This document discusses whether we have reached "peak IT" and if digital technologies will continue delivering value. It notes that while Moore's Law predicted exponential growth in computing power, other technologies show s-shaped adoption curves with diminishing returns over time. Large digital projects in Sweden have failed to deliver value, with total losses over 10 billion SEK. The complexity of digital systems is increasing exponentially, making new projects more prone to failure. It argues we may be approaching the peak of what digital technologies can deliver before facing issues of complexity, bureaucracy and other systemic effects.

1. What if
digital stops
delivering
value?Jonas Söderström • InUse Experience
TDC • Oktober 2014 • Trondheim

2. or

3. Peak IT?
Judith/Flickr
are we approaching

4. @jonas_blind_hen
@inuse_swe
#TDConf
twitter

5. Digital funktion och passion
Stockholm • Göteborg • Malmö

7. FUTURE(Back to the)

11. Now

15. vernhart/Flickr

16. vernhart/Flickr

17. One strong
metaphor for
what’s happening:

19. Moore’s
law

20. But let’s get back
to the 60’ies

22. Moore
himself!

23. A new chip!

24. 1968: Sweden in 200024 of the most influential scientists, entreprenuers

25. 3 months vacation
60.000 SEK/month
4 hrs working day

26. 60.000 SEK/monthIn 1968 value

27. 499.274 SEK/monthIn 2014 value

28. But, well ...

30. Financial Times Oct 26, 2014

31. Productivity falling

32. A slowdown in technical
progress is the reason
usually given for this
progressive deceleration
in productivity growth.
”
”

33. ?

34. Economist Oct 4, 2014

38. The
s-shaped
curve

40. Law of
diminishing
returns

41. Antibiotics
Resistance
Motorways
Traffic jams

42. After 5 years of
construction to widen
I-405, traffic is slightly
slower than before
The "fundamental rule" of traffic. Vox, Oct 23, 2014

43. Peak X

44. Have we
reached
PEAK IT?

45. How hard
can it be?
”
”

46. ...for example,
a payroll
system?

47. Wrong salaries for 2 yrs.
2 757 hrs overtime

48. Wrong salaries for 1 yrs...

54. Recently:
Three of the biggest
Swedish banks
ditched efforts to build
new platforms, with total losses of
well over 10 billion SEK.

55. from 145 to 313 click
With new system
Renew weapons license:
mean 2 hrs 52 m
Write report, one case of shoplifting:

56. Why?

57. Alt 1: Everyone is an idiot

58. Alt 2: Method is wrong...
... and lean and agile
will save us!

59. Alt 3:
Exponentially
increasing
complexity

60. 4 6

61. +1

62. 5 10
+4+1

63. +1

64. 6 15
+5+1

66. Karolinska University Hospital
Library, 18 Feb 2014
110 employees
117 systems

68. §
EU

69. The EVIL TWIN of Metcalfe’s law

70. difference
between theory
and real-world
results

71. slowdown, caused
by system effects

72. / Flickr
BEGINNING
OF CURVE

73. PEAK

74. ?Future?

75. Have we
reached
PEAK IT?

76. Government?
Bank?
Cool
startup! Disruption!

77. Digitalisation
affords
bureaucracy

78. ”Software is
eating the
world”

79. Everything that eats,
also produces
excrement.

80. No more
highwaysBuild smaller things

81. New York High Line

82. Copenhagen bicycle bridge

83. Thanks!Mail:
jonas.soderstrom@inuse.se
Twitter:
@Jonas_Blind_Hen
Web:
inuse.se
javlaskitsystem.se
stupidsystem.se
Slideshare:
Jonas_inUse