Public Sector Research Priorities for Sustainable Food Security by Gerald Nelson, IFPRI and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, FAO at the Food Security Futures I Conference, on 11 April 2013 in Dublin, Ireland.
This document outlines priorities for public sector research on food security and nutrition. It notes that 850 million people are undernourished, 28% of children are stunted, and 2 billion people are micronutrient deficient. It also discusses the double burden of malnutrition, with 1.4 billion people overweight and 500 million obese. The document recommends agricultural research priorities like productivity growth for staples and non-staples, considering dietary quality in breeding objectives, and partnerships across sectors to address malnutrition holistically.
The document summarizes projections from the 2011-2020 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook report. It finds that global agricultural production and trade will increase over the projection period, driven by population and income growth in developing countries. Commodity prices are projected to remain higher on average than the previous decade. Production growth will concentrate in developing regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, while trade of many agricultural products like vegetable oils and rice is expected to rise 10-30%.
1) Global agricultural prospects are good with higher average prices, increasing production, and expanding trade expected over the next decade.
2) However, rising production costs due to increasing input prices, greater market and price volatility, and constraints on water and other resources pose challenges.
3) Agricultural productivity growth, which is essential to meeting rising global food demand, is projected to slow compared to the previous decade due to these factors. Governments and policies can help address these issues through investments in innovation, sustainability, and risk management programs.
2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ComercialEmbraer RI
This document discusses the outlook for the airline market and opportunities for the RJ 50 regional jet. It notes that regional jets now make up a significant portion of the US and European fleets and route networks. The RJ 50 is well suited for low-density routes where larger jets are not economical. The document identifies numerous underserved markets and secondary routes in the US, EU, China, and Russia that could support RJ 50 service. Overall it argues that regional jets like the RJ 50 remain an intrinsic part of the air transportation system.
By David J. Spielman, Fatima Zaidi, and Kathleen Flaherty. Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana on December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
This document outlines priorities for public sector research on food security and nutrition. It notes that 850 million people are undernourished, 28% of children are stunted, and 2 billion people are micronutrient deficient. It also discusses the double burden of malnutrition, with 1.4 billion people overweight and 500 million obese. The document recommends agricultural research priorities like productivity growth for staples and non-staples, considering dietary quality in breeding objectives, and partnerships across sectors to address malnutrition holistically.
The document summarizes projections from the 2011-2020 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook report. It finds that global agricultural production and trade will increase over the projection period, driven by population and income growth in developing countries. Commodity prices are projected to remain higher on average than the previous decade. Production growth will concentrate in developing regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, while trade of many agricultural products like vegetable oils and rice is expected to rise 10-30%.
1) Global agricultural prospects are good with higher average prices, increasing production, and expanding trade expected over the next decade.
2) However, rising production costs due to increasing input prices, greater market and price volatility, and constraints on water and other resources pose challenges.
3) Agricultural productivity growth, which is essential to meeting rising global food demand, is projected to slow compared to the previous decade due to these factors. Governments and policies can help address these issues through investments in innovation, sustainability, and risk management programs.
2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ComercialEmbraer RI
This document discusses the outlook for the airline market and opportunities for the RJ 50 regional jet. It notes that regional jets now make up a significant portion of the US and European fleets and route networks. The RJ 50 is well suited for low-density routes where larger jets are not economical. The document identifies numerous underserved markets and secondary routes in the US, EU, China, and Russia that could support RJ 50 service. Overall it argues that regional jets like the RJ 50 remain an intrinsic part of the air transportation system.
By David J. Spielman, Fatima Zaidi, and Kathleen Flaherty. Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana on December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
Georgia College and State University's Global Citizenship SymposiumWorldwatch Institute
See Nourishing the Planet’s latest powerpoint presentation at the Georgia College and State University's Global Citizenship Symposium. Project director Danielle Nierenberg discussed the connection between sustainable agriculture and public health.
How sustainable is development of human? Story with picturesMihail Peleah
1) While human development has achieved impressive gains in areas like life expectancy and reduced child mortality, billions still live in poverty and inequality remains high globally.
2) Current patterns of high consumption, population growth, and debt-driven economic growth are unsustainable and could compromise the needs and resources of future generations if unchanged.
3) Strong sustainability requires maintaining total capital stocks, as individual forms of capital like natural, social and economic resources are interdependent and not easily substitutable in the long-run.
Presentation built in the context of a real estate class taken at Brandeis International Business School.
In the perspective of a meeting with investors, the presentation was created to help gather investments of $100M split between three projects in China.
The document provides an overview of the Nile Basin Focal Project. It discusses key facts about the Nile River basin including its length, basin area, and population of riparian countries. It outlines the importance of the Nile in terms of countries' dependence on it for water and as an opportunity, as well as its ecosystem functions and development potentials. It then discusses some key problems related to the project, including water, food, and poverty issues like drought, famine, and how the majority of the population engages in agriculture.
1) Fertilizer use in India has increased overall consumption from around 11.5 million tons in 1990-91 to over 41 million tons in 1999-2000, with nitrogenous fertilizers making up around 65% of total consumption.
2) Five states - Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal - account for over 83% of NP/NPK fertilizer consumption in India, led by Andhra Pradesh.
3) The government's retention pricing scheme, introduced in the 1970s-80s, played a key role in facilitating growth of India's fertilizer industry and increasing consumption, through subsidies to maintain domestic production and consumption.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. The project involves mining alunite deposits and processing it into sulphate of potash (SOP), sulphuric acid, and bauxite. Extensive historical work in the 1970s expedites development. The project is expected to produce 680,000 tonnes of SOP annually starting in 2016. Management has over 80 years of combined experience in the mining industry. Utah provides an attractive mining jurisdiction with existing infrastructure and a streamlined permitting process.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. The project involves mining alunite deposits and processing it into sulphate of potash (SOP), sulphuric acid, and bauxite. Extensive historical work in the 1970s expedites development. The project is expected to produce 680,000 tonnes of SOP annually starting in 2016. Management has over 80 years of combined experience in the mining industry. Utah provides an attractive mining jurisdiction with existing infrastructure and a streamlined permitting process.
This document discusses trends in global population, GDP, and poverty from 1000-2001. It shows that while global population and GDP have increased dramatically over time, 24% less people live in poverty today compared to 1990. However, poverty reductions have not been equal across regions. The document suggests that aggregate statistics may obscure underlying issues and that continued progress is still needed.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. It highlights the project's large, high-quality potash deposit that is strategically located with established infrastructure. The experienced management team has over 80 years of combined experience developing large resource projects. A preliminary economic assessment shows the project has a $1.3 billion NPV and 21.3% IRR, with potential to be a long-life, low-cost producer of premium sulphate of potash fertilizer.
International Markets & Policy on Renewable Energyreeep
International Markets & Policy discusses renewable energy and energy efficiency programs around the world. The Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) works to reduce barriers to renewables adoption, particularly in emerging markets. REEEP collaborates with governments and the private sector using a bottom-up approach. Examples of REEEP projects and country policies are provided for India, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Australia, and the Solomon Islands.
New Sources of Tin Mine Supply - Dec 2012 - Greenfields Research / ITRIJohn Sykes
The document discusses new sources of tin mine supply. It notes that 1) alluvial tin mining costs are becoming competitive with hard rock mining costs, 2) primary tin production is declining in Asia and the Americas but rising in Australia, Africa, and Europe, and 3) tin mining is becoming more dependent on by-products as primary tin production alone is often uneconomic. The document concludes that new investment is required to supply tin mine production.
"Public Sector Budget Allocation to Agriculture and Effeciency of Resource Use: A Review of Status, Trends and Implications." presentation by Babatunde Omilola at the CAADP Donors and Partners Meeting, Sept. 6, 2009.
1) The document lists the work experience of Cherukumalli Srinivasa Rao from 1992 to 2009 at various institutes including the National Academy of Agricultural Research and Management, Indian Institute of Soil Science, Indian Institute of Pulses Research, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.
2) It then provides an outline for a presentation on sustainable soil fertility management and emerging issues and future challenges. The outline includes topics on potassium nutrition, nutrient deficiencies in rainfed agriculture, carbon sequestration strategies, and soil fertility management strategies from an African context.
3) Yield stagnation in grain legumes may
The Premium Potash Project aims to produce 680,000 tonnes per year of sulphate of potash (SOP) from the Blawn Mountain alunite deposit in Utah. The project is led by an experienced management team with over 80 years of combined experience. An initial mine plan outlines a 30 year mine life with an estimated $1.3 billion after-tax net present value at a 10% discount rate and 21.3% internal rate of return. The project is expected to be a low-cost SOP producer with an estimated cash cost of $101 per tonne before credits from sulphuric acid and bauxite by-product sales.
This presentation was given by UDOT Program Development Director Cory Pope to the Infrastructure and General Governmental Appropriations Subcommittee on February 8, 2013.
The document is a 2010 corporate presentation by MPX Energia S.A. It begins with disclaimer notes about forward-looking statements and reliance on information. The presentation then provides an overview of MPX as a diversified private utility with coal and natural gas assets in Colombia and Brazil. It notes MPX has flexibility to supply resources to its own plants or international markets. Charts show Brazil's increasing power demand driven by economic growth and how new hydro plants have limited storage capacity, increasing reliance on thermal generation.
The document discusses trends, current situations, and policy options for reducing rural poverty in the São Francisco River Basin region of Brazil. It provides an overview of population trends, poverty levels, agricultural practices, water availability, and other driving forces in the region from 1991 to present. The presentation then examines problems like persistent poverty, water conflicts, and environmental impacts. It proposes that public policy could help manage agriculture, reduce poverty, and models the impacts of potential policy options like water pricing and restrictions. Data sources, economic models, and knowledge pathways are also referenced.
Global forest policy is shaped by competing narratives around conservation and development. Key trends include climate change putting forests back on the global agenda, demands for land increasing for food, fuel and carbon, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples and forest communities. While deforestation continues, it is occurring at a slower pace as protected areas and planted forests expand, especially in Asia-Pacific countries.
FLE2012 - 8nov: Lucas Simons (voedselschaarste)MVO Nederland
This document summarizes challenges facing the agricultural sector and strategies for promoting sustainability. It notes that agriculture is an unsustainable sector due to factors like ineffective policies, low productivity, and lack of market demand for sustainable products. This leads to problems like environmental degradation. The document then discusses how Douwe Egberts coffee company could use its position to increase consumer demand for sustainable coffee and help prevent issues like food scarcity. Finally, it outlines a 4-step model for creating an efficient agricultural finance market that could help boost investment and sustainability.
The document summarizes the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). WLE aims to improve food security, livelihoods and equitable sharing of ecosystem services through sustainable agriculture intensification and collaborative resource management policies. It brings together 11 CGIAR research centers and partners working across scales to develop innovative solutions to complex problems related to agriculture, natural resources and poverty. Key aspects include working at different scales, integrating disciplines and sectors, leveraging partnerships, and ensuring research leads to impact through learning and communication. WLE operates in 8 regions covering over a billion people through regional interventions and a global knowledge base to minimize tradeoffs across landscapes and basins.
The document discusses the growth of the McAllen metro area from 1980 to 2010 based on US Census data. It also discusses factors driving the local economy, including agribusiness, retail, the foreign trade zone, tourism, and the growing medical community. While Mexico's drug violence creates challenges, the local economy remains strong with job and population growth and new developments and industries emerging.
Georgia College and State University's Global Citizenship SymposiumWorldwatch Institute
See Nourishing the Planet’s latest powerpoint presentation at the Georgia College and State University's Global Citizenship Symposium. Project director Danielle Nierenberg discussed the connection between sustainable agriculture and public health.
How sustainable is development of human? Story with picturesMihail Peleah
1) While human development has achieved impressive gains in areas like life expectancy and reduced child mortality, billions still live in poverty and inequality remains high globally.
2) Current patterns of high consumption, population growth, and debt-driven economic growth are unsustainable and could compromise the needs and resources of future generations if unchanged.
3) Strong sustainability requires maintaining total capital stocks, as individual forms of capital like natural, social and economic resources are interdependent and not easily substitutable in the long-run.
Presentation built in the context of a real estate class taken at Brandeis International Business School.
In the perspective of a meeting with investors, the presentation was created to help gather investments of $100M split between three projects in China.
The document provides an overview of the Nile Basin Focal Project. It discusses key facts about the Nile River basin including its length, basin area, and population of riparian countries. It outlines the importance of the Nile in terms of countries' dependence on it for water and as an opportunity, as well as its ecosystem functions and development potentials. It then discusses some key problems related to the project, including water, food, and poverty issues like drought, famine, and how the majority of the population engages in agriculture.
1) Fertilizer use in India has increased overall consumption from around 11.5 million tons in 1990-91 to over 41 million tons in 1999-2000, with nitrogenous fertilizers making up around 65% of total consumption.
2) Five states - Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal - account for over 83% of NP/NPK fertilizer consumption in India, led by Andhra Pradesh.
3) The government's retention pricing scheme, introduced in the 1970s-80s, played a key role in facilitating growth of India's fertilizer industry and increasing consumption, through subsidies to maintain domestic production and consumption.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. The project involves mining alunite deposits and processing it into sulphate of potash (SOP), sulphuric acid, and bauxite. Extensive historical work in the 1970s expedites development. The project is expected to produce 680,000 tonnes of SOP annually starting in 2016. Management has over 80 years of combined experience in the mining industry. Utah provides an attractive mining jurisdiction with existing infrastructure and a streamlined permitting process.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. The project involves mining alunite deposits and processing it into sulphate of potash (SOP), sulphuric acid, and bauxite. Extensive historical work in the 1970s expedites development. The project is expected to produce 680,000 tonnes of SOP annually starting in 2016. Management has over 80 years of combined experience in the mining industry. Utah provides an attractive mining jurisdiction with existing infrastructure and a streamlined permitting process.
This document discusses trends in global population, GDP, and poverty from 1000-2001. It shows that while global population and GDP have increased dramatically over time, 24% less people live in poverty today compared to 1990. However, poverty reductions have not been equal across regions. The document suggests that aggregate statistics may obscure underlying issues and that continued progress is still needed.
The document summarizes Potash Ridge Corporation's Premium Potash Project located in Utah. It highlights the project's large, high-quality potash deposit that is strategically located with established infrastructure. The experienced management team has over 80 years of combined experience developing large resource projects. A preliminary economic assessment shows the project has a $1.3 billion NPV and 21.3% IRR, with potential to be a long-life, low-cost producer of premium sulphate of potash fertilizer.
International Markets & Policy on Renewable Energyreeep
International Markets & Policy discusses renewable energy and energy efficiency programs around the world. The Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) works to reduce barriers to renewables adoption, particularly in emerging markets. REEEP collaborates with governments and the private sector using a bottom-up approach. Examples of REEEP projects and country policies are provided for India, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Australia, and the Solomon Islands.
New Sources of Tin Mine Supply - Dec 2012 - Greenfields Research / ITRIJohn Sykes
The document discusses new sources of tin mine supply. It notes that 1) alluvial tin mining costs are becoming competitive with hard rock mining costs, 2) primary tin production is declining in Asia and the Americas but rising in Australia, Africa, and Europe, and 3) tin mining is becoming more dependent on by-products as primary tin production alone is often uneconomic. The document concludes that new investment is required to supply tin mine production.
"Public Sector Budget Allocation to Agriculture and Effeciency of Resource Use: A Review of Status, Trends and Implications." presentation by Babatunde Omilola at the CAADP Donors and Partners Meeting, Sept. 6, 2009.
1) The document lists the work experience of Cherukumalli Srinivasa Rao from 1992 to 2009 at various institutes including the National Academy of Agricultural Research and Management, Indian Institute of Soil Science, Indian Institute of Pulses Research, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.
2) It then provides an outline for a presentation on sustainable soil fertility management and emerging issues and future challenges. The outline includes topics on potassium nutrition, nutrient deficiencies in rainfed agriculture, carbon sequestration strategies, and soil fertility management strategies from an African context.
3) Yield stagnation in grain legumes may
The Premium Potash Project aims to produce 680,000 tonnes per year of sulphate of potash (SOP) from the Blawn Mountain alunite deposit in Utah. The project is led by an experienced management team with over 80 years of combined experience. An initial mine plan outlines a 30 year mine life with an estimated $1.3 billion after-tax net present value at a 10% discount rate and 21.3% internal rate of return. The project is expected to be a low-cost SOP producer with an estimated cash cost of $101 per tonne before credits from sulphuric acid and bauxite by-product sales.
This presentation was given by UDOT Program Development Director Cory Pope to the Infrastructure and General Governmental Appropriations Subcommittee on February 8, 2013.
The document is a 2010 corporate presentation by MPX Energia S.A. It begins with disclaimer notes about forward-looking statements and reliance on information. The presentation then provides an overview of MPX as a diversified private utility with coal and natural gas assets in Colombia and Brazil. It notes MPX has flexibility to supply resources to its own plants or international markets. Charts show Brazil's increasing power demand driven by economic growth and how new hydro plants have limited storage capacity, increasing reliance on thermal generation.
The document discusses trends, current situations, and policy options for reducing rural poverty in the São Francisco River Basin region of Brazil. It provides an overview of population trends, poverty levels, agricultural practices, water availability, and other driving forces in the region from 1991 to present. The presentation then examines problems like persistent poverty, water conflicts, and environmental impacts. It proposes that public policy could help manage agriculture, reduce poverty, and models the impacts of potential policy options like water pricing and restrictions. Data sources, economic models, and knowledge pathways are also referenced.
Global forest policy is shaped by competing narratives around conservation and development. Key trends include climate change putting forests back on the global agenda, demands for land increasing for food, fuel and carbon, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples and forest communities. While deforestation continues, it is occurring at a slower pace as protected areas and planted forests expand, especially in Asia-Pacific countries.
FLE2012 - 8nov: Lucas Simons (voedselschaarste)MVO Nederland
This document summarizes challenges facing the agricultural sector and strategies for promoting sustainability. It notes that agriculture is an unsustainable sector due to factors like ineffective policies, low productivity, and lack of market demand for sustainable products. This leads to problems like environmental degradation. The document then discusses how Douwe Egberts coffee company could use its position to increase consumer demand for sustainable coffee and help prevent issues like food scarcity. Finally, it outlines a 4-step model for creating an efficient agricultural finance market that could help boost investment and sustainability.
The document summarizes the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). WLE aims to improve food security, livelihoods and equitable sharing of ecosystem services through sustainable agriculture intensification and collaborative resource management policies. It brings together 11 CGIAR research centers and partners working across scales to develop innovative solutions to complex problems related to agriculture, natural resources and poverty. Key aspects include working at different scales, integrating disciplines and sectors, leveraging partnerships, and ensuring research leads to impact through learning and communication. WLE operates in 8 regions covering over a billion people through regional interventions and a global knowledge base to minimize tradeoffs across landscapes and basins.
The document discusses the growth of the McAllen metro area from 1980 to 2010 based on US Census data. It also discusses factors driving the local economy, including agribusiness, retail, the foreign trade zone, tourism, and the growing medical community. While Mexico's drug violence creates challenges, the local economy remains strong with job and population growth and new developments and industries emerging.
1) Africa faces a major challenge of meeting its growing electricity demand as quickly as possible using flexible power generation technologies.
2) Small, modular power plants made of multiple generating units in parallel provide more reliable and available power compared to single large plants. They also offer flexibility in output, fuel type, and capital costs.
3) Cascading power plants, where units are started up only as needed, improve fuel and maintenance efficiency compared to running plants at constant output levels.
The document discusses improving soil fertility and nutrient management in developing countries. It covers topics such as world fertilizer consumption trends from 1961-2002, the role of fertilizers in the Green Revolution, impacts of fertilizers on soil organic matter and the environment, and challenges with nutrient management in different regions of Asia and Africa. In particular, it notes that while fertilizer use has increased crop production globally, Africa has seen less progress and still struggles with widespread phosphorus and micronutrient deficiencies in many countries.
The document describes the work of Watershed Organization Trust (WOTR), an NGO working on watershed development and climate change adaptation in rural Maharashtra, India. WOTR aims to empower communities to secure livelihoods and well-being through sustainable ecosystem management. Its key activities include integrated water resources management, capacity building, women's empowerment, knowledge dissemination, and policy advocacy. The document outlines WOTR's operations, interventions, and the impacts of its work in strengthening community resilience to climate change.
The document discusses several issues related to industrial agriculture including:
1) Articles from Natural News and Christianity Today discuss the dangers of factory farms, including toxic chemical fumes poisoning neighbors and the grim realities of conditions.
2) As food safety outbreaks and recalls increase, the 'good food' movement advocating natural and sustainable agriculture is expanding.
3) A graph shows growing global population straining limited arable land resources per capita since 1960. This points to a potential demand and supply imbalance issue.
Comparison of methods to derive reference levels for REDDCIFOR-ICRAF
Presentation by Michael Huettner, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena/Germany
Measuring and monitoring, baselines and leakage, Forest Day 3
Sunday, 13 December 2009
Copenhagen, Denmark
The document discusses a rice producer in India, including its products and markets, financials and outlook, and business strategy. It notes the company's large scale of operations, growth in sales and profits, and plans to expand capacity and diversify its customer base to manage risks. The summary concludes the company has strong capabilities in rice milling but must invest in logistics and diversify its customer base to increase margins and support further growth.
This document discusses global energy trends and alternatives to petroleum. It notes that global population and energy demand are rising rapidly. While unconventional oil and biofuels can help meet growing demand, they face challenges around environmental impacts, resource constraints, and high costs. Electricity and natural gas are also discussed as alternatives, but electricity generation is still heavily reliant on coal and natural gas. Significant technological advances and infrastructure build-outs would be needed for alternatives to fully replace petroleum on a large scale.
This document discusses recycling trends and ACOR, a national peak body representing the recycling industry in Australia. It provides an overview of ACOR's mission to advocate for policies supporting recycling organizations. Current trends in kerbside recycling regulations are noted, such as waste levies and bans on landfilling certain materials. Data on recovery rates and per capita disposal/recycling across Australian states is presented. Local governments are encouraged to utilize ACOR as a resource on relevant issues and changes affecting the recycling sector.
This document discusses the integration of agricultural and energy markets and the effects on food security. It notes that rising global population and incomes are increasing both food and energy demand. Agricultural production relies on energy for inputs like fertilizer and machinery, so higher energy prices increase food costs. The growth of biofuels also competes for agricultural land and feedstocks. Ensuring adequate, affordable food supplies will require balancing food, energy and environmental needs.
This spatial analysis created six similarity domains for targeted research sites in Zimbabwe based on climate, soil type, population, market access, and agricultural potential. The domains showed relatively low average travel times to markets but noted constraints to input access could still limit yields. While current average yields are below 1.75 tons/ha, the analysis found a continued high potential yield gap across the regions. It identified spatial areas that would most benefit from extrapolating targeted farming technologies from the research locations.
A spatial analysis: creating similarity domains for targeted research sites i...Joanna Hicks
This spatial analysis was commissioned by ACIAR to develop similarity domains for targeted research sites in Zimbabwe based on climate, production, market access, and population data. The objectives were to enhance adoption of farming technologies and assist funding bodies to target high-impact regions. Climate, soil, population, and other data layers were overlaid to create six similarity domains centered around existing research sites. Agricultural potential analysis showed a large yield gap between current low-input yields and simulated high-input yields across all domains, indicating room for improvement through investments and interventions.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for achieving global food security through sustainable agriculture and innovation. It notes rising food insecurity, prices, and competition for land and water. Key drivers of future demand include population and income growth while supply is constrained by land and water scarcity and climate change impacts. Strategies discussed include agricultural technology and research to boost productivity, as well as integrated soil management, irrigation improvements, and crop breeding innovations. Modeling tools can assess impacts and guide development of location-specific solutions.
Brazilian honey production is strong, with year-round crops across the country supported by floral diversity and resistant hybrid bee species. Brazil has over 350,000 beekeepers organized in cooperatives and producing honey without antibiotic residues. Exports of Brazilian honey have grown significantly over the past decade, reaching over $100 million USD annually, with key export markets in Spain, the UK, Germany, and NAFTA countries. The outlook for continued growth in Brazilian honey exports is positive.
- Peat swamp forests in Southeast Asia store large amounts of carbon but have been degraded through logging, drainage for agriculture and plantations, and fires. They cover around 25 million hectares across 10 countries but only 34% remain intact.
- Main drivers of change have been commercial logging, transmigration programs, and more recently oil palm and pulp plantations, which have led to drainage and increased fires when not managed properly. Fires can spread haze across borders.
- Efforts are underway through ASEAN and national projects to promote sustainable management and restoration of peatlands through BMPs, rehabilitation of degraded areas, fire prevention, and alternative livelihoods. Further protection and restoration of peatlands is needed
1. Water and agriculture are closely linked, as agriculture uses over 70% of available water globally. Increasing population and development is driving up demand for both water and food.
2. At the local scale, the linkages between water, agriculture and poverty are direct. Improving water availability can increase agricultural productivity and livelihood outcomes for the poor.
3. These local systems are connected at the basin scale, where water and food systems interact through transfers of water. Cross-overs between food and water systems occur at the basin scale.
Similar to Perspectives on the Future of Food Security (20)
These set of slides were presented at the BEP Seminar "Targeting in Development Projects: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned" held last Oct. 2, 2023 in Cairo, Egypt
Caitlin Welsh
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Joseph Glauber
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Antonina Broyaka
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Bofana, Jose. 2023. Mapping cropland extent over a complex landscape: An assessment of the best approaches across the Zambezi River basin. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Mananze, Sosdito. 2023. Examples of remote sensing application in agriculture monitoring. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
This document discusses using satellite data and crop modeling to forecast crop yields in Mozambique. It summarizes previous studies conducted in the US, Argentina, and Brazil to test a remote sensing crop growth and simulation model (RS-CGSM) for predicting corn and soybean yields. For Mozambique, additional data is needed on crop cultivars, management practices, planting and harvest seasons. It also describes using earth observation data and machine learning models to forecast crop yields and conditions across many countries as part of the GEOGLAM program, though this is currently only implemented in South Africa for Africa. Finally, it mentions a production efficiency model for estimating yield from satellite estimates of gross primary production.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Kickoff Meeting (virtual), January 12, 2023
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 1. Stakeholder engagement for impacts. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Centro de Estudos de Políticas e Programas Agroalimentares (CEPPAG). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 3. Digital collection of groundtruthing data. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
ITC/University of Twente. 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 2. Enhanced area sampling frames. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Christina Justice
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Rice is the most consumed cereal in Senegal, accounting for 34% of total cereal consumption. Per capita consumption is 80-90kg annually, though there is an urban-rural divide. While domestic production has doubled between 2010-2021, it still only meets 40% of demand. As a result, Senegal imports around 1 million tons annually, mainly from India and Thailand. Several public policies aim to incentivize domestic production and stabilize prices, though rice remains highly exposed to international price shocks due to its importance in consumption and reliance on imports.
Abdullah Mamun and Joseph Glauber
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Shirley Mustafa
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Joseph Glauber
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
This document provides an overview of the Political Economy and Policy Analysis (PEPA) Sourcebook virtual book launch. It summarizes the purpose and features of the PEPA Sourcebook, which is a guide for generating evidence to inform national food, land, and water policies and strategies. The Sourcebook includes frameworks, analytical tools, case studies, and step-by-step guidance for conducting political economy and policy analysis. It aims to address the current fragmentation in approaches and lack of external validity by integrating different frameworks and methods into a single resource. The launch event highlighted example frameworks and case studies from the Sourcebook that focus on various policy domains like food and nutrition, land, and climate and ecology.
- Rice exports from Myanmar have exceeded 2 million tons per year since 2019-2020, except for 2020-2021 during the peak of the pandemic. Exports through seaports now account for around 80% of total exports.
- Domestic rice prices in Myanmar have closely tracked Thai export prices, suggesting strong linkages between domestic and international markets.
- Simulations of a 10% decrease in rice productivity and a 0.4 million ton increase in exports in 2022-2023 resulted in a 33% increase in domestic prices, a 5% fall in production, and a 10% drop in consumption, with poor households suffering the largest declines in rice consumption of 12-13%.
Bedru Balana, Research Fellow, IFPRI, presented these slides at the AAAE2023 Conference, Durban, South Africa, 18-21 September 2023. The authors acknowledged the contributions of CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies, Google, the International Rescue Committee, IFPRI, and USAID.
Sara McHattie
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
Facilitating Anticipatory Action with Improved Early Warning Guidance
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
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1. Public Sector Research Priorities
for Sustainable Food Security
Perspectives from Plausible
Scenarios
Gerald C. Nelson, IFPRI and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, FAO
Food Security Futures 1, Dublin, Ireland, 11 April 2013
2. Harry S Truman
Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say, On the
one hand… on the other.
The future is an uncertain place.
Plausible scenarios help to bound the uncertainty to
guide investments and policy decisions.
3. After a steady decline, progress towards the
MDG hunger target has stalled
Millions of hungry people
1050
World Developing world
1000
1000
980
950
931
922
898
900
909 905
867 868
885
850
852 852
800
1995-97 2007-09 2015
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2012).
4. Regional disparities in progress in reducing
undernourishment are large. Between 1990 and
2011,…
350
Increase of 64 Decrease of 22
300
Million undernourished
million in Sub- million in South Asia
250 Saharan Africa
200
150
100
50
0
Sub-Saharan South East Asia South Asia East Asia Latin America Other developing
Africa
1990/92 2010/12
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2012).
5. What Might the Future
Hold?
Recent findings from FAO and the CGIAR
6. Participants who determine the future
▪ The private sector
▪ Ranging from the smallest of small holder to the largest of global agribusinesses, manages
resources to meet their own internal imperatives of subsistence, survival and profitability.
▪ The public sector
▪ Provides
▪ A ‘level playing field’ – the set of formal institutions that all participants are legally obliged to
adhere, and enforcement
▪ Provision of various kinds of public goods that improve the workings of the private sector
▪ Civil society
▪ Watches over both the public and private sectors and uses its voice to improve the
functioning of both.
7. The sources of food security challenges: drivers
of change
▪ Demand
▪ The number of people
▪ Their command over financial and physical resources
▪ Their dietary desires
▪ Their location
▪ Supply
▪ The capacity of natural resources, augmented by human actions, to meet these
demands over an extended period.
8. FAO AT2050: Cautious optimism for improved food
security, but climate change effects not included
▪ Supply – agricultural production increases by 60 percent between 2006 and 2050
▪ Demand – population growth is more important than income growth
▪ Population growth – 39 percent
▪ Income growth – 21 percent
▪ Well-being outcome – caloric intake increases at the global level by 12.8 percent
▪ 2006 – 2,772 kcal/day/person
▪ 2050 – 3,070 kcal/day/person
▪ Significantly more in the poorest regions
▪ But including climate change nuances the good news, potentially significantly for
some regions
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012), FAO.
9. Modest cereal yield improvements
(kg/ha left-axis, growth percent per annum right-axis)
5,000 2.5
4,500
4,000 2.0
3,500
Percent per annum
3,000 1.5
Kt/ha
2,500
2,000 1.0
1,500
1,000 0.5
500
0 0.0
sub-Saharan South Asia Near East & N. Latin America Developing World Developed East Asia
Africa Africa countries countries
2006 2050 Growth 0.65% p.a. vs. 2% p.a. 1960-2005
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
10. Land use change continues in Latin America and
Sub-Saharan Africa
(million hectares left-axis, percent change 2005/07 - 2050 right-axis)
160 32
140 28
120 24
Percent change 2005/7-2050
100 20
Million hectares
80 16
60 12
40 8
20 4
0 0
Developing Latin America sub-Saharan Africa Near East & N. East Asia South Asia Developed
countries Africa countries
Irrigated land change, million hectare (left-axis) Rain-fed land change, million hectare (left-axis) Percent change between 2005/07-2050 (right-axis)
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
11. Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to
2050: Key Findings
▪ GDP and population growth result in price increases between 2010 and 2050
▪ Climate change hurts productivity and causes even greater price increases
▪ International trade flows are an important adaptation component
Source: Nelson et al, 2010.
12. Income and population growth drive prices higher
(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
Nelson et al, 2010.
13. Climate change increases prices even more
(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography)
Minimum and maximum
effect from four climate
scenarios
Nelson et al, 2010.
14. Three main messages to policy makers
▪ In low-income countries, sustainable development is a more important priority
than climate change adaptation today
▪ Prepare today for higher temperatures and changes in precipitation in all sectors
tomorrow
▪ Invest more in capacity to adapt agriculture
▪ Keep international trade relatively free from barriers
▪ Collect better data today and tomorrow on existing situation and practices
▪ Weather, land cover, water availability, prices, practices
15. Parsing the future: Plausible scenarios in 2013
▪ What do we know?
▪ Population will grow
▪ Incomes will increase in many places
▪ Temperatures will rise, precipitation patterns will change
▪ But by how much?
▪ Use combinations of plausible drivers to generate a range of plausible outcomes
▪ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from IPCC
▪ New IPCC socioeconomic scenarios – population, income, urbanization
▪ Add new IPCC climate scenario – RCP8.5 – most extreme in the new suite of GHG
emission pathways
17. The per capita income gap remains large in 2050
but is reduced in some scenarios
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
$2007 per capita
30,000
25,000
2010
20,000 SSP2
SSP3
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
World Developing South Asia E. Europe & Middle East Sub-Saharan Latin High Income
East Asia Central Asia & North Africa America &
Africa Caribbean
18. Temperatures and precipitation increase
(Absolute changes in annual mean temperature [°C] (top) and annual mean
precipitation [mm/day] (bottom), 2000-2050)
HadGEM-ES2, RCP8.5 IPSL-CM5A-LR, RCP8.5
Temperature
Increases of
6°C to 8°C in
northern
latitudes
Precipitation
Drying in
southeast US
and northern
Brazil
Source: Müller, C., & Robertson, R. D. (2013 submitted). Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling.
Agricultural Economics.
19. Rainfed maize yields decline
(Relative changes in rain fed maize productivity climate scenarios for the RCP8.5
emission scenario, 2000-2050)
HadGEM-ES2, RCP8.5 IPSL-CM5A-LR, RCP8.5
DSSAT
DSSAT
effects are
greater than
LPJmL
LPJmL
Source: Müller, C., & Robertson, R. D. (2013 submitted). Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling.
Agricultural Economics.
20. What are the consequences?
▪ Prices
▪ Calorie availability
▪ Child malnutrition
21. Climate change causes price increases
Difference in 2050 (SSP2), climate change to no climate change
(percent)
23. In High income countries, neither income nor climate SSP3 with no
change scenarios affect average calorie availability climate change
3,600
3,400
Kcals per person per day
3,200
SSP2 with no
3,000
climate change
SSP2 with
climate change
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SSP2, no climate change SSP3, no climate change SSP2, IPSL, LPJmL
SSP2, Hadley, LPJmL SSP2, IPSL, DSSAT SSP2, Hadley, DSSAT
24. In Middle income countries, income growth and climate
change effects are both important SSP2 with no
3,600 climate change
3,400
Kcals per person per day
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600 SSP3 with no SSP2 with
climate change climate change
2,400
2,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SSP2, no climate change SSP3, no climate change SSP2, IPSL, LPJmL
SSP2, Hadley, LPJmL SSP2, IPSL, DSSAT SSP2, Hadley, DSSAT
25. In Low income countries, income growth and climate
change effects are both important
3,600
3,400
Kcals per person per day
3,200
SSP2 with
3,000
SSP2 with no climate change
climate change
2,800
2,600 SSP3 with no
climate change
2,400
2,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SSP2, no climate change SSP3, no climate change SSP2, IPSL, LPJmL
SSP2, Hadley, LPJmL SSP2, IPSL, DSSAT SSP2, Hadley, DSSAT
26. in Middle income developing countries, income growth is most
important in reducing the number of malnourished children
(million)
110
105
100
95
SSP3 with no
90 climate change
85
80
75
70
65
SSP2 with no SSP2 with
60 climate change climate change
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6
27. in Low income developing countries, income growth is most
important in reducing the number of malnourished children
(million)
50
45
SSP3 with no
climate change
40
35
SSP2 with no
climate change
30
SSP2 with
25
climate change
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6
28. Price outcomes differ by model
Difference in 2050 (SSP2), climate change to no climate change (percent)
110 Coarse grains Oil seeds Rice Sugar Wheat
% change relative to Reference Scenario S1 in 2050
90
70
50
30
10
-10
S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6S3S4S5S6
AIM ENVISAGE FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE
29. What is missing in these scenarios?
▪ Climate change
▪ Increasing extreme events
▪ Effects of changes in pest pressure
▪ Malnutrition
▪ Calorie availability contribution to undernutrition
▪ Calorie (and other nutrient) distribution to different groups
▪ Modeling overnutrition
▪ Sustainability
▪ Definitions
▪ Metrics
30. Priorities for CGIAR and FAO scenario development
and strategic foresight:
Cooperation is key to address missing elements
▪ Cooperative quantitative modeling
▪ Linking (and enhancing) partial and general equilibrium modeling
▪ Linking (and enhancing) biophysical and socioeconomic modeling
▪ Cooperative use of institutional and outside substantive expertise
▪ Actively involve biological experts in scenario development
▪ Sustained cooperation with model intercomparison efforts
Editor's Notes
Price increases with perfect mitigation and baseline areMaize – 52%Rice – 29%Wheat – 25%
Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45All these are for the baseline overall scenario
Absolute changes in annual mean temperature [°C] (top) and annual mean precipitation [mm/day] (bottom) from 1980-2010 to 2035-2065 for the HadGEM-ES2 (left) and IPSL-CM5A-LR (right) models. Temperature changes above 8°C have been cut to facilitate better visibility of differences at lower temperature changes, which is more important for cultivated areas. Grey areas in the bottom depict regions with precipitation changes of less than 50mm/year (0.137mm/day).