This document discusses trends from 2010 regarding the future of society, government, technology and philanthropy. It notes that foresight helps with planning but is difficult to make time for. Looking back from 2020, it discusses an uneven distribution of new technologies and a desire for change in 2010. Underlying economic, environmental and social pressures created a complex situation for organizations. Technology growth like social media transformed communications while creating divisions around age and wealth. This led to predictions of smaller government and more localized, community-based solutions facilitated by individuals' direct online giving and volunteering.

1. foresight = preparedness

2. not prediction

3. helps you strategise

4. but it’s hard to make time
(catch 22)

5. looking back from 2020
(permanent beta,
please don’t sue)

6. ‘the future is already here –
it’s just unevenly distributed’ william gibson

7. the ‘teens’ began with desire for
change [coalition, electoral reform]

8. ‘there’s no more money’
the coalition response was part of a global
shift in how the state delivers (the 1990s now
seem as long ago as the 1970s did in 2010)
why did this happen?

9. underlying ‘crunch4’ of
economy, climate, resources
& stubborn, rising need

10. a rubik’s cube of new old words
big good
govt local
citizens society

11. cutting a smaller cake
cross-cutting social splits:
soaring expectations (eg
EU & UK equal rights law)
v
dwindling receipts
white-ish, ‘rich’,
baby-boomers-plus
v
young, diverse, poor,
‘undeserving’ migrants

12. in 2010, 36p of each £1 of
charity income was from govt
cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures)
ie: pre-ChangeUp investment
Statutory
funding of the
VCS, 2001/01-
2007/08
(£billions):
NCVO

13. innovation nation
eg: social impact bonds
way back in 2010
peterborough prison pilot
raised £5m
if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ
would share out savings
but many questions needed
resolving:
what change counts?
who counts it?

14. technology changed - exponentially
(click twice)

15. in 2020, social media is the media
not just comms & campaigns
the network effect caused explosive
growth. in 2010 twitter already had
180m users (after just 4 years)
(almost) the death of print media
in 2020 your mobile is the main way
you use the web
but the ‘IT poor’ are a real problem

16. 50+ global web philanthropy
exchanges in 2010 eg kiva
in 2020, you are the
philanthropist
real-time, direct relationship
with your pet projects
is there still a role for generalist
organisations when people can
source everything direct?
giving without the middle-man

17. atomised collectivity
(in 2010 we called it ‘community’)
small government (& small society?)
web-enabled micro-volunteering of
what Clay Shirky called your
‘cognitive surplus’
single equalities act
► ‘diversity mosaic’? not blending

18. back in 2010, what does all this
mean for our near future?

19. a push for local solutions.
individual & community responsibility
grassroots swell in community organising -
facilitated by technology, driven by need
all politicians try to conceptualise &
harness this (eg NESTA’s ‘mass localism’)
but no consensus yet on:
big / small
society / government
polls say we don’t think experts & govt
know best, & support others getting
involved. but volunteering is static, even
after 13 years of Labour investment !
Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-
relatives in the last 12 months
Citizenship Survey

20. there are so many ifs. eg…
how do the
statutory bodies in
your local area
influence your
organisation’s
success? (%)
Ipsos-MORI
for OTS

21. ‘it’s not the strongest that
survives, or the most intelligent,
it’s the most adaptable’