The document discusses how digital technologies and IT systems are becoming increasingly complex over time due to growing interdependencies and new capabilities. This rising complexity can slow innovation and productivity gains. The document uses examples from Sweden where large bank IT projects were abandoned due to failures costing billions, and a hospital with over 100 different IT systems. The complexity has reached a "peak" for some organizations and industries, limiting new value from more IT. Simpler, modular approaches may be needed going forward.

2. Angry, stressed,
frustrated with IT
3400 2012
M T W T F

3. Arbeidsmiljøloven
4 kapitlet

4. Arbeidstakerne skal gis
nødvendig opplæring for å
sette seg inn i systemene, og de
skal medvirke ved utformingen
av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2

5. Arbeidstakerne skal gis
nødvendig opplæring for å
sette seg inn i systemene, og de
skal medvirke ved utformingen
av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2

6. Arbeidstakerne skal gis
nødvendig opplæring for å
sette seg inn i systemene, og de
skal medvirke ved utformingen
av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2
USER-CENTERED
DESIGN:
IT’S THE LAW

7. Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal

8. Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal

9. What if
digital stops
delivering
value?Jonas Söderström • InUse Experience
Betalingsformidling 2015
11 mars 2015

10. or

11. Peak IT?
Judith/Flickr
are we approaching

12. @jonas_blind_hen
@inuse_swe
#betfor15
#peakIT
twitter

13. Digital funktion och passion
Stockholm • Göteborg • Malmö

15. FUTURE(Back to the)

19. Now

23. vernhart/Flickr

24. vernhart/Flickr

25. One strong
metaphor for
what’s happening:

27. Moore’s
law

28. Moore
himself!

29. A new chip!

31. But let’s get back
to the 60’ies

33. They promised
not just flying cars,
but AFFLUENCE...

34. 1968: Sweden in 200024 of the most influential scientists, entreprenuers

35. 3 months vacation
60.000 SEK/month
4 hrs working day

36. 60.000 SEK/monthIn 1968 value

37. 482.226 SEK/monthIn 2014 value

38. But, well ...

40. Financial Times Oct 26, 2014

41. Productivity falling

42. Economist Oct 4, 2014

44. A slowdown in technical
progress is the reason
usually given for this
progressive deceleration
in productivity growth.
”
”Financial Times Oct 26, 2014

45. ?

47. The
s-shaped
curve

49. Law of
diminishing
returns

50. Antibiotics
Resistance
Motorways
Traffic jams

51. After 5 years of
construction to widen
I-405, traffic is slightly
slower than before
The "fundamental rule" of traffic. Vox, Oct 23, 2014

52. Peak X

53. Have we
reached
PEAK IT?

54. How hard
can it be?
”
”

55. ...for example,
a payroll
system?

56. 2013

57. 2012
2 757 tim övertid

58. 2011

59. 1997 – 2010

60. 2014

61. 1999 – 2014

62. 2010–2015

63. 2003 – 2013

64. ...

67. Recently:
Three of the biggest
Swedish banks
ditched efforts to build
new platforms, with total losses
of well over 10 billion SEK.

68. from 145 to 313 click
With new system
Renew weapons license:
mean 2 hrs 52 m
Write report, one case of shoplifting:

69. Why?

70. Alt 1: Everyone is an idiot

71. Alt 2:
Exponentially
increasing
complexity

72. 4 6

73. +1

74. 5 10
+4+1

75. +1

76. 6 15
+5+1

78. Karolinska University Hospital
Library, 18 Feb 2014
110 employees
117 systems

80. 117 118
+1 +6903

81. §
EU

82. The EVIL TWIN of Metcalfe’s law

83. difference
between theory
and real-world
results

84. slowdown, caused
by system effects

85. / Flickr
BEGINNING
OF CURVE

86. PEAK

87. ?Future?

88. Have we
reached
PEAK IT?

89. Government?
Bank?
Cool
startup! Disruption!

90. Digitalisation
affords
bureaucracy

91. ”simplify”

92. We don’t use IT
to simplify anymore.

93. Programming the ENIAC, late 1940ies
We did...

94. Joneal Williams-Daw at the UNIVAC 1, 1953

95. Norc, Columbia University’s Watson Lab, 1954

96. but now ...

97. 145 ➡313 clicks
We use IT to
do new things.
We use IT to
do new things.

98. Digitalisation
drives
complexity.

99. ... an exploding
middelman economy.
Digitalisation
has created ...

100. ”Software
is eating
the world”Marc Andressen

101. Everything that eats,
also produces
excrement.

102. No more
highwaysBuild smaller things

103. New York High Line

104. Copenhagen bicycle bridge

105. Thanks!Mail:
jonas.soderstrom@inuse.se
Twitter:
@Jonas_Blind_Hen
Web:
inuse.se
javlaskitsystem.se
stupidsystem.se
Slideshare:
Jonas_inUse