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Laura Mueller-Soppart 
Northeastern University 
Capstone Political Science 2013 
A Path to Peace between the Digital Divide: 
Why quality Internet access is critical to economic stability 
through the lens of electrification trends 
Abstract 
Peace is derived through predictability, when society can rely on knowing tomorrow will 
be at least as successful as yesterday, the incentive to dissent is low. Security, society, 
politics, and economies are critical components to peace. This paper takes the perspective 
that economic stability is the most fundamental to maintaining stability in all other 
components. An increasingly important variable in the global economy is the Internet. 
Since the Internet is not owned by a single entity, rather it functions through a diverse 
network of computers, the evolution of Internet access must be handled thoughtfully in 
order to avoid deepening the digital divide. The evolution of electricity access is a strong 
parallel for business leader, policy makes, and consumers to reference because of how 
critical electricity and the Internet have become to economic activity, modern society and 
therefore critical to peace. The author finds that standardization, quality access, and 
abundant supply are critical to the ongoing successes of electrification efforts, and have 
the same opportunity for success in the effort to achieve universal Internet access.
2 
Introduction 
Global society has witnessed many transitions from conflict to peace. The 
components to a sustainable period of peace are endlessly interrelated. In the several 
decades after the end of conflict eras, from post colonialism to post revolution, the spread 
of peace in developing nations has been particularly complicated. These nascent nations 
exemplify the importance that all components of peace be strong and stable. 
There is a security transition. Crime, violence, and corruption are answered by a 
rise of public security and adequate institutions for enforcement. There is a political 
transition. A body of rules stands against violations of human and economic rights and 
encourages inclusive governance. There is a social transition. Ethnic, religious, sectarian, 
class or ideological confrontation that leads to internal conflict, often with regional 
implications, must give in to national identity so that all can live with each other and 
address future grievances through peaceful means. There is an economic transition. 
Mismanaged and illicit economies give way to stable and functioning economies where 
all citizens have the ability to earn a living wage. Each of these components is necessary 
for the others to thrive.1 
Much attention is afforded to the security, political, and social transitions at the 
expense of the economic transition. The economic component is the most crucial for the 
individual. Economic stability is fundamental to the rest, because peace has economic 
consequences.2 Peace is established with either short- or long-term goals. If the short-term 
goals, such as food aid, are not complemented with long-term goals, such as 
infrastructure, peace is unsustainable. How will that society be able to transport the food 
1 http://unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/building-peace-and-stability-through-economic-reconstruction-en- 
2 Keynes, J. M. (1920). The economic consequences of the peace,. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Howe.
3 
it will one day create for itself? For example, after the “economic reconstruction” of 
Africa in the 1960s, many nations were left with aid dependency (20% to 50% of GDP). 
These nations also have some of the highest levels of internal conflict.3 Without clear 
avenues for autonomous economic empowerment, citizens will lose faith in all other 
institutions to protect their rights. 
To continue with the example of Africa, it is calculated that the continent’s 
significant lag in economic development can be attributed to its poor infrastructure. 
Among poor societies, the power sector is lagging the most in terms of generation 
capacity, electricity consumption, and supply security. The electrical power infrastructure 
deficit accounts for two percentage points of lost per capita GDP growth.4 Now these 
countries with poor economic growth face wider and wider infrastructure gaps to bridge; 
this widening gap ultimately threatens the achievement of social and political 
development goals.5 Many studies prove underinvestment in electricity infrastructure as 
the cause for Africa’s poor growth performance. Poor planning fuels a vicious poverty 
cycle. 
Electricity is a critical vehicle for economic growth. High transportation costs and 
high energy costs deflate economic growth. Infrastructure investment enhances private 
sector development by lowering the cost of production and opening new markets. When 
appropriate cost-benefit analyses show positive social and economic impact, 
infrastructure projects can promote GDP. There is considerable debate around the cost-benefit 
of rural electrification. However, there is general consensus that electrification 
provides services that are fundamental to modernization and development goal 
3 http://spice.stanford.edu/docs/social_conflict_and_political_violence_in_africa/ 
4 http://www.africapartnershipforum.org/48908487.pdf 
5 Ibid.
achievement. For example, Rwanda is now considered to be a beacon of hope for East 
Africa. Rwanda has many progressive laws, such as the ban of all plastic bags to 
eliminate street waste.6 Yet, in rural Rwanda only 1.9% (2009) of the population have 
access to electricity.7 The lack of electricity access also starkly contrasts with the fact that 
45.2% (2010) of Rwandans have mobile devices.8 Clearly, there is a consumer demand to 
be connected to not only the electric grid, but also be connected to networks outside their 
own communities. 
Mobile devices are no longer used to just make telephone calls or send simple text 
messages. In the past year, there has been a 14% increase in global web traffic via mobile 
devices, and 16% in Africa and 23% in Asia.9 Today, one in every five people own a 
smartphone, a data enabled mobile device.10 Demand for information stored on the World 
Wide Web is clearly increasing, yet access to this information 
remains very disjointed 
because the Internet is not 
owned by a single entity, it 
is a network of computers. 
As more and more people 
and devices demand 
information from the 
6 http://www.theatlanticpost.com/culture/environmentally-cautious-rwanda-maintains-plastic-bag-ban- 
3790.html 
7 http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/REP_10_231.pdf 
8 http://www.statistics.gov.rw/publications/article/rwanda’s-mobile-phone-penetration-rised-over-past-five-years 
4 
9 Figure 1, Statista StatCounter, Access October 2013 
10 http://www.businessinsider.com/smartphone-and-tablet-penetration-2013-10 
Figure 1
5 
Internet, this network will continue to grow. While growth is an important part to the 
Internet’s strength, there is a global debate between regulating expansion and leaving 
growth open to competitors. Many argue that disjointed regulation compromises equal 
access and efficient infrastructure, and others argue that the Internet is still a nascent 
technology that needs venture capitalists willing to innovate and take risks. 
Regardless of the methodology, bridging the digital divide is a critical objective 
for future development goals.11 The maturation of electricity access had similar growing 
pains. It is important for policy makers and technology implementers to remember 
lessons learned from electricity access expansion because electricity and the Internet have 
undeniably similar affects on society. For example, communication transformed with the 
introduction of electricity as telecommunications technology was implemented around 
the world. Similarly, the Internet has again transformed communication. In 1993, only 
1% of information was communicated via the Internet, in 2000 it jumped to 51%, and in 
2007 over 97% of the world did. In historical terms, the Internet’s takeover was nearly 
instant.12 The Internet is essential to globalization, making the world a “smaller” more 
“connected” place where ideas can be exchanged instantaneously to increase 
productivity, efficiency, and creativity. 
This paper theorizes that the economic framing of electricity (standardized, cheap, 
and an in abundance) must be also be applied to the Internet in order to maintain 
economic stability, and general societal peace. These resources, or economic fuels, are 
critical to economic stability. As society has progressed from man, to steam, to electric, 
to information power economies, there have been clear economic winners and losers. The 
11 http://pewinternet.org/default.aspx 
12 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60
divide between these two groups is not sustainable. Today, many societies ensure electric 
power is always available in abundance; society needs to adapt a similar economic frame 
of mind for the Internet. The Internet, or information power, accounts for a larger 
proportion of global economic activity than agriculture.13 The Internet is already a larger 
and larger global economic influence. Optimizing this economic sector is critical to 
economic stability, and therefore also critical to all other components of peace. 
6 
Methodology 
There are a variety of methodologies that could demonstrate the importance of 
Internet access to peaceful societies. Security, society, politics, and economics are critical 
components to peace. As previously discussed, the definition of peace is multifaceted and 
each component is interdependent, and for the purposes of this paper, economic stability 
is most fundamental to maintaining stability in all other components. This definition of 
peace is holds throughout the paper. 
Various forms of power shape economies. The primary form of power in a given 
time arguably shapes that era. During eras of primary muscle power to steam power to 
electric power to information power, respective economies drastically change and 
therefore all other parts of society do too. This paper does not focus on the transitions 
from each dominant power source to the next because each remains an important variable 
to an evolving economy. The effect of the predominant power source is more critical to 
13 McKinsey Global Institute "Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and 
prosperity." http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters. May 2011. 
McKinsey and Company. Accessed October 2013.
7 
proving the necessity for universal access to these power sources, be it electricity of the 
Internet. 
Electric power is the most parallel to information power. These two sources are 
economic fuels on a micro and macro scale. An overview of the evolution of electricity 
access expansion will demonstrate its economic effects on consumers. An overview of 
standardization processes and large public investment in electricity infrastructure will be 
used to reveal these policies’ positive impact on economic growth and stability. Data 
sourced from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and 
the World Bank Group measure electricity access and electricity usage, as well as its 
effects on factors such as healthcare and education. 
An overview of the evolution of Internet access expansion will demonstrate its 
effect on consumers and businesses, as well as postulate how it will continue to do so in 
the future. A report produced in 2011 by the McKinsey Global Institute sets a metrics 
standard for measuring the economic impact of the Internet. The metrics and results will 
be adopted in this paper. Additionally, empirical research from the OECD, the World 
Bank, and other sources will evaluate why the increasing consumer demand for Internet 
access is crucial to economic stability. 
Electrification and Internet access expansion are both highly technical. The author 
recognizes that the technicalities of processes such as the evolution of electrical 
generation centralization (p.25) Internet network hierarchy (p.29) are not exhaustive. The 
goal is to provide enough insight for an unfamiliar reader to grasp both system’s 
similarities and differences. Some critical definitions are set below, and throughout the 
rest of the paper.
8 
Because the methods of Internet access are not as standardized as electricity, 
Internet access will be defined as access to the World Wide Web. There are several 
modes of access. Cellular bandwidth and broadband via wired or wireless systems are the 
most popular access methods to the World Wide Web. Data from the Federal 
Communication Commission (FCC) (Figure 2) are exclusive to the United States. 
However, the socioeconomic spectrum, rural versus urban spectrum, and racial 
demographic spectrum applicable to this data set makes it applicable for a high level 
overview of general trends in the developed world. 
Figure 2 
How all of these networks are monitored, secured, and maintained is the most 
disjointed part of the process. There are several gateway protocols, a system of rules for 
exchanging routing information across autonomous systems that are primarily upheld in 
faith. As the number of autonomous systems grows, protocols become increasingly 
fragile. For the purpose of this paper, protocols will refer to the generalized systems of 
rules regulating the Internet. Governments and some international bodies have varied 
amounts of regulatory control over their respective domains. For example, Germany has 
respective control over hosts within the .de domain, or China has respective control over
9 
hosts within the .cn domain. Additionally, the Internet Society (p. 31) is considered the 
most influential Internet regulator as determined by the United Nations. 
Access to all of the Internet’s various networks is dependent on the strength of the 
connection between the networks (p. 32). Optical carriers are the most efficient lines to 
transfer data. However, these are expensive and require dramatic infrastructure projects. 
For example, Google is developing an arm of its company to be an Internet Service 
Provider (ISP) called Google Fiber. The objective is to provide private households access 
to optical carriers rather than typical modems or phone lines. Modems, phone lines, 
digital subscriptions, and cellular bandwidth are the most popular consumer methods to 
access the Internet. The utility of these methods can vary greatly. Wired digital 
subscription is considered a very reliant tool to access data, however, cellular bandwidth 
is limited in its function. The variability between these access methods can be measured 
in data rates, service cost, reliability, and device applicability. For the purpose of this 
paper, variability in the above four areas will drive the analysis on Internet access. 
The variability from open access to restricted access is also commonly referred to 
as the digital divide, or digital gap. The digital divide is difficult to measure because of 
the above four variables. Is Internet access on a smartphone with a limited data plan 
comparable to Internet access on a desktop computer connected to corporate Local 
Access Network (LAN)? The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development 
published a seminal report on understanding the digital divide. OECD defines digital 
divide as the, “gap between individuals, households, businesses and geographic areas at 
different socio-economic levels with regard both to their opportunities to access 
information and communication technologies (ICTs) and to their use of the Internet for a
wide variety of activities.”14 This paper will adopt said definition. The economic impact 
of the digital divide is not thoroughly studied; however, the impact of Internet policies 
and general impact of the Internet on economies are better documented. The digital 
divide’s economic impact is critical to this paper’s thesis that Internet access must be 
handled similarly to global electrification goals to stimulate economic growth and 
stability. For the purpose of this paper, the economic effect of the digital divide will be 
analyzed primarily through the number of access lines per 100 inhabitants (Appendix 1) 
and Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants (Appendix 2), in addition to these comparisons to 
GDP growth and economic sector makeup (Figure 5). 
10 
This paper is driven by the high level comparison between electrification and 
Internet access expansion. The evolution of these two economic fuels will provide 
context to about a dozen small case studies that intend to illustrate how the necessity for 
electricity access and the necessity for Internet access cannot be overlooked if societies 
wish to remain stable and peaceful. 
Literature Review 
The parallel evolution of electricity and the Internet is not widely document. 
There are a few introductory statements in economic impact reports on the Internet that 
draw this parallel, though not much further detail. Most commonly, Internet access 
expansion is parallel with the freedom of expression and the elimination of censorship. 
While this parallel is relevant in a wider context of paths to peace, this paper concentrates 
on the economic impact. Communication is critical to globalization and economic 
14 http://www.oecd.org/sti/1888451.pdf
stability, as previously discussed; however the transformative effects of electrification on 
labor and consumerism provide a strong precedent for future Internet policy. 
11 
In 1919, John Maynard Keynes attended the Versailles Conference as a delegate 
of the British Treasury. The conference convened to negotiate the post WWI treaty. 
Keynes pushed an economic agenda, though the conference focused primarily on security 
and borders. He strongly argued against reparations. Many other delegates were of the 
view that holding Germany economically hostage would incentivize peace. Keynes 
retorted that overall debt forgiveness would not only help Germany prosper into a 
peaceful state, but would also benefit Britain. In his best-selling text, Economic 
Consequences of Peace, he reflects on the importance of economic stability on internal 
and regional peace. He ended the book with an ominous warning, “But who can say how 
much is endurable, or in what direction men will seek at last to escape from their 
misfortunes?" The economic policies at the time led to extreme inflation and price 
control, which disenfranchised German consumers and the nation’s economy; those 
policies are largely considered the cause of Hitler’s rise. Keynes clearly demonstrated 
how economic stability is fundamental to all other components of peace. 
Keynes’ book enforced the notion that creating mutually reinforcing political, 
economic, security, and social systems was a best practice for establishing peace that 
would unlikely revert back to violence. By the mid 20th century, electricity was an 
integral mutually reinforcing system throughout the world. In Thomas Edison’s writings 
he documented the paradigm shifts in manufacturing, and the byproducts’ positive effect 
on society. Many futurists also penned stories of utopian worlds. Additionally, the 
historical recount of Henry Ford, the assembly line, and other advances attributed to
electricity are well told by energy historian David Nye in his seminal book, Consuming 
Power. He outlines six major energy transitions from muscle power to computing power. 
He suggests that the “idea of early-American family self sufficiency is a ‘cherished 
misconception’” and emphasizes how critical the Industrial Revolution and electricity 
was to truly marking the “end of the era of muscle.” Nye successfully equates high 
energy use and American expectations of abundant energy to a classically "liberal, 
laissez-faire ideology" of self-reliant individualism, a "technological Lockeanism" that 
empowers Americans with "new fuels and new energy sources."15 
To further this point, in 1994, the US Air Force limitedly distributed a report that 
12 
clearly outlined strategic attacks against national electric systems in Germany, Japan, 
Vietnam, Desert storm and other conflict zones.16 Though there were several noted 
failures on these planned attacks, the strategy aimed to slow economic growth. In 
Vietnam, factories without power were forced to craft replacement tools by hand. In 
Germany, electric grid attacks were not prioritized, against the wish of Secretary 
Morgenthau, because highly interconnected systems are able to redirect power if the 
transmission line network is reasonably in tact. This report exemplifies the economic 
impact of electrification on peace, conflict, and society. 
In more recent years, stabilization of peace through conflict has been waged 
through data attacks. From the Olympic Games17 to Waking Shark II18 there is a new, 
vulnerable network of economic fuel. The transition in drills protecting electric grids to 
15 Nye, D. E. (1998). Consuming power a social history of American energies. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT 
Press. 
16 www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA425504 
17 In 2010, the US began launching targeted cyber attacks on Iranian centrifuges, a military strategy dubbed 
the Olympic Games - Schmidt, E., & Cohen, J. (2013). The New Digital Age: Reshaping the future of 
people, nations and business. New York City: Knopf Publishing Group. 
18 A series of planned cyber attack drills against British banking systems. (Reuters)
Internet networks demonstrates a paradigm shift in societies primary economic fuel. The 
Big Switch is well documented by Nicholas Carr, in his 2008 book.19 Carr argues that 
technology can shape a society. Society is shaped by economics, by the efficiency of 
consuming and producing goods because ultimately it is the competitive marketplace that 
guarantees the most efficiency systems of consumption and production will prevail. 
Electricity prevailed to the point where its consumption is no longer a choice. Soon this 
choice will no longer exist for the Internet either. To be anti-technology is an arguably 
worthless cause and will be futile in the end. Electricity extended man’s physical powers, 
and Internet extends our intellectual powers. Facets of our society from public education, 
mass culture, class structure to a shift to service economy we assume as fundamental are 
increasingly reliant on Internet enabled technology.20 
13 
There is one particularly intriguing excerpt where Carr quotes Lewis Mumford’s 
1970, The Pentagon of Power: “ Western society,” he wrote, “has accepted as 
unquestionable a technological imperative that is quite as arbitrary as the most primitive 
taboo: not merely the duty to foster invention and constantly to create technological 
novelties, but equally the duty to surrender to these novelties unconditionally, just 
because they are offered, without respect to their human consequences.” In response, 
Carr wrote: 
“His error lay in suggesting that we might do otherwise. The technological 
imperative that has shaped the Western is not arbitrary, nor is our surrender it its 
discretionary. The fostering of invention and the embrace of the new technologies 
that results are not “Duties” that we have somehow chosen to accept. They’re the 
19 Carr, N. G. (2008). The big switch: rewiring the world, from Edison to Google. New York: W.W. Norton 
& Co. 
20 Ibid, p. 20-26
consequences of economics forces that lie largely beyond our control. By looing at 
technology in isolation, Mumford failed to see that the path of technological progress 
and its human consequences are determined not simply by advances in science and 
engineering, but more decisively, by the influence of technology on the costs of 
producing and consuming foods and services.” 
If the Internet will not be a choice as theorized by Carr, then it is arguably even more 
essential for economic stability that it be accessible. Economic inequality exasperates 
societal inequality; a sense of disenfranchisement threatens peace. 
Society is defined by a series of economic trade offs, therefore economic stability 
14 
is essential to a stable society. He concludes with how societal stability and economics 
stability are correlated through evidence that political stability leads to growth, and 
growth sustains political stability. Electricity was invented in American and led to its 
superpower status in the 20th century. Internet was also invented in American will 
continue to be essential to growth and American stability in the 21st century. 
The second half of Carr’s book, and many of his subsequent writings, focus on 
how cheap, utility supplied computing will ultimately change society as profoundly as 
cheap electricity did. The new economics of doing business online has become a boon to 
consumers. The World Wide Web’s most frequented websites were once expensive, and 
are now all virtually free. Richard Barbrook, of the University of Westminster in London, 
expressed this view well in his 1998 essay, “The Hi Tech Gift Economy. He wrote of 
Internet users: “Unrestricted by physical distance, they collaborate with each other 
without the direct mediation of money or politics. Unconcerned about copyright, they 
give and receive information without through of payment. In the absence of states or
15 
markets to mediate social bonds, network communities are instead formed through the 
mutual obligations created by gifts of time and ideas.”21 
Even with all those freedoms, economists continue to argue the causes of growing 
inequality in developed economies. Distinguished Columbia economist Jagdish Bhagwati 
argues that computerization is the main cause behind the two-decades-long stagnation of 
middle-class wages. He argues that although there are more jobs, they require lower skill 
sets and place “relentless” pressure on wages. 
A widely cited and influential report on this economic impact was produced by 
the McKinsey Global Institute in 2011 entitled, Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping 
impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity which embodies a more optimistic outlook on the 
impact of the Internet. It concludes that, “Understanding just how much the Internet 
contributes to national economies should spur government and business leaders to seek 
ways to optimize their participation in the global Internet ecosystem. Encouraging usage 
is an unavoidable first step in leveraging public spending but leaders but also focus on 
providing human capital, financial capital, infrastructure, and the appropriate business 
environment.” This conjecture is based on many empirical studies complied by 
McKinsey that show clear results of positive economic impact (Figure 5). 
Vinton Cerf, one of the founders of the modern Internet and pioneer of the 
Internet Freedom Declaration, is a strong believer in the Internet of Things and prefers a 
more market-based approach than the McKinsey report. He is a prolific futurist who 
writes about a world where any flat surface will become a reasonable surface for 
Bluetooth enabled projectors tucked away in buttonholes. He is also aware of the 
Internet’s finite capacity for quality, “Are we solving problems, learning how to 
21 Ibid., 141
multitask? Is that a good thing? I don’t know. It’s a little bit like television. When it 
arrived there were many expectations that it would improve education and everything 
else. But what we discovered is there’s a finite amount of quality in the universe, and 
when there are more channels it has to be cut up into smaller and smaller amounts until 
finally, every channel delivers close to zero quality, and that’s where we are today, with a 
few exceptions,” he recently revealed in an interview The Smithsonian.22 
Cerf adamantly believes that regulation will stifle the potential of the Internet. He 
argues that it was founded with a fundamental design of autonomous networks with 
universal freedom. While his dissent is largely focused on the 42 nations (out of 72 
studied in the Open Net Initiative) that filter and censor content that “threaten online free 
expression,” he is also vocally dissents the International Telecommunications Union’s 
increasing involvement in Internet regulation. The United Nations ITU’s treaty was based 
on telecommunications. He does not believe this lays a workable context for Internet 
policy. Rather, he prefers to endorse the multi-stake holder approach of the Internet 
Engineering Task Force organized by the Internet Society non profit (p. 31) Cerf writes, 
“While some governments argue that the internet needs new global rules to speed its 
rollout in the developing world, we believe the present market-driven approach is best 
positioned to keep up with the net's exponential growth. Broadband services are being 
rolled out. Service interruptions remain rare. Within a few years the net is predicted to be 
serving four billion users -- more than half of humanity!”23 
16 
Overall, the breadth of literature on the economic impact of electricity far 
outweighs that of literature on the economic impact of the Internet. The parallels between 
22 http://www.smithsonianmag.com/specialsections/40th-anniversary/Vinton-Cerf-on-Where-the-Internet- 
Will-Take-Us.html 
23 http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/29/business/opinion-cerf-google-internet-freedom/
the two sets of analysis provide a platform for interesting insight, qualified policy 
recommendations, and a strong context within which to research this paper’s theory and 
objective. 
17 
Evolution of Economic Power 
In economic times defined by resource scarcity, it is critical that the Internet not 
be one of these scarce resources as it provides a gateway to collect, process, and 
disseminate crucial information for economic sustainability for types of end users. Access 
to electricity’s byproducts, such as heat, is considered a human right in many parts of the 
world. Access to Internet’s byproducts will also be considered a human right, for 
example access to social media networks will be comparable to the universal freedom of 
expression. These byproducts are critical components to peace. 
Power is essential to economic productivity. If there is low electricity capacity, it 
is not expected that lights dim. So why if there is lower broadband capacity it is accepted 
to data processing time increases dramatically? How economic forces and policies have 
adjusted to the power of these power utilities is an increasingly important aspect to 
understanding why bridging the digital divide, like bridging the electro divide, will be 
continue to be good economics. 
Muscle Power 
Finite resources incite conflict. When a necessary resource is framed as scarce, 
nations will ensure resource security to maintain or increase productivity status quo.
18 
Security will be defined as predictable macro-level output flow. Resource can be 
interpreted as, including but limited to: natural resource, trade route, or labor. A key 
characteristic of all resources is vital contribution to national economies; without a 
particular resource, a market failure occurs. 
Muscle was man’s first source of economic power. From brute strength to subtle 
ingenuity, man transformed society by adding value to economic markets. The power of 
man eventually became so sought after that the power of one man was not enough for one 
man alone. The desire to be able to own more than one could produce led to slave trade. 
A quest for resource security can cause instability when it requires breaching 
sovereignty of another party’s rights to resource access. In the short run, resource 
acquisition, regardless of the means, can promote internal stability; however, in the long 
run, exploitative means of acquisition can incite internal and external conflicts. 
There are several examples in history where resources are exploited, denied, 
stolen, or purchased at a high cost in order to maintain security, or economic stability. 
Labor is a valuable resource for a productive society. Often times the value of labor is not 
reflected in its direct cost to producers. Workers’ value-add and pay are traditionally, and 
intentionally, incongruent. A profit maximizing company will withhold a percentage of 
every worker’s economic output in order to avoid full compensation. 24 This holds 
particularly true in industries with few potential employers. Oligopolistic markets are 
able to consistently underpay workers’ of their full value because labor markets becomes 
specialized, so their skills are not directly transferable to other markets where they may 
have potential for higher earnings. 
24 Nicholson, W. & Snyder, C. (2012). Microeconomic theory: basic principles and extensions (11th ed.). 
Mason, Ohio: South-Western/Cengage Learning.
An extreme form of 
resource exploitation is 
slavery. Labor output is 
maximized in a slave 
economy because the 
economic output generated 
by slave labor far 
outweighs its costs. In the 
Figure 3 
1700s, the US only imported 6% of all slaves traded in the Americas, yet by 1825 the US 
had nearly a quarter of all blacks in the region. Slaves on cotton plantations worked on 
average 3,000 hours per week – about 2.25 times the labor output of a modern factory 
worker.25 The US South had tremendous global economic power in the mid 19th century. 
In the short term, slavery was able to support a burgeoning economy. 
A recent study published by the Paris School of Economics reveals the economic 
19 
power of the US slave system: slave wealth outweighed transportation and industrial 
wealth, combined, from 1700 to 1860.26 As the US North moved towards an 
industrialized economy, it was no longer favorable to have such a large portion of US 
economic wealth be dependent on slavery, a workforce specialized in agriculture. 
However, US South’s population remained about 43% enslaved blacks.27 
The exploitation of this labor resource inevitably led to the internal conflict 
between the US North and the US South in the longer term. The American Revolution, 
25 http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/slavery-and-anti-slavery/resources/facts-about-slave-trade-and- 
slavery 
26 http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.com/zucman-gabriel/capitalisback/PikettyZucman2013WP.pdf 
27 http://www.bowdoin.edu/~prael/lesson/tables.htm
the US’s Civil War, was fueled by an ideological debate on economic resources - with 
slavery the US South was determined to maintain its economics power; without slavery 
the US North was determined to capitalize on industrialism’s growing portion of overall 
economic wealth. Slavery was an economic resource that was necessary for one side’s 
economic survival and detrimental to the others. The US Civil War results in 640,000 
causalities. In 1860 the national debt was $65 million, in 1865 the national debt stood at 
$7.2 billion; the annual budget soared from $63 million to $300 million. Conflict is 
expensive. To put it in perspective, when George Washington took the president the 
national debt was $77 million.28 After two wars, expanding across the continent, the 
national debt had decreased; the US was prospering. The cost of prevention, the cost of 
maintaining cheap and accessible economic fuels, yields a net positive cost-benefit 
analysis. 
20 
This proves the volatility of the quest for resource security. This is no 
endorsement for slavery and does not diminish the violence of slavery. The US South’s 
economic stability can be attributed to their uninhibited access to their self-proclaimed 
economic manifest of agricultural superpower fueled by free labor. When the US South’s 
primary economic resource, free labor, went from an abundant good to a scare good, the 
shift in the market supply of this critical resource incited economic, political, and social 
instability, which resulted in many lives lost. Today, slavery still exists although the 
necessary economic fuel can be attained with far fewer and grave negative externalities. 
The cheaper and more accessible subsequent economic fuels, such as electricity or 
nuclear energy, become the less reason there will be for conflict ridden power sources 
around the world. 
28 http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/the-economic-costs-of-the-civil-war#axzz2mpB8iX00
21 
Electrical Power 
In 1893, Chicago hosted the Columbian Exposition. The fairgrounds were 
constructed on a 633-acre site on Lake Michigan to form a city within a city. The 
exposition celebrated advances in industry, transportation, and the arts, but most of all it 
celebrated the arrival of electricity as the nation’s new animating force. The organizers of 
the event wrote that it was their intention “to make the World’s Fair site one grand 
exemplification of the progress that has been made in electricity.” During the fair, the 
exposition consumed three times as much electricity as the rest of the City of Chicago.29 
Henry Adams described the light show in his autobiography, The Education of 
Henry Adams, with humility and awe. He believed that the machines “would result in 
infinite costless energy within a generation,” and a “new phase in society.” He realized 
that this new phase entailed many unknowns: “Chicago asked in 1893 for the fist time the 
question whether the American people knew where they were driving.” The electrical 
grid brought profound change and quickly reshaped business and society. “In short, the 
central supply of cheap electricity altered the economics of everyday life. What had been 
scarce, the energy needed to power industrial machines, run household appliances, light 
lights, became abundant,” writes Nicholas Carr. Electricity was the force behind the 
Industrial Revolution. Light and power allowed factory workers to scale their operations 
and boost outputs. Large corporations emerged as small businesses were able to 
continuously communicate across distant mergers and acquisitions. Electricity brought 
forth new communication and computation tools, such as the telephone network and the 
29 Carr, p. 86
22 
punch card tabulator. This created complex internal bureaucracies that were able to 
handle a wider breadth and further depth of tasks. 
Productivity did not just increase because managers were able to quantify output 
faster and accurately with electric machines. Electric byproducts such as fans for clean 
airflow, stronger illumination to ease work conditions, and less gear and pulley systems 
to reduce accidents increased the general health and productivity of factory workers. The 
introduction of light bulbs and electric motors did have its downsides. For example, 
workers were no longer expected to hone specific crafts or skills. The ability to operate a 
machine displaced artisan talent. Humans became machine-like; Frederick W. Taylor, an 
influential engineer of the time, went so far to time specific movements of workers to 
maximize mass production. 
Before electrification, an innovation like an assembly line seemed unattainable. 
With the debut of Henry Ford’s automated line in 1913 at his car plant, it was clear that it 
was built on the “assumption that electrical power should be available everywhere,” notes 
historian David Nye in his book Consuming Power30. Ford himself commented how, 
“without high-speed tools and the finer steels which they brought about, there could be 
nothing of what we call modern industry.”31 Henry Ford’s influence on what we call 
modern industry and modern society did not stop at the end of the factory line. In order 
to incentivize workers to remain in their tedious jobs he doubled wages across the board. 
The business world was upset, but they knew they had to respond when 15,000 men lined 
up for 3,000 vacant positions outside of Ford’s plant. This industry wide wage increase 
30 Nye, p.141 
31 Ford, Henry; Crowther, Samuel (1930). Edison as I Know Him. New York: Cosmopolitan Book 
Company. p. 15 (on line edition).
played an important role in the development of the middle class, which turned out to be a 
vast and relatively prosperous sector of society. 
23 
As electrification continued to spur specification, upper level management jobs 
were created and the “knowledge worker” and their white collars were born.32 That led to 
what Harvard economist Claudia Goldin has termed, “the greatest transformation of 
American education.”33 Within a generation, attending secondary school became 
commonplace. This enabled a virtuous cycle for electricity utilities. The new middle and 
upper class used their wages to purchase household electric appliance such as toasters 
and refrigerators. The increased demand pushed down production costs. This economic 
cycle created a huge market for an array of electrically powered products. Now utilities 
were providing energy sources to factories that also created products that required 
electricity access. This led to even greater economies of scale for utilities that allowed 
them to cut electric rates further and spur even more demand for their current and the 
appliances that ran on it. 
The economic effects, and extended social effects, of electricity brought visions 
of utopian society. People were told that electrification would cleanse the Earth of, 
“disease and strife, turning it into a pristine new Eden.”34 Futurists in the early 20th 
century wrote about “electrified water” that would be “the most powerful of 
disinfectants,” and that, “by the all potent power of electricity, man is now able to convert 
an entire continent into a tropical garden at his pleasure.” (Those futurists were not far 
off. Ionized water is frequently used to sterilize hospitals and Dubai has a fully climatized 
32 Carr, p. 89 
33 Claudia Goldin, “Egalitarianism and the Returns to Education During the Great Transformation of 
American Education,” Journal of Political Economy 107 (December 1999), S65-S94 
34 Electrifying America: social meanings of a new technology, 1880-1940. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. 
p. 149-50
ski slope in the middle of the desert.) When society has the ability to choose health and to 
choose paradise because a larger proportion of the population is empowered through 
electricity access, higher wages, consistent education, and safer shelter each day becomes 
more predictable. Predictability is an important component of economic stability, and 
peace; there is no immediate reason to be up in arms when tomorrow is expected to be at 
least as successful as yesterday. 
24 
The impacts of electrification would not have been possible without the 
standardization of the electric system. Critical to electric utilities’ success were universal 
standards that allowed the electric grid to truly act as one machine. If factory 
components, wires, or other production elements greatly varied, economies of scale 
would have been reduced. To avoid such scenarios, utilities and manufacturers 
established national and international associations to negotiate standards, share patents, 
learn best practices, and engage with government agencies. From the International 
Electrotechnical Commission to the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, the 
network of standardizing organizations is expansive, yet effective. Beyond outlet 
adapters, there is virtually no additional effort necessary to access electricity sources 
anywhere in the world. Products designed in the United States, produced in China, and 
sold in Australia can also be shipped to Germany or Ghana with equally complex supply 
chains. The global economy exists because of the economic impacts of electrification on 
the enhanced production process, global communications and the standardizations around 
it. 
Another importance factor in creating the “one machine,” was evolving away 
from Edison’s original local electricity generator network, to large generation plants that
could transport current much further distances. “While Edison was vainly trying to hold 
back progress, Insull was moving to capitalize on it. He was the first to realize, that with 
new technologies, electricity supply could be consolidated in immense central stations 
that would be able to meet the demands of even the largest industrial customers.”35 With 
the advent of alternating currents, central power stations were critical to releasing higher 
voltage with lower loss along transmission lines. 
Figure 4 
25 
Today, electricity is a critical resource for all modern economies. For most 
developed nations, electricity is framed as being in abundance. There are no caps on 
electricity access that force consumers to think twice about connecting several devices to 
the electrical grid.36 Regulating electricity consumption is widely considered a step back 
from the progress resulting from electrification. In 2009, California passed a bill that will 
require all television sets to be twice as efficient by 2013. Governor Schwarzenegger 
hailed the legislation as a step towards combating climate change and reducing consumer 
35 Carr, p. 39 
36 Electronic rationing is considered a last resort policy in times of energy crisis. For example, in 2001, 
Brazil was forced to implement energy rationing to avoid exasperating drought, which was considered 
more disruptive than a temporary rationing.
costs, not as an attempt to conserve resources.37 Aside from decades of Malthusian doom-mongering 
on the state of energy resources, all credible reports indicate an abundance of 
energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, and alternative energy investments that 
can supply an estimated 40 to 100 years of current consumption levels.38 Electricity is in 
abundance. Markets and consumers are confident that electricity will always be available 
and supply all demands, in a standardized manner. This future confidence is important for 
economic stability, and ultimately peace. 
26 
Electricity supply is dictated by consumer demand. It is expensive to store 
because of technology shortages, yet expected to always be available. The peak capacity 
hours of electricity use are expected to be as efficiently satiated as low capacity hours. 
According to BP Statistical Review data, energy capacity and energy generation (or 
capacity considering instantaneous consumption due to storage shortages) correlate at a 
96% rate globally.39 Demand for electricity is exponentially increasing. It is projected 
that world energy consumption will grow by 56% from 2010 to 2040.40 Because energy 
is in abundance, the 96% correlation rate will not suffer – it is only expected to grow with 
technology improvements. 
Not all regions have energy abundance. There are 1.3 billion people without 
access to electricity and 2.3 billion people that rely on traditional biomass for cooking.41 
The implications on education42 and healthcare are tangible. Burning biomass for cooking 
37 http://hometheater.about.com/b/2009/11/18/california-energy-commissions-approves-tv-efficiency-regulations. 
htm 
38 http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2013/03/07/we-live-in-an-age-of-energy-abundance/ 
39 http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_ele_gen_ter_hou_sha_of_tot-generation-terawatt-hours-share-total 
40 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm 
41 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/#d.en.8630 
42 “Energy access has real implications for educational attainment across the continent. Only half of 
primary school students in Abu Hasheem, a small south-eastern state in Sudan, received passing grades on
typically results in an open flame in a small, unventilated space, often in rural and urban 
slums. This practice kills 1.6 million people a year, requires on average 10 miles of 
walking and 35% of incomes spent on collecting wood, and produces the equivalent of 40 
cigarettes a day.43 In 2013, The Paradigm Project, a US State Department funded energy 
efficient stove distributor, has increased local incomes by more than $2 million by 
supplying 195,000 stoves. The cost per life impact is low and its impact high. The 82 
million hours saved by the Paradigm Project are now redistributed to education, and other 
positive economic activity.44 Though economic impact of providing sustainable energy 
sources to communities around the globe is constantly increasing the launch of programs 
such as the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All and the Obama Administration’s Power 
Africa initiatives demonstrate the willingness to achieve universal electrification. 
27 
A major component of this political willingness to invest in electricity 
infrastructure is its low prices. Government action has been able to successfully 
manipulate economic forces to drive down the price of this essential utility. For example, 
initially in the early 1900s, electric rates in the northeast were significantly lower than the 
rates reported in southern cities. These differences are, “due to differences in customer 
densities, learning by doing, and operating costs of generation plants45.” The northeast 
began electrifying earlier so that costs of operation had fallen and many of the networks, 
such as the Edison system in New York, relied on coal fired steam generation. “Many of 
the utilities in the South did not adopt coal-fired steam until after the passage of the 
their exams in 2007. That number increased to 100 percent after the Sudan Multi Donor Fund-National 
sponsored a project to provide solar power to the community. Success rates like this can be achieved across 
sub-Saharan Africa if more schools were provided with solar lights or other means of access to electricity.” 
http://www.one.org/us/2013/07/03/a-classrooms-worst-nightmare-energy-poverty/ 
43 http://theparadigmproject.net/more-about-the-problem 
44 Ibid. 
45http://www.stanford.edu/group/SITE/archive/SITE_2012/2012_segment_3/2012_Segment_3_papers/kitc 
hens.pdf
28 
Federal Water Power Act in 1920.” The act regulated interstate waterways, which 
incentivized private utilities to make the shift to coal. “These coal fired plants led to 
competitive electric rates that were among the lowest in the nation.”46 
The evolution of electricity access has fundamentally changed over the past 
century through consumer demand, economic policy, and corporate decisions. The 
coordination of these decisions through standardization, ensuring abundance, and 
encouraging technological advancement has provided millions of people around the 
world access to power. Electricity access provides opportunity to join a global network of 
communication and productivity. Today, electricity is no longer this only predominant 
economic fuel – the role of the Internet is increasingly exponentially. 
Information Power 
According to the researchers at the 
2011 G8 conference, the electricity 
revolution required 50 years to 
mature; and the Internet revolution 
has taken only 15 years to reach the 
same level of impact.47 In 1989, no 
company had a public facing web-presence. 
Figure 5 
In less than two decades, nearly two-thirds of all businesses worldwide have 
Internet presence. If the Internet were a sector, it would produce more economic activity 
46Ibid. 
47 McKinsey Global Institute "Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and 
prosperity." http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters. May 2011. 
McKinsey and Company. Accessed October 2013.
29 
than agriculture or utilities. Globally, Internet activity contributes to 2.9% of global per 
capita GDP, a total $1.7 billion. The majority of that activity comes from private 
consumption, followed by public expenditures.48 49 The Internet has contributed net 
positive contribution to the economy because for every one job lost to new efficiencies, 
2.3 jobs are created.50 As electricity was the crux of modern industry, Internet is an 
emerging crux of the modern economy. 
To better compare the evolution of electricity access to Internet access, it is 
important to expound on the notion that the Internet is not owned by a single entity, 
rather it is a network of computers. The very name Internet comes from the notion of 
interconnected networks. Every computer that connects to an Internet Service Provider 
(ISP) is part of the network. A computer at a residence would typically connect over a 
conventional phone, cable modem, or digital subscription. A computer at a business 
would typically connect to an ISP over a local area network (LAN). Large ISPs will 
connect these networks over a Point of Presence (POP) for respective regions. So that 
Computer A in POP 1 can connect with Computer B in POP 2, there is a high level 
network of network access points (NAPs) rather than an overall controlling network. 
Trillions of bytes of data flow between NAPs. A byte is a unit of data typically eight 
binary digits long that represents a word, number, symbol, or piece of an image. For 
example, computer storage is measured in byte multiples such as 820 mega bytes. To 
avoid data redundancies and clogging the connections of “innocent bystanders”, routers 
determine where to send data from one computer to another. The lines over which routers 
and networks operate are called backbones, or fiber optic trunk lines. Fiber optics lines, 
48 Ibid. 
49 Ibid. 
50 Ibid.
or optical carriers (OC), can carry much more data at faster speeds than, for example, 
modems. NAPs can organize information in seconds between different networks because 
every device on the Internet has an Internet Protocol (IP) address. There are 4.3 billion 
possible IP addresses. However, to recognize IP address 216.27.22.162 versus 
214.28.32.174 is not conducive 
to the average user so the 
Domain Name System (DNS) 
was established. DNS 
automatically maps text 
names to IP addresses within 
domains such as .com or .org. 
Within each domain, there are 
Figure 6 
millions of uniform resource locators (URLs) that include a host name such as www. and 
the domain name. The possible range of host and domain names is limitless as long as the 
system is flexible to accommodate alternative IP address versions.51 
30 
In 1982, NSFNET was decommissioned. This marked the beginning of Internet 
commercialization. Previous to NSFNET, a network maintained by the National Science 
Foundation for education and research purposes, the other primary supernetwork was 
ARPANET, maintained by the Department of Defense. The DoD mandated the 
standardization of protocols, particularly the standardization of the previously mentioned 
IPs or TCPs (transmission control protocol). However, the dozens of web vendors at the 
time were not aware of the real technology or value ad of TCP/IP. They regarded the 
51 http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/how-it-works/technical-aspects
DoD mandate as a nuisance.52 After several rounds of working groups convened by the 
US government and other internet advocacy groups, the Internet Engineering Task Force 
(IETF) emerged as the body that would maintain these standards and protocols after the 
decommissioning of government run networks. IETF ran Interop tradeshows around the 
world that demonstrated the utility of interoperability between network providers, 
regardless of their competitive status. 
31 
IETF was founded in 1986 by the nonprofit, Internet Society, in California, and 
consisted of 21 US government funded researchers. The mission of IETF is, “to make the 
Internet work better by producing high-quality, relevant technical documents that 
influence the way people design, use, and manage the Internet.”53 It is one of many 
national and international associations guiding the standardization of the Internet. Similar 
to the dozens of organizations referenced in electricity standardization, the method of 
how data is written and transported is well documented. Where the standardization of 
electricity and the Internet has not yet met, is in the standardization of methods of access 
and access reliability. 
While IP addresses, URL codes, and binary numbers are generally considered 
standardized there can be a significant gap when technologies are transferred from 
network to network. A new economy has emerged from the 2.5 billion connected devices 
with unique IP addresses to the Internet (2009). In 2020, there will be up to 30 billion 
devices connected with unique IP addresses, most of which will be physical products, 
such as smartwatches or Wi-Fi enabled cameras. It is predicted that the economic value 
add for the Internet of Things will be $1.9 trillion dollars in 2020 with potential benefit 
52 http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/what-internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet# 
Commercialization 
53 http://www.ietf.org/about/mission.html
for a wide range of industries, such as: healthcare, retail, and transportation.54 
“Computing power will be cheap and covert. We won’t know it is there; it will be in our 
jewelry and in our clothing,” says Mr. Sondergaard of Gartner. “We will throw more 
computers into our laundry in a week than we’ve used in our lifetimes so far.”55 
32 
However, the products of the Internet of Things are connected by different radio 
technologies. Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular broadband (i.e. 2G), and ZigBee56 use different 
data rates57 that prohibit users from universal access to the information their device can 
provide. For example, a GSM enabled wristwatch will not be able to automatically 
connect to a neighboring Wi-Fi connection. If the smartwatch is able to roam across 
networks, that arrangement required a business agreement with all involved network 
carriers and common protocols. There have been many efforts by national and 
international Internet standardization organizations to make roaming simpler. Untethering 
devices from specific networks is critical to being able to gain economies of scale; if the 
same household energy smart meter can be deployed to Sacramento, CA and Sochi, 
Russia the price of manufacturing will decrease and make high tech products more 
accessible to all ranges of the global socio-economic spectrum. 
The current issue is that efforts to standardize network arrangements are ad hoc. 
In 2012, seven major carriers decided to procure a common network management 
54 http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2602817 
55 Ibid. 
56 “ZigBee is new specification for a suite of high-level communication protocols used to create personal 
area networks built from small, low-power digital radios. Applications include wireless light switches, 
electrical meters with in-home-displays, traffic management systems, and other consumer and industrial 
equipment that requires short-range wireless transfer of data at relatively low rates.” (Wikipedia) 
57 The speed at which a bit of data is transferred from machine to machine. In order to be considered 
broadband, the ITU Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) has established a minimum 256 
kbits/s. Data rates are considered asymmetric (supporting higher download that upload rates) and non 
reliable because of frequency traffic bottlenecks. (Wikipedia)
platform.58 They did not agree to change their fundamental technology; rather they hired 
a third-party vendor to bridge their differences. These differences are crucial for the 
Internet of Things to have the same economic impact as electrification did. As the 
Internet is creating more high skills jobs, the demand for Internet connected things will 
increase, similar to how the purchases of refrigerators once sky-rocketed. Amazon’s 
Kindle e-reader is the most popular dedicated e-reader in the world.59 However, Amazon 
has a “home” network with AT&T, a large US-based ISP. If a Kindle reader wants to 
download a new magazine issue without a free Wi-Fi connection, they will have to pay 
high fees to roam onto another ISPs broadband. Interoperability between networks is 
increasingly essential, as many estimate that by 2017 mobile phones, tablets and ultra-mobile 
33 
PCs to represent more than 80 percent of new device purchase.60 Low power 
prices were one of the most crucial aspects of electricity adoption, and the efforts to 
bridge gaps in energy poverty. For the price of information power to also decline, there 
is, arguably, a need for greater incentive for ISPs to standardize network technologies and 
network management. 
The degree of access between these modes is important to differentiate. Cellular 
bandwidth serves limited purpose compared to broadband. Data download, program 
testing, and large interactive graphic files have significantly diminished utility on a 
cellular bandwidth connection. The primary reason why cellular bandwidth is not a direct 
substitute for other connections is because it is localized and has a capacity cap. When 
there are many devices trying to connect to the same cellular bandwidth connection, the 
58 http://www.vimpelcom.com/Media-center/Press-releases/2012/KPN-NTT-Docomo-Rogers-SingTel- 
Telefonica-Telstra-and-VimpelCom-to-cooperate-globally-in-M2M-business/ 
59 http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml 
60 http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2602817
bandwidth caps out. With current technology, cellular bandwidth is not responsive to 
demand. The peak capacity, the maximum amount of bandwidth the respective customer 
base could demand at any given moment, is controlled by bandwidth providers at a 
profit-maximizing supply ceiling and is not controlled by pure market demand forces. 
This supply ceiling limits users’ productivity and overall utility. The assumption of 
abundance was critical to the expansion of electricity and many of its positive 
byproducts, such as Henry Ford’s assembly line. 
34 
Unlike electricity where currents are standardized across large regions, the 
strength of broadband signal is not predictable. The FCC reports that nearly 97% of the 
US has broadband access, however broadband adoption rates hover on average around 
60%. Broadband versus dial up modem, for example, allow for higher upload and 
download data rates. (Figure 6) A report published by the Department of Commerce after 
the 2010 US Census also showed insight into how different socioeconomic groups have 
different access strength.61 If electric current strength changed across regions, the 
industry’s economic of scale would have been seriously diminished. Economies of scale 
are critical to low prices, and universal accessibility. Additionally, as previously 
discussed, predictability is at the core of economic stability; it is unsustainable to have 
unpredictable access to information that incessantly shapes micro and macro economic 
decision-making. 
It is not only people with low socioeconomic status who are forced to rely on low 
strength wireless devices for Internet connections. For those living in remote, rural areas, 
wired Internet access is not an option no matter how much they’re willing to pay. The 
FCC reports that 19 million Americans live in communities beyond the reach of cable 
61 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30719.pdf
companies or other broadband providers. This “access divide” between broadband, dial 
up, and mobile cellular bandwidth is particularly important as mobile Internet access is 
increasing globally, particularly in regions such coastal Africa and Asia with limited 
existing infrastructure. According to a Media Actions Grassroots Network press release, 
‟A cell phone or mobile device is not a substitute for a laptop or desktop computer. Many 
everyday Internet needs such as applying for a job, conducting research, registering for 
classes, or accessing government or social services are difficult or impossible on a mobile 
device.”62 Universal Internet access is not enough to bridge the digital gap; the utility of 
Internet access must also be equitable to truly experience its economic virtues. 
35 
It is clear that the intricate, complex network of the Internet has a tremendous 
effect and potential effect on the global economy. How Internet access will be expanded 
is critical. As with the legislative action that shaped electricity access, such as the1920 
Federal Water Power Act, government action on shaping information power is necessary, 
and inevitable. 
Government policies play a tremendous role in bringing Internet access to or 
limiting access for underserved groups, regions, and countries. For example in Pakistan, 
which is pursuing an aggressive IT policy aimed at boosting its drive for economic 
modernization, the number of Internet users grew from 133,900 (0.1% of the population) 
in 2000 to 31 million (17.6% of the population) in 2011.63 Eastern Europe is renowned 
for its high performing Internet access. Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria 
consistently rank in the top 20 Internet speed rankings. However, access to these high 
speeds lacks, and is nearly half than the European average. Romania’s capital, Bucharest, 
62 http://www.scribd.com/doc/48893472/The-Mobile-Internet-Communities-of-Color-and-Low-Income- 
Families 
63 https://opennet.net/research/profiles/pakistan
often ranks as the top city in Internet speed, yet only 14% of Romanians have consistent 
access to the Internet64. 
The evolution of 
the Internet will continue 
to change and progress. 
As more users access 
information from mobile 
devices, more ISPs 
establish business 
agreements to standardize network management, and government champion access 
expansion projects, the way the Internet affects modern economies and modern societies 
will become more ubiquitous. Access to the Internet will be synonymous to access to 
markets, to trade, to education, to healthcare, and other essential services. As this 
fundamental shift in knowledge management happens through the world’s economies it is 
critical that policy makes and industry are wary of the digital divide. Economic stability 
correlates with economic equality. (Appendix 3) Like the introduction of electric stoves 
is saving thousands of people millions of dollars and hours, technologies that give all 
global citizens the power to perform at the same potential will chip away at the energy 
and information poverty that exists, and holds back progress, today. 
36 
Conclusion 
Technology advances economic power. Economies have progressed from muscle 
power to hydropower to steam power to electric power to oil power to nuclear power and 
64 Eurostat 2013 via https://developers.google.com/chart/ 
Figure 7
37 
now to information power. This evolution is not realized by all economic in the same 
manner. Every economy sets its own value upon every type of economic power source. 
There are thousands of variables that can affect that value systems from ecology to 
population density. However, one virtue for which all economies strive is to be able to 
access whichever economic power source can optimize outputs and increase per capita 
economic growth. Technologies are not omniscient because of market forces. The price 
of a new technology or the society’s ability to adapt in a cost-beneficial timeline can 
restrict opportunities to transition into other forms of economic power. 
Omniscience is a curious variable. In Sri Lanka, 76.6 percent of the population 
has electricity access65; yet, there are 81 active mobile phones per 100 people.66 Mobile 
phones are growing increasingly omniscient in all parts of the world although not ever 
user has access to a personal electricity source to charge a mobile phone.67 It is evident 
that the functions of the mobile phone are important enough for consumers to usurp the 
electricity access issue. Mobile phones are what connect citizens to one another, to 
government services, to bank services, and other vital parts of a functioning economy. 
Smartphone adoption has increased by 39.5% in the past year.68 Connectivity is key. How 
people chose to connect is also transforming. In one day, WhatsApp, a text-messaging 
app that transmits data over the Internet via cellular bandwidth, receives over 7 billion 
inbound messages. Whatsapp messages are not just sent in OECD countries, it is a top 
five most downloaded app in Malaysia, South Africa, and Indonesia.69 Whatsapp is just 
65 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS 
66 http://www.trc.gov.lk/information/statistics.html 
67 Figure 1 
68 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24461213 
69 http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2013/01/02/whatsapp-hits-7-billion-inbound-messages-a-day- 
75-growth-in-four-months/
one example of many technologies that are displacing traditional communication 
methods. Consumers are demanding the virtues of information power all over the world. 
Global electrification has been a long process. Thomas Edison developed the first 
incandescent light bulb and electrical grid in the late 19th century. The standard electrical 
grid went from being able to support a handful to millions of consumers at a moment’s 
notice. The price of electricity has steadily decreased and regulation has increased. It 
must be noted that there are studies that show that market based approaches to electricity 
pricing could further decrease its price in the medium term.70 However, the paths to 
which each economy has chosen to electrify, largely through high levels of regulation, its 
societies have yielded return on their investment. This ROI calculation is a critical aspect 
of economic choices, such as Poland recently forced its largest utility to build a $3.7 
billion power plant which is prospected to be unprofitable after electricity prices fell to a 
five-year low, all for the fear of power shortage.71 Poland is willing to absorb this sunk 
cost because meeting market demand is critical to government and economic stability. An 
ROI calculation that could influence Internet access expansion could have dramatic 
effects on Internet access rates. 
The consumers demand for Internet is growing exponentially. It is necessary that 
consumers can expect uninterrupted, cheap Internet service as consumers do with 
electricity if economies are going to continue to evolve. For every job lost to Internet’s 
efficiencies, 2.3 new jobs are created for the Internet’s growing byproducts and utilities.72 
The power of information is critical to making informed decisions on the micro and 
70 http://economics.mit.edu/files/1484 
71 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-14/poland-defies-power-slump-in-3-7-billion-gamble-energy-markets. 
38 
html 
72 McKinsey & Co.
macro level. Households can avoid banking fees if they are connected to the Internet and 
can receive push notifications that warn them over overdraws. Nations can make smarter 
policy decisions with real time information considering, in the United States for example, 
19% of Internet users post material online about political or social issues and a 
disproportionate amount of these online activist are youth.73 
39 
There are notable scaling efforts taking place around the world. From Pakistan’s 
Open Net Initiative, the President Obama’s ConnectEd policy platform which plans to, 
“connect 99 percent of America’s students to the internet through high-speed broadband 
and high-speed wireless within 5 years,” and phase out printed text books by 2016.74 This 
will be a particularly expensive endeavor if there is publicly owned ISP. When even the 
most sophisticated cellular data plans have data limits and when 40% of US households 
chose not purchase high speed Internet plans, action must still be taken to lower the price 
of information. Again, universal Internet access is not enough to bridge the digital gap; 
the utility of Internet access must also be equitable to truly experience its economic 
virtues. 
There is a discrepancy between the importance of speed and access in global 
internet access expansion policy, arguably because unlike electricity where currents 
strength is standardized, data rates and network management have not yet found 
inflection points like Sam Insull did with the push for central supply stations. The 
Internet needs a champion, like electricity had Insull. It is unacceptable, for example, to 
receive this type message while writing this paper at one of the top 50 American 
education institutions: 
73 http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2009/15--The-Internet-and-Civic-Engagement.aspx 
74 http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/06/06/what-connected
40 
Figure 8 
The business leaders, policy makers, and consumers that shape the Internet 
everyday must look to the parallels of electrification to find reason to bring down the 
price of accessing information, to be able to access it anytime and any place, and to be 
able to realize maximum potential utility from all the economic power it has to offer to all 
citizens of the world. Without access to this power source, the digital divide will stricken 
societies into economic and knowledge poverty, a potential cost that has already been 
unnecessarily realized by energy poverty. The tools to standardize, supply peak capacity, 
and offer high levels of utility exist – now it is up to the will economic influencers to 
truly bridge the digital divide, and maintain a steady path towards peace.
41 
Appendix 1 
Appendix 2
42 
Appendix 3

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*Draft: Pathway to Peace through the Digital Divide

  • 1. Laura Mueller-Soppart Northeastern University Capstone Political Science 2013 A Path to Peace between the Digital Divide: Why quality Internet access is critical to economic stability through the lens of electrification trends Abstract Peace is derived through predictability, when society can rely on knowing tomorrow will be at least as successful as yesterday, the incentive to dissent is low. Security, society, politics, and economies are critical components to peace. This paper takes the perspective that economic stability is the most fundamental to maintaining stability in all other components. An increasingly important variable in the global economy is the Internet. Since the Internet is not owned by a single entity, rather it functions through a diverse network of computers, the evolution of Internet access must be handled thoughtfully in order to avoid deepening the digital divide. The evolution of electricity access is a strong parallel for business leader, policy makes, and consumers to reference because of how critical electricity and the Internet have become to economic activity, modern society and therefore critical to peace. The author finds that standardization, quality access, and abundant supply are critical to the ongoing successes of electrification efforts, and have the same opportunity for success in the effort to achieve universal Internet access.
  • 2. 2 Introduction Global society has witnessed many transitions from conflict to peace. The components to a sustainable period of peace are endlessly interrelated. In the several decades after the end of conflict eras, from post colonialism to post revolution, the spread of peace in developing nations has been particularly complicated. These nascent nations exemplify the importance that all components of peace be strong and stable. There is a security transition. Crime, violence, and corruption are answered by a rise of public security and adequate institutions for enforcement. There is a political transition. A body of rules stands against violations of human and economic rights and encourages inclusive governance. There is a social transition. Ethnic, religious, sectarian, class or ideological confrontation that leads to internal conflict, often with regional implications, must give in to national identity so that all can live with each other and address future grievances through peaceful means. There is an economic transition. Mismanaged and illicit economies give way to stable and functioning economies where all citizens have the ability to earn a living wage. Each of these components is necessary for the others to thrive.1 Much attention is afforded to the security, political, and social transitions at the expense of the economic transition. The economic component is the most crucial for the individual. Economic stability is fundamental to the rest, because peace has economic consequences.2 Peace is established with either short- or long-term goals. If the short-term goals, such as food aid, are not complemented with long-term goals, such as infrastructure, peace is unsustainable. How will that society be able to transport the food 1 http://unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/building-peace-and-stability-through-economic-reconstruction-en- 2 Keynes, J. M. (1920). The economic consequences of the peace,. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Howe.
  • 3. 3 it will one day create for itself? For example, after the “economic reconstruction” of Africa in the 1960s, many nations were left with aid dependency (20% to 50% of GDP). These nations also have some of the highest levels of internal conflict.3 Without clear avenues for autonomous economic empowerment, citizens will lose faith in all other institutions to protect their rights. To continue with the example of Africa, it is calculated that the continent’s significant lag in economic development can be attributed to its poor infrastructure. Among poor societies, the power sector is lagging the most in terms of generation capacity, electricity consumption, and supply security. The electrical power infrastructure deficit accounts for two percentage points of lost per capita GDP growth.4 Now these countries with poor economic growth face wider and wider infrastructure gaps to bridge; this widening gap ultimately threatens the achievement of social and political development goals.5 Many studies prove underinvestment in electricity infrastructure as the cause for Africa’s poor growth performance. Poor planning fuels a vicious poverty cycle. Electricity is a critical vehicle for economic growth. High transportation costs and high energy costs deflate economic growth. Infrastructure investment enhances private sector development by lowering the cost of production and opening new markets. When appropriate cost-benefit analyses show positive social and economic impact, infrastructure projects can promote GDP. There is considerable debate around the cost-benefit of rural electrification. However, there is general consensus that electrification provides services that are fundamental to modernization and development goal 3 http://spice.stanford.edu/docs/social_conflict_and_political_violence_in_africa/ 4 http://www.africapartnershipforum.org/48908487.pdf 5 Ibid.
  • 4. achievement. For example, Rwanda is now considered to be a beacon of hope for East Africa. Rwanda has many progressive laws, such as the ban of all plastic bags to eliminate street waste.6 Yet, in rural Rwanda only 1.9% (2009) of the population have access to electricity.7 The lack of electricity access also starkly contrasts with the fact that 45.2% (2010) of Rwandans have mobile devices.8 Clearly, there is a consumer demand to be connected to not only the electric grid, but also be connected to networks outside their own communities. Mobile devices are no longer used to just make telephone calls or send simple text messages. In the past year, there has been a 14% increase in global web traffic via mobile devices, and 16% in Africa and 23% in Asia.9 Today, one in every five people own a smartphone, a data enabled mobile device.10 Demand for information stored on the World Wide Web is clearly increasing, yet access to this information remains very disjointed because the Internet is not owned by a single entity, it is a network of computers. As more and more people and devices demand information from the 6 http://www.theatlanticpost.com/culture/environmentally-cautious-rwanda-maintains-plastic-bag-ban- 3790.html 7 http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/REP_10_231.pdf 8 http://www.statistics.gov.rw/publications/article/rwanda’s-mobile-phone-penetration-rised-over-past-five-years 4 9 Figure 1, Statista StatCounter, Access October 2013 10 http://www.businessinsider.com/smartphone-and-tablet-penetration-2013-10 Figure 1
  • 5. 5 Internet, this network will continue to grow. While growth is an important part to the Internet’s strength, there is a global debate between regulating expansion and leaving growth open to competitors. Many argue that disjointed regulation compromises equal access and efficient infrastructure, and others argue that the Internet is still a nascent technology that needs venture capitalists willing to innovate and take risks. Regardless of the methodology, bridging the digital divide is a critical objective for future development goals.11 The maturation of electricity access had similar growing pains. It is important for policy makers and technology implementers to remember lessons learned from electricity access expansion because electricity and the Internet have undeniably similar affects on society. For example, communication transformed with the introduction of electricity as telecommunications technology was implemented around the world. Similarly, the Internet has again transformed communication. In 1993, only 1% of information was communicated via the Internet, in 2000 it jumped to 51%, and in 2007 over 97% of the world did. In historical terms, the Internet’s takeover was nearly instant.12 The Internet is essential to globalization, making the world a “smaller” more “connected” place where ideas can be exchanged instantaneously to increase productivity, efficiency, and creativity. This paper theorizes that the economic framing of electricity (standardized, cheap, and an in abundance) must be also be applied to the Internet in order to maintain economic stability, and general societal peace. These resources, or economic fuels, are critical to economic stability. As society has progressed from man, to steam, to electric, to information power economies, there have been clear economic winners and losers. The 11 http://pewinternet.org/default.aspx 12 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60
  • 6. divide between these two groups is not sustainable. Today, many societies ensure electric power is always available in abundance; society needs to adapt a similar economic frame of mind for the Internet. The Internet, or information power, accounts for a larger proportion of global economic activity than agriculture.13 The Internet is already a larger and larger global economic influence. Optimizing this economic sector is critical to economic stability, and therefore also critical to all other components of peace. 6 Methodology There are a variety of methodologies that could demonstrate the importance of Internet access to peaceful societies. Security, society, politics, and economics are critical components to peace. As previously discussed, the definition of peace is multifaceted and each component is interdependent, and for the purposes of this paper, economic stability is most fundamental to maintaining stability in all other components. This definition of peace is holds throughout the paper. Various forms of power shape economies. The primary form of power in a given time arguably shapes that era. During eras of primary muscle power to steam power to electric power to information power, respective economies drastically change and therefore all other parts of society do too. This paper does not focus on the transitions from each dominant power source to the next because each remains an important variable to an evolving economy. The effect of the predominant power source is more critical to 13 McKinsey Global Institute "Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity." http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters. May 2011. McKinsey and Company. Accessed October 2013.
  • 7. 7 proving the necessity for universal access to these power sources, be it electricity of the Internet. Electric power is the most parallel to information power. These two sources are economic fuels on a micro and macro scale. An overview of the evolution of electricity access expansion will demonstrate its economic effects on consumers. An overview of standardization processes and large public investment in electricity infrastructure will be used to reveal these policies’ positive impact on economic growth and stability. Data sourced from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank Group measure electricity access and electricity usage, as well as its effects on factors such as healthcare and education. An overview of the evolution of Internet access expansion will demonstrate its effect on consumers and businesses, as well as postulate how it will continue to do so in the future. A report produced in 2011 by the McKinsey Global Institute sets a metrics standard for measuring the economic impact of the Internet. The metrics and results will be adopted in this paper. Additionally, empirical research from the OECD, the World Bank, and other sources will evaluate why the increasing consumer demand for Internet access is crucial to economic stability. Electrification and Internet access expansion are both highly technical. The author recognizes that the technicalities of processes such as the evolution of electrical generation centralization (p.25) Internet network hierarchy (p.29) are not exhaustive. The goal is to provide enough insight for an unfamiliar reader to grasp both system’s similarities and differences. Some critical definitions are set below, and throughout the rest of the paper.
  • 8. 8 Because the methods of Internet access are not as standardized as electricity, Internet access will be defined as access to the World Wide Web. There are several modes of access. Cellular bandwidth and broadband via wired or wireless systems are the most popular access methods to the World Wide Web. Data from the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) (Figure 2) are exclusive to the United States. However, the socioeconomic spectrum, rural versus urban spectrum, and racial demographic spectrum applicable to this data set makes it applicable for a high level overview of general trends in the developed world. Figure 2 How all of these networks are monitored, secured, and maintained is the most disjointed part of the process. There are several gateway protocols, a system of rules for exchanging routing information across autonomous systems that are primarily upheld in faith. As the number of autonomous systems grows, protocols become increasingly fragile. For the purpose of this paper, protocols will refer to the generalized systems of rules regulating the Internet. Governments and some international bodies have varied amounts of regulatory control over their respective domains. For example, Germany has respective control over hosts within the .de domain, or China has respective control over
  • 9. 9 hosts within the .cn domain. Additionally, the Internet Society (p. 31) is considered the most influential Internet regulator as determined by the United Nations. Access to all of the Internet’s various networks is dependent on the strength of the connection between the networks (p. 32). Optical carriers are the most efficient lines to transfer data. However, these are expensive and require dramatic infrastructure projects. For example, Google is developing an arm of its company to be an Internet Service Provider (ISP) called Google Fiber. The objective is to provide private households access to optical carriers rather than typical modems or phone lines. Modems, phone lines, digital subscriptions, and cellular bandwidth are the most popular consumer methods to access the Internet. The utility of these methods can vary greatly. Wired digital subscription is considered a very reliant tool to access data, however, cellular bandwidth is limited in its function. The variability between these access methods can be measured in data rates, service cost, reliability, and device applicability. For the purpose of this paper, variability in the above four areas will drive the analysis on Internet access. The variability from open access to restricted access is also commonly referred to as the digital divide, or digital gap. The digital divide is difficult to measure because of the above four variables. Is Internet access on a smartphone with a limited data plan comparable to Internet access on a desktop computer connected to corporate Local Access Network (LAN)? The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development published a seminal report on understanding the digital divide. OECD defines digital divide as the, “gap between individuals, households, businesses and geographic areas at different socio-economic levels with regard both to their opportunities to access information and communication technologies (ICTs) and to their use of the Internet for a
  • 10. wide variety of activities.”14 This paper will adopt said definition. The economic impact of the digital divide is not thoroughly studied; however, the impact of Internet policies and general impact of the Internet on economies are better documented. The digital divide’s economic impact is critical to this paper’s thesis that Internet access must be handled similarly to global electrification goals to stimulate economic growth and stability. For the purpose of this paper, the economic effect of the digital divide will be analyzed primarily through the number of access lines per 100 inhabitants (Appendix 1) and Internet hosts per 1000 inhabitants (Appendix 2), in addition to these comparisons to GDP growth and economic sector makeup (Figure 5). 10 This paper is driven by the high level comparison between electrification and Internet access expansion. The evolution of these two economic fuels will provide context to about a dozen small case studies that intend to illustrate how the necessity for electricity access and the necessity for Internet access cannot be overlooked if societies wish to remain stable and peaceful. Literature Review The parallel evolution of electricity and the Internet is not widely document. There are a few introductory statements in economic impact reports on the Internet that draw this parallel, though not much further detail. Most commonly, Internet access expansion is parallel with the freedom of expression and the elimination of censorship. While this parallel is relevant in a wider context of paths to peace, this paper concentrates on the economic impact. Communication is critical to globalization and economic 14 http://www.oecd.org/sti/1888451.pdf
  • 11. stability, as previously discussed; however the transformative effects of electrification on labor and consumerism provide a strong precedent for future Internet policy. 11 In 1919, John Maynard Keynes attended the Versailles Conference as a delegate of the British Treasury. The conference convened to negotiate the post WWI treaty. Keynes pushed an economic agenda, though the conference focused primarily on security and borders. He strongly argued against reparations. Many other delegates were of the view that holding Germany economically hostage would incentivize peace. Keynes retorted that overall debt forgiveness would not only help Germany prosper into a peaceful state, but would also benefit Britain. In his best-selling text, Economic Consequences of Peace, he reflects on the importance of economic stability on internal and regional peace. He ended the book with an ominous warning, “But who can say how much is endurable, or in what direction men will seek at last to escape from their misfortunes?" The economic policies at the time led to extreme inflation and price control, which disenfranchised German consumers and the nation’s economy; those policies are largely considered the cause of Hitler’s rise. Keynes clearly demonstrated how economic stability is fundamental to all other components of peace. Keynes’ book enforced the notion that creating mutually reinforcing political, economic, security, and social systems was a best practice for establishing peace that would unlikely revert back to violence. By the mid 20th century, electricity was an integral mutually reinforcing system throughout the world. In Thomas Edison’s writings he documented the paradigm shifts in manufacturing, and the byproducts’ positive effect on society. Many futurists also penned stories of utopian worlds. Additionally, the historical recount of Henry Ford, the assembly line, and other advances attributed to
  • 12. electricity are well told by energy historian David Nye in his seminal book, Consuming Power. He outlines six major energy transitions from muscle power to computing power. He suggests that the “idea of early-American family self sufficiency is a ‘cherished misconception’” and emphasizes how critical the Industrial Revolution and electricity was to truly marking the “end of the era of muscle.” Nye successfully equates high energy use and American expectations of abundant energy to a classically "liberal, laissez-faire ideology" of self-reliant individualism, a "technological Lockeanism" that empowers Americans with "new fuels and new energy sources."15 To further this point, in 1994, the US Air Force limitedly distributed a report that 12 clearly outlined strategic attacks against national electric systems in Germany, Japan, Vietnam, Desert storm and other conflict zones.16 Though there were several noted failures on these planned attacks, the strategy aimed to slow economic growth. In Vietnam, factories without power were forced to craft replacement tools by hand. In Germany, electric grid attacks were not prioritized, against the wish of Secretary Morgenthau, because highly interconnected systems are able to redirect power if the transmission line network is reasonably in tact. This report exemplifies the economic impact of electrification on peace, conflict, and society. In more recent years, stabilization of peace through conflict has been waged through data attacks. From the Olympic Games17 to Waking Shark II18 there is a new, vulnerable network of economic fuel. The transition in drills protecting electric grids to 15 Nye, D. E. (1998). Consuming power a social history of American energies. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. 16 www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA425504 17 In 2010, the US began launching targeted cyber attacks on Iranian centrifuges, a military strategy dubbed the Olympic Games - Schmidt, E., & Cohen, J. (2013). The New Digital Age: Reshaping the future of people, nations and business. New York City: Knopf Publishing Group. 18 A series of planned cyber attack drills against British banking systems. (Reuters)
  • 13. Internet networks demonstrates a paradigm shift in societies primary economic fuel. The Big Switch is well documented by Nicholas Carr, in his 2008 book.19 Carr argues that technology can shape a society. Society is shaped by economics, by the efficiency of consuming and producing goods because ultimately it is the competitive marketplace that guarantees the most efficiency systems of consumption and production will prevail. Electricity prevailed to the point where its consumption is no longer a choice. Soon this choice will no longer exist for the Internet either. To be anti-technology is an arguably worthless cause and will be futile in the end. Electricity extended man’s physical powers, and Internet extends our intellectual powers. Facets of our society from public education, mass culture, class structure to a shift to service economy we assume as fundamental are increasingly reliant on Internet enabled technology.20 13 There is one particularly intriguing excerpt where Carr quotes Lewis Mumford’s 1970, The Pentagon of Power: “ Western society,” he wrote, “has accepted as unquestionable a technological imperative that is quite as arbitrary as the most primitive taboo: not merely the duty to foster invention and constantly to create technological novelties, but equally the duty to surrender to these novelties unconditionally, just because they are offered, without respect to their human consequences.” In response, Carr wrote: “His error lay in suggesting that we might do otherwise. The technological imperative that has shaped the Western is not arbitrary, nor is our surrender it its discretionary. The fostering of invention and the embrace of the new technologies that results are not “Duties” that we have somehow chosen to accept. They’re the 19 Carr, N. G. (2008). The big switch: rewiring the world, from Edison to Google. New York: W.W. Norton & Co. 20 Ibid, p. 20-26
  • 14. consequences of economics forces that lie largely beyond our control. By looing at technology in isolation, Mumford failed to see that the path of technological progress and its human consequences are determined not simply by advances in science and engineering, but more decisively, by the influence of technology on the costs of producing and consuming foods and services.” If the Internet will not be a choice as theorized by Carr, then it is arguably even more essential for economic stability that it be accessible. Economic inequality exasperates societal inequality; a sense of disenfranchisement threatens peace. Society is defined by a series of economic trade offs, therefore economic stability 14 is essential to a stable society. He concludes with how societal stability and economics stability are correlated through evidence that political stability leads to growth, and growth sustains political stability. Electricity was invented in American and led to its superpower status in the 20th century. Internet was also invented in American will continue to be essential to growth and American stability in the 21st century. The second half of Carr’s book, and many of his subsequent writings, focus on how cheap, utility supplied computing will ultimately change society as profoundly as cheap electricity did. The new economics of doing business online has become a boon to consumers. The World Wide Web’s most frequented websites were once expensive, and are now all virtually free. Richard Barbrook, of the University of Westminster in London, expressed this view well in his 1998 essay, “The Hi Tech Gift Economy. He wrote of Internet users: “Unrestricted by physical distance, they collaborate with each other without the direct mediation of money or politics. Unconcerned about copyright, they give and receive information without through of payment. In the absence of states or
  • 15. 15 markets to mediate social bonds, network communities are instead formed through the mutual obligations created by gifts of time and ideas.”21 Even with all those freedoms, economists continue to argue the causes of growing inequality in developed economies. Distinguished Columbia economist Jagdish Bhagwati argues that computerization is the main cause behind the two-decades-long stagnation of middle-class wages. He argues that although there are more jobs, they require lower skill sets and place “relentless” pressure on wages. A widely cited and influential report on this economic impact was produced by the McKinsey Global Institute in 2011 entitled, Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity which embodies a more optimistic outlook on the impact of the Internet. It concludes that, “Understanding just how much the Internet contributes to national economies should spur government and business leaders to seek ways to optimize their participation in the global Internet ecosystem. Encouraging usage is an unavoidable first step in leveraging public spending but leaders but also focus on providing human capital, financial capital, infrastructure, and the appropriate business environment.” This conjecture is based on many empirical studies complied by McKinsey that show clear results of positive economic impact (Figure 5). Vinton Cerf, one of the founders of the modern Internet and pioneer of the Internet Freedom Declaration, is a strong believer in the Internet of Things and prefers a more market-based approach than the McKinsey report. He is a prolific futurist who writes about a world where any flat surface will become a reasonable surface for Bluetooth enabled projectors tucked away in buttonholes. He is also aware of the Internet’s finite capacity for quality, “Are we solving problems, learning how to 21 Ibid., 141
  • 16. multitask? Is that a good thing? I don’t know. It’s a little bit like television. When it arrived there were many expectations that it would improve education and everything else. But what we discovered is there’s a finite amount of quality in the universe, and when there are more channels it has to be cut up into smaller and smaller amounts until finally, every channel delivers close to zero quality, and that’s where we are today, with a few exceptions,” he recently revealed in an interview The Smithsonian.22 Cerf adamantly believes that regulation will stifle the potential of the Internet. He argues that it was founded with a fundamental design of autonomous networks with universal freedom. While his dissent is largely focused on the 42 nations (out of 72 studied in the Open Net Initiative) that filter and censor content that “threaten online free expression,” he is also vocally dissents the International Telecommunications Union’s increasing involvement in Internet regulation. The United Nations ITU’s treaty was based on telecommunications. He does not believe this lays a workable context for Internet policy. Rather, he prefers to endorse the multi-stake holder approach of the Internet Engineering Task Force organized by the Internet Society non profit (p. 31) Cerf writes, “While some governments argue that the internet needs new global rules to speed its rollout in the developing world, we believe the present market-driven approach is best positioned to keep up with the net's exponential growth. Broadband services are being rolled out. Service interruptions remain rare. Within a few years the net is predicted to be serving four billion users -- more than half of humanity!”23 16 Overall, the breadth of literature on the economic impact of electricity far outweighs that of literature on the economic impact of the Internet. The parallels between 22 http://www.smithsonianmag.com/specialsections/40th-anniversary/Vinton-Cerf-on-Where-the-Internet- Will-Take-Us.html 23 http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/29/business/opinion-cerf-google-internet-freedom/
  • 17. the two sets of analysis provide a platform for interesting insight, qualified policy recommendations, and a strong context within which to research this paper’s theory and objective. 17 Evolution of Economic Power In economic times defined by resource scarcity, it is critical that the Internet not be one of these scarce resources as it provides a gateway to collect, process, and disseminate crucial information for economic sustainability for types of end users. Access to electricity’s byproducts, such as heat, is considered a human right in many parts of the world. Access to Internet’s byproducts will also be considered a human right, for example access to social media networks will be comparable to the universal freedom of expression. These byproducts are critical components to peace. Power is essential to economic productivity. If there is low electricity capacity, it is not expected that lights dim. So why if there is lower broadband capacity it is accepted to data processing time increases dramatically? How economic forces and policies have adjusted to the power of these power utilities is an increasingly important aspect to understanding why bridging the digital divide, like bridging the electro divide, will be continue to be good economics. Muscle Power Finite resources incite conflict. When a necessary resource is framed as scarce, nations will ensure resource security to maintain or increase productivity status quo.
  • 18. 18 Security will be defined as predictable macro-level output flow. Resource can be interpreted as, including but limited to: natural resource, trade route, or labor. A key characteristic of all resources is vital contribution to national economies; without a particular resource, a market failure occurs. Muscle was man’s first source of economic power. From brute strength to subtle ingenuity, man transformed society by adding value to economic markets. The power of man eventually became so sought after that the power of one man was not enough for one man alone. The desire to be able to own more than one could produce led to slave trade. A quest for resource security can cause instability when it requires breaching sovereignty of another party’s rights to resource access. In the short run, resource acquisition, regardless of the means, can promote internal stability; however, in the long run, exploitative means of acquisition can incite internal and external conflicts. There are several examples in history where resources are exploited, denied, stolen, or purchased at a high cost in order to maintain security, or economic stability. Labor is a valuable resource for a productive society. Often times the value of labor is not reflected in its direct cost to producers. Workers’ value-add and pay are traditionally, and intentionally, incongruent. A profit maximizing company will withhold a percentage of every worker’s economic output in order to avoid full compensation. 24 This holds particularly true in industries with few potential employers. Oligopolistic markets are able to consistently underpay workers’ of their full value because labor markets becomes specialized, so their skills are not directly transferable to other markets where they may have potential for higher earnings. 24 Nicholson, W. & Snyder, C. (2012). Microeconomic theory: basic principles and extensions (11th ed.). Mason, Ohio: South-Western/Cengage Learning.
  • 19. An extreme form of resource exploitation is slavery. Labor output is maximized in a slave economy because the economic output generated by slave labor far outweighs its costs. In the Figure 3 1700s, the US only imported 6% of all slaves traded in the Americas, yet by 1825 the US had nearly a quarter of all blacks in the region. Slaves on cotton plantations worked on average 3,000 hours per week – about 2.25 times the labor output of a modern factory worker.25 The US South had tremendous global economic power in the mid 19th century. In the short term, slavery was able to support a burgeoning economy. A recent study published by the Paris School of Economics reveals the economic 19 power of the US slave system: slave wealth outweighed transportation and industrial wealth, combined, from 1700 to 1860.26 As the US North moved towards an industrialized economy, it was no longer favorable to have such a large portion of US economic wealth be dependent on slavery, a workforce specialized in agriculture. However, US South’s population remained about 43% enslaved blacks.27 The exploitation of this labor resource inevitably led to the internal conflict between the US North and the US South in the longer term. The American Revolution, 25 http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/slavery-and-anti-slavery/resources/facts-about-slave-trade-and- slavery 26 http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.com/zucman-gabriel/capitalisback/PikettyZucman2013WP.pdf 27 http://www.bowdoin.edu/~prael/lesson/tables.htm
  • 20. the US’s Civil War, was fueled by an ideological debate on economic resources - with slavery the US South was determined to maintain its economics power; without slavery the US North was determined to capitalize on industrialism’s growing portion of overall economic wealth. Slavery was an economic resource that was necessary for one side’s economic survival and detrimental to the others. The US Civil War results in 640,000 causalities. In 1860 the national debt was $65 million, in 1865 the national debt stood at $7.2 billion; the annual budget soared from $63 million to $300 million. Conflict is expensive. To put it in perspective, when George Washington took the president the national debt was $77 million.28 After two wars, expanding across the continent, the national debt had decreased; the US was prospering. The cost of prevention, the cost of maintaining cheap and accessible economic fuels, yields a net positive cost-benefit analysis. 20 This proves the volatility of the quest for resource security. This is no endorsement for slavery and does not diminish the violence of slavery. The US South’s economic stability can be attributed to their uninhibited access to their self-proclaimed economic manifest of agricultural superpower fueled by free labor. When the US South’s primary economic resource, free labor, went from an abundant good to a scare good, the shift in the market supply of this critical resource incited economic, political, and social instability, which resulted in many lives lost. Today, slavery still exists although the necessary economic fuel can be attained with far fewer and grave negative externalities. The cheaper and more accessible subsequent economic fuels, such as electricity or nuclear energy, become the less reason there will be for conflict ridden power sources around the world. 28 http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/the-economic-costs-of-the-civil-war#axzz2mpB8iX00
  • 21. 21 Electrical Power In 1893, Chicago hosted the Columbian Exposition. The fairgrounds were constructed on a 633-acre site on Lake Michigan to form a city within a city. The exposition celebrated advances in industry, transportation, and the arts, but most of all it celebrated the arrival of electricity as the nation’s new animating force. The organizers of the event wrote that it was their intention “to make the World’s Fair site one grand exemplification of the progress that has been made in electricity.” During the fair, the exposition consumed three times as much electricity as the rest of the City of Chicago.29 Henry Adams described the light show in his autobiography, The Education of Henry Adams, with humility and awe. He believed that the machines “would result in infinite costless energy within a generation,” and a “new phase in society.” He realized that this new phase entailed many unknowns: “Chicago asked in 1893 for the fist time the question whether the American people knew where they were driving.” The electrical grid brought profound change and quickly reshaped business and society. “In short, the central supply of cheap electricity altered the economics of everyday life. What had been scarce, the energy needed to power industrial machines, run household appliances, light lights, became abundant,” writes Nicholas Carr. Electricity was the force behind the Industrial Revolution. Light and power allowed factory workers to scale their operations and boost outputs. Large corporations emerged as small businesses were able to continuously communicate across distant mergers and acquisitions. Electricity brought forth new communication and computation tools, such as the telephone network and the 29 Carr, p. 86
  • 22. 22 punch card tabulator. This created complex internal bureaucracies that were able to handle a wider breadth and further depth of tasks. Productivity did not just increase because managers were able to quantify output faster and accurately with electric machines. Electric byproducts such as fans for clean airflow, stronger illumination to ease work conditions, and less gear and pulley systems to reduce accidents increased the general health and productivity of factory workers. The introduction of light bulbs and electric motors did have its downsides. For example, workers were no longer expected to hone specific crafts or skills. The ability to operate a machine displaced artisan talent. Humans became machine-like; Frederick W. Taylor, an influential engineer of the time, went so far to time specific movements of workers to maximize mass production. Before electrification, an innovation like an assembly line seemed unattainable. With the debut of Henry Ford’s automated line in 1913 at his car plant, it was clear that it was built on the “assumption that electrical power should be available everywhere,” notes historian David Nye in his book Consuming Power30. Ford himself commented how, “without high-speed tools and the finer steels which they brought about, there could be nothing of what we call modern industry.”31 Henry Ford’s influence on what we call modern industry and modern society did not stop at the end of the factory line. In order to incentivize workers to remain in their tedious jobs he doubled wages across the board. The business world was upset, but they knew they had to respond when 15,000 men lined up for 3,000 vacant positions outside of Ford’s plant. This industry wide wage increase 30 Nye, p.141 31 Ford, Henry; Crowther, Samuel (1930). Edison as I Know Him. New York: Cosmopolitan Book Company. p. 15 (on line edition).
  • 23. played an important role in the development of the middle class, which turned out to be a vast and relatively prosperous sector of society. 23 As electrification continued to spur specification, upper level management jobs were created and the “knowledge worker” and their white collars were born.32 That led to what Harvard economist Claudia Goldin has termed, “the greatest transformation of American education.”33 Within a generation, attending secondary school became commonplace. This enabled a virtuous cycle for electricity utilities. The new middle and upper class used their wages to purchase household electric appliance such as toasters and refrigerators. The increased demand pushed down production costs. This economic cycle created a huge market for an array of electrically powered products. Now utilities were providing energy sources to factories that also created products that required electricity access. This led to even greater economies of scale for utilities that allowed them to cut electric rates further and spur even more demand for their current and the appliances that ran on it. The economic effects, and extended social effects, of electricity brought visions of utopian society. People were told that electrification would cleanse the Earth of, “disease and strife, turning it into a pristine new Eden.”34 Futurists in the early 20th century wrote about “electrified water” that would be “the most powerful of disinfectants,” and that, “by the all potent power of electricity, man is now able to convert an entire continent into a tropical garden at his pleasure.” (Those futurists were not far off. Ionized water is frequently used to sterilize hospitals and Dubai has a fully climatized 32 Carr, p. 89 33 Claudia Goldin, “Egalitarianism and the Returns to Education During the Great Transformation of American Education,” Journal of Political Economy 107 (December 1999), S65-S94 34 Electrifying America: social meanings of a new technology, 1880-1940. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. p. 149-50
  • 24. ski slope in the middle of the desert.) When society has the ability to choose health and to choose paradise because a larger proportion of the population is empowered through electricity access, higher wages, consistent education, and safer shelter each day becomes more predictable. Predictability is an important component of economic stability, and peace; there is no immediate reason to be up in arms when tomorrow is expected to be at least as successful as yesterday. 24 The impacts of electrification would not have been possible without the standardization of the electric system. Critical to electric utilities’ success were universal standards that allowed the electric grid to truly act as one machine. If factory components, wires, or other production elements greatly varied, economies of scale would have been reduced. To avoid such scenarios, utilities and manufacturers established national and international associations to negotiate standards, share patents, learn best practices, and engage with government agencies. From the International Electrotechnical Commission to the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, the network of standardizing organizations is expansive, yet effective. Beyond outlet adapters, there is virtually no additional effort necessary to access electricity sources anywhere in the world. Products designed in the United States, produced in China, and sold in Australia can also be shipped to Germany or Ghana with equally complex supply chains. The global economy exists because of the economic impacts of electrification on the enhanced production process, global communications and the standardizations around it. Another importance factor in creating the “one machine,” was evolving away from Edison’s original local electricity generator network, to large generation plants that
  • 25. could transport current much further distances. “While Edison was vainly trying to hold back progress, Insull was moving to capitalize on it. He was the first to realize, that with new technologies, electricity supply could be consolidated in immense central stations that would be able to meet the demands of even the largest industrial customers.”35 With the advent of alternating currents, central power stations were critical to releasing higher voltage with lower loss along transmission lines. Figure 4 25 Today, electricity is a critical resource for all modern economies. For most developed nations, electricity is framed as being in abundance. There are no caps on electricity access that force consumers to think twice about connecting several devices to the electrical grid.36 Regulating electricity consumption is widely considered a step back from the progress resulting from electrification. In 2009, California passed a bill that will require all television sets to be twice as efficient by 2013. Governor Schwarzenegger hailed the legislation as a step towards combating climate change and reducing consumer 35 Carr, p. 39 36 Electronic rationing is considered a last resort policy in times of energy crisis. For example, in 2001, Brazil was forced to implement energy rationing to avoid exasperating drought, which was considered more disruptive than a temporary rationing.
  • 26. costs, not as an attempt to conserve resources.37 Aside from decades of Malthusian doom-mongering on the state of energy resources, all credible reports indicate an abundance of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, and alternative energy investments that can supply an estimated 40 to 100 years of current consumption levels.38 Electricity is in abundance. Markets and consumers are confident that electricity will always be available and supply all demands, in a standardized manner. This future confidence is important for economic stability, and ultimately peace. 26 Electricity supply is dictated by consumer demand. It is expensive to store because of technology shortages, yet expected to always be available. The peak capacity hours of electricity use are expected to be as efficiently satiated as low capacity hours. According to BP Statistical Review data, energy capacity and energy generation (or capacity considering instantaneous consumption due to storage shortages) correlate at a 96% rate globally.39 Demand for electricity is exponentially increasing. It is projected that world energy consumption will grow by 56% from 2010 to 2040.40 Because energy is in abundance, the 96% correlation rate will not suffer – it is only expected to grow with technology improvements. Not all regions have energy abundance. There are 1.3 billion people without access to electricity and 2.3 billion people that rely on traditional biomass for cooking.41 The implications on education42 and healthcare are tangible. Burning biomass for cooking 37 http://hometheater.about.com/b/2009/11/18/california-energy-commissions-approves-tv-efficiency-regulations. htm 38 http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2013/03/07/we-live-in-an-age-of-energy-abundance/ 39 http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_ele_gen_ter_hou_sha_of_tot-generation-terawatt-hours-share-total 40 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm 41 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/#d.en.8630 42 “Energy access has real implications for educational attainment across the continent. Only half of primary school students in Abu Hasheem, a small south-eastern state in Sudan, received passing grades on
  • 27. typically results in an open flame in a small, unventilated space, often in rural and urban slums. This practice kills 1.6 million people a year, requires on average 10 miles of walking and 35% of incomes spent on collecting wood, and produces the equivalent of 40 cigarettes a day.43 In 2013, The Paradigm Project, a US State Department funded energy efficient stove distributor, has increased local incomes by more than $2 million by supplying 195,000 stoves. The cost per life impact is low and its impact high. The 82 million hours saved by the Paradigm Project are now redistributed to education, and other positive economic activity.44 Though economic impact of providing sustainable energy sources to communities around the globe is constantly increasing the launch of programs such as the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All and the Obama Administration’s Power Africa initiatives demonstrate the willingness to achieve universal electrification. 27 A major component of this political willingness to invest in electricity infrastructure is its low prices. Government action has been able to successfully manipulate economic forces to drive down the price of this essential utility. For example, initially in the early 1900s, electric rates in the northeast were significantly lower than the rates reported in southern cities. These differences are, “due to differences in customer densities, learning by doing, and operating costs of generation plants45.” The northeast began electrifying earlier so that costs of operation had fallen and many of the networks, such as the Edison system in New York, relied on coal fired steam generation. “Many of the utilities in the South did not adopt coal-fired steam until after the passage of the their exams in 2007. That number increased to 100 percent after the Sudan Multi Donor Fund-National sponsored a project to provide solar power to the community. Success rates like this can be achieved across sub-Saharan Africa if more schools were provided with solar lights or other means of access to electricity.” http://www.one.org/us/2013/07/03/a-classrooms-worst-nightmare-energy-poverty/ 43 http://theparadigmproject.net/more-about-the-problem 44 Ibid. 45http://www.stanford.edu/group/SITE/archive/SITE_2012/2012_segment_3/2012_Segment_3_papers/kitc hens.pdf
  • 28. 28 Federal Water Power Act in 1920.” The act regulated interstate waterways, which incentivized private utilities to make the shift to coal. “These coal fired plants led to competitive electric rates that were among the lowest in the nation.”46 The evolution of electricity access has fundamentally changed over the past century through consumer demand, economic policy, and corporate decisions. The coordination of these decisions through standardization, ensuring abundance, and encouraging technological advancement has provided millions of people around the world access to power. Electricity access provides opportunity to join a global network of communication and productivity. Today, electricity is no longer this only predominant economic fuel – the role of the Internet is increasingly exponentially. Information Power According to the researchers at the 2011 G8 conference, the electricity revolution required 50 years to mature; and the Internet revolution has taken only 15 years to reach the same level of impact.47 In 1989, no company had a public facing web-presence. Figure 5 In less than two decades, nearly two-thirds of all businesses worldwide have Internet presence. If the Internet were a sector, it would produce more economic activity 46Ibid. 47 McKinsey Global Institute "Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity." http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters. May 2011. McKinsey and Company. Accessed October 2013.
  • 29. 29 than agriculture or utilities. Globally, Internet activity contributes to 2.9% of global per capita GDP, a total $1.7 billion. The majority of that activity comes from private consumption, followed by public expenditures.48 49 The Internet has contributed net positive contribution to the economy because for every one job lost to new efficiencies, 2.3 jobs are created.50 As electricity was the crux of modern industry, Internet is an emerging crux of the modern economy. To better compare the evolution of electricity access to Internet access, it is important to expound on the notion that the Internet is not owned by a single entity, rather it is a network of computers. The very name Internet comes from the notion of interconnected networks. Every computer that connects to an Internet Service Provider (ISP) is part of the network. A computer at a residence would typically connect over a conventional phone, cable modem, or digital subscription. A computer at a business would typically connect to an ISP over a local area network (LAN). Large ISPs will connect these networks over a Point of Presence (POP) for respective regions. So that Computer A in POP 1 can connect with Computer B in POP 2, there is a high level network of network access points (NAPs) rather than an overall controlling network. Trillions of bytes of data flow between NAPs. A byte is a unit of data typically eight binary digits long that represents a word, number, symbol, or piece of an image. For example, computer storage is measured in byte multiples such as 820 mega bytes. To avoid data redundancies and clogging the connections of “innocent bystanders”, routers determine where to send data from one computer to another. The lines over which routers and networks operate are called backbones, or fiber optic trunk lines. Fiber optics lines, 48 Ibid. 49 Ibid. 50 Ibid.
  • 30. or optical carriers (OC), can carry much more data at faster speeds than, for example, modems. NAPs can organize information in seconds between different networks because every device on the Internet has an Internet Protocol (IP) address. There are 4.3 billion possible IP addresses. However, to recognize IP address 216.27.22.162 versus 214.28.32.174 is not conducive to the average user so the Domain Name System (DNS) was established. DNS automatically maps text names to IP addresses within domains such as .com or .org. Within each domain, there are Figure 6 millions of uniform resource locators (URLs) that include a host name such as www. and the domain name. The possible range of host and domain names is limitless as long as the system is flexible to accommodate alternative IP address versions.51 30 In 1982, NSFNET was decommissioned. This marked the beginning of Internet commercialization. Previous to NSFNET, a network maintained by the National Science Foundation for education and research purposes, the other primary supernetwork was ARPANET, maintained by the Department of Defense. The DoD mandated the standardization of protocols, particularly the standardization of the previously mentioned IPs or TCPs (transmission control protocol). However, the dozens of web vendors at the time were not aware of the real technology or value ad of TCP/IP. They regarded the 51 http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/how-it-works/technical-aspects
  • 31. DoD mandate as a nuisance.52 After several rounds of working groups convened by the US government and other internet advocacy groups, the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) emerged as the body that would maintain these standards and protocols after the decommissioning of government run networks. IETF ran Interop tradeshows around the world that demonstrated the utility of interoperability between network providers, regardless of their competitive status. 31 IETF was founded in 1986 by the nonprofit, Internet Society, in California, and consisted of 21 US government funded researchers. The mission of IETF is, “to make the Internet work better by producing high-quality, relevant technical documents that influence the way people design, use, and manage the Internet.”53 It is one of many national and international associations guiding the standardization of the Internet. Similar to the dozens of organizations referenced in electricity standardization, the method of how data is written and transported is well documented. Where the standardization of electricity and the Internet has not yet met, is in the standardization of methods of access and access reliability. While IP addresses, URL codes, and binary numbers are generally considered standardized there can be a significant gap when technologies are transferred from network to network. A new economy has emerged from the 2.5 billion connected devices with unique IP addresses to the Internet (2009). In 2020, there will be up to 30 billion devices connected with unique IP addresses, most of which will be physical products, such as smartwatches or Wi-Fi enabled cameras. It is predicted that the economic value add for the Internet of Things will be $1.9 trillion dollars in 2020 with potential benefit 52 http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/what-internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet# Commercialization 53 http://www.ietf.org/about/mission.html
  • 32. for a wide range of industries, such as: healthcare, retail, and transportation.54 “Computing power will be cheap and covert. We won’t know it is there; it will be in our jewelry and in our clothing,” says Mr. Sondergaard of Gartner. “We will throw more computers into our laundry in a week than we’ve used in our lifetimes so far.”55 32 However, the products of the Internet of Things are connected by different radio technologies. Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular broadband (i.e. 2G), and ZigBee56 use different data rates57 that prohibit users from universal access to the information their device can provide. For example, a GSM enabled wristwatch will not be able to automatically connect to a neighboring Wi-Fi connection. If the smartwatch is able to roam across networks, that arrangement required a business agreement with all involved network carriers and common protocols. There have been many efforts by national and international Internet standardization organizations to make roaming simpler. Untethering devices from specific networks is critical to being able to gain economies of scale; if the same household energy smart meter can be deployed to Sacramento, CA and Sochi, Russia the price of manufacturing will decrease and make high tech products more accessible to all ranges of the global socio-economic spectrum. The current issue is that efforts to standardize network arrangements are ad hoc. In 2012, seven major carriers decided to procure a common network management 54 http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2602817 55 Ibid. 56 “ZigBee is new specification for a suite of high-level communication protocols used to create personal area networks built from small, low-power digital radios. Applications include wireless light switches, electrical meters with in-home-displays, traffic management systems, and other consumer and industrial equipment that requires short-range wireless transfer of data at relatively low rates.” (Wikipedia) 57 The speed at which a bit of data is transferred from machine to machine. In order to be considered broadband, the ITU Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) has established a minimum 256 kbits/s. Data rates are considered asymmetric (supporting higher download that upload rates) and non reliable because of frequency traffic bottlenecks. (Wikipedia)
  • 33. platform.58 They did not agree to change their fundamental technology; rather they hired a third-party vendor to bridge their differences. These differences are crucial for the Internet of Things to have the same economic impact as electrification did. As the Internet is creating more high skills jobs, the demand for Internet connected things will increase, similar to how the purchases of refrigerators once sky-rocketed. Amazon’s Kindle e-reader is the most popular dedicated e-reader in the world.59 However, Amazon has a “home” network with AT&T, a large US-based ISP. If a Kindle reader wants to download a new magazine issue without a free Wi-Fi connection, they will have to pay high fees to roam onto another ISPs broadband. Interoperability between networks is increasingly essential, as many estimate that by 2017 mobile phones, tablets and ultra-mobile 33 PCs to represent more than 80 percent of new device purchase.60 Low power prices were one of the most crucial aspects of electricity adoption, and the efforts to bridge gaps in energy poverty. For the price of information power to also decline, there is, arguably, a need for greater incentive for ISPs to standardize network technologies and network management. The degree of access between these modes is important to differentiate. Cellular bandwidth serves limited purpose compared to broadband. Data download, program testing, and large interactive graphic files have significantly diminished utility on a cellular bandwidth connection. The primary reason why cellular bandwidth is not a direct substitute for other connections is because it is localized and has a capacity cap. When there are many devices trying to connect to the same cellular bandwidth connection, the 58 http://www.vimpelcom.com/Media-center/Press-releases/2012/KPN-NTT-Docomo-Rogers-SingTel- Telefonica-Telstra-and-VimpelCom-to-cooperate-globally-in-M2M-business/ 59 http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml 60 http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2602817
  • 34. bandwidth caps out. With current technology, cellular bandwidth is not responsive to demand. The peak capacity, the maximum amount of bandwidth the respective customer base could demand at any given moment, is controlled by bandwidth providers at a profit-maximizing supply ceiling and is not controlled by pure market demand forces. This supply ceiling limits users’ productivity and overall utility. The assumption of abundance was critical to the expansion of electricity and many of its positive byproducts, such as Henry Ford’s assembly line. 34 Unlike electricity where currents are standardized across large regions, the strength of broadband signal is not predictable. The FCC reports that nearly 97% of the US has broadband access, however broadband adoption rates hover on average around 60%. Broadband versus dial up modem, for example, allow for higher upload and download data rates. (Figure 6) A report published by the Department of Commerce after the 2010 US Census also showed insight into how different socioeconomic groups have different access strength.61 If electric current strength changed across regions, the industry’s economic of scale would have been seriously diminished. Economies of scale are critical to low prices, and universal accessibility. Additionally, as previously discussed, predictability is at the core of economic stability; it is unsustainable to have unpredictable access to information that incessantly shapes micro and macro economic decision-making. It is not only people with low socioeconomic status who are forced to rely on low strength wireless devices for Internet connections. For those living in remote, rural areas, wired Internet access is not an option no matter how much they’re willing to pay. The FCC reports that 19 million Americans live in communities beyond the reach of cable 61 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30719.pdf
  • 35. companies or other broadband providers. This “access divide” between broadband, dial up, and mobile cellular bandwidth is particularly important as mobile Internet access is increasing globally, particularly in regions such coastal Africa and Asia with limited existing infrastructure. According to a Media Actions Grassroots Network press release, ‟A cell phone or mobile device is not a substitute for a laptop or desktop computer. Many everyday Internet needs such as applying for a job, conducting research, registering for classes, or accessing government or social services are difficult or impossible on a mobile device.”62 Universal Internet access is not enough to bridge the digital gap; the utility of Internet access must also be equitable to truly experience its economic virtues. 35 It is clear that the intricate, complex network of the Internet has a tremendous effect and potential effect on the global economy. How Internet access will be expanded is critical. As with the legislative action that shaped electricity access, such as the1920 Federal Water Power Act, government action on shaping information power is necessary, and inevitable. Government policies play a tremendous role in bringing Internet access to or limiting access for underserved groups, regions, and countries. For example in Pakistan, which is pursuing an aggressive IT policy aimed at boosting its drive for economic modernization, the number of Internet users grew from 133,900 (0.1% of the population) in 2000 to 31 million (17.6% of the population) in 2011.63 Eastern Europe is renowned for its high performing Internet access. Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria consistently rank in the top 20 Internet speed rankings. However, access to these high speeds lacks, and is nearly half than the European average. Romania’s capital, Bucharest, 62 http://www.scribd.com/doc/48893472/The-Mobile-Internet-Communities-of-Color-and-Low-Income- Families 63 https://opennet.net/research/profiles/pakistan
  • 36. often ranks as the top city in Internet speed, yet only 14% of Romanians have consistent access to the Internet64. The evolution of the Internet will continue to change and progress. As more users access information from mobile devices, more ISPs establish business agreements to standardize network management, and government champion access expansion projects, the way the Internet affects modern economies and modern societies will become more ubiquitous. Access to the Internet will be synonymous to access to markets, to trade, to education, to healthcare, and other essential services. As this fundamental shift in knowledge management happens through the world’s economies it is critical that policy makes and industry are wary of the digital divide. Economic stability correlates with economic equality. (Appendix 3) Like the introduction of electric stoves is saving thousands of people millions of dollars and hours, technologies that give all global citizens the power to perform at the same potential will chip away at the energy and information poverty that exists, and holds back progress, today. 36 Conclusion Technology advances economic power. Economies have progressed from muscle power to hydropower to steam power to electric power to oil power to nuclear power and 64 Eurostat 2013 via https://developers.google.com/chart/ Figure 7
  • 37. 37 now to information power. This evolution is not realized by all economic in the same manner. Every economy sets its own value upon every type of economic power source. There are thousands of variables that can affect that value systems from ecology to population density. However, one virtue for which all economies strive is to be able to access whichever economic power source can optimize outputs and increase per capita economic growth. Technologies are not omniscient because of market forces. The price of a new technology or the society’s ability to adapt in a cost-beneficial timeline can restrict opportunities to transition into other forms of economic power. Omniscience is a curious variable. In Sri Lanka, 76.6 percent of the population has electricity access65; yet, there are 81 active mobile phones per 100 people.66 Mobile phones are growing increasingly omniscient in all parts of the world although not ever user has access to a personal electricity source to charge a mobile phone.67 It is evident that the functions of the mobile phone are important enough for consumers to usurp the electricity access issue. Mobile phones are what connect citizens to one another, to government services, to bank services, and other vital parts of a functioning economy. Smartphone adoption has increased by 39.5% in the past year.68 Connectivity is key. How people chose to connect is also transforming. In one day, WhatsApp, a text-messaging app that transmits data over the Internet via cellular bandwidth, receives over 7 billion inbound messages. Whatsapp messages are not just sent in OECD countries, it is a top five most downloaded app in Malaysia, South Africa, and Indonesia.69 Whatsapp is just 65 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS 66 http://www.trc.gov.lk/information/statistics.html 67 Figure 1 68 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24461213 69 http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2013/01/02/whatsapp-hits-7-billion-inbound-messages-a-day- 75-growth-in-four-months/
  • 38. one example of many technologies that are displacing traditional communication methods. Consumers are demanding the virtues of information power all over the world. Global electrification has been a long process. Thomas Edison developed the first incandescent light bulb and electrical grid in the late 19th century. The standard electrical grid went from being able to support a handful to millions of consumers at a moment’s notice. The price of electricity has steadily decreased and regulation has increased. It must be noted that there are studies that show that market based approaches to electricity pricing could further decrease its price in the medium term.70 However, the paths to which each economy has chosen to electrify, largely through high levels of regulation, its societies have yielded return on their investment. This ROI calculation is a critical aspect of economic choices, such as Poland recently forced its largest utility to build a $3.7 billion power plant which is prospected to be unprofitable after electricity prices fell to a five-year low, all for the fear of power shortage.71 Poland is willing to absorb this sunk cost because meeting market demand is critical to government and economic stability. An ROI calculation that could influence Internet access expansion could have dramatic effects on Internet access rates. The consumers demand for Internet is growing exponentially. It is necessary that consumers can expect uninterrupted, cheap Internet service as consumers do with electricity if economies are going to continue to evolve. For every job lost to Internet’s efficiencies, 2.3 new jobs are created for the Internet’s growing byproducts and utilities.72 The power of information is critical to making informed decisions on the micro and 70 http://economics.mit.edu/files/1484 71 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-14/poland-defies-power-slump-in-3-7-billion-gamble-energy-markets. 38 html 72 McKinsey & Co.
  • 39. macro level. Households can avoid banking fees if they are connected to the Internet and can receive push notifications that warn them over overdraws. Nations can make smarter policy decisions with real time information considering, in the United States for example, 19% of Internet users post material online about political or social issues and a disproportionate amount of these online activist are youth.73 39 There are notable scaling efforts taking place around the world. From Pakistan’s Open Net Initiative, the President Obama’s ConnectEd policy platform which plans to, “connect 99 percent of America’s students to the internet through high-speed broadband and high-speed wireless within 5 years,” and phase out printed text books by 2016.74 This will be a particularly expensive endeavor if there is publicly owned ISP. When even the most sophisticated cellular data plans have data limits and when 40% of US households chose not purchase high speed Internet plans, action must still be taken to lower the price of information. Again, universal Internet access is not enough to bridge the digital gap; the utility of Internet access must also be equitable to truly experience its economic virtues. There is a discrepancy between the importance of speed and access in global internet access expansion policy, arguably because unlike electricity where currents strength is standardized, data rates and network management have not yet found inflection points like Sam Insull did with the push for central supply stations. The Internet needs a champion, like electricity had Insull. It is unacceptable, for example, to receive this type message while writing this paper at one of the top 50 American education institutions: 73 http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2009/15--The-Internet-and-Civic-Engagement.aspx 74 http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/06/06/what-connected
  • 40. 40 Figure 8 The business leaders, policy makers, and consumers that shape the Internet everyday must look to the parallels of electrification to find reason to bring down the price of accessing information, to be able to access it anytime and any place, and to be able to realize maximum potential utility from all the economic power it has to offer to all citizens of the world. Without access to this power source, the digital divide will stricken societies into economic and knowledge poverty, a potential cost that has already been unnecessarily realized by energy poverty. The tools to standardize, supply peak capacity, and offer high levels of utility exist – now it is up to the will economic influencers to truly bridge the digital divide, and maintain a steady path towards peace.
  • 41. 41 Appendix 1 Appendix 2