Non traditional security (asean)

Non-
Non-Traditional Security :
Trends and Issues

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Outline
• Th W ld i Ch i
The World is Changing
• Global Responses to
Global Responses to
Global Threats
• Country and Regional
Imbalance
•CCases and Issues
dI

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The World is Changing
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Emerging Globalization

The End of Cold War

3

Globalization
Definition
• According to the Oxford English Dictionary, the
According to the Oxford English Dictionary, the
word "globalization" was first employed in a
publication entitled Towards New Education in
publication entitled Towards New Education in
1952, to denote a holistic view of human
experience in education.
i i d ti

5

Globalization
Definition
• An early description of globalization was penned
y p g p
by the founder of the Bible Student movement
Charles Taze Russell who coined the term
Charles Taze Russell who coined the term
'corporate giants' in 1897.

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Globalization
Definition
• Thomas L. Friedman has examined the impact of
Thomas L. Friedman has examined the impact of
the "flattening" of the world, and argues that
globalized trade, outsourcing, supply‐chaining,
globalized trade outsourcing supply chaining
and political forces have changed the world
permanently, for both better and worse. He also
l f b hb l
argues that the pace of globalization is quickening
and will continue to have a growing impact on
business organization and practice.
g p
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Globalization
Definition
• The movement towards the expansion of
p
economic and social ties between countries
through the spread of corporate institutions and
through the spread of corporate institutions and
the capitalist philosophy that leads to the
shrinking of the world in economic terms.
shrinking of the world in economic terms.

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http://www.bized.co.th

Globalization Effect
• Industrial • Competition
• Financial • Cultural
• Economic • Social
• Job Market • Technical
• Political • Legal/Ethical
• Informational • Religious
• Language

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• Industrial – emergence of worldwide production
g g
markets and broader access to a range of foreign
products for consumers and companies.
Particularly movement of material and goods
Particularly movement of material and goods
between and within national boundaries.
International trade in manufactured goods
International trade in manufactured goods
increased more than 100 times (from $95 billion
to $12 trillion) in the 50 years since 1955.
$12 illi ) i h 50 i 1955

10

• Financial – emergence of worldwide financial
g
markets and better access to external financing for
borrowers. By the early part of the 21st century
more than $1.5 trillion in national currencies were
more than $1 5 trillion in national currencies were
traded daily to support the expanded levels of
trade and investment.
trade and investment

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• Economic – realization of a global common
g
market, based on the freedom of exchange of
goods and capital.

12

• Job Market ‐ competition in a global job market.
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In the past, the economic fate of workers was tied
to the fate of national economies. With the advent
of the information age and improvements in
of the information age and improvements in
communication, this is no longer the case.
Because workers compete in a global market,
Because workers compete in a global market
wages are less dependent on the success or failure
of individual economies. This has had a major
effect on wages and income distribution.
13

• Political – some use "globalization" to mean the
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creation of a world government which regulates
the relationships among governments and
guarantees the rights arising from social and
guarantees the rights arising from social and
economic globalization.

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• Political – the United States has enjoyed a position
p g p p
of power among the world powers, in part
because of its strong and wealthy economy. With
the influence of globalization and with the help of
the influence of globalization and with the help of
the United States’ own economy.

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• Political – the People's Republic of China has
p g
experienced some tremendous growth within the
past decade. If China continues to grow at the rate
projected by the trends, then it is very likely that
projected by the trends then it is very likely that
in the next twenty years, there will be a major
reallocation of power among the world leaders.
reallocation of power among the world leaders
China will have enough wealth, industry, and
technology to rival the United States for the
position of leading world power.
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• Informational – increase in information flows
g g p y
between geographically remote locations.
Arguably this is a technological change with the
advent of fiber optic communications, satellites,
advent of fiber optic communications satellites
and increased availability of telephone and
Internet.
Internet

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• Language – the most spoken first language is
– Mandarin (845 million speakers)
( p )
– Spanish (329 million speakers)
– English (328 million speakers)
English (328 million speakers).

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• Language – However the most popular second
g g y g
language is undoubtedly English,
– About 35% of the world's mail, telexes, and cables are
in English.
in English.
– Approximately 40% of the world's radio programs are
in English.
in English
– English is the dominant language on the Internet.

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• Competition – Survival in the new global business
p p y
market calls for improved productivity and
increased competition. Due to the market
becoming worldwide, companies in various
becoming worldwide companies in various
industries have to upgrade their products and use
technology skillfully in order to face increased
technology skillfully in order to face increased
competition.

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• Ecological – the advent of global environmental
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challenges that might be solved with international
cooperation, such as climate change, cross‐
boundary water and air pollution, over fishing of
boundary water and air pollution over‐fishing of
the ocean, and the spread of invasive species.
Since many factories are built in developing
Since many factories are built in developing
countries with less environmental regulation,
globalism and free trade may increase pollution
and impact on precious fresh water resources.
21

• Cultural – growth of cross‐cultural contacts;
g
advent of new categories of consciousness and
identities which embodies cultural diffusion, the
desire to increase one s standard of living and
desire to increase one's standard of living and
enjoy foreign products and ideas, adopt new
technology and practices, and participate in a
technology and practices and participate in a
"world culture".

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• Cultural – Spreading of multiculturalism, and
y( g
better individual access to cultural diversity (e.g.
through the export of Hollywood and K‐POP).

Others consider multiculturalism to promote
peace and understanding between people.

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• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is
the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of
monoculture in which no distinctions exist and
everyone shifts between various lifestyles in terms
of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly
attached to a single culture.
attached to a single culture

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• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is
the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of
monoculture in which no distinctions exist and
of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly
attached to a single culture.
attached to a single culture

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• Social – development of the system of non‐
g
governmental organizations as main agents of
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global public policy, including humanitarian aid
and developmental efforts.
and developmental efforts

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• Technical ‐ Development of a Global Information
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System, global telecommunications infrastructure
and greater transborder data flow, using such
technologies as the Internet, communication
technologies as the Internet communication
satellites, submarine fiber optic cable, and
wireless telephones.
wireless telephones
Increase in the number of standards applied
globally; e.g., copyright laws, patents and world
trade agreements.
trade agreements.
27

• Legal/Ethical ‐ The creation of the international
j
criminal court and international justice
movements.

Crime importation and raising awareness of global
crime‐fighting efforts and cooperation.

The emergence of Global administrative law.
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• Religious ‐ The spread and increased interrelations
g g p p
of various religious groups, ideas, and practices
and their ideas of the meanings and values of
particular spaces.
particular spaces

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Globalization could involve all these things!

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http://www.bized.co.th

Thomas L F i d
Th L. Friedman
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Feasibility: The Shrinking Globe

1500 -1840
1840 1850 - 1930 1950s 1960s

Propeller Jet
Steam locomotives aircraft passenger
Best average speed of
average 65 mph. 300 - 400 aircraft,
horse drawn
horse-drawn coaches
Steamships average mph.
S hi 500 - 700
and sailing ships, 10
36 mph. mph.
mph.

32

Globalization 1.0
Globalization 1 0
• Start: 1492 (Columbus Discovered America)
• End:1800
Player: Country

33

Globalization 1.0
Globalization 1 0

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Globalization 2.0
First Half
• Falling of Transportation Cost
Falling of Transportation Cost
• Steam Engine
• Rail Road
Player: Multinational Company

35

Globalization 2.0
Globalization 2 0
Second Half
• Falling of Telecommunication Cost
Falling of Telecommunication Cost
• Telegraph
• Telephone
• PC
• Fiber Optics
• WWW
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Globalization 2.0
Globalization 2 0

(c) Venkatraman, 2008 37

Globalization 3.0
Globalization 3 0
• Start: 2000

Player: Individual

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Globalization 3 0
Globalization 3.0
ENGINEERING
Software
??
??
Social Network Services
Tech S
T h Support

Medical
?? Design
??
Call Centers R&D
BPO LEGAL
Analytics
39

Globalization 1.0 – 3.0
Globalization 1 0 – 3 0

Globalization
Globalization Globalization
Globalization Globalization
Globalization
1.0 2.0 3.0
Country
C Company
C Individual
I di id l

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10 Forces That
Flattened The World

• Berlin Wall Coming Down • Offshoring
• Netscape IPO • Supply‐chaining
• Work Flow Software
W k Fl S ft • Insourcing
I i
• Uploading • In‐forming
g
• Outsourcing • The Steroids

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Triple Convergence
Triple Convergence
• The Flatteners
• New Habits Skills and Processes
New Habits, Skills and Processes
• A few billion new players

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Convergence 1
The Flatteners
• The flatteners started in about 1990.
• They had to spread take root and connect
They had to spread, take root and connect.
• SW Airlines let people make reservations and
p p
print their own boarding passes.
• Several firms built machines that would
f
print, fax, scan, email, and copy.
print, fax, scan, email, and copy.

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Convergence 1 – The Flatteners
Convergence 1 – The Flatteners
• Complementary goods are each better
because of the other.
because of the other
• We had a flat, global, web‐enabled playing
field for collaboration, sharing of knowledge
and work without regard to geography,
and work without regard to geography
distance, or (soon) language.

45

Convergence 2
• New technology and new ways of doing
business
• Wal‐Mart’s Big Box stores along with a
supply chain that ensured the stock was on
the shelf.
the shelf

46

Convergence 2
• HP, Cisco and Nokia collaborated on the
camera phone.
camera phone
• All the airlines are now letting you make your
reservations, pick your seats, print your
boarding passes.
boarding passes

47

Convergence 3
A few billion new players
• China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin
America, and Central Asia brought new
America and Central Asia brought new
players to the game.
• They did not go to the playing field, the
playing field came to them.
playing field came to them

48

Convergence 3
A few billion new players
• Because many of these new players did not
have legacy systems in place, they could go
have legacy systems in place they could go
straight to the latest technology. Many
Chinese skipped over land lines for cell
Chi ki d l d li f ll
p
phones. South Korea has much greater
g
internet usage and broadband penetration.

49

• Cli t Change
Climate Ch

• Competition Over
Resources

• Marginalization of
g
the Majority World

• Global Militarization
50

Climate Change
Climate Change
• The effects of climate change would lead to
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increased human suffering, greater social unrest,
revised patterns of living and the pressure of
greatly increased levels of migration across the
greatly increased levels of migration across the
world.

• This has long‐term security implications for all
This has long term security implications for all
countries which are far more serious, lasting and
destructive than those of international terrorism.
destructive than those of international terrorism
51

Climate Change
Climate Change
• The Social Impacts of Climate Change
• Nuclear is not the Answer
Nuclear is not the Answer
• Renewable Energy gy

52

Competition over Resources
• Industrialized and industrializing states are
increasingly dependent on imported
increasingly dependent on imported
resources, especially oil and gas.

• Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel
Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel
and the Persian Gulf is the dominant region,
with two‐thirds of world reserves.

53

• ‘Water politics’ already plays a part in
conflict in some regions of the world,
conflict in some regions of the world
particularly the Middle East.

• Demand for fresh water is well beyond that
Demand for fresh water is well beyond that
which can be sustained at current, much less
future, levels.

54

• The Resource Shift
• Oil and US Security
Oil and US Security
• Water Politics

56

Marginalization of the Majority World

• While overall global wealth has increased,
the benefits of this economic growth have
the benefits of this economic growth have
not been equally shared, with a very heavy
concentration of growth in relatively few
i f hi l i l f
p
parts of the world.

57


• These divisions are being exacerbated by
increasing oppression and political exclusion,
increasing oppression and political exclusion
coupled with a growing sense of
marginalization as a result of improvements
i li i l fi
in education and modern communication
technologies, leading in places to increased
levels of political violence.
levels of political violence

58


• Current security policies and the ‘war on
terror are not reacting appropriately to this
terror’ are not reacting appropriately to this
key trend, and are actually causing an
increase in support for radical and violent
i i f di l d i l
movements such as the al‐Qaida network.
Q
• • Policies to control such developments will
need to go beyond traditional methods of
counterterrorism to incorporate a wide
counterterrorism to incorporate a wide
range of conflict prevention and resolution 59

th d b t i f th t i l d


• The Security Implications of HIV/AIDS
• Socio economic Divisions
Socio‐economic Divisions
• The ‘War on Terror’

60

Global Militarization

• The current focus is on maintaining
international security by the vigorous use of
international security by the vigorous use of
military force.
• Post‐Cold War nuclear developments involve
the modernization and proliferation of
the modernization and proliferation of
nuclear systems, with an increasing risk of
limited nuclear weapons use in warfare –
breaking a threshold that has held for 60
breaking a threshold that has held for 60
years. 61


• Biological weapons have the potential to
become effective weapons of war, given
become effective weapons of war given
likely developments in genetic manipulation
and biotechnology. The negotiation of a
d bi h l h i i f
much strengthened Biological and Toxin
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Weapons Convention should be a priority.

62


• Forces in Transition
• The 9/11 Attacks and After
The 9/11 Attacks and After
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
p

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Country and Regional
Country and Regional
Imbalance

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65
Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

Country and Regional Imbalance

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67

Thailand’s NTS Issues

70

Political Turmoil
Causes of Conflict 71

Clash between
Conservative & Progressive

73

Security Sector Governance (SSG)

77

Groups of Power in Thailand

78

Equilibrium State for Thai Society

80

Thailand’s Southern Provinces
Insurgency 81

Causes of Conflict

82

Asymmetric Warfare

83

Causes of Conflict

84

Conflict and Complication
Conflict and Complication

85

A Solution in the Past

Phase I : Sponsor Block

Phase II : Military Push
Phase III : Forgive and Forget

87

A Concept
p

“Political L di
“P liti l Leading
the Milit
th Military Operations”
O ti ”

88

An Ultimate Gold

“All Thais are living together in the
peaceful way and Harmonization.”
f l dH i ti ”

90

A Concept
p

“Socio-culture L di
“S i lt Leading
the Milit
th Military Operations”
O ti ”

91

A Solution Framework

Phase I : Stabilize
Phase II : Strike Back
Phase III : Harmonize
Ph H i
Phase IV : Sustain
Ph S t i

92

A Solution Driven

“All Thais are
All Thais are
living together in
the peaceful way
Social
and
and
&
Harmonization.”
Economic
Social
&
Political • Phase IV
Social &
Military • Sustain
• Phase III
• Harmonize
Military • Phase II
• Strike Back
• Phase I
• Stabilize 93

Insurgency Conclusions
g y

• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious
Cause of the insurgency is not the religious.

• The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are
The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are
causes of the insurgency.
causes of the insurgency.
• It takes time to come to an end (more than 10
years).

94

Can AEAN accommodate global risks and opportunities?

Last Words
Last Words
“The world is not dangerous
because of t ose who do harm
o those o a
but because of those who look at
it without doing anything.”
g y g

Albert Einstein

Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a better
place to live in and we will consider it our mission to
i i i i i i i
assist our country our region and the world.

99

Non traditional security (asean)

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