This document discusses the role of nuclear energy in a transition to a low carbon economy. It notes that energy security and climate change mitigation are converging issues that require flexible, available energy sources. Nuclear energy can play a role in transition over the next 15-20 years alongside renewables and natural gas. The document examines nuclear energy's agenda regarding costs, safety, and public opinion. It also discusses the growing roles of nuclear power in countries like India, China and Brazil's need for a thermal base as it restructures its electric grid away from hydropower.

1. ENERGY ECONOMICS GROUP-GEE
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO – UFRJ
Renato Queiroz
Março 2016
Av. Pasteur 250 sala 123 – Urca – Rio de janeiro – RJ
Tel: 021-3873-5270 /5269 – Fax: 021-2541-8148 - http://www.gee.ie.ufrj.br/
SEMANA BRASIL REINO UNIDO
DE BAIXO CARBONO
Rio de Janeiro

2. O PAPEL DA ENERGIA NUCLEAR EM UMA
ECONOMIA DE BAIXO CARBONO
ENERGY PAPER NUCLEAR IN A LOW CARBON
ECONOMY
Energy Economics Group – GEE

3. Outline of Presentation
3
Introduction
 Energy security and climate change: the hard
convergence
Transition Energy
 Context of nuclear generation
The agenda of nuclear generation in this transition
Brazil: The role of Nuclear Power Plants

4. ENERGY PAPER NUCLEAR IN A LOW CARBON ECONOMY
4
Introduction

5. Introduction
5
 2050: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change- The
warnings if the world continues to emit emission of greenhouse
gases.
 World Population ( WEO 2015) : 2013= 7.1 billion
2040= 9.0 billion
 World energy demand grows-2040
 Paradigm: an energetic mix of low carbon (energy policies,
business plans)
 How will the choices of energy planning respecting the
differentiation of the realities of developed and developing
countries ?what choices of each country?

6. 6
Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence .

7. Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence
7

8. Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence
8
Stocks
Flexibility
Availability
The amount , time and place desired by that
consumer .

9. Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence
9
Flexibility
Stocks
Availability
The amount , time and place desired by that
consumer .

10. Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence
10

11. 11
To Recognize
To Accept
Energy security and climate change:
the hard convergence

12. 12
Transition Energy

13. Transition Energy
13
Transition process between the current economy
based on the intensive use of fossil fuels and a
future sustainable economy is in renewable
energy

14. Transition Energy
14
 What role will be played by the United States from a comfortable
situation in terms of energy security, sustained in unconventional
oil and gas?
 What is the role of China in this transition from a growing energy
dependency situation that turns energy security in fundamental
issue of economic security and therefore national security?
 What is the role of Germany from a bold bet on the direct energy
transition from fossil to renewable.
 What is the role of countries like India where energy inclusion
stands as the major challenge to be overcome and the
renunciation of the use of fossil fuels means making it more
difficult this inclusion?

15. Transition Energy
15
 What is the role of nuclear generation in this context?

16. Transition Energy
16
Next 15 to 20 YEARS :
 Renewable sources with
emphasis on wind and solar
power
 LGN -Liquefied Natural Gas
 Nuclear energy
 Energy efficiency

17. Transition Energy
17
Participation of nuclear power plants in the
matrix of power in some countries.
Prepared from IAEA (2015).
Nuclear : 11 % of electricity
generation in the world

18. 18
The agenda of nuclear generation
in this transition

19. The agenda of nuclear generation
in this transition
19
 The legitimacy in society as a solution to security assurance of
energy supply. A matter of public opinion
 Cost Escalation - new nuclear power plants
- construction cost
- number of years to built the plants ( delays:
safety authorities might impose rules, regulatory requirements.)
-Heterogeneity, size of reactors, lack of
standardization( ?) or other safety features
- Although: the increase in the size of reactors
was done with the expectations of reducing the cost per MW
installed.

20. The agenda of nuclear generation
in this transition
20
The technology is also towards reducing energy
dependency abroad
Nuclear signals to be observed
• 2030: Increase of 17% of the world nuclear power capacity
• Japan
• India -25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050( BP 2015)
-Energy security is the main driver
-The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
- The energy consumption will grow 128 % -2035 (BP2015)
• China-half of the expansion of nuclear power in coming decades.
In the situation of the urgency of climate change
mitigation or ambitions CO2 emissions-hard or hard
decarbonization policy The role of Nuclear : increasing

21. The agenda of nuclear generation
in this transition
21
This routing will be partially defined from the
specific agenda of the nuclear industry

22. 22
Brazil:
The role of Nuclear Power Plants

23. 23
Restructuring of the Brazilian electric model
Depletion of an electric model based on intensive
exploitation of hydropower plants with large reservoirs
Wind energy is also occasionally used to reduce the
output of hydroelectric
The necessary changing role of thermal plants in the
Brazilian electric sector
Brazil: The role of Nuclear Power Plants
This requires a thermal base

24. 24
Brazil: The role of Nuclear Power Plants
Thermal base electric sector
Nuclear Coal LGN
strategic energy policy

25. Energy Economics Group – GEE
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS -IE
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO – UFRJ

26. Energy Economics Group – GEE
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS -IE
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO – UFRJ

27. Av. Pasteur 250 sala 123 – Urca – Rio de janeiro – RJ
Tel: 021-3938-5270 /5269 – Fax: 021-2541-8148 - http://www.gee.ie.ufrj.br/
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS -IE
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO – UFRJ
Renato Queiroz
renato.queiroz@ie.ufrj.br
Energy Economics Group – GEE