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September 12 -14, 2017
Denver, Colorado
5TH FRAC SAND CONFERENCE
Sandonomics ’17
Regionalized Value, Distance
Matters to the DJ and Bakken
Joel Schneyer | Managing Director
Headwaters MB
Taylor Robinson | President
PLG Consulting
Headwaters MB is an independent, middle-market investment banking firm providing strategic merger and acquisitions
advice, capital raising and special situations advisory. Headwaters is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with six
regional offices across the United States and partnerships with 18 firms covering 30 countries.
We have three distinct businesses:
Experience: Investment Banking
Mergers & Acquisitions
• Sell-side advisory
• Buy-side advisory
• Management buyouts
• Fairness opinions
Capital Raising
• Senior debt / Bank debt
• Mezzanine debt
• Equity
• Project finance / Infrastructure
Special Situations Advisory
• Refinancing / Restructuring
• Distressed / Bankruptcy
• Merchant Banking
Headwaters MB has closed
over $8.4 billion in transaction
value.
88%
Privately Owned
60%
M&A Advisory
INVESTMENT
BANK OF THE
YEAR
2015
INVESTMENT
BANK
OF THEYEAR
Page | 2
Partial Client List
PLG Team
 Real-world, industry veterans
 Delivering value to over 200 clients since 2001
 Over 30 logistics, supply chain & engineering experts with
operational leadership experience
Core Expertise
 Bulk commodities
 Rail transportation & logistics
 Energy & chemical markets
 Private equity and corporate development
Services
 Investment strategy, target identification, due diligence,
post-transactional support
 Diagnostic assessments & optimization
 Supply chain design & operational improvement
 Logistics infrastructure design
 Site selection
 Independent logistics technology assessment &
implementation
 Hazmat training, auditing & risk assessment
Experience: Logistics & Supply Chain Consulting
Page | 3
Agenda for DiscussionFour Themes That We Will Discuss Today
I. Intensity
II. Regionalization
III. Bundling
Marginalization
I
II
III
Page | 4
IV
I. Intensity
Onshore Middle East
Offshore Shelf
Extra
Heavy
Oil
Deep
water
Onshore
Russia
Onshore rest of world
Oil
Sands
North
American
ShaleUltra
deepwater
Tight Oil Is Here To Stay: US Competitiveness Continues
Page | 6
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, cited in: IMF. World Economic Outlook - Gaining Momentum? April 2017
Slide created in conjunction with PLG Consulting for joint PLG – Headwaters MB webinar on June 8, 2017
Evolutionary technology adoption and
streamlining of the manufacturing process for
shale oil continues to lower breakeven pricing
Oil Production (million barrels / day)
OilPrice(USD)
Drilling Activity Is On The Upswing, Focused In Sweet Spots
Page | 7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
10/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
10/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
TotalNumberofRigs Weekly Rig Count by Basin
Others Fayetteville Granite Wash Haynesville Mississippian
Barnett Utica Cana Woodford Arkoma Woodford Ardmore Woodford
DJ-Niobrara Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Williston
75% YOY
growth vs.
2016
Source: Baker Hughes, North America Rotary Rig Count Current Week Data, as of July 28, 2017
Slide created in conjunction with PLG Consulting for joint PLG – Headwaters MB webinar on June 8, 2017
OPEC initiated crude
price increase has re-
energized rig count
and drilling &
completions
 Producers utilizing
improved completion
techniques and cost
structures from
downturn
 DUC inventory still
available for quick
production bursts if oil
price surges
Horizontal Wells in Southern Plays Are Driving The Boom
Page | 8
Source: Baker Hughes, North America Rotary Rig Count Current Week Data, as of July 28, 2017
Texas,
NM, & OK
plays
have
~60% of
rig
activity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2/4/2011
4/4/2011
6/4/2011
8/4/2011
10/4/2011
12/4/2011
2/4/2012
4/4/2012
6/4/2012
8/4/2012
10/4/2012
12/4/2012
2/4/2013
4/4/2013
6/4/2013
8/4/2013
10/4/2013
12/4/2013
2/4/2014
4/4/2014
6/4/2014
8/4/2014
10/4/2014
12/4/2014
2/4/2015
4/4/2015
6/4/2015
8/4/2015
10/4/2015
12/4/2015
2/4/2016
4/4/2016
6/4/2016
8/4/2016
10/4/2016
12/4/2016
2/4/2017
4/4/2017
6/4/2017
Proportion of Active Rigs by Trajectory
Horizontal Directional Vertical
> 90% Horizontal
& Directional
Wells
as of July 2017 ….
20% increase
since 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
07/28/17
Horizontal &
Directional Wells
Permian
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Woodford
DJ Niobrara
Williston
Barnett
Marcellus & Utica
Other
Has Productivity Plateaued Permanently?
Productivity increases have continued
beyond expectations due to:
• Exclusively drilling sweet spots (i.e. known
high-production areas)
• Utilizing pad drilling and high intensity
fracking in growing scale
• Learning-by-doing from horizontal drilling
with innovative horizontal drilling
techniques:
• Super fracks using up to 25,000 tons
of sand per well
• Super long laterals up to 18.000 feet
Producers will face headwinds to
further improve productivity because:
• Increased penetration of high efficiency
techniques leave fewer areas to improve
• Oil field services suppliers still are operating
at tight margins – opportunistic price
increases will continue to be requested
• Rising frac sand prices have a growing
impact on the bottom line of producers as
sand per well increases
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, as of August 2017
Page | 9
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17
RigCount
Barrels/Day
Niobrara New Well Oil Production per Rig
Production per rig Rig count
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17
RigCount
Barrels/Day
Permian New Well Oil Production per Rig
Production per rig Rig count
Completion Trends Create New Proppant Demand Drivers
Longer
Laterals
MoreStages
Overpacking
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Sand per Well
(Permian/ Bakken/ Eagle Ford)
CloserWell
Spacing
>2xincrease
2016to2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2014 2016 2017 2018
# Horizontal Wells
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2014 2016 2017 2018
# Active Horizontal
Rigs
• Increase in frac
sizes per stage
• Increased interest
in utilizing finer
mesh sand (40/70
& 100 mesh) & CRC
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (July 2016),
Bloomberg Intelligence
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Permian Williston Eagle Ford
Average Pounds Sand Per
Lateral Foot
2012 2016
Page | 10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Industry Average Proppant per Job
Raw Resin Ceramic
No End in Sight to Growth In Proppant Intensity Per Well
Source: Energent Group as of July 2017
YTD: 4,293 tons/job
N = 9,780 jobs
Tons
High intensity fracking
trend will continue to
expand sand volumes
per well
• 20 to 25% YOY increase
between 2015 and
2016, and projected 15
to 20% YOY increase
during 2017
• Technology leaders
have been advancing
the next generation of
this technique for the
last 2-3 years in both
gas and oil well fracks
(e.g. 25,000 ton super
fracs)
• “Followers” are still
experimenting with
optimization and are 1-
3 years behind the
leaders in implementing
latest techniques
Page | 11
Technology leaders average ~6,400 tons of proppant/job
over the same time period
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
DJ - Niobrara Average Proppant per Job
Raw Resin Ceramic
Tons
YTD: 4,082 tons/job
N = 967 jobs
… With Significant Recent Growth Varying By Basin
Page | 12
Source: Energent Group, as of September 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Marcellus- Utica Williston DJ Niobrara Eagle Ford Permian
AverageProppantConsumedPerFracJob(tons)
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Page | 13
Source: IHS Markit, Energy Blog, May 3 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
MillionTons
Eagle Ford Marcellus/Utica Permian Bakken Anadarko DJ Basin Other US Canada
... Generating Overall Bullish View On Sand Demand
Historical Forecast Oil price assumption remains
the largest underlying driver
DUCs Remain a Wildcard, Adding to Future Demand
Page | 14
Source: EIA May 2017
• High backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs)
will demand proppant at a later date
• Timing independent of rig count – depends on market
inventory, oil prices and availability of pumpers
II. Regionalization
Raw Sand Is The Established Proppant Of Choice
Page | 16
Source: Smart Sand Investor Presentation May 2017
Permian Dune
Raw Sand US Proppant Market Share by Type:
92.7%
3.9%
3.4%
98.6%
0.2%
1.2%
Ceramic
Northern White
Raw Sand
Texas Regional
“Brown” or
“Hickory”
Raw Sand
Resin-Coated
Sand
Raw Resin- Coated Ceramic
2015
2016
2017 YTD
Page | 17
Source: Company websites, Headwaters MB research
Permian Dune Sand Texas Regional “Brown” or “Hickory” Sands Northern White Sand
Black
Mountain
Black
Mountain Unimin FMSA US Silica Unimin FMSA US Silica
40/70 100 40/70
Brady
40/70
Texas Gold
40/70
Premium Hickory
40/70
Unifrac
40/70
White
40/70
White
Winkler, TX Winkler, TX Brady, TX Voca, TX Voca, TX
K Value 7,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 11,000 8,000-9,000 9,000
Sphericity 0.7 0.7 > 0.6 > 0.6 0.6 0.7 - 0.9 0.7 0.6
Roundness > 0.6 > 0.6 > 0.6 > 0.6 0.7 0.7 - 0.9 0.7 0.7
Turbidity < 100 < 100 < 250 < 75 10 - 130 < 100 < 50 10 - 140
Acid Solubility < 3.0% < 3.3% < 3.0% < 2.0% 1.80% < 3.0% < 0.6% 0.80%
Regional Sand Is “Good Enough”
Majority of local/regional mines are
finer grades
Growing Preference for Finer Sand Mesh Sizes
• 80+% of total sand consumed
considered finer grades (i.e. 40/70 &
100 mesh), up from 60+% in 2014
• DJ Niobrara demand for finer grades:
74%
• Bakken demand for finer grades:
59%
Page | 18
Source: IHS Markit
5%
1%
16%
1%
1%
22%
4%
11%
19%
23%
25%
25%
25%
17%
17%
8%
6%
79%
16%
23%
48%
36%
36%
24%
61%
25%
82%
80%
45%
40%
3%
40%
51%
23%
38%
23%
75%
13%
57%
17%
20%
15%
47%
80%
2%
40%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Barnett
DJ Niobrara
Eagle Ford
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Other US
Permian
Piceance
Uinta
US - Average
Canada - Average
20/40 30/50 40/70 100Notes: Coarse grades of sand includes 20/40 and 30/50; fine grades include 40/70
and 100 mesh. Small volumes of secondary categories have been grouped into
similar size primary categories, e.g. 16/30 has been grouped with 20/40.
Northern
White Sand
“Southern”
White Sand
Late
Quaternary
(a.k.a.
Permian)
Dune Sand
Hickory
Sandstone
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Permian
DJ
Bakken
Marcellus -
Utica
Source: EIA, US Geological Survey, Headwaters MB Research
Page | 19
Major Sand Basins Sit Between Lower 48 Shale Plays
Michigan
Sand Dunes
Proximity to DJ Niobrara – Roughly The Same Distance
Page | 20
Hickory
The Frac Frenzy Is Just Getting Started in the DJ – Niobrara
Page | 21
Source: Energent Group as of July 2017
Tight Shale PlayPermit Issued
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
DJ - Niobrara
Average Proppant per Job
Raw
Resin
Tons
YTD: 4,082 tons/job
N = 967 jobs
DJ - Niobrara
Permits Issued in Last 2 Months
Industry Average:
5,250 tons/job
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Stack/SCOOP Niobrara Midland Basin Delaware
Basin
Bakken Eagle Ford Other
DJ Economics Already Compelling in Low Oil Price Environment…
Page | 22
Source: Wall Street Sell-Side Research & Bill Barrett Corporation July 2017 Corporate Update
* assumes $40/bbl NYMEX oil & $2.50/mcf NYMEX gas in 2017-2020
Average = $39.86
… And Trends Toward Longer Laterals Makes For Better Economics
Page | 23
Source: PDC Energy July 2017 JP Morgan Energy Equity Conference
* assumes $40/bbl NYMEX oil & $2.50/mcf NYMEX gas in 2017-2020
Type Well
in DJ Basin
CWC EUR
(gross Mboe)
IRR @
$40/bbl *
PV @
r=10%
ROI
undiscounted
~ 5,000 Ft Lateral $2.5M 490 57% $3.6M 3.5
~ 7,500 Ft Lateral $3.5M 800 79% $6.4M 4.2
~ 10,000 Ft Lateral $4.5M 1,100 91% $8.4M 4.3
III. Bundling
Page | 25
• Increasing their product lines
into resin coated sands to try to
add higher margin products
• Expanding and buying available
capacity, and investing in
regional sands
Diversifying
Product Lines
• Increasing use of unit trains
• Building out or partnering with
transload operators to have
“storefronts” in the shale plays
• Providing the last mile solutions
to the producers, including
containerized shipping solutions
Squeezing
Value
from
Logistics
What Are the Sand Companies Doing To Respond?
The Majors Are Utilizing Idled Capacity & Investing In Regional Mines
Page | 26
Source: HCLP May 2017 Q1 Earnings Call Presentation
Nameplate
Capacity
(mm TPY)
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 April 2017 Q3 2017E Q4 2017E
Wyeville 1.85 Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized
Blair 2.86
Partially
Utilized
Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized
Augusta
2.86 Restart
(Sept.)
Partially
Utilized
Partially
Utilized
Ramp Up Fully Utilized Fully Utilized
Whitehall 2.86 Idle Idle
Restart
(March)
Ramp Up Fully Utilized Fully Utilized
Kermit 3.00 Not Owned Not Owned
Under
Construction
Under
Construction
Ramp Up Fully Utilized
… With Supply Constraints:
- Difficult to obtain operating permits
- Local opposition to new, unpermitted facilities
- Long lead time for design-build phase
Example: Hi-Crush
Logistical Challenges Will Shift To the Right With Local Mines
Materials
Chemicals
Clean Water
Proppants
OCTG (Pipe)
*Railcars to
Transloading
5
From local
wells/reservoir
Avg - 55
Largest - 240
5~8
Trucks to
Wellhead Site
20
9.5 million
gallons / job
**
Avg – 220
Largest - 960
20~32
Avg – 260
Up to 1,000
Truckloads
Oil/Gas/NGLs
Pipeline, Truck,
Rail
Waste Water
Avg – 65
Up to 250
Railcars
Page | 27
* Example is for rail-delivered supply chain ** Horizontal/Directional well average in last 6 months (Energent Group)
Each well drilled requires:
-Heavily dependent on
trucking as well
Source: PLG / Headwaters Analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
HorizontalLandRigs
CarloadsOriginated
U.S. CLASS I QUARTERLY CARLOADS ORIGINATED FOR INDUSTRIAL SAND
AND U.S. HORIZONTAL LAND RIGS
U.S. Quarterly Carloads Originated for Industrial
Sand (STCC 14413)
U.S. Horizontal, Land Rigs
Source: STB (STCC 14413 – Industrial Sand: includes frac sand and other industrial sands), Baker Hughes, May 2017
Shale Gas
Boom
Rail sand volumes will have reduced correlation to overall sand volume as regional sand
with truck delivery continues to grow in coming quarters
Shale Oil
Boom
Oil Price
Collapse
High
Intensity
Fracking
Trucked Regional Sand Decouples the Rig – Rail Sand Rollercoaster
Frac Sand
Frenzy 3.0
Page | 28
• Dense clustering of new sand mines along the Kermit corridor will stress limited local traffic routes
• 30 mm tpy sand demand (45% of 55 mm tpy capacity in area below) = 2.5 million truck trips per year
Trucking Will Be The Logistical Bottleneck In the Permian
Page | 29
Source: Infill Thinking, analysis as of July 20, 2017
High Roller
Alpine
Hi Crush
BM Vest
Preferred Kermit
Preferred Monahans
Atlas
BM El Dorado
Vista
Smart Sand
West Texas Sands
US SilicaMonahans
Page | 30
Water Scarcity May Limit Regional Sand Growth
Source: WRI Aqueduct 2014
Page | 31
… Or Will The Sagebrush Lizard Have the Final Word?
Source: Texas Tribune August 14, 2017; Infill Thinking
Very high incidence of
lizards in the vicinity of
nearly 1/3 of proposed
dune mines may lead
to permitting delays
(or outright no-go's)
Page | 32
''The acquisition of Sandbox aligns with
our strategy of managing the entire
supply chain of frac sand from the mine
to the well site. Containerized delivery
increases transportation efficiency and
lowers delivered costs through faster
truck turns and reduced jobsite
congestion.’’
- U.S. Silica, Inc.
Source: Company web sites and news releases
“Provides a complete service
solution from the mine to your
well site or blender utilizing
PropX products.”
- HiCrush Partners, LP
“Through our vertically integrated
logistics network of transload
terminals and fleet of “last mile”
transport vehicles, Vista’s
customers further benefit from
our mine-to-wellhead frac sand
supply chain solutions and
assured security of supply.”
- Vista Proppants and Logistics, Ltd
“Spanning the entire logistics chain, SES
solves the industry challenges in
proppant procurement and delivery,
straight from the mine to the well site.”
- Source Energy Services
Mine To The Well Site Solutions Usher In New Bundling Era
High Intensity
Fracking
Expanding
… Driving More
Development
with Finer Sand
… Enabling
Regional/Local
Sand Market to
Grow
…Creating
Industry Leaders
Based on
Logistics
Capabilities
• Latest generation of high
intensity can add 25-40%
recovery per well
Tying Trends Together Showcases Market Shift Of Bundling Services
• Local sands will become
the lowest delivered cost,
displacing some current
resources
• Bundling last mile
service solutions is
natural next step for
local sand suppliers
…Low cost local
sand will drive
more high
intensity fracks
• 40/70 & 100 mesh is sold out
through this year, minimizing
resin-coated sand and
ceramics usage
Page | 33
Increased Shale
Oil Production
Flattens/Shrink
Oil Prices
… Which Limits
Sand Volume
Growth
Shale oil is a victim
of its own success
for a second time
BUT
IV. Marginalization
-$50
-$40
-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Hi-Crush P Emerge P US Silica P
Fairmount Santrol P Smart Sand P Source Energy P
TUSK (Taylor/Chieftain) WTI Ave Price
Source: SEC Edgar, SEDAR, Yahoo Finance, Headwaters MB research
Proppant Margins Are Improving
$PerTon Page | 35
• Q2 2017 EBITDA “blended” average margins on old & new contracts were US $5-21/short ton
• Regional sands are positioned to outperform Northern White sands in 2017
Q2 2017
EBITDA US $/Ton Sold
Hi-Crush $12.57/t
Emerge $ 5.41/t
US Silica $20.61/t
Fairmount $14.09/t
Smart Sand $12.17/t
Source Energy $14.59/t
TUSK $ 7.72/t
Adjusted EBITDA US $ / Short Ton
Source: SEC Edgar, Yahoo Finance, Headwaters MB research
… But Company Valuations Are Still At Unsustainable Levels
Page | 36
24.0
8.9
5.76.18.07.8
12.5
21.1
16.814.2
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
2017Q22017Q12016Q42016Q32016Q22016Q12015Q42015Q32015Q22015Q12014Q42014Q32014Q22014Q12013Q4
TEV / LTM (Adjusted) EBITDA
Hi-Crush Emerge US Silica Fairmount Santrol Smart Sand Average
Historical GDF Data Transaction Multiples: 6 – 9x
#1 - 30% effective tax rate &
10% NPV
#2 - assume $50 mm build out
cost per press release
#3 - with contingency payout
based on performance
#4 - assume $23 mm build out
cost per company
presentation
#5 - assume 30% of purchase
price ($28.62 mm) for 5 barge
& 3 rail terminals
Source: Company press releases, Headwaters MB research
Page | 37
Date Buyer Target Amount
Annual
Tons
Capacity
$ / Ton
EBITDA
Margin 1
Sand Type
Jul-16 SLCA NBR $210,000,000 2,000,000 $17.62 TX Regional
Feb-17 HCLP Permian $325,000,000 2 3,000,000 $20.62 TX Regional
Apr-17 EMES Osburn $20,000,000 300,000 $10.15 TX Regional
Aug-16 HCLP HCLP Blair $170,000,000 2,860,000 $8.65 WI Northern White
Aug-16 HCLP HCLP Blair $180,000,000 3 2,860,000 $9.16 WI Northern White
Feb-17 SHLE.TO SP Blair $45,000,000 1,400,000 $5.43 WI Northern White
Feb-17 HCLP HCLP Whitehall $140,000,000 2,860,000 $7.50 WI Northern White
Feb-17 HCLP HCLP Whitehall $205,000,000 3 2,860,000 $11.00 WI Northern White
Mar-17 TUSK Chieftain Sand $36,000,000 1,500,000 $3.94 WI Northern White
Mar-17 TUSK Taylor $105,775,000 4 1,700,000 $9.95 WI Northern White
Aug-17 SLCA Miss Sand $66,780,000 5 1,200,000 $8.75 MO Northern White
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
EBITDAMargin/Ton
Nameplate Capacity – Million Tons Per Year
Recent Sand Transaction Show Valuation Patterns
When does
competition
eliminate
this gap?
Frac Sand Supply Chain – CLAW* WINS!!
Source: Headwaters MB research, PLG Consulting; Preferred Sands S/1
The frac sand supplier must balance the economics of all stages: Cost Landed At Wellhead
from production through to the “Last Mile” of delivery
Operating Costs =
$15 - $30 / ton
(depends on mine quality)
Transload
Facility Fees =
$7 - $20 / ton
(depends on
regional
competition
and product)
Freight + Railcar Leases +
Fuel Surcharges + Logistics =
$30 - $60 / ton
(depends on basin delivered
to and unit train capability)
“Last Mile”
Trucking Costs =
$15 - $50 / ton
(dependent on
distance from
transload facility to
well site, driver
availability, and
truck demurrage)
Mining Processing Rail
Load-out
Long Haul Rail Transloading
and Storage
Trucking to
Well
Note: Transloading may be required for trucking
over ~150 miles from sand mine to wellhead
Northern White
X X X X X X
Regional Sand
X X ? X
Regional Sand is a game changer
Page | 38
Low CLAW Sources Will Displace Current Supplies
Page | 39
Source: Preferred Sands Inc. S/1 filed August 10, 2017 with SEC – page 141
“We believe that this lower CLAW for in-basin facilities will render Northern
White frac sand as incremental supply in Texas, which is expected to
become approximately half of the total proppant market in 2018.”
- Preferred Sands Inc.
* including rail freight expense, railcar lease, demurrage and storage expenses,
transload expense and truck to the well site expense
Eagle Ford Permian
Costs Landed At Wellhead (CLAW) per Ton Sand*
Northern White
In-Basin Regional
CLAW Difference
Page | 40
Source: PLG, Infill Thinking, company investor presentations
Entity
Capacity
(mtpa)
City Basin
High Roller 3.00 Kermit Permian
US Silica 4.00 Crane Permian
Lonestar (Vista Sand) 3.00 Kermit Permian
Black Mountain * 8.00 Kermit Permian
Alpine Silica 3.00 Kermit Permian
Hi-Crush 3.00 Kermit Permian
Aequor Mgt. 3.00 Van Horn Permian
Preferred Sands 3.30 Monahans Permian
Preferred Sands 3.30 Notrees Permian
Fairmont Santrol 3.00 N/A Permian
Badger Mining 3.00 N/A Permian
Delaware Sands 2.00 Clovis Permian
Unimin 5.00 N/A Permian
Atlas Energy * 6.00 N/A Permian
Smart Sand 3.00 N/A Permian
Emerge - Osburn 3.00
San
Antonio
Eagle Ford
Preferred Sands -
Atascoca
3.00 Atacosta Eagle Ford
Total 61.60
* 2 sites
Legend
Recent Concentrated Drilling
2017 Acquisition or
Proposed Frac Sand Mine
Existing Frac Sand Mine (as
of 2016)
Source: PLG Analysis
• All recent mining activity is within 100 miles of Permian & Eagle
Ford drilling
• Previous TX/OK regional sand mines required long truck haul or
short rail haul, sometimes requiring transloading
Localized TX Mine Additions Being Driven By CLAW
Source: PLG Analysis
Agenda for DiscussionTakeaways
I. Proppant Intensity Driving Sand Demand
II. Low CLAW Drives Regionalization
III. Bundling of Logistics & Last Mile Solutions
Marginalization of Northern White Sand
I
II
III
Page | 41
IV
… What Are Your Thoughts?
For follow up questions and information, please contact:
Looking Forward To Your Questions!
Joel Schneyer
Managing Director
Headwaters MB
jschneyer@headwatersmb.com
303.619.4211
Anna Wall
Associate
Headwaters MB
awall@headwatersmb.com
970.580.5096
Taylor Robinson
President
PLG Consulting
trobinson@plgconsulting.com
508.982.1319
Page | 42

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Industrial minerals Events: Sandonomics '17 -Regionalized Value, Distance Matters to..

  • 1. September 12 -14, 2017 Denver, Colorado 5TH FRAC SAND CONFERENCE Sandonomics ’17 Regionalized Value, Distance Matters to the DJ and Bakken Joel Schneyer | Managing Director Headwaters MB Taylor Robinson | President PLG Consulting
  • 2. Headwaters MB is an independent, middle-market investment banking firm providing strategic merger and acquisitions advice, capital raising and special situations advisory. Headwaters is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with six regional offices across the United States and partnerships with 18 firms covering 30 countries. We have three distinct businesses: Experience: Investment Banking Mergers & Acquisitions • Sell-side advisory • Buy-side advisory • Management buyouts • Fairness opinions Capital Raising • Senior debt / Bank debt • Mezzanine debt • Equity • Project finance / Infrastructure Special Situations Advisory • Refinancing / Restructuring • Distressed / Bankruptcy • Merchant Banking Headwaters MB has closed over $8.4 billion in transaction value. 88% Privately Owned 60% M&A Advisory INVESTMENT BANK OF THE YEAR 2015 INVESTMENT BANK OF THEYEAR Page | 2
  • 3. Partial Client List PLG Team  Real-world, industry veterans  Delivering value to over 200 clients since 2001  Over 30 logistics, supply chain & engineering experts with operational leadership experience Core Expertise  Bulk commodities  Rail transportation & logistics  Energy & chemical markets  Private equity and corporate development Services  Investment strategy, target identification, due diligence, post-transactional support  Diagnostic assessments & optimization  Supply chain design & operational improvement  Logistics infrastructure design  Site selection  Independent logistics technology assessment & implementation  Hazmat training, auditing & risk assessment Experience: Logistics & Supply Chain Consulting Page | 3
  • 4. Agenda for DiscussionFour Themes That We Will Discuss Today I. Intensity II. Regionalization III. Bundling Marginalization I II III Page | 4 IV
  • 6. Onshore Middle East Offshore Shelf Extra Heavy Oil Deep water Onshore Russia Onshore rest of world Oil Sands North American ShaleUltra deepwater Tight Oil Is Here To Stay: US Competitiveness Continues Page | 6 Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, cited in: IMF. World Economic Outlook - Gaining Momentum? April 2017 Slide created in conjunction with PLG Consulting for joint PLG – Headwaters MB webinar on June 8, 2017 Evolutionary technology adoption and streamlining of the manufacturing process for shale oil continues to lower breakeven pricing Oil Production (million barrels / day) OilPrice(USD)
  • 7. Drilling Activity Is On The Upswing, Focused In Sweet Spots Page | 7 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 TotalNumberofRigs Weekly Rig Count by Basin Others Fayetteville Granite Wash Haynesville Mississippian Barnett Utica Cana Woodford Arkoma Woodford Ardmore Woodford DJ-Niobrara Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Williston 75% YOY growth vs. 2016 Source: Baker Hughes, North America Rotary Rig Count Current Week Data, as of July 28, 2017 Slide created in conjunction with PLG Consulting for joint PLG – Headwaters MB webinar on June 8, 2017 OPEC initiated crude price increase has re- energized rig count and drilling & completions  Producers utilizing improved completion techniques and cost structures from downturn  DUC inventory still available for quick production bursts if oil price surges
  • 8. Horizontal Wells in Southern Plays Are Driving The Boom Page | 8 Source: Baker Hughes, North America Rotary Rig Count Current Week Data, as of July 28, 2017 Texas, NM, & OK plays have ~60% of rig activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2/4/2011 4/4/2011 6/4/2011 8/4/2011 10/4/2011 12/4/2011 2/4/2012 4/4/2012 6/4/2012 8/4/2012 10/4/2012 12/4/2012 2/4/2013 4/4/2013 6/4/2013 8/4/2013 10/4/2013 12/4/2013 2/4/2014 4/4/2014 6/4/2014 8/4/2014 10/4/2014 12/4/2014 2/4/2015 4/4/2015 6/4/2015 8/4/2015 10/4/2015 12/4/2015 2/4/2016 4/4/2016 6/4/2016 8/4/2016 10/4/2016 12/4/2016 2/4/2017 4/4/2017 6/4/2017 Proportion of Active Rigs by Trajectory Horizontal Directional Vertical > 90% Horizontal & Directional Wells as of July 2017 …. 20% increase since 2011 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 07/28/17 Horizontal & Directional Wells Permian Eagle Ford Haynesville Woodford DJ Niobrara Williston Barnett Marcellus & Utica Other
  • 9. Has Productivity Plateaued Permanently? Productivity increases have continued beyond expectations due to: • Exclusively drilling sweet spots (i.e. known high-production areas) • Utilizing pad drilling and high intensity fracking in growing scale • Learning-by-doing from horizontal drilling with innovative horizontal drilling techniques: • Super fracks using up to 25,000 tons of sand per well • Super long laterals up to 18.000 feet Producers will face headwinds to further improve productivity because: • Increased penetration of high efficiency techniques leave fewer areas to improve • Oil field services suppliers still are operating at tight margins – opportunistic price increases will continue to be requested • Rising frac sand prices have a growing impact on the bottom line of producers as sand per well increases Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, as of August 2017 Page | 9 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17 RigCount Barrels/Day Niobrara New Well Oil Production per Rig Production per rig Rig count - 100 200 300 400 500 600 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17 RigCount Barrels/Day Permian New Well Oil Production per Rig Production per rig Rig count
  • 10. Completion Trends Create New Proppant Demand Drivers Longer Laterals MoreStages Overpacking 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average Sand per Well (Permian/ Bakken/ Eagle Ford) CloserWell Spacing >2xincrease 2016to2018 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2014 2016 2017 2018 # Horizontal Wells 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2014 2016 2017 2018 # Active Horizontal Rigs • Increase in frac sizes per stage • Increased interest in utilizing finer mesh sand (40/70 & 100 mesh) & CRC Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (July 2016), Bloomberg Intelligence 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Permian Williston Eagle Ford Average Pounds Sand Per Lateral Foot 2012 2016 Page | 10
  • 11. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Industry Average Proppant per Job Raw Resin Ceramic No End in Sight to Growth In Proppant Intensity Per Well Source: Energent Group as of July 2017 YTD: 4,293 tons/job N = 9,780 jobs Tons High intensity fracking trend will continue to expand sand volumes per well • 20 to 25% YOY increase between 2015 and 2016, and projected 15 to 20% YOY increase during 2017 • Technology leaders have been advancing the next generation of this technique for the last 2-3 years in both gas and oil well fracks (e.g. 25,000 ton super fracs) • “Followers” are still experimenting with optimization and are 1- 3 years behind the leaders in implementing latest techniques Page | 11 Technology leaders average ~6,400 tons of proppant/job over the same time period 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 DJ - Niobrara Average Proppant per Job Raw Resin Ceramic Tons YTD: 4,082 tons/job N = 967 jobs
  • 12. … With Significant Recent Growth Varying By Basin Page | 12 Source: Energent Group, as of September 2017 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Marcellus- Utica Williston DJ Niobrara Eagle Ford Permian AverageProppantConsumedPerFracJob(tons) Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
  • 13. Page | 13 Source: IHS Markit, Energy Blog, May 3 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MillionTons Eagle Ford Marcellus/Utica Permian Bakken Anadarko DJ Basin Other US Canada ... Generating Overall Bullish View On Sand Demand Historical Forecast Oil price assumption remains the largest underlying driver
  • 14. DUCs Remain a Wildcard, Adding to Future Demand Page | 14 Source: EIA May 2017 • High backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) will demand proppant at a later date • Timing independent of rig count – depends on market inventory, oil prices and availability of pumpers
  • 16. Raw Sand Is The Established Proppant Of Choice Page | 16 Source: Smart Sand Investor Presentation May 2017 Permian Dune Raw Sand US Proppant Market Share by Type: 92.7% 3.9% 3.4% 98.6% 0.2% 1.2% Ceramic Northern White Raw Sand Texas Regional “Brown” or “Hickory” Raw Sand Resin-Coated Sand Raw Resin- Coated Ceramic 2015 2016 2017 YTD
  • 17. Page | 17 Source: Company websites, Headwaters MB research Permian Dune Sand Texas Regional “Brown” or “Hickory” Sands Northern White Sand Black Mountain Black Mountain Unimin FMSA US Silica Unimin FMSA US Silica 40/70 100 40/70 Brady 40/70 Texas Gold 40/70 Premium Hickory 40/70 Unifrac 40/70 White 40/70 White Winkler, TX Winkler, TX Brady, TX Voca, TX Voca, TX K Value 7,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 11,000 8,000-9,000 9,000 Sphericity 0.7 0.7 > 0.6 > 0.6 0.6 0.7 - 0.9 0.7 0.6 Roundness > 0.6 > 0.6 > 0.6 > 0.6 0.7 0.7 - 0.9 0.7 0.7 Turbidity < 100 < 100 < 250 < 75 10 - 130 < 100 < 50 10 - 140 Acid Solubility < 3.0% < 3.3% < 3.0% < 2.0% 1.80% < 3.0% < 0.6% 0.80% Regional Sand Is “Good Enough” Majority of local/regional mines are finer grades
  • 18. Growing Preference for Finer Sand Mesh Sizes • 80+% of total sand consumed considered finer grades (i.e. 40/70 & 100 mesh), up from 60+% in 2014 • DJ Niobrara demand for finer grades: 74% • Bakken demand for finer grades: 59% Page | 18 Source: IHS Markit 5% 1% 16% 1% 1% 22% 4% 11% 19% 23% 25% 25% 25% 17% 17% 8% 6% 79% 16% 23% 48% 36% 36% 24% 61% 25% 82% 80% 45% 40% 3% 40% 51% 23% 38% 23% 75% 13% 57% 17% 20% 15% 47% 80% 2% 40% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Anadarko Appalachia Bakken Barnett DJ Niobrara Eagle Ford Fayetteville Haynesville Other US Permian Piceance Uinta US - Average Canada - Average 20/40 30/50 40/70 100Notes: Coarse grades of sand includes 20/40 and 30/50; fine grades include 40/70 and 100 mesh. Small volumes of secondary categories have been grouped into similar size primary categories, e.g. 16/30 has been grouped with 20/40.
  • 19. Northern White Sand “Southern” White Sand Late Quaternary (a.k.a. Permian) Dune Sand Hickory Sandstone Haynesville Eagle Ford Permian DJ Bakken Marcellus - Utica Source: EIA, US Geological Survey, Headwaters MB Research Page | 19 Major Sand Basins Sit Between Lower 48 Shale Plays Michigan Sand Dunes
  • 20. Proximity to DJ Niobrara – Roughly The Same Distance Page | 20 Hickory
  • 21. The Frac Frenzy Is Just Getting Started in the DJ – Niobrara Page | 21 Source: Energent Group as of July 2017 Tight Shale PlayPermit Issued 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 DJ - Niobrara Average Proppant per Job Raw Resin Tons YTD: 4,082 tons/job N = 967 jobs DJ - Niobrara Permits Issued in Last 2 Months Industry Average: 5,250 tons/job
  • 22. $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 Stack/SCOOP Niobrara Midland Basin Delaware Basin Bakken Eagle Ford Other DJ Economics Already Compelling in Low Oil Price Environment… Page | 22 Source: Wall Street Sell-Side Research & Bill Barrett Corporation July 2017 Corporate Update * assumes $40/bbl NYMEX oil & $2.50/mcf NYMEX gas in 2017-2020 Average = $39.86
  • 23. … And Trends Toward Longer Laterals Makes For Better Economics Page | 23 Source: PDC Energy July 2017 JP Morgan Energy Equity Conference * assumes $40/bbl NYMEX oil & $2.50/mcf NYMEX gas in 2017-2020 Type Well in DJ Basin CWC EUR (gross Mboe) IRR @ $40/bbl * PV @ r=10% ROI undiscounted ~ 5,000 Ft Lateral $2.5M 490 57% $3.6M 3.5 ~ 7,500 Ft Lateral $3.5M 800 79% $6.4M 4.2 ~ 10,000 Ft Lateral $4.5M 1,100 91% $8.4M 4.3
  • 25. Page | 25 • Increasing their product lines into resin coated sands to try to add higher margin products • Expanding and buying available capacity, and investing in regional sands Diversifying Product Lines • Increasing use of unit trains • Building out or partnering with transload operators to have “storefronts” in the shale plays • Providing the last mile solutions to the producers, including containerized shipping solutions Squeezing Value from Logistics What Are the Sand Companies Doing To Respond?
  • 26. The Majors Are Utilizing Idled Capacity & Investing In Regional Mines Page | 26 Source: HCLP May 2017 Q1 Earnings Call Presentation Nameplate Capacity (mm TPY) Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 April 2017 Q3 2017E Q4 2017E Wyeville 1.85 Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Blair 2.86 Partially Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Augusta 2.86 Restart (Sept.) Partially Utilized Partially Utilized Ramp Up Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Whitehall 2.86 Idle Idle Restart (March) Ramp Up Fully Utilized Fully Utilized Kermit 3.00 Not Owned Not Owned Under Construction Under Construction Ramp Up Fully Utilized … With Supply Constraints: - Difficult to obtain operating permits - Local opposition to new, unpermitted facilities - Long lead time for design-build phase Example: Hi-Crush
  • 27. Logistical Challenges Will Shift To the Right With Local Mines Materials Chemicals Clean Water Proppants OCTG (Pipe) *Railcars to Transloading 5 From local wells/reservoir Avg - 55 Largest - 240 5~8 Trucks to Wellhead Site 20 9.5 million gallons / job ** Avg – 220 Largest - 960 20~32 Avg – 260 Up to 1,000 Truckloads Oil/Gas/NGLs Pipeline, Truck, Rail Waste Water Avg – 65 Up to 250 Railcars Page | 27 * Example is for rail-delivered supply chain ** Horizontal/Directional well average in last 6 months (Energent Group) Each well drilled requires: -Heavily dependent on trucking as well Source: PLG / Headwaters Analysis
  • 28. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 HorizontalLandRigs CarloadsOriginated U.S. CLASS I QUARTERLY CARLOADS ORIGINATED FOR INDUSTRIAL SAND AND U.S. HORIZONTAL LAND RIGS U.S. Quarterly Carloads Originated for Industrial Sand (STCC 14413) U.S. Horizontal, Land Rigs Source: STB (STCC 14413 – Industrial Sand: includes frac sand and other industrial sands), Baker Hughes, May 2017 Shale Gas Boom Rail sand volumes will have reduced correlation to overall sand volume as regional sand with truck delivery continues to grow in coming quarters Shale Oil Boom Oil Price Collapse High Intensity Fracking Trucked Regional Sand Decouples the Rig – Rail Sand Rollercoaster Frac Sand Frenzy 3.0 Page | 28
  • 29. • Dense clustering of new sand mines along the Kermit corridor will stress limited local traffic routes • 30 mm tpy sand demand (45% of 55 mm tpy capacity in area below) = 2.5 million truck trips per year Trucking Will Be The Logistical Bottleneck In the Permian Page | 29 Source: Infill Thinking, analysis as of July 20, 2017 High Roller Alpine Hi Crush BM Vest Preferred Kermit Preferred Monahans Atlas BM El Dorado Vista Smart Sand West Texas Sands US SilicaMonahans
  • 30. Page | 30 Water Scarcity May Limit Regional Sand Growth Source: WRI Aqueduct 2014
  • 31. Page | 31 … Or Will The Sagebrush Lizard Have the Final Word? Source: Texas Tribune August 14, 2017; Infill Thinking Very high incidence of lizards in the vicinity of nearly 1/3 of proposed dune mines may lead to permitting delays (or outright no-go's)
  • 32. Page | 32 ''The acquisition of Sandbox aligns with our strategy of managing the entire supply chain of frac sand from the mine to the well site. Containerized delivery increases transportation efficiency and lowers delivered costs through faster truck turns and reduced jobsite congestion.’’ - U.S. Silica, Inc. Source: Company web sites and news releases “Provides a complete service solution from the mine to your well site or blender utilizing PropX products.” - HiCrush Partners, LP “Through our vertically integrated logistics network of transload terminals and fleet of “last mile” transport vehicles, Vista’s customers further benefit from our mine-to-wellhead frac sand supply chain solutions and assured security of supply.” - Vista Proppants and Logistics, Ltd “Spanning the entire logistics chain, SES solves the industry challenges in proppant procurement and delivery, straight from the mine to the well site.” - Source Energy Services Mine To The Well Site Solutions Usher In New Bundling Era
  • 33. High Intensity Fracking Expanding … Driving More Development with Finer Sand … Enabling Regional/Local Sand Market to Grow …Creating Industry Leaders Based on Logistics Capabilities • Latest generation of high intensity can add 25-40% recovery per well Tying Trends Together Showcases Market Shift Of Bundling Services • Local sands will become the lowest delivered cost, displacing some current resources • Bundling last mile service solutions is natural next step for local sand suppliers …Low cost local sand will drive more high intensity fracks • 40/70 & 100 mesh is sold out through this year, minimizing resin-coated sand and ceramics usage Page | 33 Increased Shale Oil Production Flattens/Shrink Oil Prices … Which Limits Sand Volume Growth Shale oil is a victim of its own success for a second time BUT
  • 35. -$50 -$40 -$30 -$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 Hi-Crush P Emerge P US Silica P Fairmount Santrol P Smart Sand P Source Energy P TUSK (Taylor/Chieftain) WTI Ave Price Source: SEC Edgar, SEDAR, Yahoo Finance, Headwaters MB research Proppant Margins Are Improving $PerTon Page | 35 • Q2 2017 EBITDA “blended” average margins on old & new contracts were US $5-21/short ton • Regional sands are positioned to outperform Northern White sands in 2017 Q2 2017 EBITDA US $/Ton Sold Hi-Crush $12.57/t Emerge $ 5.41/t US Silica $20.61/t Fairmount $14.09/t Smart Sand $12.17/t Source Energy $14.59/t TUSK $ 7.72/t Adjusted EBITDA US $ / Short Ton
  • 36. Source: SEC Edgar, Yahoo Finance, Headwaters MB research … But Company Valuations Are Still At Unsustainable Levels Page | 36 24.0 8.9 5.76.18.07.8 12.5 21.1 16.814.2 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 2017Q22017Q12016Q42016Q32016Q22016Q12015Q42015Q32015Q22015Q12014Q42014Q32014Q22014Q12013Q4 TEV / LTM (Adjusted) EBITDA Hi-Crush Emerge US Silica Fairmount Santrol Smart Sand Average Historical GDF Data Transaction Multiples: 6 – 9x
  • 37. #1 - 30% effective tax rate & 10% NPV #2 - assume $50 mm build out cost per press release #3 - with contingency payout based on performance #4 - assume $23 mm build out cost per company presentation #5 - assume 30% of purchase price ($28.62 mm) for 5 barge & 3 rail terminals Source: Company press releases, Headwaters MB research Page | 37 Date Buyer Target Amount Annual Tons Capacity $ / Ton EBITDA Margin 1 Sand Type Jul-16 SLCA NBR $210,000,000 2,000,000 $17.62 TX Regional Feb-17 HCLP Permian $325,000,000 2 3,000,000 $20.62 TX Regional Apr-17 EMES Osburn $20,000,000 300,000 $10.15 TX Regional Aug-16 HCLP HCLP Blair $170,000,000 2,860,000 $8.65 WI Northern White Aug-16 HCLP HCLP Blair $180,000,000 3 2,860,000 $9.16 WI Northern White Feb-17 SHLE.TO SP Blair $45,000,000 1,400,000 $5.43 WI Northern White Feb-17 HCLP HCLP Whitehall $140,000,000 2,860,000 $7.50 WI Northern White Feb-17 HCLP HCLP Whitehall $205,000,000 3 2,860,000 $11.00 WI Northern White Mar-17 TUSK Chieftain Sand $36,000,000 1,500,000 $3.94 WI Northern White Mar-17 TUSK Taylor $105,775,000 4 1,700,000 $9.95 WI Northern White Aug-17 SLCA Miss Sand $66,780,000 5 1,200,000 $8.75 MO Northern White $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 EBITDAMargin/Ton Nameplate Capacity – Million Tons Per Year Recent Sand Transaction Show Valuation Patterns When does competition eliminate this gap?
  • 38. Frac Sand Supply Chain – CLAW* WINS!! Source: Headwaters MB research, PLG Consulting; Preferred Sands S/1 The frac sand supplier must balance the economics of all stages: Cost Landed At Wellhead from production through to the “Last Mile” of delivery Operating Costs = $15 - $30 / ton (depends on mine quality) Transload Facility Fees = $7 - $20 / ton (depends on regional competition and product) Freight + Railcar Leases + Fuel Surcharges + Logistics = $30 - $60 / ton (depends on basin delivered to and unit train capability) “Last Mile” Trucking Costs = $15 - $50 / ton (dependent on distance from transload facility to well site, driver availability, and truck demurrage) Mining Processing Rail Load-out Long Haul Rail Transloading and Storage Trucking to Well Note: Transloading may be required for trucking over ~150 miles from sand mine to wellhead Northern White X X X X X X Regional Sand X X ? X Regional Sand is a game changer Page | 38
  • 39. Low CLAW Sources Will Displace Current Supplies Page | 39 Source: Preferred Sands Inc. S/1 filed August 10, 2017 with SEC – page 141 “We believe that this lower CLAW for in-basin facilities will render Northern White frac sand as incremental supply in Texas, which is expected to become approximately half of the total proppant market in 2018.” - Preferred Sands Inc. * including rail freight expense, railcar lease, demurrage and storage expenses, transload expense and truck to the well site expense Eagle Ford Permian Costs Landed At Wellhead (CLAW) per Ton Sand* Northern White In-Basin Regional CLAW Difference
  • 40. Page | 40 Source: PLG, Infill Thinking, company investor presentations Entity Capacity (mtpa) City Basin High Roller 3.00 Kermit Permian US Silica 4.00 Crane Permian Lonestar (Vista Sand) 3.00 Kermit Permian Black Mountain * 8.00 Kermit Permian Alpine Silica 3.00 Kermit Permian Hi-Crush 3.00 Kermit Permian Aequor Mgt. 3.00 Van Horn Permian Preferred Sands 3.30 Monahans Permian Preferred Sands 3.30 Notrees Permian Fairmont Santrol 3.00 N/A Permian Badger Mining 3.00 N/A Permian Delaware Sands 2.00 Clovis Permian Unimin 5.00 N/A Permian Atlas Energy * 6.00 N/A Permian Smart Sand 3.00 N/A Permian Emerge - Osburn 3.00 San Antonio Eagle Ford Preferred Sands - Atascoca 3.00 Atacosta Eagle Ford Total 61.60 * 2 sites Legend Recent Concentrated Drilling 2017 Acquisition or Proposed Frac Sand Mine Existing Frac Sand Mine (as of 2016) Source: PLG Analysis • All recent mining activity is within 100 miles of Permian & Eagle Ford drilling • Previous TX/OK regional sand mines required long truck haul or short rail haul, sometimes requiring transloading Localized TX Mine Additions Being Driven By CLAW Source: PLG Analysis
  • 41. Agenda for DiscussionTakeaways I. Proppant Intensity Driving Sand Demand II. Low CLAW Drives Regionalization III. Bundling of Logistics & Last Mile Solutions Marginalization of Northern White Sand I II III Page | 41 IV … What Are Your Thoughts?
  • 42. For follow up questions and information, please contact: Looking Forward To Your Questions! Joel Schneyer Managing Director Headwaters MB jschneyer@headwatersmb.com 303.619.4211 Anna Wall Associate Headwaters MB awall@headwatersmb.com 970.580.5096 Taylor Robinson President PLG Consulting trobinson@plgconsulting.com 508.982.1319 Page | 42