History of energy in few slides and what needs to happen NOW. Some considerations around energy and what we can do about it! More is available upon request.

1. Go backward
to move forward!
MSc Andrea Moretto
Keen on
Renewables
and
Sustainable Mobility
2014

2. Once upon a time
100% renewable
Non portable
AD3000 BC 2000 AD
Watermill
Windmill
Muscle power
Wood
2014 Andrea Moretto

3. The Industrial Revolution
 The Industrial Revolution was
“the transition to new
manufacturing processes in the
period from about 1760 to
sometime between 1820 and
1840”
= GROWING POWER DEMAND
2014 Andrea Moretto

4. XX century
Non renewable
Portable
AD3000 BC 2000 AD
2014 Andrea Moretto

5. Uses of petroleum
GASOLINE: Is the most commonly used product for day to day transportation needs
DIESEL FUEL: used in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles
BUNKER FUEL: used to power ships.
JET FUEL: the standard type of jet fuel, with addittives
HEATING OIL: used to fuel furnaces or boilers
PLASTICS: all plastic, unless it is “bio plastic”, is made from petrochemicals
DETERGENT: derived from the petrochemical glycerin
SYNTHETIC RUBBER: used for car tires and rubber soles on shoes
SYNTHETIC FIBERS: polyester, nylon, and acrylic are all derived from petrochemicals
FERTILIZERS & PESTICIDES: major commercial fertilizers are ammonia based, made from
natural gas, and most commercial pesticides come from oil
PAINT: plastic and oil based paints, as well as paint additives, are manufactured from
petrochemicals.
PHOTOGRAPHIC FILM: petrochemical ethylene is what is used in photographic film
FOOD ADDITIVES: the shelf life of canned foods can be increased by food additives
MAKE UP: make-up’s that contain oils, perfumes, waxes and color
MEDICINE: acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), the active ingredient in many pain reliever medicines
CANDLES: wax is a raw petroleum product

6. Green House
 Green house is a good idea
(earth avg surface T from -18°C to +14°C)
 Issue is the anthropic addition to normal
cycles, primarily due to fossil fuels
combustion (CO2)
 CO2 peak level of last 400.000 years was 300
ppm; in 60 years this grew to ~400 ppm
Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

7. GH consequences
Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

8. Global Climate Change: Future Trends
Phenomena
Likelihood of
trend
Contraction of snow cover areas, increased
thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea
ice extent
Virtually certain
Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat
waves and heavy precipitation
Very likely to
occur
Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur
Precipitation increases in high latitudes
Very likely to
occur
Precipitation decreases in subtropical land
regions
Very likely to
occur
Decreased water resources in many semi-
arid areas, including western U.S. and
Mediterranean basin
High confidence
Source: Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Synthesis report, November 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Definitions of likelihood ranges used to
express the assessed probability of
occurrence:
• virtually certain >99%
• very likely >90%
• likely >66%
“At the end of the last ice age,
when the Northeast United
States was covered by more than
900 m of ice, average
temperatures were only 5÷9 °C
cooler than today”

9. Philippines 2013
Sardinia 2013
Bavaria 2013
«In nature, nothing is created,
nothing is destroyed, everything is
transformed»
Antoine Lavoisier
“Satellite observations suggest a
1 °C temperature increase means
a 6% increase in both
atmospheric water vapor &
rainfall/evaporation rates”
http://eo.ucar.edu/staff/rrussell/beta/evaporation_rate/evaporation_rate.html

10. Why PV is great!
~17x 1GW nuclear
power plants @ 2013
1. > 130 GWp in operation worldwide, proven viable
2. 100% free and renewable source
3. non monopolistic-distributed generation
4. solid state technology based, subject to continous
performance improvements and cost decrease
5. close to end-user with low grid delivery losses
6. safe, no relevant by-products
7. durable, low maintenance, static components (>25y)
8. ~100% fully recyclable [Si, Al, Ag, Cu, EVA]
9. short energy payback (< 2 years)
10. 5x Italian surface as PV would fulfill word’s 2050 electric
energy demands

11. PV limitations
1. non adjustable
(need external
accumulation)
2. not predictable
(subject to sun
availability)
Batteries (chemical/phisical)
Water resevoirs

12. Electricity for lighting
accounts for ~15 % of global
power consumption and 5 %
of worldwide greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions.
If a global transition to
efficient lighting occurred,
these emissions could be
reduced by over one-third.
Lighting and global electricity
consumption
Source: http://www.enlighten-initiative.org/
55

13. Transportation energy demands
Source: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013, 25 July 2013
EIA, July 2013:
“world energy consumption to grow
56% 2010-2040,
CO2 up 46%;
use of liquid fuels in transportation up
38%”
<500M people
~1500M people
~1500M people
Population

14. Mbpd
Million barrels per day
2010 A 2040 F 30y variation
USA 18 899 18 635 -1,4 %
China 9 330 19 788 +112,1 %
India 3 225 8 223 +155,0 %
Liquid fuel demands
Source: IEO2013-World liquids consumption by region, Reference case data table

15. Energy ƞ for transportation purposes
Max well-to-wheel efficiency ~35% for Otto and 50% for
Diesel
Actual efficiency 20-40% depending on fuel and
technology
Max well-to-wheel efficiency >90%
Current efficiency 75-80% (inc. battery rech.) up to
88% with regenerative breaking
ICE
BEV

16. Final energy balance
(best case)
As utility companies build more efficient power plants and bring more renew. online,
the primary-to-wheel efficiency will significantly increase.
100 33÷60
100
100
∞
30÷40-
29÷53
88
Primary Secondary Utilized

17. Oil prices +50%
People +30% vs 2010
People in cities +40% vs 2010
Energy needs 3x vs 2010
Electricity needs 9x vs 2010
> 1/3 will be BE Vehicles
> 40% of energy from
RENEWABLES
BATTERY costs -70%
2050 will be...
Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013

18. 2050 energy mix?
#1 !
2x
½ x HC
1x  3x
Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013