The document discusses the rise of open and online education, predicting a significant increase in global higher education enrollment from 100 million in 2000 to 400 million by 2030. It examines the impact of massive open online courses (MOOCs) on traditional education models and outlines various scenarios for the future of higher education institutions. Key insights include the need for universities to adapt to student expectations for flexible learning and potential disruptive innovations in the delivery and financing of education.

1. Open & Online
Education & de
toekomst van het
Nederlandse
hoger onderwijs
Impact analyse
& scenariostudie
Timo Kos

2. @timokos
/timokos
/timokos or /mooc-scoop
Directeur Onderwijs & Studentenzaken
slideshare.net/timokos
@KhanAcademyNL
www.khanacademy.nl
timo@khanacademy.nl

3. Content
0. Introduction
1. State of play
2. Impact analysis
3. Scenarios
4. Questions

4. Introduction

5. 1.
“The number of higher
education students in the
world is expected to
quadruple,
from around 100 million in
2000
to 400 million in 2030”
Foto: Ulrike Reinhard Learning Stations in Khajuraho, Rural India

6. To accommodate them we need to build
9.615 universities in 30 years
That is 3 universities
For 30.000 students
per week

7. 2.
Image CC BY Phillie Casablanca
“Students expect to
choose what they
learn, how they learn
and when they
learn”

8. •S
Yet, this is how we teach

9. O2E State of play

10. MOOCs: accelerating developments

11. What the MOOC?
•Massive
•Open
•Online
•Course
Image CC-BY-NC Gordon Lockhart:
http://gbl55.wordpress.com/2011/03/08/cck11-man-this-mooc-is-something-else/

12. Disruptive innovation or Hype?
“There is a tsunami coming. I can't tell you exactly how it‟s going to
break, but my goal is to try to surf it, not to just stand there.”
John Hennesy (former president Stanford), Wall Street Journal (june, 2012)

13. Open Online Education (O2E):
four related and interacting developments

14. Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the
early 20th century. Now dominated by the Open
Universities
14

15. Online Education (OE):
growing market & marketshares
„Change Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States‟ (2013)
15

16. Online Education (OE): popular programs
Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010
16

17. Online education (OE): student motives
‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research
17

18. http://ocwconsortium.org

19. Definitions of OCW & OER

20. Growth & use of Open Course Ware
43 million
unique visitors
per year

21. MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I)
A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now
cMOOC)
David Wiley (Brigham Young University)
George Siemens (Athabasca University)
Stephen Downes (National Research
Councel Canada)
21

22. MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)
B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes
(now xMOOCs)
Salman Khan
Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun
(Stanford)
Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller
(Stanford)
Prof. Anant Agarwal
(MIT)
22

23. xMOOC platforms (USA)
Opgericht:
Oprichter(s):
Profiel:
Budget:
Open Source:
Januari 2012
S. Thrun (Stanford)
Commercieel
$ 15 miljoen
Nee (licenties)
# Universiteiten:
# Cursussen:
# Studenten:
Disciplines:
geen
28
ca. 1 miljoen
Business, ICT, Math,
Science
Gecertificeerde diploma’s: Ja
Examens onder toezicht: Ja
(4000 locaties in 170 landen via
partnership met Pearson VUE)
Opgericht:
Oprichter(s):
Profiel:
Budget:
Open Source:
April 2012
Koller & Nge
(Stanford)
Commercieel
$ 65 miljoen
Nee (licenties)
Opgericht:
Oprichter(s):
Profiel:
Budget:
Open Source:
Mei 2012
MIT en Harvard
Not-for-profit
$ 60 miljoen
Gedeeltelijk (platform,
enkele cursussen)
# Universiteiten:
# Cursussen:
# Studenten:
Disciplines:
107
540+
4,5 miljoen
Alle
# Universiteiten:
# Cursussen:
# Studenten:
Disciplines:
29 (+ 3 landen)
90
ca. 1,5 miljoen
Alle
Gecertificeerde diploma’s:
Examens onder toezicht:
(5 geaccrediteerde cursussen en
partnership met ProctorU)
Ja
Ja
Gecertificeerde diploma’s:
Ja
Examens onder toezicht:
Ja
(1 accrediteerde cursus, identity verified
tracks)

24. introducing new (non-formal) certificates.

25. MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)
Evolution of MOOCs
„MOOC‟s and implications for Higher Education. A Whitepaper‟, (JISC, CETIS; March 2013). Relaties
tussen ODL, OE, OER/OCW & MOOC‟s., incl. relation between MIT OCW, Khanacademy & xMOOC

26. Revenue models?
• license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider
and universities offering courses hosted on the platform for tuition
paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g.
coaching)
• Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations
• Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students
• Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the
MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’
payment models of other internet services
• Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of
users of the platform.

27. State of play - NL

28. Delft: Online and Campus Education
•
•
•
•
•
Learning Activities & Course Materials
Free
Enrolled students only, massive numbers
Bachelors Level
Certificate of Completion
Massive Open
Online Courses
(MOOCs)
Open
Course
Ware
(OCW)
Campus
Education
•
•
•
•
•
On-campus Education
Top-class education and research facilities
World famous university library
Active student societies
Great opportunities to participate in special
student projects
Online Distance
Education
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Course Materials
Free
Big Exposure, Worldwide audience
Both Bachelor and Master level
No interaction with faculty
No accredited certificate
Learning Activities & Course Materials
Paid enrollment
Enrolled students only, limited numbers
Master level
Accredited Course Certificate
Full Master Degree

29. Platform

30. DelftX Courses
57,500
27,500
• Spring 2014:
• Introduction to Aerospace Engineering
• Next Generation Infrastructures

31. sMOOCs: emerging student patterns
„Emerging Student Patterns in MOOCs: A (Revised) Graphical View‟, Michael
Feldstein (maart 2013)

32. Enrollment & student activity

34. MOOCs in NL
EdX
Delft X
•
Solar Energy
54.500
•
Water Treatment
27.500
{Next Generation Infrastructures & Introduction to aerospace engineering}
n.a.
Coursera
Leiden
•
The law of the EU
46,000
•
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
26,000
Universiteit van Amsterdam
•
Introduction into communication Science (before on Sakai)
(1)6.000
TU Eindhoven
{Sports & Building Aearodynamics}
n.a.
OpenUpEd
Open Universiteit
•
E-learning (in Nederlands)
600

35. Impact

36. “When the outstanding
becomes so easily accessible,
average is over.”

37. Is it a HYPE
or a
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?

38. Different perspectives I: Hype Cycle
Gartner Hype Cycle, bron: Wikipedia

39. Peter Thiel: Higher Education bubble

40. Different perspectives II: Disruptive innovation theory
The theory of
ʺdisruptive innovationʺ
Top ranked (under) graduate
degree programs
High ranked (under)
graduate degree
programs
„A process by which a product or service
takes root initially in simple applications
at the bottom of a market and then
relentlessly moves „up market‟, eventually
displacing established competitors”
‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen,
Harvard Business School
Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The
Innovative University (2011)
Low ranked
(under) graduate
degree programs

41. Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA,
US Public Finance, Sept 2012

42. Different perspectives I:
Unbundling
Different perspectives II:
Disruptive innovation
theory

43. Scenario’s

44. The future?
Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program
Price: $ 6600,- for 3 years in stead of $ 40.000 per year
Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year
Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for
content)
• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for
Udactity
•
•
•
•

45. Scenario’s
1. Topuniversiteiten kunnen hun reputatie op onderzoeksgebied nu
ook uitbouwen op onderwijsgebied en wereldwijd toonaangevend
worden in de productie van de inhoud van online curricula
2. Grootschalige universiteiten met onvoldoende academische
onderscheidend vermogen kunnen eigen MOOC‟s of andermans
MOOC‟s inzetten in hun onderwijsprogramma‟s en daarmee een
goede prijs-kwaliteitverhouding blijven bieden voor de blended
opleidingen die zij aanbieden aan hun betalende campus-studenten
3. Gespecialiseerde universiteit die zich richten op een
academische en daarin tot de absolute wereldtop.
1. Lokale universiteiten die een belangrijke bijdrage leveren aan de
lokale economie en in toenemende mate gebruikmaken van de
MOOC‟s die andere universiteiten ontwikkelen.

46. Scenario matrix
46

47. CC BY: katerha: http://www.flickr.com/photos/katerha/6055323149/
Thank you