural gas power generation market. It wants to analyze the market size and attractiveness of its filters, especially E10, to develop an effective strategy. The summary examines the natural gas filter market size in key regions to determine priority markets for E10 based on growth rates and market penetration. The Middle East and Africa are identified as attractive markets given their high growth potential and low existing market share.
PLG presents, "From Mine To Market: Overcoming Supply Chain Hurdles" at 3rd F...PLG Consulting
PLG president, Taylor Robinson spoke at the 3rd annual Frac Sand Conference, an Industrial Minerals Event, held in Minneapolis, Minnesota on September 1, 2015. PLG’s presentation, From Mine To Market: Overcoming Supply Chain Hurdles, featured the latest market intelligence on the effects of the global and U.S. energy markets on the frac sand market with updates on each link of the frac sand supply chain and the small covered hopper car market. Robinson also spoke about the latest fracking technology and its impacts on the short term outlook of the frac sand industry along with opportunities for long term growth. Robinson also moderated the three logistics sessions at the conference.
From Upstream to Downstream: Opportunities and Challenges for RailPLG Consulting
With unprecedented highs in crude, NGL, and natural gas production, the US is leveraging abundant and low-cost hydrocarbons to become one of the largest energy and chemicals suppliers to the world. PLG Consulting’s CEO Graham Brisben details why this is happening and what it means for rail shipments and car demand in sand, refined products, chemicals, and other commodities. Download this free presentation given at the Rail Equipment Finance Conference 2019. In it, you’ll discover:
- What’s expected for frac sand rail shipments in 2019
- How small cube hoppers are affecting cars in storage
- The biggest stories that represent potential new rail volumes/tank car demand
- The forecast for shale-driven industrial investment
Frac Sand Market and Logistics, Plus Special Report on Permian Takeaway Logis...PLG Consulting
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schneyer robinson
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Abstract:
Let’s talk about powerful conversations! We all know how to lead a constructive conversation, right? Then why is it so difficult to have those conversations with people at work, especially those in powerful positions that show resistance to change?
Learning to control and direct conversations takes understanding and practice.
We can combine our innate empathy with our analytical skills to gain a deeper understanding of complex situations at work. Join this session to learn how to prepare for difficult conversations and how to improve our agile conversations in order to be more influential without power. We will use Dave Gray’s Empathy Mapping, Argyris’ Ladder of Inference and The Four Rs from Agile Conversations (Squirrel and Fredrick).
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This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
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This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
The remarkable life of Sir Mokshagundam Visvesvaraya.pptx
Naftanext04242014final
1. Logistics Engineering Supply Chain
New Energy:
The Game Changer
in North America
ByTaylor Robinson & Graham Brisben
Prepared for:
April 24, 2014
NAFTANEXT
Energizing Sustainable
Trade Corridors Across
North America
2. 2
Boutique consulting firm with team members
throughout North America
Established in 2001
Over 90 clients and 250 engagements
Significant shale development practice since 2010
Practice Areas
Logistics
Engineering
Supply Chain
Consulting services
Strategy & optimization
Assessments & best practice benchmarking
Logistics assets & infrastructure development
Supply Chain design & operations
Hazmat training, auditing & risk assessment
M&A/investments/private equity
Industry verticals
Energy
Bulk commodities
Manufactured goods
Financial services
About PLG Consulting
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Partial Client List
3. 3
Today’s Agenda
Taylor
What is “new energy” and why is it a game changer?
Impact of new crude oil, natural gas and NGL supply streams
Downstream impact on NAFTA manufacturing industries
What is the impact to Mexico?
Will the rest of the world catch up in shale?
Graham
Changes in North America energy logistics
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
4. 4
What is behind the North American energy revolution?
Resources
• N.A. shale plays
• Western Canadian
oil sands
Technologies examples
• Hydraulic fracturing
• Horizontal drilling
• Steam Assisted
Gravity Drainage
(SAGD)
• Evolving exploration
and production
technologies
• Tremendous
productivity gains
drives cost reductions
• Logistics infrastructure
“re-plumbing” in
progress
• Product abundance…
overabundance
• Imports displaced…
exports grow
• Recoverable resources
grow…sustainability
• Globally competitive
power and material
cost structure
• Manufacturing
industries grow/return
to North America
Recoverable
Resources &
Enabling
Technologies
Continuous
Improvement
Energy Revolution
5. 5
Unconventional Energy Resources
North America Shale
Source: EIA, May 2011
Western Canada Oil Sands
Source: CAPP, About Oil
Sands, June 2013
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
New production technology developed by small
entities allowing numerous players to enter market
“Mass production” methodologies developed
Multi-billion dollar capital investments required by
few players
Technology allowing for economic recovery of
world’s third largest reserve
6. 6
Convergence of hydraulic fracturing and
horizontal drilling in past decade
Fracking first used in 1947
Revolutionary advances since 2009
Yields 3-10x the initial production rate of conventional
wells
US uniquely positioned for the techniques
Private mineral rights
Drilling intensity (wells per acre)
90% of rig fleet equipped for horizontal drilling
Location of shale plays
Rapid ROI for E&P companies
Typical well earns back capital cost in 1-2 years
Depending on play productivity, “break even” price of
~$65/bbl (WTI) for oil and $3.50/Mbtu for gas
Liquid plays providing highest returns currently and a
majority of drilling rigs are focused on liquids
Intentional dry gas drilling still flat
ShaleTechnology Introduction
GAS OIL THERMAL
Source: Baker Hughes
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
7. 7
New fracking techniques include:
More well bores per well pad
Directional bores to multiple shale layers
Reduced well spacing per acreage – increases
Zipper wells – stimulating two wells in tandem
Optimal lateral lengths
Lateral lengths had tripled since the start of horizontal
drilling, but this trend is being challenged by new practices
Zone fracturing
Micro-fracture testing at multiple points vs. one average
test that enables highest extractions of each zone
Shorter, fatter fractures
Bigger holes in casing combined with additional sand and
water use
Productivity gains continue!
Time required for drilling 15,000+ ft. well cut in half in last
two years (9 days vs. 18 days)
Eagle Ford example – new well oil production per rig has
increased by 150% over past 3 years
Lowers break even costs drive profitability improvements
New Fracking Techniques Drive Increased Production At Lower Costs
Source: Marathon, February 2014
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, April 2014
8. 8
Oil (bitumen) recovery uses two main methods
- mining and drilling (in situ)
20% of the Oil Sands reserves are close enough to the
surface to be mined using shovels and trucks (3% of oil
sands land area)
80% of the Oil Sands reserves will be recovered in situ by
drilling wells (97% of oil sands land area)
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is
most popular method
Two parallel wells are drilled
Upper well has high pressure steam continuously injected
Lower well recovers softened bitumen
Diluent is added to the bitumen (15~30%)
Diluent is very light oil or “condensate”
Enables the product to flow through pipelines and be
loaded into rail cars
Bitumen extraction has become profitable as
extraction technologies improved
Economical at ~ $ 45 - $ 65/bbl
Oil Sands Production Processes
Mining
Source: www.epmag.com
Drilling - SAGD
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
9. 9
North American Crude Oil Growth
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
Western Canadian oil sands crude is heavy/sour
Canada has the 3rd largest oil reserves in the world
Largest single play in North America
Heavy/sour crude has a natural home at US Gulf Coast with ~2.8
MM bpd demand
Increasing exports toAsia in the future
Shale play crudes are light/sweet
Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian are “Big 3”
US crude is quickly displacing much of the imports at USGC and
Midwest refineries
US crude oil production is highest since 1988 at 7.9MMbbls/day
US crude oil cannot be exported without federal
authorization today (except to Canada)
Petroleum products can be exported and net exports have grown
to 1,950 kbpd in 2014-Q1 (gasoline, diesel)
Light shale crude quickly displacing foreign imports and may lead
to over-supply situation
Large amounts of very light crude (“condensate”) from shale is
driving investment into splitters (processing units) to enable
product export from USGC
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: Enbridge Investor Presentation, April 2014
North American Crude Supply Growth: 2013-2025
10. 10
Shale Supply Chain and Downstream Impacts
Feedstock (Ethane)
Byproduct
(Condensate)
Home Heating
(Propane)
Other Fuels
Gasoline
Diesel
Gas
NGLs
Crude
Proppants
OCTG
Chemicals
Water
Cement
Generation
Process Feedstocks
All Manufacturing
Steel
Fertilizer (Ammonia)
Methanol
Chemicals
Petro-chemicals
Other Petroleum
Products
Inputs Wellhead
Direct
Output
Thermal Fuels Raw Materials
Downstream
Products
Jet Fuel
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Availability of low cost hydrocarbons positively impact all the North American industrial
economy
11. 11
Shale Gas History and Future Demand
Gas production has increased over past five years
with a significantly lower gas rig count
1,000 rigs at peak down to ~300 rigs
Drilling productivity continues to increase production per well
and lower costs
And the Liquids (Crude, NGL) wells produce dry natural gas as a
by-product
Abundant US gas recoverable reserves
Low cost reserves in accessible locations near population
Marcellus gas production is the “eighth largest country” already
US will become a net gas exporter by 2020
US gas demand will grow due to:
Coal-fired generation plant converting to gas
More industrial use – steel, fertilizer, methanol
Mexican export via pipeline and LNG export overseas
Increasing use as transportation fuel
US gas cost competitiveness is sustainable
Supply will overwhelm demand as prices approach $5
US government and capital constraints will likely limit LNG
export to protect US from world gas market price
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Rig Count by Class vs. Gas Production
Source: Bentek, September 2013
Source: RBN Energy, January 2014
12. 12
Shale Gas Is ImportantTo Competitive Power Costs
Natural gas is ~5X cheaper than oil on
a BTU-basis
Innovation will convert more transportation
fuels and other energy requirements to
natural gas
US electricity prices are the lowest in
the industrial world
US industries now have substantial power
cost advantage
Gas drives an increasing share of the US
electricity generation capacity
Will continue to displace coal due to stricter
environmental regulations on coal-fired
facilities
Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel
compared to other hydrocarbons
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
WTI & Henry Hub Natural Gas Energy Equivalent Pricing
Source: EIA, February 2014
~5X
Source: International Energy Agency, October 2013 *estimate
13. 13
Dry andWet GasTurn Into Downstream Products
All shale plays have gas as a major
or minor portion of the product stream
Processing required at each step
Raw Natural Gas
(1500+ BTU)
Processing Plant
Consumer Quality
Dry Natural Gas
Methane
Ethane
42 – 65%
Propane
~28%
Normal Butane
~8%
Iso-Butane
~9%
Natural Gasoline
~13%
NGLs
(3 -9 gallon / MCF)
Y-Grade
Key Petrochemicals
$/MMBtu
Methane $4.53
Ethane $3.64
Propane $11.41
Iso-Butane $16.01
Normal Butane $11.43
Natural Gasoline $20.35
Source: Opis, April 2014 & CME Group, April 2014
“Dry”
“Wet”
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Ethane
overabundance
causing deflated
pricing
14. 14
Processing infrastructure being installed to
handle increased NGL supply
New facilities near shale plays
Domestic ethane supplies to quadruple by 2025
Exports of NGLs will continue to grow
NGLs are building blocks in chemical supply chain
US has shifted their petrochemical supply stream to >90%
ethane-based to leverage supply/cost advantage
Overabundance of NGLsWill Grow
Source: IHS Chemical, September 2013
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: IHS Energy
15. 15
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: American Chemistry Council, February 2014
>$100B of Chemical Expansion
Announced
Phase III – “Manufacturing”:
Raw material cost driven
Phase I – Industries using gas as primary
feedstock have global cost competitiveness;
new US factories being built
Phase II – Downstream products require
significant processing facilities investment and
lead time
Phase III – US material cost advantage will
enable traditional manufacturing to return to
the NorthAmerica as about 65% of the cost of
manufactured product is material cost
Shale Gas Phased ImpactTo NA Industrial Renaissance
Phase II - Downstream Products:
Resins, Chemicals
Phase I - Gas & Power-intensive Industries:
Steel, Fertilizer, Methanol
16. 16
Phase I - Steel, Methanol, & Fertilizer Manufacturing in US
Shale gas boom makes direct-reduced iron steel
economical
Gas strips oxygen from iron core to make high purity/quality
pellets – lower cost vs. scrap steel
$2B+ in new US projects announced
DRI-derived steel of higher quality than that scrap steel
U.S. methanol production – 10 projects announced
Methanol is used in numerous downstream chemical products
Captures price spread between low-cost natural gas and
methanol allowing move to higher value foreign markets
US currently represents 10% of the global market demand and
imports 89% of its supply
Natural gas is a feedstock for ammonia production
Represents ~70% of cash costs (CF Industries)
12MM mt new domestic manufacturing capacity announced
Imports will quickly be displaced
Source: IHS Energy, September 2013
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Falling Gas Prices a Boon to DRI
Production
Source: GE Capital presentation, November 2013
17. 17
Phase II - Low Cost NGLs Provides Significant Cost
Advantages for Chemicals and Resins
US has a large structural cost advantage due to gas-based
ethane for downstream products
Europe and Asia are tied to crude-based naptha as a feedstock for their
downstream processing
US production cost of ethylene is ~40% less than Europe and Asia
However, US ethylene cracker and processing capacity is
tight and ethylene prices are inflated in the short term
Ethane cracker margins have been as high as 50-60 cents/lb
Additional cracker capacity expected in 2016/2017
Margins/prices will moderate as more capacity comes online
New US resin facilities also on the drawing board
Excess resin capacity will promote globally competitive prices and large
export increases
ktons
ktons
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: Townsend Solutions, December 2013
Source: Townsend Solutions , December 2013
30,000
40,000
50,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
North America Ethylene Expansions
Actual Capacity Additional Capacity
Source: Townsend Solutions , December 2013
18. 18
Phase III - Material Cost Advantage Is Key Cost Driver to
Future North American Manufacturing Growth
Materials normally accounts for 60-70% of manufacturing
cost of goods sold (COGS)
Most product cost competition is won or lost here
Shale gas giving NA cost advantage for steel, plastics and chemicals
Total labor cost is ~20% of COGS for NA manufacturers
China labor cost in $ will continue to rise due to inflation and currency
appreciation
Mexico labor has increased competitiveness vs. China, will recapture
manufacturing share for medium/high labor manufacturing
Transportation & Logistics costs are in “Other” 15%
Asia/China has 5~10% cost disadvantage due to extra ~ 1 month shipping
lead time (major cash flow disadvantage)
Mexico has “near shore” advantage vs. Asia
Transportation costs continue to rise – proximity to market advantage
Energy cost is usually less than 5% for final manufacturer
However, energy costs are buried in raw material costs and transportation
and can be more substantial in energy-intensive products
US/Canada has a tremendous advantage vs. industrialized world
Mexico’s power costs will become more competitive with shale gas
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
19. 19
Energy Revolution ImpactTo Mexico
Shale gas exports to Mexico
Mexico is net importer of natural gas and demand will
grow due to increased use for power generation
US imports via pipelines will grow by ~50% over next 5
years
Privatization of Mexican oil industry may
help reverse production slide
Shale potential in Mexico – Eagle Ford first mover?
Increased interested in deep water oil drilling
However, western Canadian bitumen is a
natural competitor to Mexican Maya
Low cost materials to Mexico from US will
stimulate further manufacturing growth
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: EIA, March 2014
Source: EIA, October 2012
20. 20
December 2013 energy bill that removed the
prohibition against private investment in oil and
gas industry
Legal framework for oil and gas development is still not finalized
which will be important for private investment to understand taxes
and contracts before investing
Mexico’s proximity to US refineries and their
relative low costs of production make it potentially
attractive to US companies
Developers of deep water resources in Gulf of Mexico
Developers of shale plays such as part the Mexican portion of the
Eagle Ford
Mexico still in early stages of shale oil drilling
Only a few wells with modest results have been drilled
Pemex plans to drill up to 75 shale exploration wells through 2015
US companies could leverage technology and experience to
improve economics to make commercial production viable
Estimated first private investment contracts could materialize by
2015 with first investments seen in 2016
Liberalization of Mexican Oil Industry
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: OGJ, April 2014
21. 21
Russia
Siberian reserves are said to be 80X of Bakken
Total, Shell, Exxon, Statoil all investing
Second place soon?
China
Reserves in remote, mountainous locations
Technology transfer challenges
Only one oil company involved – stifles innovation
Argentina
Concerns with governmental regulation, price controls
Struggling with high cost proppants
Poland
Reserves not productive so far – Exxon, Marathon gave up
Encouraging recent results?
UK
Some gas reserves
Government support, but intense environmental opposition
Is Shale Energy A North American Phenomenon?
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: EIA, June 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Shale Oil Resources
(Billion bbls)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Shale Gas Resources
(Tcf)
Technically Recoverable Resources, Source: EIA, June 2013
22. 22
Shift from coastal to mid-continent
supply points necessitated “re-
plumbing” the flow of carbon-based
energy in North America
Pipeline reversals, repurposing, new starts
Crude by rail comes of age – born in the Bakken
Waterborne imports being displaced
as shale oil and oil sands production
comes online
Infrastructure built rapidly to help
facilitate new energy movements
The “Re-Plumbing” of Hydrocarbons in North America
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Oil
Sands
Bakken
Eagle
Ford
Permian
Marcellus
Source: EIA, PLG Analysis (Google Earth), April 2014
23. 23
Repurposing and retirement of some
existing pipelines
New natural gas production has localized the
supply of natural gas for certain areas, therefore,
decreasing the need for some existing natural gas
pipelines
Some natural gas pipelines being converted to
crude oil
New natural gas pipelines are being
built to transport natural gas out of
Marcellus
Together the proposedAtlantic Sunrise project
and SabalTrail project would connect Marcellus all
the way to Central Florida
Many other smaller pipeline projects are occurring
to move Marcellus natural gas
Historic reversals of import/export
trade flows
Northeast US-Canadian Maritimes
New Patterns in Natural Gas Supply & Demand
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Natural Gas Movements
24. 24
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
Pipelines from Utica/Marcellus
Mariner East to Marcus Hook, PA for export
MarinerWest exports to Sarnia, ON
ATEX to Mt. Belvieu,TX
Proposed Utica MarcellusTexas Pipeline to Mt.
Belvieu,Texas (conversion of natural gas
pipeline for most of the route)
New NGL export projects
Facility expansions and new construction
projects in Ferndale,WA and Port of Longview,
WA
Further expansions proposed by Enterprise
andTarga in their Gulf Coast export facilities
Phillips 66, EnergyTransfer,
Williams/Boardwalk and Occidental have all
proposed export facilities out of the Gulf Coast
Natural Gas Liquids Pipelines and Export
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: MarkWest, PLG analysis, March 2014
Sarnia, ON
Mt Belvieu, TX
Marcus Hook, PA
Source: RBN Energy, January 2014
25. 25
Basic Facts About Crude Oil – Grades and Qualities
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Heavy/sour
Higher sulfur content, yield for asphalt & diesel
Sources include
Western Canada (largest single play in North America)
Venezuela
Mexico, Alaska North Slope
Middle East (light/sour)
Significant investments made ($48B since 2005) at select
refineries to install coker units that will allow processing of
heavy/sour
Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest and US
Gulf Coast (~2.8 MM bpd demand at USGC)
Light/sweet
Brent,WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken, Permian,
Niobrara, Eagle Ford) are light/sweet
US is close to saturation point on light/sweet crude at mid-
continent and USGC refining areas
Source: RBN Energy
26. 26New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Light/Sweet Crude Logistics
Sources: EIA, PLG analysis (Google Earth)
Pacific
Northwest
Refiners
California
Refiners
2,525
kbpd
PADDV
Demand
Midwest Refiners
3,375
kbpd
PADD II Demand
East Coast
Refiners
PADD I Demand
1,075
kbpd
LA Gulf Coast
Refiners
TX Gulf Coast
Refiners
PADD III
Demand
8,150
kbpd
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Permian
Rail
Pipeline
Marine
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
ANS
Brent
Brent
27. 27New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Sources: EIA, PLG analysis (Google Earth)
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
Pacific
Northwest
Refiners
California
Refiners
2,525
kbpd
PADDV
Demand
Midwest Refiners
3,375
kbpdPADD II Demand
LA Gulf Coast
Refiners
TX Gulf Coast
Refiners
PADD III
Demand
8,150
kbpd
Oil Sands
Heavy/Sour Crude Logistics
Rail
Pipeline
Marine
Mexican Maya
28. 28
Refined Products Market Dynamics
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
U.S. shifted to net exporter of refined
products
Mitigated the impact of declining domestic demand
International demand increasing, especially for diesel
Exports of diesel to Latin America and Europe
Gasoline exports to Latin America
Outlet for increasing domestic crude oil which
cannot be exported without being processed
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
29. 29
All oil sands pipelines are under
intense scrutiny and subject to court
challenges
None of these developments will
proceed at a pace that will match
anticipated production levels
Canadian Oil Producers adopting CBR
as a risk mitigation measure to ensure
access to markets in North America
and offshore
Main driver of crude by rail out of
Western Canada will be delta between
pipeline capacity and crude oil
production
Expect Keystone XL to be built but
with more delays
Western Canada Crude Oil Pipelines
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Likely Built at Some Point
Trans Mountain Express
(Kinder Morgan)
Alberta Clipper (Enbridge)
Keystone XL (TransCanada)
Unlikely
Northern Gateway
(Enbridge)
Energy East
(TransCanada)
30. 30
Large pipeline build toTexas Gulf
Coast
1.45 MMb/d added in 2012-2013 and 1.92
MMb/d to be added in 2014-2015
Large pipeline projects from Cushing
including Keystone Gulf Extension and
Seaway pipelines
Other pipeline projects from Permian,
Eagle Ford, and Midwest
Bakken pipeline export capacity
projected to increase to 715 kbpd
in 2014 from only 280 kbpd in 2010
(NDPA, January 2014)
US Crude Oil Pipelines
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Pipeline Capacity to Texas Gulf Coast
Source: RBN Energy, December 2013
31. 31
Correlation of Operating Rig Count with Sand and Crude Carloads Handled
STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Source: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, March 2014
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2007 Avg. 2008 Avg. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OperatingOnshoreRigs
CarloadsHandled
Operating On Shore Rigs
All Sand Carloads
Petroleum Carloads
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
32. 32
Shale Related RailTraffic Still Small Relative to CoalVolumes
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sand
Crude Coal
Carloads
Quarterly Data
Sand
Crude
Coal
Railcars Handled: Sand, Crude, & Coal
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, February 2014
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
33. 33
The Importance of Price Differentials to Crude by Rail
Differentials made rail attractive
Bakken andWTI differential as high as ~$20/bbl vs. Brent
in 2012
CBR enables producers to sell at trading hubs with higher
benchmarks
Market response: E&P, midstream players
willing to rapidly deploy significant capital to
enable access and capitalize on spreads
Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays and at
destination markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt.
Arthur,TX,Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA)
Lease and purchase of railcar fleets
Refineries install unit train receiving capability
Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to
waterborne imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB,
Washington state)
Pipeline capacity underutilized
Rail captures 73% Bakken takeaway byApril 2013
Differentials are both an incentive – and a risk
– for crude by rail
3Q 2013 a cautionary note
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, January 2014, PLG Analysis
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG Analysis, April 2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mbbl/d ND Crude Production and RailTransport
ND Production Crude by Rail
34. 34
Source: AAR, North Dakota Pipeline Association, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, February 2014
Crude by Rail Statistics
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Petroleum & Petroleum Products (carloads/quarter) Crude Originated (carloads/quarter) Williston Crude by Rail (bbls/day)
Carloads/Quarter Bbls/Day
WTI-Brent
equilibrium
3Q3012
WTI-Brent
equilibrium
3Q3013
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
35. 35
Shale Development and Crude By Rail: Current Market Dynamics
Adverse 3Q 2013 market forces have reversed
WTI-Brent spread now ~$5.50/bbl
CBR rebound driven by Bakken to coasts
Weak long-term outlook for Bakken CBR to USGC
Key driver: LLS now aligned withWTI, not Brent
“Next wave” of CBR development:
Canadian Oil Sands
Terminal investments in Alberta and PADD II and III
Over 1,300 kbbl/day planned AB loading capacity through 2015
NOT like the Bakken – more challenges
Complexities of heavy/sour product handling (steaming, diluent,
unit train challenges)
Fewer destinations
Existing – and growing – mode competition to logical markets
(pipelines and barge)
Tank car market reorienting to coiled/insulated
car types (~2/3 of CBR fleet order backlog)
Source: EIA, April 2014
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Brent vs.WTI Spread ($/bbl)
Source: RBN Energy, April 2014
36. 36New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Crude RailTerminalsThrough 2017
85 load terminals
Largest and most efficient
in Bakken
69 unload terminals
Majority on the Coasts and
Mississippi River
Source: www.CBRforecast.com
37. 37
Bakken and Oil Sands Crude OilTakeaway Forecast
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Source: www.CBRforecast.com
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Base CaseTakeaway (kbpd)
Pipeline
Crude by Rail
Local Refining
38. 38
High Profile Accidents Changing Crude by Rail
Rail industry has a strong safety record, but optics of
CBR accidents are overwhelming any positive statistics
Industry, government, media focus on tank car design
Railroad operating practices, maintenance equally
important
Railroad operating rule changes on hazmat train handling
Increased scrutiny, insurance requirements
Short line and regional railroads in particular
May have consequences in CBR freight rates
Increased product testing, documentation and
traceability (FRA directive)
Oil chemistry varies by well/pad
Concerns with extremely low flash and boiling points
Bakken terminals at varying levels of compliance
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
40. 40
LNG Export Opportunity
Political/policy battle between
domestic industrial users and
producers
Only FERC approved LNG export
terminal is Cheniere Energy’s Sabine
Pass LNG in Sabine, LA
Proposed US LNG ExportTerminals to
FERC (in Bcfd):
There are 12 other US potential export
terminals along with 3 Canadian
proposed sites and 10 other Canadian
potential sites
Supply Sources
Oil Prices
Destination
Markets
Capital
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Data in $US/MMbtu
Source: Waterborne Energy from FERC presentation, February 2014
Location Bcfd Location Bcfd
Freeport, TX 1.8 Lavaca Bay, TX 1.38
Corpus Christi, TX 2.1 Elba Island, GA 0.35
Coos Bay, OR 0.9 Sabine Pass, LA 1.40
Lake Charles, LA 2.2 Lake Charles, LA 1.07
Hackberry, LA 1.7 Plaquemines Parish, LA 1.07
Cove Point, MD 0.82 Sabine Pass, TX 2.1
Astoria, OR 1.25
41. 41New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
Panama Canal Expansion
Has been delayed and now expected at full
capacity by 2016
Current Panamax vessel size excludes all but
10% of LNG vessels from using the canal
After expansion, 80% of LNG fleet will be
able to use the canal with vessel capacities
up to 100 MMcf
Benefits for N.A. LNG Exports
Using the expanded Panama Canal will be a
natural fit for the large number of proposed
Gulf Coast export facilities wanting to reach
the growing Asian LNG market
Trip time cut from 64 days to 44 days,
greatly improving the competitive position
of LNG exports by reducing transportation
cost
Panama Canal Expansion and North American Exports of LNG
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
42. Logistics Engineering Supply Chain
This presentation is available at:
www.plgconsulting.com/category/presentations
-
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please contact:
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+1 (708) 386-0700 / gbrisben@plgconsulting.com
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