The document discusses the evolution from Gov 2.0 to Gov 3.0 and the impact of technological advancements on society by 2020. It highlights the exponential increase in data production and the significant changes in communication, connectivity, and health care dynamics driven by digital technologies. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for public sectors to adapt by leveraging automation, collaboration, and participatory democracy to meet new societal demands.

1. Source:MattNovak’sPaleo-Futureblog
From Gov2.0 in 2010
… to Gov3.0 in 2020
What’s
Next?
EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio

2. Page 2
EDB 2010
The trouble with our times
is that the future is not
what it used to be PaulValery

3. Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog

4. Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog

5. Page 5
EDB 2010

6. Page 6
EDB 2010

7. Page 7
EDB 2010
From change as the
exception
to …
…
change
as the norm

8. Underlying
megatrends that
are shaping
tomorrow
Towards 2020

9. Once again, industrialisation
is changing our society…

10. .. but now with an abundant
access to raw materials:
CPU capacity continues to
double every 18 months
(”Moore’s Law”)
130x
from 2010
to 2020

11. Storage capacity continues to
double every 12 months
(”Kryder’s Law”)

12. 2,000x
(in 10 years)
… and then, with startling
speed; Network bandwidth
triples every 18 months
(”Gilder’s Law”)

13. ICT
∑Possibilities
∞→
ICT
∑Price → 0
Two remarkable rules seem to apply
for the primary means of production
in the information society:

14. Page 14
EDB 2010
$600M
x36
STILL…

15. «Cheap, utility-
supplied computing
will ultimately
change society as
profoundly as cheap
electricity did»
Nicholas Carr

16. The widespread democratisation of
means of production and distribution is
impacting and transforming our society
more than the industrial revolution

17. Et voilà; Une
explosion de
l'information!

18. It is estimated that one week of
newspaper content …

19. .. equals more information than
one person received during a
lifetime in the 18th century

20. It is calculated that the global content
production this year will amount to
1,000 exabyte
Source: “The Expanding Digital Universe,”
IDC; sponsored by EMC

22. …or more content than
was produced during the
previous 5,000 years
(combined)

23. > 4B pictures uploaded to Flickr (as of October 2009)
> 2B new pictures uploaded to Facebook – each month

24. 13 hours
-uploaded video to YouTube
-every minute

25. 247 billion
- number of e-mails per day in 2009
(81 percent was spam…)

27. Up Next:
“The Internet of Things”

28. «In 2011, 2B people will be connected to the
internet – as well as 1,000B things» Bob Sutor, IBM

29. Page 29
EDB 2010
From
Desktop to
Mobile to

30. 1.1
1.4
5.0
.. combined
Now there are twice as
many mobile phones
in our world as
TV sets and
PCs …

31. But we are just in the early stages of
the 5th IT wave, The Mobile Internet
Page 31
EDB 2010
Kilde: comScore Global 1/10

32. Page 32
Source: John Batelle, Wired
EDB 2010
Mobile internet will open
new opportunities

34. YouTube–AugmentedRealityoniPhone

35. “Everyware” adding to
a vast sea of information
..every second ..of every hour ..of every day
ST.OLAV HOSPITAL
One of the most modern
hospitals in Europe

36. NUI – Natural User
Interfaces – the
new standard

37. Page 37
EDB 2010

38. Page 38
EDB 2010

39. Page 39
EDB 2010

42. Page 42
EDB 2010

44. ..and movement2 loudspeakers
HD Video
Front camera
5MP camera
UMTS / 3G
Bluetooth, WiFi
2 microphones
HD Screen
Multi Touch
A-GPS
Compass
Sensors for light
..and proximity
..and moisture
Packed with sensors,
the iPhone
…
…
defines the best
practice NUI-platform

45. “Once social change
begins, it cannot be
reversed”
Towards 2020
Cesar Chavez

46. A Rapidly Aging
Population…

47. Source: Finance Dep, Norway
1967: 3.9 workers
per retired person
2003: 2.6 workers
per retired person
2050: 1.6 workers
per retired person

48. Oslo University Hospital is one
of Northern Europe’s largest …
Norway will have to build 6 hospitals
like it to meet the needs from 2020
Source:SINTEF,oct2009

49. ¾ of all
graduates must
begin to work
within the health
care sector
Source: SINTEF,
oct 2009

50. Challenges are
formidable!
To a far greater
extent than today,
public sector
needs to exploit
opportunities
from self service,
automation and
collaboration
#opengov #gov20 #health20
MORE FROM IT.

51. Page 51
EDB 2010
Most sectors are facing extensive
efficiency improvements needs –
and will have to learn from the
banks’ journey of the last decade,
from manual processes to self-
service and automation by default

52. Page 52
EDB 2010
There will be an
increased
competition for
the best minds,
with an IT focus
on Collaboration,
HR & Brand Mgmt

53. Digital Natives
Set the Agenda

54. Keeping up with the Joneses:
The Hunt for Comfort
The Lack of Cash,
Products & Options
*Picture source: Google Image Search

55. The Hunt for
Meaning
The Lack of Trust,
Time & Attention
More informed
More educated
More mobile
Still a ”youngster”
at 30 years, she
demands to be
involved

56. «Bathed in Bits since Birth»
"Growing Up Digital", Don Tapscott

57. …and networking since birth

58. Consumo
Ergo Sum
"People want to be part of
something larger than
themselves. They want to
be part of something they
are really proud of, that
they’ll fight for, sacrifice for,
trust." Howard Schultz, Starbucks

59. “What we sell is the ability for
a 43-year-old accountant to
dress in black leather, ride
through small towns and
have people be afraid of him”
Harley-Davidson
Rather than the
product, they buy
the story

60. Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
They are
the most active
in finding public
information in new
contexts and the
least satisfied with
access as it is
today

61. Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
Never
considered
”cold”, ICT is
their primary
social glue

62. Scenarios
2020
Towards 2020

63. Rebooting Democracy –
A New Model Emerging
Industry
Society
Information
Society
Democracy Represented Participatory
Citizens
Passive
Receivers
Active
Partners
Politics
One-to-many,
Polarised
One-to-One
Needs Oriented
National
State
National,
Mono-cultural
”Glocal”,
Multi-cultural

64. (1) Ensuring
openness &
transparency
(2) Lowering the cost
of government
(3) Cyber-Security
(4) Participatory
democracy
(5) Innovation
The agenda of Obama’s CIO,
Vivek Kundra, points the way forward:

65. more global
more local
morecollective
moreindividual
From ”EDB Digital Public Sector Scenario Planning 2015
My Multimedia Experience Our Online Global Village
My Personal Off-Line Zone Our Local Community

66. Technology alone will not create change
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process CHANGE!
Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process
Vision Incentives Resources Plan & Process
Vision Competencies Resources Plan & Process
Vision Competencies Incentives Plan & Process
Source: APQC
CONFUSION..
CONCERN..
REFUSAL…
FRUSTRATION..
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources DELAYS..

67. «If your only tool is a hammer, every
problem looks like a nail»
Bernard Baruch

68. Page 68
THA
NKS