Internal Dynamics of Pakistan and its Impact on National Security


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Internal Dynamics of Pakistan and its Impact on National Security

  1. 1. Pakistan Internal Dynamics and its Impact on National Security
  2. 2. Pakistan, a beautiful land of 180 million Muslims, coastlines, mountains, rivers, lakes and the only ideological Islamic nuclear state in the world. A country with the finest armed forces and great human resource, economic, agricultural and industrial potential.
  3. 3. A country which held great promises till 70‟s and was considered an emerging Asian Tiger, suddenly lost it‟s sense of direction and plunged into a depression.
  4. 4. The process of decay which crept in, set into motion religious, ethnic and parochial divisions, drifting us away from nationhood.
  5. 5. On the socio – political side Pakistan is a country which has seen and experimented everything, parliamentary democracy, presidential systems, martial laws, three constitutions and number of interim governments
  6. 6. But today, a nuclear armed nation is in a state of collapse – The county is under a massive 4th Generation war, asymmetric in nature, which is triggering a rapid collapse of the state into a failed dysfunctional country – something like Somalia.
  7. 7. Since the apocalyptic attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in the United States on September 11, 2001, almost 49,000 Pakistanis have died in urban wars, acts of terrorism, insurgencies, rebellions and low intensity conflict being fought within the boundaries of Pakistan. Almost 60% of Pakistan army is deployed on active war duties within the country and the armed forces have suffered 15,681 casualties while fighting Taliban militants in the tribal areas since 2008 – with 2009 being the deadliest year for them.
  8. 8. As the collapse of the Pakistani state and security intensifies, the presence of NATO/US/ISAF in Afghanistan and India on the East has now created a genuine two front threat for Pakistan. India‟s Cold start military doctrine is a potent threat for the future.
  9. 9. I R A Q It is feared that if the present anarchy and chaos continues Pakistan will suffer enormous losses. Unable to defeat Pakistan on the battlefield the enemies of Pakistan are most likely to use asymmetric warfare to weaken it from within. A fate not quite unlike Yugoslavia may thus be sought by our enemies. The Balkanization of Pakistan could be their ultimate aim. The war which Pakistan faces today is called 4th Generation War. The first model experimented for such a doctrine was Yugoslavia. A country with the fifth largest army was dismembered in just 3 years without any external land invasion but through insurgencies, ethnic, religious, provincial wars and economic collapse i.e through destabilizing internal security situation. Y u G O S L A V I A
  10. 10. The same doctrine is being applied in various degrees and levels, depending upon the country and the military objectives, in the Middle East today. Somalia, Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Iraq and now Syria ; time is no too far that they would try the same strategy for Iran and finally Pakistan and their plan for Pakistan might not be different, if we remain reluctant to change status quo of our deteriorating internal security situation.
  11. 11. What is 4th GW?? Destroy a country through an internal collapse and implosion of the state via political, social, economic and military means without actually having to launch a high intensity war from outside. In Pakistan, they have deployed all dimensions of 4th Generation War simultaneously.
  12. 12. 1. Military dimension – insurgencies, rebellions, terrorism. 2. Political chaos. Corrupt incompetent governments. Provincial and ethnic hatred. Democracy of the corrupt and compromised. 3. Economic collapse through corruption and financial controls. 4. Media and information war and Psy-Ops. 5. Social chaos – power, food, energy crisis and lawlessness.
  13. 13. AIM To discuss Internal Dynamics of Pakistan and its impact on National Security
  14. 14. SEQUENCE • Part 1-Fissiparous forces causing National Disintegration (Hannan) • Part 2-Unifying forces that promote National Integration (Usman) • Part 3-Internal security Situation (Zaigham) • Part 4- Ways Forward (By Farooq Butt)
  15. 15. • Religious Extremists have now resorted to militancy to impose their version of Islam on the citizens of Pakistan • Amongst those, the most outlawed outfit is TTP (Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan) • In December 2007 about 13 groups united under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud to form the Tehrik-iTaliban Pakistan, but not all, Pakistani Talibans are working under the leadership of TTP
  16. 16. • Among the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan's stated objectives are resistance against the Pakistani state, enforcement of their interpretation of sharia and a plan to unite against NATO-led forces in Afghanistan • The roots of the TTP as an organization began in 2002 when the Pakistani military conducted incursions into the tribal areas to originally combat foreign (Afghan, Arab and Central Asian) militants fleeing from the war in Afghanistan into the neighboring tribal areas of Pakistan
  17. 17. • On 25 August 2008, Pakistan banned the group, froze its bank accounts and assets, and barred it from media appearances. The government also announced that bounties would be placed on prominent leaders of the TTP • On 1 September 2010, the United States designated the TTP as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and identified Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali ur-Rehman as "specially designated global terrorists
  18. 18. • The Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan differ greatly in their history, leadership and goals although they share a primarily Deobandi interpretation of Islam and are both predominantly Pashtun. The two groups are distinct, though linked, movements • Brigadier (retd) Muhamaad Saad believes the Taliban are not a monolithic entity. "They can be divided into three broad categories: [Afghan] Kandahari Taliban, led by Mullah Omar; [Afghan] Paktia Taliban, led by Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani; and [Pakistani] Salfi Taliban [TTP], It‟s the Salfi Taliban who pose a real threat to Pakistan and they may not be obeying the Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar
  19. 19. • Intelligence analysts believe that these TTP's attacks on the Pakistani government, police and army strained relations between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban • Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar asked the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in late 2008 and early 2009 to stop attacks inside Pakistan, to change their focus as an organization and to fight the Afghan National Army and ISAF forces in Afghanistan instead
  20. 20. • The Balochistan conflict is an ongoing conflict between Baloch nationalists and the Government of Pakistan and Government of Iran over Balochistan, a region which includes the Balochistan province in southwestern Pakistan and the Sistan and Baluchestan Province of southeastern Iran • Balochistan is one of Pakistan‟s poorest regions although it has vast natural resources. Baloch separatists allege that the central government of Pakistan is systematically suppressing development in Balochistan to keep the Baloch weak
  21. 21. • Shortly after Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Pakistan Army had to subdue insurgents based in Kalat who rejected the Khan of Kalat's decision to accede to Pakistan • A subsequent Baloch separatist movement gained momentum during the 1960s, and amid consistent political disorder and instability at the federal level, the government ordered a military operation into the region in 1973, assisted by Iran, and inflicted heavy casualties on the separatists. Insurgency, however, again gained strength in the 1990s and 2000s
  22. 22. • The Balochistan Liberation Army has been accused by Pakistani state agencies of engaging in several domestic violent incidents • It has been designated as a terrorist group by the Government of Pakistan. Internationally, it has been officially designated as a terrorist group by the Home Office of the government of the United Kingdom
  23. 23. • Brahamdagh Bugti in an interview stated he would accept aid from India, Afghanistan and Iran which would help in the defence of Baluchistan. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India, and occasionally the U.S., of supporting the Baluch rebels in order to destabilise the country claiming undeniable evidence • In August 2013 US Special Representative James Dobbins said Pakistan's fears over India's role in afghanistan are “not groundless • Defense Secretary and former Senator Chuck Hagel said "India for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border”
  24. 24. • According to the HDI, 60.3% of Pakistan's population lives on under $2 a day, compared to 79% in nearby India and 81.3% in nearby Bangladesh, and some 22.6% live under $1 a day, compared to 24.9% in India and 49.6% in Bangladesh • According to the United Nations Human Development Report, Wealth distribution in Pakistan is highly uneven, with the top 10% of the population earning 27.6% and the bottom 10% earning only 4.1% of the income
  25. 25. • Poverty has proved destabilizing factors for Pakistani society that have been exploited by militant organizations banned by the government to run schools and produce militant literature. Though many madrassas are benign, there are some that subscribe to the radicalist sect of Wahabi Islam • As a result, militant Islamic political parties have become more powerful in Pakistan and have considerable sympathy among the poor. This phenomenon is more pronounced in KPK.
  26. 26. Pakistan is experiencing a sharp resurgence in sectarian violence. Sectarian conflict in Pakistan is the direct consequence of state policies of Islamisation and marginalisation of secular democratic forces. Some explain Pakistani sectarianism as resulting from a proxy war ( i.e between Saudis and Iranians). Some say that it resulted due to Iranian revolution and Gen Zia-ul-Haq Islamization policy of promoting a particular thought. Which ever version is true, but it is fuelling terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan and has proved so far detrimental to our Nation.
  27. 27. • Among those blamed for the sectarian violence in the country are mainly Sunni militant groups such as • It is widely accepted that sectarian violence in Pakistan is a recent phenomenon and that for most of the country's history, people of different sects have co-existed peacefully. • The development of sectarianism is widely attributed to be a result of financial funding of fundamentalist networks, numbering in millions of dollars, by Arab states and other outside powers inside Pakistan
  29. 29. • There is a fundamental difference between and , • When political activism reaches a point at which street power is used taking up weapons to enforce political will and eliminating other political rivals, violent protests disrupt civil life and stable government; and coercion is applied on general masses to create financial inflows ; then Urban terrorism comes into scene • No civilized society can afford to stand by and allow urban guerrilla warfare to be waged in its streets
  30. 30. • All major political parties in Sindh – the PPP, the MQM and the ANP have militant factions in Karachi. Initially meant as a self-defense mechanism on ethnic lines, their activities now border on the criminal activities, way beyond the safe line separating political activism from crime • In Pakistan, targeted killings ,one of the form of urban terrorism, have been a rising form of violence and have contributed to security instability in the country. They have become common and have gained attention especially in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and economic capital
  31. 31. • Urban Terrorism has to be tackled differently from the normal means employed to maintain law and order as there is a vast difference between terrorists and criminals e.g A criminal‟s mission in life is profit, as such destruction is a secondary objective, if at all. For a terrorist, destruction of life and property and spread of terror are primary objectives • In Karachi, several evidences indicates involvement of foreign hands in distribution of arms and ammunition amongst urban terrorists groups
  32. 32. • Balochistan situation aside, there are other issues which make the inter-provincial and federal-provincial irritants another major challenge to reckon • The issue of the centre-province relationship has always been one of the most intractable questions of Pakistan politics • Pakistan‟s smaller provinces resent political exclusion and are unhappy with the inadequate sharing of power and resources within the Country because of varying size, population, development and revenue generation capacity of the provinces
  33. 33. Provincial Autonomy • The powers of the provinces may look impressive when one confines oneself to the distribution of legislative powers, but when one examines the administrative and financial aspects of the federal versus provincial authorities; dominance of the former is clearly manifested. • There has always been an argument that more autonomy to provinces would be injurious to Pakistan‟s integrity and unity, but in fact, the question of centre-province relations has been masking the imperative for the ruling élite to keep a restive Pakistan together.
  34. 34. NFC Award President‟s NFC Award has never fully satisfied smaller provinces who were bidding for a more broad-based division than on population alone. Questions have also been raised on President‟s powers to award. However, in 2010, the Govt takes credit for coming into a consensus position on NFC. But the issue will rise again
  35. 35. Income & Royalties • Balochistan‟s demand on payment of income from excise levied at gas well-heads and revised rate/share of royalties, and NWFP‟s on hydel stations/ power are gaining momentum. • Bugtis have been reacting violently, blowing up gas pipelines leading the government to react with announcements of more cantonments in the province. • Both provinces have a case for net proceeds and revised royalties in accordance with Article 161 of the Constitution
  36. 36. Sindhi Nationalism This thinking has shown itself as a deep seated antagonism against Punjabis and Mohajirs. In fact Sindh stands polarized between Sindhis and Mohajirs. Sindhis control the rural areas and smaller towns, while Mohajirs are predominant in the urban centers
  37. 37. Water Distribution • According to Indus Water Basin Treaty of 1960. Punjab was deprived of three out of its five rivers. The Treaty, however, stipulates that River Indus Water would be equitably distributed among the provinces • The present share of water is 40% each for Punjab and Sindh; 11% for NWFP and 9% for Balochistan • With the passage of time none of the provinces is satisfied with its present share, each province wants enhancement of its share
  38. 38. Dam Controversy • A project of national importance, KBD (Kala Bagh Dam) has become controversial in Pakistani politics. • Given the opposition to KBD, the government has wisely backed down on the project in favour of Bhasha Dam for the sake of national integration. • All the issues have been technically negated by the experts, however, petty vested political interests have disallowed consensus on this project of national importance. Political will has always been found lacking to move forward on the project
  39. 39. The future threats for Pakistan: Direct military attacks and intervention into Pakistan to provoke a confrontation between Pak army and Afghanistan based NATO forces. This has also begun. Drones, Salala attack and now threats of attacks in North Waziristan. US wants Pakistan to open war with Afghan Taliban also. Pakistan already has its hands full in internal insurgencies and hence is resisting the US pressure. While US is talking peace with Afghan Taliban and their allies, Pakistan is being forced to wage a war against Haqqani, Hekmatyar and Mullah Umer. Direct attacks on Pakistan army leadership and on all strategic assets to decapitate Pakistan in a single strike and then launch a massive two prong invasion under Af-pak and Cold start.
  40. 40. ISLAMIC IDEOLOGY • Addressing passing out parade of 127 PMA Long Course, Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that since Islam is the basis of Pakistan‟s creation, it can never be taken out from the body politic and it should serve as .
  41. 41. • It is Islam which had given a reason for the Muslims of subcontinent to seek for a state based on Islamic Ideology irrespective of their caste, creed, language, tradition and culture • Pakistan is neither a „theocratic state‟, nor a „secular state‟. It is a territorial state founded on the Islamic principles of democracy, freedom, equality, tolerance and social justice, as enumerated in the Objectives Resolution • Islam will remain a in our society and a and we can not separate ourselves from it
  42. 42. PAKISTAN ARMY • With no exaggeration, Pak Army is considered as the most prestigious institution in Pakistan. • It has representation from all over the Pakistan and provides equal opportunity of employment to every citizen in Pakistan without any discrimination. • It has always proved up to the expectations of the Nation
  43. 43. • Pak army and ISI orchestrated the destruction of Soviet Union in Afghanistan and have blocked Indian hegemony in the region despite Indian forces being 3 to 5 times stronger in strength in conventional and unconventional forces. • The whole nation pins its HOPE on Pak Army in case of any untoward eventuality whether it be 1948 War, 1965 War, 1971 War, Kargil War, Escalation of 2002, War on Terror in Western Front. Pak Army has always come to their service in case of any natural disaster. It has even come in aid of civil power to restore law and order in cities.
  44. 44. With most professional armed forces, Pakistan Air force is the only Muslim Air force to have shot down Indian, Israeli and Soviet fighter planes in air to air combat in various wars
  45. 45. MM Alam is the Worlds best Fighter pilot with world record to shoot down 5 indian fighter jets in 57 seconds for unbeaten record
  46. 46. COMMON ENEMY
  47. 47. • Since Independence, India has proved to have been bitter enemy of Pakistan • This phenomenon is crystal clear to every Pakistan that India is of Pakistan and even wants to remove her very existence form the map of the world • Our nation has always got , whenever India aggressed against Pakistan
  48. 48. • Initially people of Pakistan had against TTP, but with increasing and ruthless suicide attacks against innocent citizens, this notion of doubt is no longer prevalent in the society • Now, every patriotic Pakistani considers
  49. 49. PATRIOTISM Pakistan has a traditional society which is full of several kinds of inequalities and various kinds of prejudices and discriminations based on caste, creed, race, tribe, sex, wealth language etc. So in these circumstances Pakistani nationalism is the only ideology of the Pakistani nation
  50. 50. PATRIOTISM • Pakistani patriotism inspires all Pakistanis, regardless of any discrimination, to defend Pakistan against all challenges of its unity, solidarity and integrity. The principles of Pakistani nationalism were proclaimed by Quaid-e-Azam in his speech at Dhaka on 21 March, 1948, in which he said, • “You belong to a Nation now, you have now carved out a territory, vast territory, it is all yours; it does not belong to a Punjabi, or a Sindhi, or a Pathan, [or a Balochi] … it is yours.”
  51. 51. PATRIOTISM • Parochialism and regionalism must be replaced by national integration and cohesion. This is only possible through mutual understanding and co-operation, tolerance and unity in diversity and a policy of mutual respect amongst the masses. The sense of Patriotism fortunately still lies in the root of our National Integration
  52. 52. DEMOCRACY • The uninterrupted supply of democracy can simmer down the ethnic and sectarian conflicts ravaging Pakistan in at least several ways • First, while ethnicity keeps societal groups fixed, democracy offers a solution through their mobilization • Democracy let the individual come out of the confines of an ethnic identity and yearns for a social identity • Democracy offers a medium for integration of ethnic communities and sectarian groups into the national mainstream
  53. 53. DEMOCRACY • Democracy promotes (rounds and rounds of) negotiations to make peaceful co-existence possible • Democracy encourages the formation of an environment in which an equitable distribution of economic resources is possible • Democracy keeps a country integrated. When ethnic groups are marginalized, they yearn for a sovereign territory or try to create one on their own, instead of letting people take refuge in ethnic and sectarian isolation and perhaps separatism, democracy offers a common medium to get recognized with
  55. 55. • For a long time, Pakistan has been considered a “national security” state – in part, because it has been directly governed by the Army for most of its postcolonial history, but also because most of its policies focus on the “security of the state” • Since 2001, the Pakistan Army has deployed over 150000 regular and Para military troops along Pak-afghan border to combat militancy
  56. 56. • Even as Pakistan fights the War on Terror – and remains a frontline state in this global war – it has suffered over 44,000 civilian casualties and more than 5,000 military casualties • In suicide attacks in the year 2013, so far 681 people have been killed and 1245 people have been injured (Data till Sep 2013) • Total number of 458 bomb blasts incidents occurred in 2013 resulting in death of 1456 individuals while 3547 got injured
  57. 57. FATALITIES IN TERRORIST VIOLENCE Civilians Security Force Personnel Terrorists/Insurgen ts Total 2003 140 24 25 189 2004 435 184 244 863 2005 430 81 137 648 2006 608 325 538 1471 2007 1522 597 1479 3598 2008 2155 654 3906 6715 2009 2324 991 8389 11704 2010 1796 469 5170 7435 2011 2738 765 2800 6303 2012 3007 732 2472 6211 2013 2606 564 1464 4634 Total* 17761 5386 26624 49771 Data till Sep 2013
  58. 58. FATALITIES IN 2013 Civilians Security Force Personnel Terrorists/Insurge nts Total January 414 70 265 749 February 360 44 201 605 March 249 43 193 485 April 230 88 234 552 May 283 81 185 549 June 326 62 104 492 July 240 68 149 457 August 224 62 62 348 September 280 46 71 397 Total 2606 564 1464 4634 Data till Sep 2013
  59. 59. Pakistan Region wise Civilians SFs Terrorists Total Balochistan 613 125 85 823 FATA 301 172 1133 1606 KP 564 134 126 824 GilgitBaltistan 12 6 0 18 Azad Kashmir 0 0 0 0 Punjab 43 4 7 54 Sindh 1073 123 113 1309 Total 2606 564 1464 4634
  60. 60. SECTARIAN KILLINGS IN 2013 Month Incidents Killed Injured January February 15 26 124 141 176 227 March April May June July August September 8 4 2 6 3 15 6 9 4 4 48 68 28 9 2 0 14 88 182 42 12 TOTAL 85 435 743
  61. 61. • For its participation in the War on Terror, Pakistan‟s economy has also suffered – directly and indirectly – to the tune of approximately US$ 68 billion as of government figures released in the Pakistan Economic Survey 2010-11; a cost that is now reaching US$ 100 billion as of 2013 • For a developing country like Pakistan, which has now been relegated to the status of a frontier economy, such costs are more than unbearable
  62. 62. • In the 21st century, national security and law & order go hand in hand, especially for the case of Pakistan, since the country is not only facing an Islamic militant insurgency in its western tribal areas, but is also facing the fifth Baluch insurgency that commenced after the unfortunate death of a Baluch tribal leader
  63. 63. • Apart from this two pronged threat on its western front, Pakistan now faces radicalism and extremism within its cities and rural areas: kidnappings for ransom, extremist attacks on minority sects such as Shi‟ites (or inter-faith killings, such as attacks on Christian communities and on Ahmadi‟s), target killings, and the unchallengeable “street power” of the fundamentalist right – a mob mentality that forces even moderates to join the fray because neither the state nor its institutions would protect them and their beliefs – are a reality that law enforcement agencies cannot seem to grapple with.
  64. 64. • Recent arrests of terror cells in Lahore, and targeted operations in Karachi (which have been going on for three years now), do not fall under the category of counter-insurgency or counterterrorism, nor do they appear as attempts to deal with radicalism and extremism that still pervades Pakistani society, and embeds itself in the mindset of Pakistani citizens for reasons of religious belief, association and marginalization, even economic backwardness and poverty
  65. 65. • In addition, the “bhatta” or extortion culture, which seemed limited to Karachi, is now spreading across Pakistan, with cases being reported in the Punjab and even in the federal capital of Islamabad.
  66. 66. • The Karachi conundrum is the latest backlash that Pakistan is facing for its role in the War on Terror. Targetkillings, kidnappings-for-ransom, mobile-snatching, armed robberies, murders and assassinations have picked up pace in the city, with as many as 1,726 citizens being killed in acts of violence in the first six months of 2013 alone • Not only are terrorist and political organizations running amok in the provincial metropolis, but it also appears that Karachi has become a battleground for sectarian groups, and a stage for the “New Great Game”, where international powers seek to establish and protect their interests by any means necessary
  67. 67. Thorough analysis of the causes of terrorism and its ineffaceable impacts indicate that in Pakistan this phenomenon has not come to fore overnight. It has taken decades to flourish and involves many factors. Since terrorism is a multifaceted, the solution has to be multi-pronged
  68. 68. Reviewing Federal Structure – Creating more Federating Units
  69. 69. • In the greater interest of national integration, Punjab‟s “big brother syndrome” needs to be addressed • Starting with 10 states, India now has 28 • Our Provinces may also divided on administrative ground, instead of ethnic/linguistic lines
  70. 70. Solving Balochistan Problem
  71. 71. • Involvement of foreign powers, • The response has to be firm. However, While firmly establishing the writ of the state, the insurgents need to be engaged politically
  72. 72. Political Stability
  73. 73. Sustained democracy in its holistic form, backed up by an independent Election Commission, will bring moderate and truly representative forces to the front, check religiously radical parties and help improve Pakistan‟s international image
  74. 74. Development of Consensus for Firm Action against Terrorists
  75. 75. • All political parties, government, opposition and security agencies should develop consensus for firm action against terrorists • Political ownership of military action must be taken for effective impact
  76. 76. Invitation for Dialogue
  77. 77. A dialogue and reconciliation process must start from the with the groups
  78. 78. Mainstreaming of FATA and PATA
  79. 79. • Government should immediately initiate political, legislative and socio-economic measures with a view to mainstreaming the agencies • This will help establishing the writ of the government in these areas.
  80. 80. Conversion to Economic Zones
  81. 81. • Utilizing the natural resources of the troubled area, the process of industrialization should start with reconciliatory approach – Provision of employment opportunities to the locals – Redress sense of economic deprivation of the local population. – Inculcate awareness amongst the locals of their positive role in the development process of the country
  82. 82. Madrassa Reforms
  83. 83. • National counter terrorism strategy should also account for madrassa reforms • All the madrassas should be registered • Their curriculum , financial patronage and training activities should be under “CHECK”
  84. 84. Role of Media
  85. 85. • In order to fight terrorism, Pakistan‟s media should play a key role • It must point out the criminal activities of the militants • It should also indicate that Islam is a religion of peace and does not allow suicide attacks
  86. 86. Role of Religious Scholars
  87. 87. • They should voice true teachings of Islam regarding Jihad • They should openly denounce and declare suicide attack against Pakistan as “HARAM” • They should not keep a tilt to religious militants relating to their own sect • They should also emphasize on obtaining Modern Education as a need of the time