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1. Nexus of Forces: Impact of MobileNexus of Forces: Impact of Mobile
and Social
Jonathan Krause
Executive Partner
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2. Gartner delivers the technology-relatedgy
insight necessary for our clients to make
the right decisions, every day.g , y y

3. A NEXUS OF FORCESA NEXUS OF FORCES
p e o p l e c o n n e c t w i t h
o n e a n o t h e r a n d
i n t e r a c t w i t h a
f
T h e
s e a m l e s s n e s s o f
t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e s
w e a l t h o f
i n f o r m a t i o n .
r e l i e s o n a n
u n d e r l y i n g c l o u d
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e
P e o p l e e x p e c t
t h i s p r o l i f i c
U s i n g m u l t i p l e
d e v i c e s a n d
a p p l i c a t i o n s o f
t h i s p r o l i f i c
i n t e r a c t i v i t y
a n d i n f o r m a t i o n
a c c e s s f o r a l l
a p p l i c a t i o n s o f
t h e i r c h o o s i n g t h e i r r o l e s . .

4. People Are the Driver
The Nexus of Forces supports/reflects how people want
to interact with each other and their "information."
Use info
Her appsYour apps
Mobile
Generate infoCaptive
Open social
network
Closed social
network

5. People Are the Driver
The Nexus of Forces supports/reflects how people want
to interact with each other and their "information."
Use info
Her appsYour apps
Mobile
Generate infoCaptive
Open social
network
Closed social
network

6. What happens behind the glass?
Extreme complexity?Extreme complexity?

7. Basic relationships among Nexus of Forces

8. . . . an inevitable change event
• Independent evolution of four powerful forces• Independent evolution of four powerful forces
has converged.
• There is seamless consumerization with• There is seamless consumerization with
immediate access to information and the
ubiquity of connected smart devices.
• People now expect this prolific interactivity and
information access in their workplace.
• This creates a Nexus of Forces that drives
business at an increasingly accelerated pace.
7

9. Nexus of Forces Disruption Trends
• By 2015, 40% of large enterprises will have a corporate
"Facebook" for circulating business and personal dataFacebook for circulating business and personal data.
• Through 2014, most social initiatives will fail. In 2011,
63% of IT respondents (N = 412) did not know the
it isuccess criteria.
• By 2016, mobile payments will be used by 448 million
users and have $617 billion in transaction valueusers and have $617 billion in transaction value.
• By 2014, 40% of enterprises will make proof of security
testing precondition for using any type of cloud services -
i f l th 1% i 2011
5
an increase from less than 1% in 2011.
5
• Through 2015, more than 90% of business leaders
contend that information is a strategic asset, yet fewer
8
contend that information is a strategic asset, yet fewer
than 10% will quantify its economic value.
6

10. Consumerization and the Nexus Means
We Must Re-Examine Old Assumptions
Old IT Assumptions
How must … … You change?
New IT Assumptionsp

11. Challenges
The Nexus of Forces makes
Existing architectures
Many IT strategiesMany IT strategies
Organizational structures
The way IT works OBSOLETEThe way IT works

12. Successful CIOs and IT Departments Must
Get Ahead, Not Just Catch Up!
ITIT

13. What's Changing?
• The impact of the four nexus forces will amplify each other.
• Don't assume that IT can control things or will be the• Don t assume that IT can control things or will be the
only buyer.
• You will give more responsibility away to others.g p y y
• Trust is becoming more valuable to enterprises.
• Revenue squeeze on vendor taxes (support/maintenance).q ( pp )
• Data must be ruled by context and content.
• Your customers will become involved in your business.y
• Vision/leadership matters more.
Who will be the vendors you trust in the future?Who will be the vendors you trust in the future?

14. History Shows: The Nexus Disrupts
Traditional Vendors and Adds New Ones
Established Vendors Disruptive Vendors

15. Big Disruptive Vendors Align With
Disruptive Forces

16. Cloud: Delivery Has Changed Forever, So
"Focus on Outcomes, Not Technology"
Gartner defines cloud computing as "a style of
computing where scalable and elastic IT-related
capabilities are provided 'as a service' to
t i I t t t h l i "customers using Internet technologies."
The value of a cloud
computing service is in
the outcomes itthe outcomes it
enables, just as the
value of a treadmill is
in building heart healthin building heart health
or losing weight.

17. Information: Context Has Changed Forever,
So Start "Extreme Information Management"
Velocity Volume
Context and
ContentContent
Create Our
InformationInformation
Future
Variety Complexity

18. Mobile: Access Has Changed Forever,
So "Let Go of the Desktop"
Emerging ClientTraditional Client Emerging Client
• Multidevice, mobile
• Centrally hosted
• Non enterprise owned
Traditional Client
• Standard PC
• Enterprise-owned
• Corporate image and • Non-enterprise-owned
• "Bubbles" (virtual machines)
• Streamed applications
• Desktop as a service
• Corporate image and
installed applications
• Desktop as a service
On the way toward "hardware, don't care,"
Moore's Law raises the "good enough" baseline.

19. Corporate & Personal Mobile Devices
The Post-PC Era has Arrived
Devices 3.5 bn
Predicted Global Mobile Device
Shipments 2012 Through 2015
3.5 bn
Predicted Global Mobile Device
Shipments 2012 Through 2015
Mobility isn't about devices or networks…
2 bn
2.5 bn
3 bn
Mobile PCs
Media tablets
Mobile phones2 bn
2.5 bn
3 bn
Mobile PCs
Media tablets
Mobile phones
I’ve seen the future
of business (&
government)… …it's about service and
i ti
Peripherals
1 bn
1.5 bn
Mobile phones
(open OS; that is,
smartphones)
Mobile phones
(closed OS; that is,
f t h )
1 bn
1.5 bn
Mobile phones
(open OS; that is,
smartphones)
Mobile phones
(closed OS; that is,
f t h )
and it’s mobile innovation.
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and
smart machines
0.5 bn
2012 2013 2014 2015
feature phones)0.5 bn
2012 2013 2014 2015
feature phones)
Apps and new business modelsApps and new business models

20. Corporate & Personal Mobile Devices
BYOD Is Only the Tip of the Icebergy g
Bring Your Own Device
Bring Your Own Apps
Bring Your Own Friends
Bring Your OwnPhotos
DataPhotos

21. Enterprise App Stores
Offer Fast Procurement & Consumer Choice
As employees increasingly rely on mobile, Web and cloud apps to do
their jobs, and as enterprises appreciate the risks of employees
sourcing apps from consumer websites and app stores the pressuresourcing apps from consumer websites and app stores, the pressure
to implement a safe, enterprise alternative will grow.
App Store Roadmap
Commodity Catalog
E t i C t t M tEnterprise Contract Management
Exchange Platform
Provision, deployment, updates
Noncommodity services facilitation

22. Mobile and Wireless
By 2015, mobile application development (AD) projects targeting
smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by
a ratio of 4-to-1
• Smartphones and tablets represent over
90% of the net-new growth in device
• In B2C, most CMOs are demanding
applications, which can add even greater
a ratio of 4-to-1.
Why? What it means?
90% of the net new growth in device
adoption for the coming four years.
• Mobile AD is rapidly moving through its
adolescence.
Th d fi iti f li ti i
applications, which can add even greater
value or opportunity if they are resident
and provide stickiness to consumers.
• In B2E, bring your own device (BYOD) is
having a major impact on user demand.
• The very definition of applications is
changing.
having a major impact on user demand.
• In B2B, most organizations cannot
dictate the devices being used.
What to do?
• AD organizations should perform a mobile-only, mobile-first or legacy assessment
of AD. Too many developers still assume that desktop applications are needed, ory p p pp
that legacy applications need to be moved forward.

23. Social: Behavior Has Changed Forever,
So "Embrace Crowds"
1985 Personal
Productivity
1995 Knowledge
Distribution
2012 Collective
Empowerment
Office suitesOffice suites
Individual contentIndividual content
Email attachmentsEmail attachments
Content distributionContent distribution
Social mediaSocial media
Mass collaborationMass collaboration
Filing cabinetsFiling cabinets
PersonalPersonal
Computer networksComputer networks
TeamsTeams
People networksPeople networks
CollectivesCollectives
Are you prepared for this fundamental empowerment shift?

24. Contextual & Social User Experience
Context Pulls It All Togetherg
Identity: Core
information about
Community: Rules that
bind users together in
Organizations
Providers
Users
information about
individuals
g
social groups or across
the enterprise
Intent: Inferred from
emotion, location, past
behavior, business
rules etc
Environment: End-
point-specific, network-
specific and location-
based attributes
Gartner Context Delivery Architecture (CoDA)
rules, etc. based attributes
Information Model

25. Social Software and Collaboration
By 2016, at least 50% of enterprise email users will rely primarily
on a browser, tablet or mobile client, instead of a desktop client.
• Rise in popularity of mobile devices
d th i f t ith
• Mobile device manufacturers enter
h f titi t ff
Why? What it means?
and the growing comfort with
browser use for enterprise
applications.
• Migration away from local email
a new phase of competition to offer
rich email clients.
• Market opportunities for mobile
device management platformMigration away from local email
archives/folders to very large,
centralized mailboxes (particularly in
the cloud).
device management platform
vendors will soar.
What to do?
• Develop policies for corporate- and employee-supplied devices, and implement rich
device management applications for controlling and securing remote access.
• Upgrade email systems to support rich browser and mobile devices.

26. Social
S i l id i t t d f bilit• Social provides important need for mobility
• Social depends on cloud for scale and access
• Social feeds and depends on deep analysis

27. Recommendations
 Evaluate your IT service catalog, organizational capabilities,
application portfolio and strategic roadmap relative to the Nexus of
Forces.
 Identify the technologies and services you will continue to support or
must acquire and those you will divest or broker.
 Define a new set of core capabilities for your IT organization.
Structure them in terms employee productivity, constituent
experience, organizational effectiveness, and public value.
 Prioritize and sequence your acquisition of current and emerging
technologies.

28. Recommended Gartner Research
 Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2012
and Beyond: Control Slips Away
Daryl C. Plummer, Stephen Prentice and others (G00226767)Daryl C. Plummer, Stephen Prentice and others (G00226767)
 Top Industry Predicts 2012: Industries Face Intensified
Consumerization and Technology Disruption
Kimberly Harris-Ferrante (G00226058)y ( )
 Predicts Landing Page on gartner.com
Also see previous reports:
 "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2011
and Beyond: IT's Growing Transparency"
Brian Gammage, Daryl C. Plummer, Ray Valdes and others
(G00208367)(G00208367)
 "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010
and Beyond: A New Balance"
Brian Gammage, Daryl C. Plummer, Ed Thompson and othersBrian Gammage, Daryl C. Plummer, Ed Thompson and others
(G00173482)
For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or email us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.