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Project Agrippa H4D 2021 Lessons Learned

business model, business model canvas, mission model, mission model canvas, customer development, hacking for defense, H4D, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, startup, steve blank, pete newell, bmnt, entrepreneurship, I-Corps, Security, NSIN, A2AD,PACFLT, INDOPACOM, MEF, EABO, Joe Felter, Navy, DOD

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Project Agrippa H4D 2021 Lessons Learned

  1. David Hoyt - JD Stanford Law ‘20 - MBA Stanford GSB ‘20 - BA International Relations ‘13 Jonathan Deemer - JD Stanford Law ‘23 - MA International Policy ‘23 - BA International Relations - BS Business Administration Jack Carney - BA Economics ‘21 William Healzer - BA Political Science ‘22 - BA History ‘22 Kyle Duchynski - MS MS&E ‘22 - BA Economics & International Security Studies ‘21 Final Problem Statement To retain credible conventional deterrence against the PRC in the Indo- Pacific, U.S. joint forces must employ a distributed, survivable force to impose increased costs for the PRC. This strategy depends on distributed, covert, low- cost logistics systems that can survive within the weapons engagement zone. Original Problem Statement The United States Navy needs new operational concepts to incorporate emerging technologies in order to successfully compete and deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Military Mentor: CDR Jeff Vanak Business Mentor: Marco Romani Business Mentor: Rachel Costello Project Sponsor: Dr. Jason Stack TOTAL INTERVIEWS: 242 Portions redacted at request of stakeholders
  2. Agrippa’s Origin Story Stanford’s Technology, Innovation, and Modern War last fall emphasized competiton isn’t just technology—it is how you employ it Our group sought to pioneer a novel Hacking for Strategy course model, using the Lean methodology for future Concepts of Operations 8 weeks later Pacific Fleet Command requested we redact portions of our brief This is Project Agrippa’s story
  3. Agrippa Starting point—the library Original Hypothesis to test: Exquisite, legacy U.S. maritime platforms cannot survive within the weapons engagement zone (“WEZ”), eroding conventional U.S. deterrence WEEK 1 MVP: Warfare is going undersea 1 “Whenever you face a new problem, it is time to crack open an old book” - Submarine Captain The team read over 30 books to understand the problem
  4. Understanding the PRC Threat in the Indo-Pacific A2/AD Research Sprint Created open-source satellite imagery maps of A2/AD ecosystem WEEK 2 MVP takeaway: A2/AD threat is real and credible 2
  5. Agrippa Selects the Marine Corps’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) Concept for Further Study EABO Counters A2/AD EABO provides U.S. maritime forces with a distributed and survivable force able to impose costs on the PRC within the A2/AD threat environment Agrippa crafts its own EABO implementation map Agrippa followed Gen. Berger’s EABO remarks 3 REDACTED
  6. 3 Then the Marines Called Us
  7. Sustainment is an unsolved pain point III MEF (Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Okinawa) [There is a] “Critical shortage of military shipping—Gotta bring a lot of cash … Here in the Pacific, would think we have a lot more ships, but we don’t.” “To even move anything to Ishima was 2.5 weeks of paperwork just to get barges and ferries paid for, [and] weeks of emergency classes.” “We have to start thinking out of the box—not just military vessels and planes… The drug cartels know what they are doing smuggling across borders. ... [We are] Starting to research this.” “Need cheap, survivable, small vessels … [but] everyone is hesitant to buy a new asset for the Navy & the Marine Corps defense budget.”
  8. Agrippa rapidly pivoted to focus on EABO logistics Logistics is the Achilles Heel for America in the Indo-Pacific 3
  9. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, ASD(IPSA), J7 ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ INDOPACOM HQ ○ Naval Base Guam ○ U.S. Forces Japan ○ ONR Offices KEY RESOURCES ● Access to Stanford- based experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem set ● Desire to make a difference for our country VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Assessment of vulnerabilities and avenues for strategic advantage for the Navy, particularly in the underwater space. ● Assessment of future undersea competition incorporating relevant state and non-state actor objectives and technological advances ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the problem sets facing the Navy and incorporating the Lean Launchpad methodology to create novel and dynamic strategic concepts. MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve Navy’s ability to adapt to future of naval warfare ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy and/or Navy Strategic Documents ● Inform ONR research agenda and funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 2-19-21 Version:1.0 BENEFICIARIES Primary - U.S. Navy resources within INDOPACOM (U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, DoD employees) Secondary - Military Sealift Command and global U.S. military forces Tertiary - U.S. regional allies and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) ○ Provide ongoing feedback on deliverable ● H4D Teaching Team ○ Provide ongoing advice and stress-test ideas KEY ACTIVITIES ● Scope problem ○ Must first understand full problem set Navy is facing ● Devise potential solutions ○ Get outside the building and think creatively ● Stress test ideas ○ Get feedback from sponsor and other experts ● Synthesize learnings ● Iterate with problem sponsor BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval research enterprise, including ONR, Naval Research Lab, etc. to devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts
  10. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, J7, ASD(IPSA), NPS ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to Stanford-based academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem set MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ Navy’s ability to adapt to future of naval warfare PLA A2/AD capabilities ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and/or Navy Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-06-21 Version:1.2 Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] ○ Provide ongoing feedback on deliverable ● INDOPACOM ● H4D Teaching Team ○ Provide ongoing advice and stress-test ideas BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning research enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, Joint Staff Naval Research Lab, etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts BENEFICIARIES Primary - U.S. Navy resources within INDOPACOM (U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, DoD employees) PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5) Secondary - Military Sealift Command and global U.S. military forces INDOPACOM (J- 3, J-5, J-8); U.S. Marine Forces Pacific Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9), Joint Staff (J-3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, ROK) and partners KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand A2/AD impacts on U.S. strategy and capabilities ● Scope Select aspect of broad problem to focus research ○ Must first understand full problem set Navy is facing ● Devise potential solutions ○ Get outside the building and think creatively ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ● Stress test ideas Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Synthesize learnings ● Iterate solutions with problem sponsor MISSION BUDGET/COST ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software/Board Games ○ Zotero ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ ONR Office ○ San Diego Naval Facilities ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ Camp H.M. Smith VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem sets facing the Navy and incorporating the Lean Launchpad methodology to create novel and dynamic strategic operational concepts / strategies. ● Further value propositions TBD until specific aspect of A2/AD problem selected ● Assessment of vulnerabilities and avenues for strategic advantage the Navy, particularly in the unmanned / undersea space. ● Assessment of future unmanned / undersea competition incorporating relevant state and non-state actor objectives and technological advances 3 The team scrapped its original mission model canvas and restarted
  11. “If we are fully mobilized on day 0 of fighting, by day 3-4 it becomes a logistical challenge.” Office for the Under Secretary of Defense - Policy “You could drive a truck through the holes in EABO sustainment.” Pacific Fleet Command “What we consider with respect to naval dominance has gotten lazy about sustainment capabilities— what can barely sustain us in peacetime falls apart against a peer threat.” Department of the Navy “[Navy] Will not risk experimentation with logistics because it will mean they won’t meet certification objectives and deploy on time” Office of Naval Research Our pivot to logistics proved prescient
  12. Team morale plummeted as the scope of logistical problems increased But our resolve hardened The U.S. might lose a war with China because of logistics
  13. Distributed lethality meets logistics Logistics must also become decentralized, attritible, and discrete to increase survivability of U.S. assets, impose costs on the PRC, paralyze the PRC’s OODA loop, and ultimately decrease PRC lethality Distributed logistics is a tactical enabler that supports strategic deterrence
  14. New Platforms to Decentralize Logistics Low-Profile Vessels & REDACTED 4 Agrippa called submarine experts, REDACTED, and the REDACTED to figure out how narcosubs work REDACTED ● “Narco-subs” provide discrete, attritible resupply to EABs ● REDACTED
  15. But how would these Low-Profile Vessels (LPVs) work?
  16. Technical specifications determined by: 1. Arbitrarily define requirements; 2. Ask for feedback from SMEs; 3. Refine across 50+ interviews
  17. Proposed LPV Platform Capabilities Agrippa’s interview flywheel produced high-level specs for our LPV 5 REDACTED
  18. KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-27-21 Version:1.5 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak), 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron), INDOPACOM (J-3 (RADM LeClair), J-5 (Dr. Allen Hjelmfelt), J-8); 3rd MEF Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5 (Bob Hein)), MARFORPAC Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9 (Michael Stewart), Joint Staff (J- 3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, PHL) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts MISSION BUDGET/COST MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, Naval Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Determine form of final deliverable ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ Zotero ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ Camp H.M. Smith ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Design CONOPs for existing ONR Division 331’s R&D priorities ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● Must understand whether POEs, SYSCOMs, & PORs are allies or antibodies 6 Agrippa shifts from ‘good ideas’ to implementation
  19. Establishing Stakeholder Buy-in in a 350,000+ Person Org 7
  20. Establishing Stakeholder Buy-in in a 350,000+ Person Org 7 INDOPACOM, Pacific Fleet, and Marine Forces Pacific are key end beneficiaries
  21. Establishing Stakeholder Buy-in in a 350,000+ Person Org 7 The acquisition arm of the Department of the Navy is also essential
  22. To convince our stakeholders, we chose to get out of the building Jack Carney untangled the DoD bureaucracy, cold calling 100+ officials and inviting them for outbriefs
  23. DLA - Indo Pacific Commander, Deputy Commander, Chief of Staff (on their day off) 4 cities, 6 bases, 100+ officials, 1 week 18 MEDCOM I MEF G2, G35, G4, G5 INDOPACOM J00, J46, J5, J9, CNA, ONR, SOCPAC MARFORPAC G4, G5, G8, G9, ONR, J46 PACFLT N4, N5, N8, N9, ONR, SOCPAC, CAG NSWC N4, N5, N9, ONR OPNAV N7 Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (Ret.)
  24. Final MVP - Brief Designed for Identified Stakeholders [1] The A2/AD Problem [2] EABO Concept [3] LPV OV-1 [4] Platform Operational Math [5] Supplemental Technology [6] Concept Implementation [7] Stakeholder Deployment REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED
  25. Final MVP - Brief Designed for Identified Stakeholders [1] The A2/AD Problem [2] EABO Concept [3] Connector Platform OV-1 [4] Platform Operational Math [5] Supplemental Technology [6] Concept Implementation [7] Stakeholder Deployment REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED “This is the best brief we have seen in 3 years. … Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman come and pitch us but your presentation was better.” U.S. Pacific Fleet
  26. Agrippa Continues Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Office of Naval Research Marine Corp Warfightin g Laboratory Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Summer Out Briefs: Follow-on Work For: United States Pacific Fleet Marine Corps Forces Pacific Office of Naval Research NavalX Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Defense Logistics Agency Indo- Pacific United States Indo- Pacific Command Naval Special Warfare Command
  27. It is imperative America gets competition with the PRC right The stakes could not be higher
  28. Hacking for Strategy “The process you used is more important than the product” - ADM Scott Swift (ret.) ● Hacking 4 Strategy: Follow-on Stanford teams working on strategy & operational concepts projects to solve problems recommended by sponsors ● Get involved: Sponsor teams, join our affiliate network, attend our programming ● David Hoyt is the point of contact dhoyt@stanford.edu
  29. Mission Model Canvas Slides
  30. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, ASD(IPSA), J7 ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ INDOPACOM HQ ○ Naval Base Guam ○ U.S. Forces Japan ○ ONR Offices KEY RESOURCES ● Access to Stanford- based experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem set ● Desire to make a difference for our country VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Assessment of vulnerabilities and avenues for strategic advantage for the Navy, particularly in the underwater space. ● Assessment of future undersea competition incorporating relevant state and non-state actor objectives and technological advances ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the problem sets facing the Navy and incorporating the Lean Launchpad methodology to create novel and dynamic strategic concepts. MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve Navy’s ability to adapt to future of naval warfare ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy and/or Navy Strategic Documents ● Inform ONR research agenda and funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 2-19-21 Version:1.0 BENEFICIARIES Primary - U.S. Navy resources within INDOPACOM (U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, DoD employees) Secondary - Military Sealift Command and global U.S. military forces Tertiary - U.S. regional allies and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) ○ Provide ongoing feedback on deliverable ● H4D Teaching Team ○ Provide ongoing advice and stress-test ideas KEY ACTIVITIES ● Scope problem ○ Must first understand full problem set Navy is facing ● Devise potential solutions ○ Get outside the building and think creatively ● Stress test ideas ○ Get feedback from sponsor and other experts ● Synthesize learnings ● Iterate with problem sponsor BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval research enterprise, including ONR, Naval Research Lab, etc. to devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts
  31. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, ASD(IPSA), J7 ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ San Diego Naval Facilities ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ INDOPACOM HQ ○ ONR Offices KEY RESOURCES ● Access to Stanford- based experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem set ● Desire to make a difference for our country ● Large literature review VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Assessment of vulnerabilities and avenues for strategic advantage for the Navy, particularly in the unmanned / undersea space. ● Assessment of future unmanned / undersea competition incorporating relevant state and non-state actor objectives and technological advances ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the problem sets facing the Navy and incorporating the Lean Launchpad methodology to create novel and dynamic strategic concepts. MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve Navy’s ability to adapt to future of naval warfare ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy and/or Navy Strategic Documents ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 03-30-21 Version:1.1 BENEFICIARIES Primary - U.S. Navy resources within INDOPACOM (U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, DoD employees) Secondary - Military Sealift Command and global U.S. military forces Tertiary - U.S. regional allies and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) ○ Provide ongoing feedback on deliverable ● INDOPACOM ● H4D Teaching Team ○ Provide ongoing advice and stress-test ideas KEY ACTIVITIES ● Scope problem ○ Must first understand full problem set Navy is facing ● Devise potential solutions ○ Get outside the building and think creatively ● Stress test ideas ○ Get feedback from sponsor and other experts ● Synthesize learnings ● Iterate with problem sponsor BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval research enterprise, including ONR, Naval Research Lab, etc. to devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts ● Research Resources ○ Zotero ○ Wargaming Software/Board Games ○ Books
  32. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, J7, ASD(IPSA), NPS ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to Stanford-based academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem set MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ Navy’s ability to adapt to future of naval warfare PLA A2/AD capabilities ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and/or Navy Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-06-21 Version:1.2 BENEFICIARIES Primary - U.S. Navy resources within INDOPACOM (U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, DoD employees) PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5) Secondary - Military Sealift Command and global U.S. military forces INDOPACOM (J- 3, J-5, J-8); U.S. Marine Forces Pacific Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9), Joint Staff (J-3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, ROK) and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] ○ Provide ongoing feedback on deliverable ● INDOPACOM ● H4D Teaching Team ○ Provide ongoing advice and stress-test ideas BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning research enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, Joint Staff Naval Research Lab, etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand A2/AD impacts on U.S. strategy and capabilities ● Scope Select aspect of broad problem to focus research ○ Must first understand full problem set Navy is facing ● Devise potential solutions ○ Get outside the building and think creatively ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ● Stress test ideas Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Synthesize learnings ● Iterate solutions with problem sponsor ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software/Board Games ○ Zotero ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ ONR Office ○ San Diego Naval Facilities ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ Camp H.M. Smith VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem sets facing the Navy and incorporating the Lean Launchpad methodology to create novel and dynamic strategic operational concepts / strategies. ● Further value propositions TBD until specific aspect of A2/AD problem selected ● Assessment of vulnerabilities and avenues for strategic advantage the Navy, particularly in the unmanned / undersea space. ● Assessment of future unmanned / undersea competition incorporating relevant state and non-state actor objectives and technological advances
  33. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, MARFORPAC, J7, ASD(IPSA), NPS ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs through sustained EABO operations ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, Navaly Strategic Documents, and/or O- Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-13-21 Version:1.3 BENEFICIARIES Primary - INDOPACOM (J-3, J-5, J-8); U.S. Marine Forces Pacific PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N- 3, N-5) Secondary - INDOPACOM (J-3, J- 5, J-8); U.S. Marine Forces Pacific PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5) Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9), Joint Staff (J-3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, ROK, IDN, PHL) and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies impacts on U.S. strategy and capabilities ● Select aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ Zotero ○ USNWC subscription ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ ONR Office ○ San Diego Naval Facilities ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ Camp H.M. Smith VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem sets facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Further value propositions TBD until specific aspect of A2/AD problem selected ● Design CONOPs for existing ONR Division 331’s R&D priorities
  34. DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, J7, ASD(IPSA), NPS ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs through by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, Naval Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-20-21 Version:1.4 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak), 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron), INDOPACOM (J-3, J-5, J-8); MARFORPAC, 3rd MEF Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5), MARFORPAC Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9), Joint Staff (J-3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, ROK, IDN, PHL) and partners Fill this in! See our guide (posted on the website) for more information. Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy in from existing naval operational infrastructure to implement new operational concepts ● Need support of JPN and PHL governments KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ Zotero ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) ○ ONR Office ○ San Diego Naval Facilities ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ Camp H.M. Smith VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem sets facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Design CONOPs for existing ONR Division 331’s R&D priorities ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality
  35. MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, Naval Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 04-27-21 Version:1.5 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak), 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron), INDOPACOM (J-3 (RADM LeClair), J-5 (Dr. Allen Hjelmfelt), J-8); 3rd MEF Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N-8, N-9, N04: N-3, N-5 (Bob Hein)), MARFORPAC Tertiary - OPNAV (N-7, N-9 (Michael Stewart), Joint Staff (J- 3, J-5, J-7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan, PHL) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● Must understand whether POEs, SYSCOMs, & PORs are allies or antibodies KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Determine form of final deliverable ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ Zotero ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ Camp H.M. Smith ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Design CONOPs for existing ONR Division 331’s R&D priorities ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, PACFLT, INDOPACOM, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language
  36. MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and Naval Strategic Documents, and/or O-Plans ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 05-04-21 Version: 1.6 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak); 3rd MEF (LtGen Clardy); 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron); INDOPACOM (J3 (RADM LeClair), J5 (Dr. Hjelmfelt), J8); Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N4, N8, N9, N04: N3, N5 (Bob Hein), N53); MARFORPAC (G3/5/7, G35, G9); Tertiary - OPNAV (N7, N9 (Michael Stewart)), Joint Staff (J3, J5, J7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● Must understand whether POEs, SYSCOMs, & PORs are allies or antibodies KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ Strategy vs. Operational concepts ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Determine form of final deliverable ● Create comprehensive org charts to map key partners, stakeholders, and beneficiaries ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ Camp H.M. Smith ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff ○ 18th MEDCOM ○ Naval Supply SYSCOM VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Design CONOPs for existing ONR Division 331’s R&D priorities ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries ● Identify entit(ies) responsible for disconnect between researchers and planners DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, INDOPACOM, PACFLT, 7th Fleet, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, USMC CD&I, OPNAV ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language
  37. MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and Naval Strategic Documents, ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 05-11-21 Version: 1.7 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak); 3rd MEF (LtGen Clardy); 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron); INDOPACOM (J3 (RADM LeClair), J5 (Dr. HjelmfeltMajGen Sklenka), J8); Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N4, N8, N9, N04: N3, N5 (Bob Hein), N53); MARFORPAC (G3/5/7, G35, G9); Tertiary - OPNAV (N7, N9 (Michael Stewart)), Joint Staff (J3, J5, J7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● For CONOPs, need INDOPACOM J4 to reach the J3, convince CoCOM to push down and across KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Determine form of final deliverable ● Create comprehensive org charts to map key partners, stakeholders, and beneficiaries ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential Site Visits (contingent on COVID) to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff ○ 18th MEDCOM ○ Naval Supply SYSCOM ○ NSWC HQ VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries ● Identify entit(ies) responsible for disconnect between researchers and planners ● Serve as a case study for how CONOPs flow through its lifetime, from origination to implementation DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, INDOPACOM, PACFLT, 7th Fleet, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, USMC CD&I, OPNAV ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language
  38. MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and Naval Strategic Documents, ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 05-18-21 Version: 1.8 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak); 3rd MEF (LtGen Clardy); 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron); INDOPACOM (J3 (RADM LeClair), J5 (MajGen Sklenka), J8); Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N4, N8, N9, N04: N3, N5 (Bob Hein), N53); MARFORPAC (G3/4/5/7, G35, G9); Tertiary - OPNAV (N7, N9 (Michael Stewart)), Joint Staff (J3, J5, J7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● For CONOPs, need INDOPACOM J4 to reach the J3, convince CoCOM to push down and across KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Create comprehensive org charts to map key partners, stakeholders, and beneficiaries ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential entities to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff ○ 18th MEDCOM ○ Naval Supply SYSCOM ○ NSWC HQ ○ MARFORPAC/MCWL VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries ● Identify entit(ies) responsible for disconnect between researchers and planners ● Serve as a case study for how CONOPs flow through its lifetime, from origination to implementation DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, INDOPACOM, PACFLT, 7th Fleet, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, USMC CD&I, OPNAV ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language
  39. MISSION BUDGET/COST KEY PARTNERS ● Office of Naval Research (ONR) [Sponsor] KEY RESOURCES ● Large literature review (1000+ pages a week) ● Access to academic & military experts ● Fresh perspectives on problem ● Google Earth Suite & Open- Source Research ● Command (software) ● Lightning Press SMARTbooks MISSION ACHIEVEMENT/IMPACT FACTORS ● Improve U.S. maritime forces’ ability to adapt to PLA A2/AD capabilities and impose costs by supporting a distributed and survivable logistics network to sustain the USMC EABO ● Operational Concept Adoption/Incorporation of Operational Concepts into National Defense Strategy, and Naval Strategic Documents, ● Inform ONR research agenda and NDAA funding priorities ● Push novel CONOPs through the DoD research, procurement, and planning ecosystem to accelerate the pace of change toward solution Designed by: Project Agrippa Date: 05-25-21 Version: 1.9 BENEFICIARIES Primary - 31st MEU (LtCol Nak); 3rd MEF (LtGen Clardy); 7th Fleet (CAPT LeBron); INDOPACOM (J3 (RADM LeClair), J5 (MajGen Sklenka), J8); Secondary - PACFLT (N03: N4, N8, N9, N04: N3, N5 (Bob Hein), N53); MARFORPAC (G3/4/5/7, G35, G9); Tertiary - OPNAV (N7, N9 (Michael Stewart)), Joint Staff (J3, J5, J7); U.S. regional allies (especially Japan) and partners (PHL) Mission/Problem Description: New Naval Operational Concepts BUY-IN & SUPPORT ● Needs support from existing naval operations planning enterprise, including PACFLT, INDOPACOM, OPNAV, MARFORPAC, Joint Staff etc. to research & devise solution ● Need buy-in from naval research organizations to identify, fund, and develop new technologies and prototype them ● Defense industry’s role in selecting and expediting programs is integral ● EABO Concept needs support of JPN and PHL governments ● For CONOPs, need INDOPACOM J4 to reach the J3, convince CoCOM to push down and across KEY ACTIVITIES ● Broad Problem: Understand U.S. vulnerabilities to A2/AD and cost imposition response strategies ● Selected logistics for EABO as discrete aspect of broad problem to focus research ● Devise potential solutions ○ EABO combat logistics, exquisite resupply at standoff distance ○ Management strategies, push operations, software for logistics ● Get feedback from sponsor & experts on solution efficacy & weaknesses ● Iterate solutions ● Create comprehensive org charts to map key partners, stakeholders, and beneficiaries ● Research Resources ○ Books ○ Wargaming Software (Command)/Games ○ USNWC subscription ○ Janes Defense Group ● Potential entities to brief final deliverable: ○ Naval Postgraduate School ○ San Diego Naval & USMC Facilities ○ INDOPACOM ○ ONR Office ○ Congressional Offices / Staff ○ 18th MEDCOM ○ Naval Supply SYSCOM ○ NSWC HQ ○ MARFORPAC/MCWL VALUE PROPOSITIONS ● Synthesis of the many perspectives of the A2/AD problem set facing the Navy to create novel operational concepts / strategies. ● Provide a coherent CONOP for distributed logistics to sustain distributed lethality ● Cross-pollinate novel solutions across DoD and external experts to break down information silos ● Explore NDAA amendment to empower beneficiaries ● Identify entit(ies) responsible for disconnect between researchers and planners ● Serve as a case study for how CONOPs flow through its lifetime, from origination to implementation DEPLOYMENT ● Findings and suggestions would be shared with ONR, INDOPACOM, PACFLT, 7th Fleet, MARFORPAC, 31st MEU, USMC CD&I, OPNAV ● Initial testing of concepts through wargaming simulation software & CAPE validation ● Eventual scaling to maritime training exercises ● May require funding or statutory NDAA amendment language
  40. Appendix 1 Project Agrippa Team
  41. UNDISCLOSED LOCATION AND DATE
  42. UNDISCLOSED DATE
  43. What We’ve Done So Far Where We’re Going Next Agrippa’s Journey!

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