SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Evolving	#NoProjects	->	Con5nuous	
Allan	Kelly	-	@allankellynet	
allan@allankelly.net	
Planning	for	Value	
How	much?	When?	
Agile on the Beach
July 2017
relax
Is	this	project	right	for	Agile?	
Or	is	Waterfall	be>er	here?	
Is	this	project	right	for	Kanban?	
Or	is	Scrum	be>er	here?
Who	cares	about	
right?	
Which	will	make	more	
money?
Agile	makes	more	$	£	€	because	it	
delivers	something	sooner
Today’s	Lesson	#1	
A	li>le	bit	Soon	
is	
Worth	more	than	a	lot	
delivered	Later
Today’s	Lesson	#2	
Know	the	Time-Value	Profile	
of	the	thing	you	are	building
Today’s	Lesson	#3	
Deadlines	are	elasSc	by	
value
Agile	folk	get	it	wrong!	
•  Give	more	
opportuniSes	for	
feedback	
•  Tighter	feedback	loops	
•  Allow	for	changing	
requirements	
•  Improve	quality	
•  Reduce	risk	
•  They	increase	value	
•  They	make	more	money	
£€$	
	
(O,	and	reduce	risk,	
improve	quality,	etc.	etc.)	
Regular	deliveries	are	good	because…
20.00%	
20.50%	
21.00%	
21.50%	
22.00%	
22.50%	
23.00%	
23.50%	
24.00%	
24.50%	
25.00%	
$	0	
$	50,000	
$	100,000	
$	150,000	
$	200,000	
$	250,000	
$	300,000	
Big	bang	delivery	 12	monthly	deliveries	
Delivered	in	1	Big	Bang	
NPV	=	$	215,725	
Value/Cost	=	21.57%	
12	monthly	small	bangs	
NPV	=	$	243,359	
Value/Cost	=	24.34%	
$27,000	
2.75%	
$1	million	–	1	year
Value	delivered	
Cost	to	build	
over
“Price	is	what	you	pay.		
Value	is	what	you	get.”	
Warren	Buffet
Which	story	first?	
Value	=	$355,000	
Time	to	delivery	=	
4	weeks		
Value	=	$1,060,000	
Time	to	delivery	=		
6	weeks	
As	a	toy	retailer	I	want	an	app	
that	allows	kids	to	select	from	
my	special	range	so	that	their	
parents	can	buy.	
As	a	toy	retailer	I	want	an	app	
that	allows	kids	to	make	lists	
of	toys	they	want	so	their	
parents	can	buy.
Which	story	first?	
Value	=	$355,000	
Time	to	delivery	=	
4	weeks		
Value	=	$1,060,000	
Time	to	delivery	=		
6	weeks	
As	a	toy	retailer	I	want	an	app	
that	allows	kids	to	select	from	
my	special	HALLOWEEN	range	
so	that	their	parents	can	buy.	
As	a	toy	retailer	I	want	an	app	
that	allows	kids	to	make	lists	
of	toys	they	want	SANTA	TO	
BRING	so	their	parents	can	
buy.	
Today	is	1	September
Time-Value	Profile	
How	does	value	change	over	Ime?	
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Value	over	4	months	
Santa	app	total	value	over	4	months	
Delivery	date	
Total	value	for	a	
given	date	
Total	value	starts	to	fall	
aner	15	September	
To	maximize	value	
deliver	by	15	Sep	1	Sep-13	Oct	
6	weeks
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Value	over	4	months	
Santa	app	total	value	over	4	months	
1	Sep-13	Oct	
6	weeks	 Use	By	Date	
Best	Before	Date
0	
50000	
100000	
150000	
200000	
250000	
300000	
350000	
400000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Product	B	value	over	4	months	
Halloween	app	value	over	4	months	
1	Sep	-	
28	Sep	
4	weeks
0	
50000	
100000	
150000	
200000	
250000	
300000	
350000	
400000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Product	B	value	over	4	months	
Halloween	app	value	over	4	months	
1	Sep	-	
28	Sep	
4	weeks	
Use	By	Date	
Best	Before	Date
Together	
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
1400000	
1600000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Combined	value	from	two	apps	
Santa	app	 Halloween	app
What	do	you	want	to	do?	
A.  Do	Halloween	&	then	Santa	
B.  Do	Santa	&	then	Halloween	
C.  Do	Halloween	&	forget	Santa	
D.  Do	Santa	&	forget	Halloween	
E.  Change	the	esSmates	
F.  Do	both	and	pray	
G.  Add	more	people
Re-use?	
•  How	much	of	Halloween	can	be	reused?	
– How	much	of	Santa	can	be	taken	from	
Halloween?	
•  How	much	extra	does	reusable	code	cost?	
– How	much	Sme	does	reusable	add	to	the	work?	
•  How	much	money	is	lost	by	delay?	
•  How	much	money	is	gained	from	early	
delivery?
Reusability	
increases	
RISK	
Santa	depends	
on	Halloween
What	do	you	want	to	do?	
A.  Do	Halloween	&	forget	Santa	
B.  Do	Santa	&	forget	Halloween	
C.  Do	Halloween	&	then	Santa	
D.  Do	Santa	&	then	Halloween	
E.  Change	the	esSmates	
F.  Do	both	and	pray	
G.  Add	more	people	
H.  Reuse
Santa	first,	Halloween	second	
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
1400000	
1600000	
1	 2	 3	 4	 5	 6	 7	 8	 9	 10	
Combined	value	from	two	apps	
Halloween	app	 Santa	app	
1	Sep-13	Oct	
6	weeks	
13	Oct	
–	9	Nov
Santa	first	
App	makes	$1,025,000	
$35,000	lost	because	it	was	not	ready	by	
13	October	
Halloween	app	makes	$0	
Total	=	$1,025,000
0	
200000	
400000	
600000	
800000	
1000000	
1200000	
1400000	
1600000	
1	 2	 3	 4	 5	 6	 7	 8	 9	 10	
Combined	value	from	two	apps	
Halloween	app	 Santa	app	
1	Sep	-	
28	Sep	
1	Sep-13	Oct	
6	weeks	
28	Sep-9	Nov	
6	weeks	
13	Oct	
–	9	Nov
Halloween	makes	$340,000	
$15,000	lost	because	not	ready	
before	29	September	
Santa	makes	$800,000	
$225,000	lost	because	it	is	not	ready	
unSl	10	November	
	
Halloween	first
Halloween	comes	first	
Santa	first	
Total	=	$1,025,000	
Halloween	first	
Total	=	$1,140,000	
$115,000	more
Opportunity	Cost	of	Delay	
•  Extra	costs	incurred	because	delivery	is	late	
– e.g.	temporary	staff,	priority	shipping,	penalty	
fines	
•  Value	foregone:		
– Lost	revenue	opportuniSes	
– Not	being	in	the	market	(less	Sme	on	sale)	
– Not	being	available	before	criScal	date	
– Not	being	in	the	market	before	compeStors
Time	is	money?	
More	Sme	->	More	costs	
More	Sme	->	Less	revenue	
	
(Usually)	Revenue	is	inversely	proporSonal	to	
Sme	to	delivery
Opportunity	Cost	of	Delay	
“6	month	delay	can	be	worth	33%	of	life	
cycle	profits”	
McKinsey	(Reinertsen)	1983	
Principles	of	Product	Development	
Reinertsen,		2009
Deadlines	are	analogue	
Different	dates	result	in	different	
values	
Deadlines	are	not	binary		
(all	or	nothing)
I	need	this	and	I	need	it	
YESTERDAY
Yesterday…	
0	
200	
400	
600	
800	
1000	
1200	
Yesterday	 Today	 Tomorrow	
Best	Before	Date	
Use	By	Date
I	need	this	and	I	need	it	
YESTERDAY	
O	dear,	I	don’t	have	a		
TARDIS	(Sme	machine)	but		
maybe	I	can	get	something	for	you	
tomorrow?	
Brilliant,	I	knew	I	could	count	
on	you	
If	all	the	value	accrued	
yesterday	then	it	is	lost	
If	value	sSll	exists	then	it	
might	be	worth	doing
How	do	you	get	to	value?	
•  Ask	your	stakeholders	
•  Do	the	analysis	
•  EsSmate
Value	Poker	
Like	Planning	Poker	
•  Value	points	not	Effort	points
10,000	
8,000	
Do	now	 Do	soon	 Do	later	
5,000	
Best	before	
+1mth	
Best	before	
+6mths	
Best	before	
+3mths
Time-Value	Profile	is	an	
input	to	planning	
0	
50000	
100000	
150000	
200000	
250000	
300000	
350000	
400000	
Sep	1	 Sep	15	 Sep	29	 Oct	13	 Oct	27	 Nov	10	 Nov	24	 Dec	8	 Dec	22	 Jan	5	
Product	B	value	over	4	months
SoluSons	must	be	built	to:	
a)  Obtain	as	much	of	the	value	as	possible	
b)  Within	some	Sme	frame	
c)  For	a	cost	which	leaves	some	profit	
How	much	profit	is	made	
and		
How	much	value	is	extracted		
are	negoIable.
Know	the	Time-Value	profile	
Know	your	target	profit	
Know	how	much	you	can	spend	
Work	back	to	date	&	burn	rate	
Engineer,	engineer
Allan	Kelly…	
Ø ConsulSng	on	sonware	development	&	strategy	
Ø Training	for	Agile	
Author	
–  LiSle	Book	of	Requirements	&	User	Stories	(2016)	
h>p://www.leanpub.com/userstories	
–  Xanpan:	Team	Centric	Agile	Sonware	Development	(2014)	
h>ps://leanpub.com/xanpan	
–  Business	PaSerns	for	SoXware	Developers	(2012)	
–  Changing	Sonware	Development	(2008)
More…	
www.allankelly.net
LeanPub		
h>ps://leanpub.com/cdigital	
1.  A	li>le	soon	is	worth	more	than	
a	lot	later	
2.  Know	the	Sme-value	profile	
3.  Deadlines	are	elasSc	by	value	
	
allan@allankelly.net	
Twi>er:	@allankellynet	
½price	code:	
AOTB2017	
48	hours

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Planning for Value: How much? When?